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The Segregation Effect: How Residential Isolation Shapes Ethnic Minority Representation in England 种族隔离效应:居住隔离如何塑造英国少数民族的代表性
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.1017/S0007123422000606
Selene Campion
Abstract Extant literature argues that ethnic minority representation in plurality systems will benefit from the presence of sizable co-ethnic populations. I argue that the threshold for election depends not only on a minority population's group size but a district's level of segregation. I show that residential segregation can facilitate the increased representation of ethnic minority populations. Contrary to the prevailing literature, however, I find that increased segregation levels in cities with sizable minority populations decrease the percentage of co-ethnics elected to office. I support this argument with evidence from an original dataset on the local representation outcomes of Muslims in England between 2011 and 2021, which covers 434 district council elections. Using threshold modelling, I introduce the concept of the population threshold, above which increases in segregation level decrease Muslim representation. This article contributes to the electoral geography literature on ethnic minority representation.
摘要现存文献认为,多元体系中的少数民族代表性将受益于大量同族人口的存在。我认为,选举的门槛不仅取决于少数族裔人口的群体规模,还取决于一个地区的种族隔离程度。我表明,居住隔离可以促进少数民族人口的代表性增加。然而,与主流文献相反,我发现,在少数民族人口众多的城市,种族隔离水平的提高降低了同种族当选的比例。我用2011年至2021年间英国穆斯林地方代表性结果的原始数据集的证据支持这一论点,该数据集涵盖434个区议会选举。使用阈值模型,我引入了人口阈值的概念,超过阈值,种族隔离水平的增加会降低穆斯林的代表性。本文对少数民族代表性的选举地理学文献作出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Ancestral Kinship and the Origins of Ideology 祖先亲属关系与意识形态的起源
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000709
Neil Fasching, Yphtach Lelkes
Families are not only the first institution ever created, they are also, for most people, the first institution ever encountered. The preindustrial family structure, which was a function of local ecology and cooperation needs, instilled family members with different values, such as trust in strangers and respect for elders. These values passed through generations and, as we show in three studies, impact today's political attitudes and policies. First, using surveys of second-generation immigrants representing roughly 180 ethnicities living in 32 European countries, we show that the tighter kinship structure of a person's ancestors predicts right-wing cultural attitudes. Among those who are less engaged in politics, tighter ancestral kinship structure also predicts left-wing economic attitudes. In a second study, we control for country-level differences by comparing ethnic groups within countries and find that ancestral kinship strength predicts right-wing cultural attitudes but not left-wing economic attitudes. Finally, in a third study, we examine the policy implications of ancestral kinship. We show that stronger country-level ancestral kinship strength also increases anti-LGBT policies and welfare spending. Finally, we examine whether value systems link preindustrial kinship with modern political attitudes. In total, this work indicates that our political beliefs are rooted in the value systems and familial institutions created by our forebears.
家庭不仅是有史以来第一个建立的机构,对大多数人来说,也是第一个遇到的机构。工业化前的家庭结构是当地生态和合作需求的函数,它向家庭成员灌输了不同的价值观,如对陌生人的信任和对长辈的尊重。这些价值观代代相传,正如我们在三项研究中所表明的那样,影响着当今的政治态度和政策。首先,通过对居住在32个欧洲国家的约180个种族的第二代移民的调查,我们发现,一个人祖先更紧密的亲属关系结构预示着右翼文化态度。在那些较少参与政治的人中,更紧密的祖先亲属关系结构也预示着左翼的经济态度。在第二项研究中,我们通过比较国家内部的种族群体来控制国家层面的差异,发现祖先的亲属关系强度可以预测右翼的文化态度,但不能预测左翼的经济态度。最后,在第三项研究中,我们考察了祖先亲属关系的政策含义。我们表明,国家层面更强大的祖先亲属关系也会增加反LGBT政策和福利支出。最后,我们考察了价值体系是否将前工业时代的亲缘关系与现代政治态度联系起来。总的来说,这项工作表明,我们的政治信仰植根于祖先创造的价值体系和家庭制度。
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引用次数: 1
External Threats, Capacity, and Repression: How the Threat of War Affects Political Development and Physical Integrity Rights 外部威胁、能力和镇压:战争威胁如何影响政治发展和人身完整权
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000692
Eugenia Artabe, Samantha Chapa, Lea Sparkman, Patrick E. Shea
How do external threats affect leaders' incentives to repress? We argue that external threats both increase and decrease state repression, but through different causal pathways. Directly, external threats provide leaders with political cover to use repression against political opponents. Indirectly, threats incentivize leaders to augment state capacity, which decreases the likelihood of state repression. To test this argument, we develop a new latent measure of external threat using a Bayesian measurement model. We use mediation analysis to examine the direct and indirect effects of external threats on repression in developing countries from 1980 to 2016. We find that external threats increase government repression directly, but indirectly decrease repression through stronger state capacity. Our findings have implications for how international factors connect to domestic politics to help explain state repression. In addition, our new measure of external threat will help scholars study the consequences of the international threat environment.
外部威胁如何影响领导者的压制动机?我们认为,外部威胁既增加又减少了国家镇压,但通过不同的因果途径。直接地,外部威胁为领导人提供了对政治对手进行镇压的政治掩护。间接地,威胁激励领导人增强国家能力,这降低了国家镇压的可能性。为了验证这一论点,我们使用贝叶斯测量模型开发了一种新的外部威胁潜在测量方法。我们使用中介分析来研究外部威胁对1980年至2016年发展中国家镇压的直接和间接影响。我们发现,外部威胁直接增加了政府的镇压,但通过加强国家能力间接减少了镇压。我们的研究结果暗示了国际因素如何与国内政治联系起来,以帮助解释国家镇压。此外,我们新的外部威胁度量将有助于学者研究国际威胁环境的后果。
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引用次数: 0
The Rush to Personalize: Power Concentration after Failed Coups in Dictatorships 个性化的热潮:独裁政权政变失败后的权力集中
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.1017/S0007123422000655
Joan C. Timoneda, Abel Escribà-Folch, John J. Chin
Abstract How do failed coups influence power personalization in dictatorships? While scholars have studied the mechanisms of personalism in dictatorships in detail, little attention has been paid to the timing and determinants of surges in personalism levels. In this article, we propose that personalism can evolve non-linearly, and show that large, quite rapid increases in personalization by dictators occur after a failed coup attempt. The logic is that failed coups are information-revealing events that provide the dictator with strong motives and ample opportunities to accumulate power. The leader uses this window of opportunity to rapidly consolidate his power at the expense of the ruling coalition. We test the theory using time-series, cross-sectional data on dictatorships in 114 countries in the period between 1946 and 2010. Two placebo tests indicate that disruptive events by regime outsiders – failed assassination attempts and civil war onsets – do not promote the rush to personalize.
失败的政变如何影响独裁政权的权力个人化?虽然学者们已经详细研究了独裁统治中人格主义的机制,但很少有人关注人格主义水平激增的时间和决定因素。在这篇文章中,我们提出个性可以非线性地进化,并表明在政变失败后,独裁者的个性会迅速增加。其逻辑是,失败的政变是揭露信息的事件,为独裁者提供了强大的动机和积累权力的充分机会。这位领导人利用这一机会之窗,以牺牲执政联盟为代价,迅速巩固自己的权力。我们使用1946年至2010年间114个国家独裁统治的时间序列横断面数据来检验这一理论。两项安慰剂试验表明,政权外部的破坏性事件——暗杀未遂和内战爆发——不会促使人们急于将其个人化。
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引用次数: 1
The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions 难民回归的动力:叙利亚难民及其移民意图
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000667
Ala Alrababah, Daniel Masterson, Marine Casalis, Dominik Hangartner, Jeremy Weinstein
Abstract We study the drivers of refugees' decision making about returning home using observational and experimental data from a survey of 3,003 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. We find that the conditions in refugee-hosting countries play a minor role. In contrast, conditions in a refugee's home country are the main drivers of return intentions. Even in the face of hostility and poor living conditions in host countries, refugees are unlikely to return unless the situation at home improves significantly. These results challenge traditional models of decision making about migration, where refugees weigh living conditions in the host and home countries (“push” and “pull” factors). We offer an alternative theoretical framework: a model of threshold-based decision making whereby only once a basic threshold of safety at home is met do refugees compare other factors in the host and home country. We explore some empirical implications of this new perspective using qualitative interviews and quantitative survey data.
摘要本文利用对3003名在黎巴嫩的叙利亚难民的调查数据和实验数据,研究了难民返乡决策的驱动因素。我们发现,难民收容国的条件起着次要作用。相比之下,难民本国的情况是其返回意愿的主要驱动因素。即使面对东道国的敌意和恶劣的生活条件,难民也不太可能返回,除非国内的情况明显改善。这些结果挑战了有关移民的传统决策模式,即难民权衡东道国和原籍国的生活条件(“推”和“拉”因素)。我们提供了另一种理论框架:一种基于阈值的决策模型,只有在达到国内安全的基本阈值后,难民才会比较东道国和母国的其他因素。我们利用定性访谈和定量调查数据探讨了这一新视角的一些实证意义。
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引用次数: 8
How do Voters Form Perceptions of Party Positions? 选民如何形成对政党立场的认知?
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000746
Markus Wagner, Thomas M. Meyer
Political debates are structured by underlying conflict dimensions, such as left-right and economic and cultural ideology, which form the basis for voter choice and party competition. However, we know little about how voters arrive at perceptions of parties' positions on these dimensions. We examine how the emphasis parties place on the different issues that make up a higher-level ideological dimension affects perceptions of their position on that dimension. Using two population-based survey experiments, we present respondents with either short or long statements that communicate the same issue stances. We then test whether the length of statements affects positional perceptions on the higher-level dimension. The empirical results show support for our hypotheses and imply that political parties – and the context in which they compete – can affect their perceived position even if underlying issue stances remain stable.
政治辩论是由潜在的冲突维度构成的,比如左右、经济和文化意识形态,这些构成了选民选择和政党竞争的基础。然而,我们对选民如何在这些方面对政党立场的看法知之甚少。我们研究了各方对构成更高层次意识形态维度的不同问题的重视如何影响人们对其在该维度上的立场的看法。使用两个基于人口的调查实验,我们向受访者提供传达相同问题立场的简短或长篇陈述。然后,我们测试语句的长度是否会影响更高层次上的位置感知。实证结果支持我们的假设,并暗示政党——以及他们竞争的背景——可以影响他们的感知立场,即使基本问题立场保持稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Animosity, Amnesia, or Admiration? Mass Opinion Around the World Toward the Former Colonizer 仇恨,健忘,还是钦佩?世界各地对前殖民者的舆论
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000710
Andy Baker, David Cupery
Nearly all contemporary countries were colonized at some point in their history by a foreign power, but do citizens resent their former metropoles for past colonial abuses? We exploit survey questions in which respondents were asked for their opinion of a named foreign country. Our analyses of responses from over ninety countries yield the surprising finding that today's citizens are more favourable toward their country's former colonizer – by 40 per cent of a standard deviation – than they are toward other countries. Contemporary monadic traits that make former metropoles liked around the world – especially their tendency to be democracies – as well as their relatively high volumes of trade with former colonies explain their popularity among citizens of their former colonies. We also illustrate and describe these patterns in two least-likely cases, Mexico and Zimbabwe. Our findings have important implications for understanding international soft power, an asset about which today's states care deeply.
几乎所有当代国家都曾在其历史上的某个时刻被外国列强殖民,但公民们是否因过去的殖民暴行而憎恨他们以前的大都市?我们利用调查问题,在这些问题中,受访者被问及他们对一个被点名的外国的看法。我们对90多个国家的回应进行了分析,得出了一个令人惊讶的发现,即今天的公民对本国前殖民者的好感度比对其他国家的好感度高出40%的标准差。使前大都市在世界各地受到欢迎的当代单一特征,尤其是它们成为民主国家的趋势,以及它们与前殖民地的相对高贸易量,解释了它们在前殖民地公民中的受欢迎程度。我们还在墨西哥和津巴布韦这两个可能性最小的案例中说明和描述了这些模式。我们的研究结果对理解国际软实力具有重要意义,这是当今国家非常关心的一项资产。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual Replication of Four Key Findings about Factual Corrections and Misinformation during the 2020 US Election: Evidence from Panel-Survey Experiments 关于2020年美国大选期间事实更正和错误信息的四个关键发现的概念复制:来自小组调查实验的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000631
A. Coppock, Kimberly Gross, Ethan Porter, Emily A. Thorson, Thomas J. Wood
In the final two months of the 2020 US election, we conducted eight panel experiments to evaluate the immediate and medium-term effects of misinformation and factual corrections. Our results corroborate four sets of existing findings: fact-checks reliably improve factual accuracy, while misinformation degrades it; effects of fact-checks on belief accuracy endure, though they fade with time; effects on attitudes are minuscule; and there are important partisan asymmetries. We also offer one new empirical finding suggesting that effect heterogeneities by personality type and cognitive style may reflect attention paid to treatments. Our study confirms that the fundamental push and pull of misinformation and factual corrections on political beliefs holds even in electoral settings as saturated with mistruths as the 2020 US election.
在2020年美国大选的最后两个月,我们进行了八项小组实验,以评估错误信息和事实更正的直接和中期影响。我们的结果证实了四组现有的发现:事实核查可靠地提高了事实的准确性,而错误信息则降低了准确性;事实核查对信念准确性的影响持续存在,尽管它们会随着时间的推移而消退;对态度的影响微乎其微;还有重要的党派不对称。我们还提供了一个新的实证发现,表明人格类型和认知风格的效果异质性可能反映了对治疗的关注。我们的研究证实,即使在2020年美国大选这样充斥着错误证据的选举环境中,错误信息和事实修正对政治信仰的根本推动和拉动也是有效的。
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引用次数: 2
Modern Family? The Gendered Effects of Marriage and Childbearing on Voter Turnout 现代家庭?婚姻和生育对选民投票率的性别影响
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-26 DOI: 10.1017/S0007123422000680
G. Bellettini, Carlotta Berti Ceroni, Enrico Cantoni, C. Monfardini, Jerome Schafer
Abstract In many democracies, gender differences in voter turnout have narrowed or even reversed. Yet, it appears that women participate more in some circumstances and men in others. Here we study how life trajectories – specifically, marriage and having children – will impact male and female turnout differently, depending on household-level context. To this end, we leverage a unique administrative panel dataset from Italy, an established democracy where traditional family structures remain important. Our within-individual estimates show that marriage increases men's participation to women's higher pre-marital levels, particularly so in low-income families. We also find that infants depress maternal turnout, especially among more traditional families, whereas primary school children stimulate paternal turnout. Exploring aggregate-level consequences, we show that demographic trends in marriage and fertility have contributed to recent shifts in the gender composition of the electorate. Together, our results highlight the importance of the family as a variable in political analyses.
摘要在许多民主国家,选民投票率的性别差异已经缩小甚至逆转。然而,在某些情况下,女性的参与度似乎更高,而在其他情况下,男性的参与度则更高。在这里,我们研究了生活轨迹——特别是婚姻和生育——将如何根据家庭层面的背景对男性和女性投票率产生不同的影响。为此,我们利用了来自意大利的一个独特的行政小组数据集,意大利是一个传统家庭结构仍然重要的民主国家。我们的个人内部估计表明,婚姻使男性的参与度提高到女性的婚前水平,尤其是在低收入家庭。我们还发现,婴儿降低了母亲的投票率,尤其是在更传统的家庭中,而小学儿童则刺激了父亲的投票率。通过探究总体水平的影响,我们发现,婚姻和生育率的人口趋势促成了选民性别构成的近期变化。总之,我们的研究结果突出了家庭作为政治分析变量的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
When Censorship Works: Exploring the Resilience of News Websites to Online Censorship 当审查工作:探索新闻网站对在线审查的弹性
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-25 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123422000722
Philipp M. Lutscher
To what degree are news websites in autocracies resilient to online censorship? I explore this question in Egypt, which has begun to heavily censor news websites in recent years, alongside several other autocracies. Relying on a sample of 145 news outlets, I systematically explore how blocking affects traffic on outlets and their current statuses. Statistical tests show that blocked Egyptian outlets lost on average 54–55 per cent of their global traffic and are more likely to halt their activity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the loss in traffic was particularly strong for independent, Islamist opposition and larger outlets, and that permanently blocked websites were substantially more likely to halt services. These results support previous work on state repression and information control showing that censorship often works in reducing the consumption and provision of alternative political information.
专制国家的新闻网站在多大程度上能够抵御网络审查?我在埃及探讨这个问题,埃及近年来与其他几个独裁国家一起开始对新闻网站进行严格审查。基于145家新闻媒体的样本,我系统地探讨了阻塞如何影响媒体的流量及其当前状态。统计测试显示,被封锁的埃及门店平均损失了全球流量的54%至55%,更有可能停止其活动。异质性分析显示,对于独立的伊斯兰反对派和大型媒体来说,流量损失尤其严重,永久屏蔽的网站更有可能停止服务。这些结果支持了之前关于国家镇压和信息控制的研究,表明审查制度通常能减少替代政治信息的消费和提供。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
British Journal of Political Science
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