International Economic Review最新文献

Based on agent opinion analysis theory, Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a framework for combining predictive distributions in the face of model uncertainty. In this article, we generalize existing parametric implementations of BPS by showing how to combine competing probabilistic forecasts using interpretable Bayesian tree-based machine learning methods. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach—in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability—via two macroeconomic forecasting applications. The first uses density forecasts for GDP growth from the euro area's Survey of Professional Forecasters. The second combines density forecasts of U.S. inflation produced by many simple regression models.

We examine the aggregate and distributional effects of raising the top marginal income tax rate in the presence of entrepreneurial tax avoidance. In a model with heterogeneous agents and occupational choice, entrepreneurs can avoid taxes by choosing the legal form of business organization and shifting income across tax bases. Applied to the U.S. economy, we find that tax avoidance weakens the distortionary effects of higher income taxes at the top but makes them ineffective at lowering inequality. Eliminating tax avoidance by an equal tax treatment of entrepreneurs across all legal forms substantially increases tax revenue, aggregate output, and welfare.

We study how do-or-die threats ending negotiations affect gridlock and welfare when two opposing parties bargain. Failure to agree on a deal in any period implies a continuation of the negotiation. However, under brinkmanship, agreement failure in any period may precipitate a crisis with a small chance. In equilibrium, such brinkmanship threats improve the probability of an agreement, but also increase the risk of crisis. Brinkmanship reduces welfare when one might think it is most needed: severe gridlock. In this case, despite this global welfare loss, a party has incentives to use brinkmanship strategically to obtain a favorable bargaining position.

We develop a theory of optimal income and education taxation under asymmetric information between firms and workers. Our results show that a max–min optimal tax code can achieve predistribution by pooling wages across ability levels, conditional on income. We identify conditions under which the optimal solution leads to pooling or separating equilibria, highlighting bidirectional incentive constraints. Implementation requires nonlinear income taxes coupled with education subsidies or mandates. Predistribution is only feasible when income taxes are complemented by policies that restrict signaling opportunities. Our framework provides new insights into reducing wage inequality through optimal tax policy and labor market information management.

We develop a model that features costly market segmentation and financial repression to link domestic and external sovereign debt with default. In a financially repressed economy, a government that exploits its market power in the domestic economy can also increase its external debt capacity, owing to a novel, additional endogenous cost of default. A government forfeits the gains from trading in segmented debt markets when it defaults. Among other empirical regularities, our model can account for the heterogeneity in sovereign debt levels of nonadvanced economies, based on their level of financial development.

In this article, I study the optimality of differential asset taxation in an environment with entrepreneurs and workers in which output is stochastic and entrepreneurs can misreport profits and abscond with capital. I show that a stationary efficient allocation may be implemented as an equilibrium with endogenous collateral constraints, transfers to newborns, and linear taxes on profits, investment, and interest. Furthermore, these taxes differ from one another and serve distinct purposes. The profits tax shares risk and depends solely on the severity of the misreporting friction, whereas the remaining instruments determine the efficient mean and variance of entrepreneurs' consumption growth.