Journal of Money Credit and Banking最新文献

We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database, covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find the effect of credit supply to be asymmetric: contractions harm TFP growth, halting productivity-enhancing activities; positive credit supply shocks have limited effects. This points toward a role of financial stability in preserving productivity growth.

We show that macroprudential regulation significantly dampens the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. Specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to capital flow shocks and movements in the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX. A broad set of macroprudential tools contributes to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation enhances macro-economic stability. We do not find evidence that capital controls provide similar benefits.

While credit cards provide transaction services, they have never been included in measures of money supply. We derive the theory to measure the joint services of credit cards and money and propose two measures of their joint services: one based on microeconomic structural aggregation theory, providing an aggregated variable within the macroeconomy; the other a credit-card-extended aggregate, optimized as an indicator to capture the contributions of monetary and credit card as nowcasting indicator of nominal GDP. The inclusion of the new aggregates yields substantially more accurate nowcasts of nominal GDP, illustrating the usefulness of the information contained in credit cards.

At the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level-$�k$ thinking, a form of bounded rationality formalized by García-Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2019), consistent with experimental evidence. This process does not lead to a number of puzzling features from rational expectations models, such as the reversal puzzle, or implausible large fiscal multipliers. Optimal monetary policy at the ZLB under level-$�k$ thinking prescribes keeping the nominal rate lower for longer, but short-run macro-economic stabilization is less powerful compared to rational expectations.

We study the role of the size distribution of the banking sector for bailout policy and financial fragility in a model of financial intermediation with limited commitment and noisy sunspots. In particular, due to the different costs of mitigating depositors' losses, differences in financial fragility arise endogenously in the sense that the large banking market admits a higher degree of instability. Moreover, the desire to reduce differences in the amount of bailout funding across segments of the banking system leads the fiscal authority to collect less taxes ex-ante but ends up rendering the scope for run equilibria larger.