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Dynamic Bayesian Network–Based Product Recommendation Considering Consumers’ Multistage Shopping Journeys: A Marketing Funnel Perspective 考虑消费者多阶段购物旅程的动态贝叶斯网络产品推荐:营销漏斗视角
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2020.0277
Qiang Wei, Yao Mu, Xunhua Guo, Weijie Jiang, Guoqing Chen
Recommender systems are widely used by platforms/merchants to find the products that are likely to interest consumers. However, existing dynamic methods still face challenges with regard to diverse behaviors, variability in interest shifts, and the identification of psychological dynamics. Premised on the marketing funnel perspective to analyze consumer shopping journeys, this study proposes a novel and effective machine learning approach for product recommendation, namely, multi-stage dynamic Bayesian network (MS-DBN), which models the generative processes of consumers’ interactive behaviors with products in light of their stage transitions and interest shifts. In this way, consumers’ stage-interest-behavior dynamics can be learnt, especially the variability in interest shifts. This provides managerial implications for practice. MS-DBN demonstrates significant performance advantage with general applicability by extracting the generalizable regularity during shopping journeys, which compensates the diversity and sparsity frequently observed in consumer behaviors. In addition, aided by the identification strategies integrated into the learning process, the latent variables in the model can be detected such that consumers’ invisible psychological stages and interests in products can be identified from their observed behaviors, shedding light on the targeted marketing of platforms/merchants and thus enriching the practical value of the approach.
推荐系统被平台/商家广泛用于寻找可能引起消费者兴趣的产品。然而,现有的动态方法在行为的多样性、兴趣转移的可变性以及心理动态的识别等方面仍然面临挑战。本研究以营销漏斗视角分析消费者购物过程为前提,提出了一种新颖有效的产品推荐机器学习方法——多阶段动态贝叶斯网络(MS-DBN),该方法根据消费者的阶段转换和兴趣转移,对消费者与产品互动行为的生成过程进行建模。通过这种方式,可以了解消费者的阶段-兴趣-行为动态,特别是兴趣转移的可变性。这为实践提供了管理意义。MS-DBN通过提取购物过程中的可推广规律,弥补了消费者行为中经常观察到的多样性和稀疏性,显示出显著的性能优势和普遍适用性。此外,通过融入学习过程的识别策略,可以检测模型中的潜在变量,从消费者观察到的行为中识别消费者看不见的心理阶段和对产品的兴趣,为平台/商家的针对性营销提供指导,从而丰富该方法的实用价值。
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引用次数: 0
When Sharing Economy Meets Traditional Business: Coopetition Between Ride-Sharing Platforms and Car-Rental Firms 当共享经济遇上传统商业:共享出行平台与汽车租赁公司的合作
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2022.0011
Chenglong Zhang, Jianqing Chen, Srinivasan Raghunathan
Coopetition has been a common practice, especially among emerging markets. The coopetition relationship between a ride-sharing platform and a car-rental firm is distinct in that they operate under two different business models. Although the platform controls both its demand and supply by setting rider prices and driver wages, the car-rental firm operates under the traditional model with a fixed supply and cost structure. Both the platform and car-rental firm compete for riders seeking transportation. If the two cooperate, a driver is allowed to rent from the rental firm and drive for the platform; otherwise, only those owning personal vehicles are allowed to drive for the platform. We show that such supply-side cooperation intensifies demand-side price competition and decreases total revenue. Therefore, coopetition is mutually beneficial only when it leads to a significant decrease in supply costs. We find that the two firms are likely to form a coopetition relationship when the total rider market size is not high, the degree of rider substitutability between the two firms is low, and the platform has a significant market-size advantage over the rental firm. Coopetition between the platform and the rental firm benefits riders and hurts drivers, but it benefits society overall.
合作一直是一种普遍做法,尤其是在新兴市场中。共享出行平台和汽车租赁公司之间的合作关系是截然不同的,因为它们在两种不同的商业模式下运作。虽然该平台通过设定乘客价格和司机工资来控制其需求和供给,但该租车公司在传统模式下运营,具有固定的供应和成本结构。打车平台和租车公司都在争夺想要搭车的乘客。如果两者合作,则允许一名司机从租赁公司租赁并为平台驾驶;否则,只有拥有私家车的人才可以使用该平台。研究表明,供给侧的合作加剧了需求侧的价格竞争,降低了总收入。因此,只有当合作导致供应成本显著降低时,合作才是互利的。我们发现,当总骑手市场规模不高,两家公司之间的骑手可替代性程度较低,平台对租赁公司具有显著的市场规模优势时,两家公司很可能形成合作关系。平台和租赁公司之间的合作对乘客有利,对司机不利,但对整个社会有利。
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引用次数: 0
Consequences of China’s 2018 Online Lending Regulation and the Promise of PolicyTech 中国2018年网络借贷监管的后果和政策科技的承诺
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2021.0580
Yidi Liu, Xin Li, Zhiqiang (Eric) Zheng
Swift and unexpected shifts of financial regulations can have profound implications for the general population. This is evidenced by China’s abrupt transition in its stance on P2P lending in 2018. Initially embracing these platforms, the abrupt regulatory pivot to widespread shutdowns. Our empirical research, drawing upon credit application data, demonstrates how this indiscriminate approach hindered economic development opportunities for a significant portion of borrowers, particularly the underprivileged. As a remedy, we advocate for the implementation of AI-driven regulatory frameworks. Rather than a monolithic approach to all borrowers, AI helps distinguish between real financial risks and those that can be managed. This nuanced strategy safeguards individuals’ economic progression, while efficiently mitigating financial hazards. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, our findings underscore the importance of contemplating the broader ramifications of regulatory decisions and harnessing innovative methodologies, such as AI, to strike an optimal balance.
金融监管的迅速和意外变化可能对普通民众产生深远影响。2018年中国在P2P网贷问题上立场的突然转变就证明了这一点。起初,监管机构支持这些平台,但突然转向大范围关闭。我们根据信贷申请数据进行的实证研究表明,这种不分青红皂白的做法阻碍了很大一部分借款人(尤其是贫困群体)的经济发展机会。作为补救措施,我们主张实施人工智能驱动的监管框架。人工智能不是针对所有借款人的单一方法,而是帮助区分真正的金融风险和那些可以管理的风险。这种微妙的策略保障了个人的经济发展,同时有效地降低了金融风险。对于政策制定者和行业利益相关者来说,我们的研究结果强调了考虑监管决策的更广泛影响和利用创新方法(如人工智能)来实现最佳平衡的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
The Performative Production of Trace Data in Knowledge Work 知识工作中痕量数据的绩效生产
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2019.0357
Aleksi Aaltonen, Marta Stelmaszak
Firms increasingly harness data that are created as by-products of information systems usage to evaluate and manage employees. However, such “trace data” can be a double-edged sword. The data can provide a whole new visibility into work practices but also, make work less transparent if the employees start to change their behavior to shape the data. We study this dilemma in the context of knowledge work that has traditionally eluded behavioral measurement. We show that when knowledge workers become aware of data collection and have an interest in how their work may be represented by the data, they start to actively perform the data. We identify different patterns by which employees shape work practices to produce trace data. The changes affect not only the actions and data of the focal employee but also, the actions and data of their colleagues and subordinates. Therefore, to fully realize the potential of trace data, managers may need to get involved in designing the data and to set a trace data policy that states how the data will be used in the organization.
公司越来越多地利用作为信息系统使用的副产品而产生的数据来评估和管理员工。然而,这种“跟踪数据”可能是一把双刃剑。这些数据可以为工作实践提供一个全新的可见性,但如果员工开始改变他们的行为来塑造数据,那么工作就不那么透明了。我们在传统上逃避行为测量的知识工作背景下研究这一困境。我们表明,当知识工作者意识到数据收集并对数据如何表示他们的工作感兴趣时,他们就会开始积极地执行数据。我们识别不同的模式,员工通过这些模式塑造工作实践来产生跟踪数据。这种变化不仅影响焦点员工的行为和数据,也影响其同事和下属的行为和数据。因此,为了充分实现跟踪数据的潜力,管理人员可能需要参与设计数据,并设置跟踪数据策略,该策略说明数据将如何在组织中使用。
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引用次数: 0
Does Help Help? An Empirical Analysis of Social Desirability Bias in Ratings 帮助有帮助吗?评分中社会可取性偏差的实证分析
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2020.0406
Jinyang Zheng, Yong Tan, Guopeng Yin, Jianing Ding
Review-in-review (RIR) is a feature that allows viewers to generate positive or negative evaluations for primary quality evaluations of a product (e.g., ratings and reviews). This study reveals that it can cause social desirability bias in primary ratings: Reviewers who desire social recognition are driven to adjust their ratings (about 7.4% likelihood) to elicit more helpful responses and avoid unhelpful ones. This bias can be shown as distorted conformity to the prior rating distribution or extremity, depending on the RIR types. The model identifies how bias magnitude correlates with users’ social characteristics, thereby identifying vulnerable individuals. Platforms can incentivize less vulnerable users and remind susceptible ones to decrease the bias and can supplement rating conditional on the identified vulnerability extent (e.g., the distribution by the “independent” raters) to mitigate the bias’s impact on rating viewers. The simulation analysis compares the bias under different counterfactual RIR system designs, finding a composite RIR system (e.g., helpful and unhelpful RIRs) partially neutralizes the bias, obviating the need to remove all RIR features. The model further adapts to evaluate underexplored RIRs forms and can provide a “de-biased” metric while preserving individual ratings.
Review-in-review (RIR)是一种允许查看者对产品的主要质量评估(例如,评级和评论)产生正面或负面评价的功能。本研究表明,它会在初级评分中引起社会期望偏差:渴望社会认可的评论者会被驱使调整他们的评分(约7.4%的可能性),以引出更多有益的反应,避免有害的反应。根据RIR类型的不同,这种偏差可以表现为与先前评级分布或极值的扭曲一致性。该模型确定了偏见大小如何与用户的社会特征相关,从而识别出弱势群体。平台可以激励弱势用户并提醒弱势用户减少偏见,可以根据识别出的脆弱性程度(例如“独立”评分者的分布)补充评级,以减轻偏见对评分者的影响。仿真分析比较了不同反事实RIR系统设计下的偏差,发现复合RIR系统(例如,有用和无用的RIR)部分中和了偏差,从而避免了去除所有RIR特征的需要。该模型进一步适应于评估未充分开发的rir形式,并可以在保留个人评级的同时提供“去偏见”度量。
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引用次数: 0
Chilling Effect of the Enforcement of Computer Misuse Act: Evidence from Publicly Accessible Hack Forums 执行计算机滥用法案的寒蝉效应:来自公开访问黑客论坛的证据
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2019.0346
Qiu-Hong Wang, Ruibin Geng, Seung Hyun Kim
To reduce the availability of hacking tools for use in cybersecurity offenses, many countries have enacted computer misuse acts (CMA) that criminalize the production, distribution, and possession of such tools with criminal intent. Nevertheless, our research illuminates an unintended consequence: the chilling effect of CMA enforcement on legitimate cybersecurity discussions, some of which may be desirable for cybersecurity research, within online hack forums. More importantly, this study uniquely examines the chilling effect stemming from users’ fear of legal harm. Drawing on decision-making theories related to choice under uncertainty, we derive new insights into how legal enforcement can suppress lawful acts and reveal the dynamics of social categorization online. Our research offers valuable insights for policymakers and forum administrators. Policymakers can use our findings to mitigate unnecessary uncertainty in legal enforcement such as CMA. This includes developing legal cases to prevent false prosecutions, implementing tailored communication strategies for inexperienced individuals, and considering supplementary measures like licensing and community recognition. A transparent mechanism involving a neutral panel can also be established to ensure legal interpretations align with community norms. Forum administrators, on the other hand, can provide additional information and guidelines, foster responsible online environments, and align resources with professional standards to navigate the uncertain legal landscape and mitigate the chilling effect on knowledge-sharing.
为了减少用于网络安全犯罪的黑客工具的可用性,许多国家颁布了计算机滥用法(CMA),将具有犯罪意图的生产、分发和拥有此类工具定为刑事犯罪。然而,我们的研究揭示了一个意想不到的后果:CMA的实施对在线黑客论坛中合法的网络安全讨论产生了寒蝉效应,其中一些讨论可能对网络安全研究是可取的。更重要的是,这项研究独特地考察了用户对法律伤害的恐惧所产生的寒蝉效应。利用与不确定性下选择相关的决策理论,我们获得了执法如何抑制合法行为的新见解,并揭示了在线社会分类的动态。我们的研究为政策制定者和论坛管理者提供了有价值的见解。政策制定者可以利用我们的研究结果来减轻CMA等执法过程中不必要的不确定性。这包括制定法律案例以防止虚假起诉,为缺乏经验的个人实施量身定制的沟通策略,以及考虑诸如许可和社区认可等补充措施。还可以建立一个涉及中立小组的透明机制,以确保法律解释符合社区规范。另一方面,论坛管理员可以提供额外的信息和指导方针,培育负责任的在线环境,并使资源与专业标准保持一致,以应对不确定的法律环境,减轻对知识共享的寒蝉效应。
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引用次数: 0
Consequences of Information Feed Integration on User Engagement and Contribution: A Natural Experiment in an Online Knowledge-Sharing Community 信息源集成对用户参与和贡献的影响:在线知识共享社区的自然实验
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2022.0043
Zike Cao, Yingpeng Zhu, Gen Li, Liangfei Qiu
This paper investigates the ramifications of information feed integration on user engagements and contributions in online content-sharing platforms by exploiting a natural experiment occurred in a leading knowledge-sharing platform that integrated informal social posts with professional knowledge content in one feed. Our results show that the juxtaposition of incongruous types of content increased mindset switching and cognitive strain, thus hurting user engagements. We also reveal a novel crowding-out effect, viz., the integration heightened concerns that posting informal social posts would dilute the contributor’s professional image, thus inhibiting user contributions. Our findings hold important practical implications for all platforms that host (or are considering hosting) diverse types of user-generated content (UGC). Additional content curation tools can potentially enhance user engagement and retention, but their effectiveness hinges on a foundational and crucial element—the presentation format of heterogeneous content types. Essentially, the value of curating informal social posts in a knowledge-sharing platform would diminish when those content intrudes upon and conflict with the professional domain. This insight underscores that any UGC platforms, when adopting a diversity-oriented strategy, should pay close attention to heterogeneity between different content types for the purpose of optimizing user experiences and promoting user contributions.
本文通过在一个领先的知识共享平台上进行的自然实验,研究了信息源集成对在线内容共享平台中用户参与度和贡献的影响,该平台将非正式社交帖子与专业知识内容集成在一个信息源中。我们的研究结果表明,不协调类型的内容并置会增加思维转换和认知压力,从而损害用户粘性。我们还发现了一种新的挤出效应,即整合加剧了人们的担忧,即发布非正式的社交帖子会稀释贡献者的专业形象,从而抑制用户的贡献。我们的研究结果对所有托管(或正在考虑托管)不同类型用户生成内容(UGC)的平台具有重要的实际意义。额外的内容管理工具可以潜在地提高用户参与度和留存率,但它们的有效性取决于一个基本和关键的因素——异构内容类型的表示格式。从本质上讲,在知识共享平台上管理非正式社交帖子的价值将在这些内容侵入专业领域并与之冲突时减少。这一观点强调,任何UGC平台在采取多元化战略时,都应密切关注不同内容类型之间的异质性,以优化用户体验,促进用户贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Clocking in or Not? Optimal Design of a Novel Gamified Business Model in Online Learning 打卡还是不打卡?在线学习中一种新型游戏化商业模式的优化设计
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2021.0138
Yi Gao, Subodha Kumar, Dengpan Liu
Clocking-in cash-back (CIC), an emerging gamified business model in online learning, has recently garnered significant attention. CIC allows users to secure a full refund of the course fee through consecutive completion of specific tasks within a required time window. These tasks, known as clocking in, encompass activities such as daily assignments and sharing progress updates on social media. By employing this gamification system, the firm effectively monitors user efforts, categorizing them as winners or quitters based on clocking-in completion. In this paper, we examine how a firm should set the optimal time window for its course and how the time window is affected by context-specific factors. We identify two opposing effects associated with extending the time window on users’ quitting time: the psychological disutility increasing effect (negative) and the effort cost decreasing effect (positive). Our results indicate that, as quitters’ positive word-of-mouth effects increase, there are cases in which the firm should opt for shortening the time window. Additionally, we find that, as the marginal content creation cost rises, the firm may find it more advantageous to raise the difficulty level by shortening the time window. Our findings provide valuable insights that online learning firms can utilize to enhance their design of the CIC mechanism.
最近,在线学习领域一种新兴的游戏化商业模式——现金返还(CIC)引起了人们的极大关注。CIC允许用户通过在规定的时间内连续完成特定任务来获得全额退款。这些任务被称为打卡,包括日常任务和在社交媒体上分享进度更新等活动。通过使用这种游戏化系统,该公司有效地监控用户的努力,根据完成时间将他们分类为赢家或放弃者。在本文中,我们研究了企业应该如何为其过程设置最佳时间窗口,以及时间窗口如何受到特定环境因素的影响。我们确定了与延长时间窗口有关的两种相反的效应:心理负效用增加效应(负)和努力成本降低效应(正)。我们的研究结果表明,随着戒烟者的正面口碑效应的增加,在某些情况下,公司应该选择缩短时间窗口。此外,我们发现,随着边际内容创造成本的上升,企业可能会发现通过缩短时间窗口来提高难度水平更有利。我们的研究结果提供了有价值的见解,在线学习公司可以利用它来改进其CIC机制的设计。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Joint Assortment for an Omni-Channel Retailer 全渠道零售商的最优联合分类
IF 4.9 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2021.0596
A. Sapra, Subodha Kumar
With the growing popularity of e-commerce, nearly every prominent retailer is aiming to turn omni-channel. One crucial decision in this pursuit is the identification of the joint assortment. In this study, we contribute by examining joint assortment and product prices for a retailer that sells products through both brick-and-mortar and online channels. Our analysis indicates that the optimal assortment should be thought of as a portfolio of two types of products: customized and omni-channel. Customized products are priced in such a way that they are targeted toward customers who prefer to shop from the channel the products are sold through. In contrast, omni-channel products are priced attractively so that all customers consider buying them. The relative mix of these products depends on how flexible customers are in shopping from the channel they do not prefer and the number of customers who prefer each channel. Additionally, we investigate whether the conventional wisdom of selling niche products through the online channel is always optimal. We find that this suggestion may be sub-optimal when the online channel has greater cost of including a product in the assortment and fewer preferring customers compared with the brick-and-mortar channel.
随着电子商务的日益普及,几乎所有的知名零售商都打算转向全渠道。在这一过程中,一个至关重要的决定是确定联合分类。在这项研究中,我们通过研究通过实体和在线渠道销售产品的零售商的联合分类和产品价格来做出贡献。我们的分析表明,最优的分类应该被认为是两种类型的产品组合:定制和全渠道。定制产品的定价方式是针对那些喜欢从产品销售渠道购物的客户。相比之下,全渠道产品的价格很有吸引力,所有顾客都会考虑购买。这些产品的相对组合取决于顾客从他们不喜欢的渠道购物的灵活性,以及喜欢每个渠道的顾客数量。此外,我们调查了通过在线渠道销售利基产品的传统智慧是否总是最佳的。我们发现,与实体渠道相比,当在线渠道在分类中包含产品的成本更高,更喜欢的客户更少时,这种建议可能是次优的。
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引用次数: 0
Proactive Resource Request for Disaster Response: A Deep Learning-Based Optimization Model 灾难响应的主动资源请求:基于深度学习的优化模型
3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1287/isre.2022.0125
Hongzhe Zhang, Xiaohang Zhao, Xiao Fang, Bintong Chen
In the realm of disaster response operations, effective resource management is crucial. This research introduces an innovative approach that proactively determines the optimal quantities of resources that should be requested by local agencies. This determination is based on both current and anticipated demands, thereby ensuring a more efficient and effective response to disasters. The approach first utilizes a method that combines deep learning and temporal point process for predicting irregularly spaced future demands, and then, it formulates the resource allocation problem faced with randomly arrived demands as a stochastic optimization model. The superiority of this approach over existing resource allocation methods is demonstrated using both real-world data and simulated scenarios. The findings highlight the need for a shift from reactive to proactive strategies. Moreover, the research emphasizes the potential of advanced techniques, such as deep learning and stochastic optimization, in disaster management. These techniques can provide valuable tools for policy makers and practitioners in the field, enabling them to make more informed and effective decisions. Policies that encourage the adoption of such optimized resource allocation strategies could lead to more effective disaster response operations.
在救灾行动领域,有效的资源管理至关重要。本研究引入了一种创新的方法,主动确定当地机构应要求的最优资源数量。这一决定是根据目前和预期的需求作出的,从而确保对灾害作出更有效率和更有效的反应。该方法首先利用深度学习和时间点过程相结合的方法来预测未来需求的不规则间隔,然后将随机到达的需求所面临的资源分配问题表述为随机优化模型。该方法优于现有的资源分配方法,并通过实际数据和模拟场景进行了论证。研究结果强调了从被动策略向主动策略转变的必要性。此外,该研究还强调了深度学习和随机优化等先进技术在灾害管理中的潜力。这些技术可以为该领域的决策者和从业人员提供有价值的工具,使他们能够做出更明智和更有效的决策。鼓励采用这种优化资源分配战略的政策可导致更有效的救灾行动。
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引用次数: 0
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Information Systems Research
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