Abstract I measure the economic effects of greenbelts that prohibit new construction beyond a predefined urban fringe and therefore act as urban growth boundaries. I focus on England, where $13%$ of the land is designated as greenbelt land. I provide reduced-form evidence and estimate a quantitative equilibrium model that includes amenities, housing supply, a traffic congestion externality, agglomeration forces, productivity, and household location choices. Greenbelt policy generates positive amenity effects, but also strongly reduces housing supply. I find that greenbelts increase welfare because amenity effects are sufficiently strong. At the same time, however, greenbelts decrease housing affordability by limiting housing supply.
{"title":"The Welfare Effects of Greenbelt Policy: Evidence from England","authors":"Hans R A Koster","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead077","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I measure the economic effects of greenbelts that prohibit new construction beyond a predefined urban fringe and therefore act as urban growth boundaries. I focus on England, where $13%$ of the land is designated as greenbelt land. I provide reduced-form evidence and estimate a quantitative equilibrium model that includes amenities, housing supply, a traffic congestion externality, agglomeration forces, productivity, and household location choices. Greenbelt policy generates positive amenity effects, but also strongly reduces housing supply. I find that greenbelts increase welfare because amenity effects are sufficiently strong. At the same time, however, greenbelts decrease housing affordability by limiting housing supply.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135207033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Venke Furre Haaland, Mari Rege, Oddny Judith Solheim
Abstract We present a field experiment investigating treatment effects of an additional teacher in the classroom on student learning. The treatment targets literacy instruction during first and second grades. Nearly 6,000 students in 300 classrooms participated in the experiment. The treatment has on average no effects on student learning. However, boys seem to benefit, with treatment impacts of about 0.12 and 0.09 standard deviations on the national literacy assessment and the reading self-concept, respectively. The effects seem to be particularly large for boys with low skills at baseline, with treatment impacts of 0.23 and 0.22 standard deviations.
{"title":"Do students learn more with an additional teacher in the classroom? Evidence from a field experiment [Effects of an additional teacher]","authors":"Venke Furre Haaland, Mari Rege, Oddny Judith Solheim","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead074","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a field experiment investigating treatment effects of an additional teacher in the classroom on student learning. The treatment targets literacy instruction during first and second grades. Nearly 6,000 students in 300 classrooms participated in the experiment. The treatment has on average no effects on student learning. However, boys seem to benefit, with treatment impacts of about 0.12 and 0.09 standard deviations on the national literacy assessment and the reading self-concept, respectively. The effects seem to be particularly large for boys with low skills at baseline, with treatment impacts of 0.23 and 0.22 standard deviations.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135551921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vellore Arthi, Markus Lampe, Ashwin Nair, Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke
Abstract What is the role of trade policy in promoting intra-Empire trade? We address the question in the context of interwar India, whose trade policies have been accused of harming British export interests. We quantify the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade policies and imports for 114 commodity categories coming from 42 countries. We find that even though Indian protection lowered total imports, it substantially boosted imports from the UK. Despite the rising tariff barriers facing British exporters, trade diversion from other countries ensured that Indian trade policy benefited them overall.
{"title":"Deliberate Surrender? the Impact of Interwar Indian Protection","authors":"Vellore Arthi, Markus Lampe, Ashwin Nair, Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead073","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract What is the role of trade policy in promoting intra-Empire trade? We address the question in the context of interwar India, whose trade policies have been accused of harming British export interests. We quantify the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade policies and imports for 114 commodity categories coming from 42 countries. We find that even though Indian protection lowered total imports, it substantially boosted imports from the UK. Despite the rising tariff barriers facing British exporters, trade diversion from other countries ensured that Indian trade policy benefited them overall.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135690065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract To analyse the evolution of the effects of quantitative easing (QE) and tightening (QT) across consecutive announcements, we focus on their unexpected component. Treasury yield sensitivities to QT supply surprises are on average larger than sensitivities to QE surprises, implying supply effects did not diminish during periods of market calm amid economic expansion. Yield sensitivities to later QE and QT surprises do not fall monotonically, thus supply shocks seemed to remain powerful. Finally, yield sensitivities are amplified by the amount of interest-rate uncertainty prevailing before announcements, implying that turning points in the balance sheet policy tended to elicit larger reactions.
{"title":"Unexpected Supply Effects of Quantitative Easing and Tightening","authors":"Stefania D’Amico, Tim Seida","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead071","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To analyse the evolution of the effects of quantitative easing (QE) and tightening (QT) across consecutive announcements, we focus on their unexpected component. Treasury yield sensitivities to QT supply surprises are on average larger than sensitivities to QE surprises, implying supply effects did not diminish during periods of market calm amid economic expansion. Yield sensitivities to later QE and QT surprises do not fall monotonically, thus supply shocks seemed to remain powerful. Finally, yield sensitivities are amplified by the amount of interest-rate uncertainty prevailing before announcements, implying that turning points in the balance sheet policy tended to elicit larger reactions.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135826680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Margarita Leib, Nils Köbis, Rainer Michael Rilke, Marloes Hagens, Bernd Irlenbusch
Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly becomes an indispensable advisor. New ethical concerns arise if AI persuades people to behave dishonestly. In an experiment, we study how AI advice (generated by a Natural-Language-Processing algorithm) affects (dis)honesty, compare it to equivalent human advice, and test whether transparency about advice source matters. We find that dishonesty-promoting advice increases dishonesty, whereas honesty-promoting advice does not increase honesty. This is the case for both AI- and human advice. Algorithmic transparency, a commonly proposed policy to mitigate AI risks, does not affect behaviour. The findings mark the first steps towards managing AI advice responsibly.
{"title":"Corrupted by Algorithms? How AI-Generated and Human-Written Advice Shape (DIS)Honesty","authors":"Margarita Leib, Nils Köbis, Rainer Michael Rilke, Marloes Hagens, Bernd Irlenbusch","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead056","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly becomes an indispensable advisor. New ethical concerns arise if AI persuades people to behave dishonestly. In an experiment, we study how AI advice (generated by a Natural-Language-Processing algorithm) affects (dis)honesty, compare it to equivalent human advice, and test whether transparency about advice source matters. We find that dishonesty-promoting advice increases dishonesty, whereas honesty-promoting advice does not increase honesty. This is the case for both AI- and human advice. Algorithmic transparency, a commonly proposed policy to mitigate AI risks, does not affect behaviour. The findings mark the first steps towards managing AI advice responsibly.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136024307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
{"title":"Trade shocks, labour markets and migration in the First Globalisation","authors":"Richard Bräuer, Felix Kersting","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead068","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135098286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anna Bindler, Randi Hjalmarsson, Nadine Ketel, Andreea Mitrut
Abstract Dutch victimisation rates increase by 9%–15% immediately upon reaching ages 16 and 18. We disentangle the role of the many rights granted at these ages using offence location data, cross-cohort variation in the minimum legal drinking age driven by a 2014 reform and survey data of alcohol/drug consumption and mobility behaviours. We conclude that access to weak alcohol, bars/clubs and smoking increases victimisation at 16 and that age-18 rights (hard alcohol, marijuana coffee shops) exacerbate this risk; vehicle access does not play an important role. We find no evidence of systematic spillovers onto individuals still ineligible for these rights.
{"title":"Discontinuities in the Age-Victimization Profile and the Determinants of Victimization","authors":"Anna Bindler, Randi Hjalmarsson, Nadine Ketel, Andreea Mitrut","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead070","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Dutch victimisation rates increase by 9%–15% immediately upon reaching ages 16 and 18. We disentangle the role of the many rights granted at these ages using offence location data, cross-cohort variation in the minimum legal drinking age driven by a 2014 reform and survey data of alcohol/drug consumption and mobility behaviours. We conclude that access to weak alcohol, bars/clubs and smoking increases victimisation at 16 and that age-18 rights (hard alcohol, marijuana coffee shops) exacerbate this risk; vehicle access does not play an important role. We find no evidence of systematic spillovers onto individuals still ineligible for these rights.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135236371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-25eCollection Date: 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead069
David Autor, David Figlio, Krzysztof Karbownik, Jeffrey Roth, Melanie Wasserman
We document that the female advantage in childhood behavioural and academic outcomes is driven by gender gaps at the extremes of the outcome distribution. Using unconditional quantile regression, we show that family socioeconomic status particularly influences boys' relative to girls' outcomes at the lower tails of the outcome distribution, precisely where gender gaps are most pronounced. These relationships are not explained by school or neighbourhood factors, or parents' differential treatment of boys. The disproportionate effect of socioeconomic status on boys at the tails substantially contributes to the gender gap in high school dropout.
{"title":"Males at the Tails: How Socioeconomic Status Shapes the Gender Gap.","authors":"David Autor, David Figlio, Krzysztof Karbownik, Jeffrey Roth, Melanie Wasserman","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead069","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ej/uead069","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We document that the female advantage in childhood behavioural and academic outcomes is driven by gender gaps at the extremes of the outcome distribution. Using unconditional quantile regression, we show that family socioeconomic status particularly influences boys' relative to girls' outcomes at the lower tails of the outcome distribution, precisely where gender gaps are most pronounced. These relationships are not explained by school or neighbourhood factors, or parents' differential treatment of boys. The disproportionate effect of socioeconomic status on boys at the tails substantially contributes to the gender gap in high school dropout.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10558139/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41177216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Children who face significant disadvantage early in life are often found to be worse off years or even decades later. Can conditional cash transfer programs mitigate the negative consequences and help these children catch up with their peers? We answer this question using data from rural Mexico, where rainfall shocks can have substantial effects on household income. We find that adverse rainfall in a child's year of birth decreases grade attainment, post-secondary enrollment, and employment outcomes. But declines were much smaller for children whose families were randomised to receive the conditional cash transfer program, PROGRESA: each additional year of PROGRESA exposure during childhood mitigated almost 20% of the early disadvan- tage in grade attainment.
{"title":"Helping Children Catch UP: Early Life Shocks and the Progresa Experiment","authors":"Achyuta Adhvaryu, Anant Nyshadham, Teresa Molina, Jorge Tamayo","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead067","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Children who face significant disadvantage early in life are often found to be worse off years or even decades later. Can conditional cash transfer programs mitigate the negative consequences and help these children catch up with their peers? We answer this question using data from rural Mexico, where rainfall shocks can have substantial effects on household income. We find that adverse rainfall in a child's year of birth decreases grade attainment, post-secondary enrollment, and employment outcomes. But declines were much smaller for children whose families were randomised to receive the conditional cash transfer program, PROGRESA: each additional year of PROGRESA exposure during childhood mitigated almost 20% of the early disadvan- tage in grade attainment.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135621582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper provides causal evidence on how political parties can sway voters at scale in nascent electoral democracies. We collect novel data on expressway construction by the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and use province-by-year variation in construction to show that votes for the Justice and Development Party increased in response to the expressways. The estimates imply that the expressways increased the Justice and Development Party’s vote share by 4.8 percentage points—a third of the increase from 2002 to 2011. We provide evidence that the visibility and competence signalled by the expressway expansion, and not increased local economic growth, drove increased vote shares.
{"title":"Expressway to Votes: Infrastructure Projects and Voter Persuasion","authors":"Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Dozie Okoye, Belgi Turan","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead065","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides causal evidence on how political parties can sway voters at scale in nascent electoral democracies. We collect novel data on expressway construction by the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and use province-by-year variation in construction to show that votes for the Justice and Development Party increased in response to the expressways. The estimates imply that the expressways increased the Justice and Development Party’s vote share by 4.8 percentage points—a third of the increase from 2002 to 2011. We provide evidence that the visibility and competence signalled by the expressway expansion, and not increased local economic growth, drove increased vote shares.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135164888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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