Abstract This paper traces the formation of politicians’ policy preferences to their early-life experiences. Based on biographical information on 2,806 county party secretaries in China and fiscal data from the 1,713 counties they governed during the 1998–2007 period, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in the early-life famine severity experienced by a county party secretary increases fiscal expenditures on agriculture by 0.8% and on social security subsidies by 1.1%. Agricultural taxes are reduced significantly, boosting grain production in the county party secretaries’ work counties. Our findings suggest that county party secretaries who experience early-life famine may develop preferences for food sufficiency and care for people suffering hardships.
{"title":"Winter is Coming: Early-Life Experiences and Politicians’ Decisions","authors":"Shiqi Guo, Nan Gao, Pinghan Liang","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead061","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper traces the formation of politicians’ policy preferences to their early-life experiences. Based on biographical information on 2,806 county party secretaries in China and fiscal data from the 1,713 counties they governed during the 1998–2007 period, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in the early-life famine severity experienced by a county party secretary increases fiscal expenditures on agriculture by 0.8% and on social security subsidies by 1.1%. Agricultural taxes are reduced significantly, boosting grain production in the county party secretaries’ work counties. Our findings suggest that county party secretaries who experience early-life famine may develop preferences for food sufficiency and care for people suffering hardships.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134977480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch, Marco A Schwarz, Chi Trieu, Jana Willrodt
Abstract Debates about affirmative action often revolve around fairness. In a laboratory experiment, we study three quota rules in tournaments that favour individuals whose performance is low, either due to discrimination, low productivity, or choice of a short working time. Affirmative action favouring discriminated individuals is perceived as fairest, followed by that targeting individuals with a short working time, while favouring low-productivity individuals is not perceived as fairer than an absence of affirmative action. Higher fairness perceptions coincide with a higher willingness to compete and less retaliation against winners, underlining that fairness perceptions matter for the consequences of affirmative action.
{"title":"Perceived Fairness and Consequences of Affirmative Action Policies","authors":"Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch, Marco A Schwarz, Chi Trieu, Jana Willrodt","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead063","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Debates about affirmative action often revolve around fairness. In a laboratory experiment, we study three quota rules in tournaments that favour individuals whose performance is low, either due to discrimination, low productivity, or choice of a short working time. Affirmative action favouring discriminated individuals is perceived as fairest, followed by that targeting individuals with a short working time, while favouring low-productivity individuals is not perceived as fairer than an absence of affirmative action. Higher fairness perceptions coincide with a higher willingness to compete and less retaliation against winners, underlining that fairness perceptions matter for the consequences of affirmative action.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135397159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-09eCollection Date: 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead058
Christine L Exley, Judd B Kessler
A rich literature finds that individuals avoid information and suggests that avoidance is driven by image concerns. This paper provides the first direct test of whether individuals avoid information because of image concerns. We build on a classic paradigm, introducing control conditions that make minimal changes to eliminate the role of image concerns while keeping other key features of the environment unchanged. Data from 6,421 experimental subjects shows that image concerns play a role in driving information avoidance, but a role that is substantially smaller than one might have expected.
{"title":"Information Avoidance and Image Concerns.","authors":"Christine L Exley, Judd B Kessler","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead058","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ej/uead058","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A rich literature finds that individuals avoid information and suggests that avoidance is driven by image concerns. This paper provides the first direct test of whether individuals avoid information <i>because of</i> image concerns. We build on a classic paradigm, introducing control conditions that make minimal changes to eliminate the role of image concerns while keeping other key features of the environment unchanged. Data from 6,421 experimental subjects shows that image concerns play a role in driving information avoidance, but a role that is substantially smaller than one might have expected.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10558138/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41166463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Felix Chopra, Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann
Abstract We examine how the evaluation of research studies in economics depends on whether a study yielded a null result. Studies with null results are perceived to be less publishable, of lower quality, less important and less precisely estimated than studies with large and statistically significant results, even when holding constant all other study features, including the sample size and the precision of the estimates. The null result penalty is of similar magnitude among PhD students and journal editors. The penalty is larger when experts predict a large effect and when statistical uncertainty is communicated with p-values rather than standard errors. Our findings highlight the value of a pre-result review.
{"title":"The Null Result Penalty","authors":"Felix Chopra, Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead060","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine how the evaluation of research studies in economics depends on whether a study yielded a null result. Studies with null results are perceived to be less publishable, of lower quality, less important and less precisely estimated than studies with large and statistically significant results, even when holding constant all other study features, including the sample size and the precision of the estimates. The null result penalty is of similar magnitude among PhD students and journal editors. The penalty is larger when experts predict a large effect and when statistical uncertainty is communicated with p-values rather than standard errors. Our findings highlight the value of a pre-result review.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135998573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses whether the systematic disclosure of criminals’ origins in the press affects natives’ attitudes towards immigration. It takes advantage of the unilateral change in reporting policy announced by the German newspaper Sächsische Zeitung in July 2016. Combining individual-level panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2014 to 2018 with 402,819 crime-related articles in German newspapers and those newspapers’ market shares, we find that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals increases the relative salience of natives’ criminality and reduces natives’ concerns about immigration, breaking the implicit link between immigration and crime.
{"title":"The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration.","authors":"Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead059","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses whether the systematic disclosure of criminals’ origins in the press affects natives’ attitudes towards immigration. It takes advantage of the unilateral change in reporting policy announced by the German newspaper Sächsische Zeitung in July 2016. Combining individual-level panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2014 to 2018 with 402,819 crime-related articles in German newspapers and those newspapers’ market shares, we find that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals increases the relative salience of natives’ criminality and reduces natives’ concerns about immigration, breaking the implicit link between immigration and crime.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135840482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We present a dynamic lifecycle model of women’s choices with respect to partnership status, labour supply and fertility when they cannot directly observe whether a given male partner is of a violent type or not. The model is estimated by the method of simulated moments using longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. The results indicate that uncertainty about a partner’s abusive type creates incentives for women to delay fertility, reduce fertility overall, divorce more often and increase labour supply. We also study the impact of higher female wages, income support to single mothers and subsidised childcare when the mother is working. While higher wages reduce women’s overall exposure to abuse, both income support and subsidised childcare largely fail to do so by encouraging early fertility. The latter two policies instead increase the incidence of abuse towards mothers and hence the abuse exposure for children.
{"title":"The Dynamics of Domestic Violence: Learning about the Match","authors":"Dan Anderberg, Noemi Mantovan, Robert Sauer","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a dynamic lifecycle model of women’s choices with respect to partnership status, labour supply and fertility when they cannot directly observe whether a given male partner is of a violent type or not. The model is estimated by the method of simulated moments using longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. The results indicate that uncertainty about a partner’s abusive type creates incentives for women to delay fertility, reduce fertility overall, divorce more often and increase labour supply. We also study the impact of higher female wages, income support to single mothers and subsidised childcare when the mother is working. While higher wages reduce women’s overall exposure to abuse, both income support and subsidised childcare largely fail to do so by encouraging early fertility. The latter two policies instead increase the incidence of abuse towards mothers and hence the abuse exposure for children.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135903973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Conditional cash transfer programmes have spread to over 60 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects. We estimate the lasting impact of childhood exposure to the Mexico’s flagship programme Progresa by leveraging the age structure of benefits and geographic variation in early programme penetration nationwide. Childhood exposure improves women’s outcomes in early adulthood with increases in educational attainment, geographic mobility, labour market performance and household living standards. For men, effects are smaller and more difficult to distinguish from spatial convergence.
{"title":"Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico","authors":"Susan Parker, Tom Vogl","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Conditional cash transfer programmes have spread to over 60 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects. We estimate the lasting impact of childhood exposure to the Mexico’s flagship programme Progresa by leveraging the age structure of benefits and geographic variation in early programme penetration nationwide. Childhood exposure improves women’s outcomes in early adulthood with increases in educational attainment, geographic mobility, labour market performance and household living standards. For men, effects are smaller and more difficult to distinguish from spatial convergence.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135100394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Martin Holmen, Felix Holzmeister, Michael Kirchler, Matthias Stefan, Erik Wengström
Abstract Based on artefactual field experiments, we investigate whether finance professionals differ from a sample of the working population in terms of industry-relevant preferences and personality traits. When adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics, we find only few and less marked differences: finance professionals are less risk averse, less trustworthy, show higher levels of psychopathy and are more competitive than participants from the general population. In an additional survey, experts with hiring experience consider industry selection, self-selection and imprinting by industry norms as explanatory for the observed subject pool differences.
{"title":"Economic Preferences and Personality Traits Among Finance Professionals and the General Population","authors":"Martin Holmen, Felix Holzmeister, Michael Kirchler, Matthias Stefan, Erik Wengström","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead038","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Based on artefactual field experiments, we investigate whether finance professionals differ from a sample of the working population in terms of industry-relevant preferences and personality traits. When adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics, we find only few and less marked differences: finance professionals are less risk averse, less trustworthy, show higher levels of psychopathy and are more competitive than participants from the general population. In an additional survey, experts with hiring experience consider industry selection, self-selection and imprinting by industry norms as explanatory for the observed subject pool differences.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135100393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9% of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in farm women and fertility declined along intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.
{"title":"The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility","authors":"Carl Kitchens, Luke P. Rodgers","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9% of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in farm women and fertility declined along intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135210669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Markus Eberhardt, Giovanni Facchini, Valeria Rueda
Abstract Academia, and economics in particular, faces increased scrutiny because of gender imbalance. This paper studies the job market for entry-level faculty positions. We employ machine learning methods to analyse gendered patterns in the text of 12,000 reference letters written in support of over 3,700 candidates. Using both supervised and unsupervised techniques, we document widespread differences in the attributes emphasised. Women are systematically more likely to be described using ‘grindstone’ terms and at times less likely to be praised for their ability. Using information on initial placement, we highlight the implications of these gendered descriptors for the quality of academic placement.
{"title":"Gender Differences in Reference Letters: Evidence from the Economics Job Market","authors":"Markus Eberhardt, Giovanni Facchini, Valeria Rueda","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Academia, and economics in particular, faces increased scrutiny because of gender imbalance. This paper studies the job market for entry-level faculty positions. We employ machine learning methods to analyse gendered patterns in the text of 12,000 reference letters written in support of over 3,700 candidates. Using both supervised and unsupervised techniques, we document widespread differences in the attributes emphasised. Women are systematically more likely to be described using ‘grindstone’ terms and at times less likely to be praised for their ability. Using information on initial placement, we highlight the implications of these gendered descriptors for the quality of academic placement.","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135090834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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