Pub Date : 2024-08-29DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00155-9
Digital health technologies can generate data that can be used to train artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, which have been particularly transformative in cardiovascular health-care delivery. However, digital and health-care data repositories that are used to train AI algorithms can introduce bias when data are homogeneous and health-care processes are inequitable. AI bias can also be introduced during algorithm development, testing, implementation, and post-implementation processes. The consequences of AI algorithmic bias can be considerable, including missed diagnoses, misclassification of disease, incorrect risk prediction, and inappropriate treatment recommendations. This bias can disproportionately affect marginalised demographic groups. In this Series paper, we provide a brief overview of AI applications in cardiovascular health care, discuss stages of algorithm development and associated sources of bias, and provide examples of harm from biased algorithms. We propose strategies that can be applied during the training, testing, and implementation of AI algorithms to mitigate bias so that all those at risk for or living with cardiovascular disease might benefit equally from AI.
{"title":"Mitigating the risk of artificial intelligence bias in cardiovascular care","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00155-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00155-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital health technologies can generate data that can be used to train artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, which have been particularly transformative in cardiovascular health-care delivery. However, digital and health-care data repositories that are used to train AI algorithms can introduce bias when data are homogeneous and health-care processes are inequitable. AI bias can also be introduced during algorithm development, testing, implementation, and post-implementation processes. The consequences of AI algorithmic bias can be considerable, including missed diagnoses, misclassification of disease, incorrect risk prediction, and inappropriate treatment recommendations. This bias can disproportionately affect marginalised demographic groups. In this Series paper, we provide a brief overview of AI applications in cardiovascular health care, discuss stages of algorithm development and associated sources of bias, and provide examples of harm from biased algorithms. We propose strategies that can be applied during the training, testing, and implementation of AI algorithms to mitigate bias so that all those at risk for or living with cardiovascular disease might benefit equally from AI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142113573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00123-7
Background
Lung cancer risk prediction models might efficiently identify individuals who should be offered lung cancer screening. However, their performance has not been comprehensively evaluated in Europe. We aimed to externally validate and evaluate the performance of several risk prediction models that predict lung cancer incidence or mortality in prospective European cohorts.
Methods
We analysed 240 137 participants aged 45–80 years with a current or former smoking history from nine European countries in four prospective cohorts from the pooled database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium: the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (Finland), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Norway), CONSTANCES (France), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway). We evaluated ten lung cancer risk models, which comprised the Bach, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 model (PLCOm2012), the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (LCRAT), the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), the Optimized Early Warning Model for Lung Cancer Risk (OWL), the University College London—Death (UCLD), the University College London—Incidence (UCLI), the Liverpool Lung Project version 2 (LLP version 2), and the Liverpool Lung Project version 3 (LLP version 3) models. We quantified model calibration as the ratio of expected to observed cases or deaths and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For each model, we also identified risk thresholds that would screen the same number of individuals as each of the US Preventive Services Task Force 2021 (USPSTF-2021), the US Preventive Services Task Force 2013 (USPSTF-2013), and the Nederlands–Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON) criteria.
Findings
Among the participants, 1734 lung cancer cases and 1072 lung cancer deaths occurred within five years of enrolment. Most models had reasonable calibration in most countries, although the LLP version 2 overpredicted risk by more than 50% in eight countries (expected to observed ≥1·50). The PLCOm2012, LCDRAT, LCRAT, Bach, HUNT, OWL, UCLD, and UCLI models showed similar discrimination in most countries, with AUCs ranging from 0·68 (95% CI 0·59–0·77) to 0·83 (0·78–0·89), whereas the LLP version 2 and LLP version 3 showed lower discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0·64 (95% CI 0·57–0·72) to 0·78 (0·74–0·83). When pooling data from all countries (but excluding the HUNT cohort), 33·9% (73 313 of 216 387) of individuals were eligible by USPSTF-2021 criteria, which included 74·8% (1185) of lung cancers and 76·3% (730) of lung cancer deaths occurring over 5 years. Fewer individuals were selected by USPSTF-2013 and NELSON criteria. After applying thresholds to select a
{"title":"Evaluation of risk prediction models to select lung cancer screening participants in Europe: a prospective cohort consortium analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00123-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00123-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Lung cancer risk prediction models might efficiently identify individuals who should be offered lung cancer screening. However, their performance has not been comprehensively evaluated in Europe. We aimed to externally validate and evaluate the performance of several risk prediction models that predict lung cancer incidence or mortality in prospective European cohorts.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We analysed 240 137 participants aged 45–80 years with a current or former smoking history from nine European countries in four prospective cohorts from the pooled database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium: the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (Finland), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Norway), CONSTANCES (France), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway). We evaluated ten lung cancer risk models, which comprised the Bach, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 model (PLCO<sub>m2012</sub>), the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (LCRAT), the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), the Optimized Early Warning Model for Lung Cancer Risk (OWL), the University College London—Death (UCLD), the University College London—Incidence (UCLI), the Liverpool Lung Project version 2 (LLP version 2), and the Liverpool Lung Project version 3 (LLP version 3) models. We quantified model calibration as the ratio of expected to observed cases or deaths and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For each model, we also identified risk thresholds that would screen the same number of individuals as each of the US Preventive Services Task Force 2021 (USPSTF-2021), the US Preventive Services Task Force 2013 (USPSTF-2013), and the Nederlands–Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON) criteria.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Among the participants, 1734 lung cancer cases and 1072 lung cancer deaths occurred within five years of enrolment. Most models had reasonable calibration in most countries, although the LLP version 2 overpredicted risk by more than 50% in eight countries (expected to observed ≥1·50). The PLCO<sub>m2012</sub>, LCDRAT, LCRAT, Bach, HUNT, OWL, UCLD, and UCLI models showed similar discrimination in most countries, with AUCs ranging from 0·68 (95% CI 0·59–0·77) to 0·83 (0·78–0·89), whereas the LLP version 2 and LLP version 3 showed lower discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0·64 (95% CI 0·57–0·72) to 0·78 (0·74–0·83). When pooling data from all countries (but excluding the HUNT cohort), 33·9% (73 313 of 216 387) of individuals were eligible by USPSTF-2021 criteria, which included 74·8% (1185) of lung cancers and 76·3% (730) of lung cancer deaths occurring over 5 years. Fewer individuals were selected by USPSTF-2013 and NELSON criteria. After applying thresholds to select a ","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589750024001237/pdfft?md5=f39b6b82aa1c03f5fab734e0e84a6e1f&pid=1-s2.0-S2589750024001237-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00124-9
Among the rapid integration of artificial intelligence in clinical settings, large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformer-4, have emerged as multifaceted tools that have potential for health-care delivery, diagnosis, and patient care. However, deployment of LLMs raises substantial regulatory and safety concerns. Due to their high output variability, poor inherent explainability, and the risk of so-called AI hallucinations, LLM-based health-care applications that serve a medical purpose face regulatory challenges for approval as medical devices under US and EU laws, including the recently passed EU Artificial Intelligence Act. Despite unaddressed risks for patients, including misdiagnosis and unverified medical advice, such applications are available on the market. The regulatory ambiguity surrounding these tools creates an urgent need for frameworks that accommodate their unique capabilities and limitations. Alongside the development of these frameworks, existing regulations should be enforced. If regulators fear enforcing the regulations in a market dominated by supply or development by large technology companies, the consequences of layperson harm will force belated action, damaging the potentiality of LLM-based applications for layperson medical advice.
{"title":"A future role for health applications of large language models depends on regulators enforcing safety standards","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00124-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00124-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Among the rapid integration of artificial intelligence in clinical settings, large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformer-4, have emerged as multifaceted tools that have potential for health-care delivery, diagnosis, and patient care. However, deployment of LLMs raises substantial regulatory and safety concerns. Due to their high output variability, poor inherent explainability, and the risk of so-called AI hallucinations, LLM-based health-care applications that serve a medical purpose face regulatory challenges for approval as medical devices under US and EU laws, including the recently passed EU Artificial Intelligence Act. Despite unaddressed risks for patients, including misdiagnosis and unverified medical advice, such applications are available on the market. The regulatory ambiguity surrounding these tools creates an urgent need for frameworks that accommodate their unique capabilities and limitations. Alongside the development of these frameworks, existing regulations should be enforced. If regulators fear enforcing the regulations in a market dominated by supply or development by large technology companies, the consequences of layperson harm will force belated action, damaging the potentiality of LLM-based applications for layperson medical advice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589750024001249/pdfft?md5=2df13b013a0e89af3fe332b6bcb83ed0&pid=1-s2.0-S2589750024001249-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00175-4
{"title":"Balancing AI innovation with patient safety","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00175-4","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00175-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589750024001754/pdfft?md5=0a8eaf69e78527e6cec35e921968cd32&pid=1-s2.0-S2589750024001754-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00171-7
{"title":"Reporting standards to support cost-effectiveness evaluations of AI-driven health care","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00171-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00171-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589750024001717/pdfft?md5=38bf3554f6e2ebc110a0128fd57b4837&pid=1-s2.0-S2589750024001717-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00176-6
{"title":"Correction to Lancet Digit Health 2024; 6: e605–13","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00176-6","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00176-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589750024001766/pdfft?md5=11bd2424e9355f76c22900c4a010ada2&pid=1-s2.0-S2589750024001766-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142040581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00140-7
Background
The emergence of long COVID as a COVID-19 sequela was largely syndromic in characterisation. Digital health technologies such as wearable devices open the possibility to study this condition with passive, objective data in addition to self-reported symptoms. We aimed to quantify the prevalence and severity of symptoms across collected mobile health metrics over 12 weeks following COVID-19 diagnosis and to identify risk factors for the development of post-COVID-19 condition (also known as long COVID).
Methods
The Covid Collab study was a longitudinal, self-enrolled, community, case–control study. We recruited participants from the UK through a smartphone app, media publications, and promotion within the Fitbit app between Aug 28, 2020, and May 31, 2021. Adults (aged ≥18 years) who reported a COVID-19 diagnosis with a positive antigen or PCR test before Feb 1, 2022, were eligible for inclusion. We compared a cohort of 1200 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 with a cohort of 3600 sex-matched and age-matched controls without a COVID-19 diagnosis. Participants could provide information on COVID-19 symptoms and mental health through self-reported questionnaires (active data) and commercial wearable fitness devices (passive data). Data were compared between cohorts at three periods following diagnosis: acute COVID-19 (0–4 weeks), ongoing COVID-19 (4–12 weeks), and post-COVID-19 (12–16 weeks). We assessed sociodemographic and mobile health risk factors for the development of long COVID (defined as either a persistent change in a physiological signal or self-reported symptoms for ≥12 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis).
Findings
By Aug 1, 2022, 17 667 participants had enrolled into the study, of whom 1200 (6·8%) cases and 3600 (20·4%) controls were included in the analyses. Compared with baseline (65 beats per min), resting heart rate increased significantly during the acute (0·47 beats per min; odds ratio [OR] 1·06 [95% CI 1·03–1·09]; p<0·0001), ongoing (0·99 beats per min; 1·11 [1·08–1·14]; p<0·0001), and post-COVID-19 (0·52 beats per min; 1·04 [1·02–1·07]; p=0·0017) phases. An increased level of historical activity in the period from 24 months to 6 months preceding COVID-19 diagnosis was protective against long COVID (coefficient –0·017 [95% CI –0·030 to –0·003]; p=0·015). Depressive symptoms were persistently elevated following COVID-19 (OR 1·03 [95% CI 1·01–1·06]; p=0·0033) and were a potential risk factor for developing long COVID (1·14 [1·07–1·22]; p<0·0001).
Interpretation
Mobile health technologies and commercial wearable devices might prove to be a useful resource for tracking recovery from COVID-19 and the prevalence of its long-term sequelae, as well as representing an abundant source of historical data. Mental wellbeing can be impacted negatively for an extended period following COVID-19.
{"title":"Physiological presentation and risk factors of long COVID in the UK using smartphones and wearable devices: a longitudinal, citizen science, case–control study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00140-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00140-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The emergence of long COVID as a COVID-19 sequela was largely syndromic in characterisation. Digital health technologies such as wearable devices open the possibility to study this condition with passive, objective data in addition to self-reported symptoms. We aimed to quantify the prevalence and severity of symptoms across collected mobile health metrics over 12 weeks following COVID-19 diagnosis and to identify risk factors for the development of post-COVID-19 condition (also known as long COVID).</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>The Covid Collab study was a longitudinal, self-enrolled, community, case–control study. We recruited participants from the UK through a smartphone app, media publications, and promotion within the Fitbit app between Aug 28, 2020, and May 31, 2021. Adults (aged ≥18 years) who reported a COVID-19 diagnosis with a positive antigen or PCR test before Feb 1, 2022, were eligible for inclusion. We compared a cohort of 1200 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 with a cohort of 3600 sex-matched and age-matched controls without a COVID-19 diagnosis. Participants could provide information on COVID-19 symptoms and mental health through self-reported questionnaires (active data) and commercial wearable fitness devices (passive data). Data were compared between cohorts at three periods following diagnosis: acute COVID-19 (0–4 weeks), ongoing COVID-19 (4–12 weeks), and post-COVID-19 (12–16 weeks). We assessed sociodemographic and mobile health risk factors for the development of long COVID (defined as either a persistent change in a physiological signal or self-reported symptoms for ≥12 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis).</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>By Aug 1, 2022, 17 667 participants had enrolled into the study, of whom 1200 (6·8%) cases and 3600 (20·4%) controls were included in the analyses. Compared with baseline (65 beats per min), resting heart rate increased significantly during the acute (0·47 beats per min; odds ratio [OR] 1·06 [95% CI 1·03–1·09]; p<0·0001), ongoing (0·99 beats per min; 1·11 [1·08–1·14]; p<0·0001), and post-COVID-19 (0·52 beats per min; 1·04 [1·02–1·07]; p=0·0017) phases. An increased level of historical activity in the period from 24 months to 6 months preceding COVID-19 diagnosis was protective against long COVID (coefficient –0·017 [95% CI –0·030 to –0·003]; p=0·015). Depressive symptoms were persistently elevated following COVID-19 (OR 1·03 [95% CI 1·01–1·06]; p=0·0033) and were a potential risk factor for developing long COVID (1·14 [1·07–1·22]; p<0·0001).</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Mobile health technologies and commercial wearable devices might prove to be a useful resource for tracking recovery from COVID-19 and the prevalence of its long-term sequelae, as well as representing an abundant source of historical data. Mental wellbeing can be impacted negatively for an extended period following COVID-19.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>National ","PeriodicalId":48534,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Digital Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589750024001407/pdfft?md5=41fde3576005e91fa40bb70d2e644041&pid=1-s2.0-S2589750024001407-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141976944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00141-9
The digitisation of health care is offering the promise of transforming the management of paediatric sepsis, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. Digital technology is already making an impact in paediatric sepsis, but is almost exclusively benefiting patients in high-resource health-care settings. However, digital tools can be highly scalable and cost-effective, and—with the right planning—have the potential to reduce global health disparities. Novel digital solutions, from wearable devices and mobile apps, to electronic health record-embedded decision support tools, have an unprecedented opportunity to transform paediatric sepsis research and care. In this Series paper, we describe the current state of digital solutions in paediatric sepsis around the world, the advances in digital technology that are enabling the development of novel applications, and the potential effect of advances in artificial intelligence in paediatric sepsis research and clinical care.
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Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00139-0
Background
Physical inactivity in children and adolescents has become a pressing public health concern. Wearable activity trackers can allow self-monitoring of physical activity behaviour and promote autonomous motivation for exercise. However, the effects of wearable trackers on physical activity in young populations remain uncertain.
Methods
In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science for publications from database inception up to Aug 30, 2023, without restrictions on language. Studies were eligible if they were randomised controlled trials or clustered randomised controlled trials that examined the use of wearable activity trackers to promote physical activity, reduce sedentary behaviours, or promote overall health in participants with a mean age of 19 years or younger, with no restrictions on health condition or study settings. Studies were excluded if children or adolescents were not the primary intervention cohort, or wearable activity trackers were not worn on users’ bodies to objectively track users’ physical activity levels. Two independent reviewers (WWA and FR) assessed eligibility of studies and contacted authors of studies if more information was needed to assess eligibility. We also searched reference lists from relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Systematic review software Covidence was used for study screening and data extraction. Study characteristics including study setting, participant characteristics, intervention characteristics, comparator, and outcome measurements were extracted from eligible studies. The two primary outcomes were objectively measured daily steps and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. We used a random-effects model with Hartung–Knapp adjustments to calculate standardised mean differences. Between-study heterogeneity was examined using Higgins I2 and Cochran Q statistic. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's regression test. This systematic review was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023397248.
Findings
We identified 9619 studies from our database research and 174 studies from searching relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses, of which 105 were subjected to full text screening. We included 21 eligible studies, involving 3676 children and adolescents (1618 [44%] were female and 2058 [56%] were male, mean age was 13·7 years [SD 2·7]) in our systematic review and meta-analysis. Ten studies were included in the estimation of the effect of wearable activity trackers on objectively measured daily steps and 11 were included for objectively measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Compared with controls, we found a significant increase in objectively measured daily steps (standardised mean difference 0·37 [95% CI 0·09 to 0·65; p=0·013]; Q 47·60 [p<0·0001]; I2 72·7% [95% CI 53·4 to 84·0]), but not for moderate-to-vig
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Pub Date : 2024-08-01DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00099-2
Background
Detecting and foreseeing pathogen dispersion is crucial in preventing widespread disease transmission. Human mobility is a fundamental issue in human transmission of infectious agents. Through a mobility data-driven approach, we aimed to identify municipalities in Brazil that could comprise an advanced sentinel network, allowing for early detection of circulating pathogens and their associated transmission routes.
Methods
In this modelling and validation study, we compiled a comprehensive dataset on intercity mobility spanning air, road, and waterway transport from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2016 data), National Transport Confederation (2022), and National Civil Aviation Agency (2017–23). We constructed a graph-based representation of Brazil's mobility network. The Ford–Fulkerson algorithm was used to rank the 5570 Brazilian cities according to their suitability as sentinel locations, allowing us to predict the most suitable locations for early detection and to track the most likely trajectory of a newly emerged pathogen. We also obtained SARS-CoV-2 genetic data from Brazilian municipalities during the early stage (Feb 25–April 30, 2020) of the virus's introduction and the gamma (P.1) variant emergence in Manaus (Jan 6–March 1, 2021), for the purposes of model validation.
Findings
We found that flights alone transported 79·9 million (95% CI 58·3–101·4 million) passengers annually within Brazil during 2017–22, with seasonal peaks occurring in late spring and summer, and road and river networks had a maximum capacity of 78·3 million passengers weekly in 2016. By analysing the 7 746 479 most probable paths originating from source nodes, we found that 3857 cities fully cover the mobility pattern of all 5570 cities in Brazil, 557 (10·0%) of which cover 6 313 380 (81·5%) of the mobility patterns in our study. By strategically incorporating mobility patterns into Brazil's existing influenza-like illness surveillance network (ie, by switching the location of 111 of 199 sentinel sites to different municipalities), our model predicted that mobility coverage would have a 33·6% improvement from 4 059 155 (52·4%) mobility patterns to 5 422 535 (70·0%) without expanding the number of sentinel sites. Our findings are validated with genomic data collected during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic period. Our model accurately mapped 22 (51%) of 43 clade 1-affected cities and 28 (60%) of 47 clade 2-affected cities spread from São Paulo city, and 20 (49%) of 41 clade 1-affected cities and 28 (58%) of 48 clade 2-affected cities spread from Rio de Janeiro city, Feb 25–April 30, 2020. Additionally, 224 (73%) of the 307 suggested early-detection locations for pathogens emerging in Manaus corresponded with the first cities affected by the transmission of the gamma variant, Jan 6–16, 2021.
Interpretation
By providing essential clues for effective pathogen
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