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Human close contact behavior based respiratory diseases transmission in a university office building 基于呼吸系统疾病传播的大学办公大楼人类密切接触行为
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100344
Nan Zhang, Palmira Elisa Nhantumbo, Haochen Zhang
Understanding how respiratory infectious diseases spreads is critical for effective pandemic prevention and control. This study investigated the transmission of aerosol-transmissible respiratory pathogens within an office building for postgraduate students and teachers in Beijing, using SARS-CoV-2 as representative model, focusing on real-time occupancy and close-contact behaviors. Surveillance videos and RGB-D cameras were used to collect data, and a multi–route virus transmission model was established to assess the infection risk and evaluate the effectiveness of non–pharmaceutical interventions. Student offices experienced the longest room usage time (13.2 ± 0.4 h) but a lower room occupancy intensity rate (27.1 ± 7 %) during weekdays. Close contact rate in students and teacher offices ranged from 10 to 11 %, while the conference room displayed the highest rates of 93–96 %. Teacher offices had the lowest average interpersonal distance during close contact (0.73 m), followed by teachers' conference (0.85 m). If a single infected individual were set in the building, people in the student office would face the highest hourly infection risk at 0.12 %. The use of surgical masks and increasing indoor ventilation from 0.5 to 6 air changes per hour reduces the total infection risk by 66.4–76.0 % and 45.0–65.0 %, respectively. Maintaining a distance of 1.5 m when in contact can further lower the total infection risk to 52.8–51.9 %. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for understanding the transmission dynamics of a respiratory infectious disease within the building, essential knowledge for effective prevention and control strategies.
了解呼吸道传染病如何传播对于有效预防和控制大流行至关重要。本研究以SARS-CoV-2为代表模型,对北京市某研究生和教师办公大楼内气溶胶传播呼吸道病原体的传播情况进行了调查,重点关注实时占用和近距离接触行为。采用监控视频和RGB-D摄像机采集数据,建立病毒多途径传播模型,评估感染风险,评价非药物干预措施的有效性。学生办公室工作日的用房时间最长(13.2±0.4 h),但用房强度率较低(27.1±7%)。学生办公室和教师办公室的密切接触率为10% - 11%,而会议室的密切接触率最高,为93% - 96%。教师办公室密切接触时的平均人际距离最低(0.73 m),其次是教师会议(0.85 m),如果在教学楼内设置单个感染者,学生办公室人员的小时感染风险最高,为0.12%。使用外科口罩和将室内换气次数从每小时0.5次增加到6次,可使总感染风险分别降低66.4 - 76.0%和45.0 - 65.0%。接触时保持1.5米的距离可进一步将总感染风险降低至52.8 - 51.9%。本研究结果为了解呼吸道传染病在建筑物内的传播动态提供了有价值的见解,为有效的预防和控制策略提供了必要的知识。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative microbiological risk assessment using individual data on food storage and consumption (Part 1): A case study on listeriosis associated to ready-to-eat foods in France 利用食品储存和消费的个人数据进行定量微生物风险评估(第1部分):法国与即食食品相关的李斯特菌病案例研究
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100343
Hernán G. Redondo , Laurent Guillier , Virginie Desvignes , Matthias Filter , Sara M. Pires , Maarten Nauta
The risk of acquiring foodborne infections such as listeriosis is influenced by individuals’ food consumption and food storage practices. So far, quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) studies have mostly treated the related variables as independent, creating potentially unrealistic high-risk conditions, such as combinations of big portion size, high frequency of consumption, high storage temperature and long storage time. Therefore, in this study, we integrated individual food consumption and food storage data collected by the French national dietary survey INCA3 with food contamination data to estimate the risk of listeriosis in France, without assuming independence of variables. The aim was to assess and compare risks for different population groups and for different food groups, to identify risk factors and characterize high-risk groups. We adapted a QMRA model previously developed for the assessment of the number of listeriosis cases associated to ready-to-eat (RTE) foods in the EU. We modified the exposure assessment to use an individual-based approach in which consumer-specific consumption data and food safety practices are used to calculate exposure. Results showed that high-risk individuals stored their food in their refrigerator for longer and at higher temperatures prior to consumption than low-risk individuals. Smoked fish and pâte were estimated to be responsible for 66 % of the likely 393 annual cases for France. Improved characterization of high-risk individuals and their determinants for risk may contribute to better targeted food safety guidance. We demonstrated that considering individual-based data in QMRA opens the way for the establishment of risk-based measures that are specific for distinct individuals within the population.The advantage of this “individual-based” QMRA approach is that the observed variation between individual consumers in the four variables “frequency of consumption”, “portion size”, “storage time” and “storage temperature” is taken into account, and that it includes their interdependency for each individual consumer.
获得李斯特菌病等食源性感染的风险受到个人食物消费和食物储存做法的影响。到目前为止,定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)研究大多将相关变量视为独立的,造成了潜在的不切实际的高风险条件,如大份量、高食用频率、高储存温度和长储存时间的组合。因此,在本研究中,我们将法国国家膳食调查INCA3收集的个人食品消费和食品储存数据与食品污染数据相结合,在不假设变量独立性的情况下估计法国李斯特菌病的风险。目的是评估和比较不同人群和不同食物组的风险,确定风险因素并确定高风险人群的特征。我们采用了先前开发的QMRA模型,用于评估欧盟与即食食品(RTE)相关的李斯特菌病病例数量。我们修改了暴露评估,使用基于个人的方法,其中使用消费者特定的消费数据和食品安全实践来计算暴露。结果表明,与低风险人群相比,高风险人群在食用前将食物放在冰箱里的时间更长,温度更高。据估计,在法国每年可能发生的393例病例中,熏鱼和鱼肉占66%。改进高风险个体及其风险决定因素的特征可能有助于更好地进行有针对性的食品安全指导。我们证明,在QMRA中考虑基于个人的数据,为建立针对人群中不同个体的基于风险的措施开辟了道路。这种“以个人为基础”的QMRA方法的优点是,在四个变量“消费频率”、“分量大小”、“储存时间”和“储存温度”中观察到的个体消费者之间的差异被考虑在内,并且它包括每个个体消费者的相互依赖性。
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引用次数: 0
Pathogens-in-Foods (PIF): An open-access European database of occurrence data of biological hazards in foods 食品中的病原体(PIF):一个开放获取的欧洲食品中生物危害发生数据数据库
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100342
Ursula Gonzales-Barron , Ana Sofia Faria , Anne Thebault , Laurent Guillier , Lucas Ribeiro Mendes , Lucas Ribeiro Silva , Winy Messens , Pauline Kooh , Vasco Cadavez
The collection of occurrence data of foodborne pathogens in foods faces the hindrances of dispersion of information, lack of standardisation and harmonisation, and ultimately, high expenditure in time and resources. The Pathogens-in-Foods (PIF) database was conceived as a solution to centralise published data on prevalence and concentration of pathogenic bacteria, viruses and parasites occurring in foods, obtained through systematic review (SR), and categorised in harmonised data structures under controlled terminologies. The present article outlines how PIF was constructed to adhere to the FAIR (findability, accessibility, interoperability and reusability) principles for scientific data management; and proceeds with a description of the PIF concept, which entails two phases: the SR process and the population of PIF. The protocolled SR process is supported by a well-defined search strategy, inclusion criteria, and rules for internal validation assessment; whereas the population of PIF with new data relies in data extraction, validation and release. The article then introduces a novel data quality approach, named as the CCC approach (data consistency, conformity and completeness), which ensures proper interpretation of data, richness of data, and flawless transcription of data. After a brief explanation of the three PIF components – database, back-end and front-end – the article proceeds with the exposition of the data model, as well as the capabilities of the front-end, including data search, insertion and curation. The future of PIF lies in expanding its capabilities, addressing emerging challenges, and leveraging technological advancements to maintain its relevance and utility in the evolving landscape of food safety.
食品中食源性病原体发生数据的收集面临着信息分散、缺乏标准化和协调以及最终花费大量时间和资源的障碍。食品中病原体(PIF)数据库被设想为一种解决方案,用于集中通过系统审查(SR)获得的关于食品中致病菌、病毒和寄生虫的流行率和浓度的已发表数据,并在受控术语下按统一数据结构进行分类。本文概述了如何构建PIF以坚持科学数据管理的FAIR(可查找性,可访问性,互操作性和可重用性)原则;并开始描述PIF概念,其中包括两个阶段:SR过程和PIF的人口。协议化的SR过程由定义良好的搜索策略、包含标准和内部验证评估规则支持;而具有新数据的PIF的填充依赖于数据的提取、验证和发布。然后,本文介绍了一种新的数据质量方法,称为CCC方法(数据一致性、一致性和完整性),它确保了对数据的正确解释、数据的丰富性和数据的完美转录。在简要介绍了三个PIF组件(数据库、后端和前端)之后,本文继续阐述数据模型,以及前端的功能,包括数据搜索、插入和管理。PIF的未来在于扩大其能力,应对新出现的挑战,并利用技术进步来保持其在不断变化的食品安全领域的相关性和实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Microbial assessments for import risk assessment: reflections and future perspectives 进口风险评估的微生物评估:反思和未来展望
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100341
Amie Adkin, Steve Wearne
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引用次数: 0
Microbial risk analysis from a food industry perspective – insights from an international survey 从食品工业的角度分析微生物风险——来自一项国际调查的见解
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100340
Alexandra Fetsch , Nunzio Sarnino , Konstantinos Koutsoumanis , Maarten Nauta , Martin Wiedmann , Katharina D.C. Stärk , Monika Ehling-Schulz , Roger Stephan , Sophia Johler
Foodborne microbial hazards lead to substantial morbidity and mortality. To assure consumer protection, a need to move from hazard-based to risk-based food safety approaches is increasingly recognized. Food-business-operators play a crucial role by implementing risk management practices in their facilities. Still, there is very limited data on current approaches to ensure microbial food safety and the profiles and perceptions of professionals assessing, managing, and communicating risks in food industry. This study addresses food safety approaches and challenges in food industry aiming to provide data on microbial risk analysis according to Codex Alimentarius. A survey elicited responses from 108 food professionals involved in microbial risk assessment, risk management, or risk communication in the food industry. The findings highlight drivers and trends relevant to food safety and the food industries’ internal decision-making processes. Most participants had risk-based food-safety management systems established. A microbial risk assessment according to Codex Alimentarius principles was conducted by 85 %. Professionals pinpointed areas that led to significant microbial incidents such as contaminated raw materials, poor hygiene, or emerging pathogens. Interestingly, one third of the participants believed that zero risk is possible, which contrasts with the scientific consensus that microbial food safety is not absolute as zero risk is not feasible. The results of this work provide insights into the implementation and understanding of microbial risk analysis from a food industrial perspective and could be leveraged to develop innovative microbial risk analysis frameworks that meet the challenges of future food systems.
食源性微生物危害导致大量发病率和死亡率。为确保对消费者的保护,人们日益认识到需要从基于危害的食品安全方法转向基于风险的食品安全方法。食品企业经营者通过在其设施中实施风险管理实践发挥关键作用。尽管如此,目前确保微生物食品安全的方法以及专业人员评估、管理和传达食品行业风险的概况和看法方面的数据非常有限。本研究针对食品工业中的食品安全方法和挑战,旨在根据食品法典提供微生物风险分析的数据。一项调查吸引了108名食品行业从事微生物风险评估、风险管理或风险沟通的专业人士的反馈。研究结果强调了与食品安全和食品行业内部决策过程相关的驱动因素和趋势。大多数参与者建立了基于风险的食品安全管理体系。根据食品法典原则进行了85%的微生物风险评估。专业人员指出了导致重大微生物事件的领域,如污染的原材料、不良的卫生条件或新出现的病原体。有趣的是,三分之一的参与者认为零风险是可能的,这与科学界一致认为微生物食品安全不是绝对的,因为零风险是不可实现的形成了鲜明对比。这项工作的结果从食品工业的角度提供了对微生物风险分析的实施和理解的见解,可以用来开发创新的微生物风险分析框架,以应对未来食品系统的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative microbiological risk assessment using individual data on food storage and consumption (Part 2): A comparison with traditional QMRA approaches 使用食品储存和消费的个人数据进行定量微生物风险评估(第2部分):与传统QMRA方法的比较
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100339
Hernán G. Redondo , Laurent Guillier , Virginie Desvignes , Matthias Filter , Sara M. Pires , Maarten Nauta
In a previous study, we integrated data from individual consumers collected in a dietary survey in France in a multi-food quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for listeriosis. Here, we compared the “individual-based” modelling approach applied in that study with several other approaches where the data are treated as in more “traditional” QMRA methods, for example by assuming independent randomly sampled variables from distributions fitted through the data, instead of the observed individual data themselves. We found that assigning randomly sampled storage times instead of the reported individual storage times resulted in a higher risk estimate than the baseline, expressed as expected annual number of cases in the population. Assigning randomly sampled storage temperature and point estimates for portion size and frequency of consumption, slightly increased the estimated risk. Statistical analysis did not show dependency between portion size, frequency of consumption, storage temperature and storage time in the data set, which can be explained by the fact that only a few individuals had a large impact on the final population risk. Analysis of expected numbers of cases per age class, sex and food group showed small differences between approaches. Our analysis was challenged by the difference between a model structure where the risk is calculated per individual (when based on a dietary survey with individual data) and one where it is calculated per serving, as in “traditional” QMRA. We showed that an “individual-based” QMRA is more resource-demanding but can give fundamentally different risk estimates, which are potentially more accurate. The application of tools for efficient knowledge exchange and integration is needed to facilitate the usage of this type of QMRA.
在之前的一项研究中,我们将从法国膳食调查中收集的个人消费者数据整合到李斯特菌病的多种食品定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)中。在这里,我们将该研究中应用的“基于个体”的建模方法与其他几种方法进行了比较,这些方法将数据视为更“传统”的QMRA方法,例如,通过假设来自数据拟合分布的独立随机抽样变量,而不是观察到的个体数据本身。我们发现,分配随机抽样的储存时间,而不是报告的个人储存时间,导致比基线更高的风险估计,以预期的人口年病例数表示。分配随机采样的存储温度和对部分大小和消费频率的点估计,稍微增加了估计的风险。统计分析显示,数据集中的分量大小、食用频率、储存温度和储存时间之间没有相关性,这可以解释为只有少数个体对最终群体风险有很大影响。对每个年龄段、性别和食物组的预期病例数的分析显示,不同方法之间的差异很小。我们的分析受到了模型结构差异的挑战,模型结构中风险是按个人计算的(基于个人数据的饮食调查),而模型结构中风险是按每份食物计算的(如“传统”QMRA)。我们表明,“基于个人的”QMRA需要更多的资源,但可以给出根本不同的风险估计,这可能更准确。为了促进这类QMRA的使用,需要应用有效的知识交换和集成工具。
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引用次数: 0
An international disease monitoring tool to estimate the likelihood of entry of animal health hazards from legal trade of live animals and products of animal origin imported from different countries (IDM+) 一种国际疾病监测工具,用于估计从不同国家进口的活体动物和动物源性产品的合法贸易带来动物健康危害的可能性(IDM+)
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100338
Alex Royden , Robert Dewar , Brendan Cowled , Rohan Sadler , Alison Hillman , Laura C. Gonzalez-Villeta , Helen Roberts , Catherine McCarthy , Robin R.L. Simons
Trade of live animals and products of animal origin (POAO) carries an inherent risk of spreading pathogens. As such, it is essential for any country to have effective early detection and/or horizon scanning systems in place to be aware of the potential entry risks of pathogens. To this end, the United Kingdom has a number of horizon scanning and risk assessment tools to carry out international disease monitoring. Here we develop these ideas further in a generic, semi-quantitative risk assessment tool; the International Disease Monitoring Plus (IDM+) tool.
The IDM+ tool utilises publicly available data on the presence of terrestrial animal health pathogens and volumes of commodities imported into Great Britain (GB) from multiple trading partners. Identifying the likelihood of a pathogen arriving at the GB border involved >550 individual commodity types, 125 pathogens and 55 countries. It also includes expert opinion on country and commodity specific mitigation measures, to derive a likelihood of entry score for each country, commodity, and pathogen combination.
This paper presents an example of the model used to assess commodities being imported into GB. However, the principle could be applied to any country accepting imports of live animals or POAO.
The IDM+ model considers changes in global pathogen distribution and trade volumes to provide ongoing and rapid appraisal of the likelihood of entry for different commodities, countries, and pathogens. It is designed to be quick to run with a largely automated process, further enabling rapid updates with new disease and trade source and volume data. The model can present results with and without trade volume weighting and with different likelihoods. When a specific import disease risk is identified to be of concern, carrying out a comprehensive import risk analysis is still recommended. However, this model is a valuable tool to provide a holistic overview and comparison of the likelihood of entry to GB of a large number of potential threats to animal health. It can be utilised in time-constrained environments and when limited data are available. The results can be of direct use for a variety of purposes, including, but not limited to, prioritisation of border inspections and in-country audits, rapid output generation for emergency outbreak assessments and/or assessing risk from specific imported consignments.
活体动物和动物源性产品的贸易具有传播病原体的固有风险。因此,任何国家都必须具备有效的早期发现和/或水平扫描系统,以了解病原体的潜在入境风险。为此,联合王国拥有若干水平扫描和风险评估工具,用于开展国际疾病监测。在这里,我们进一步发展这些想法在一个通用的,半定量的风险评估工具;国际疾病监测+ (IDM+)工具。IDM+工具利用有关陆生动物卫生病原体存在情况和从多个贸易伙伴进口到英国的商品数量的公开数据。确定病原体到达英国边境的可能性涉及550种单独商品类型、125种病原体和55个国家。它还包括关于国家和特定商品缓解措施的专家意见,以得出每个国家、商品和病原体组合的入境可能性得分。本文给出了一个用于评估我国进口商品的模型实例。然而,这一原则可适用于任何接受活体动物或POAO进口的国家。IDM+模型考虑了全球病原体分布和贸易量的变化,以便对不同商品、国家和病原体进入的可能性进行持续和快速的评估。它的设计目的是通过一个基本自动化的过程快速运行,进一步实现对新的疾病和贸易来源和数量数据的快速更新。该模型可以给出有和没有交易量加权以及不同可能性的结果。当确定某种特定的进口疾病风险值得关注时,仍建议进行全面的进口风险分析。然而,该模型是一个有价值的工具,可以对大量动物健康潜在威胁进入GB的可能性进行全面概述和比较。它可以在时间有限的环境中使用,并且可用的数据有限。其结果可直接用于各种目的,包括但不限于确定边境检查和国内审计的优先次序、为紧急疫情评估快速生成产出和/或评估特定进口货物的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Spatial risk assessment of ovine Scrapie in Brazil” [Microbial Risk Analysis 25 (2023) 100282] 对 "巴西绵羊疥癣病的空间风险评估 "的更正[微生物风险分析 25 (2023) 100282]
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100311
Paulo Gomes do Nascimento Corrêa , Francisco Alyson Silva Oliveira , Rivanni Jeniffer Souza Castro , Carlos Thiago Silveira Alvim Mendes de Oliveira , Glenda Lídice de Oliveira Cortez Marinho , Abelardo Silva Júnior , Ricardo Antonio Pilegi Sfaciotte , David Germano Gonçalves Schwarz
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibiotic-resistant Salmonella enterica contaminating hydroponic leafy vegetables 对水培叶菜类污染的耐抗生素肠炎沙门氏菌进行微生物定量风险评估
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100330
Shun Takayama , Qian Zhang , Ye Htut Zwe , Dan Li , Daisuke Sano , Wakana Oishi
Hydroponics plays an important role in addressing food security concerns, particularly in countries aiming to increase food self-sufficiency. However, it is vulnerable to microbial contamination, and biofilms formed in hydroponic facilities may promote horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Eventually, the bacteria are internalized into the edible parts of the vegetable through the roots, which can lead to human exposure to antibiotic-resistant pathogenic bacteria. Microbial risk assessment can play a pivotal role in microbial risk management; however, it has not been conducted for hydroponic systems. In this study, a quantitative microbial risk assessment of hydroponic vegetables was performed using literature values regarding the concentration of Salmonella spp. in hydroponics, efficiency of HGT, probability and rate of internalization, vegetable consumption patterns, and dose-response relationships. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the factors that had a significant impact on the infection probability per single exposure event for all Salmonella spp. by calculating Spearman's correlation coefficients. The estimated annual probability of infection per person by all Salmonella spp. was 2.04 × 10−1, while the estimated probability of infection from Salmonella spp. that acquired ARGs was 2.54 × 10−6. Our sensitivity analysis showed the correlation between the occurrence of internalization and hydroponic contamination levels, highlighting the need for increased awareness and regulatory action.
水培技术在解决粮食安全问题方面发挥着重要作用,尤其是在旨在提高粮食自给率的国家。然而,它很容易受到微生物污染,水培设施中形成的生物膜可能会促进抗生素抗性基因(ARGs)的水平基因转移(HGT)。最终,细菌通过根部内化到蔬菜的可食用部分,从而导致人类接触到抗生素致病菌。微生物风险评估可在微生物风险管理中发挥关键作用,但目前还没有针对水培系统进行过这种评估。本研究利用有关水培蔬菜中沙门氏菌属浓度、HGT 效率、内化概率和速率、蔬菜消费模式和剂量-反应关系的文献值,对水培蔬菜进行了定量微生物风险评估。此外,还通过计算斯皮尔曼相关系数进行了敏感性分析,以确定对所有沙门氏菌属的单次接触感染概率有重大影响的因素。估计每人每年感染所有沙门氏菌属的概率为 2.04 × 10-1,而感染获得 ARGs 的沙门氏菌属的概率为 2.54 × 10-6。我们的敏感性分析表明,内吸发生率与水培污染水平之间存在相关性,这突出表明有必要提高人们的认识并采取监管措施。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring transboundary disease spread - ASF in wild boars straddling Piedmont and Liguria 测量跨境疾病传播 - 跨越皮埃蒙特和利古里亚的野猪感染 ASF
IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329
Nicoletta Vitale , Paola Barzanti , Ines Crescio Maria , Rosanna Desiato , Lisa Guardone , Valeria Listorti , Walter Martelli , Cristiana Maurella , Barbara Moroni , Rosaria Possidente , Francesca Rossi , Giuseppe Ru
The aim of this paper is to describe the impact, dynamics and risk factors of the incursion of the African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detected in early 2022 in the wild boar population straddling Piedmont and Liguria, 24 months after its emergence.
A study area of 4,162.2 km2s, comprising 234 municipalities in Liguria and Piedmont (north-western Italy), along with an external buffer zone, was considered. The epidemiological units were wild boars tested for ASF using real-time PCR between late December 2021 and December 31, 2023. The data were obtained from passive and active surveillance. Conventional methodologies were applied in the analysis of time series of tests, cases, or prevalence rates of positive animals. Maps were used to visualise and compare the monitoring activities, the location of cases and municipal standardised prevalence ratios. Clustering of high and low trends was studied by semester using a space-time permutation model. Risk factors analysis was based on multivariate Poisson regression modelling.
Over the 2-year study period, the epidemic's spread was closely monitored by testing 10,412 wild boars (25 % of them from passive surveillance). Probability of disease detection was 10.9 times higher among found dead animals compared with animals tested in active surveillance. Difficulties in carcass searching led to heterogeneities in surveillance sensitivity achieved locally and inherent uncertainties. A total of 1,165 wild boars that tested positive for ASF have been detected in 125 municipalities across three provinces. The outbreak has expanded over time and exhibited an increasing trend, with an epidemic doubling time of 10.7 months. There was seasonality, with an increasing trend from summer to spring. Prevalence rates followed the same temporal pattern. Significant low and high clusters respectively indicated endemic episodes in the interior areas of virus circulation and an ongoing invasion of surrounding regions.
The characteristics of this outbreak align with the cycle of wild boar habitat transmission observed in other outbreaks across Europe. The measures implemented were not sufficient to stop the epidemic: however, targeted interventions such as depopulation campaigns, reinforcement of physical barriers and increased biosecurity measures have prevented local spillover to domestic pigs and partially hindered the advance of the disease. In addition, the shown seasonality of the disease, likely can enhance control measures. The ongoing studies of the local wild boar populations and the evolution the epidemic along with the lessons learned so far will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of efforts to limit and ultimately eradicate the disease.
本文旨在描述非洲猪瘟(ASF)病毒出现 24 个月后,于 2022 年初在横跨皮埃蒙特和利古里亚的野猪种群中发现的影响、动态和风险因素。研究区域面积为 4,162.2 平方公里,包括利古里亚和皮埃蒙特(意大利西北部)的 234 个市镇以及外部缓冲区。流行病学单位是 2021 年 12 月底至 2023 年 12 月 31 日期间使用实时 PCR 进行 ASF 检测的野猪。数据来自被动和主动监测。常规方法用于分析检测、病例或阳性动物流行率的时间序列。地图用于直观显示和比较监测活动、病例地点和城市标准化流行率。利用时空置换模型对高趋势和低趋势的聚类进行了学期研究。在两年的研究期间,通过检测 10,412 头野猪(其中 25% 来自被动监测)密切监控了疫情的传播。与主动监测中检测到的动物相比,在发现的死亡动物中发现疾病的概率要高出 10.9 倍。尸体搜寻的困难导致了当地监测灵敏度的差异和固有的不确定性。在三个省的 125 个城市中,共检测到 1,165 头野猪对 ASF 呈阳性反应。随着时间的推移,疫情不断扩大,呈上升趋势,疫情翻倍时间为 10.7 个月。疫情有季节性,从夏季到春季呈上升趋势。流行率也呈现相同的时间模式。显著的低群集和高群集分别表明病毒传播的内部地区出现了流行性发作,并正在向周边地区入侵。所采取的措施并不足以阻止疫情:然而,有针对性的干预措施,如扑杀运动、加强物理屏障和强化生物安全措施,防止了疫情在当地蔓延到家猪,并部分阻碍了疫情的发展。此外,该疾病显示出的季节性很可能会加强控制措施。对当地野猪种群和疫情演变情况的持续研究以及迄今为止获得的经验教训将提高限制和最终根除该疾病的效率和效果。
{"title":"Measuring transboundary disease spread - ASF in wild boars straddling Piedmont and Liguria","authors":"Nicoletta Vitale ,&nbsp;Paola Barzanti ,&nbsp;Ines Crescio Maria ,&nbsp;Rosanna Desiato ,&nbsp;Lisa Guardone ,&nbsp;Valeria Listorti ,&nbsp;Walter Martelli ,&nbsp;Cristiana Maurella ,&nbsp;Barbara Moroni ,&nbsp;Rosaria Possidente ,&nbsp;Francesca Rossi ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Ru","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this paper is to describe the impact, dynamics and risk factors of the incursion of the African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detected in early 2022 in the wild boar population straddling Piedmont and Liguria, 24 months after its emergence.</div><div>A study area of 4,162.2 km<sup>2</sup>s, comprising 234 municipalities in Liguria and Piedmont (north-western Italy), along with an external buffer zone, was considered. The epidemiological units were wild boars tested for ASF using real-time PCR between late December 2021 and December 31, 2023. The data were obtained from passive and active surveillance. Conventional methodologies were applied in the analysis of time series of tests, cases, or prevalence rates of positive animals. Maps were used to visualise and compare the monitoring activities, the location of cases and municipal standardised prevalence ratios. Clustering of high and low trends was studied by semester using a space-time permutation model. Risk factors analysis was based on multivariate Poisson regression modelling.</div><div>Over the 2-year study period, the epidemic's spread was closely monitored by testing 10,412 wild boars (25 % of them from passive surveillance). Probability of disease detection was 10.9 times higher among found dead animals compared with animals tested in active surveillance. Difficulties in carcass searching led to heterogeneities in surveillance sensitivity achieved locally and inherent uncertainties. A total of 1,165 wild boars that tested positive for ASF have been detected in 125 municipalities across three provinces. The outbreak has expanded over time and exhibited an increasing trend, with an epidemic doubling time of 10.7 months. There was seasonality, with an increasing trend from summer to spring. Prevalence rates followed the same temporal pattern. Significant low and high clusters respectively indicated endemic episodes in the interior areas of virus circulation and an ongoing invasion of surrounding regions.</div><div>The characteristics of this outbreak align with the cycle of wild boar habitat transmission observed in other outbreaks across Europe. The measures implemented were not sufficient to stop the epidemic: however, targeted interventions such as depopulation campaigns, reinforcement of physical barriers and increased biosecurity measures have prevented local spillover to domestic pigs and partially hindered the advance of the disease. In addition, the shown seasonality of the disease, likely can enhance control measures. The ongoing studies of the local wild boar populations and the evolution the epidemic along with the lessons learned so far will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of efforts to limit and ultimately eradicate the disease.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100329"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142658933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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Microbial Risk Analysis
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