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A participatory virtual audit of the built environment for age-friendliness. 一个参与式的虚拟审计,为老年人友好的建筑环境。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00422-w
Angela Curl, Alison Watkins, Amanda Smithies, Cushla Dares, Tessa Pocock, Jonathan Williman, Verity Todd, Bridget Dicker, Sally Keeling

Background: Geospatial studies that consider the relationships between the built environment and health typically rely on researcher-led 'objective' measurement of geospatial attributes of the built environment. Some studies can fail to find expected associations between environments and health outcomes where the geospatial measures do not reflect the experiences or perceptions of people themselves. We took a participatory approach to work with older adults with a concern for falling to assess the built environment in order that we could understand how their assessments relate to researcher assessments. We also wanted to assess whether specific demographic characteristics explained differences in assessments of the built environment between participants. Age-friendly environments can contribute to healthy active ageing. Falling and a fear of falling can lead to restricted outdoor activity. Therefore, understanding how the built environment contributes to fear of falling is important for age-friendly environments.

Methods: The study is a cross-sectional retrospective observational study of the built environment. We worked with older adults in workshop settings to undertake community audits of the built environment in Google Street View. They assessed locations where a fall had occurred. Researchers separately audited the same locations. We used descriptive statistics and ordinal regression cumulative link mixed models to estimate the odds that community members would rank a location one level higher than the researchers.

Results: There are significant differences in researcher and community auditor assessments of locations of attractiveness. Site related and individual attributes explain variation in how difficult locations were rated for walking, and for concern about falling. Only individual attributes explained variation in site attractiveness. Locations with more trip hazards and steeper slopes were rated as being more difficult to walk and were associated with greater concern for falling.

Conclusions: Attributes of the built environment influence perceptions of difficulty walking and concern or falling at specific locations. Furthermore, there are some differences in how researchers and community auditors assess the same locations, meaning that geospatial studies which rely only on researcher assessments may be prone to bias. Involving older people in geospatial studies that measure age-friendly environments can make measurement more reflective of their experiences.

背景:考虑建筑环境与健康之间关系的地理空间研究通常依赖于研究人员主导的对建筑环境地理空间属性的“客观”测量。有些研究可能无法发现环境与健康结果之间的预期关联,因为地理空间措施没有反映人们自己的经验或看法。我们采取了一种参与式的方法,与关心跌倒的老年人一起评估建筑环境,以便我们能够了解他们的评估与研究人员的评估之间的关系。我们还想评估特定的人口统计学特征是否解释了参与者对建筑环境评估的差异。对老年人友好的环境有助于健康积极的老年生活。跌倒和害怕跌倒会导致户外活动受限。因此,了解建筑环境是如何导致人们对跌倒的恐惧的,这对老年人友好型环境非常重要。方法:本研究是对建筑环境的横断面回顾性观察研究。在谷歌街景中,我们与老年人一起工作,对建筑环境进行社区审计。他们评估了发生坠落的地点。研究人员分别审查了相同的地点。我们使用描述性统计和有序回归累积联系混合模型来估计社区成员将一个地点比研究人员高一级的可能性。结果:研究人员和社区审计员对吸引力地点的评估存在显著差异。地点相关属性和个人属性解释了人们对行走的困难程度和对跌倒的担忧程度的差异。只有个体属性才能解释网站吸引力的变化。有更多绊倒危险和更陡峭斜坡的地方被评为更难以行走,并且更容易摔倒。结论:建筑环境的属性影响行走困难和在特定位置关注或跌倒的感知。此外,研究人员和社区审核员在评估相同地点的方式上存在一些差异,这意味着仅依赖于研究人员评估的地理空间研究可能容易产生偏差。让老年人参与测量老年人友好环境的地理空间研究,可以使测量更能反映他们的经历。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial modeling of the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes in Madagascar. 马达加斯加按蚊种群动态的空间模拟。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00424-8
Hobiniaina Anthonio Rakotoarison, Thiery Nirina Nepomichene, Hélène Guis, Romain Girod, Solofoarisoa Rakotoniaina, Fanjasoa Rakotomanana, Annelise Tran

Background: Malaria, whose parasites are transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a major public health burden in Madagascar despite the control measures led by the National Malaria Control Program. Understanding the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes is therefore essential to optimize malaria surveillance and control. This study aimed to develop a model incorporating environmental, climatic and agricultural determinants of Anopheles abundance to predict their spatiotemporal distribution.

Methods: We developed a model of spatiotemporal dynamics for four Anopheles species, vectors of malaria parasite in Madagascar: Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles coustani, Anopheles funestus and Anopheles gambiae. This model was based on the life cycle of Anopheles and accounted for both the aquatic and aerial phases of their development. It used a system of differential equations to estimate the number of Anopheles mosquitoes at each stage of development. The Ocelet language, dedicated to the modeling of spatial dynamics, was used to produce simulations based on climate and environmental data. The model explicitly integrates the agricultural calendar to adjust the environmental carrying capacity of larval habitats. Model outputs were validated with entomological data collected in Vohimasy (Farafangana districts, 2014-2017).

Results: 24 simulation outputs, from three Anopheles species and eight sites, were obtained and the validation revealed a significant correlation between field observations and model predictions: the correlation coefficients obtained ranged from 0.70 to 0.76. The predicted abundance of host-seeking Anopheles varied seasonally influenced by precipitation, temperature and environmental carrying capacity. The model exhibited robustness across sites with diverse climates and accurately reproduced interannual dynamics. The integration of the agricultural calendar significantly reduced the overestimation of the density of host-seeking adult females.

Conclusion: The developed Anopheles dynamics model provides a valuable tool for predicting mosquito abundance and distribution over time and space. It correctly predicted the abundance at villages with contrasting climates and reproduced interannual dynamics well. A distinctive aspect of this work lies in the explicit integration of seasonal agricultural practices into the estimation of larval habitat availability. This allows for a more accurate and transferable modeling of Anopheles population dynamics.

背景:尽管国家疟疾控制规划采取了控制措施,但疟疾(其寄生虫由按蚊传播)仍然是马达加斯加的一个主要公共卫生负担。因此,了解按蚊种群动态对优化疟疾监测和控制至关重要。本研究旨在建立一个结合环境、气候和农业因素的按蚊丰度模型来预测其时空分布。方法:建立了马达加斯加4种疟蚊的时空动态模型,分别为阿拉伯按蚊、库斯坦按蚊、富氏按蚊和冈比亚按蚊。该模型基于按蚊的生命周期,并考虑了它们的水生和空中发育阶段。它使用一个微分方程系统来估计按蚊在每个发展阶段的数量。致力于空间动力学建模的Ocelet语言被用于根据气候和环境数据进行模拟。该模型明确整合了农业日历,以调整幼虫栖息地的环境承载能力。利用2014-2017年在Vohimasy (Farafangana地区)收集的昆虫学数据对模型输出进行验证。结果:从3种按蚊和8个地点获得了24个模拟输出,验证结果表明现场观测与模型预测之间存在显著的相关性,相关系数在0.70 ~ 0.76之间。受降水、温度和环境承载能力的影响,寻找寄主按蚊的预测丰度随季节变化。该模型在不同气候条件下具有较强的稳健性,并能准确再现年际动态。农业日历的整合显著降低了对寻找寄主的成年雌性密度的高估。结论:所建立的按蚊动态模型为预测蚊虫数量和时空分布提供了有价值的工具。它准确地预测了不同气候条件下村庄的丰度,较好地再现了年际动态。这项工作的一个独特方面在于将季节性农业实践明确纳入对幼虫栖息地可用性的估计。这使得按蚊种群动态的建模更加准确和可转移。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial spillover effects of area-level socioeconomic factors on life expectancy in Japan: an ecological study. 日本地区社会经济因素对预期寿命的空间溢出效应:一个生态学研究。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00417-7
Ayu Tabuchi, Tomohiro Shinozaki, Yuichi Imanaka

Background: Area-level socioeconomic status is a well-established determinant of geographical disparities in life expectancy. However, limited attention has been paid to spatial spillover effects, whereby socioeconomic conditions in neighbouring regions influence health outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the direct and spatial spillover effects of socioeconomic factors on life expectancy in Japan and to explore possible mechanisms underlying the observed spillover patterns.

Methods: Life expectancy at birth by sex at the municipal level in Japan for 2020 was the outcome variable. A spatial Durbin error model was used to estimate the direct and spatial spillover effects of ten regional socioeconomic factors, along with six control variables, on life expectancy. To ensure robustness, six spatial weight matrices were used. The results were compared with those obtained from a non-spatial linear regression model.

Results: Moran's I values for the residuals of the non-spatial model were statistically significant, indicating spatial autocorrelation. The unemployment rate and the proportion of individuals with no high school diploma showed negative direct and spillover effects, suggesting that being surrounded by regions with employment instability and low educational attainment is associated with lower life expectancy. Taxable income per capita showed no statistically significant spillover effects.

Conclusion: The findings indicate that socioeconomic conditions in neighbouring regions, in addition to those within a region, are associated with life expectancy. The observed spillover effects for employment and education support the role of collective resources in shaping regional health. These results indicate the need to incorporate interregional socioeconomic contexts into public health strategies to address geographical disparities in health.

背景:区域水平的社会经济地位是预期寿命地域差异的一个公认的决定因素。然而,对空间溢出效应的关注有限,即邻近区域的社会经济条件影响健康结果。本研究旨在评估日本社会经济因素对预期寿命的直接和空间溢出效应,并探讨所观察到的溢出模式的可能机制。方法:2020年日本市级按性别划分的出生时预期寿命为结果变量。利用空间德宾误差模型估计了10个区域社会经济因素以及6个控制变量对预期寿命的直接和空间溢出效应。为了保证鲁棒性,使用了6个空间权重矩阵。结果与非空间线性回归模型的结果进行了比较。结果:非空间模型残差的Moran’s I值具有统计学意义,表明空间自相关。失业率和无高中学历人口比例表现出负的直接和溢出效应,表明被就业不稳定和受教育程度低的地区所包围与较低的预期寿命有关。人均应税收入没有统计学上显著的溢出效应。结论:研究结果表明,除了一个地区内的社会经济条件外,邻近地区的社会经济条件也与预期寿命有关。观察到的对就业和教育的溢出效应支持集体资源在形成区域卫生方面的作用。这些结果表明,需要将区域间社会经济背景纳入公共卫生战略,以解决卫生方面的地理差异。
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引用次数: 0
Is the neighbourhood environment associated with indicators of health in children and adolescents? Developing and testing a new proof-of-concept Healthy Environments Index for Children in Taranaki, New Zealand. 邻里环境是否与儿童和青少年的健康指标有关?在新西兰塔拉纳基制定和测试新的概念验证儿童健康环境指数。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00409-7
Jesse Whitehead, Melody Smith, Yvonne Anderson, José G B Derraik, Niamh Donnellan

Background: We describe the development of a comprehensive proof-of-concept index of environmental exposures for children based on evidence-informed connections to health behaviours- the Healthy Environments Index for Children (HEIC) - with two sub-indices relating to the food environment (HEIC-FE) and physical activity environment (HEIC-PA) in Taranaki, New Zealand. Associations between this theory-informed index and health outcomes in a cohort of children and adolescents identified with overweight or obesity and enrolled in a community-based healthy lifestyle programme and randomised controlled trial were examined.

Methods: The HIEC was developed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and 15 variables selected from a series of systematic literature reviews identifying environmental factors associated with childhood obesity. Activity spaces around each participant's residential address, and the route to their nearest school were created and used to estimate environmental exposure. Health data from the Whānau Pakari randomised controlled trial (n = 179 at baseline, 121 at 12-months, 95 at 24-months) was integrated to test associations between HEIC and health outcomes. Statistical analyses included spearman rank correlations, multinomial linear regression, and geographically weighted regression.

Results: Higher HEIC scores (indicating health-promoting environments) tended to be clustered within the cities and towns, while rural areas had low HEIC scores. Strong and consistent associations were not identified between HEIC indices and health outcomes in our study population. However, higher HEIC food environments were associated with increased water intake and decreased sweet drink intake at 24-months.

Conclusions: The theory-informed HEIC and its two subindices may be useful tools for policy and practice aiming at improving child health outcomes. However, they require validation in larger studies in other areas of New Zealand.

背景:我们描述了基于证据与健康行为联系的儿童环境暴露综合概念验证指数的发展-儿童健康环境指数(HEIC) -与新西兰塔拉纳基的食物环境(HEIC- fe)和身体活动环境(HEIC- pa)相关的两个子指数。在一组被确定为超重或肥胖的儿童和青少年中,并参加了社区健康生活方式计划和随机对照试验,研究了这一理论知情指数与健康结果之间的关系。方法:利用地理信息系统(GIS)和从一系列系统文献综述中选择的15个变量开发HIEC,确定与儿童肥胖相关的环境因素。在每个参与者的居住地址周围创建活动空间,以及到最近的学校的路线,并用于估计环境暴露。整合Whānau Pakari随机对照试验(基线时n = 179, 12个月时121,24个月时95)的健康数据,以测试HEIC与健康结果之间的关联。统计分析包括spearman秩相关、多项线性回归和地理加权回归。结果:较高的HEIC得分(表明促进健康的环境)倾向于聚集在城镇,而农村地区HEIC得分较低。在我们的研究人群中,HEIC指数和健康结果之间没有发现强烈和一致的关联。然而,高HEIC食物环境与24个月时水摄入量增加和甜饮料摄入量减少有关。结论:以理论为依据的HEIC及其两个子指数可能是旨在改善儿童健康结果的政策和实践的有用工具。然而,它们需要在新西兰其他地区进行更大规模的研究。
{"title":"Is the neighbourhood environment associated with indicators of health in children and adolescents? Developing and testing a new proof-of-concept Healthy Environments Index for Children in Taranaki, New Zealand.","authors":"Jesse Whitehead, Melody Smith, Yvonne Anderson, José G B Derraik, Niamh Donnellan","doi":"10.1186/s12942-025-00409-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12942-025-00409-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>We describe the development of a comprehensive proof-of-concept index of environmental exposures for children based on evidence-informed connections to health behaviours- the Healthy Environments Index for Children (HEIC) - with two sub-indices relating to the food environment (HEIC-FE) and physical activity environment (HEIC-PA) in Taranaki, New Zealand. Associations between this theory-informed index and health outcomes in a cohort of children and adolescents identified with overweight or obesity and enrolled in a community-based healthy lifestyle programme and randomised controlled trial were examined.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The HIEC was developed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and 15 variables selected from a series of systematic literature reviews identifying environmental factors associated with childhood obesity. Activity spaces around each participant's residential address, and the route to their nearest school were created and used to estimate environmental exposure. Health data from the Whānau Pakari randomised controlled trial (n = 179 at baseline, 121 at 12-months, 95 at 24-months) was integrated to test associations between HEIC and health outcomes. Statistical analyses included spearman rank correlations, multinomial linear regression, and geographically weighted regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Higher HEIC scores (indicating health-promoting environments) tended to be clustered within the cities and towns, while rural areas had low HEIC scores. Strong and consistent associations were not identified between HEIC indices and health outcomes in our study population. However, higher HEIC food environments were associated with increased water intake and decreased sweet drink intake at 24-months.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The theory-informed HEIC and its two subindices may be useful tools for policy and practice aiming at improving child health outcomes. However, they require validation in larger studies in other areas of New Zealand.</p>","PeriodicalId":48739,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Health Geographics","volume":"24 1","pages":"32"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12581399/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145439807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Validity and reliability of the virtual audit tool for estimating built-environment characteristics in Taiwan. 台湾地区建筑环境特征评估之虚拟稽核工具之效度与信度。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00419-5
Yi-Chien Yu, Yu-Hsiang Peng, Liang-Rong Chen, Shao-Hsi Chang

Background: Environmental factors significantly influence health behaviors and outcomes. While Google Street View (GSV) has emerged as a cost-effective tool for environmental auditing in various countries, its feasibility in Taiwan remains unexplored. This study aimed to examine the validity and reliability of GSV-based environmental audits in Taiwan.

Methods: Four administrative districts in Taipei representing different population densities and socioeconomic status were selected. A total of 74 street segments within 40 streets were evaluated using both virtual and field audits. The S-VAT was modified to include 8 categories (38 items) of neighborhood characteristics. To assess criterion validity, field and virtual audits were conducted by one rater with a minimum two-week interval. Inter-rater reliability was evaluated by comparing two raters' virtual audit results, while intra-rater reliability was assessed through repeated virtual audits by the same rater. Cohen's Kappa and percentage agreement were used for statistical analysis.

Results: Walking-related (k = 0.768), cycling-related (k = 0.921), and public transport features demonstrated high reliability. Lower reliability was found in aesthetics and grocery stores, primarily due to GSV limitations: aesthetic features (litter, graffiti) were affected by viewing angles and temporal variations, while grocery stores were challenging to assess due to restricted storefront visibility and signage clarity.

Conclusions: The S-VAT demonstrates good validity and reliability for environmental auditing in Taiwan, particularly for transportation-related features. However, caution should be exercised when assessing grocery stores and aesthetic features. This study validates GSV as a feasible tool for conducting environmental audits in Taiwan.

背景:环境因素显著影响健康行为和结果。本研究旨在检验台湾地区基于gv的环境稽核的效度与信度。方法:选取具有不同人口密度及社会经济状况的台北市4个行政区域。使用虚拟和实地审计对40条街道内的74个街道段进行了评估。S-VAT被修改为包含8类(38项)邻里特征。为了评估标准的有效性,现场和虚拟审计由一名评价员进行,间隔至少两周。通过比较两个评价者的虚拟审计结果来评估评价者之间的可靠性,而通过同一评价者的重复虚拟审计来评估评价者之间的可靠性。采用Cohen’s Kappa和百分比一致性进行统计分析。结果:步行相关(k = 0.768)、骑车相关(k = 0.921)和公共交通特征具有较高的信度。美学和杂货店的可靠性较低,主要是由于GSV的限制:美学特征(垃圾,涂鸦)受到视角和时间变化的影响,而杂货店由于店面能见度和标牌清晰度的限制而难以评估。结论:S-VAT在台湾的环境审计中表现出良好的效度和信度,特别是在运输相关的特征上。然而,在评估杂货店和美学特征时,应该谨慎行事。本研究验证了GSV作为一种可行的环境稽核工具。
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引用次数: 0
Self-reported mental distress in the United States: a Bayesian analysis of the spatial structure over the COVID-19 pandemic across age groups. 美国人自我报告的精神痛苦:对COVID-19大流行各年龄组空间结构的贝叶斯分析
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00418-6
Carles Comas, Albert Martínez, Angel Blanch

Background: The COVID-19 had an outstanding impact on well-being and mental health, which might have elicited geographical variations over time. This study examines the eventual impact of COVID-19 on self-reported mental distress in the mainland USA.

Aims: There were two main aims. First, to evaluate the pre-pandemic (2019; [Formula: see text]) and post-pandemic (2021; [Formula: see text]) mental distress spatial distribution. Second, to contrast spatial data across three age groups, young (18-44 years), middle-aged (45-65 years), and old (older than 65 years).

Method: We considered a the Bayesian modified Besag-York-Molliè (BYM2) model, which is a Bayesian hierarchical model. Mental distress was the response variable function of age group, year and spatially structured and unstructured effects.

Results: The main findings indicate a positive spatial dependence between states of general mental distress before and after the COVID-19 and across age groups with substantial unstructured component. Moreover, younger individuals reported higher levels of mental distress and suffered the major worsening due to the pandemic.

Conclusions: COVID-19 had a detrimental impact on mental health across the population, with consistent evidence of positive spatial dependence across states. Notably, young adults emerged as particularly vulnerable, exhibiting concerning levels of mental distress problems and being more sensitive to the effects of the pandemic. Henceforth, young adults might require specific tailored public health policies in eventual major pandemic events.

背景:COVID-19对福祉和心理健康产生了显著影响,随着时间的推移,这可能会引起地理差异。本研究探讨了COVID-19对美国大陆自我报告的精神困扰的最终影响。目的:主要有两个目的。首先,评估大流行前(2019年;[公式:见文本])和大流行后(2021年;[公式:见文本])精神痛苦的空间分布。其次,对青年(18-44岁)、中年(45-65岁)和老年(65岁以上)三个年龄组的空间数据进行对比。方法:我们考虑了一个贝叶斯修正Besag-York-Molliè (BYM2)模型,这是一个贝叶斯层次模型。心理困扰是年龄、年份、空间结构效应和非结构效应的反应变量函数。结果:主要发现新冠肺炎前后一般精神困扰状态与不同年龄组之间存在正空间依赖关系,且存在大量非结构化成分。此外,年轻人报告的精神痛苦程度更高,并因大流行而严重恶化。结论:COVID-19对整个人群的心理健康产生了不利影响,各州都有一致的证据表明存在积极的空间依赖性。值得注意的是,年轻人特别容易受到伤害,表现出令人担忧的精神困扰问题,对大流行病的影响更加敏感。今后,在最终的重大流行病事件中,年轻人可能需要有针对性的公共卫生政策。
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引用次数: 0
Pneumonia incidence and determinants in South Punjab, Pakistan (2016-2020): a spatial epidemiological study at Tehsil-level. 巴基斯坦南旁遮普肺炎发病率及其决定因素(2016-2020年):一项泰西尔层面的空间流行病学研究
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00420-y
Ömer Ünsal, Oliver Gruebner, Munazza Fatima

Background: Pneumonia remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, such as Pakistan. In this study, we aimed to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of pneumonia incidence in South Punjab, Pakistan, and to analyze their association with socio-ecological factors.

Methods: We used case report data from the district health information system (DHIS) over the years 2016 to 2020 and applied global and local Moran's I to identify spatial autocorrelation. Furthermore, we employed hot and cold spot analysis to identify significant areas with high and low pneumonia incidence. We used Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) and time series clustering to examine shifting and temporal patterns of incidence, respectively. In addition, Generalized Linear Regression (GLR) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models were used to analyze geographic variation in the association of socio-ecological factors and pneumonia incidence.

Results: Our results showed no significant global clustering of pneumonia incidence. Local Moran's I identified a low-low cluster in DG Khan, while Hot Spot Analysis detected one hot spot in Rajanpur. Multan City showed higher case counts, but this reflected population concentration rather than elevated incidence rates. The temporal analysis confirmed a significant seasonal variation, as well as a decrease in certain Tehsils and an increase in others. Our MGWR model revealed that better female literacy reduced incidence rates of pneumonia, whereas poor housing quality increased incidence rates of pneumonia, particularly in the southwestern areas of South Punjab.

Conclusions: We conclude that socio-ecological variables significantly influenced the incidence of pneumonia in South Punjab, and this association varies substantially over time and space. Our results emphasize the need for locally specific public health interventions to minimize pneumonia incidence in vulnerable populations in Pakistan. Our spatial epidemiological approach can be adapted to other regions of Pakistan and similar socio-ecological contexts in low- and middle-income countries.

背景:肺炎仍然是发病和死亡的主要原因,特别是在巴基斯坦等低收入和中等收入国家。在这项研究中,我们旨在研究巴基斯坦南旁遮普省肺炎发病率的时空格局,并分析其与社会生态因素的关系。方法:利用2016 - 2020年地区卫生信息系统(DHIS)病例报告数据,应用全球和地方Moran’s I识别空间自相关性。此外,我们采用冷热点分析来识别肺炎高发和低发的显著区域。我们分别使用新兴热点分析(EHSA)和时间序列聚类来研究发病率的变化和时间模式。此外,采用广义线性回归(GLR)和多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型分析了社会生态因素与肺炎发病率相关性的地理变异。结果:我们的研究结果显示肺炎发病率没有明显的全球聚集性。当地Moran's I在DG Khan发现了一个低-低群集,而热点分析在Rajanpur发现了一个热点。木尔坦市的病例数较高,但这反映的是人口集中,而不是发病率升高。时间分析证实了显著的季节变化,以及某些地区的减少和其他地区的增加。我们的MGWR模型显示,女性识字率的提高降低了肺炎的发病率,而住房质量差则增加了肺炎的发病率,特别是在南旁遮普省的西南地区。结论:我们得出结论,社会生态变量显著影响南旁遮普的肺炎发病率,这种关联随时间和空间变化很大。我们的研究结果强调需要针对当地特定的公共卫生干预措施,以尽量减少巴基斯坦弱势人群的肺炎发病率。我们的空间流行病学方法可以适用于巴基斯坦的其他地区以及低收入和中等收入国家的类似社会生态背景。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing spatial variability in observed infectious disease spread in a prospective time-space series. 在前瞻性时空序列中评估观察到的传染病传播的空间变异性。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00411-z
Chih-Chieh Wu, Chien-Hsiun Chen, Shann-Rong Wang, Sanjay Shete

Most of the growing prospective analytic methods in space-time disease surveillance and intended functions of disease surveillance systems focus on earlier detection of disease outbreaks, disease clusters, or increased incidence. The spread of the virus such as SARS-CoV-2 has not been spatially and temporally uniform in an outbreak. With the identification of an infectious disease outbreak, recognizing and evaluating anomalies (excess and decline) of disease incidence spread at the time of occurrence during the course of an outbreak is a logical next step. We propose and formulate a hypergeometric probability model that investigates anomalies of infectious disease incidence spread at the time of occurrence in the timeline for many geographically described populations (e.g., hospitals, towns, counties) in an ongoing daily monitoring process. It is structured to determine whether the incidence grows or declines more rapidly in a region on the single current day or the most recent few days compared to the occurrence of the incidence during the previous few days relative to elsewhere in the surveillance period. The new method uses a time-varying baseline risk model, accounting for regularly (e.g., daily) updated information on disease incidence at the time of occurrence, and evaluates the probability of the deviation of particular frequencies to be attributed to sampling fluctuations, accounting for the unequal variances of the rates due to different population bases in geographical units. We attempt to present and illustrate a new model to advance the investigation of anomalies of infectious disease incidence spread by analyzing subsamples of spatiotemporal disease surveillance data from Taiwan on dengue and COVID-19 incidence which are mosquito-borne and contagious infectious diseases, respectively. Efficient R packages for computation are available to implement the two approximate formulae of the hypergeometric probability model for large numbers of events.

时空疾病监测的前瞻性分析方法和疾病监测系统的预期功能主要集中在疾病爆发、疾病聚集或发病率增加的早期检测上。在疫情中,SARS-CoV-2等病毒的传播在空间和时间上并不均匀。随着传染病暴发的确定,在暴发过程中,识别和评估疾病发生时的异常情况(过量和减少)是合乎逻辑的下一步。我们提出并制定了一个超几何概率模型,该模型在持续的日常监测过程中,调查了许多地理上描述的人群(例如,医院,城镇,县)在时间轴上发生传染病发病率传播的异常情况。其结构是为了确定某一区域的发病率在当天或最近几天的增长或下降速度是否比在监测期内其他地方的前几天发病率的发生速度更快。新方法使用一种时变基线风险模型,考虑到疾病发生时定期(例如每天)更新的发病率信息,并评估由于抽样波动导致的特定频率偏差的可能性,考虑到地理单位内不同人口基础造成的发病率差异不相等。本文通过对台湾省蚊媒传染病登革热和传染性传染病COVID-19发病率时空监测数据的亚样本分析,提出并阐述了一种新的模型,以推进传染病发病率传播异常的调查。利用高效的R计算包实现了大事件数的超几何概率模型的两个近似公式。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the stability of gun violence patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Syracuse, New York. 分析纽约州锡拉丘兹市新冠肺炎大流行期间枪支暴力模式的稳定性
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00412-y
Peng Gao, Sarah E Van Horne, David A Larsen, Robert A Rubinstein, Sandra D Lane

Gun violence is a leading cause of death in the United States. Understanding the geospatial patterns of gun violence and how the COVID-19 pandemic may have affected them is essential for developing evidence-based prevention strategies. This study investigates whether COVID-19 altered the geospatial patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York. To assess spatial and temporal trends, we analyzed the annual total gunshots (ATG) from 2009-2023 aggregated in census block groups and applied geospatial techniques including mean center, standard distance, Moran's I, and Getis-Ord Gi*. The ATG number was higher before the pandemic than during the pandemic, something not observed in other studies. Its geographic centers before and during the pandemic clustered within or near one census block and the associated standard distance remained similar between the two periods. Both global patterns and local clusters of ATG in the two periods not only showed similar patterns and consistent local hotspots located in similar areas, but also logarithmically related to the ATG number with statistical significance, suggesting that gun violence rates intensified within established areas rather than spreading citywide and demonstrated a similar distance-decay effect in both periods. This effect suggests that the incidence of gunshots diminished with increasing distance from the core concentrated zone, challenging assumptions of spatial spillover or contagion models in crime studies. These findings suggest that entrenched structural conditions, such as neighborhood-level socioeconomic disparities, are the primary drivers of gun violence patterns, rather than temporary pandemic-related policies. Methodologically, the study highlights the importance of long-term, meso-scale geospatial analyses to uncover persistent violence dynamics and guide preventive interventions. We argue that future violence prevention strategies should focus on enduring geospatial patterns of gun violence and their underlying structural determinants, rather than reacting solely to short-term fluctuations in incident frequency.

在美国,枪支暴力是导致死亡的主要原因。了解枪支暴力的地理空间模式以及COVID-19大流行可能对其产生的影响,对于制定循证预防战略至关重要。这项研究调查了COVID-19是否改变了纽约州锡拉丘兹市枪支暴力的地理空间模式。为了评估空间和时间趋势,我们分析了2009-2023年人口普查街区的年度总枪击事件(ATG),并应用了地理空间技术,包括平均中心、标准距离、Moran’s I和Getis-Ord Gi*。大流行前的ATG数量高于大流行期间,这在其他研究中没有观察到。其地理中心在大流行之前和期间聚集在一个人口普查区域内或附近,相关的标准距离在两个时期之间保持相似。两个时期枪支暴力事件的全球格局和地方集群不仅表现出相似的格局和相似区域的局部热点一致,而且与枪支暴力事件数量呈对数相关,且具有统计学显著性,表明两时期枪支暴力事件发生率在建成区内加剧,而不是在全市范围内扩散,并表现出相似的距离衰减效应。这一效应表明,随着距离核心集中区的距离增加,枪击事件的发生率会降低,这对犯罪研究中空间溢出或传染模型的假设提出了挑战。这些调查结果表明,根深蒂固的结构性条件,如社区一级的社会经济差距,是枪支暴力模式的主要驱动因素,而不是与流行病有关的临时政策。在方法上,该研究强调了长期中尺度地理空间分析对揭示持续暴力动态和指导预防性干预的重要性。我们认为,未来的暴力预防战略应侧重于枪支暴力的持久地理空间模式及其潜在的结构性决定因素,而不是仅仅对事件频率的短期波动作出反应。
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引用次数: 0
Socio-spatial inequalities in accessibility of Indigenous community-controlled mental health services in South East Queensland, Australia. 澳大利亚昆士兰东南部土著社区控制的精神卫生服务可及性方面的社会空间不平等。
IF 3 2区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-025-00415-9
Lihong Zhang, Yan Liu, Lu Jin, Xiang-Yu Hou, Sandra Diminic, Xiaoyun Zhou, Shuichi Suetani, Carmel Nelson, Roxanne Bainbridge

Background: Mental disorders significantly burden Indigenous communities, worsened by limited culturally appropriate services. Spatial inequalities in access further disadvantage Indigenous peoples, especially in socio-economically challenged areas. This paper measures the spatial accessibility of Indigenous community-controlled mental health services in South East Queensland, Australia and examines its social inequalities across the region.

Methods: We considered both population and health service providers' capacity to maximise service coverage in measuring potential access to the services. Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technologies, a Gaussian-based two-step floating catchment area (G2SFCA) method was applied to quantify accessibility under four driving time thresholds ranging from 15 to 60 minutes. Bivariate global and local Moran's I statistics were used to analyse social inequalities in accessibility across various geographical areas.

Results: Accessibility was higher in urban areas than those towards the peri-urban and rural areas; the overall spatial coverage was relatively limited for service access within the 15- or 30-minute driving time threshold, compared with the 45- or 60-minute driving time threshold. Lower levels of accessibility were identified in areas with a concentration of Indigenous and socio-economically disadvantaged populations.

Conclusions: This study advances a socially informed spatial inequality assessment framework. Unlike previous research exploring accessibility qualitatively, our framework innovatively integrates spatial analysis, Indigenous-specific population data and culturally sensitive provider capacity metrics within an advanced G2SFCA model. This approach uniquely exposes the compounded socio-spatial barriers to mental health services for Indigenous populations across South East Queensland's urban-rural continuum. The resulting accessibility and inequality maps, combined with a summary of focus areas and their associated socio-demographic profiles, provide a direct policy lever to prioritise intervention for Indigenous communities experiencing the greatest disadvantage. By bridging spatial analysis with Indigenous cultural contexts, this work offers a replicable model for equitable, community-driven healthcare resource allocation for Indigenous peoples globally.

背景:精神障碍给土著社区造成了沉重负担,而文化上适当的服务有限使情况更加恶化。获取机会的空间不平等进一步使土著人民处于不利地位,特别是在社会经济困难的地区。本文测量了澳大利亚昆士兰东南部土著社区控制的精神卫生服务的空间可达性,并考察了该地区的社会不平等。方法:我们考虑了人口和卫生服务提供者在衡量服务的潜在可及性时最大限度地扩大服务覆盖率的能力。利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术,采用基于高斯的两步浮动集水区(G2SFCA)方法,量化了15 ~ 60分钟四个驾驶时间阈值下的可达性。双变量全球和地方Moran's I统计数据用于分析不同地理区域可达性的社会不平等。结果:城区可达性高于城郊和农村地区;与45分钟或60分钟的驾驶时间阈值相比,15或30分钟的驾驶时间阈值内的总体空间覆盖范围相对有限。在土著居民和社会经济上处于不利地位的人口集中的地区,无障碍程度较低。结论:本研究提出了一个社会知情的空间不平等评估框架。与以往定性探索可达性的研究不同,我们的框架创新地将空间分析、土著特定人口数据和文化敏感的提供者能力指标集成在一个先进的G2SFCA模型中。这种方法独特地暴露了昆士兰州东南部城乡连续区的土著居民心理健康服务面临的复杂的社会空间障碍。由此产生的无障碍和不平等地图,加上重点领域的摘要及其相关的社会人口概况,提供了一个直接的政策杠杆,可以优先考虑对处境最不利的土著社区进行干预。通过将空间分析与土著文化背景相结合,这项工作为全球土著人民公平、社区驱动的医疗资源分配提供了一个可复制的模型。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Health Geographics
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