Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00513-x
Xinmeng Shan, Paolo Scussolini, Jun Wang, Mengya Li, Jiahong Wen, Lei Wang
Abstract Socioeconomic development, subsidence, and climate change have led to high flood risks in coastal cities, making the vulnerable, especially elderly people, more prone to floods. However, we mostly do not know how the accessibility of life-saving public resources for the elderly population will change under future scenarios. Using Shanghai as a case, this study introduced a new analytical framework to fill this gap. We integrated for the first time models of coastal flooding, local population growth, and medical resource supply-demand estimation. The results show that under an extreme scenario of coastal flooding in the year 2050, in the absence of adaptation, half of the elderly population may be exposed to floods, the supply of medical resources will be seriously insufficient compared to the demand, and the accessibility of emergency medical services will be impaired by flooding. Our methodology can be applied to gain insights for other vulnerable coastal cities, to assist robust decision making about emergency responses to flood risks for elderly populations in an uncertain future.
{"title":"Deficiency of Healthcare Accessibility of Elderly People Exposed to Future Extreme Coastal Floods: A Case Study of Shanghai, China","authors":"Xinmeng Shan, Paolo Scussolini, Jun Wang, Mengya Li, Jiahong Wen, Lei Wang","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00513-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00513-x","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Socioeconomic development, subsidence, and climate change have led to high flood risks in coastal cities, making the vulnerable, especially elderly people, more prone to floods. However, we mostly do not know how the accessibility of life-saving public resources for the elderly population will change under future scenarios. Using Shanghai as a case, this study introduced a new analytical framework to fill this gap. We integrated for the first time models of coastal flooding, local population growth, and medical resource supply-demand estimation. The results show that under an extreme scenario of coastal flooding in the year 2050, in the absence of adaptation, half of the elderly population may be exposed to floods, the supply of medical resources will be seriously insufficient compared to the demand, and the accessibility of emergency medical services will be impaired by flooding. Our methodology can be applied to gain insights for other vulnerable coastal cities, to assist robust decision making about emergency responses to flood risks for elderly populations in an uncertain future.","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136153024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00522-w
Ashjan Alharazi, Abdulellah Al Thobaity
Abstract In 2018, the Emergency, Disasters and Ambulatory Transportation General Department at the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia established hospital emergency planning and preparation units (HEPPUs) to improve hospitals’ ability to respond to disasters. This study aimed to gain an in-depth understanding of the functioning of HEPPUs within hospitals in the western region of Saudi Arabia. Qualitative research methodology and semistructured interviews with emergency managers were employed. Four key themes emerged from the data: establishment and evolution, roles and responsibilities, communication and coordination, and challenges and limitations. The findings emphasize the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, effective communication, and responses to challenges in enhancing healthcare resilience and disaster management. This study contributes insights and offers practical recommendations for improving the preparedness and performance of HEPPUs within Saudi Arabian hospitals.
{"title":"From Planning to Execution: Delving into the Crucial Role and Challenges of HEPPUs in Hospital Emergency Management","authors":"Ashjan Alharazi, Abdulellah Al Thobaity","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00522-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00522-w","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In 2018, the Emergency, Disasters and Ambulatory Transportation General Department at the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia established hospital emergency planning and preparation units (HEPPUs) to improve hospitals’ ability to respond to disasters. This study aimed to gain an in-depth understanding of the functioning of HEPPUs within hospitals in the western region of Saudi Arabia. Qualitative research methodology and semistructured interviews with emergency managers were employed. Four key themes emerged from the data: establishment and evolution, roles and responsibilities, communication and coordination, and challenges and limitations. The findings emphasize the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, effective communication, and responses to challenges in enhancing healthcare resilience and disaster management. This study contributes insights and offers practical recommendations for improving the preparedness and performance of HEPPUs within Saudi Arabian hospitals.","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136129268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Owing to the complexity and variability of global climate, the study of extreme events to ensure food security is particularly critical. The standardized precipitation requirement index (SPRI) and chilling injury index (I Ci ) were introduced using data from agrometeorological stations on the Songliao Plain between 1981 and 2020 to identify the spatial and temporal variability of drought, waterlogging, and low-temperature cold damage during various maize growth periods. Compound drought and low-temperature cold damage events (CDLEs) and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage events (CWLEs) were then identified. To measure the intensity of compound events, the compound drought and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CDLMI), and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CWLMI) were constructed by fitting marginal distributions. Finally, the effects of extreme events of various intensities on maize output were examined. The findings demonstrate that: (1) There were significant differences in the temporal trends of the SPRI and I Ci during different maize growth periods. Drought predominated in the middle growth period (MP), waterlogging predominated in the early growth period (EP) and late growth period (LP), and both drought and waterlogging tended to increase in intensity and frequency. The frequency of low-temperature cold damage showed a decreasing trend in all periods. (2) The CDLMI and CWLMI can effectively determine the intensity of CDLEs and CWLEs in the study area; these CDLEs and CWLEs had higher intensity and frequency in the late growth period. (3) Compared to single events, maize relative meteorological yield had a more significant negative correlation with the CDLMI and CWLMI.
{"title":"Quantifying Multi-hazards and Impacts Over Different Growth Periods of Maize: A Study Based on Index Construction","authors":"Dan Chen, Ying Guo, Rui Wang, Yunmeng Zhao, Kaiwei Li, Jiquan Zhang, Xingpeng Liu, Zhijun Tong, Chunli Zhao","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00516-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00516-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Owing to the complexity and variability of global climate, the study of extreme events to ensure food security is particularly critical. The standardized precipitation requirement index (SPRI) and chilling injury index (I Ci ) were introduced using data from agrometeorological stations on the Songliao Plain between 1981 and 2020 to identify the spatial and temporal variability of drought, waterlogging, and low-temperature cold damage during various maize growth periods. Compound drought and low-temperature cold damage events (CDLEs) and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage events (CWLEs) were then identified. To measure the intensity of compound events, the compound drought and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CDLMI), and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CWLMI) were constructed by fitting marginal distributions. Finally, the effects of extreme events of various intensities on maize output were examined. The findings demonstrate that: (1) There were significant differences in the temporal trends of the SPRI and I Ci during different maize growth periods. Drought predominated in the middle growth period (MP), waterlogging predominated in the early growth period (EP) and late growth period (LP), and both drought and waterlogging tended to increase in intensity and frequency. The frequency of low-temperature cold damage showed a decreasing trend in all periods. (2) The CDLMI and CWLMI can effectively determine the intensity of CDLEs and CWLEs in the study area; these CDLEs and CWLEs had higher intensity and frequency in the late growth period. (3) Compared to single events, maize relative meteorological yield had a more significant negative correlation with the CDLMI and CWLMI.","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136152085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00519-5
Junqing Tang, Song Han, Jing Wang, Baojie He, Jinhan Peng
Abstract Since the proposal of the pioneering “resilience triangle” paradigm, various time-series performance-based metrics have been devised for resilience quantification. The numerous choices diversify the toolbox for measuring this compound system concept; however, this multiplicity causes intractable questions for applications, including “Do these metrics measure the same resilience?” and “Which one to pick under what circumstance?” In this study, we attempted to address these two fundamental issues using a comprehensive comparative investigation. Through a quantitative-qualitative combined approach, 12 popular performance-based resilience metrics are compared using empirical data from China’s aviation system under the disturbance of COVID-19. Quantitative results indicate that only 12 of the 66 metric pairs are strongly positively correlated and with no significant differences in quantification outcomes; qualitative results indicate that the majority of the metrics are based on different definition interpretations, basic components, and expression forms, and thus essentially measure different resilience. The advantages and disadvantages of each metric are comparatively discussed, and a “how to choose” guideline for metric users is proposed. This study is an introspective investigation of resilience quantification studies, aiming to offer a new perspective to scrutinize those benchmarking metrics.
{"title":"A Comparative Analysis of Performance-Based Resilience Metrics via a Quantitative-Qualitative Combined Approach: Are We Measuring the Same Thing?","authors":"Junqing Tang, Song Han, Jing Wang, Baojie He, Jinhan Peng","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00519-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00519-5","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Since the proposal of the pioneering “resilience triangle” paradigm, various time-series performance-based metrics have been devised for resilience quantification. The numerous choices diversify the toolbox for measuring this compound system concept; however, this multiplicity causes intractable questions for applications, including “Do these metrics measure the same resilience?” and “Which one to pick under what circumstance?” In this study, we attempted to address these two fundamental issues using a comprehensive comparative investigation. Through a quantitative-qualitative combined approach, 12 popular performance-based resilience metrics are compared using empirical data from China’s aviation system under the disturbance of COVID-19. Quantitative results indicate that only 12 of the 66 metric pairs are strongly positively correlated and with no significant differences in quantification outcomes; qualitative results indicate that the majority of the metrics are based on different definition interpretations, basic components, and expression forms, and thus essentially measure different resilience. The advantages and disadvantages of each metric are comparatively discussed, and a “how to choose” guideline for metric users is proposed. This study is an introspective investigation of resilience quantification studies, aiming to offer a new perspective to scrutinize those benchmarking metrics.","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136152089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of flood disaster risk management projects is crucial. However, current cost-benefit analyses (CBA) often lack reliable estimates of the expected loss reduction from flood control measures and ignore quantitative assessments of resettlement. To address these limitations, this study incorporated a probabilistic risk analysis method and quantitative resettlement benefits assessment into the CBA framework, using the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project (WIFMP) in Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. The direct economic benefits of flood control were estimated by integrating hydrological statistics, numerical flood inundation simulation, and quantitative damage analysis with exposure and vulnerability data. Furthermore, the resettlement benefits were quantified by measuring the annual income growth of migrants based on assumptions about household employment. Our analysis shows that the total WIFMP investment is RMB 3546.1 million yuan (USD 1 = RMB 6.976 yuan), including loan principal and interest of 244.4 million yuan, and operations and maintenance of 605.5 million yuan at 2020 prices. Annual project benefits are estimated at 351.3 million yuan in flood risk reduction, 155.7–191.9 million yuan from increased resettlement income, and 42.7 million yuan in power and water revenues. Considering the costs and benefits across the entire project lifecycle, the internal rate of return ranges from 13.7 to 14.2%, and the net present value ranges from 31.8 to 352.6 billion yuan. Through improved benefit estimation methodology, this research enables a more reliable and holistic evaluation of costs and benefits for flood risk management projects. It provides insights for policymakers and practitioners involved in similar projects, contributing to more informed decision making and better allocation of resources in flood disaster risk management.
{"title":"Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project Considering the Effects of Flood Risk Reduction and Resettlement","authors":"Peng Zeng, Weihua Fang, Haixia Zhang, Zhongmin Liang","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00520-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00520-y","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of flood disaster risk management projects is crucial. However, current cost-benefit analyses (CBA) often lack reliable estimates of the expected loss reduction from flood control measures and ignore quantitative assessments of resettlement. To address these limitations, this study incorporated a probabilistic risk analysis method and quantitative resettlement benefits assessment into the CBA framework, using the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project (WIFMP) in Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. The direct economic benefits of flood control were estimated by integrating hydrological statistics, numerical flood inundation simulation, and quantitative damage analysis with exposure and vulnerability data. Furthermore, the resettlement benefits were quantified by measuring the annual income growth of migrants based on assumptions about household employment. Our analysis shows that the total WIFMP investment is RMB 3546.1 million yuan (USD 1 = RMB 6.976 yuan), including loan principal and interest of 244.4 million yuan, and operations and maintenance of 605.5 million yuan at 2020 prices. Annual project benefits are estimated at 351.3 million yuan in flood risk reduction, 155.7–191.9 million yuan from increased resettlement income, and 42.7 million yuan in power and water revenues. Considering the costs and benefits across the entire project lifecycle, the internal rate of return ranges from 13.7 to 14.2%, and the net present value ranges from 31.8 to 352.6 billion yuan. Through improved benefit estimation methodology, this research enables a more reliable and holistic evaluation of costs and benefits for flood risk management projects. It provides insights for policymakers and practitioners involved in similar projects, contributing to more informed decision making and better allocation of resources in flood disaster risk management.","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136199105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00512-y
Deniz Gerçek, İsmail Talih Güven
Abstract Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake. Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide. Therefore, it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales. In this study, a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed. With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space, buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis. The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey, with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity. The index was represented by the building vulnerability, socioeconomic vulnerability, and vulnerability of the built environment. To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from, an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed. Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped, a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability, and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk. With its objectivity and straightforward implementation, the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.
{"title":"Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping at the Microscale Based on the Catastrophe Progression Method","authors":"Deniz Gerçek, İsmail Talih Güven","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00512-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00512-y","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake. Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide. Therefore, it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales. In this study, a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed. With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space, buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis. The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey, with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity. The index was represented by the building vulnerability, socioeconomic vulnerability, and vulnerability of the built environment. To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from, an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed. Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped, a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability, and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk. With its objectivity and straightforward implementation, the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136199113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1
Yamei Li, Q. Zou, Jian-sheng Hao, Li-jun Su
{"title":"Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar-Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change","authors":"Yamei Li, Q. Zou, Jian-sheng Hao, Li-jun Su","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"14 1","pages":"586 - 599"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42645107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00502-0
Shufeng Tian, G. Hu, N. Chen, Mahfuzur Rahman, H. Ni, M. Somos-Valenzuela
{"title":"Effects of Tectonic Setting and Hydraulic Properties on Silent Large-Scale Landslides: A Case Study of the Zhaobishan Landslide, China","authors":"Shufeng Tian, G. Hu, N. Chen, Mahfuzur Rahman, H. Ni, M. Somos-Valenzuela","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00502-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00502-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"14 1","pages":"600 - 617"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47650283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00507-9
Hu Jiang, Qiang Zou, Bin Zhou, Yao Jiang, Junfang Cui, Hongkun Yao, Wentao Zhou
{"title":"Estimation of Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Incorporating the Impacts of Vegetation on Slope Stability","authors":"Hu Jiang, Qiang Zou, Bin Zhou, Yao Jiang, Junfang Cui, Hongkun Yao, Wentao Zhou","doi":"10.1007/s13753-023-00507-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00507-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48740,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science","volume":"14 1","pages":"618 - 635"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46037686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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