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INDEX, VOLUME 11, 2021 索引,第11卷,2021年
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.v11.i6.50
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引用次数: 0
SPARSE TENSOR PRODUCT APPROXIMATION FOR A CLASS OF GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS ESTIMATORS 一类广义矩估计方法的稀疏张量积逼近
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-12-21 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2021037549
Alexandros Gilch, M. Griebel, Jens Oettershagen
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators in their various forms, including the popular Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator, are frequently applied for the evaluation of complex econometric models with not analytically computable moment or likelihood functions. As the objective functions of GMMand ML-estimators themselves constitute the approximation of an integral, more precisely of the expected value over the real world data space, the question arises whether the approximation of the moment function and the simulation of the entire objective function can be combined. Motivated by the popular Probit and Mixed Logit models, we consider double integrals with a linking function which stems from the considered estimator, e.g. the logarithm for Maximum Likelihood, and apply a sparse tensor product quadrature to reduce the computational effort for the approximation of the combined integral. Given Hölder continuity of the linking function, we prove that this approach can improve the order of the convergence rate of the classical GMMand ML-estimator by a factor of two, even for integrands of low regularity or high dimensionality. This result is illustrated by numerical simulations of Mixed Logit and Multinomial Probit integrals which are estimated by MLand GMM-estimators, respectively.
广义矩法(GMM)估计量的各种形式,包括流行的极大似然(ML)估计量,经常被用于评估具有不可解析计算矩函数或似然函数的复杂计量经济模型。由于gmv和ml估计器的目标函数本身构成了一个积分的近似值,更准确地说,是真实世界数据空间上的期望值的近似值,因此出现了一个问题,即力矩函数的近似值和整个目标函数的模拟是否可以结合起来。受流行的Probit和Mixed Logit模型的启发,我们考虑了由所考虑的估计量(例如最大似然的对数)产生的连接函数的二重积分,并应用稀疏张量积正交来减少组合积分近似的计算工作量。考虑到Hölder连接函数的连续性,我们证明了这种方法即使对于低正则性或高维的积分,也能将经典gmand ml估计的收敛速率的阶数提高2倍。这一结果通过MLand gmm估计器分别估计的混合Logit积分和多项Probit积分的数值模拟得到说明。
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引用次数: 0
Automatic selection of basis-adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansions for engineering applications 工程应用中基自适应稀疏多项式混沌展开的自动选择
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-09-10 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2021036153
Nora Luthen, S. Marelli, B. Sudret
Sparse polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are an efficient and widely used surrogate modeling method in uncertainty quantification for engineering problems with computationally expensive models. To make use of the available information in the most efficient way, several approaches for so-called basis-adaptive sparse PCE have been proposed to determine the set of polynomial regressors (“basis”) for PCE adaptively. The goal of this paper is to help practitioners identify the most suitable methods for constructing a surrogate PCE for their model. We describe three state-of-the-art basis-adaptive approaches from the recent sparse PCE literature and conduct an extensive benchmark in terms of global approximation accuracy on a large set of computational models. Investigating the synergies between sparse regression solvers and basis adaptivity schemes, we find that the choice of the proper solver and basis-adaptive scheme is very important, as it can result in more than one order of magnitude difference in performance. No single method significantly outperforms the others, but dividing the analysis into classes (regarding input dimension and experimental design size), we are able to identify specific sparse solver and basis adaptivity combinations for each class that show comparatively good performance. To further improve on these findings, we introduce a novel solver and basis adaptivity selection scheme guided by cross-validation error. We demonstrate that this automatic selection procedure provides close-to-optimal results in terms of accuracy, and significantly more robust solutions, while being more general than the case-by-case recommendations obtained by the benchmark.
稀疏多项式混沌展开(PCE)是一种高效且广泛应用于不确定性量化的替代建模方法,可用于计算量大的工程问题。为了最有效地利用可用信息,提出了几种所谓的基自适应稀疏PCE的方法,以自适应地确定PCE的多项式回归量集(“基”)。本文的目标是帮助从业者确定为他们的模型构建代理PCE的最合适的方法。我们从最近的稀疏PCE文献中描述了三种最先进的基自适应方法,并在大量计算模型的全局逼近精度方面进行了广泛的基准测试。研究稀疏回归解算器和基自适应方案之间的协同作用,我们发现选择合适的解算器和基自适应方案是非常重要的,因为它可能导致性能上的一个数量级以上的差异。没有任何一种方法明显优于其他方法,但是将分析分为类(关于输入维数和实验设计大小),我们能够为每个类识别出表现相对较好的特定稀疏求解器和基自适应组合。为了进一步改进这些发现,我们引入了一种新的求解器和基于交叉验证误差的自适应选择方案。我们证明,就准确性而言,这种自动选择过程提供了接近最优的结果,并且显著地提供了更健壮的解决方案,同时比基准测试获得的逐案建议更通用。
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引用次数: 13
A comprehensive comparison of total-order estimators for global sensitivity analysis 用于全局灵敏度分析的全阶估计量的综合比较
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-09-02 DOI: 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2021038133
A. Puy, W. Becker, S. L. Piano, Andrea Saltelli
Sensitivity analysis helps identify which model inputs convey the most uncertainty to the model output. One of the most authoritative measures in global sensitivity analysis is the Sobol' total-order index, which can be computed with several different estimators. Although previous comparisons exist, it is hard to know which estimator performs best since the results are contingent on the benchmark setting defined by the analyst (the sampling method, the distribution of the model inputs, the number of model runs, the test function or model and its dimensionality, the weight of higher order effects or the performance measure selected). Here we compare several total-order estimators in an eight-dimension hypercube where these benchmark parameters are treated as random parameters. This arrangement significantly relaxes the dependency of the results on the benchmark design. We observe that the most accurate estimators are Razavi and Gupta's, Jansen's or Janon/Monod's for factor prioritization, and Jansen's, Janon/Monod's or Azzini and Rosati's for approaching the"true"total-order indices. The rest lag considerably behind. Our work helps analysts navigate the myriad of total-order formulae by reducing the uncertainty in the selection of the most appropriate estimator.
敏感性分析有助于确定哪些模型输入向模型输出传递了最大的不确定性。全局灵敏度分析中最权威的度量之一是Sobol的全阶指数,它可以用几种不同的估计量来计算。尽管存在先前的比较,但很难知道哪个估计器表现最好,因为结果取决于分析师定义的基准设置(采样方法、模型输入的分布、模型运行的次数、测试函数或模型及其维度、高阶效应的权重或所选的性能度量)。在这里,我们比较了八维超立方体中的几个全阶估计量,其中这些基准参数被视为随机参数。这种安排显著地放松了结果对基准设计的依赖性。我们观察到,最准确的估计量是Razavi和Gupta的、Jansen的或Janon/Monod的因子优先级,以及Jansen的、Janon/Manod的或Azzini和Rosati的接近“真实”总序指数的估计量。其余的大大落后了。我们的工作通过减少选择最合适估计量的不确定性,帮助分析师浏览无数的总阶公式。
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引用次数: 19
Majorisation as a theory for uncertainty 专业化作为不确定性理论
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-07-21 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2022035476
V. Volodina, Nikki Sonenberg, E. Wheatcroft, H. Wynn
Majorisation, also called rearrangement inequalities, yields a type of stochastic ordering in which two or more distributions can be then compared. This method provides a representation of the peakedness of probability distributions and is also independent of the location of probabilities. These properties make majorisation a good candidate as a theory for uncertainty. We demonstrate that this approach is also dimension free by obtaining univariate decreasing rearrangements from multivariate distributions, thus we can consider the ordering of two, or more, distributions with different support. We present operations including inverse mixing and maximise/minimise to combine and analyse uncertainties associated with different distribution functions. We illustrate these methods for empirical examples with applications to scenario analysis and simulations.
Majorisation,也称为重排不等式,产生了一种随机排序,其中可以比较两个或多个分布。该方法提供了概率分布的峰值性的表示,并且与概率的位置无关。这些特性使多数化成为不确定性理论的一个很好的候选者。我们通过从多变量分布中获得单变量递减重排来证明这种方法也是无量纲的,因此我们可以考虑具有不同支持的两个或多个分布的排序。我们介绍了包括反向混合和最大化/最小化在内的操作,以组合和分析与不同分布函数相关的不确定性。我们举例说明了这些方法在情景分析和模拟中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Feedback control for random, linear hyperbolic balance laws 随机线性双曲平衡律的反馈控制
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2021037183
Stephan Gerster, M. Bambach, M. Herty, M. Imran
We design the controls of physical systems that are faced by uncertainties. The system dynamics are described by random hyperbolic balance laws. The control aims to steer the system to a desired state under uncertainties. We propose a control based on Lyapunov stability analysis of a suitable series expansion of the random dynamics. The control damps the impact of uncertainties exponentially fast in time. The presented approach can be applied to a large class of physical systems and random perturbations, as~e.g.~Gaussian processes. We illustrate the control effect on a stochastic viscoplastic material model.
我们设计了面对不确定性的物理系统的控制。系统动力学由随机双曲平衡定律描述。该控制旨在引导系统在不确定的情况下达到所需的状态。我们提出了一种基于李雅普诺夫稳定性分析的控制方法,该方法适用于随机动力学的级数展开。该控制在时间上以指数级的速度衰减不确定性的影响。所提出的方法可以应用于一大类物理系统和随机扰动,例如高斯过程。我们说明了随机粘塑性材料模型的控制效果。
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引用次数: 1
EXPLICIT ESTIMATION OF DERIVATIVES FROM DATA AND DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS BY GAUSSIAN PROCESS REGRESSION 用高斯过程回归对数据和微分方程的导数进行显式估计
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-04-13 DOI: 10.1615/INT.J.UNCERTAINTYQUANTIFICATION.2021034382
Hongqiao Wang, Xiang Zhou
In this work, we employ the Bayesian inference framework to solve the problem of estimating the solution and particularly, its derivatives, which satisfy a known differential equation, from the given noisy and scarce observations of the solution data only. To address the key issue of accuracy and robustness of derivative estimation, we use the Gaussian processes to jointly model the solution, the derivatives, and the differential equation. By regarding the linear differential equation as a linear constraint, a Gaussian process regression with constraint method (GPRC) is developed to improve the accuracy of prediction of derivatives. For nonlinear differential equations, we propose a Picard-iteration-like approximation of linearization around the Gaussian process obtained only from data so that our GPRC can be still iteratively applicable. Besides, a product of experts method is applied to ensure the initial or boundary condition is considered to further enhance the prediction accuracy of the derivatives. We present several numerical results to illustrate the advantages of our new method in comparison to the standard data-driven Gaussian process regression.
在这项工作中,我们采用贝叶斯推理框架来解决估计解的问题,特别是它的导数,满足一个已知的微分方程,从给定的噪声和稀缺的观测解数据。为了解决导数估计的准确性和鲁棒性的关键问题,我们使用高斯过程来联合建模解、导数和微分方程。将线性微分方程视为线性约束,提出了一种带约束的高斯过程回归方法(GPRC),以提高导数预测的精度。对于非线性微分方程,我们提出了一种仅从数据中获得的高斯过程周围线性化的皮卡德迭代近似,使我们的GPRC仍然可以迭代适用。此外,采用专家积法保证了初始条件或边界条件的考虑,进一步提高了导数的预测精度。我们给出了几个数值结果来说明与标准数据驱动的高斯过程回归相比,我们的新方法的优点。
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引用次数: 12
STOCHASTIC SPECTRAL EMBEDDING 随机谱嵌入
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-04-09 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2020034395
S. Marelli, Paul Wagner, C. Lataniotis, B. Sudret
Constructing approximations that can accurately mimic the behavior of complex models at reduced computational costs is an important aspect of uncertainty quantification. Despite their flexibility and efficiency, classical surrogate models such as Kriging or polynomial chaos expansions tend to struggle with highly non-linear, localized or non-stationary computational models. We hereby propose a novel sequential adaptive surrogate modeling method based on recursively embedding locally spectral expansions. It is achieved by means of disjoint recursive partitioning of the input domain, which consists in sequentially splitting the latter into smaller subdomains, and constructing a simpler local spectral expansions in each, exploiting the trade-off complexity vs. locality. The resulting expansion, which we refer to as "stochastic spectral embedding" (SSE), is a piece-wise continuous approximation of the model response that shows promising approximation capabilities, and good scaling with both the problem dimension and the size of the training set. We finally show how the method compares favorably against state-of-the-art sparse polynomial chaos expansions on a set of models with different complexity and input dimension.
构建能够以较低的计算成本准确模拟复杂模型行为的近似是不确定性量化的一个重要方面。尽管具有灵活性和效率,但经典的替代模型(如Kriging或多项式混沌展开)往往难以处理高度非线性、局部化或非平稳的计算模型。本文提出了一种基于递归嵌入局部谱展开的序列自适应代理建模方法。它是通过输入域的不交递归划分来实现的,该划分包括将后者依次划分为较小的子域,并在每个子域中构建更简单的局部谱展开,利用复杂性与局部性之间的权衡。由此产生的扩展,我们称之为“随机谱嵌入”(SSE),是模型响应的分段连续逼近,显示出有希望的逼近能力,并且与问题维数和训练集的大小都有良好的缩放。我们最后展示了该方法如何在一组具有不同复杂性和输入维数的模型上优于最先进的稀疏多项式混沌展开。
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引用次数: 18
VARIANCE REDUCTION METHODS AND MULTILEVEL MONTE CARLO STRATEGY FOR ESTIMATING DENSITIES OF SOLUTIONS TO RANDOM SECOND-ORDER LINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS 随机二阶线性微分方程解密度估计的方差缩减方法和多水平蒙特卡罗策略
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2020032659
M. J. Sanz, J. C. Gregori, O. Maître, Juan Carlos Cortés López
This paper concerns the estimation of the density function of the solution to a random non-autonomous second-order linear differential equation with analytic data processes. In a recent contribution, we proposed to express the density function as an expectation, and we used a standard Monte Carlo algorithm to approximate the expectation. Although the algorithms worked satisfactorily for most test-problems, some numerical challenges emerged for others, due to large statistical errors. In these situations, the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulation slows down severely, and noisy features plague the estimates. In this paper, we focus on computational aspects and propose several variance reduction methods to remedy these issues and speed up the convergence. First, we introduce a path-wise selection of the approximating processes which aims at controlling the variance of the estimator. Second, we propose a hybrid method, combining Monte Carlo and deterministic quadrature rules, to estimate the expectation. Third, we exploit the series expansions of the solutions to design a multilevel Monte Carlo estimator. The proposed methods are implemented and tested on several numerical examples to highlight the theoretical discussions and demonstrate the significant improvements achieved.
本文研究了一类随机非自治二阶线性微分方程解的密度函数估计。在最近的一篇文章中,我们提出将密度函数表示为期望,并使用标准蒙特卡罗算法来近似期望。尽管该算法对大多数测试问题都能令人满意地工作,但由于较大的统计误差,在其他测试问题上出现了一些数值挑战。在这些情况下,蒙特卡罗模拟的收敛速度严重减慢,并且噪声特征困扰着估计。在本文中,我们着重于计算方面,并提出了几种方差减少方法来弥补这些问题,加快收敛速度。首先,我们引入了一种旨在控制估计量方差的逼近过程的路径选择方法。其次,我们提出了一种结合蒙特卡罗和确定性正交规则的混合方法来估计期望。第三,我们利用解的级数展开来设计一个多层蒙特卡罗估计量。提出的方法在几个数值实例上进行了实施和测试,以突出理论讨论并证明所取得的显著改进。
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引用次数: 1
INVERSE UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF A CELL MODEL USING A GAUSSIAN PROCESS METAMODEL 使用高斯过程元模型的细胞模型的逆不确定性量化
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2020033186
K. D. Vries, A. Nikishova, B. Czaja, Gábor Závodszky, A. Hoekstra
Disclaimer/Complaints regulations If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.
为了准确地描述红细胞(rbc)的力学和由此产生的流体动力学,需要一个细胞分辨率的血流流体求解器。红细胞膜材料模型的参数经过仔细调整,以再现真实细胞在各种实验条件下的行为。在这项工作中,红细胞悬浮液模型中使用的红细胞材料模型参数的不确定性通过使用贝叶斯退火顺序重要性抽样(BASIS)的逆不确定性量化(IUQ)进行估计。由于模型的计算成本相对较高,为了能够可行地抽取大量样本以获得准确的后验分布估计,我们训练了高斯过程回归元模型。此外,利用Sobol敏感性指数估计模型参数的可辨识性。模拟红细胞在完美剪切环境下的伸长率指数作为模型预测值,用于标定模型参数。结果表明,定义细胞膜拉伸性能和黏度比的参数可识别性较好,而定义细胞表面弯曲响应的参数可识别性较差。这表明,后者应该使用不同的兴趣量来识别。总体而言,使用高斯过程元模型获得的参数最优值的模型输出比使用原始模型获得的参数值的结果更好或更接近测量值。因此,我们可以得出结论,这是降低模型IUQ计算成本的有效方法。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification
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