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Sequential tracking of an unobservable two-state Markov process under Brownian noise 布朗噪声下不可观测两态马尔可夫过程的顺序跟踪
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2021.1847924
A. Muravlev, M. Urusov, M. Zhitlukhin
Abstract We consider an optimal control problem where a Brownian motion with drift is sequentially observed and the sign of the drift coefficient changes at jump times of a symmetric two-state Markov process. The Markov process itself is not observable, and the problem consists of finding a {−1, 1}-valued process that tracks the unobservable process as closely as possible. We present an explicit construction of such a process.
摘要我们考虑了一个最优控制问题,其中连续观察到具有漂移的布朗运动,并且在对称两态马尔可夫过程的跳跃时间漂移系数的符号发生变化。马尔可夫过程本身是不可观测的,问题包括找到一个{−1,1}值的过程,该过程尽可能密切地跟踪不可观测过程。我们提出了这样一个过程的明确结构。
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引用次数: 1
On the convergence rate of the quasi- to stationary distribution for the Shiryaev-Roberts diffusion 关于Shiryaev-Roberts扩散的拟平稳分布的收敛速度
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-05 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2020.1766926
Kexuan Li, Aleksey S. Polunchenko
Abstract For the classical Shiryaev-Roberts martingale diffusion considered on the interval where A > 0 is a given absorbing boundary, it is shown that the rate of convergence of the diffusion’s quasi-stationary cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.), to its stationary c.d.f., H(x), as is no worse than uniformly in The result is established explicitly by constructing new tight lower- and upper-bounds for using certain latest monotonicity properties of the modified Bessel K function involved in the exact closed-form formula for recently obtained by Polunchenko (2017b).
关于A区间上的经典Shiryaev-Roberts鞅扩散 > 0是一个给定的吸收边界,证明了扩散的拟平稳累积分布函数(c.d.f.)对其平稳c.d.f.,H(x)的收敛速度,通过使用Polunchenko(2017b)最近获得的精确闭合形式公式中涉及的修正贝塞尔K函数的某些最新单调性性质,构造新的紧下界和上界,明确地建立了结果。
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引用次数: 2
A hybrid Bayesian-frequentist predictive design for monitoring multi-stage clinical trials 用于监测多阶段临床试验的混合贝叶斯频率预测设计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1648919
Z. Djeridi, H. Merabet
Abstract In this article, we propose a hybrid-Bayesian frequentist approach using a Bayesian sequential prediction of the index of satisfaction. For interim analysis that addresses prediction hypothesis, such as futility monitoring with delayed outcomes, the prediction of satisfaction properly accounts for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and has the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. The prediction of satisfaction design guarantees the type I error rate and does not require intensive computation or comprehensive simulation. The design is retrospectively applied to a lung cancer clinical trial.
摘要在本文中,我们提出了一种使用满意度指数的贝叶斯序列预测的混合贝叶斯频率论方法。对于解决预测假设的中期分析,如对延迟结果的徒劳监测,满意度的预测适当地考虑了临床试验中有待观察的数据量,并具有通过辅助变量纳入额外信息的灵活性。满意度设计的预测保证了I型错误率,不需要密集的计算或全面的模拟。该设计回顾性应用于癌症临床试验。
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引用次数: 1
Second-order analysis of regret for sequential estimation of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model 一阶自回归模型中自回归参数序列估计的二阶后悔分析
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1648933
T. N. Sriram, S. Samadi
Abstract This article revisits the problem of sequential point estimation of the autogressive parameter in an autoregressive model of order 1, where the errors are independent and identically distributed with mean 0 and unknown variance . This problem was originally considered in Sriram (1988), where first-order efficiency properties and a second-order expansion for the expected value of a stopping rule were established. Here, we obtain an asymptotic expression for the so-called regret due to not knowing σ, as the cost of estimation error tends to infinity. Under suitable assumptions, our extensive analysis shows that all but one term in the regret are asymptotically bounded. If the errors have a bounded support, however, then the regret remains asymptotically bounded. Finally, we illustrate the performance of our sequential procedure and the associated regret for well-known blowfly data (Nicholson, 1950) and Internet traffic data using the residual bootstrap method for autoregressive models.
摘要本文重新讨论了1阶自回归模型中自压缩参数的序列点估计问题,其中误差是独立的,并且与均值0和未知方差同分布。这个问题最初是在Sriram(1988)中考虑的,其中建立了停止规则的期望值的一阶效率性质和二阶展开。在这里,我们得到了由于不知道σ而导致的所谓遗憾的渐近表达式,因为估计误差的代价趋于无穷大。在适当的假设下,我们的广泛分析表明,遗憾中除了一个项外,所有项都是渐近有界的。然而,如果误差具有有界支持,那么遗憾仍然是渐近有界的。最后,我们使用自回归模型的残差自举方法,说明了我们的序列过程的性能以及著名的飞蝇数据(Nicholson,1950)和互联网流量数据的相关遗憾。
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引用次数: 1
Monitoring a Poisson process subject to gradual changes in the arrival rates 监测到达率逐渐变化的泊松过程
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1648923
Marlo Brown
Abstract We look at a Poisson process where the arrival rates change from a known λ1 to a known λ2. Whereas in most of the literature the change-point is abrupt, we model the more realistic assumption that states that the change happens gradually over a period of time η where η is known. We calculate the probability that the change has started and completed. We also look at optimal stopping rules assuming that there is a cost for a false alarm and a cost per time unit to stop early. We conclude with some numerical results.
摘要我们研究泊松过程,其中到达率从已知的λ1变为已知的λ2。尽管在大多数文献中,变化点是突然的,但我们对更现实的假设进行了建模,即变化在一段时间η内逐渐发生,其中η是已知的。我们计算变更已经开始和完成的概率。我们还研究了最优停止规则,假设有错误警报的成本和提前停止的每个时间单位的成本。最后给出了一些数值结果。
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引用次数: 2
A k-stage procedure for estimating the mean vector of a multivariate normal population 估计多元正态总体的平均向量的k阶段程序
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1648926
Ajit Chaturvedi, Sudeep R. Bapat, Neeraj Joshi
Abstract In this article, we have estimated the mean vector of a multivariate normal population by using a k-stage sequential estimation procedure. Point estimation as well as confidence region estimation is done. Second-order approximations are obtained in both the cases. In case of minimum risk point estimation of , negative regret is achieved.
摘要在本文中,我们使用k阶序列估计程序估计了多元正态总体的平均向量。进行了点估计和置信区间估计。在这两种情况下都得到了二阶近似。在最小风险点估计为的情况下,实现了负后悔。
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引用次数: 3
Minimum risk sequential point estimation of the stress-strength reliability parameter for exponential distribution 指数分布下应力-强度可靠性参数的最小风险序贯点估计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1649347
E. Mahmoudi, Ashkan Khalifeh, V. Nekoukhou
Abstract In this article, using purely and two-stage sequential procedures, the problem of minimum risk point estimation of the reliability parameter (R) under the stress–strength model, in case the loss function is squared error plus sampling cost, is considered when the random stress (X) and the random strength (Y) are independent and both have exponential distributions with different scale parameters. The exact distribution of the total sample size and explicit formulas for the expected value and mean squared error of the maximum likelihood estimator of the reliability parameter under the stress–strength model are provided under the two-stage sequential procedure. Using the law of large numbers and Monte Carlo integration, the exact distribution of the stopping rule under the purely sequential procedure is approximated. Moreover, it is shown that both proposed sequential procedures are finite and for special cases the exact distribution of stopping times has a degenerate distribution at the initial sample size. The performances of the proposed methodologies are investigated with the help of simulations. Finally, using a real data set, the procedures are clearly illustrated.
摘要本文采用纯粹的两阶段顺序过程,研究了在随机应力(X)和随机强度(Y)独立且均具有不同尺度参数的指数分布的情况下,当损失函数为误差平方加抽样代价时,应力-强度模型下可靠性参数R的最小风险点估计问题。给出了应力-强度模型下可靠性参数最大似然估计量的期望值和均方误差的显式表达式。利用大数定律和蒙特卡罗积分,逼近了纯顺序过程下停止规律的精确分布。此外,还证明了所提出的两种顺序过程都是有限的,并且在特殊情况下,停止时间的精确分布在初始样本量处具有退化分布。通过仿真研究了所提方法的性能。最后,通过一个实际数据集,对该方法进行了清晰的说明。
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引用次数: 10
A Khmaladze-transformed test of fit with ML estimation in the presence of recurrent events 在存在重复事件的情况下,用ML估计拟合的khmaladze变换检验
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1648920
K. Zamba, A. Adekpedjou
Abstract This article provides a goodness-of-fit test for the distribution function or the survival function in a recurrent event setting, when the inter-event time parametric structure is estimated from the observed data. Of concern is the null hypothesis that the inter-event time distribution is absolutely continuous and belongs to a parametric family , where the q-dimensional parameter space is neither known nor specified. We proposed a Khmaladze martingale-transformed type of test (Khmaladze, 1981), adapted to recurrent events. The test statistic combines two likelihood sources of estimation to form a parametric empirical process: (1) a product-limit nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE; Peña et al., 2001a) that is a consistent estimator of F, say, and (2) a point process likelihood estimator (Jacod, 1974/1975). These estimators are combined to construct a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) type of test (Kolmogorov 1933; Smirnov, 1933). Empirical process and martingale weak convergence frameworks are utilized for theoretical derivations and motivational justification of the proposed transformation. A simulation study is conducted for performance assessment, and the test is applied to a problem investigated by Proschan (1963) on air-conditioning failure in a fleet of Boeing 720 jets.
摘要本文对递归事件环境中的分布函数或生存函数进行了拟合优度检验,当根据观测数据估计事件间时间参数结构时。值得关注的是零假设,即事件间时间分布是绝对连续的,并且属于参数族,其中q维参数空间既不已知也不指定。我们提出了一种适应于复发事件的Khmaladze鞅转换型测试(Khmaladz,1981)。检验统计量结合了两个估计的似然源,形成了一个参数经验过程:(1)乘积极限非参数最大似然估计量(NPMLE;Peña et al.,2001a),例如,它是F的一致估计量;(2)点过程似然估计器(Jacobd,1974/1975)。将这些估计量组合起来构建Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS)类型的检验(Kolmogorov 1933;Smirnov,1933)。利用经验过程和鞅弱收敛框架对所提出的变换进行理论推导和动机论证。对性能评估进行了模拟研究,并将该测试应用于Proschan(1963)研究的波音720喷气机队空调故障问题。
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引用次数: 1
Determination of multiple dependent state repetitive group sampling plan based on the process capability index 基于过程能力指数的多依赖状态重复群抽样方案的确定
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2019.1648930
S. Balamurali, M. Aslam
Abstract In this article, we propose a sampling plan called a multiple dependent state repetitive group sampling plan for variable inspection based on the process capability index Cpk. The proposed sampling plan is applicable for the inspection of normally distributed quality characteristics when both mean and variance are assumed to be unknown. This new plan under variable inspection will be very useful particularly in compliance testing. Tables are also constructed for the determination of optimal parameters for easy selection and implementation of the plan. The optimal parameters can be determined by using the approach of two points on the operating characteristic curve. Symmetric and asymmetric cases based on the fraction nonconforming by the lower and the upper specification limits are also considered. Advantages of the proposed plan are also discussed. It is also shown that the proposed plan outperforms other existing sampling plans under variable inspection.
摘要在本文中,我们提出了一种基于过程能力指数Cpk的变量检验抽样计划,称为多依赖状态重复组抽样计划。当均值和方差均未知时,所提出的抽样计划适用于检验正态分布的质量特征。这项可变检查下的新计划将非常有用,尤其是在合规性测试中。还构建了用于确定最佳参数的表格,以便于选择和实施计划。最佳参数可以通过使用操作特性曲线上的两点的方法来确定。还考虑了基于分数不符合规格下限和规格上限的对称和非对称情况。还讨论了拟议计划的优点。研究还表明,在变量检验下,所提出的方案优于其他现有的抽样方案。
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引用次数: 12
Estimation of common change point and isolation of changed panels after sequential detection 序列检测后常见变化点的估计和变化面板的隔离
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2020.1726685
Yanhong Wu
Abstract Quick detection of common changes is critical in sequential monitoring of multistream data where a common change is a change that only occurs in a portion of panels. After a common change is detected by using a combined cumulative sum Shiryaev-Roberts (CUSUM-SR) procedure, we first study the joint distribution for values of the CUSUM process and the estimated delay detection time for the unchanged panels. A Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) method using the asymptotic exponential property for the CUSUM process is developed to isolate the changed panels with control on the false discovery rate (FDR). The common change point is then estimated based on the isolated changed panels. Simulation results show that the proposed method can also control the false non-discovery rate (FNR) by properly selecting the FDR.
在多流数据的顺序监控中,快速检测共同变化是至关重要的,其中共同变化仅发生在部分面板中。在使用组合累积和Shiryaev-Roberts (CUSUM- sr)程序检测共同变化之后,我们首先研究了CUSUM过程值的联合分布和不变面板的估计延迟检测时间。在控制错误发现率(FDR)的情况下,利用CUSUM过程的渐近指数性质,提出了一种分离变化面板的Benjamini-Hochberg (BH)方法。然后根据隔离的更改面板估计公共更改点。仿真结果表明,通过合理选择FDR,该方法可以有效地控制错误未发现率(FNR)。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Sequential Analysis-Design Methods and Applications
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