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Stochastic dynamics of an SIR model for respiratory diseases coupled air pollutant concentration changes 呼吸系统疾病 SIR 模型的随机动力学耦合空气污染物浓度变化
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03812-9
Sha He, Yiping Tan, Weiming Wang

Industrial development has made air pollution increasingly severe, and many respiratory diseases are closely related to air quality in terms of infection and transmission. In this work, we used the classic stochastic susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) model to reflect the spread of respiratory disease, coupled with the diffusion process of air pollutants to the infectious disease model, and we investigated the impact of various environmental noises on the process of disease transmission and air pollutant diffusion. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define threshold (mathcal{R}_{1}^{s}) for extinction and threshold (mathcal{R}_{2}^{s}) for persistence of the disease in the stochastic model ((mathcal{R}_{2}^{s}<mathcal{R}_{1}^{s})) when the parameters are constant, and we show that (i) when (mathcal{R}_{1}^{s}) is less than 1, the disease will go to stochastic extinction; (ii) when (mathcal{R}_{2}^{s}) is larger than 1, the disease will persist almost surely and the model has a unique ergodic stationary distribution; (iii) when (mathcal{R}_{1}^{s}) is larger than 1 and (mathcal{R}_{2}^{s}) is less than 1, the extinction of the disease has randomness, which is demonstrated through numerical experiments. In addition, we derive the exact expression of the probability density function of the stationary distribution by solving the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation under the condition of disease persistence and analyze the effects of random noises on stationary distribution characteristics and the disease extinction. Epidemiologically, the change of the concentration of air pollutants affects the conditions for disease extinction and persistence. The increase in the inflow of pollutants and the increase in the clearance rate have negative and positive impacts on the spread of diseases, respectively. We found that an increase in random noise intensity will increase the variance, reduce the kurtosis of distribution, which is not conducive to predicting and controlling the development status of the disease; however, large random noise intensity can also increase the probability of disease extinction and accelerates disease extinction. We further investigate the dynamic of the stochastic model, assuming that the inflow rate switches between two levels by numerical experiments. The results show that the random noise has a significant impact on disease extinction. The data fitting of the switching model shows that the model can effectively depict the relationship and changes in trends between air pollution and diseases.

工业发展使空气污染日益严重,许多呼吸道疾病的感染和传播都与空气质量密切相关。在这项工作中,我们采用经典的随机易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模型来反映呼吸道疾病的传播,并将空气污染物的扩散过程耦合到传染病模型中,研究了各种环境噪声对疾病传播和空气污染物扩散过程的影响。这项研究的价值在于两个方面。在数学上,我们定义了随机模型中疾病灭绝的阈值(mathcal{R}_{1}^{s})和疾病持续的阈值(mathcal{R}_{2}^{s})((mathcal{R}_{2}^{s}<;当参数恒定时,我们证明:(i) 当 (mathcal{R}_{1}^{s}) 小于 1 时,疾病将随机消亡;(iii) 当 (mathcal{R}_{1}^{s}) 大于 1 且 (mathcal{R}_{2}^{s}) 小于 1 时,疾病的消亡具有随机性,这一点通过数值实验得到了证明。此外,在疾病持续存在的条件下,我们通过求解相应的福克-普朗克方程,推导出了静态分布概率密度函数的精确表达式,并分析了随机噪声对静态分布特征和疾病消亡的影响。从流行病学角度看,空气污染物浓度的变化会影响疾病消亡和持续的条件。污染物流入量的增加和清除率的增加分别对疾病的传播产生负面和正面影响。我们发现,随机噪声强度的增加会增大方差,降低分布的峰度,不利于预测和控制疫病的发展状况;但随机噪声强度大也会增加疫病消亡的概率,加速疫病消亡。我们通过数值实验进一步研究了假设流入率在两个水平之间切换的随机模型的动态。结果表明,随机噪声对疾病消亡有显著影响。切换模型的数据拟合结果表明,该模型能有效描述空气污染与疾病之间的关系和变化趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Nonsmooth dynamics of a Filippov predator–prey ecological model with antipredator behavior 具有反捕食者行为的菲利波夫捕食者-猎物生态模型的非平稳动力学
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03808-5
Lidong Huang, Wenjie Qin, Shuai Chen

This article proposes a class of nonsmooth Filippov pest–predator ecosystems with intermittent control strategies based on the pest’s antipredator behavior. aiming to investigate the influence of control strategies and switching thresholds on pest control. First, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of various equilibria within the Filippov system is undertaken, emphasizing the presence and stability of sliding mode dynamics and pseudoequilibrium. Secondly, through numerical simulations, the article discusses boundary-focus, boundary-node, and boundary-saddle bifurcation. Finally, the nonexistence of limit cycles in the Filippov system is theoretically studied. The research indicates that the solution trajectories of the model ultimately stabilize either at the real equilibria or at pseudoequilibrium on the model’s switching surface. Moreover, when the model has multiple coexisting real equilibrium and pseudoequilibrium, the pest-control strategy is correlated with the initial density of both the pest and the predator population.

本文基于害虫的反捕食行为,提出了一类具有间歇控制策略的非光滑菲利波夫害虫-捕食者生态系统,旨在研究控制策略和切换阈值对害虫控制的影响。首先,对菲利波夫系统内的各种平衡状态进行了全面的理论分析,强调了滑模动力学和伪平衡的存在和稳定性。其次,文章通过数值模拟讨论了边界-焦点、边界-节点和边界-马鞍分叉。最后,从理论上研究了菲利波夫系统不存在极限循环的问题。研究表明,模型的解轨迹最终会稳定在模型切换面上的真实平衡或伪平衡处。此外,当模型存在多个共存的真实平衡和伪平衡时,害虫控制策略与害虫和捕食者种群的初始密度相关。
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引用次数: 0
Parametrized multiplicative integral inequalities 参数化乘法积分不等式
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03806-7
Assia Frioui, Badreddine Meftah, Ali Shokri, Abdelghani Lakhdari, Herbert Mukalazi

In this paper, we introduce a biparametrized multiplicative integral identity and employ it to establish a collection of inequalities for multiplicatively convex mappings. These inequalities encompass several novel findings and refinements of established results. To enhance readers’ comprehension, we offer illustrative examples that highlight appropriate choices of multiplicatively convex mappings along with graphical representations. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our results to special means of real numbers within the realm of multiplicative calculus.

在本文中,我们引入了一个双参数化的乘法积分特性,并利用它建立了一系列乘法凸映射的不等式。这些不等式包括若干新发现和对已有结果的改进。为了加深读者的理解,我们提供了一些示例,强调了乘法凸映射的适当选择,并配有图形表示。最后,我们证明了我们的结果适用于乘法微积分领域中实数的特殊手段。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical analysis and optimal control of Dengue fever epidemic model 登革热流行病模型的数学分析与优化控制
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03805-8
Yacouba Yoda, Harouna Ouedraogo, Dramane Ouedraogo, Aboudramane Guiro

In this article, we are working on an SEIR-SI type model for dengue disease in order to better observe the dynamics of infection in human beings. We calculate the basic reproduction number (mathcal{R}_{0}) and determine the equilibrium points. We then show the existence of global stability in each of the different states depending on the value of (mathcal{R}_{0}). Moreover, to support the theoretical work, we present numerical simulations obtained using Python. We also study the sensitivity of the parameters included in the expression of (mathcal{R}_{0}) with the aim of identifying the most influential parameters in the dynamics of dengue disease spread. Finally, we introduce two functions u and v, respectively indicating the treatment of the infected people and any prevention system minimizing contact between humans and the disease causing vectors. We present the curves of the controlled system after calculating the optimal pair of controls capable of reducing the dynamics of the disease spread, still using Python.

在本文中,我们正在研究登革热病的 SEIR-SI 型模型,以便更好地观察人类感染的动态。我们计算了基本繁殖数((mathcal{R}_{0})并确定了平衡点。然后,我们根据 (mathcal{R}_{0})的值,证明了在每种不同状态下都存在全局稳定性。此外,为了支持理论工作,我们还介绍了使用 Python 进行的数值模拟。我们还研究了 (mathcal{R}_{0})表达式中包含的参数的敏感性,目的是找出登革热病传播动态中最具影响力的参数。最后,我们引入了两个函数 u 和 v,分别表示对感染者的治疗和任何将人类与致病媒介接触降至最低的预防系统。在计算出能够减少疾病传播动态的最优控制对之后,我们将展示受控系统的曲线,仍然使用 Python。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamical behaviors of a stochastic SIRV epidemic model with the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process 具有 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程的随机 SIRV 流行模型的动力学行为
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03807-6
Jiaxin Shang, Wenhe Li

Vaccination is an important tool in disease control to suppress disease, and vaccine-influenced diseases no longer conform to the general pattern of transmission. In this paper, by assuming that the infection rate is affected by the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, we obtained a stochastic SIRV model. First, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease are then obtained. Next, by creating an appropriate Lyapunov function, the existence of the stationary distribution for the model is proved. Further, the explicit expression for the probability density function of the model around the quasi-equilibrium point is obtained. Finally, the analytical outcomes are examined by numerical simulations.

疫苗接种是疾病控制中抑制疾病的重要手段,而受疫苗影响的疾病不再符合一般的传播模式。本文通过假设感染率受 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程的影响,得到了随机 SIRV 模型。首先,我们证明了全局正解的存在性和唯一性。然后,我们得到了疾病消亡和持续存在的充分条件。接着,通过创建一个适当的 Lyapunov 函数,证明了模型静态分布的存在性。此外,还得到了模型在准平衡点附近的概率密度函数的明确表达式。最后,通过数值模拟对分析结果进行检验。
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引用次数: 0
On the maximum principle for relaxed control problems of nonlinear stochastic systems 论非线性随机系统松弛控制问题的最大原则
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03803-w
Meriem Mezerdi, Brahim Mezerdi

We consider optimal control problems for a system governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a d-dimensional Brownian motion where both the drift and the diffusion coefficient are controlled. It is well known that without additional convexity conditions the strict control problem does not admit an optimal control. To overcome this difficulty, we consider the relaxed model, in which admissible controls are measure-valued processes and the relaxed state process is governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a continuous orthogonal martingale measure. This relaxed model admits an optimal control that can be approximated by a sequence of strict controls by the so-called chattering lemma. We establish optimality necessary conditions, in terms of two adjoint processes, extending Peng’s maximum principle to relaxed control problems. We show that relaxing the drift and diffusion martingale parts directly as in deterministic control does not lead to a true relaxed model as the obtained controlled dynamics is not continuous in the control variable.

我们考虑一个由 d 维布朗运动驱动的随机微分方程所支配的系统的最优控制问题,其中漂移和扩散系数都是受控的。众所周知,如果没有额外的凸性条件,严格控制问题就无法实现最优控制。为了克服这一困难,我们考虑了松弛模型,在该模型中,可接受的控制是度量值过程,松弛状态过程受连续正交马廷格度量驱动的随机微分方程控制。这种松弛模型允许一种最优控制,而这种最优控制可以通过所谓的喋喋不休阶梯(chattering lemma)由一系列严格控制来近似。我们用两个邻接过程建立了最优性必要条件,将彭氏最大原则扩展到松弛控制问题。我们证明,像在确定性控制中那样直接放松漂移和扩散马氏部分并不会导致真正的放松模型,因为得到的受控动力学在控制变量中并不连续。
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引用次数: 0
A mathematical model for evaluating the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the early COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom 评估非药物干预措施对英国 COVID-19 早期流行影响的数学模型
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03802-x
Hongyu Zhang, Shuanglin Jing

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents a severe and urgent threat to global health. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including national workplace and school closures, personal protection, social distancing, contact tracing, testing, home quarantine, and isolation. To evaluate the effectiveness of these NPIs in mitigating the spread of early COVID-19 and predict the epidemic trend in the United Kingdom, we developed a compartmental model to mimic the transmission with time-varying transmission rate, contact rate, disease-induced mortality rate, proportion of quarantined close contacts, and hospitalization rate. The model was fitted to the number of confirmed new cases and daily number of deaths in five stages with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We quantified the effectiveness of NPIs and found that if the transmission rate, contact rate, and hospitalization rate were approximately equal to those in the second stage of the most strict NPIs, and the proportion of quarantined close contacts increased by 3%, then the epidemic would die out as early as January 12, 2021, with around 1,533,000 final cumulative number of confirmed cases, and around 55,610 final cumulative number of deaths.

2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)对全球健康构成了严重而紧迫的威胁。为应对 COVID-19 大流行,许多国家已实施了非药物干预措施(NPIs),包括关闭国家工作场所和学校、个人防护、社会疏远、接触追踪、检测、家庭隔离和隔离。为了评估这些 NPI 在减缓早期 COVID-19 传播方面的效果并预测英国的流行趋势,我们建立了一个分区模型,模拟传播率、接触率、疾病诱发死亡率、隔离密切接触者比例和住院率随时间变化的传播情况。该模型采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法,分五个阶段对确诊新病例数和每日死亡人数进行拟合。我们对 NPI 的有效性进行了量化,发现如果传播率、接触率和住院率与最严格 NPI 的第二阶段大致相同,且隔离密切接触者的比例增加 3%,那么疫情最早将于 2021 年 1 月 12 日消亡,最终累计确诊病例数约为 153.3 万例,最终累计死亡人数约为 55610 人。
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引用次数: 0
Stability analysis of fractional order breast cancer model in chemotherapy patients with cardiotoxicity by applying LADM 应用 LADM 对伴有心脏毒性的化疗患者中的分数阶乳腺癌模型进行稳定性分析
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03800-z
Hajar Mohammadpoor, Nasrin Eghbali, Leila Sajedi, Monireh Nosrati Sahlan

Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in women. Chemotherapy is primarily used for patients with stage 2 to 4 breast cancer. Most chemotherapy drugs are effective at destroying rapidly growing and proliferating cancer cells. However, drugs also damage normal, rapidly growing cells, which can lead to serious side effects. Breast cancer treatment with chemotherapy can affect heart health. Side effects of chemotherapy on the heart are called cardiotoxicity. Therefore, we have constructed a mathematical model from the breast cancer patient population. In this article, we utilize the Caputo–Fabrizio fractional order derivative for mathematical modeling of the breast cancer stages in chemotherapy patients. The use of Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivative provides a more valuable insight into the complexity of the breast cancer model. The stability of the fractional order model is also proven by the (mathscr{P})-stable approach of the fixed point theorem. Also, the numerical simulations are performed via Laplace Adomian decomposition method to establish the dependence of the breast cancer dynamics on the order of the fractional derivatives. Based on the geometric results in the figures, we can conclude that the magnitude of the fractional order has a considerable impact on the days, which the maximum or minimum of the system solutions are reached, with a shift in the time at which this happens as the fractional order decreases from 1. However, it is obvious that the solutions of Caputo–Fabrizio fractional model approach the relevant results of the classical integer order system, when the fractional order approaches to 1.

乳腺癌是女性最常见的癌症类型。化疗主要用于 2 至 4 期乳腺癌患者。大多数化疗药物都能有效摧毁快速生长和增殖的癌细胞。但是,药物也会损害正常的、快速生长的细胞,从而导致严重的副作用。乳腺癌化疗会影响心脏健康。化疗对心脏的副作用被称为心脏毒性。因此,我们从乳腺癌患者群体中构建了一个数学模型。在本文中,我们利用 Caputo-Fabrizio 分数阶导数对化疗患者的乳腺癌阶段进行数学建模。卡普托-法布里齐奥分数导数的使用为乳腺癌模型的复杂性提供了更有价值的见解。分数阶模型的稳定性也通过定点定理的(mathscr{P})稳定方法得到了证明。此外,还通过拉普拉斯-阿多米安分解法进行了数值模拟,以确定乳腺癌动力学对分数导数阶数的依赖性。根据图中的几何结果,我们可以得出结论:分数阶的大小对系统解达到最大值或最小值的天数有相当大的影响,当分数阶从 1 开始减小时,发生这种情况的时间会发生变化。然而,当分数阶接近 1 时,卡普托-法布里齐奥分数模型的解显然接近经典整数阶系统的相关结果。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the stability and its simulation algorithm of a nonlinear impulsive ABC-fractional coupled system with a Laplacian operator via F-contractive mapping 通过 F 契约映射研究带有拉普拉斯算子的非线性脉冲 ABC 分数耦合系统的稳定性及其仿真算法
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03801-y
Kaihong Zhao

In this paper, we study the solvability and generalized Ulam–Hyers (UH) stability of a nonlinear Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo (ABC) fractional coupled system with a Laplacian operator and impulses. First, this system becomes a nonimpulsive system by applying an appropriate transformation. Secondly, the existence and uniqueness of the solution are obtained by an F-contractive operator and a fixed-point theorem on metric space. Simultaneously, the generalized UH-stability is established based on nonlinear analysis methods. Thirdly, a novel numerical simulation algorithm is provided. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the correctness and availability of the main results. Our study is a beneficial exploration of the dynamic properties of viscoelastic turbulence problems.

本文研究了带有拉普拉斯算子和脉冲的非线性 Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) 分数耦合系统的可解性和广义 Ulam-Hyers (UH) 稳定性。首先,通过应用适当的变换,该系统成为一个非脉冲系统。其次,通过 F-契约算子和度量空间上的定点定理获得了解的存在性和唯一性。同时,基于非线性分析方法建立了广义 UH 稳定性。第三,提供了一种新颖的数值模拟算法。最后,用一个例子说明了主要结果的正确性和可用性。我们的研究是对粘弹性湍流问题动态特性的有益探索。
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引用次数: 0
Controllability of stochastic fractional systems involving state-dependent delay and impulsive effects 涉及状态相关延迟和冲动效应的随机分数系统的可控性
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03799-3

Abstract

In this paper, the controllability concept of a nonlinear fractional stochastic system involving state-dependent delay and impulsive effects is addressed by employing Caputo derivatives and Mittag-Leffler (ML) functions. Based on stochastic analysis theory, novel sufficient conditions are derived for the considered nonlinear system by utilizing Krasnoselkii’s fixed point theorem. Correspondingly, the applicability of the derived theoretical results is indicated by an example.

摘要 本文利用 Caputo 导数和 Mittag-Leffler (ML) 函数,探讨了涉及状态相关延迟和脉冲效应的非线性分数随机系统的可控性概念。基于随机分析理论,利用 Krasnoselkii 定点定理为所考虑的非线性系统推导出了新的充分条件。相应地,通过一个例子说明了所推导理论结果的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
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Advances in Difference Equations
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