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Application of change-point analysis to HPV infection and cervical cancer incidence in Xinjiang, China in 2011–2019 2011-2019年中国新疆HPV感染与宫颈癌发病率的变化点分析应用
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03823-6
Abidan Ailawaer, Yan Wang, Xayda Abduwali, Lei Wang, Ramziya Rifhat

Objective

Cervical cancer (CC), serving as a primary public health challenge, significantly threatens women’s health. However, in terms of change-points, there is still a lack of epidemiological studies on the incidence of HPV infection and CC in Xinjiang,China. This research aims to identify significant changes in the trends of HPV infection and CC prevalence in Xinjiang through change-point analysis (CPA) to provide scientific guidance to health authorities.

Methods

HPV infection and CC time-series data (from January 2011 to December 2019) were collected and analyzed. Meanwhile, their change-points were detected with binary segmentation method and the PELT method. Furthermore, patients were assigned into three groups based on their different ages and subsequently subjected to an analysis employing a segmented regression model (SRM).

Results

It was evident that for the monthly HPV time series, the binary segmentation method detected three change points in August 2015, February 2016, and September 2017 (with the most HPV cases). In contrast, the PELT method detected two change-points in September 2015 and April 2017 (with the most HPV cases). For the monthly CC time series, the binary segmentation method identified two change points in October 2012 and August 2019 (with the most CC cases), whereas the PELT method identified three change points in October 2012, August 2019 (with the most CC cases), and October 2019. The SRM demonstrated varying numbers of change points in distinct groups, with HPV infection and CC having the higher growth rate in the 30–49 and 40–59 age groups, respectively. Based on above results, this research was conductive to comprehending the epidemiology of HPV infection and CC in Xinjiang. In addition, it offered scientific guidance for future prevention and management measures for both HPV infection and CC.

目的宫颈癌(CC)是首要的公共卫生挑战,严重威胁着妇女的健康。然而,就变化点而言,中国新疆的 HPV 感染和 CC 发病率仍缺乏流行病学研究。本研究旨在通过变化点分析(CPA),发现新疆HPV感染和CC流行趋势的显著变化,为卫生部门提供科学指导。方法收集并分析HPV感染和CC的时间序列数据(2011年1月至2019年12月)。同时,采用二元分割法和 PELT 法检测其变化点。此外,根据患者的不同年龄将其分为三组,随后采用分段回归模型(SRM)进行分析。结果很明显,对于每月的 HPV 时间序列,二元分割法检测到了 2015 年 8 月、2016 年 2 月和 2017 年 9 月(HPV 病例最多)的三个变化点。相比之下,PELT 方法在 2015 年 9 月和 2017 年 4 月(HPV 病例最多)检测到两个变化点。对于每月 CC 时间序列,二元分割法在 2012 年 10 月和 2019 年 8 月(CC 病例最多)发现了两个变化点,而 PELT 法在 2012 年 10 月、2019 年 8 月(CC 病例最多)和 2019 年 10 月发现了三个变化点。SRM 在不同年龄组显示出不同数量的变化点,HPV 感染和 CC 在 30-49 岁和 40-59 岁年龄组的增长率分别较高。基于上述结果,本研究有助于了解新疆地区 HPV 感染和 CC 的流行病学情况。此外,它还为今后HPV感染和CC的预防和管理措施提供了科学指导。
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引用次数: 0
Moment dynamics of oligomer formation in protein amyloid aggregation with secondary nucleation 蛋白质淀粉样蛋白聚集过程中寡聚体形成的次级成核矩动力学
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03819-2
Yamin Ding, Liming Cai, Yanmei Kang

The abnormal aggregation of proteins into amyloid fibrils, usually implemented by a series of biochemical reactions, is associated with various neurodegenerative disorders. Considering the intrinsic stochasticity in the involving biochemical reactions, a general chemical master equation model for describing the process from oligomer production to fibril formation is established, and then the lower-order statistical moments of different molecule species are captured by the derivative matching closed system, and the long-time accuracy is verified using the Gillespie algorithm. It is revealed that the aggregation of monomers into oligomers is highly dependent on the initial number of misfolded monomers; the formation of oligomers can be effectively inhibited by reducing the misfolding rate, the primary nucleation rate, elongation rate, and secondary nucleation rate; as the conversion rate decreases, the number of oligomers increases over a long time scale. In particular, sensitivity analysis shows that the quantities of oligomers are more sensitive to monomer production and protein misfolding; the secondary nucleation is more important than the primary nucleation in oligomer formation. These findings are helpful for understanding and predicting the dynamic mechanism of amyloid aggregation from the viewpoint of quantitative analysis.

蛋白质异常聚集成淀粉样纤维通常是通过一系列生化反应实现的,与各种神经退行性疾病有关。考虑到涉及生化反应的内在随机性,建立了描述从低聚物产生到纤维形成过程的一般化学主方程模型,然后通过导数匹配封闭系统捕捉不同分子种类的低阶统计矩,并利用 Gillespie 算法验证了其长期准确性。结果表明,单体聚集成低聚物与初始错误折叠单体的数量有很大关系;通过降低错误折叠率、一次成核率、伸长率和二次成核率,可以有效抑制低聚物的形成;随着转化率的降低,低聚物的数量在长时间尺度上会增加。特别是,敏感性分析表明,低聚物的数量对单体产生和蛋白质错误折叠更敏感;在低聚物形成过程中,二次成核比一次成核更重要。这些发现有助于从定量分析的角度理解和预测淀粉样蛋白聚集的动态机制。
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引用次数: 0
Extinction and stationary distribution of a novel SIRS epidemic model with general incidence rate and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process 具有一般发病率和 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程的新型 SIRS 流行病模型的消亡和静态分布
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03821-8
Hong Cao, Xiaohu Liu, Linfei Nie

We propose, in this paper, a novel stochastic SIRS epidemic model to characterize the effect of uncertainty on the distribution of infectious disease, where the general incidence rate and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process are also introduced to describe the complexity of disease transmission. First, the existence and uniqueness of the global nonnegative solution of our model is obtained, which is the basis for the discussion of the dynamical behavior of the model. And then, we derive a sufficient condition for exponential extinction of infectious diseases. Furthermore, through constructing a Lyapunov function and using Fatou’s lemma, we obtain a sufficient criterion for the existence and ergodicity of a stationary distribution, which implies the persistence of the disease. In addition, the specific form of the density function of the model near the quasiendemic equilibrium is proposed by solving the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation and using some relevant algebraic equation theory. Finally, we explain the above theoretical results through some numerical simulations.

本文提出了一种新的随机 SIRS 流行病模型来描述不确定性对传染病分布的影响,其中还引入了一般发病率和 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程来描述疾病传播的复杂性。首先,我们得到了模型全局非负解的存在性和唯一性,这是讨论模型动力学行为的基础。然后,我们推导出传染病指数消亡的充分条件。此外,通过构建 Lyapunov 函数和使用 Fatou Lemma,我们得到了静态分布存在性和遍历性的充分条件,这意味着疾病的持续性。此外,通过求解相应的福克-普朗克方程,并利用一些相关的代数方程理论,提出了模型在准流行平衡附近密度函数的具体形式。最后,我们通过一些数值模拟来解释上述理论结果。
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引用次数: 0
Convergence of gradient descent for learning linear neural networks 学习线性神经网络的梯度下降收敛性
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-023-03797-x
Gabin Maxime Nguegnang, Holger Rauhut, Ulrich Terstiege

We study the convergence properties of gradient descent for training deep linear neural networks, i.e., deep matrix factorizations, by extending a previous analysis for the related gradient flow. We show that under suitable conditions on the stepsizes gradient descent converges to a critical point of the loss function, i.e., the square loss in this article. Furthermore, we demonstrate that for almost all initializations gradient descent converges to a global minimum in the case of two layers. In the case of three or more layers, we show that gradient descent converges to a global minimum on the manifold matrices of some fixed rank, where the rank cannot be determined a priori.

我们通过扩展之前对相关梯度流的分析,研究了梯度下降训练深度线性神经网络(即深度矩阵因式分解)的收敛特性。我们证明,在步长合适的条件下,梯度下降会收敛到损失函数的临界点,即本文中的平方损失。此外,我们还证明,在两层的情况下,几乎所有的初始化梯度下降都会收敛到全局最小值。在三层或更多层的情况下,我们证明梯度下降会收敛到某个固定秩的流形矩阵上的全局最小值,而秩是无法事先确定的。
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引用次数: 0
A unified stochastic SIR model driven by Lévy noise with time-dependency 由具有时间依赖性的莱维噪声驱动的统一随机 SIR 模型
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03818-3
Terry Easlick, Wei Sun

We propose a unified stochastic SIR model driven by Lévy noise. The model is structural enough to allow for time-dependency, nonlinearity, discontinuity, demography, and environmental disturbances. We present concise results on the existence and uniqueness of positive global solutions and investigate the extinction and persistence of the novel model. Examples and simulations are provided to illustrate the main results.

我们提出了一个由列维噪声驱动的统一随机 SIR 模型。该模型结构合理,可以考虑时间依赖性、非线性、不连续性、人口统计和环境干扰。我们提出了关于正全局解的存在性和唯一性的简明结果,并研究了新模型的消亡和持久性。我们还提供了实例和模拟来说明主要结果。
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引用次数: 0
Trending on the use of Google mobility data in COVID-19 mathematical models 在 COVID-19 数学模型中使用谷歌移动数据的趋势
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03816-5
Yang Deng, Hefei Lin, Daihai He, Yi Zhao

Google mobility data has been widely used in COVID-19 mathematical modeling to understand disease transmission dynamics. This review examines the extensive literature on the use of Google mobility data in COVID-19 mathematical modeling. We mainly focus on over a dozen influential studies using Google mobility data in COVID-19 mathematical modeling, including compartmental and metapopulation models. Google mobility data provides valuable insights into mobility changes and interventions. However, challenges persist in fully elucidating transmission dynamics over time, modeling longer time series and accounting for individual-level correlations in mobility patterns, urging the incorporation of diverse datasets for modeling in the post-COVID-19 landscape.

谷歌移动数据已被广泛应用于 COVID-19 数学建模,以了解疾病传播动态。本综述研究了在 COVID-19 数学模型中使用谷歌移动数据的大量文献。我们主要关注了在 COVID-19 数学模型中使用谷歌移动数据的十几项有影响力的研究,包括区隔模型和元种群模型。谷歌移动数据为移动变化和干预提供了宝贵的见解。然而,在充分阐明随着时间推移的传播动态、建立更长的时间序列模型以及考虑流动模式中个体层面的相关性等方面仍然存在挑战,这就要求在 COVID-19 后的环境中采用不同的数据集进行建模。
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引用次数: 0
Global dynamics of a diffusive competitive Lotka–Volterra model with advection term and more general nonlinear boundary condition 具有平流项和更一般非线性边界条件的扩散竞争 Lotka-Volterra 模型的全局动力学
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03815-6
Genjiao Zhou, Li Ma

We investigate a competitive diffusion–advection Lotka–Volterra model with more general nonlinear boundary condition. Based on some new ideas, techniques, and the theory of the principal spectral and monotone dynamical systems, we establish the influence of the following parameters on the dynamical behavior of system (1.2): advection rates (alpha _{u}) and (alpha _{v}), interspecific competition intensities (c_{u}) and (c_{v}), the resources functions (r_{u}) and (r_{v}) of the two competitive species, and nonlinear boundary functions (g_{1}) and (g_{2}). The models of (Tang and Chen in J. Differ. Equ. 269(2):1465–1483, 2020; Zhou and Zhao in J. Differ. Equ. 264:4176–4198, 2018) are particular cases of our results when (g_{i}equiv const) for (i=1,2), and hence this paper extends some of the conclusions from (Tang and Chen in J. Differ. Equ. 269(2):1465–1483, 2020; Zhou and Zhao in J. Differ. Equ. 264:4176–4198, 2018).

我们研究了具有更一般非线性边界条件的竞争扩散-平流 Lotka-Volterra 模型。基于一些新观点、新技术以及主谱和单调动力学系统理论,我们确定了以下参数对系统(1.A)动力学行为的影响:平流率(α _{u})和((α _{u})。2): 平流速率 (α _{u}) 和 (α _{v}), 种间竞争强度 (c_{u}) 和 (c_{v}), 两个竞争物种的资源函数 (r_{u}) 和 (r_{v}), 以及非线性边界函数 (g_{1}) 和 (g_{2}).Tang and Chen in J. Differ.Equ.269(2):1465-1483, 2020; Zhou and Zhao in J. Differ.Equ.264:4176-4198, 2018)是我们的结果在 (g_{i}equiv const) for (i=1,2) 时的特殊情况,因此本文扩展了(Tang and Chen in J. Differ.Equ.269(2):1465-1483, 2020; Zhou and Zhao in J. Differ.Equ.264:4176-4198, 2018).
{"title":"Global dynamics of a diffusive competitive Lotka–Volterra model with advection term and more general nonlinear boundary condition","authors":"Genjiao Zhou, Li Ma","doi":"10.1186/s13662-024-03815-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-024-03815-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate a competitive diffusion–advection Lotka–Volterra model with more general nonlinear boundary condition. Based on some new ideas, techniques, and the theory of the principal spectral and monotone dynamical systems, we establish the influence of the following parameters on the dynamical behavior of system (1.2): advection rates <span>(alpha _{u})</span> and <span>(alpha _{v})</span>, interspecific competition intensities <span>(c_{u})</span> and <span>(c_{v})</span>, the resources functions <span>(r_{u})</span> and <span>(r_{v})</span> of the two competitive species, and nonlinear boundary functions <span>(g_{1})</span> and <span>(g_{2})</span>. The models of (Tang and Chen in J. Differ. Equ. 269(2):1465–1483, 2020; Zhou and Zhao in J. Differ. Equ. 264:4176–4198, 2018) are particular cases of our results when <span>(g_{i}equiv const)</span> for <span>(i=1,2)</span>, and hence this paper extends some of the conclusions from (Tang and Chen in J. Differ. Equ. 269(2):1465–1483, 2020; Zhou and Zhao in J. Differ. Equ. 264:4176–4198, 2018).</p>","PeriodicalId":49245,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Difference Equations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141523180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generalized kinetic theory of coarse-grained systems. I. Partial equilibrium and Markov approximations 粗粒度系统的广义动力学理论。I. 局部平衡与马尔可夫近似
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03810-x
Bernard Gaveau, Michel Moreau

The general kinetic theory of coarse-grained systems is presented in the abstract formalism of communication theory developed by Shannon and Weaver, Khinchin and Kolmogorov. The martingale theory shows that, under reasonable, general hypotheses, coarse-grained systems can be approximated by generalized Markov systems. For mixing systems, the Kolmogorov entropy production can be defined for nonstationary processes as Kolmogorov defined it for stationary processes.

粗粒度系统的一般动力学理论是在香农和韦弗、辛钦和科尔莫戈罗夫发展的通信理论的抽象形式主义中提出的。鞅理论表明,在合理的一般假设条件下,粗粒度系统可以用广义马尔可夫系统来近似。对于混合系统,可以像科尔莫哥罗夫定义静止过程一样,定义非静止过程的科尔莫哥罗夫熵生成。
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引用次数: 0
Mild solution for $(rho ,k,Psi )$ -proportional Hilfer fractional Cauchy problem (rho,k,Psi)$-比例希尔费分数考奇问题的温和解
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03813-8
Haihua Wang

Hilfer fractional derivative is an important and interesting operator in fractional calculus, and it can be applicable in pure theories and other fields. It yields to other notable definitions, Ψ-Hilfer, ((k,Psi ))-Hilfer derivatives, etc. Motivated by the concepts of the proportional fractional derivative and ((k,Psi ))-Hilfer fractional derivative, we first introduce new definitions of integral and derivative, termed the ((rho ,k,Psi ))-proportional integral and ((rho ,k,Psi ))-proportional Hilfer fractional derivative. This type of fractional derivative is advantageous as it aligns with earlier studies on fractional differential equations. Additionally, we present a more generalized version of the ((rho ,alpha ,beta ,k,r))-resolvent family, followed by an exploration of its properties. By analyzing the generalized resolvent family, we examine the existence of mild solutions to the ((rho ,k,Psi ))-proportional Hilfer fractional Cauchy problem, supported by an illustrative example to show the main result.

Hilfer 分数导数是分数微积分中一个重要而有趣的算子,它可以应用于纯理论和其他领域。它产生了其他著名的定义,如Ψ-Hilfer、((k,Psi ))-Hilfer导数等。受比例分数导数和((k,Psi))-Hilfer分数导数概念的启发,我们首先引入了积分和导数的新定义,即((rho ,k,Psi ))-比例积分和((rho ,k,Psi ))-比例Hilfer分数导数。这种分数导数的优势在于它与早期的分数微分方程研究相一致。此外,我们还提出了一个更广义版本的((rho ,alpha ,beta ,k,r)) -resolvent 族,并对其性质进行了探讨。通过分析广义的Resolvent族,我们考察了((rho ,k,Psi ))-比例Hilfer分数考奇问题的温和解的存在性,并辅以一个说明性的例子来展示主要结果。
{"title":"Mild solution for $(rho ,k,Psi )$ -proportional Hilfer fractional Cauchy problem","authors":"Haihua Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13662-024-03813-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-024-03813-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hilfer fractional derivative is an important and interesting operator in fractional calculus, and it can be applicable in pure theories and other fields. It yields to other notable definitions, Ψ-Hilfer, <span>((k,Psi ))</span>-Hilfer derivatives, etc. Motivated by the concepts of the proportional fractional derivative and <span>((k,Psi ))</span>-Hilfer fractional derivative, we first introduce new definitions of integral and derivative, termed the <span>((rho ,k,Psi ))</span>-proportional integral and <span>((rho ,k,Psi ))</span>-proportional Hilfer fractional derivative. This type of fractional derivative is advantageous as it aligns with earlier studies on fractional differential equations. Additionally, we present a more generalized version of the <span>((rho ,alpha ,beta ,k,r))</span>-resolvent family, followed by an exploration of its properties. By analyzing the generalized resolvent family, we examine the existence of mild solutions to the <span>((rho ,k,Psi ))</span>-proportional Hilfer fractional Cauchy problem, supported by an illustrative example to show the main result.</p>","PeriodicalId":49245,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Difference Equations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141196499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the hyperbolic nonlinear Schrödinger equations 关于双曲非线性薛定谔方程
IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-024-03811-w
Jean-Claude Saut, Yuexun Wang

Here, we consider here Hyperbolic Nonlinear Schrödinger Equations (HNLS) that occur as asymptotic models in the modulational regime when the Hessian of the dispersion relation is not positive (or negative) definite. We review classical examples, well-known results, and main open questions.

在这里,我们考虑的是超曲非线性薛定谔方程(HNLS),当频散关系的 Hessian 不是正(或负)定值时,这些方程会作为渐近模型出现在调制系统中。我们将回顾经典例子、著名结果和主要开放问题。
{"title":"On the hyperbolic nonlinear Schrödinger equations","authors":"Jean-Claude Saut, Yuexun Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13662-024-03811-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-024-03811-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Here, we consider here <i>Hyperbolic Nonlinear Schrödinger Equations</i> (HNLS) that occur as asymptotic models in the modulational regime when the Hessian of the dispersion relation is not positive (or negative) definite. We review classical examples, well-known results, and main open questions.</p>","PeriodicalId":49245,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Difference Equations","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141167741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Advances in Difference Equations
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