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MEHGNet: a multi-feature extraction and high-resolution generative network for satellite cloud image sequence prediction MEHGNet:用于卫星云图序列预测的多特征提取和高分辨率生成网络
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01432-1
Ben Xie, Jing Dong, Chang Liu, Wei Cheng

Satellite cloud image sequences contain rich spatial and temporal information, and forecasting future cloud image sequences is of great significance for meteorological research. Traditional satellite cloud image prediction methods usually ignore nonlinear variations in cloud masses, leading to large errors in prediction results and low prediction efficiency. The use of existing video prediction methods for satellite cloud image sequence prediction also suffers from problems of blurred prediction images and the accumulation of sequence errors. To address these issues, we propose a Multi-feature Extraction and High-resolution Generative Network (MEHGNet) for the prediction of satellite cloud image sequences, which consists of an encoder, a translator, a decoder, and a generator. To learn the spatial features and spatiotemporal dependencies of cloud images, 2D convolution multi-head attention mechanisms and local residue connections are introduced to the encoder and decoder. The generator preserves detailed features and improves the resolution of the predicted images using the generative ability of generative adversarial networks. In addition, a motion-aware loss function is proposed to learn high-level features of motion variations among cloud image sequences. Experiments on satellite datasets demonstrate that the proposed method is superior compared to other prediction methods.

卫星云图序列包含丰富的时空信息,预测未来云图序列对气象研究具有重要意义。传统的卫星云图预测方法通常会忽略云团的非线性变化,导致预测结果误差大、预测效率低。使用现有的视频预测方法进行卫星云图序列预测,还存在预测图像模糊和序列误差累积的问题。针对这些问题,我们提出了一种用于卫星云图序列预测的多特征提取和高分辨率生成网络(MEHGNet),它由编码器、翻译器、解码器和生成器组成。为了学习云图像的空间特征和时空相关性,编码器和解码器引入了二维卷积多头注意力机制和局部残差连接。生成器利用生成对抗网络的生成能力,保留了详细特征并提高了预测图像的分辨率。此外,还提出了一种运动感知损失函数,用于学习云图像序列间运动变化的高级特征。在卫星数据集上进行的实验表明,与其他预测方法相比,所提出的方法更胜一筹。
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引用次数: 0
Deep learning-aided simultaneous missing well log prediction in multiple stratigraphic units: a case study from the Bhogpara oil field, Upper Assam, Northeast India 深度学习辅助多地层单元同步缺失测井预测:印度东北部上阿萨姆邦博格帕拉油田案例研究
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01425-0
Bappa Mukherjee, Kalachand Sain, Sohan Kar, Srivardhan V

Accurate well log data is critical for subsurface characterisation and decision-making in the petroleum exploration. We explore and compare the effectiveness of three distinct deep leaning (DL) approaches—Long Short-Term Memory, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory networks—in predicting missing well log data, a common challenge in the data acquired by Energy and Production (E&P) companies. Our analysis revealed the complex, nonlinear relationships present in geophysical logs through correlation matrix and determining the rank of predictor features through Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) analysis. To weigh these models, we used real-field wireline log datasets from the Bhogpara oil field of Upper Assam basin. The performance of each model is evaluated through root mean square error, correlation coefficients, mean absolute error and variance between actual and predicted values. The uncertainty of the models was facilitated by Monte Carlo simulation. Deep learning models accurately predicted neutron porosity logs from gamma-ray, resistivity, density, and photoelectric factor logs. The high correlation coefficients during the training (exceeding 0.90) and test (exceeding 0.97) phases illustrated the predictive precision of the DL models. Conv-LSTM consistently outperforms LSTM and Bi-LSTM, indicating the integration of convolutional layers in feature extraction offers a significant advantage in capturing intricate patterns in log data. The research showcases the effectiveness of deep learning architectures in predicting missing logs, a crucial aspect for E&P companies, as log data is vital for decision-making. The study presents a novel method for preserving data integrity and facilitating informed decision-making.

准确的测井数据对于地下特征描述和石油勘探决策至关重要。我们探索并比较了三种不同的深度倾斜(DL)方法--长短期记忆、双向长短期记忆和卷积长短期记忆网络--在预测缺失测井数据中的有效性,这是能源和生产(E&P)公司在获取数据时面临的共同挑战。我们的分析通过相关矩阵揭示了地球物理测井中存在的复杂非线性关系,并通过最小冗余最大相关性(MRMR)分析确定了预测特征的等级。为了权衡这些模型,我们使用了来自上阿萨姆盆地博格帕拉油田的真实现场有线测井数据集。通过均方根误差、相关系数、平均绝对误差以及实际值与预测值之间的方差,对每个模型的性能进行了评估。模型的不确定性通过蒙特卡洛模拟得以确定。深度学习模型可以根据伽马射线、电阻率、密度和光电因子测井曲线准确预测中子孔隙度测井曲线。训练阶段(超过 0.90)和测试阶段(超过 0.97)的高相关系数说明了深度学习模型的预测精度。Conv-LSTM 始终优于 LSTM 和 Bi-LSTM,表明在特征提取中整合卷积层在捕捉日志数据中的复杂模式方面具有显著优势。这项研究展示了深度学习架构在预测缺失日志方面的有效性,这对勘探开发公司来说至关重要,因为日志数据对决策至关重要。该研究提出了一种新型方法,可用于维护数据完整性和促进知情决策。
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引用次数: 0
A novel secure scheme for remote sensing image transmission: an integrated approach with compression and encoding 遥感图像传输的新型安全方案:包含压缩和编码的综合方法
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01424-1
Haiyang Shen, Jinqing Li, Xiaoqiang Di, Xusheng Li, Zhenxun Liu, Makram Ibrahim

With the advancement of technology and the maturity of various aerial imaging techniques, data proprietors have awareness of the importance of secure protection for remote sensing images. In order to protect sensitive data of images, we propose a secure encoding scheme for compressing remote sensing images to decrease potential risks of data disclosure associated with such images. First, we designed the Sin chaos paradigm for constructing chaotic systems in various dimensions. As a result through relevant experiments, this chaos paradigm demonstrated effective scalability and stability. In addition, DNA transposition methods have been introduced to extend DNA encoding, expanding the range of DNA encoding from 1 to 4 and achieving dynamic selection of DNA transposition methods. This method reduces potential threats that conflict with fixed DNA encoding methods. In addition, in order to ensure the security of symmetric encryption and the efficiency of asymmetric encryption during key transmission, an elliptical curve “ring” key hiding strategy is adopted. Although the key embedding occupies 1.2% of the space in the ciphertext image, data redundancy realizes the implicit transmission of the key, improving the decryption efficiency of remote sensing images. In response to the above research, we propose a secure compression encoding scheme based on Sin chaotic paradigm and DNA transposition to ensure the security of remote sensing images. After cropping the original remote sensing image to a size of 1/16, the original image can still be decrypted. In addition, when the noise attack reaches 0.3, the ciphertext image can also be restored. Performance analysis and experimental data results show that our proposed secure compression encoding scheme has excellent robustness and security.

随着技术的进步和各种航空成像技术的成熟,数据所有者已经意识到安全保护遥感图像的重要性。为了保护图像的敏感数据,我们提出了一种用于压缩遥感图像的安全编码方案,以降低此类图像数据泄露的潜在风险。首先,我们设计了用于构建各种维度混沌系统的 Sin 混沌范式。通过相关实验,该混沌范式表现出了有效的可扩展性和稳定性。此外,我们还引入了DNA转置方法来扩展DNA编码,将DNA编码的范围从1扩展到4,并实现了DNA转置方法的动态选择。这种方法减少了与固定 DNA 编码方法相冲突的潜在威胁。此外,为了确保密钥传输过程中对称加密的安全性和非对称加密的效率,采用了椭圆曲线 "环形 "密钥隐藏策略。虽然密钥嵌入占据了密文图像 1.2% 的空间,但数据冗余实现了密钥的隐式传输,提高了遥感图像的解密效率。针对上述研究,我们提出了一种基于Sin混沌范式和DNA转置的安全压缩编码方案,以确保遥感图像的安全性。将原始遥感图像裁剪为 1/16 大小后,仍可解密原始图像。此外,当噪声攻击达到 0.3 时,密文图像也能还原。性能分析和实验数据结果表明,我们提出的安全压缩编码方案具有出色的鲁棒性和安全性。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive review of AI and ML tools for earthquake damage assessment and retrofitting strategies 全面审查用于地震破坏评估和改造战略的人工智能和 ML 工具
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01431-2
P. K. S. Bhadauria

This comprehensive review paper examines the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) tools in earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on damage assessment and retrofitting strategies. The paper begins with an introduction to AI and its significance in structural engineering, highlighting the need for advanced methodologies to address seismic challenges. A detailed review of recent applications of ML, Pattern Recognition (PR), and Deep Learning (DL) in earthquake engineering is provided, showcasing their capabilities in surpassing the limitations of traditional models. The advantages of employing these algorithmic methods in damage assessment, retrofitting designs, risk prediction, and structural optimization are discussed extensively. Furthermore, the paper identifies potential research avenues and emerging trends in AI/ML applications for earthquake resilience, while also addressing the challenges and limitations associated with these technologies. Overall, this review paper offers a comprehensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in AI and ML tools for earthquake damage assessment and retrofitting strategies, paving the way for future advancements in seismic resilience engineering.

这篇综合综述论文探讨了人工智能(AI)和机器学习(ML)工具在地震工程中的应用,尤其关注破坏评估和改造策略。论文首先介绍了人工智能及其在结构工程中的意义,强调了采用先进方法应对地震挑战的必要性。本文详细回顾了人工智能、模式识别(PR)和深度学习(DL)在地震工程中的最新应用,展示了它们超越传统模型局限的能力。论文广泛讨论了在损害评估、改造设计、风险预测和结构优化中采用这些算法方法的优势。此外,本文还指出了人工智能/ML 应用于抗震方面的潜在研究途径和新兴趋势,同时还探讨了与这些技术相关的挑战和局限性。总之,本综述论文全面概述了当前用于地震破坏评估和改造策略的人工智能和 ML 工具的最先进水平,为未来抗震工程的进步铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Regularization in machine learning models for MVT Pb-Zn prospectivity mapping: applying lasso and elastic-net algorithms 用于 MVT 铅锌矿远景测绘的机器学习模型中的正则化:应用套索和弹性网算法
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01404-5
Mahsa Hajihosseinlou, Abbas Maghsoudi, Reza Ghezelbash

The current research employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and Elastic-net algorithms to examine their potential utilization in MVT Pb-Zn prospectivity modeling. In training the model, both Elastic-net and Lasso regularization approaches include a penalty term to the loss function. Since this penalty term limits the feature coefficients, the model is motivated to prioritize the most informative features and penalize the less relevant ones. The Varcheh district in western Iran was the source of the geological, geochemical, tectonic, and alteration dataset. We applied stratified 5-fold cross-validation to train the dataset, ensuring consistent and comprehensive performance evaluation across different data subsets. This method improved data utilization and provided more reliable performance estimates by averaging metrics over multiple folds, thereby enhancing the model’s generalization assessment. The hyperparameters were adjusted using random search, quickly finding near-optimal solutions. Our investigation revealed that Elastic-net exhibited superior prediction accuracy and model robustness compared to Lasso. The combination of L1 and L2 regularization in Elastic-net, offers a more adaptable technique than Lasso, which just utilizes L1 regularization. This feature enables Elastic-net to handle scenarios in which there have been correlated predictors successfully.

目前的研究采用了最小绝对收缩和选择算子(Lasso)算法和弹性网算法,以检验它们在 MVT 铅锌矿勘探建模中的潜在应用。在训练模型时,弹性网和 Lasso 正则化方法都在损失函数中加入了惩罚项。由于惩罚项限制了特征系数,因此模型会优先考虑信息量最大的特征,而惩罚相关性较低的特征。伊朗西部的瓦尔切地区是地质、地球化学、构造和蚀变数据集的来源。我们采用分层 5 倍交叉验证来训练数据集,确保在不同数据子集中进行一致而全面的性能评估。这种方法提高了数据利用率,通过对多个折叠的指标进行平均,提供了更可靠的性能估计,从而增强了模型的泛化评估。超参数是通过随机搜索调整的,能快速找到接近最优的解决方案。我们的调查显示,与 Lasso 相比,Elastic-net 表现出更高的预测准确性和模型稳健性。与只使用 L1 正则化的 Lasso 相比,Elastic-net 中 L1 和 L2 正则化的结合提供了一种适应性更强的技术。这一特点使 Elastic-net 能够成功处理存在相关预测因子的情况。
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引用次数: 0
TL-iTransformer: Revolutionizing sea surface temperature prediction through iTransformer and transfer learning TL-iTransformer:通过 iTransformer 和迁移学习革新海面温度预测
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01436-x
Wanhai Jia, Shaopeng Guan, Yuewei Xue

The dynamics of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are crucial for maintaining the balance of marine ecosystems. While existing artificial intelligence methods offer powerful tools for SST prediction, they struggle with data sparsity issues. To enhance SST prediction accuracy under sparse data conditions, this study proposes an innovative prediction model: TL-iTransformer. This model is based on the iTransformer architecture and incorporates transfer learning techniques specifically tailored for SST prediction. We begin by extracting SST features from data-rich sea areas (source sea areas) using a transfer learning strategy, integrating these features into the iTransformer model for pre-training. This process imparts the model with a priori knowledge and basic prediction capabilities, enabling it to adapt to data-sparse sea areas (target sea areas). The model is then fine-tuned using domain adaptive techniques to accurately capture the data characteristics and distribution patterns of the target sea area. We conducted a series of experiments using a real SST dataset from the sea area of British Columbia, Canada. The results demonstrate that TL-iTransformer maintains the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) within 0.144 and 0.356, respectively, under data sparsity conditions. Additionally, it outperforms four mainstream time-series prediction baseline models as the prediction time span increases. The proposed model can effectively address the issue of SST prediction in situations with sparse data.

海表温度(SST)的动态变化对维持海洋生态系统的平衡至关重要。虽然现有的人工智能方法为 SST 预测提供了强大的工具,但它们在数据稀疏性问题上却举步维艰。为了提高稀疏数据条件下的 SST 预测精度,本研究提出了一种创新的预测模型:TL-iTransformer。该模型基于 iTransformer 架构,并结合了专门针对 SST 预测的迁移学习技术。我们首先利用迁移学习策略从数据丰富的海区(源海区)提取 SST 特征,并将这些特征整合到 iTransformer 模型中进行预训练。这一过程为模型提供了先验知识和基本预测能力,使其能够适应数据稀少的海域(目标海域)。然后使用领域自适应技术对模型进行微调,以准确捕捉目标海域的数据特征和分布模式。我们使用加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚海域的真实 SST 数据集进行了一系列实验。结果表明,在数据稀疏条件下,TL-iTransformer 的平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均平方误差(MSE)分别保持在 0.144 和 0.356 以内。此外,随着预测时间跨度的增加,该模型的性能优于四个主流时间序列预测基线模型。所提出的模型能有效解决数据稀疏情况下的 SST 预测问题。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Ionospheric scintillation characteristics over Indian region from latitudinally-aligned geodetic GPS observations 更正:根据纬度对齐的大地测量全球定位系统观测数据得出的印度地区上空电离层闪烁特征
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01420-5
Sampad Kumar Panda, Mefe Moses, Kutubuddin Ansari, Janusz Walo

The article “Ionospheric scintillation characteristics over Indian region from latitudinally-aligned geodetic GPS observations” was originally published Online First without open access. After publication in volume 16, issue 3, page 2675–2691, the author decided to opt for Open Choice and to make the article an open access publication.

文章 "Ionospheric scintillation characteristics over Indian region from latitudally-aligned geodetic GPS observations "最初发表于《在线首发》,未开放获取。在第16卷第3期第2675-2691页发表后,作者决定选择 "开放选择",将文章作为开放存取出版物。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of occupants’ characteristics impact on thermal comfort assessment using a novel neural network PMVo calculation model 利用新型神经网络 PMVo 计算模型研究居住者特征对热舒适度评估的影响
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01421-4
Anton Kerčov, Tamara Bajc, Radiša Jovanović

The main aim of this study is the analysis of the impact that occupants’ characteristics have on thermal comfort assessment, through establishing a novel PMVo model using an approximation method, based on the experimental data. The parameters which are chosen as model’s inputs are the air temperature, mean radiant temperature, relative humidity, basic clothing insulation, air velocity and occupants characteristics – gender, age, height, and body mass, while the output is the PMVo, a novel thermal comfort index. Since existing standards concerning thermal comfort do not consider these occupants’ characteristics, the main novelty of the introduced model is the inclusion of occupants’ characteristics in the thermal comfort assessment. To ensure enhanced precision, the model is established using both linear regression and by training neural network. These two approximation methods are compared to determine which one is more applicable in the context of data approximation. Study shows that regardless of dataset based on which models are established and regardless of testing input values, neural network (R2 in the range of 99.87% to 99.96%) is a superior mathematical approximation algorithm compared to the linear regression (R2 in the range of 95.3% to 97.5%). Novel neural network based thermal comfort assessment model is used for investigation of occupants’ characteristics impact on thermal comfort assessment. Analysis of the results showed that gender, age, height and body mass may significantly impact thermal comfort indices calculation, which implies the necessity of their inclusion in thermal comfort prediction and evaluation. Thus, the presented PMVo model may be highly beneficial to implement within existing thermal comfort standards, ensuring well-being and satisfaction with conditions of indoor environment for wider range of the occupants.

Graphical abstract

本研究的主要目的是根据实验数据,采用近似法建立一个新型 PMVo 模型,分析居住者特征对热舒适度评估的影响。作为模型输入的参数包括空气温度、平均辐射温度、相对湿度、基本衣物隔热性能、风速和居住者特征(性别、年龄、身高和体重),而输出则是 PMVo(一种新型热舒适度指数)。由于现有的热舒适度标准并不考虑居住者的这些特征,因此引入模型的主要创新之处在于将居住者的特征纳入热舒适度评估中。为确保提高精确度,模型的建立采用了线性回归和训练神经网络两种方法。对这两种近似方法进行了比较,以确定哪种方法更适用于数据近似。研究表明,无论建立模型的数据集和测试输入值如何,神经网络(R2 在 99.87% 至 99.96% 之间)都是一种优于线性回归(R2 在 95.3% 至 97.5% 之间)的数学近似算法。基于神经网络的新型热舒适度评估模型用于研究居住者特征对热舒适度评估的影响。分析结果表明,性别、年龄、身高和体重可能会对热舒适度指数的计算产生重大影响,这意味着有必要将其纳入热舒适度预测和评估中。因此,提出的 PMVo 模型可能非常有利于在现有热舒适标准中实施,确保更多居住者对室内环境条件感到舒适和满意。
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引用次数: 0
Real-time flash flood detection employing the YOLOv8 model 利用 YOLOv8 模型实时探测山洪暴发
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01428-x
Nguyen Hong Quang, Hanna Lee, Namhoon Kim, Gihong Kim

Human lives and property are threatened by Flash floods (FF) worldwide and as a result of the unprecedented conditions of the climate change effects the losses are predicted to increase in the future. As it seems difficult to avoid and prevent them, real-time flash flood detections could be an appropriate solution for damage reduction and better management. Currently, the development of computer vision applications such as deep learning and AI has been advanced. Although AI models have been developed for applications in many fields, their implementations for geosciences are limited based on large amounts of training data and the highly required computational infrastructure. Hence, this work aims to train the latest YOLOv8 model and apply it to real-time flash flood detection for regions of Korea and possibly for other nations. To overcome the shortage of training data, we created small on-site flash flood models and took pictures and footage of them. More than 1500 photos of FF were used for model trains and validations gaining a model mean average precision of above 60% of all training depths (25, 50, 75, and 100 epochs). Despite some model false positives and missed false positive detections using the Korean FF test dataset, the YOLOv8 best model generated bounding boxes (BB) with high confidence values in most FF events. Furthermore, the robustness of the model is highlighted by its ability to smoothly detect the precise positions of the FF areas with high confidence values (best 0.86) when applied for input footage and webcam streams. It is highly encouraged to establish a real-time FF warning system to reduce their negative effects. Although YOLO is effective and fast, like other deep learning models, it requires large input data to ensure higher accuracy and confidence. Future works might explore this aspect, particularly the data acquired in light inefficiency to improve the model detections at night time.

全球范围内,人类的生命和财产都受到山洪(FF)的威胁,而由于气候变化影响带来的前所未有的条件,预计未来的损失还会增加。由于似乎很难避免和预防山洪暴发,实时检测山洪暴发可能是减少损失和改善管理的适当解决方案。目前,计算机视觉应用(如深度学习和人工智能)的发展十分迅速。虽然人工智能模型已被开发应用于许多领域,但基于大量的训练数据和所需的高计算基础设施,它们在地球科学领域的实施受到了限制。因此,这项工作旨在训练最新的 YOLOv8 模型,并将其应用于韩国地区以及可能的其他国家的山洪爆发实时检测。为了克服训练数据不足的问题,我们创建了小型现场山洪模型,并对其进行了拍照和录像。1500多张FF照片被用于模型训练和验证,在所有训练深度(25、50、75和100个epochs)中,模型平均精度超过60%。尽管在韩国 FF 测试数据集中出现了一些模型误报和漏报,但 YOLOv8 最佳模型在大多数 FF 事件中生成的边界框(BB)的置信度都很高。此外,在应用于输入镜头和网络摄像头流时,该模型能够以高置信度值(最佳值 0.86)顺利检测到 FF 区域的精确位置,从而凸显了模型的鲁棒性。我们强烈建议建立一个实时 FF 警告系统,以减少其负面影响。虽然 YOLO 与其他深度学习模型一样有效、快速,但它需要大量输入数据才能确保更高的准确度和置信度。未来的工作可能会在这方面进行探索,特别是在光照不足的情况下获取数据,以提高模型在夜间的检测能力。
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引用次数: 0
Tropical cyclone ensemble forecast framework based on spatiotemporal model 基于时空模型的热带气旋集合预报框架
IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s12145-024-01418-z
Tongfei Li, Kaihua Che, Jiadong Lu, Yifan Zeng, Wei Lv, Zhiyao Liang

To explore tropical cyclone prediction methods that integrate multimodal meteorological data, this study proposes a novel approach. The proposed model employs an LSTM-based temporal branch to extract temporal sequence features from the CMA dataset and a U-Net-based spatial branch to extract three-dimensional spatial features from the ERA5 dataset. These features are then fused through an encoder-decoder structure to integrate high-dimensional spatiotemporal characteristics. Experimental results demonstrate that the spatiotemporal model significantly improves the prediction accuracy for 24-hour lead times. Subsequently, to further optimize the experimental results, the study introduces an ensemble forecasting framework. This framework enhances prediction accuracy by adjusting the outputs of multiple spatiotemporal model prediction members. The optimization is achieved by solving the objective function that reflects the forecast geographical error, thereby optimizing the weighted coefficients. The experimental results indicate that the ensemble forecasting framework can further optimize prediction outcomes.

为了探索整合多模态气象数据的热带气旋预测方法,本研究提出了一种新方法。该模型采用基于 LSTM 的时间分支从 CMA 数据集中提取时间序列特征,并采用基于 U-Net 的空间分支从 ERA5 数据集中提取三维空间特征。然后通过编码器-解码器结构融合这些特征,从而整合高维时空特征。实验结果表明,时空模型显著提高了 24 小时前置时间的预测精度。随后,为了进一步优化实验结果,研究引入了集合预测框架。该框架通过调整多个时空模型预测成员的输出来提高预测精度。优化是通过求解反映预测地理误差的目标函数来实现的,从而优化加权系数。实验结果表明,集合预测框架可以进一步优化预测结果。
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引用次数: 0
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Earth Science Informatics
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