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Can an identified environmental correlate of car ownership serve as a practical planning tool? 已确定的汽车拥有量的环境相关因素能否作为实用的规划工具?
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104304
Jason Cao , Tao Tao
Previous studies suggest that improving built environment attributes (such as dense development and transit access) has the potential to reduce car ownership. However, most of them overlook the possible plateau association, in which car ownership shows little change as a built environment variable increases within a certain range . Applying gradient boosting decision trees to data from the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, this study reveals the complex nonlinear relationships between built environment attributes and car ownership. The results show that although population density and intersection density are strongly and negatively related to car ownership, car ownership exhibits little variation within the middle ranges of these two variables. These plateau associations suggest that reducing car ownership through population and intersection densification is challenging in planning practice. In contrast, directing population growth towards central cities and inner-inning suburbs and densifying transit stops are more promising interventions.
以往的研究表明,改善建筑环境属性(如密集开发和交通便利)有可能减少汽车拥有量。然而,大多数研究都忽略了可能存在的高原关联,即随着建筑环境变量在一定范围内的增加,汽车保有量几乎没有变化。本研究将梯度提升决策树应用于明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗大都会区的数据,揭示了建筑环境属性与汽车保有量之间复杂的非线性关系。研究结果表明,虽然人口密度和交叉路口密度与汽车保有量呈负相关,但在这两个变量的中间范围内,汽车保有量几乎没有变化。这些高原关联表明,在规划实践中,通过提高人口密度和交叉口密度来降低汽车拥有率具有挑战性。相比之下,将人口增长引向中心城市和内环郊区以及提高公交站点密度是更有前景的干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Does perceived accessibility affect travel behavior or vice versa? Alternative theories testing bidirectional effects and (in)consistency over time 感知到的可及性是否会影响旅行行为,反之亦然?检验双向效应和(不)随时间变化的一致性的替代理论
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104318
Milad Mehdizadeh , Maarten Kroesen
In theory, the unidirectional relationship between perception and behavior has been well established. In this line, the relationship between perceived accessibility and travel behavior has also gained traction in the transport domain. There is, however, less knowledge regarding the dynamic of bidirectional effects between these two variables and (in)consistency over time. Employing the Netherlands Mobility Panel data, we investigate the direction of the (causal) effect between perceived accessibility and travel behavior/travel preference. Using a two-wave cross-lagged panel model, we test how this theory works among urban travelers (n = 4,946). The findings show that the relationship between perceived accessibility and travel-related decisions varies depending on the transport mode and whether it is about travel behavior or preference. The effects might show bidirectionality, unidirectionality, or neither. Findings highlight that the perception-behavior theory is primarily consistent with revealed travel behavior as opposed to stated preferences. We find a bidirectional perception-(travel) behavior relationship. Unlike conventional wisdom and commonly used theoretical links, we find that travel mode use has a larger impact on perceived mode-specific accessibility than the reverse effect (the more expected link). Travel behavior also shows consistently lower levels of perception-behavior dissonance than preferences do. The study finds that perception consistently influences public transport use and preferences, unlike for cars and bicycles. Policy-wise, this implies that efforts aimed at correcting misperceptions about the accessibility of public transport could still have a positive impact on individuals’ decisions to choose public transport.
从理论上讲,感知与行为之间的单向关系已经得到了很好的证实。因此,在交通领域,交通可达性感知与出行行为之间的关系也越来越受到重视。然而,人们对这两个变量之间的双向效应动态以及随时间变化的(不)一致性了解较少。利用荷兰交通面板数据,我们研究了感知可达性与旅行行为/旅行偏好之间的(因果)效应方向。通过两波交叉滞后面板模型,我们检验了这一理论在城市旅行者(n = 4946)中的作用。研究结果表明,交通便利感与旅行相关决策之间的关系因交通方式而异,也因旅行行为或偏好而异。其影响可能是双向的,也可能是单向的,或者两者都不是。研究结果突出表明,感知-行为理论主要与显性旅行行为相一致,而非显性偏好。我们发现感知与(旅行)行为之间存在双向关系。与传统观点和常用的理论联系不同,我们发现旅行模式的使用对感知到的特定模式可达性的影响大于反向影响(更符合预期的联系)。与偏好相比,旅行行为也始终显示出较低的感知-行为失调水平。研究发现,与汽车和自行车不同,人们的认知会持续影响公共交通的使用和偏好。从政策角度看,这意味着旨在纠正人们对公共交通可达性的错误认识的努力仍会对个人选择公共交通的决定产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding changes in traffic demand during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games 了解 2020 年东京奥运会和残奥会期间交通需求的变化
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104308
Takao Dantsuji , Masaki Nakagawa
This paper evaluated the effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on traffic demand on the Metropolitan expressway. We constructed panel data for both passenger and freight vehicles’ demand using longitudinal disaggregated trip records from the Metropolitan expressway. Subsequently, we established a demand function and used a difference-in-differences method to individually estimate the impacts of toll surcharges and other Olympics-related factors by leveraging the fact that the toll surcharges were not applied to freight vehicles.
The results indicate that toll surcharges resulted in a decrease of 25.0% for weekdays and 36.8% for weekends/holidays in passenger vehicle demand on the Metropolitan expressway. The estimated toll elasticities are 0.345 for weekdays and 0.615 for weekends/holidays, respectively. Notably, analysis of the Olympics-related factor demonstrated that travel demand management (TDM) strategies effectively curbed demand on weekends/holidays with a reduction of 2.9% in traffic demand. However, on weekdays, induced demand surpassed the reduction of demand by other TDM strategies than tolling, resulting in a 4.6% increase in traffic demand.
Additionally, We developed a zone-based demand function and investigate the spatial heterogeneity in toll elasticity. Our findings revealed small heterogeneity for weekdays (0.283 to 0.509) and large heterogeneity for weekends/holidays (0.484 to 0.935).
本文评估了 2020 年东京奥运会和残奥会对首都高速公路交通需求的影响。我们利用首都高速公路的纵向分类出行记录,构建了客运和货运车辆需求的面板数据。随后,我们建立了一个需求函数,并利用收费附加费不适用货运车辆这一事实,使用差分法单独估算了收费附加费和其他奥运相关因素的影响。结果表明,收费附加费导致大都会高速公路的客运车辆需求在工作日下降了 25.0%,在周末/节假日下降了 36.8%。平日和周末/节假日的估计收费弹性分别为 0.345 和 0.615。值得注意的是,对奥运相关因素的分析表明,出行需求管理(TDM)策略有效地抑制了周末/节假日的需求,使交通需求减少了 2.9%。此外,我们还开发了基于区域的需求函数,并研究了收费弹性的空间异质性。我们的研究结果显示,工作日的异质性较小(0.283 至 0.509),而周末/节假日的异质性较大(0.484 至 0.935)。
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引用次数: 0
Developing a 15-minute city policy? Understanding differences between policies and physical barriers 制定 15 分钟城市政策?了解政策与物理障碍之间的差异
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104307
Michael Lu, Ehab Diab
The concept of a x-minute (or 15-minute) city has recently gained prominence as an influential urban planning approach. Recent research showed how American, Canadian, and Australian cities operationalized the concept differently using diverse temporal cut-off values and types of destinations. Despite this, there has been little effort to understand how different 15-minute city policies are comparable, and to what extent physical elements in cities can affect realizing the concept. To address this gap, this study aims to understand parallels and differences between these policies while understanding the impacts of the city’s structuring elements on the probability of achieving them. Using a wide array of spatial and transportation data for the City of Saskatoon, the paper develops five different 15-minute city policies based on four different city plans at the parcel level. Using summary statistics and multilevel logistic regressions previous policies were analyzed. The study shows considerable differences between policies in terms of the conclusions they convey. For example, different policies led to diverse results regarding their relationship with people’s socioeconomic issues, and thereby equity assessment. Additionally, the study shows that some physical elements such as highways, large parks, and rail lines have a consistent negative impact on the probability of realizing 15-minute city goals, regardless of the used policy. Other elements had a mixed effect according to the used policy. This study offers cities a better understanding of the performance of different 15-minute city policies and the relative challenges in realizing them, helping cities achieve their broader sustainability and equity goals.
x 分钟(或 15 分钟)城市的概念最近作为一种有影响力的城市规划方法而备受瞩目。最近的研究表明,美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的城市是如何利用不同的时间分界值和目的地类型来实现这一概念的。尽管如此,人们对不同的 15 分钟城市政策之间的可比性,以及城市中的物理要素在多大程度上会影响这一概念的实现却知之甚少。为了填补这一空白,本研究旨在了解这些政策之间的相似之处和不同之处,同时了解城市结构要素对实现这些政策的可能性的影响。本文利用萨斯卡通市的大量空间和交通数据,根据四种不同的城市规划,在地块层面上制定了五种不同的 15 分钟城市政策。利用汇总统计和多层次逻辑回归分析了以前的政策。研究表明,不同政策所得出的结论存在很大差异。例如,不同的政策在与人们的社会经济问题的关系方面导致了不同的结果,从而导致了公平评估。此外,研究还表明,一些物理要素,如高速公路、大型公园和铁路线,无论采用何种政策,都会对实现 15 分钟城市目标的概率产生一致的负面影响。其他要素则根据所使用的政策而产生不同的影响。这项研究让城市更好地了解不同 15 分钟城市政策的表现以及实现这些政策所面临的相对挑战,从而帮助城市实现更广泛的可持续发展和公平目标。
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引用次数: 0
Potential effects of parent–child joint school trips on parents’ wellbeing: A conceptual framework 亲子联合游学对父母幸福的潜在影响:概念框架
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104299
Azamsadat Hosseini Shoabjareh, Milad Ghasri
In recent years, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of parents accompanying their children to school. Existing literature has primarily focused on the motivations behind this decision and its impact on children’s wellbeing, while the effect of children’s school trips on parents’ wellbeing is not sufficiently studied. To address this gap, this study employs “value of children” and “demand and reward” theories to provide a conceptual framework that demonstrates how taking children to school can influence parents’ wellbeing through different channels. Using the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), which contains data from 10,000 Australian children and their parents, we develop a structural equation model (SEM) to examine the connections within the proposed conceptual framework. Our findings reveal that when parents accompany their children to school, it improves the quality of their parent–child relationship, leading to an increase in overall wellbeing. Furthermore, when parents and children walk to school together, it enhances parents’ physical health and wellbeing. However, using public transport to take children to school increases parents’ time pressure and undermines their wellbeing.
近年来,陪同子女上学的家长人数明显增加。现有文献主要关注这一决定背后的动机及其对儿童福祉的影响,而对儿童游学对父母福祉的影响研究不足。为了弥补这一不足,本研究采用了 "儿童价值 "和 "需求与回报 "理论,提供了一个概念框架,说明带孩子上学如何通过不同渠道影响家长的幸福感。我们利用包含 10,000 名澳大利亚儿童及其父母数据的《澳大利亚儿童纵向研究》(LSAC),建立了一个结构方程模型(SEM),以研究拟议概念框架内的联系。我们的研究结果表明,当父母陪同子女上学时,他们与子女之间的关系会得到改善,从而提高整体幸福感。此外,当父母和子女一起步行上学时,也会增强父母的身体健康和幸福感。然而,使用公共交通工具送孩子上学则会增加父母的时间压力,损害他们的身心健康。
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引用次数: 0
Market segmentation of an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxi commuting service in five large U.S. cities 美国五大城市电动垂直起降 (eVTOL) 空中出租车通勤服务的市场细分
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104267
Laurie A. Garrow , Patricia L. Mokhtarian , Brian J. German , John “Jack” S. Glodek , Caroline E. Leonard P.E.
Many companies are developing prototypes for novel electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft to serve as air taxis in cities. These eVTOL air taxis are envisioned as a new form of shared transportation that has the potential to reduce commuting times in urban areas with congested roadway networks. In this study, an attitudinal survey of high-income commuters in five U.S. cities was conducted to better understand the segmentation of the market for future eVTOL urban air taxis. Factor analysis of eVTOL perceptions identified two dimensions: Concern and Enthusiasm. Cluster analysis of the scores on these factors identified six meaningful segments, which differed on a variety of demographic, travel behavior, and attitudinal variables, as well as on participants’ inclination to adopt eVTOL travel. The study demonstrates how assessment of the sizes of the various air taxi market segments is affected by mean-centering the factor scores obtained from Likert-scale survey results; in particular, it finds that the conventional mean-centered factor scoring approach understates positive interest in eVTOL air taxis.
许多公司正在开发新型电动垂直起降(eVTOL)飞机的原型,以便在城市中充当空中出租车。这些 eVTOL 空中出租车被视为一种新型的共享交通工具,有可能缩短道路网络拥堵的城市地区的通勤时间。本研究对美国五个城市的高收入通勤者进行了态度调查,以更好地了解未来 eVTOL 城市空中出租车的市场细分。对 eVTOL 感知的因子分析确定了两个维度:关注和热情。对这些因素的得分进行聚类分析,确定了六个有意义的细分市场,这些细分市场在人口统计、出行行为、态度变量以及参与者采用 eVTOL 方式出行的倾向方面存在差异。该研究表明,以李克特量表调查结果为中心的因子得分会如何影响对不同空中出租车细分市场规模的评估;特别是,该研究发现,传统的以平均值为中心的因子得分法低估了人们对 eVTOL 空中出租车的积极兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Mobility-as-a-service and travel behaviour change: How multimodal bundles reshape our travel choices 移动即服务与出行行为改变:多式联运如何重塑我们的出行选择
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104310
Aitan M. Militão, Chinh Q. Ho, John D. Nelson
Mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) is an innovative framework aiming to promote sustainable mobility via altering users travel behaviour. Despite its potential, empirical evidence of MaaS effectiveness in achieving sustainable goals is scarce due to limited real-world trials and commercial offers of MaaS. This study leverages high-quality data from the Sydney MaaS trial and the Application of Programming Interface (API) to develop an original Error Components-Random Parameter Logit Model that describe the choices of transport modes under the “MaaS era”. Analysis results offer the first insight into how multimodal bundles reshape mode choices and the extent to which subscription bundles could be used as a powerful tool to nudge users towards more sustainable choices. The results show that multimodal bundles present an appealing alternative for the users and help them reduce their private car use. Simulations were conducted to provide guidance for designing multimodal bundles that are both attractive to users and friendly to the environment.
移动即服务(MaaS)是一种创新框架,旨在通过改变用户的出行行为来促进可持续移动性。尽管 MaaS 潜力巨大,但由于真实世界的试验和 MaaS 的商业化应用有限,因此有关 MaaS 在实现可持续目标方面有效性的实证证据并不多。本研究利用悉尼 MaaS 试验的高质量数据和编程接口应用(API),开发了一个独创的误差成分-随机参数 Logit 模型,用于描述 "MaaS 时代 "下的交通模式选择。分析结果首次揭示了多式联运捆绑包如何重塑交通方式选择,以及订阅捆绑包在多大程度上可用作促使用户做出更可持续选择的有力工具。研究结果表明,多式联运捆绑包为用户提供了一种有吸引力的选择,有助于他们减少私家车的使用。模拟实验为设计既对用户有吸引力又对环境友好的多式联运捆绑产品提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Cyclists’ heterogeneous parking preferences and their implications for bicycle parking facilities 骑车人的不同停车偏好及其对自行车停车设施的影响
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104298
David Kohlrautz, Tobias Kuhnimhof
Understanding bicycle parking behavior is essential when planning bicycle parking facilities. This is necessary in order to meet the needs of cyclists, to effectively promote cycling, and to prevent fly parking of bicycles. Therefore, this paper analyzes cyclists’ parking preferences regarding the type and placement of bicycle parking facilities. The study is based on a stated preference experiment (n = 2,960) on the bicycle parking choice behavior of university students and employees of RWTH Aachen University, one of the largest universities in Germany. The analysis employs a mixed logit model to estimate the influence of facility type and user-specific factors, the willingness to pay for parking facilities, and the relevance of cycling detours and walking distances. The results indicate that cyclists are more than twice as sensitive to walking distances than to cycling detours. Furthermore, they have a general preference for bicycle parking stations and covered versus uncovered parking racks, as well as a reluctance to use informal parking facilities. While previous research has shown that groups of cyclists have different preferences and parking behaviors, it has been unclear what factors influence group membership. This paper shows that student and employment status and the resale value of the bicycle are important user-specific factors influencing the choice between parking facilities. Furthermore, there is a notable willingness to pay for bicycle parking, especially among those with expensive bicycles. The considerable variation in preferences among cyclists underscores the importance of considering the heterogeneity of cyclists when planning parking facilities to optimize their utility.
在规划自行车停放设施时,了解自行车停放行为至关重要。这对于满足骑车人的需求、有效推广自行车运动以及防止自行车乱停乱放都是十分必要的。因此,本文分析了骑车人对自行车停放设施类型和位置的停放偏好。研究基于一项陈述偏好实验(n = 2,960),针对德国最大的大学之一亚琛工业大学的大学生和员工的自行车停放选择行为。分析采用混合对数模型来估计设施类型和用户特定因素的影响、为停车设施付费的意愿以及自行车绕行和步行距离的相关性。结果表明,骑车人对步行距离的敏感度是绕行距离的两倍多。此外,他们普遍偏好自行车停车站和有顶与无顶停车架,不愿意使用非正规停车设施。虽然以往的研究表明,骑自行车的群体具有不同的偏好和停车行为,但目前还不清楚是哪些因素影响了群体成员的组成。本文表明,学生和就业状况以及自行车的转售价值是影响用户在不同停车设施之间做出选择的重要因素。此外,为自行车停车付费的意愿也很明显,尤其是那些拥有昂贵自行车的人。自行车骑行者在偏好上的巨大差异强调了在规划停车设施时考虑自行车骑行者的异质性以优化其效用的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
How does COVID-19 pandemic affect airline’s route choice and market contact? − Full-service carriers vs. low-cost carriers in China COVID-19 大流行如何影响航空公司的航线选择和市场接触?- 中国的全服务航空公司与低成本航空公司
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104291
Xiangru Wu , Kun Wang , Xiaowen Fu , Kangyin Dong , Xiaoqian Sun , Tae Hoon Oum
We empirically examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on airlines’ route choices and market contact based on the Chinese domestic market over the period 2019–2022. An airline route choice model is estimated for both full-service carriers (FSCs) and Spring Airlines, China’s largest and most representative low-cost carriers (LCCs), which disentangles the “attenuating” and “persistent” effects of the pandemic on airlines’ route choices. The former effect refers to airlines exiting from extant routes in response to the sudden decline in air travel demand and strict pandemic controls, while the latter effect reflects airlines’ relatively long-term adjustment of their competition strategy triggered by the pandemic. Our empirical findings are as follows: The pandemic had a positive “persistent effect” and a negative “attenuating effect” on Spring Airlines. Spring Airlines has actively expanded its network to all types of routes, especially the dense routes connected to major airports. FSCs also adjusted their route entry strategy by entering more thin routes connected to secondary cities (i.e., a positive “persistent effect”). The pandemic has broken the equilibrium of network differentiation between FSCs and Spring Airlines in China. Spring Airlines has begun expanding services at FSCs’ major hub airports. FSCs have also tried to serve more lucrative niche routes that were previously monopolized by Spring Airlines. Overall, we observe more frequent market contact and increasing head-to-head competition between FSCs and Spring Airlines during the pandemic, when the overall traffic volume has rebounded to the pre-pandemic level. This is probably because of the airlines’ desperate need for cash flow amid financial difficulties, forcing them to intensify competition. This could have also been facilitated by more idle aircraft/airport slot capacities reallocated from the international market to the domestic market during the pandemic.
我们基于 2019-2022 年期间的中国国内市场,实证检验了 COVID-19 大流行病对航空公司航线选择和市场接触的影响。我们对中国最大、最具代表性的低成本航空公司(LCCs)--全服务航空公司(FSCs)和春秋航空公司(Spring Airlines)的航线选择模型进行了估计,从而区分了疫情对航空公司航线选择的 "衰减 "效应和 "持续 "效应。前者是指航空公司在航空旅行需求骤减和疫情严控的情况下退出原有航线,后者则反映了疫情引发的航空公司相对长期的竞争策略调整。我们的实证研究结果如下:大流行对春秋航空产生了积极的 "持续效应 "和消极的 "衰减效应"。春秋航空积极拓展各类航线网络,尤其是连接主要机场的密集航线。同时,FSC 也调整了航线进入策略,进入更多连接二级城市的稀疏航线(即正向 "持续效应")。疫情打破了中国的固定航班服务公司与春秋航空之间的网络分化平衡。春秋航空已开始扩大其主要枢纽机场的服务范围。固定航班服务公司还尝试为利润更丰厚的小众航线提供服务,而这些航线之前被春秋航空垄断。总体而言,我们观察到,在疫情期间,当整体运输量回升至疫情前水平时,固定翼飞机公司与春秋航空公司之间的市场接触更加频繁,正面竞争也日益加剧。这可能是因为航空公司在财政困难的情况下急需现金流,迫使它们加剧竞争。在大流行病期间,更多闲置飞机/机场航班时刻容量从国际市场重新分配到国内市场,也可能促进了这种情况。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing air traveler preferences for pay-per-weight pricing 评估航空旅客对按重量付费定价的偏好
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104302
Lorenzo Masiero , Judit Zoltan , Denis Tolkach , Stephen Pratt , Matias Thuen Jørgensen , Markus Schuckert , Kaye Chon
In efforts to reduce fuel consumption of air travel, the inclusion of passenger body weight in airline pricing is a relevant but contested opportunity. This study aims to investigate this issue from the economic perspective; by implementing a stated choice experiment to assess the stated preferences of consumers toward a set of predefined air passenger weight policies. Three policies are tested: “standard”, where price is defined irrespective of weight; “threshold body weight”, where an additional fee is required when exceeding a certain weight; and “unit body weight”, where passengers pay according to their body weight and receive a discount for reduced luggage size. In terms of respondents’ preferences for policies, service and price attributes were found to have significant importance, while environmental concerns related to pay-per-weight pricing received only marginal consideration. The results provide practical implications to airline companies regarding pricing policies and airline choice behavior.
为了减少航空旅行的燃料消耗,将乘客体重纳入航空公司定价是一个相关但有争议的机会。本研究旨在从经济学角度对这一问题进行研究;通过实施陈述选择实验,评估消费者对一组预定义的航空乘客体重政策的陈述偏好。实验测试了三种政策:"标准 "政策,即不考虑重量而确定价格;"临界体重 "政策,即超过一定重量时需要支付额外费用;以及 "单位体重 "政策,即乘客根据自己的体重付费,并在行李尺寸减少时获得折扣。就受访者对政策的偏好而言,服务和价格属性被认为具有重要意义,而与按重量付费定价相关的环境问题只得到了微不足道的考虑。研究结果为航空公司提供了定价政策和航空公司选择行为方面的实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
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