Pub Date : 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2026.110642
Chie Taguchi , Manabu Kuroki
This paper considers a situation where the cause–effect relationships among random variables are represented by a linear structural equation model and the corresponding directed acyclic graph. When the causal effect is not quantitatively identifiable, we propose two novel qualitative identification conditions for causal effects under bad controls.
{"title":"Qualitative identification conditions for causal effects under bad controls in linear structural equation models","authors":"Chie Taguchi , Manabu Kuroki","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110642","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110642","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper considers a situation where the cause–effect relationships among random variables are represented by a linear structural equation model and the corresponding directed acyclic graph. When the causal effect is not quantitatively identifiable, we propose two novel qualitative identification conditions for causal effects under bad controls.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 110642"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2026.110641
Thomas Royen
A probability inequality is proved for n-fold convolutions of a smooth cumulative distribution function on , which is multivariate totally positive of order 2 (MTP2). This inequality is sharper than an inequality of the same form as the Gaussian correlation inequality for distribution functions. An example are some multivariate chi-square distributions, derived from the diagonal of a Wishart matrix.
{"title":"A probability inequality for convolutions of MTP2-distribution functions","authors":"Thomas Royen","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A probability inequality is proved for n-fold convolutions of a smooth cumulative distribution function on <span><math><msubsup><mi>R</mi><mo>+</mo><mi>n</mi></msubsup></math></span>, which is multivariate totally positive of order 2 (MTP<sub>2</sub>). This inequality is sharper than an inequality of the same form as the Gaussian correlation inequality for distribution functions. An example are some multivariate chi-square distributions, derived from the diagonal of a Wishart matrix.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110641"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2026.110639
Bingjun Wang , Hongjun Gao , Mingxia Yuan
This paper investigates the exponential stabilization of stochastic systems driven by -Lévy processes via discrete-time feedback control. We design a control input in the drift term based on discrete-time state observations and prove that there exists an upper bound for the observation step size such that the controlled system achieves both mean square and quasi-sure exponential stability for any step size . An illustrative example validates the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.
{"title":"Exponential stabilization via discrete-time feedback control for stochastic systems driven by G-Lévy process","authors":"Bingjun Wang , Hongjun Gao , Mingxia Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the exponential stabilization of stochastic systems driven by <span><math><mi>G</mi></math></span>-Lévy processes via discrete-time feedback control. We design a control input in the drift term based on discrete-time state observations and prove that there exists an upper bound <span><math><mrow><mover><mrow><mi>τ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover><mo>></mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span> for the observation step size such that the controlled system achieves both mean square and quasi-sure exponential stability for any step size <span><math><mrow><mi>τ</mi><mo><</mo><mover><mrow><mi>τ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></mrow></math></span>. An illustrative example validates the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110639"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145928321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2026.110640
Nguyen Thi The
We investigate a class of stochastic differential algebraic equations with properly stated leading terms that are well-matched in a specific sense. We establish an existence and uniqueness theorem for this class and investigate the Lyapunov exponents in the linear case.
{"title":"Lyapunov exponents of linear stochastic differential algebraic equations with properly stated leading terms","authors":"Nguyen Thi The","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate a class of stochastic differential algebraic equations with properly stated leading terms that are well-matched in a specific sense. We establish an existence and uniqueness theorem for this class and investigate the Lyapunov exponents in the linear case.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110640"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145928320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2025.110634
Frank T. Seifried, Maximilian Würschmidt
We show existence of moments for Hölder coefficients up to a random time. Our result applies to general processes satisfying Kolmogorov’s tightness criterion and (unbounded) random times with a higher moment. The proof is based on a ramification of Kolmogorov’s classical dyadic numbers argument. We illustrate the result for diffusions and BSDEs on unbounded time horizons.
{"title":"Moments of Hölder coefficients on random time intervals","authors":"Frank T. Seifried, Maximilian Würschmidt","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show existence of moments for Hölder coefficients up to a random time. Our result applies to general processes satisfying Kolmogorov’s tightness criterion and (unbounded) random times with a higher moment. The proof is based on a ramification of Kolmogorov’s classical dyadic numbers argument. We illustrate the result for diffusions and BSDEs on unbounded time horizons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110634"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2026.110637
Dung T. Nguyen
This paper studies the asymptotic stability of delayed stochastic differential equations. Using the fixed point theorem and estimates for stochastic integrals, sufficient conditions for asymptotic convergence are derived. The results provide refinements of existing criteria while preserving a form that is convenient for verification. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate the obtained results.
{"title":"New sufficient conditions for asymptotic stability in delayed stochastic differential equations","authors":"Dung T. Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the asymptotic stability of delayed stochastic differential equations. Using the fixed point theorem and estimates for stochastic integrals, sufficient conditions for asymptotic convergence are derived. The results provide refinements of existing criteria while preserving a form that is convenient for verification. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate the obtained results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110637"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2026.110638
İlker Arslan , Ümi̇t Işlak
Various relations for comparison of intervals of real numbers are introduced, and the expected length of the corresponding longest increasing subsequence is analyzed. When intervals are randomly generated by taking the minimum and maximum of two independent uniform random variables, we prove that the expected length of the longest increasing subsequence grows on the order of . We also investigate the asymptotic behavior of the expected length under alternative comparison relations and random interval models. Discussions on other subsequence problems for interval sequences are included.
{"title":"Increasing and other subsequence problems for random interval sequences","authors":"İlker Arslan , Ümi̇t Işlak","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110638","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2026.110638","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Various relations for comparison of intervals of real numbers are introduced, and the expected length of the corresponding longest increasing subsequence is analyzed. When intervals are randomly generated by taking the minimum and maximum of two independent uniform random variables, we prove that the expected length of the longest increasing subsequence grows on the order of <span><math><mroot><mrow><mi>n</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></mroot></math></span>. We also investigate the asymptotic behavior of the expected length under alternative comparison relations and random interval models. Discussions on other subsequence problems for interval sequences are included.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110638"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145928319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2025.110633
Zan Yu
We develop a collocation framework for computing the Gerber–Shiu function in Sparre Andersen risk models. By discretizing it on collocation grids, the problem reduces to a well-conditioned linear algebraic system that is easy to implement. The method accommodates general claim-size distributions and requires only mild smoothness conditions. We derive convergence rates for the collocation solution and identify settings that yield higher-order accuracy. Numerical experiments across a variety of distributions and penalty functions confirm the approach’s accuracy, efficiency, and robustness.
{"title":"Calculating the Gerber–Shiu function for Sparre Andersen process via collocation method","authors":"Zan Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a collocation framework for computing the Gerber–Shiu function in Sparre Andersen risk models. By discretizing it on collocation grids, the problem reduces to a well-conditioned linear algebraic system that is easy to implement. The method accommodates general claim-size distributions and requires only mild smoothness conditions. We derive convergence rates for the collocation solution and identify settings that yield higher-order accuracy. Numerical experiments across a variety of distributions and penalty functions confirm the approach’s accuracy, efficiency, and robustness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110633"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145928322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2025.110635
Raphael Alves , Rafael A. Rosales
Suppose an urn contains initially any number of balls of two colours. One ball is drawn randomly and then put back with balls of the same colour and balls of the opposite colour. Both cases, and are well known and correspond respectively to Pólya’s and Friedman’s replacement schemes. We consider a mixture of both of these: with probability balls are replaced according to Friedman’s recipe and with probability according to the one by Pólya. Independently of the initial urn composition and independently of , , and the value of , we show that the proportion of balls of one colour converges almost surely to . The latter is the limit behaviour obtained by using Friedman’s scheme alone, i.e. when . Our result follows by adapting an argument due to D. S. Ornstein.
{"title":"Friedman vs Pólya","authors":"Raphael Alves , Rafael A. Rosales","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Suppose an urn contains initially any number of balls of two colours. One ball is drawn randomly and then put back with <span><math><mi>α</mi></math></span> balls of the same colour and <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span> balls of the opposite colour. Both cases, <span><math><mrow><mi>β</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><mi>β</mi><mo>></mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span> are well known and correspond respectively to Pólya’s and Friedman’s replacement schemes. We consider a mixture of both of these: with probability <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>∈</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>]</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> balls are replaced according to Friedman’s recipe and with probability <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>−</mo><mi>p</mi></mrow></math></span> according to the one by Pólya. Independently of the initial urn composition and independently of <span><math><mi>α</mi></math></span>, <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>, and the value of <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>></mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span>, we show that the proportion of balls of one colour converges almost surely to <span><math><mfrac><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></mfrac></math></span>. The latter is the limit behaviour obtained by using Friedman’s scheme alone, i.e. when <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>. Our result follows by adapting an argument due to D. S. Ornstein.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 110635"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2025.110636
Yinmeng Chen , Xiaoyu Xia , Litan Yan
Let be a standard Brownian motion. This paper establishes the asymptotic normality of renormalized Hermite integrals where with , and denotes the classical Hermite polynomial of order . We prove that as , in distribution. This result quantifies the Gaussian limit behavior of divergent Hermite integrals through renormalization.
{"title":"Central limit theorems for divergent higher-order Hermite integrals of Brownian motion","authors":"Yinmeng Chen , Xiaoyu Xia , Litan Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Let <span><math><mrow><mi>B</mi><mo>=</mo><mrow><mo>{</mo><msub><mrow><mi>B</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>≥</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>}</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> be a standard Brownian motion. This paper establishes the asymptotic normality of renormalized Hermite integrals <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>Υ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>m</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>≔</mo><msup><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>m</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup><msubsup><mrow><mo>∫</mo></mrow><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msubsup><mfrac><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>H</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn><mi>m</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>B</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub><mo>,</mo><mi>s</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn><mi>m</mi></mrow></msup></mrow></mfrac><mi>d</mi><mi>s</mi><mo>,</mo><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mo>∈</mo><mrow><mo>{</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>3</mn><mo>,</mo><mo>…</mo><mo>}</mo></mrow><mo>,</mo></mrow></math></span> where <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>H</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn><mi>m</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>x</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>y</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>=</mo><msup><mrow><mi>y</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow></msup><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn><mi>m</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>x</mi><mo>/</mo><msqrt><mrow><mi>y</mi></mrow></msqrt><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> with <span><math><mrow><mi>y</mi><mo>></mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span>, and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> denotes the classical Hermite polynomial of order <span><math><mi>m</mi></math></span>. We prove that as <span><math><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi><mo>→</mo><msup><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>, <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>Υ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>m</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>⟶</mo><mi>N</mi><mfenced><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><msubsup><mrow><mi>σ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msubsup></mrow></mfenced><mo>,</mo><mspace></mspace><msubsup><mrow><mi>σ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msubsup><mo>=</mo><mfrac><mrow><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>2</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>!</mo></mrow><mrow><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>2</mn><mi>m</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>)</mo></mrow><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>m</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></mfrac><mo>,</mo></mrow></math></span> in distribution. This result quantifies the Gaussian limit behavior of divergent Hermite integrals through renormalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 110636"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}