Filipe Pais, João Monteiro, Nuno Sousa, J. Coutinho-Rodrigues, Eduardo Natividade-Jesus
The importance of cycling as a sustainable mode has been widely recognized and, recently, its effectiveness in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases has also been under the spotlight. Fostering its use requires developing and deploying decision tools to help authorities assess the performance of their cycle infrastructure for maintenance and improvements. This article presents a multicriteria methodology based on engineering best practices and uses the ELECTRE TRI method to assign segments of the cycling network to predefined performance classes, with an aim at maintenance planning. The approach is demonstrated with a case study, which also proves scalability of the method’s data collection procedure. Case study results show that lack of safety and inadequate intersections are the main problems. These stem mostly from non-existent segregation between motorized traffic and cyclists, both along the segments and at intersections. This is typical of cities which, over the years, have prioritized motorized transportation.
{"title":"A multicriteria methodology for maintenance planning of cycling infrastructure","authors":"Filipe Pais, João Monteiro, Nuno Sousa, J. Coutinho-Rodrigues, Eduardo Natividade-Jesus","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00088","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of cycling as a sustainable mode has been widely recognized and, recently, its effectiveness in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases has also been under the spotlight. Fostering its use requires developing and deploying decision tools to help authorities assess the performance of their cycle infrastructure for maintenance and improvements. This article presents a multicriteria methodology based on engineering best practices and uses the ELECTRE TRI method to assign segments of the cycling network to predefined performance classes, with an aim at maintenance planning. The approach is demonstrated with a case study, which also proves scalability of the method’s data collection procedure. Case study results show that lack of safety and inadequate intersections are the main problems. These stem mostly from non-existent segregation between motorized traffic and cyclists, both along the segments and at intersections. This is typical of cities which, over the years, have prioritized motorized transportation.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72792541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Infrastructure projects have a duty and obligation to create social value that is broader than the core benefits achieved through construction of the asset. It has been recognised that in the procurement and construction of the asset, social value opportunities should be created that respond to the needs of the project location. However, measuring social value for large infrastructure projects is challenging because of the sheer number of changes in different areas of society as a result of the project. Many of these changes go unrecorded by the organisation in charge of the infrastructure project or anyone else in society. Furthermore, social value measurement studies are often commissioned when the project is already well underway or even completed, which can mean that mechanisms to properly collect the required input data to quantify and value social impact was not set up, and by that point it is usually too late to do so. This paper outlines best practice methodology in creating a framework to achieve social value, using Tideway, the company delivering the Thames Tideway Tunnel project in London, UK, as a case study to share lessons learnt from their approach to social value creation.
{"title":"Creating long term social value on major infrastructure projects: a case study","authors":"Samantha Freelove, Iulian Gramațki","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00082","url":null,"abstract":"Infrastructure projects have a duty and obligation to create social value that is broader than the core benefits achieved through construction of the asset. It has been recognised that in the procurement and construction of the asset, social value opportunities should be created that respond to the needs of the project location. However, measuring social value for large infrastructure projects is challenging because of the sheer number of changes in different areas of society as a result of the project. Many of these changes go unrecorded by the organisation in charge of the infrastructure project or anyone else in society. Furthermore, social value measurement studies are often commissioned when the project is already well underway or even completed, which can mean that mechanisms to properly collect the required input data to quantify and value social impact was not set up, and by that point it is usually too late to do so. This paper outlines best practice methodology in creating a framework to achieve social value, using Tideway, the company delivering the Thames Tideway Tunnel project in London, UK, as a case study to share lessons learnt from their approach to social value creation.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"176 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72903056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Geotechnical constructions involve consumption of vast amount of nonrenewable natural resources, and energy- and carbon-intensive materials (e.g., cement and steel) that contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. This paper uses drilled shaft as an example to illustrate the importance of environmental impact assessment in the design phase of foundations. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to quantify the environmental impacts of construction of single drilled shafts and groups embedded in sandy soil profiles. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of soil properties, design parameters, and hauling distances of construction materials and equipment on the environmental impacts of single drilled shafts. For pile groups, different configurations, applied load, center-to-center spacing, and thickness of pile cap are considered in the parametric study. The global warming impact and human toxicity of a typical drilled shaft is found to be 39% and 486% of annual world impact per person, respectively. Based on the study, charts and tables are developed that may be used for quick estimation of global warming impact of drilled shafts without the use of specialised LCA software programs.
{"title":"Environmental impacts of drilled shafts in sand","authors":"Mina Lee, D. Basu","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00091","url":null,"abstract":"Geotechnical constructions involve consumption of vast amount of nonrenewable natural resources, and energy- and carbon-intensive materials (e.g., cement and steel) that contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. This paper uses drilled shaft as an example to illustrate the importance of environmental impact assessment in the design phase of foundations. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to quantify the environmental impacts of construction of single drilled shafts and groups embedded in sandy soil profiles. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of soil properties, design parameters, and hauling distances of construction materials and equipment on the environmental impacts of single drilled shafts. For pile groups, different configurations, applied load, center-to-center spacing, and thickness of pile cap are considered in the parametric study. The global warming impact and human toxicity of a typical drilled shaft is found to be 39% and 486% of annual world impact per person, respectively. Based on the study, charts and tables are developed that may be used for quick estimation of global warming impact of drilled shafts without the use of specialised LCA software programs.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"195 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88154847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ravijanya Chippagiri, A. Brás, Rahul V Ralegaonkar
Utilisation of unused industrial wastes and need for rapid volumetric construction led to the evolution of sustainable prefabricated housing elements, particularly for urban slums. An agro-industrial by-product as raw material and waste expanded polystyrene beads as the insulation material are chosen to develop a lightweight prefabricated construction element. This bio-ash is used as a partial replacement, 20% and 10% for the fine aggregates to prepare concrete and lightweight mix respectively. A small-scale model of one-third scale is conceptualised as per standards that include precast columns and beams as framed structure, and prefab panels as walling and roofing elements. These elements are developed as per the desired mix proportions of the identified raw materials. The respective laboratory specimens are evaluated for the physico-mechanical, durability, and thermal properties. The developed walling end-product is found to be 27% lighter, 8% stronger, 24% less water-absorbent, and 62% less conductive when compared with the properties of commercially available fly-ash brick. A solar photovoltaic panel is embedded into the model’s pitch roof that accommodates 71% of its generated energy to necessary electrical appliances. The material properties are found to be satisfactory for its on-site application and its final erection being 20% faster than conventional method.
{"title":"Development of sustainable prefabricated housing system by small-scale experimental model","authors":"Ravijanya Chippagiri, A. Brás, Rahul V Ralegaonkar","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00071","url":null,"abstract":"Utilisation of unused industrial wastes and need for rapid volumetric construction led to the evolution of sustainable prefabricated housing elements, particularly for urban slums. An agro-industrial by-product as raw material and waste expanded polystyrene beads as the insulation material are chosen to develop a lightweight prefabricated construction element. This bio-ash is used as a partial replacement, 20% and 10% for the fine aggregates to prepare concrete and lightweight mix respectively. A small-scale model of one-third scale is conceptualised as per standards that include precast columns and beams as framed structure, and prefab panels as walling and roofing elements. These elements are developed as per the desired mix proportions of the identified raw materials. The respective laboratory specimens are evaluated for the physico-mechanical, durability, and thermal properties. The developed walling end-product is found to be 27% lighter, 8% stronger, 24% less water-absorbent, and 62% less conductive when compared with the properties of commercially available fly-ash brick. A solar photovoltaic panel is embedded into the model’s pitch roof that accommodates 71% of its generated energy to necessary electrical appliances. The material properties are found to be satisfactory for its on-site application and its final erection being 20% faster than conventional method.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91129107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
María Elena Araneda, M. Pradena, Rodrigo Silva, Marcos Pardo
Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) is a waste generated by removing asphalt material from a pavement. If the RAP is not recycled, the pavement will require new asphalt layers, typically formed by virgin materials (bitumen and aggregates). One way to recycle RAP, is by applying the cold asphalt technique with bitumen emulsion as an additive, which potentially has environmental benefits. This technique can be a cost-effective alternative for low-volume road (LVR) networks which connect to main asphalt paved roads. The objective of this research is to analyse the alternative of paving with RAP using cold bitumen emulsion as a binder. This pavement structure was compared with a traditional hot mix asphalt pavement as alternative for LVRs. The environmental impact analysis, through a streamlined Life Cycle Analysis, showed that the cold recycled alternative typically generates 50% less impact than a traditional pavement. In terms of global warming the hot mix asphalt pavement generates three times more emissions than the cold recycled alternative. The most important factors in these differences are the in-situ construction technique of the RAP alternative and, as is the case in Chile, the long distances to a hot mix asphalt plant.
{"title":"Sustainable paving alternative for low-volume roads using cold recycled asphalt","authors":"María Elena Araneda, M. Pradena, Rodrigo Silva, Marcos Pardo","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00036","url":null,"abstract":"Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) is a waste generated by removing asphalt material from a pavement. If the RAP is not recycled, the pavement will require new asphalt layers, typically formed by virgin materials (bitumen and aggregates). One way to recycle RAP, is by applying the cold asphalt technique with bitumen emulsion as an additive, which potentially has environmental benefits. This technique can be a cost-effective alternative for low-volume road (LVR) networks which connect to main asphalt paved roads. The objective of this research is to analyse the alternative of paving with RAP using cold bitumen emulsion as a binder. This pavement structure was compared with a traditional hot mix asphalt pavement as alternative for LVRs. The environmental impact analysis, through a streamlined Life Cycle Analysis, showed that the cold recycled alternative typically generates 50% less impact than a traditional pavement. In terms of global warming the hot mix asphalt pavement generates three times more emissions than the cold recycled alternative. The most important factors in these differences are the in-situ construction technique of the RAP alternative and, as is the case in Chile, the long distances to a hot mix asphalt plant.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90586625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper compares the carbon dioxide emissions of constructing flood protection schemes to the emissions saved by providing flood defences. There is considerable information available on the carbon dioxide ‘cost’ of construction, but less on repairing flooded properties. Drawing on existing research into flooding, this paper identifies a carbon dioxide cost of repairs of 6 tCO2e per property flooded, and uses this to provide a method to determine emissions benefit for constructing flood protection schemes. While emissions reduction should be the first priority, flood defences defend against future emissions. Using Stonehaven in the UK as a case study, this paper demonstrates that the carbon dioxide cost of constructing a flood protection scheme can be less than the carbon dioxide cost of undertaking repairs following flooding over the life of a scheme, with a benefit ratio of 2 identified for the case study scheme. The paper concludes with a review of the UK government appraisal process, and cautions that the carbon dioxide cost produced by a flood protection scheme may not differentiate an option when compared to capital cost. It is considered that an independent assessment should be undertaken to demonstrate a net zero emissions option is selected.
{"title":"Net zero carbon dioxide emissions in flood defence schemes","authors":"Laurence D. Cload","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00099","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the carbon dioxide emissions of constructing flood protection schemes to the emissions saved by providing flood defences. There is considerable information available on the carbon dioxide ‘cost’ of construction, but less on repairing flooded properties. Drawing on existing research into flooding, this paper identifies a carbon dioxide cost of repairs of 6 tCO2e per property flooded, and uses this to provide a method to determine emissions benefit for constructing flood protection schemes. While emissions reduction should be the first priority, flood defences defend against future emissions. Using Stonehaven in the UK as a case study, this paper demonstrates that the carbon dioxide cost of constructing a flood protection scheme can be less than the carbon dioxide cost of undertaking repairs following flooding over the life of a scheme, with a benefit ratio of 2 identified for the case study scheme. The paper concludes with a review of the UK government appraisal process, and cautions that the carbon dioxide cost produced by a flood protection scheme may not differentiate an option when compared to capital cost. It is considered that an independent assessment should be undertaken to demonstrate a net zero emissions option is selected.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84826726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research examines the uncertainty events encountered in the process of constructing highways and evaluates their impact on South African highway construction costs. The rationale for this examination stems from the scholarly view that the costs of highway construction projects are underestimated due to the lack of appropriate evaluation of the impact of uncertainty events encountered in the construction process of highway projects. To counteract such underestimation, this research has developed an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as a simple advanced machine learning technique to assess the impact of uncertainty events involved in the construction of linear infrastructure projects. To validate the ANFIS model, the Stepwise Regression models (SRA) and Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) have been designed, and their results are compared with the outputs of the ANFIS. The prediction performance comparison proved that the ANFIS has a higher performance than SRA and FBN with an accuracy degree of 99.15%, the margin of the error of 0.85% and excellent fitness (∼1) of the prediction model. Based on the result of the study, it can be deduced that the ANFIS model is a more accurate and reliable technique in assessing the impact of uncertainty events on the cost of the construction projects compared to the statistical and probabilistic models. Therefore, the study concludes that using hybrid intelligent machine learning techniques such as ANFIS not only minimises the time and difficulty of the estimation process but also reduces the potential inconsistency of correlation between variables in construction cost prediction. The model developed enables cost engineers to estimate the construction cost with a higher degree of accuracy.
{"title":"Evaluating the impact of uncertainty events on the cost of highway construction project using Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System","authors":"A. Moghayedi","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00061","url":null,"abstract":"This research examines the uncertainty events encountered in the process of constructing highways and evaluates their impact on South African highway construction costs. The rationale for this examination stems from the scholarly view that the costs of highway construction projects are underestimated due to the lack of appropriate evaluation of the impact of uncertainty events encountered in the construction process of highway projects. To counteract such underestimation, this research has developed an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as a simple advanced machine learning technique to assess the impact of uncertainty events involved in the construction of linear infrastructure projects. To validate the ANFIS model, the Stepwise Regression models (SRA) and Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) have been designed, and their results are compared with the outputs of the ANFIS. The prediction performance comparison proved that the ANFIS has a higher performance than SRA and FBN with an accuracy degree of 99.15%, the margin of the error of 0.85% and excellent fitness (∼1) of the prediction model. Based on the result of the study, it can be deduced that the ANFIS model is a more accurate and reliable technique in assessing the impact of uncertainty events on the cost of the construction projects compared to the statistical and probabilistic models. Therefore, the study concludes that using hybrid intelligent machine learning techniques such as ANFIS not only minimises the time and difficulty of the estimation process but also reduces the potential inconsistency of correlation between variables in construction cost prediction. The model developed enables cost engineers to estimate the construction cost with a higher degree of accuracy.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73469937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A growing body of research is examining how Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are offering planners, politicians and engineers options to promote respond to a wide range of biophysical and socio-economic problems. However, despite the increasing popularity of NBS, there is limited analysis available on how these ‘solutions’ align with urban problems, at what scale they are most effective, and what costs are associated with investment in urban nature. This paper analyses current approaches to urban sustainability via an examination of the EU Funded Horizon 2020- funded project, URBAN GreenUP, in Liverpool (UK) to deconstruct how rhetoric translates to practical applications of NBS interventions. It interrogates the interactions of projects, policies and political buy-in for NBS, and argues that an integrated understanding of scale, function, and location is needed to successfully address issues of urban climate change vulnerability. This is contextualised against the wider discussions of NBS associated with other EU-funded projects. It concludes that although investment in NBS offer a useful approach to development, they cannot overcome existing barriers to investment in environmental improvements without attention to the same barriers that have always existed. Moreover, the paper argues that the promotion of NBS as solutions to problems is only effective when the problems are transparently and collaboratively defined.
{"title":"Engineering Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) – examining the barriers to effective intervention","authors":"Ian Mell, S. Clement, Fearghus O’Sullivan","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00033","url":null,"abstract":"A growing body of research is examining how Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are offering planners, politicians and engineers options to promote respond to a wide range of biophysical and socio-economic problems. However, despite the increasing popularity of NBS, there is limited analysis available on how these ‘solutions’ align with urban problems, at what scale they are most effective, and what costs are associated with investment in urban nature. This paper analyses current approaches to urban sustainability via an examination of the EU Funded Horizon 2020- funded project, URBAN GreenUP, in Liverpool (UK) to deconstruct how rhetoric translates to practical applications of NBS interventions. It interrogates the interactions of projects, policies and political buy-in for NBS, and argues that an integrated understanding of scale, function, and location is needed to successfully address issues of urban climate change vulnerability. This is contextualised against the wider discussions of NBS associated with other EU-funded projects. It concludes that although investment in NBS offer a useful approach to development, they cannot overcome existing barriers to investment in environmental improvements without attention to the same barriers that have always existed. Moreover, the paper argues that the promotion of NBS as solutions to problems is only effective when the problems are transparently and collaboratively defined.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"304 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76267808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The importance of accurate energy demand modeling has increased to support the decision-making of policy makers for ensuring a safe energy supply. However, forecasting energy demand has several difficulties due to the complexity in the supply line, demand increase, nonlinearity of data and volatility of energy usage. In this study, an improved Grey Verhulst model with the Constant Term (GVMCT), which is based on the Grey model, is introduced for improving the accuracy of energy demand prediction models. Within this context, total residential electricity demand of the U.S. and Turkey are modeled via linear and quadratic trend models as well as 3 grey models, including the proposed GVMCT model. The effectiveness of the models is assessed based on the Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, and Root-Mean Square Error. The results show that linear trend is the best performing model with a MAE of 34564.81844 for the U.S. data whereas the proposed GVMCT with a MAE of 4130.086917 outperforms all models for the data of Turkey.
{"title":"Improved Grey Verhulst model with the constant term and its application to forecast energy demand","authors":"Sevcan Demir Atalay, G. Calis, M. Adiyaman","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00085","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of accurate energy demand modeling has increased to support the decision-making of policy makers for ensuring a safe energy supply. However, forecasting energy demand has several difficulties due to the complexity in the supply line, demand increase, nonlinearity of data and volatility of energy usage. In this study, an improved Grey Verhulst model with the Constant Term (GVMCT), which is based on the Grey model, is introduced for improving the accuracy of energy demand prediction models. Within this context, total residential electricity demand of the U.S. and Turkey are modeled via linear and quadratic trend models as well as 3 grey models, including the proposed GVMCT model. The effectiveness of the models is assessed based on the Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, and Root-Mean Square Error. The results show that linear trend is the best performing model with a MAE of 34564.81844 for the U.S. data whereas the proposed GVMCT with a MAE of 4130.086917 outperforms all models for the data of Turkey.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82364949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sustainable tourism has become a global concern in recent years. An approach is proposed to evaluate the sustainability of hotels and to compare their real actions and promotions. Following a study of relevant literature, a set of criteria so-called ‘green hotels’ were proposed. Multi-criteria decision-making methods were then used, including the best-worst method to calculate the weights of all criteria, and the fuzzy technique-for-order-of-preference-by-similarity-to-ideal-solution method was then implemented to rank sustainability performance. The proposed model was applied to evaluate five hotels in Vietnam. The results showed that the criterion named ‘green policy and regulation’ played the most significant role in the sustainability practice of hotels. Sensitivity analysis was also applied to validate the research framework and eliminate the effects of bias. The proposed model is recommended for use in various other fields.
{"title":"Evaluating the sustainability of hotels using multi-criteria decision-making methods","authors":"Chia-Nan Wang, H. Nguyen","doi":"10.1680/jensu.21.00084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00084","url":null,"abstract":"Sustainable tourism has become a global concern in recent years. An approach is proposed to evaluate the sustainability of hotels and to compare their real actions and promotions. Following a study of relevant literature, a set of criteria so-called ‘green hotels’ were proposed. Multi-criteria decision-making methods were then used, including the best-worst method to calculate the weights of all criteria, and the fuzzy technique-for-order-of-preference-by-similarity-to-ideal-solution method was then implemented to rank sustainability performance. The proposed model was applied to evaluate five hotels in Vietnam. The results showed that the criterion named ‘green policy and regulation’ played the most significant role in the sustainability practice of hotels. Sensitivity analysis was also applied to validate the research framework and eliminate the effects of bias. The proposed model is recommended for use in various other fields.","PeriodicalId":49671,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82898457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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