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Potential economic impacts of groundwater conservation in the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer (MRAA), Louisiana, USA 美国路易斯安那州密西西比河冲积含水层(MRAA)地下水保护的潜在经济影响
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12330
D. Bhatta, K. Paudel, Bin Li
Overextraction of groundwater reduces groundwater height, increases the energy cost, and may threaten an aquifer's economic life. Water‐intensive crops, corn, and soybean, dominate the agricultural land in the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer (MRAA) region of the United States, thus stressing this confined aquifer. Groundwater conservation policy or the adoption of efficient irrigation technology could save both water and energy. This study aims to estimate the future returns from the irrigated land under the scenarios of 30%, 20%, 10%, 5%, and no groundwater conservation from 2020 to 2022. An accurate model to predict the crop choice decision is important to estimate the impact of groundwater policies. We develop a crop choice model where an individual farmer has a crop planting or land fallowing choice each year. We use the random forest, boosted regression trees, and support vector machine for the crop choice prediction. Boosted regression trees perform the best in our classification problem with 75.5% out of sample accuracy. The prediction model shows that the numbers of corn growers increase in the future. Our results show that the profit of 2572 farmers increased cumulatively by 0.14% when they conserve groundwater by 30% for 3 years. From a policy perspective, providing financial and technical assistant to farmers for making investments to conserve groundwater could save energy costs and sustain the economic life of the MRAA.
地下水的过度开采降低了地下水位,增加了能源成本,并可能威胁到含水层的经济寿命。在美国密西西比河冲积含水层(MRAA)地区,玉米和大豆等水密集型作物占据了农业用地,因此对这一承压含水层造成了压力。地下水保护政策或采用高效灌溉技术可以节约水和能源。本研究旨在估算2020 - 2022年30%、20%、10%、5%和不涵养地下水情景下的未来灌溉土地收益。一个准确的预测作物选择决策的模型对于估计地下水政策的影响是非常重要的。我们开发了一种作物选择模型,每个农民每年都可以选择种植作物或休耕。我们使用随机森林、增强回归树和支持向量机进行作物选择预测。增强回归树在我们的分类问题中表现最好,样本外准确率为75.5%。预测模型表明,未来玉米种植者的数量将会增加。结果表明,在连续3年节约地下水30%的情况下,2572户农户的利润累计增长0.14%。从政策的角度来看,向农民提供资金和技术援助,帮助他们投资保护地下水,可以节省能源成本,维持MRAA的经济生命。
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引用次数: 2
Correlation and synergy analysis of urban economy–energy–environment system—A case study of Beijing 城市经济-能源-环境系统的关联与协同分析——以北京市为例
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12329
Xianzhong Mu, L. Kong, Chuang Tu, Jian Chen, Guangwen Hu
The coordination of economy, energy, and environment plays an important role for cities seeking green transformation and sustainable development. However, poor information and equivocal data are what often face the related analysis. In this paper, the correlation and synergy of the urban economy–energy–environment system are analyzed. First, the Grey relational analysis and entropy weight method are combined and introduced to analyze the correlation degree in the indicator level and the subsystem level of the 3E system. Then, the concepts of ordinal parameter and comprehensive correlation degree are introduced, to evaluate the ordering degree of subsystems and the synergy degree of compound systems. Finally, the data of Beijing from 2008 to 2017 are used for empirical study. Results suggest that a fluctuating tendency of low synergy or none synergy is observed in the Beijing 3E system. Furthermore, the improvement of the energy subsystem displays dominant effects on the coordinated development of compound systems, and the technological innovation and structural optimization in industries could help to improve the Beijing economy–energy–environment system.
经济、能源和环境的协调是城市实现绿色转型和可持续发展的重要途径。然而,相关分析往往面临信息贫乏和数据模棱两可的问题。本文分析了城市经济-能源-环境系统的关联性和协同性。首先,将灰色关联分析法和熵权法相结合,分析了3E系统在指标层和子系统层的关联度。然后,引入有序参数和综合关联度的概念,评价复合系统的有序度和协同度。最后,利用北京市2008 - 2017年的数据进行实证研究。结果表明,北京3E系统存在低协同或无协同的波动趋势。能源子系统的提升对复合系统的协调发展具有主导作用,产业的技术创新和结构优化有助于改善北京经济-能源-环境系统。
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引用次数: 8
Forestland transfer between rural households in Jiangxi, China: Differentiated effects of actual and perceived tenure security 江西农户林地流转:实际和感知权属保障的差异效应
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-12 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12327
Xiaojing Liu, Longjunjiang Huang, Juan Du, Fangting Xie, Shubin Zhu
This study analyzes the potentially differentiated impacts of actual and perceived tenure security on rural households' forestland transfer behavior. Logit and Tobit models were estimated using repeated survey data from 505 households in 50 villages of Jiangxi Province during 2017–2018. The results show that there is a great difference in the influence of actual and perceived tenure security on the transfer behavior. Issuing forest tenure certificates promotes the renting out of forestland by households but has no significant effect on forestland renting in. Meanwhile, perceived tenure security has a significant effect on forestland transfer behavior. Households' understanding and evaluation of the existing tenure policy also has a significantly positive impact on household's rent‐out behavior. Further, the logging quota system has a significantly negative effect on household's renting in and out behavior. Our analysis suggests that the government should strive to improve the awareness of rural families regarding forest tenure policy and that the logging quota should be modified to incentivize farmers' active participation in forest management.
本研究分析了实际保有权保障和感知保有权保障对农户林地流转行为的潜在差异影响。使用2017-2018年江西省50个村庄505户家庭的重复调查数据估计Logit和Tobit模型。研究结果表明,实际聘用保障和感知聘用保障对员工转移行为的影响存在较大差异。发放林权证书促进了农户出借林地,但对农户出借林地的影响不显著。同时,权属安全感感知对林地流转行为有显著影响。住户对现有租住政策的理解和评价对住户的出租行为也有显著的正向影响。此外,采伐配额制度对家庭的租入租出行为有显著的负向影响。我们的分析表明,政府应努力提高农村家庭对林权政策的认识,并应修改采伐配额,以激励农民积极参与森林经营。
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引用次数: 4
Can global aquaculture growth help to conserve wild fish stocks? Theory and empirical analysis 全球水产养殖的增长是否有助于保护野生鱼类种群?理论与实证分析
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12323
C. Bogmans, D. Soest
Can fed aquaculture growth alleviate overfishing and foster the conservation of wild fish stocks? To examine this question we present a stylized fishery model of trade in edible fish and fishmeal that incorporates both market linkages and biological (predator–prey) linkages between the aquaculture sector and capture fisheries. We study the effects of local aquaculture growth, as induced by an increase in aquaculture feed‐efficiency (technology shock), and of external or global aquaculture growth as experienced by either a drop in the price of edible fish or as an increase in the price of fishmeal (price shocks). While domestic (or “local”) aquaculture growth increases wild fish stocks due to positive market interactions, the effects of external (or “global”) aquaculture growth are generally ambiguous and depend on the strength of biological linkages. A stylized empirical application of the cod (predator) and capelin (prey) fisheries in the Barents Sea illustrates that the biological linkages between cod and capelin reduce the positive impact of aquaculture on cod conservation roughly by 50%.
水产养殖的增长能否缓解过度捕捞,促进野生鱼类种群的保护?为了研究这个问题,我们提出了一个可食用鱼类和鱼粉贸易的程式化渔业模型,该模型结合了水产养殖部门和捕捞渔业之间的市场联系和生物(捕食者-猎物)联系。我们研究了当地水产养殖增长的影响,如水产养殖饲料效率的提高(技术冲击),以及外部或全球水产养殖增长对食用鱼价格下降或鱼粉价格上涨的影响(价格冲击)。虽然国内(或“本地”)水产养殖的增长由于积极的市场互动而增加了野生鱼类种群,但外部(或“全球”)水产养殖业增长的影响通常是模糊的,取决于生物联系的强度。巴伦支海鳕鱼(捕食者)和刺山柑(猎物)渔业的程式化经验应用表明,鳕鱼和刺山槟榔之间的生物联系将水产养殖对鳕鱼保护的积极影响降低了约50%。
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引用次数: 1
Cannibalism and synchrony in seabird egg‐laying behavior 海鸟产卵行为的食人性和同步性
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12325
Yosia I. Nurhan, S. Henson
During years of high sea surface temperature, food resources for glaucous‐winged gulls (Larus glaucescens) are scarce. In response, male gulls cannibalize the eggs of neighbors. When this occurs, female gulls in dense areas of the colony adopt a tactic of egg‐laying synchrony, in which they lay eggs synchronously on an every‐other‐day schedule. Field observations show that the first‐laid egg of each clutch is the most likely to be cannibalized. In this paper, we analyzed a discrete‐time model of egg‐laying behavior that tracks egg order in the nest. Using Jury conditions, we found that the equilibrium destabilizes into a two‐cycle as colony density (nests per unit area) increases through a critical value, and that the two‐cycle becomes increasingly synchronous as density increases further. We demonstrated that more eggs survive cannibalism in synchronous colonies than in nonsynchronous colonies.
在海面温度高的年份,白翅鸥(Larus glaucescens)的食物资源非常稀缺。作为回应,雄性海鸥会吃掉邻居的蛋。当这种情况发生时,居住在密集地区的雌海鸥会采取同步产卵的策略,即每隔一天同步产卵。野外观察表明,每窝蛋中第一个产下的蛋是最有可能被吃掉的。在本文中,我们分析了一个离散时间的产卵行为模型,该模型可以跟踪巢中产卵的顺序。使用陪审团条件,我们发现当群落密度(每单位面积的巢)超过一个临界值时,平衡不稳定进入两个周期,并且随着密度的进一步增加,两个周期变得越来越同步。我们证明了在同步群体中比在非同步群体中更多的卵在同类相食中存活下来。
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引用次数: 1
Editorial 编辑
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12328
J. Blackwood
For nearly a decade, editors of Natural Resource Modeling have organized special sessions as part of the Joint Mathematics Meetings (JMM). The JMM is an annual conference that brings together thousands of mathematicians and provides an excellent venue to showcase research in natural resource modeling. The idea for this special issue emerged after talks given at the JMM held in Baltimore, Maryland in January 2019 as well as the JMM held in Denver, Colorado in January 2020 as part of such special sessions. The collection of articles in this special issue highlight the breadth of research topics that fall under the umbrella of natural resource modeling. Within this issue, readers will learn about optimal harvest times that, for example, maximize stock and yield while minimizing costs. Another article investigates the management of fungal pathogens affecting bats. Readers will also learn about modern issues related to predator–prey and host–parasitoid–hyperparasitoid systems as well as synchrony and cannibalism. Strategies for individuals to achieve computational fluency, often a central component of research in resource modeling, is explored. I would like to thank all of the authors for their contributions and the reviewers for their help in the process. I also thank Shandelle Henson, the Editor‐in‐Chief of Natural Resource Modeling, for her support in creating this special issue. Lastly, I thank Suzanne Robertson, for her help in editing this special issue. I hope the readers enjoy learning more about the topics explored in the articles and find them informative for their own research endeavors.
近十年来,《自然资源建模》的编辑组织了特别会议,作为联合数学会议(JMM)的一部分。JMM是一年一度的会议,汇集了数千名数学家,并提供了一个展示自然资源建模研究的绝佳场所。这个特刊的想法是在2019年1月在马里兰州巴尔的摩举行的JMM和2020年1月在科罗拉多州丹佛市举行的JMM作为这些特别会议的一部分进行的会谈之后出现的。本特刊中的文章集突出了自然资源建模下的研究主题的广度。在本期中,读者将了解最佳收获时间,例如,最大限度地提高库存和产量,同时最大限度地降低成本。另一篇文章探讨了影响蝙蝠的真菌病原体的管理。读者还将了解与捕食者-猎物和宿主-寄生虫-超寄生虫系统以及同步性和同类相食有关的现代问题。个人实现计算流畅性的策略,通常是资源建模研究的核心组成部分,进行了探索。我要感谢所有作者的贡献和审稿人在这个过程中的帮助。我还要感谢《自然资源建模》杂志的主编Shandelle Henson对本期特刊的支持。最后,我要感谢苏珊娜·罗伯逊,感谢她帮助编辑本期特刊。我希望读者喜欢了解更多关于文章中探讨的主题,并发现它们对他们自己的研究工作有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
A methodological framework for the hydrological model selection process in water resource management projects 水资源管理项目中水文模型选择过程的方法论框架
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12326
D. Ghonchepour, Amir Sadoddin, A. Bahremand, B. Croke, A. Jakeman, A. Salmanmahiny
This study aims to present a process for hydrological model exploration for selecting an appropriate model compatible with the modeling objectives. The process consists of three stages: (1) initial choice based on the modeling objectives; (2) model selection based on intercomparison among underlying conceptualizations of the models; and (3) final model selection based on influencing criteria such as availability of the model software and documentation, and availability of appropriate data. As an applied example, the process was used to find an appropriate model for a project to evaluate water supply and demand under climate and land use change scenarios in the Gorgan‐rud River Basin, Iran. The criteria affecting the final choice of a hydrological model were classified into three categories: (1) criteria related to the model, (2) criteria related to the model user, and (3) criteria related to the study area.
本研究旨在介绍水文模型探索过程,以选择与建模目标兼容的适当模型。该过程包括三个阶段:(1)基于建模目标的初始选择;(2) 基于模型的基本概念之间的相互比较的模型选择;以及(3)基于影响标准的最终模型选择,例如模型软件和文档的可用性以及适当数据的可用性。作为一个应用示例,该过程用于为项目寻找合适的模型,以评估伊朗戈尔甘鲁德河流域气候和土地利用变化情景下的水供应和需求。影响水文模型最终选择的标准分为三类:(1)与模型相关的标准,(2)与模型用户相关的标准和(3)与研究区域相关的标准。
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引用次数: 4
Issue Information 问题信息
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12273
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引用次数: 0
Optimal control of harvest timing in discrete population models 离散种群模型中收获时机的最优控制
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12321
Skylar Grey, S. Lenhart, F. Hilker, Daniel Franco
Harvest plays an important role in management decisions, from fisheries to pest control. Discrete‐time models enable us to explore the importance of timing of management decisions, including the order of events of particular actions. We derive novel mechanistic models featuring explicit within‐season harvest timing and level. We explore optimization of within‐season harvest level and timing through optimal control of these population models. With a fixed harvest level, harvest timing is taken as the control. Then both harvest timing and level are used as controls. We maximize an objective functional which includes management goals of maximizing yield, maximizing stock, and minimizing costs associated with both harvest intensity and harvest timing. While standard models with compensatory population dynamics predict it is best to harvest as early as possible in the season, we find instances where harvesting later in the season is optimal. Furthermore, we discover interesting oscillations in the population size, which would be unexpected in the model without time‐varying controls.
收获在从渔业到虫害防治的管理决策中起着重要作用。离散时间模型使我们能够探索管理决策时机的重要性,包括特定行动的事件顺序。我们推导出具有明确的季节内收获时间和水平的新型机制模型。我们通过对这些种群模型的最优控制来探索季内收获水平和时间的优化。在固定的收获水平下,以收获时间为控制。然后,收割时间和关卡都被用作控制。我们最大化一个目标函数,其中包括最大化产量,最大化库存和最小化与收获强度和收获时间相关的成本的管理目标。虽然具有补偿种群动态的标准模型预测在季节中尽可能早地收获是最好的,但我们发现在季节后期收获是最佳的实例。此外,我们发现了种群大小的有趣振荡,这在没有时变控制的模型中是意想不到的。
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引用次数: 4
Risk averse choices of managed beach widths under environmental uncertainty 环境不确定性下管理海滩宽度的风险规避选择
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12324
Di Jin, P. Hoagland, A. Ashton
Applying a theoretical geo‐economic approach, we examined key factors affecting decisions about the choice of beach width when eroded coastal beaches are being nourished (i.e., when fill is placed to widen a beach). Within this geo‐economic framework, optimal beach width is positively related to its values for hazard protection and recreation and negatively related to nourishment costs and the discount rate. Using a dynamic modeling framework, we investigated the time paths of beach width and nourishment that maximized net present value under an accelerating sea level. We then analyzed how environmental uncertainty about expected future beach width, arising from natural shoreline dynamics, intermittent large storms, or sea‐level rise, leads to economic choices favoring narrower beaches. Risk aversion can affect a coastal property owner's choice of beach width in contradictory ways: the expected benefits of hazard protection must be balanced against the expected costs of repeated nourishment actions.
应用理论的地理经济学方法,我们研究了当侵蚀的海岸海滩被滋养时(即,当填充物被放置以扩大海滩时)影响海滩宽度选择的关键因素。在这一地理经济框架内,最佳海滩宽度与其危害保护和娱乐价值呈正相关,与营养成本和贴现率负相关。使用动态建模框架,我们研究了在海平面加速下使净现值最大化的海滩宽度和营养的时间路径。然后,我们分析了由自然海岸线动态、间歇性大风暴或海平面上升引起的对预期未来海滩宽度的环境不确定性如何导致经济选择倾向于更窄的海滩。风险厌恶会以矛盾的方式影响海岸财产所有者对海滩宽度的选择:必须平衡危险保护的预期收益与重复滋养行动的预期成本。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Natural Resource Modeling
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