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Optimal control of harvest timing in discrete population models 离散种群模型中收获时机的最优控制
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12321
Skylar Grey, S. Lenhart, F. Hilker, Daniel Franco
Harvest plays an important role in management decisions, from fisheries to pest control. Discrete‐time models enable us to explore the importance of timing of management decisions, including the order of events of particular actions. We derive novel mechanistic models featuring explicit within‐season harvest timing and level. We explore optimization of within‐season harvest level and timing through optimal control of these population models. With a fixed harvest level, harvest timing is taken as the control. Then both harvest timing and level are used as controls. We maximize an objective functional which includes management goals of maximizing yield, maximizing stock, and minimizing costs associated with both harvest intensity and harvest timing. While standard models with compensatory population dynamics predict it is best to harvest as early as possible in the season, we find instances where harvesting later in the season is optimal. Furthermore, we discover interesting oscillations in the population size, which would be unexpected in the model without time‐varying controls.
收获在从渔业到虫害防治的管理决策中起着重要作用。离散时间模型使我们能够探索管理决策时机的重要性,包括特定行动的事件顺序。我们推导出具有明确的季节内收获时间和水平的新型机制模型。我们通过对这些种群模型的最优控制来探索季内收获水平和时间的优化。在固定的收获水平下,以收获时间为控制。然后,收割时间和关卡都被用作控制。我们最大化一个目标函数,其中包括最大化产量,最大化库存和最小化与收获强度和收获时间相关的成本的管理目标。虽然具有补偿种群动态的标准模型预测在季节中尽可能早地收获是最好的,但我们发现在季节后期收获是最佳的实例。此外,我们发现了种群大小的有趣振荡,这在没有时变控制的模型中是意想不到的。
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引用次数: 4
Risk averse choices of managed beach widths under environmental uncertainty 环境不确定性下管理海滩宽度的风险规避选择
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12324
Di Jin, P. Hoagland, A. Ashton
Applying a theoretical geo‐economic approach, we examined key factors affecting decisions about the choice of beach width when eroded coastal beaches are being nourished (i.e., when fill is placed to widen a beach). Within this geo‐economic framework, optimal beach width is positively related to its values for hazard protection and recreation and negatively related to nourishment costs and the discount rate. Using a dynamic modeling framework, we investigated the time paths of beach width and nourishment that maximized net present value under an accelerating sea level. We then analyzed how environmental uncertainty about expected future beach width, arising from natural shoreline dynamics, intermittent large storms, or sea‐level rise, leads to economic choices favoring narrower beaches. Risk aversion can affect a coastal property owner's choice of beach width in contradictory ways: the expected benefits of hazard protection must be balanced against the expected costs of repeated nourishment actions.
应用理论的地理经济学方法,我们研究了当侵蚀的海岸海滩被滋养时(即,当填充物被放置以扩大海滩时)影响海滩宽度选择的关键因素。在这一地理经济框架内,最佳海滩宽度与其危害保护和娱乐价值呈正相关,与营养成本和贴现率负相关。使用动态建模框架,我们研究了在海平面加速下使净现值最大化的海滩宽度和营养的时间路径。然后,我们分析了由自然海岸线动态、间歇性大风暴或海平面上升引起的对预期未来海滩宽度的环境不确定性如何导致经济选择倾向于更窄的海滩。风险厌恶会以矛盾的方式影响海岸财产所有者对海滩宽度的选择:必须平衡危险保护的预期收益与重复滋养行动的预期成本。
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引用次数: 1
The effective sample size for multivariate spatial processes with an application to soil contamination 多元空间过程的有效样本量及其在土壤污染中的应用
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-07-14 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12322
R. Vallejos, Jonathan Acosta
Effective sample size accounts for the equivalent number of independent observations contained in a sample of correlated data. This notion has been widely studied in the context of univariate spatial variables. In that case, the effective sample size determines the reduction in the sample size due to the existing spatial correlation. In this paper, we generalize the methodology for multivariate spatial variables to provide a common effective sample size when all variables have been measured at the same locations. Together with the definition, we provide examples to investigate what an effective sample size looks like. An application for a soil contamination data set is considered. To reduce the dimensions of the process, clustering techniques are applied to obtain three bivariate vectors that are modeled using coregionalization models. Because the sample size of the data set is moderate and the locations are very unevenly distributed in the study area, the spatial analysis is challenging and interesting. We find that due to the presence of spatial autocorrelation, the sample size can be reduced by 38.53%, avoiding the duplication of information.
有效样本量是指相关数据样本中包含的独立观测值的等效数量。这一概念在单变量空间变量的背景下得到了广泛的研究。在这种情况下,有效样本量决定了由于存在空间相关性而减少的样本量。在本文中,我们推广了多元空间变量的方法,以提供在同一位置测量所有变量时的共同有效样本量。与定义一起,我们提供了一些例子来研究有效样本量是什么样子的。考虑了土壤污染数据集的应用。为了降低过程的维度,采用聚类技术获得三个二元向量,这些向量使用共区域化模型建模。由于数据集的样本量适中,并且研究区域内的位置分布非常不均匀,因此空间分析具有挑战性和趣味性。我们发现,由于空间自相关的存在,样本量可以减少38.53%,避免了信息的重复。
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引用次数: 4
Model analyses show how biodiversity conservation could reduce infectious diseases in an ecosystem 模型分析显示了生物多样性保护如何减少生态系统中的传染病
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-07-05 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12319
K. Duffy, O. C. Collins
Biodiversity conservation benefits the sustainability of the environment and also the well‐being of humanity. Here we consider the possible importance of biodiversity of resources in limiting disease. With this aim we formulate a dynamical system model for a terrestrial ecosystem that takes into account, biodiversity of resources together with competition among species. The dynamics of the model are explored using appropriate dynamical system analyses. The effects of the competition terms and carrying capacity on the dynamics of the model are considered in terms of which ranges allow sustainability of the system. Simulations illustrate how biodiversity conservation can of itself lead to reduction in infectious diseases in an ecosystem.
生物多样性保护有利于环境的可持续性,也有利于人类的福祉。在这里,我们考虑资源的生物多样性在限制疾病方面可能具有的重要性。为此,我们为陆地生态系统建立了一个动力系统模型,该模型考虑了资源的生物多样性以及物种之间的竞争。使用适当的动力系统分析来探索模型的动力学。考虑了竞争条件和承载能力对模型动态的影响,根据哪些范围允许系统的可持续性。模拟说明了生物多样性保护本身如何减少生态系统中的传染病。
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引用次数: 0
Paths to computational fluency for natural resource educators, researchers, and managers 自然资源教育者、研究人员和管理人员的计算流畅性之路
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12318
R. Erickson, J. Burnett, Mark T. Wiltermuth, E. Bulliner, Leslie Hsu
Natural resource management and supporting research teams need computational fluency in the data and model‐rich 21st century. Computational fluency describes the ability of practitioners and scientists to conduct research and represent natural systems within the computer's environment. Advancement in information synthesis for natural resource management requires more sophisticated computational approaches, as well as reproducible, reusable, extensible, and transferable methods. Despite this importance, many new and current natural resource practitioners lack computational fluency and no common set of recommended resources and practices exist for learning these skills. Broadly, attaining computational fluency entails moving beyond the simple use of computers to applying sound computational principles and methods and including computational experts (such as computer scientists) on research teams. Our path for computational fluency includes using open‐source tools when possible; reproducible data management, statistics, and modeling; understanding and applying the benefits of basic computer programming to carry out more complex procedures; tracking code with version control; working in controlled computer environments; and using advanced computing resources.
在数据和模型丰富的21世纪,自然资源管理和支持研究团队需要计算流畅性。计算流利性描述了从业者和科学家在计算机环境中进行研究和表示自然系统的能力。自然资源管理信息综合的进步需要更复杂的计算方法,以及可重复使用、可扩展和可转移的方法。尽管这很重要,但许多新的和当前的自然资源从业者缺乏计算流畅性,也没有一套通用的推荐资源和实践来学习这些技能。从广义上讲,实现计算流畅性需要超越简单的计算机使用,应用合理的计算原理和方法,并将计算专家(如计算机科学家)纳入研究团队。我们的计算流畅性之路包括尽可能使用开源工具;可复制的数据管理、统计和建模;理解并应用基础计算机编程的好处来执行更复杂的程序;带有版本控制的跟踪代码;在受控的计算机环境中工作;以及使用先进的计算资源。
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引用次数: 1
Coexistence and harvesting optimal policy in three species food chain model with general Holling type functional response 具有一般Holling型功能响应的三物种食物链模型共存与收获最优策略
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12316
M. Dawed, Kiros G. Kebedow
In this paper, we have discussed harvesting of prey and intermediate predator species. Both are subjected to Holling type I–V functional response. Conditions for local and global stability of the nonnegative equilibria are verified. The permanent coexistence criterion of the model system and existence of optimal equilibrium solution of the control problem are demonstrated. Maximum sustainable yield and maximal net present revenue are determined. To confirm analytical results, numerical solution has been carried out using the Matlab™ ODE solver ODE45 and the simulations show the model system reveals complex behavior (such as oscillations), which reflects the real situation.
在这篇论文中,我们讨论了猎物和中间捕食者的捕获。两者都受到霍林I–V型功能反应的影响。验证了非负平衡点的局部和全局稳定性的条件。证明了模型系统的永久共存准则和控制问题最优平衡解的存在性。确定了最大可持续收益和最大净现值。为了证实分析结果,使用Matlab进行了数值求解™ ODE求解器ODE45和仿真表明,模型系统揭示了复杂的行为(如振荡),反映了真实情况。
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引用次数: 1
The effects of allelochemical transfer on the dynamics of hosts, parasitoids, and competing hyperparasitoids 化感化学转移对寄主、拟寄主和竞争超拟寄主动态的影响
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12311
Mark P. Zimmerman, D. M. Chan, K. Kester, R. Rael, S. Robertson
Allelochemicals produced by plants may be ingested by herbivorous insects and transferred to higher trophic levels with potentially deleterious effects. We develop a system of differential equations to investigate the effect of the transfer of allelochemicals, such as nicotine, on the population dynamics of a system of hosts, parasitoids, and two competing hyperparasitoids that attack different life stages of the parasitoids. We find both somewhat deleterious effects of nicotine on the larvae‐attacking hyperparasitoids and increased attack rates for the pupae‐attacking hyperparasitoids can promote coexistence. We also use an evolutionary game‐theoretic approach to determine the optimal distribution of hyperparasitoid attacks among nicotine‐producing and nicotine‐free plants. With strong deleterious effects of nicotine and increased attack rates for the pupae‐attacking hyperparasitoid, we find both species attack parasitoids on the nicotine‐free plant but only pupae‐attacking hyperparasitoids attack parasitoids on the nicotine‐producing plant.
植物产生的化感物质可能被食草昆虫吸收并转移到更高的营养水平,具有潜在的有害影响。我们开发了一个微分方程系统来研究化感物质(如尼古丁)的转移对寄主、拟寄生物和两个相互竞争的超拟寄生物的种群动态的影响,这些系统攻击拟寄生物的不同生命阶段。我们发现尼古丁对攻击寄生蜂的幼虫有一定的有害作用,而对攻击寄生蜂的蛹的攻击率增加,可以促进共存。我们还使用进化博弈论的方法来确定产生尼古丁和不产生尼古丁的植物中超寄生物攻击的最佳分布。由于尼古丁的强烈有害作用和蛹攻击的高寄生蜂的攻击率增加,我们发现两个物种都攻击不含尼古丁的植物上的寄生蜂,而只有蛹攻击的高寄生蜂攻击产生尼古丁的植物上的寄生蜂。
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引用次数: 1
Taxing interacting externalities of ocean acidification, global warming, and eutrophication 对海洋酸化、全球变暖和富营养化等相互作用的外部性进行征税
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-06-18 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12317
Martin C. Hänsel, J. Bergh
We model a stylized economy dependent on agriculture and fisheries to study optimal environmental policy in the face of interacting external effects of ocean acidification, global warming, and eutrophication. This allows us to capture some of the latest insights from research on ocean acidification. Using a static two‐sector general equilibrium model we derive optimal rules for national taxes on CO 2 emissions and agricultural run‐off and show how they depend on both isolated and interacting damage effects. In addition, we derive a second‐best rule for a tax on agricultural run‐off of fertilizers for the realistic case that effective internalization of CO 2 externalities is lacking. The results contribute to a better understanding of the social costs of ocean acidification in coastal economies when there is interaction with other environmental stressors.
我们建立了一个依赖于农业和渔业的程式化经济模型,以研究面对海洋酸化、全球变暖和富营养化相互作用的外部影响时的最佳环境政策。这使我们能够从海洋酸化研究中获得一些最新的见解。利用静态的两部门一般均衡模型,我们得出了二氧化碳排放和农业径流的国家税收的最佳规则,并展示了它们如何依赖于孤立的和相互作用的损害效应。此外,针对缺乏二氧化碳外部性有效内部化的现实情况,我们得出了对化肥农业径流征税的次优规则。这些结果有助于更好地理解沿海经济体在与其他环境压力因素相互作用时海洋酸化的社会成本。
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引用次数: 4
The role of input and hydrological parameters uncertainties in extreme hydrological simulations 输入和水文参数不确定性在极端水文模拟中的作用
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-06-18 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12320
H. Meresa, B. Tischbein, Josephine Mendela, Rediet Demoz, Tarikua Abreha, M. Weldemichael, K. Ogbu
Quantifying possible sources of uncertainty in simulations of hydrological extreme events is very important for better risk management in extreme situations and water resource planning. The main objective of this research work is to identify and address the role of input data quality and hydrological parameter sets, and uncertainty propagation in hydrological extremes estimation. This includes identifying and estimating their contribution to flood and low flow magnitude using two objective functions (NSE for flood and LogNSE for low flow), 20,000 Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological parameter sets, and three frequency distribution models (Log‐Normal, Pearson‐III, and Generalized Extreme Value). The influence of uncertainty on the simulated flow is not uniform across all the selected three catchments due to different flow regimes and runoff generation mechanisms. The result shows that the uncertainty in high flow frequency modeling mainly comes from the input data quality. In the modeling of low flow frequency, the main contributor to the total uncertainty is model parameterization. The total uncertainty of QT90 (extreme peak flow quantile at 90‐year return period) quantile shows that the interaction of input data and hydrological parameter sets have a significant role in the total uncertainty. In contrast, in the QT10 (extreme low flow quantile at 10‐year return period) estimation, the input data quality and hydrological parameters significantly impact the total uncertainty. This implies that the primary factors and their interactions may cause considerable risk in water resources management and flood and drought risk management. Therefore, neglecting these factors and their interaction in disaster risk management, water resource planning, and evaluation of environmental impact assessment is not feasible and may lead to considerable risk.
量化水文极端事件模拟中可能的不确定性来源对于更好地管理极端情况下的风险和水资源规划非常重要。本研究工作的主要目标是确定和解决输入数据质量和水文参数集以及不确定性传播在水文极值估计中的作用。这包括使用两个目标函数(NSE表示洪水,LogNSE表示低流量)、20000 Hydroiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning(HBV)水文参数集和三个频率分布模型(Log‐Normal、Pearson‐III和广义极值)来识别和估计它们对洪水和低流量量级的贡献。由于不同的流态和产流机制,不确定性对模拟流量的影响在选定的三个集水区中并不一致。结果表明,高流量频率建模的不确定性主要来自于输入数据的质量。在低流动频率的建模中,导致总不确定性的主要因素是模型参数化。QT90(90年一遇极端洪峰流量分位数)分位数的总不确定性表明,输入数据和水文参数集的相互作用在总不确定性中起着重要作用。相反,在QT10(10年一遇的极低流量分位数)估计中,输入数据质量和水文参数显著影响总的不确定性。这意味着,主要因素及其相互作用可能会在水资源管理以及洪水和干旱风险管理中造成相当大的风险。因此,在灾害风险管理、水资源规划和环境影响评价中忽视这些因素及其相互作用是不可行的,可能会导致相当大的风险。
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引用次数: 4
Optimal spatial management in a multiuse marine habitat: Balancing fisheries and tourism 多用途海洋栖息地的最佳空间管理:平衡渔业和旅游业
IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-05-18 DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12309
C. Falco, H. Moeller
Marine fisheries are an important source of food supply and play an important economic role in many regions worldwide. However, due to aggressive fishing practices they are increasingly overexploited. Marine reserves have the potential to alleviate this problem and moreover, they also provide a physical area where an alternative economic activity can exist without being in conflict with fishing gear. Here we explore the idea of combining multiple economic activities in a marine ecosystem, namely: fishing and tourism. We use a model in which the fish population evolves according to a reaction‐diffusion partial differential equation, and we consider the interactions between fishing and tourism. We use optimal control theory to find, depending on the model parameters, the optimal management strategy. The results show that, subject to certain conditions, it is possible to have two different revenue streams in the same habitat in contrast with the classical view of competing uses. We also corroborate that marine reserves emerge as the optimal strategy and that the presence of visitors in these areas generates larger profits than if only fishing was considered.
海洋渔业是粮食供应的重要来源,在全球许多地区发挥着重要的经济作用。然而,由于侵略性的捕鱼行为,它们越来越被过度开发。海洋保护区有可能缓解这一问题,此外,它们还提供了一个可以存在另一种经济活动而不与渔具冲突的物理区域。在这里,我们探讨了在海洋生态系统中结合多种经济活动的想法,即:渔业和旅游业。我们使用了一个模型,其中鱼类种群根据反应-扩散偏微分方程进化,我们考虑了渔业和旅游业之间的相互作用。我们利用最优控制理论,根据模型参数找到最优管理策略。结果表明,在一定条件下,同一生境可能有两种不同的收入来源,这与传统的竞争用途观点不同。我们还证实,海洋保护区是最理想的策略,游客在这些地区的存在比只考虑捕鱼产生更大的利润。
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引用次数: 3
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Natural Resource Modeling
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