This study presents integrated paleoseismic and geodetic studies from the Kaladungi Fault (KF) in the Kumaon-Garhwal Himalaya to constrain the rupture history of major historical earthquakes. A paleoseismic trench excavated at the base of a 15 m high fault scarp at Nandpur revealed geological evidence of four surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes. In total 24 Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and 24 radiocarbon (14C) ages allowed robust bracketing of these events.
Based on offsets of sedimentary units and ages we infer that Event-I took place between BCE 2945-1990 and BCE 1480-862, and Event-II was between BCE 1264-643 and BCE 793-287. These events could not be correlated with any paleo-earthquakes due to broad age brackets and nonavailability of any pre-historic records. Event-III occurred between CE 1242–1408 and CE 1415–1529, while Event-IV (MRE) was between CE 1692–1761 and CE 1689–1822. To constrain and correlate the rupture lengths of Event III and Event IV, we considered historical records and regional paleoseismic data from Nepal, Kumaon-Garhwal to the western Himalaya. The Event-III corresponds to the CE 1505 earthquake and Event-IV (MRE) represents the CE 1803 earthquake. Moreover, the long-term slip-rate for the KF is estimated to be ∼7.1 mm/yr, which suggests the ∼40 % of the total slip (∼17.7 mm/yr, estimated from geodetic) being partitioned on this fault.
Paleoseismic evidence for the CE 1803 event indicates surface rupture, as demonstrated by fault displacements and tightly bracketed ages, countering previous claims of a blind rupture. Supporting this interpretation, geodetic modeling and seismicity patterns constrain the downdip locking extent of the Main Himalayan Thrust to ∼100 km north of the Main Frontal Thrust. The reassessment of rupture dimensions for CE 1803 event aligns with a seismic moment magnitude Mw ∼8.1–8.2 rupture.
With updated strain budget of ∼3.9 m of elastic strain accumulated since 1803, the region now represents a mature seismic gap with potential for another great earthquake. This study underscores the importance of integrating trench-based paleoseismic chronologies with GPS-constrained crustal deformation models to enhance seismic hazard assessments along the Himalayan front.
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