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A Systematic Review of Air Pollution Exposure and Brain Structure and Function during Development 空气污染暴露与发育过程中大脑结构和功能的系统回顾
Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.13.24313629
Jessica Morrel, Michelle Dong, Michael A. Rosario, Devyn L. Cotter, Katherine L. Bottenhorn, Megan Herting
Objectives: Air pollutants are known neurotoxicants. In this updated systematic review, we evaluate new evidence since our 2019 systematic review on the effect of outdoor air pollution exposure on childhood and adolescent brain structure and function as measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).Methods: Using PubMed and Web of Science, we conducted an updated literature search and systematic review of articles published through March 2024, using key terms for air pollution and functional and/or structural MRI. Two raters independently screened all articles using Covidence and implemented the risk of bias instrument for systematic reviews informing the World Health Organization Global Air Quality Guidelines. Results: We identified 222 relevant papers, and 14 new studies met our inclusion criteria. Including six studies from our 2019 review, the 20 publications to date include study populations from the United States, Netherlands, Spain, and United Kingdom. Studies investigated exposure periods spanning pregnancy through early adolescence, and estimated air pollutant exposure levels via personal monitoring, geospatial residential estimates, or school courtyard monitors. Brain MRI occurred when children were on average 6-14.7 years old; however, one study assessed newborns. Several MRI modalities were leveraged, including structural morphology, diffusion tensor imaging, restriction spectrum imaging, arterial spin labeling, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, as well as resting-state and task-based functional MRI. Air pollutants were associated with widespread brain differences, although the magnitude and direction of findings are largely inconsistent, making it difficult to draw strong conclusions.Conclusion: Prenatal and childhood exposure to outdoor air pollution is associated with structural and functional brain variations. Compared to our initial 2019 review, publications doubled - an increase that testifies to the importance of this public health issue. Further research is needed to clarify the effects of developmental timing, along with the downstream implications of outdoor air pollution exposure on children's cognitive and mental health.
目标:空气污染物是已知的神经毒物。在这篇更新的系统综述中,我们评估了自 2019 年系统综述以来,通过磁共振成像(MRI)测量室外空气污染暴露对儿童和青少年大脑结构和功能影响的新证据:我们使用 PubMed 和 Web of Science 对截至 2024 年 3 月发表的文章进行了最新文献检索和系统综述,使用的关键术语为空气污染和功能性和/或结构性 MRI。两名评审员使用 Covidence 对所有文章进行独立筛选,并使用偏倚风险工具对世界卫生组织全球空气质量指南的系统性综述进行评估。结果:我们确定了 222 篇相关论文,其中 14 项新研究符合我们的纳入标准。包括 2019 年回顾中的 6 项研究在内,迄今为止发表的 20 篇论文涉及美国、荷兰、西班牙和英国的研究人群。研究调查了从孕期到青春期早期的暴露期,并通过个人监测、地理空间居住估算或学校庭院监测仪估算了空气污染物暴露水平。脑磁共振成像在儿童平均 6-14.7 岁时进行;但有一项研究对新生儿进行了评估。研究采用了多种核磁共振成像模式,包括结构形态学、弥散张量成像、限制频谱成像、动脉自旋标记、磁共振波谱以及静息态和基于任务的功能性核磁共振成像。空气污染物与广泛的大脑差异有关,尽管研究结果的程度和方向在很大程度上不一致,因此很难得出有力的结论:结论:产前和儿童期暴露于室外空气污染与大脑结构和功能变异有关。与我们最初的 2019 年回顾相比,发表的文章翻了一番--这一增长证明了这一公共健康问题的重要性。需要开展进一步研究,以明确发育时间的影响,以及户外空气污染暴露对儿童认知和心理健康的下游影响。
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引用次数: 0
Direct and indirect genetic pathways between parental neuroticism and offspring emotional problems across development: evidence from 7 cohorts across 5 European nations 父母神经质与后代整个成长过程中的情绪问题之间的直接和间接遗传途径:来自 5 个欧洲国家 7 个队列的证据
Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.12.24313313
Hannah Sallis, Ilaria Costantini, Tugce Melisa Sau Chuong, Katri Kantojarvi, Robyn E Wootton, Hannah J Jones, Lea Sirignano, Josef Frank, Fabian Streit, Stephanie Witt, Lea Zillich, Maria Gilles, Helga Ask, Alex Siu Fung Kwong, Mark Adams, Kate Tilling, Deborah A. Lawlor, Nicholas J Timpson, Tiina Paunio, Alexandra Havdahl, Andrew M McIntosh, Alan Stein, Deborah James, Rebecca M. Pearson
Disentangling direct and indirect genetic pathways underlying the intergenerational transmission of emotional problems could guide preventative strategies and further the understanding of the role of parental mental health in children's outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the extent to which genetic pathways that are direct (via child genotype) and indirect (e.g., via parental phenotype) explain the well-established association between parent and child emotional problems. We leveraged data from seven European cohort studies with a combined population of Ntrios=15,475. Polygenic scores were calculated for parental and offspring neuroticism, as it represents a dispositional trait underlying emotional problems. Emotional problems in offspring were measured using validated scales across various developmental stages from early childhood to adulthood. We used neuroticism polygenic scores within a structural equation modelling framework to distinguish between direct genetic pathways from parental genotype to offspring outcome (acting through offspring genotype), and indirect genetic pathways (acting through parental phenotype and associated environment). Standard errors for direct genetic, indirect genetic and total effects were bootstrapped and meta-analyses pooled effect estimates at three developmental stages (childhood: 3-4 years, adolescence: 11-13 years, adulthood: 18+ years). We found evidence suggesting an indirect genetic pathway between mothers and child emotional problems during early childhood (pooled estimate, mean difference in child emotional problems score per 1SD increase in maternal PGS for neuroticism=0.04, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.07). This association attenuated over child development, while direct genetic pathways strengthened. High attrition rates, measurement error and low variance explained by polygenic scores may have altered precision of the estimates, influencing the interpretation of the results. However, we provide the first multi-cohort study to provide evidence for an indirect genetic pathway from maternal neuroticism to early child emotional problems. This suggests that there are likely processes other than direct genetic pathways involved in the intergenerational transmission of emotional problems, highlighting the importance of timely support to prevent and reduce emotional issues in mothers as a preventative strategy for emotional difficulties.
厘清情绪问题代际传递的直接和间接遗传途径,可以为预防策略提供指导,并进一步了解父母的心理健康对儿童结果的影响。本研究旨在估算直接遗传途径(通过儿童基因型)和间接遗传途径(如通过父母表型)在多大程度上可以解释父母和儿童情绪问题之间业已确立的关联。我们利用了七项欧洲队列研究的数据,这些研究的总人数为 15,475 人。我们计算了父母和后代神经质的多基因分数,因为它代表了情绪问题的一个基本性状。我们使用经过验证的量表测量了后代从幼儿期到成年期不同发育阶段的情绪问题。我们在结构方程模型框架内使用神经质多基因评分来区分从父母基因型到后代结果的直接遗传途径(通过后代基因型起作用)和间接遗传途径(通过父母表型和相关环境起作用)。我们对直接遗传效应、间接遗传效应和总效应的标准误差进行了引导,并对三个发育阶段(儿童期:3-4 岁、青少年期:11-13 岁、成年期:18 岁以上)的效应估计值进行了荟萃分析。我们发现有证据表明,在幼儿期,母亲与儿童情绪问题之间存在间接遗传途径(汇总估计值,母亲神经质 PGS 每增加 1SD 儿童情绪问题得分的平均差异=0.04,95% CI:0.01,0.07)。这种关联随着儿童的成长而减弱,而直接遗传途径则得到加强。高自然减员率、测量误差和多基因评分解释的低方差可能会改变估计值的精确度,从而影响对结果的解释。不过,我们提供了第一份多队列研究的证据,证明了从母亲神经质到儿童早期情绪问题的间接遗传途径。这表明,在情绪问题的代际传递过程中,除了直接的遗传途径外,还可能存在其他过程,这突出了及时提供支持以预防和减少母亲的情绪问题作为情绪障碍预防策略的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence, intensity and risk factors of soil-transmitted helminthiasis after five effective rounds of preventive chemotherapy across three implementation units in Ondo State, Nigeria 尼日利亚翁多州三个实施单位经过五轮有效的预防性化疗后土壤传播蠕虫病的流行率、强度和风险因素
Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.13.24313604
Hammed Mogaji, Francisca Olamiju, Fajana Oyinlola, Ijeoma Achu, Nimota Adekunle, Lydia Etuk Udofia, Ekaette Godwin Edelduok, Clement Ameh Yaro, Olanike Oladipupo, Alice Kehinde, Fatai Oyediran, Moses Aderogba, Louise Makau-Barasa, Uwem Friday Ekpo
Background: Routine epidemiological data are essential for monitoring the effectiveness of preventive chemotherapy (PC), optimizing resource allocation, and addressing the evolving needs in the elimination of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). This study assesses the prevalence, intensity, and associated risk factors of STH following five rounds of albendazole-based PC in three implementation units (IUs) in Ondo State, Nigeria. Methodology: Fresh stool samples were collected from 2,093 children aged 5–14 years across 45 systematically selected schools in three IUs: Ese-Odo, Irele, and Ile-Oluji. The samples were analyzed using the Kato-Katz technique. Additionally, standardized questionnaires were administered to gather data on demographics and access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) resources. Data analysis was conducted using R software version 4.3.2, with a 95% confidence interval. Principal Findings/Conclusions: The parasitological data indicated a significant decline in the aggregated prevalence of STH across the three IUs. In Ese-Odo, the prevalence decreased to 25.8% (95% CI: 23.0–29.0) from 39% at baseline (d = -34%, p = 0.00). In Irele, prevalence dropped to 9.7% (95% CI: 7.6–12.0) from 51.3% at baseline (d = -81%, p = 0.00), and in Ile-Oluji, prevalence was reduced to 6.4% (95% CI: 4.6–8.7) from 23% at baseline (d = -72.2%, p = 0.00). The most prevalent STH species was Ascaris lumbricoides, with infection rates of 25.5%, 9.4%, and 6.4% in Ese-Odo, Irele, and Ile-Oluji, respectively, followed by Trichuris trichiura in Ese-Odo (2.7%) and Irele (0.4%), while hookworm infections were detected only in Irele (0.7%). The majority of infections were of low intensity in Ese-Odo (91.0%), Irele (96.8%), and Ile-Oluji (100%). Access to improved sanitation (17.7%, 54.9%, and 58.2%, p < 0.05), improved water sources (24.5%, 66.1%, and 69.8%, p < 0.05), and handwashing facilities (9.0%, 39.6%, and 25.4%) was suboptimal across Ese-Odo, Irele, and Ile-Oluji, respectively. Open defecation rates were high in Ese-Odo (54.2%), Irele (36.3%), and Ile-Oluji (34.3%). In Ese-Odo, significant risk factors for STH infection included the use of hand-pump boreholes (AOR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.23–4.88, p = 0.01), unprotected dug wells (AOR: 3.25, 95% CI: 0.96–11.36, p = 0.06), ventilated improved pit latrines (AOR: 3.95, 95% CI: 1.13–16.1, p = 0.04), pit latrines without a slab (AOR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.27–3.8, p = 0.01), and failure to use soap after defecation, both when soap was available (AOR: 12.09, 95% CI: 1.86–112.97, p = 0.01) and when soap was unavailable (AOR: 8.19, 95% CI: 1.73–76.65, p = 0.04). In Irele, access to protected dug wells was marginally significant (AOR: 1.79, 95% CI: 0.96–3.21, p = 0.06), while in Ile-Oluji, access to river water emerged as a significant risk factor (AOR: 7.97, 95% CI: 1.81–58.58, p = 0.02). The use of rainwater was found to be protective across all three IUs. These findings demonstrate significant progress in reducin
背景:常规流行病学数据对于监测预防性化疗(PC)的效果、优化资源分配以及满足消除土壤传播蠕虫病(STH)方面不断变化的需求至关重要。本研究评估了尼日利亚翁多州三个实施单位(IUs)在使用五轮阿苯达唑预防性化疗后 STH 的流行率、强度和相关风险因素。方法:在三个实施单位系统选择了 45 所学校的 2093 名 5-14 岁儿童采集新鲜粪便样本:Ese-Odo、Irele 和 Ile-Oluji。样本采用卡托-卡茨技术进行分析。此外,还进行了标准化问卷调查,以收集有关人口统计学和水、环境卫生和个人卫生(WASH)资源获取情况的数据。数据分析使用 R 软件 4.3.2 版进行,置信区间为 95%。主要结果/结论:寄生虫学数据表明,在三个国际单位中,性传播疾病的总体流行率显著下降。在埃塞-奥多,感染率从基线时的 39% 降至 25.8%(95% 置信区间:23.0-29.0)(d = -34%,p = 0.00)。在伊雷莱,流行率从基线时的 51.3%降至 9.7%(95% CI:7.6-12.0)(d = -81%,p = 0.00),在伊莱-奥卢吉,流行率从基线时的 23%降至 6.4%(95% CI:4.6-8.7)(d = -72.2%,p = 0.00)。最常见的 STH 种类是蛔虫,在埃塞-奥多、伊雷勒和伊雷-奥卢吉的感染率分别为 25.5%、9.4% 和 6.4%,其次是伊塞-奥多(2.7%)和伊雷勒(0.4%)的毛滴虫,而钩虫感染仅在伊雷勒(0.7%)发现。在埃塞-奥多(91.0%)、伊雷莱(96.8%)和伊莱-奥卢吉(100%),大多数感染强度较低。在埃塞-奥多、伊雷勒和伊莱-奥卢吉,获得改善的卫生设施(17.7%、54.9% 和 58.2%,p < 0.05)、改善的水源(24.5%、66.1% 和 69.8%,p < 0.05)和洗手设施(9.0%、39.6% 和 25.4%)的情况分别不理想。埃塞-奥多(54.2%)、伊雷勒(36.3%)和伊莱-奥卢吉(34.3%)的露天排便率很高。在埃塞-奥多,感染性传播疾病的重要风险因素包括使用手泵井眼(AOR:2.44,95% CI:1.23-4.88,p = 0.01)、无保护掘井(AOR:3.25,95% CI:0.96-11.36,p = 0.06)、通风改良坑厕(AOR:3.95,95% CI:1.13-16.1,p = 0.04)。1,p = 0.04)、无板坑式厕所(AOR:2.19,95% CI:1.27-3.8,p = 0.01)以及排便后不使用肥皂(有肥皂时(AOR:12.09,95% CI:1.86-112.97,p = 0.01)和无肥皂时(AOR:8.19,95% CI:1.73-76.65,p = 0.04))。在伊雷莱,使用受保护的挖井略有意义(AOR:1.79,95% CI:0.96-3.21,p = 0.06),而在伊莱-奥卢吉,使用河水成为一个重要的风险因素(AOR:7.97,95% CI:1.81-58.58,p = 0.02)。在所有三个国际单位中,使用雨水都具有保护作用。这些结果表明,在采取 PC 干预措施后,三个国际单位在降低 STH 感染率方面取得了重大进展。不过,这些数据也强调了需要加强努力,改善饮水、环卫和讲卫生运动设施的获取和使用,以实现消灭 STH 的目标。
{"title":"Prevalence, intensity and risk factors of soil-transmitted helminthiasis after five effective rounds of preventive chemotherapy across three implementation units in Ondo State, Nigeria","authors":"Hammed Mogaji, Francisca Olamiju, Fajana Oyinlola, Ijeoma Achu, Nimota Adekunle, Lydia Etuk Udofia, Ekaette Godwin Edelduok, Clement Ameh Yaro, Olanike Oladipupo, Alice Kehinde, Fatai Oyediran, Moses Aderogba, Louise Makau-Barasa, Uwem Friday Ekpo","doi":"10.1101/2024.09.13.24313604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.13.24313604","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Routine epidemiological data are essential for monitoring the effectiveness of preventive chemotherapy (PC), optimizing resource allocation, and addressing the evolving needs in the elimination of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). This study assesses the prevalence, intensity, and associated risk factors of STH following five rounds of albendazole-based PC in three implementation units (IUs) in Ondo State, Nigeria. Methodology: Fresh stool samples were collected from 2,093 children aged 5–14 years across 45 systematically selected schools in three IUs: Ese-Odo, Irele, and Ile-Oluji. The samples were analyzed using the Kato-Katz technique. Additionally, standardized questionnaires were administered to gather data on demographics and access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) resources. Data analysis was conducted using R software version 4.3.2, with a 95% confidence interval. Principal Findings/Conclusions: The parasitological data indicated a significant decline in the aggregated prevalence of STH across the three IUs. In Ese-Odo, the prevalence decreased to 25.8% (95% CI: 23.0–29.0) from 39% at baseline (d = -34%, p = 0.00). In Irele, prevalence dropped to 9.7% (95% CI: 7.6–12.0) from 51.3% at baseline (d = -81%, p = 0.00), and in Ile-Oluji, prevalence was reduced to 6.4% (95% CI: 4.6–8.7) from 23% at baseline (d = -72.2%, p = 0.00). The most prevalent STH species was Ascaris lumbricoides, with infection rates of 25.5%, 9.4%, and 6.4% in Ese-Odo, Irele, and Ile-Oluji, respectively, followed by Trichuris trichiura in Ese-Odo (2.7%) and Irele (0.4%), while hookworm infections were detected only in Irele (0.7%). The majority of infections were of low intensity in Ese-Odo (91.0%), Irele (96.8%), and Ile-Oluji (100%). Access to improved sanitation (17.7%, 54.9%, and 58.2%, p &lt; 0.05), improved water sources (24.5%, 66.1%, and 69.8%, p &lt; 0.05), and handwashing facilities (9.0%, 39.6%, and 25.4%) was suboptimal across Ese-Odo, Irele, and Ile-Oluji, respectively. Open defecation rates were high in Ese-Odo (54.2%), Irele (36.3%), and Ile-Oluji (34.3%). In Ese-Odo, significant risk factors for STH infection included the use of hand-pump boreholes (AOR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.23–4.88, p = 0.01), unprotected dug wells (AOR: 3.25, 95% CI: 0.96–11.36, p = 0.06), ventilated improved pit latrines (AOR: 3.95, 95% CI: 1.13–16.1, p = 0.04), pit latrines without a slab (AOR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.27–3.8, p = 0.01), and failure to use soap after defecation, both when soap was available (AOR: 12.09, 95% CI: 1.86–112.97, p = 0.01) and when soap was unavailable (AOR: 8.19, 95% CI: 1.73–76.65, p = 0.04). In Irele, access to protected dug wells was marginally significant (AOR: 1.79, 95% CI: 0.96–3.21, p = 0.06), while in Ile-Oluji, access to river water emerged as a significant risk factor (AOR: 7.97, 95% CI: 1.81–58.58, p = 0.02). The use of rainwater was found to be protective across all three IUs. These findings demonstrate significant progress in reducin","PeriodicalId":501071,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv - Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pediatric Kidney Injury in Communities Impacted by Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Etiology (CKDu): A Comprehensive Systematic Review of Epidemiologic Studies 病因不明的慢性肾病 (CKDu) 影响社区中的小儿肾损伤:流行病学研究的全面系统回顾
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.12.24313469
Anna Strasma, Anisha Gerber, Isabela Agi Maluli, Elizabeth R Blackwood, Sameera Gunasekara, P. Mangala C.S. De Silva, Nivedita Kamath, Marvin Gonzalez-Quiroz, Alison P Sanders, Christina Wyatt, Nishad Jayasundara
Background: Chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu) is a tubulointerstitial disease that disproportionately affects young, primarily male, agricultural workers in Mesoamerica and South Asia who lack traditional risk factors for kidney disease. Extensive research in adult populations suggests the etiology is complex and indicates that early childhood exposures could have an integral role.Objectives: To identify, summarize, and compare research in children living in CKDu endemic areas or with relevant CKDu-related exposures.Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in six databases for studies that report kidney health outcomes of pediatric populations living in proximity to CKDu-affected areas with no limitations on geography or study design. Studies were independently screened for inclusion and underwent quality assessment using the Appraisal Tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS) or the JBI Critical Appraisal Tool for Cohort Studies based on the study design by at least two authors. Data are compared narratively and graphically.Results: We included twenty peer-reviewed publications and two meeting abstracts from eight different countries. The most common study design involved cross-sectional analysis of biological specimens from children in an established CKDu endemic area. Marked decreases in estimated glomerular filtration rate were generally not identified and prevalence of albuminuria differed widely between countries. Novel urinary biomarkers frequently demonstrated subclinical kidney damage, although the specific biomarker(s) varied between studies. Epidemiologic factors associated with evidence of subclinical kidney damage in children included proximity to agriculture or agrichemicals. Despite heterogenous study outcomes, all studies concluded that there were signs of kidney injury in children living in CKDu endemic areas or with a CKDu-relevant environmental exposure.Conclusion: This systematic review suggests that the pathophysiologic process leading to CKDu may begin prior to adulthood. Future longitudinal research aimed at elucidating the multifaceted factors and exposures impacting entire communities, including children, is imperative for disease prevention strategies.
背景:病因不明的慢性肾脏病(CKDu)是一种肾小管间质疾病,中美洲和南亚的年轻农业工人(主要是男性)深受其害,他们缺乏肾脏病的传统风险因素。对成年人群的广泛研究表明,这种疾病的病因很复杂,并表明幼年时期的接触可能在其中起到不可或缺的作用:方法:对生活在 CKDu 流行地区或有相关 CKDu 暴露的儿童的研究进行识别、总结和比较:方法:在六个数据库中进行了系统性文献检索,以查找报告生活在 CKDu 疫区附近的儿科人群肾脏健康结果的研究,这些研究不受地理位置或研究设计的限制。研究经过独立筛选后纳入,并由至少两名作者根据研究设计使用横断面研究评估工具(AXIS)或JBI队列研究关键评估工具进行质量评估。数据以叙述和图表的方式进行比较:我们收录了来自 8 个不同国家的 20 篇同行评审出版物和 2 篇会议摘要。最常见的研究设计是对 CKDu 流行地区儿童的生物样本进行横断面分析。一般来说,没有发现估计肾小球滤过率明显下降的情况,白蛋白尿的患病率在不同国家之间差异很大。新的尿液生物标志物经常显示亚临床肾损伤,但具体的生物标志物因研究而异。与儿童亚临床肾损伤证据相关的流行病学因素包括靠近农业或农用化学品。尽管研究结果不尽相同,但所有研究都认为,生活在 CKDu 流行地区或接触过 CKDu 相关环境的儿童都有肾脏损伤的迹象:本系统综述表明,导致 CKDu 的病理生理过程可能始于成年之前。未来的纵向研究旨在阐明影响包括儿童在内的整个社区的多方面因素和暴露,这对于疾病预防策略来说是势在必行的。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Multimorbidity: Insights from Structural Equation Modeling in Colombia 评估 COVID-19 对多病症的影响:哥伦比亚结构方程模型的启示
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.11.24313500
Alexandra Porras-Ramírez, Alejandro Rico-Mendoza, Maria Fernanda Campos-Maya, Jairo Cardenas-Sanchez, Diego Penagos-Lopez, Ana Maria Gomez-Puentes, Natalia Delgado-Quiroz, Leandro Guarin-Muñoz, Juan Esteban Ortiz-Elejalde
Background Multimorbidity, the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases, poses significant challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. This study aims to assess the situation of multimorbidity in Colombia using structural equation models and to characterize multimorbidity by sex, age group, region, and health insurance regime between 2019 and 2023. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analytical study utilizing data from the Individual Health Service Provision Registry (RIPS) and other national databases, including the Unit of Payment by Capitation (UPC) Sufficiency Study Database. Structural equation models were employed to identify and analyze multimorbidity clusters among patients with two or more chronic diseases. Results The study revealed a multimorbidity prevalence of 61.5% in the general population. Hypertension emerged as the most prevalent chronic condition, frequently associated with diabetes and chronic kidney disease. Multimorbidity was more common in women and individuals affiliated with the contributory insurance regime. The study also identified significant variations in multimorbidity prevalence across different regions and age groups. Conclusions Multimorbidity is a prevalent issue in Colombia, with substantial variations by sex, age, and insurance regime. These findings underscore the need for tailored healthcare strategies to address the diverse needs of multimorbid patients. The results provide critical insights for health service planning and management, emphasizing the importance of continued research and policy development to mitigate the burden of chronic diseases and multimorbidity in Colombia.
背景 多重疾病(多种慢性病并存)给全球医疗保健系统带来了巨大挑战。本研究旨在利用结构方程模型评估哥伦比亚的多病症情况,并按性别、年龄组、地区和医疗保险制度分析 2019 年至 2023 年期间的多病症特征。方法 我们利用个人医疗服务提供登记处(RIPS)和其他国家数据库(包括按人头付费单位(UPC)充足性研究数据库)中的数据开展了一项横断面分析研究。研究采用了结构方程模型来识别和分析患有两种或两种以上慢性病的患者的多病症集群。研究结果表明,普通人群的多病患病率为 61.5%。高血压是最普遍的慢性病,经常与糖尿病和慢性肾病联系在一起。女性和加入缴费保险制度的人更容易患上多种疾病。研究还发现,不同地区和年龄组的多病症患病率存在显著差异。结论 在哥伦比亚,多病共存是一个普遍问题,不同性别、年龄和保险制度之间存在很大差异。这些研究结果表明,有必要制定有针对性的医疗保健策略,以满足多病患者的不同需求。研究结果为医疗服务的规划和管理提供了重要启示,强调了继续研究和制定政策以减轻哥伦比亚慢性病和多病症负担的重要性。
{"title":"Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Multimorbidity: Insights from Structural Equation Modeling in Colombia","authors":"Alexandra Porras-Ramírez, Alejandro Rico-Mendoza, Maria Fernanda Campos-Maya, Jairo Cardenas-Sanchez, Diego Penagos-Lopez, Ana Maria Gomez-Puentes, Natalia Delgado-Quiroz, Leandro Guarin-Muñoz, Juan Esteban Ortiz-Elejalde","doi":"10.1101/2024.09.11.24313500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.11.24313500","url":null,"abstract":"Background Multimorbidity, the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases, poses significant challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. This study aims to assess the situation of multimorbidity in Colombia using structural equation models and to characterize multimorbidity by sex, age group, region, and health insurance regime between 2019 and 2023. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analytical study utilizing data from the Individual Health Service Provision Registry (RIPS) and other national databases, including the Unit of Payment by Capitation (UPC) Sufficiency Study Database. Structural equation models were employed to identify and analyze multimorbidity clusters among patients with two or more chronic diseases. Results The study revealed a multimorbidity prevalence of 61.5% in the general population. Hypertension emerged as the most prevalent chronic condition, frequently associated with diabetes and chronic kidney disease. Multimorbidity was more common in women and individuals affiliated with the contributory insurance regime. The study also identified significant variations in multimorbidity prevalence across different regions and age groups. Conclusions Multimorbidity is a prevalent issue in Colombia, with substantial variations by sex, age, and insurance regime. These findings underscore the need for tailored healthcare strategies to address the diverse needs of multimorbid patients. The results provide critical insights for health service planning and management, emphasizing the importance of continued research and policy development to mitigate the burden of chronic diseases and multimorbidity in Colombia.","PeriodicalId":501071,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv - Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on sepsis incidence, etiology and hospitalization costs in France: a retrospective observational study COVID-19 大流行对法国败血症发病率、病因和住院费用的影响:一项回顾性观察研究
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.11.24311990
Marie Al Rahmoun, Alexandre Sabaté-Elabbadi, Didier Guillemot, Christian Brun-Buisson, Laurence Watier
Importance Sepsis is a serious medical condition that causes long-term morbidity and high mortality, annually affecting millions of people worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted its burden. Objective To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sepsis incidence, etiology and associated hospitalization costs in metropolitan France.Design, Setting and Participants This retrospective observational study used data drawn from a cohort of hospitalized sepsis patients in France s national healthcare database. Sepsis was identified through both explicit ICD-10 codes (E-sepsis) and implicit codes (I-sepsis). Participants included all patients aged 15 years or older hospitalized with E-sepsis or I-sepsis in metropolitan France between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. Main outcomes and measures Patient and hospital stay characteristics were described by sepsis type (E-sepsis, I-sepsis) and overall. The distribution of sepsis etiology was estimated for each year. Annual incidence rates were estimated overall and by sepsis type and etiology. Total and median per-stay hospitalization costs were calculated.Results The total age- and sex-standardized sepsis incidence rate per 100,000 increased slightly from 2018 (446, 95% CI 444.2 to 447.7) to 2020 (457, 95% CI 455.1 to 458.6) and then decreased in 2022 (382, 95% CI 380.2-383.7) (p <.0001). Incidence rates decreased for both E-sepsis and bacterial sepsis during the pandemic period, whereas I-sepsis incidence increased in 2020 and 2021, associated with a marked increase in viral sepsis and co-infections (p <.0001 for E- and I-sepsis). Viral sepsis represented about 10% of all sepsis cases during the pandemic, but only about 1% prior to the pandemic. Total sepsis-associated hospitalization costs and extra medication costs increased during the pandemic. Characteristics of patients and their hospital stays were overall stable over the five-year study period.Conclusion and Relevance The COVID-19 pandemic led to a higher burden of sepsis in French hospitals and an increase in hospital stay costs. Critically, our study highlights the need for introducing explicit viral sepsis codes within the ICD-11 classification system and for achieving a consensus on its definition in order to robustly estimate sepsis incidence.
重要性 败血症是一种严重的内科疾病,会导致长期发病和高死亡率,每年影响全球数百万人。COVID-19 大流行可能对其负担产生了影响。目的 估计 COVID-19 大流行对法国大都市败血症发病率、病因和相关住院费用的影响。脓毒症通过明确的 ICD-10 编码(E-sepsis)和隐含编码(I-sepsis)进行识别。参与者包括 2018 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 12 月 31 日期间在法国本土因 E 败血症或 I 败血症住院的所有 15 岁或以上患者。主要结果和测量方法 根据败血症类型(E-败血症、I-败血症)和总体情况描述患者和住院特征。估计每年败血症病因的分布情况。按败血症类型和病因估算年度总体发病率。结果 每 10 万人中年龄和性别标准化败血症总发病率从 2018 年(446,95% CI 444.2 至 447.7)到 2020 年(457,95% CI 455.1 至 458.6)略有上升,然后在 2022 年有所下降(382,95% CI 380.2-383.7)(p <.0001)。在大流行期间,E-败血症和细菌性败血症的发病率均有所下降,而 I-败血症的发病率在 2020 年和 2021 年有所上升,这与病毒性败血症和合并感染的显著增加有关(E-败血症和 I-败血症的 p <.0001)。在大流行期间,病毒性败血症约占所有败血症病例的 10%,而在大流行之前仅占约 1%。在大流行期间,与败血症相关的住院总费用和额外药物费用都有所增加。在为期五年的研究期间,患者的特征和住院时间总体上保持稳定。重要的是,我们的研究强调,有必要在 ICD-11 分类系统中引入明确的病毒性败血症代码,并就其定义达成共识,以便有力地估计败血症的发病率。
{"title":"Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on sepsis incidence, etiology and hospitalization costs in France: a retrospective observational study","authors":"Marie Al Rahmoun, Alexandre Sabaté-Elabbadi, Didier Guillemot, Christian Brun-Buisson, Laurence Watier","doi":"10.1101/2024.09.11.24311990","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.11.24311990","url":null,"abstract":"Importance Sepsis is a serious medical condition that causes long-term morbidity and high mortality, annually affecting millions of people worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted its burden. Objective To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sepsis incidence, etiology and associated hospitalization costs in metropolitan France.\u0000Design, Setting and Participants This retrospective observational study used data drawn from a cohort of hospitalized sepsis patients in France s national healthcare database. Sepsis was identified through both explicit ICD-10 codes (E-sepsis) and implicit codes (I-sepsis). Participants included all patients aged 15 years or older hospitalized with E-sepsis or I-sepsis in metropolitan France between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. Main outcomes and measures Patient and hospital stay characteristics were described by sepsis type (E-sepsis, I-sepsis) and overall. The distribution of sepsis etiology was estimated for each year. Annual incidence rates were estimated overall and by sepsis type and etiology. Total and median per-stay hospitalization costs were calculated.\u0000Results The total age- and sex-standardized sepsis incidence rate per 100,000 increased slightly from 2018 (446, 95% CI 444.2 to 447.7) to 2020 (457, 95% CI 455.1 to 458.6) and then decreased in 2022 (382, 95% CI 380.2-383.7) (p &lt;.0001). Incidence rates decreased for both E-sepsis and bacterial sepsis during the pandemic period, whereas I-sepsis incidence increased in 2020 and 2021, associated with a marked increase in viral sepsis and co-infections (p &lt;.0001 for E- and I-sepsis). Viral sepsis represented about 10% of all sepsis cases during the pandemic, but only about 1% prior to the pandemic. Total sepsis-associated hospitalization costs and extra medication costs increased during the pandemic. Characteristics of patients and their hospital stays were overall stable over the five-year study period.\u0000Conclusion and Relevance The COVID-19 pandemic led to a higher burden of sepsis in French hospitals and an increase in hospital stay costs. Critically, our study highlights the need for introducing explicit viral sepsis codes within the ICD-11 classification system and for achieving a consensus on its definition in order to robustly estimate sepsis incidence.","PeriodicalId":501071,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv - Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Steroid Hormone Biosynthesis and Dietary Related Metabolites associated with Excessive Daytime Sleepiness 与白天过度嗜睡有关的类固醇激素生物合成和膳食相关代谢物
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.12.24313561
Tariq Faquih, Kaitlin S Potts, Bing Yu, Robert Kaplan, Carmen R. Isasi, Qibin Qi, Kent Taylor, Peter Y. Liu, Russell Tracy, Craig Johnson, Steve Rich, Clary B Clish, Robert E Gerszten, Jerome Rotter, Susan Redline, Tamar Sofer, Heming Wang
BackgroundExcessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is a complex sleep problem that affects approximately 33% of the United States population. Although EDS usually occurs in conjunction with insufficient sleep, and other sleep and circadian disorders, recent studies have shown unique genetic markers and metabolic pathways underlying EDS. Here, we aimed to further elucidate the biological profile of EDS using large scale single- and pathway-level metabolomics analyses. MethodsMetabolomics data were available for 877 metabolites in 6,071 individuals from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) and EDS was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) questionnaire. We performed linear regression for each metabolite on continuous ESS, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, and physiological confounders, and in sex specific groups. Subsequently, gaussian graphical modelling was performed coupled with pathway and enrichment analyses to generate a holistic interactive network of the metabolomic profile of EDS associations. FindingsWe identified seven metabolites belonging to steroids, sphingomyelin, and long chain fatty acids sub-pathways in the primary model associated with EDS, and an additional three metabolites in the male-specific analysis. The identified metabolites particularly played a role in steroid hormone biosynthesis. InterpretationOur findings indicate that an EDS metabolomic profile is characterized by endogenous and dietary metabolites within the steroid hormone biosynthesis pathway, with some pathways that differ by sex. Our findings identify potential pathways to target for addressing the causes or consequences of EDS and related sleep disorders. Funding Details regarding funding supporting this work and all studies involved are provided in the acknowledgments section.
背景 白天过度嗜睡(EDS)是一种复杂的睡眠问题,影响着大约 33% 的美国人口。虽然 EDS 通常与睡眠不足以及其他睡眠和昼夜节律紊乱同时发生,但最近的研究显示了 EDS 潜在的独特遗传标记和代谢途径。在此,我们旨在通过大规模的单一和通路级代谢组学分析,进一步阐明 EDS 的生物学特征。方法:我们从西班牙裔社区健康研究/拉丁裔研究(HCHS/SOL)中获得了 6071 人的 877 种代谢物的代谢组学数据,并使用埃普沃思嗜睡量表(ESS)问卷对 EDS 进行了评估。我们对每种代谢物的连续ESS进行了线性回归,调整了人口统计学、生活方式和生理混杂因素,并按性别分组。随后,我们进行了高斯图形建模,并结合通路和富集分析,生成了 EDS 关联代谢组学概况的整体互动网络。研究结果我们在与 EDS 相关的主要模型中发现了属于类固醇、鞘磷脂和长链脂肪酸子通路的 7 种代谢物,并在男性特异性分析中发现了另外 3 种代谢物。已确定的代谢物尤其在类固醇激素的生物合成中发挥作用。解读我们的研究结果表明,EDS 代谢组学特征是类固醇激素生物合成途径中的内源性和膳食代谢物,其中一些途径因性别而异。我们的研究结果确定了解决 EDS 和相关睡眠障碍的原因或后果的潜在途径。资金支持 有关支持这项工作和所有相关研究的资金详情,请参阅致谢部分。
{"title":"Steroid Hormone Biosynthesis and Dietary Related Metabolites associated with Excessive Daytime Sleepiness","authors":"Tariq Faquih, Kaitlin S Potts, Bing Yu, Robert Kaplan, Carmen R. Isasi, Qibin Qi, Kent Taylor, Peter Y. Liu, Russell Tracy, Craig Johnson, Steve Rich, Clary B Clish, Robert E Gerszten, Jerome Rotter, Susan Redline, Tamar Sofer, Heming Wang","doi":"10.1101/2024.09.12.24313561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.12.24313561","url":null,"abstract":"Background\u0000Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is a complex sleep problem that affects approximately 33% of the United States population. Although EDS usually occurs in conjunction with insufficient sleep, and other sleep and circadian disorders, recent studies have shown unique genetic markers and metabolic pathways underlying EDS. Here, we aimed to further elucidate the biological profile of EDS using large scale single- and pathway-level metabolomics analyses. Methods\u0000Metabolomics data were available for 877 metabolites in 6,071 individuals from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) and EDS was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) questionnaire. We performed linear regression for each metabolite on continuous ESS, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, and physiological confounders, and in sex specific groups. Subsequently, gaussian graphical modelling was performed coupled with pathway and enrichment analyses to generate a holistic interactive network of the metabolomic profile of EDS associations. Findings\u0000We identified seven metabolites belonging to steroids, sphingomyelin, and long chain fatty acids sub-pathways in the primary model associated with EDS, and an additional three metabolites in the male-specific analysis. The identified metabolites particularly played a role in steroid hormone biosynthesis. Interpretation\u0000Our findings indicate that an EDS metabolomic profile is characterized by endogenous and dietary metabolites within the steroid hormone biosynthesis pathway, with some pathways that differ by sex. Our findings identify potential pathways to target for addressing the causes or consequences of EDS and related sleep disorders. Funding Details regarding funding supporting this work and all studies involved are provided in the acknowledgments section.","PeriodicalId":501071,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv - Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Sex-specific Mendelian Randomization-Phenome-Wide Association Study of Body Mass Index 身体质量指数的性别特异性孟德尔随机化-全基因组关联研究
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.12.24313524
Zhu Liduzi Jiesisibieke, Io Ieong Chan, Jack Chun Man Ng, C Mary Schooling
Background: Trials of incretins are making it increasingly clear that body mass index (BMI) is linked to several diseases throughout life, but trials cannot provide a comprehensive assessment of the role of BMI in health-related attributes for men and women. To systematically investigate the role of BMI, we conducted a sex-specific Mendelian randomization-phenome-wide association study.
背景:有关增量蛋白的试验越来越清楚地表明,体重指数(BMI)与人一生中的多种疾病有关,但这些试验无法全面评估 BMI 在男性和女性健康相关属性中的作用。为了系统地研究 BMI 的作用,我们进行了一项性别特异性孟德尔随机全表型关联研究。
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引用次数: 0
Adjusting for specificity of symptoms reveals higher prevalence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections than previously estimated 根据症状的特异性进行调整后发现,无症状的 SARS-CoV-2 感染率比以前估计的要高
Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.11.24313462
Akshay Tiwari, Shreya Chowdhury, Ananthu James, Budhaditya Chatterjee, Narendra M Dixit
Accurate estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, ψ, have been important for understanding and forecasting the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two-part population-based surveys, which test the infection status and also assess symptoms, have been used to estimate ψ. Here, we identified a widely prevalent confounding effect that compromises these estimates and devised a formalism to adjust for it. The symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection are not all specific to SARS-CoV-2. They can be triggered by a host of other conditions, such as influenza virus infection. By not accounting for the source of the symptoms, the surveys may misclassify individuals experiencing symptoms from other conditions as symptomatic for SARS-CoV-2, thus underestimating ψ. We developed a rigorous formalism to adjust for this confounding effect and derived a facile formula for the adjusted prevalence, ψadj. We applied it to data from 50 published serosurveys, conducted on the general populations from 28 nations. We found that ψadj was significantly higher than the reported prevalence, ψc (P=3×10-8). The median ψadj was ~60%, whereas the median ψc was ~40%. In several instances, ψadj exceeded ψc by >100%. These findings suggest that asymptomatic infections have been far more prevalent than previously estimated. Our formalism can be readily deployed to obtain more accurate estimates of ψ from standard population-based surveys, without additional data collection. The findings have implications for understanding COVID-19 epidemiology and devising more effective interventions.
对无症状的 SARS-CoV-2 感染率ψ进行准确估计,对于了解和预测 COVID-19 的流行轨迹非常重要。基于人群的两部分调查用于估算ψ,这些调查既检测感染状况,也评估症状。在这里,我们发现了一个广泛存在的混杂效应,它影响了这些估计值,并设计了一种形式来调整它。与 SARS-CoV-2 感染相关的症状并非都是 SARS-CoV-2 所特有的。感染流感病毒等其他疾病也会引发这些症状。如果不考虑症状的来源,调查可能会将出现其他症状的人误认为是感染了 SARS-CoV-2,从而低估ψ。我们开发了一种严格的形式主义来调整这种混杂效应,并推导出一个简便的调整流行率 ψadj 公式。 我们将其应用于 50 项已发表的血清调查数据,这些调查针对 28 个国家的普通人群。我们发现ψadj明显高于报告的流行率ψc(P=3×10-8)。ψadj的中位数约为60%,而ψc的中位数约为40%。有几次,ψadj比ψc高出>100%。这些发现表明,无症状感染远比以前估计的更为普遍。我们的形式主义可以很容易地用于从标准的人口调查中获得更准确的ψ估计值,而无需额外的数据收集。这些发现对了解 COVID-19 流行病学和制定更有效的干预措施具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic HIV risk differentiation among youth: Validation of a tool for prioritization of prevention in East Zimbabwe 青年中的动态艾滋病毒风险区分:津巴布韦东部优先预防工具的验证
Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1101/2024.09.10.24312897
Louisa R Moorhouse, Simon Gregson, Jeffrey W Imai-Eaton, Justin Mayini, Tawanda Dadirai, Phyllis Magoge-Mandizvidza, Rufurwokuda Maswera, Simbarashe Mabaya, Rachel Baggaley, Daniel Low-Beer, Constance Nyamukapa, Shona Dalal
BackgroundDifferentiating risk for HIV infection is important for providing focussed prevention options to individuals. We conducted a longitudinal study to validate a risk-differentiation tool for predicting HIV or HSV-2 acquisition among HIV-negative youth.SettingPopulation-based household survey in east Zimbabwe.MethodsHIV and HSV-2 status and HIV behavioural risk factors were assessed in two surveys conducted 12 months apart among young people. Associations between risk-behaviours and combined HIV/HSV-2 incident infection were estimated using proportional hazards models. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of risk-differentiation questions in predicting HIV/HSV-2 acquisition and quantified changes between surveys among low, medium, and high-risk categories. Results In total, 44 HIV/HSV-2 seroconversions were observed in 1812 person-years of follow up (2.43/100PY, 95%CI: 1.71-3.15); 50% of incident cases reported never having had sex at baseline. Risk of HIV/HSV-2 acquisition was higher for those reporting non-regular partners (women: HR=2.71, 95% CI:1.12-6.54, men: HR=1.37, 95%CI: 0.29-6.38) and those reporting having a partner with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) (HR=7.62 (1.22-47.51). Adding a question on non-regular partnerships increased tool sensitivity from 18.2% to 38.6%, and further to 77.3% when restricted to those who had ever had sex. Individual risk category increased for 28% of men and 17% of women over 12-months.Conclusion The refined risk differentiation tool identified a high proportion of youth at risk of HIV acquisition. Despite this, half of incident infections were among individuals who reported no prior sexual activity. The shifting patterns of risk behaviours underscore the need for dynamic prevention engagement strategies in high HIV prevalence or incidence settings.
背景区分 HIV 感染风险对于为个人提供有针对性的预防方案非常重要。我们进行了一项纵向研究,以验证用于预测 HIV 阴性青少年感染 HIV 或 HSV-2 的风险区分工具。我们使用比例危险模型估算了风险行为与 HIV/HSV-2 合并感染之间的关系。我们计算了风险区分问题在预测 HIV/HSV-2 感染方面的敏感性和特异性,并量化了低、中、高风险类别在两次调查之间的变化。结果 在 1812 人/年的跟踪调查中,共观察到 44 例 HIV/HSV-2 血清转换病例(2.43/100PY,95%CI:1.71-3.15);50% 的病例报告在基线时从未发生过性行为。报告有非固定性伴侣者(女性:HR=2.71,95%CI:1.12-6.54;男性:HR=1.37,95%CI:0.29-6.38)和报告有性传播感染(STI)性伴侣者感染 HIV/HSV-2 的风险更高(HR=7.62(1.22-47.51))。增加一个关于非定期性伴侣关系的问题后,工具敏感度从 18.2% 提高到 38.6%,如果仅限于曾经有过性行为的人群,敏感度则进一步提高到 77.3%。在 12 个月内,28% 的男性和 17% 的女性的个人风险类别有所增加。尽管如此,仍有一半的感染病例发生在报告之前没有性行为的人群中。风险行为模式的变化凸显了在艾滋病高流行或高发病率环境中采取动态预防参与策略的必要性。
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medRxiv - Epidemiology
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