An asymmetric DCC – GJR – GARCH model is applied to the Turkish and US REIT markets in order to estimate the time-varying correlations between the REIT and stock markets. Using these estimated correlations, we investigate the impact of dividend payouts on the diversification potential of REITs for stock market investors. Our choice of the Turkish REIT market is based on its unique REIT dividend policy, while US data provide a benchmark for comparison. This study has a number of motivations and contributions that make it a worthwhile undertaking. First, we document that REIT dividend policy is related to the correlation between REIT and stock markets. Dividend paying REITs have lower correlations with stock markets, which makes the REIT market a viable portfolio diversifier. Second, we confirm that REITs and stock prices cointegrated more closely due to the 2008 global financial crisis. We additionally document that a similar effect was also present in the correlation during the global Covid-19 pandemic crisis. It appears that REIT and stock markets become more correlated during times of financial turmoil and diversification opportunities are diminished. Finally, we document that there is a long-term trend in the time-varying correlations between REIT and stock markets. Türkiye has been experiencing a negative trend in this regard, while the US has been experiencing a positive trend.
{"title":"The impact of dividend payout policies on real estate market diversification","authors":"Metin Ilbasmıs, Marc Gronwald, Yuan Zhao","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2944","url":null,"abstract":"An asymmetric DCC – GJR – GARCH model is applied to the Turkish and US REIT markets in order to estimate the time-varying correlations between the REIT and stock markets. Using these estimated correlations, we investigate the impact of dividend payouts on the diversification potential of REITs for stock market investors. Our choice of the Turkish REIT market is based on its unique REIT dividend policy, while US data provide a benchmark for comparison. This study has a number of motivations and contributions that make it a worthwhile undertaking. First, we document that REIT dividend policy is related to the correlation between REIT and stock markets. Dividend paying REITs have lower correlations with stock markets, which makes the REIT market a viable portfolio diversifier. Second, we confirm that REITs and stock prices cointegrated more closely due to the 2008 global financial crisis. We additionally document that a similar effect was also present in the correlation during the global Covid-19 pandemic crisis. It appears that REIT and stock markets become more correlated during times of financial turmoil and diversification opportunities are diminished. Finally, we document that there is a long-term trend in the time-varying correlations between REIT and stock markets. Türkiye has been experiencing a negative trend in this regard, while the US has been experiencing a positive trend.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"226 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140020066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Studies from previous literature has exhausted the direct relationship between FinTech innovations and economic development with mixed findings. Thus, the current study investigates the mediating effect of financial inclusion on FinTech innovations and economic development in the Benin Republic. The study is survey research that used a questionnaire from bank customers and residents of suburb areas with a sample size of 357 respondents. The study employed a regression-based data analysis technique using SPSS and SEM-PLS 3 software. The results indicate a positive and significant relationship between FinTech and economic development. In addition, there is a positive and significant association between financial inclusion and economic development. The study also reports a positive and significant mediating role of financial inclusion in the relationship between financial technology and economic development. Consequently, the research confirms that financial inclusion serves as a crucial mechanism through which financial technology influences economic development. In light of these findings, it is recommended that efforts to enhance financial inclusion in the Benin Republic should specifically focus on fostering FinTech innovations to support sustainable economic development.
{"title":"Mediating effect of financial inclusion on FinTech innovations and economic development in West Africa: Evidence from the Benin Republic","authors":"Guillaume Edou Tchidi, Wei Zhang","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2954","url":null,"abstract":"Studies from previous literature has exhausted the direct relationship between FinTech innovations and economic development with mixed findings. Thus, the current study investigates the mediating effect of financial inclusion on FinTech innovations and economic development in the Benin Republic. The study is survey research that used a questionnaire from bank customers and residents of suburb areas with a sample size of 357 respondents. The study employed a regression-based data analysis technique using SPSS and SEM-PLS 3 software. The results indicate a positive and significant relationship between FinTech and economic development. In addition, there is a positive and significant association between financial inclusion and economic development. The study also reports a positive and significant mediating role of financial inclusion in the relationship between financial technology and economic development. Consequently, the research confirms that financial inclusion serves as a crucial mechanism through which financial technology influences economic development. In light of these findings, it is recommended that efforts to enhance financial inclusion in the Benin Republic should specifically focus on fostering FinTech innovations to support sustainable economic development.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140006859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) claims that a monetarily sovereign government like the US is never confronted by a real budget constraint since it can always monetise any deficit by printing money; and this need not be inflationary since it can always drain excess money from circulation by taxing. MMT economists claim that their theory is in line with the behaviour of the US data since the Financial Crisis, and argue that policy in the post‐COVID recovery period should continue to be guided by MMT principles. We set out the MMT policy rules within a full DSGE model and test this model version against the data by indirect inference, side by side with a standard New Keynesian rival version, to evaluate these claims. We find that the MMT model is rejected by the data, while the standard model is not; and that the MMT policy rules imply a material loss of welfare compared to the standard ones.
{"title":"Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model","authors":"Chunping Liu, Patrick Minford, Zhirong Ou","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2955","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2955","url":null,"abstract":"Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) claims that a monetarily sovereign government like the US is never confronted by a real budget constraint since it can always monetise any deficit by printing money; and this need not be inflationary since it can always drain excess money from circulation by taxing. MMT economists claim that their theory is in line with the behaviour of the US data since the Financial Crisis, and argue that policy in the post‐COVID recovery period should continue to be guided by MMT principles. We set out the MMT policy rules within a full DSGE model and test this model version against the data by indirect inference, side by side with a standard New Keynesian rival version, to evaluate these claims. We find that the MMT model is rejected by the data, while the standard model is not; and that the MMT policy rules imply a material loss of welfare compared to the standard ones.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140026233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Microfinance institutions (MFIs) have evolved in different and complex ways to solve various market frictions, with some of them providing a wide range of financial products and using different lending technologies to reach poor and underserved populations. As a result, some MFIs are more efficient than others, but are efficiency gains aligned with risk management practices? The specific characteristics of the microfinance industry make the answer to this question less obvious than that of commercial banks. This paper tries to shed light on these issues by analysing the efficiency and risk management of MFIs and describing the potential implications of these relationships for the microfinance industry. After considering several measures of financial risk management ratios commonly used in the microfinance literature, our results show that cost efficiency improves asset quality and solvency of MFIs, but also reduces the need for holding idle cash or liquid assets. The results of this paper can help academics, policymakers, and regulators to better understand the impact of cost efficiency on financial risks management practices in the microfinance industry.
{"title":"Efficiency and financial risk management practices of microfinance institutions","authors":"Konstantinos N. Baltas, José M. Liñares‐Zegarra","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2956","url":null,"abstract":"Microfinance institutions (MFIs) have evolved in different and complex ways to solve various market frictions, with some of them providing a wide range of financial products and using different lending technologies to reach poor and underserved populations. As a result, some MFIs are more efficient than others, but are efficiency gains aligned with risk management practices? The specific characteristics of the microfinance industry make the answer to this question less obvious than that of commercial banks. This paper tries to shed light on these issues by analysing the efficiency and risk management of MFIs and describing the potential implications of these relationships for the microfinance industry. After considering several measures of financial risk management ratios commonly used in the microfinance literature, our results show that cost efficiency improves asset quality and solvency of MFIs, but also reduces the need for holding idle cash or liquid assets. The results of this paper can help academics, policymakers, and regulators to better understand the impact of cost efficiency on financial risks management practices in the microfinance industry.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140026211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ishmael Tingbani, Samuel Salia, Christopher A. Hartwell, Alhassan Yahaya
This paper presents evidence of the impact of AI investment on firm growth and how the relationship is sensitive to labour market conditions. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on 1950 unique American firms over 1996–2016, we show that a 10% increase in AI investment leads to an increase in firm growth by 0.04%. However, this result is highly sensitive to labour market conditions, as labour productivity can positively impact firm growth, but labour cost and labour share negatively influence firm growth. These results offer original insights into an essential channel via which investment in AI may mediate firm growth.
{"title":"Looking in the rear-view mirror: Evidence from artificial intelligence investment, labour market conditions and firm growth","authors":"Ishmael Tingbani, Samuel Salia, Christopher A. Hartwell, Alhassan Yahaya","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2945","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents evidence of the impact of AI investment on firm growth and how the relationship is sensitive to labour market conditions. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on 1950 unique American firms over 1996–2016, we show that a 10% increase in AI investment leads to an increase in firm growth by 0.04%. However, this result is highly sensitive to labour market conditions, as labour productivity can positively impact firm growth, but labour cost and labour share negatively influence firm growth. These results offer original insights into an essential channel via which investment in AI may mediate firm growth.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140007097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyses the financialisation of the carbon market and its possible external shocks, with a focus on the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), by investigating its quantile dependence and influence paths from stage three onwards. To achieve this, we construct a theoretical model of five factors related to the financialisation of the carbon market and empirically investigate the significant influencing factors and their influence paths under different quantiles using quantile group Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and quantile regression models. We find that the price of WTI crude oil and the market risk-aversion index have a significant effect on the financialisation of the EU ETS at extremely high quantiles. Factors such as the WTI crude oil price, precipitation, average share price of thermal power companies, and the federal funds rate have a statistically significant impact on the medium quantiles. However, we find no significant influence at extremely low quantiles, indicating that policy instruments are necessary to effectively regulate the operation of the carbon market. Therefore, it is crucial for carbon market stakeholders to pay close attention to these factors and adapt to changing market conditions.
{"title":"Financialisation of the European Union Emissions Trading System European Union Emissions Trading System and its influencing factors in quantiles","authors":"Ping Wei, Jingzi Zhou, Xiaohang Ren, Luu Duc Toan Huynh","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2950","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyses the financialisation of the carbon market and its possible external shocks, with a focus on the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), by investigating its quantile dependence and influence paths from stage three onwards. To achieve this, we construct a theoretical model of five factors related to the financialisation of the carbon market and empirically investigate the significant influencing factors and their influence paths under different quantiles using quantile group Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and quantile regression models. We find that the price of WTI crude oil and the market risk-aversion index have a significant effect on the financialisation of the EU ETS at extremely high quantiles. Factors such as the WTI crude oil price, precipitation, average share price of thermal power companies, and the federal funds rate have a statistically significant impact on the medium quantiles. However, we find no significant influence at extremely low quantiles, indicating that policy instruments are necessary to effectively regulate the operation of the carbon market. Therefore, it is crucial for carbon market stakeholders to pay close attention to these factors and adapt to changing market conditions.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139927176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This work explores the role of weather shocks, measured as temperature deviations from their normal, in affecting GDP growth through a panel of 148 countries, spanning the period 1960–2019 and a panel quantile approach. The findings show that GDP growth is negatively affected by such deviations at higher quantiles, with the results receiving robust support from three alternative methodologies. The analysis also identifies two channels through which the findings receive further support, such as, the ‘heat-exposed’ sectors effect on labour productivity, and the impact of temperature deviations on the capital accumulation capacity. The results also survive the role of the country development status. Finally, the analysis identifies the role of the countries' geographical location. The results can have substantial merit for policymakers in terms of the role of climate conditions in the growth process, especially in poor countries.
本研究通过一个包含 148 个国家（时间跨度为 1960-2019 年）的面板和面板量化方法，探讨了天气冲击（以气温偏离正常值来衡量）在影响 GDP 增长方面的作用。研究结果表明，在较高的量值范围内，国内生产总值的增长会受到这种偏差的负面影响，三种替代方法都有力地支持了这一结果。分析还确定了两个可进一步支持研究结果的渠道，如 "热暴露 "部门对劳动生产率的影响，以及温度偏差对资本积累能力的影响。结果还证明了国家发展状况的作用。最后，分析确定了国家地理位置的作用。就气候条件在经济增长过程中的作用而言，这些结果对政策制定者有很大帮助，尤其是在贫穷国家。
{"title":"The asymmetric role of temperature deviations in economic growth: Fresh evidence from global countries and panel quantile estimates","authors":"Nicholas Apergis, Mobeen Ur Rehman","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2952","url":null,"abstract":"This work explores the role of weather shocks, measured as temperature deviations from their normal, in affecting GDP growth through a panel of 148 countries, spanning the period 1960–2019 and a panel quantile approach. The findings show that GDP growth is negatively affected by such deviations at higher quantiles, with the results receiving robust support from three alternative methodologies. The analysis also identifies two channels through which the findings receive further support, such as, the ‘heat-exposed’ sectors effect on labour productivity, and the impact of temperature deviations on the capital accumulation capacity. The results also survive the role of the country development status. Finally, the analysis identifies the role of the countries' geographical location. The results can have substantial merit for policymakers in terms of the role of climate conditions in the growth process, especially in poor countries.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139765480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study endeavours to discern the pivotal factors contributing to the success of initial coin offerings (ICOs) on a global scale. Through a comprehensive analysis of ICO characteristics, we explore the intricate relationship between these attributes and the ultimate success of ICO projects. Our empirical findings show that projects that have secured presale funding, coupled with comprehensive token sale information, exhibit a markedly increased likelihood of achieving ICO success. We also employ the automated machine learning method to offer valuable insights into the potential determinants of ICO success. Furthermore, we delve into the underlying rationale behind ICO success by employing SHAP values to discern the relative importance of various ICO characteristics and examine the correlations among these attributes. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of ICO dynamics and offers empirical evidence regarding the critical factors that shape the success of ICO projects. Such insights hold significant implications for both industry practitioners and policymakers seeking to navigate the evolving landscape of blockchain-based fundraising initiatives.
{"title":"Fundamental analysis of Initial Coin Offerings","authors":"Yunxia Bai, Bofu Zhang","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2948","url":null,"abstract":"This study endeavours to discern the pivotal factors contributing to the success of initial coin offerings (ICOs) on a global scale. Through a comprehensive analysis of ICO characteristics, we explore the intricate relationship between these attributes and the ultimate success of ICO projects. Our empirical findings show that projects that have secured presale funding, coupled with comprehensive token sale information, exhibit a markedly increased likelihood of achieving ICO success. We also employ the automated machine learning method to offer valuable insights into the potential determinants of ICO success. Furthermore, we delve into the underlying rationale behind ICO success by employing SHAP values to discern the relative importance of various ICO characteristics and examine the correlations among these attributes. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of ICO dynamics and offers empirical evidence regarding the critical factors that shape the success of ICO projects. Such insights hold significant implications for both industry practitioners and policymakers seeking to navigate the evolving landscape of blockchain-based fundraising initiatives.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139765407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we shed light on the impact of leverage on efficiency by introducing a new banking efficiency indicator that includes efficiency and stability conditions. This indicator relies on the leverage as a proxy of a bank's risk and stability. Banks' leverage played an important role in the last financial crash as well as in the Basel III regulatory rules. The results of the econometric investigation using a large sample of American commercial banks show that profit efficiency indicators including leverage are better predictors of future profits than current indicators, including other measures of bank risk. This is particularly evident for the period during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Our findings have important policy implications, particularly in light of the recently implemented optimal leverage ratio.
在本文中，我们通过引入一个包含效率和稳定性条件的新银行效率指标来阐明杠杆对效率的影响。该指标以杠杆率作为银行风险和稳定性的替代指标。银行的杠杆率在上一次金融风暴以及巴塞尔协议 III 监管规则中发挥了重要作用。使用大量美国商业银行样本进行计量经济学调查的结果表明，包括杠杆率在内的利润效率指标比包括其他银行风险指标在内的当前指标更能预测未来利润。这一点在 2007-2009 年金融危机期间尤为明显。我们的研究结果具有重要的政策含义，特别是考虑到最近实施的最优杠杆率。
{"title":"The nexus between bank efficiency and leverage","authors":"Konstantinos N. Baltas","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2941","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we shed light on the impact of leverage on efficiency by introducing a new banking efficiency indicator that includes efficiency and stability conditions. This indicator relies on the leverage as a proxy of a bank's risk and stability. Banks' leverage played an important role in the last financial crash as well as in the Basel III regulatory rules. The results of the econometric investigation using a large sample of American commercial banks show that profit efficiency indicators including leverage are better predictors of future profits than current indicators, including other measures of bank risk. This is particularly evident for the period during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Our findings have important policy implications, particularly in light of the recently implemented optimal leverage ratio.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139765482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainty on real wages. Employing UK data from 2000: Q1 to 2022: Q2 and a partial Nonlinear-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework, we find that war-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty have a statistically significant though mild positive impact on real wages. We find that domestic factors including economic policy uncertainty, productivity, economic growth, unemployment, inflation expectations and unionization play a stronger role in affecting real wages. Our findings suggest that the direct effects of war-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty on real wages are temporary. From a policy perspective, the course of real wages will depend more on inflation expectations, productivity and most importantly unionization. We conclude that if real wages in the UK are to rise on a consistent basis then workers and particularly unions will have to gain more bargaining leverage.
{"title":"War-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty: Implications for real wages","authors":"Muhammad Ali Nasir, David Spencer","doi":"10.1002/ijfe.2939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2939","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainty on real wages. Employing UK data from 2000: Q1 to 2022: Q2 and a partial Nonlinear-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework, we find that war-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty have a statistically significant though mild positive impact on real wages. We find that domestic factors including economic policy uncertainty, productivity, economic growth, unemployment, inflation expectations and unionization play a stronger role in affecting real wages. Our findings suggest that the direct effects of war-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty on real wages are temporary. From a policy perspective, the course of real wages will depend more on inflation expectations, productivity and most importantly unionization. We conclude that if real wages in the UK are to rise on a consistent basis then workers and particularly unions will have to gain more bargaining leverage.","PeriodicalId":501193,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Finance and Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139677998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：