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The S&P 500 sectoral indices responses to economic news sentiment 标准普尔 500 行业指数对经济新闻情绪的反应
Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2989
Mohamed Arbi Madani
This study explores the dynamic relationship between economic news sentiment and the US stock market using a non‐linear empirical framework. The analysis focuses on both sectoral indices and the aggregate stock market index from November 2011 to November 2021. Using causality tests and a rolling window detrended cross‐correlation coefficient, the study reveals several key findings. First, the causal effect of investor sentiment on sectoral returns varies over time, with each sector responding differently. Second, while no evidence of dependence exists for time scales less than 2 months, a positive relationship emerges for time scales greater than 6 months, except for the utilities sector, which is found to be negative. Third, the study shows that the relationships between all pairs of variables are time‐dependent. Finally, economic news sentiment might have a varying impact on market inefficiency over different periods, making it challenging to predict market behaviour based on sentiment data.
本研究采用非线性实证框架探讨了经济新闻情绪与美国股市之间的动态关系。分析侧重于 2011 年 11 月至 2021 年 11 月期间的行业指数和股市总指数。利用因果关系检验和滚动窗口去趋势交叉相关系数,研究揭示了几个重要发现。首先,投资者情绪对行业回报率的因果效应随着时间的推移而变化,每个行业都有不同的反应。其次,虽然在小于 2 个月的时间范围内没有证据表明存在依赖关系,但在大于 6 个月的时间范围内出现了正相关关系,只有公用事业部门除外,因为该部门被发现是负相关的。第三,研究表明,所有变量之间的关系都与时间有关。最后,经济新闻情绪可能在不同时期对市场低效率产生不同影响,因此根据情绪数据预测市场行为具有挑战性。
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引用次数: 0
How underinvestment reduces underpricing 投资不足如何减少定价不足
Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2987
Marco Bade, Hans Hirth
We develop an economic model demonstrating that firms can benefit from committing to underinvestment. The model considers a firm's IPO, secondary‐market trading and subsequent investment decision. We analyse the conditions under which underinvestment can paradoxically be advantageous despite reducing the fundamental value of the firm. The benefit of committing to underinvest post‐IPO is expressed in reduced underpricing and thus a higher valuation during the IPO. We furthermore show that the firm may commit to an inefficient investment policy by appointing a manager with biased expectations or risk aversion. Our findings imply that, under certain conditions, firms are better off relying on biased managers when their initial outlook is poor, but risk‐averse managers when their initial outlook is good.
我们建立了一个经济模型,证明企业可以从承诺投资不足中获益。该模型考虑了企业的首次公开募股、二级市场交易和后续投资决策。我们分析了在哪些条件下,尽管会降低公司的基本价值,但投资不足反而会带来好处。承诺在首次公开募股后进行投资不足的好处表现为减少定价不足,从而在首次公开募股期间获得更高的估值。此外,我们还发现,公司可能会任命一位预期或风险规避有偏差的经理人,从而承诺采取低效的投资政策。我们的研究结果表明,在某些条件下,当企业的初始前景不佳时,企业更适合依赖有偏见的经理人,而当企业的初始前景良好时,则更适合依赖风险规避型经理人。
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引用次数: 0
Are financial sanctions truly “smart”? Evidence from the perspective of cross‐border capital flows 金融制裁真的 "聪明 "吗?从跨境资本流动角度看证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2982
Yang Liu, Wei Lang, Aihua Wang
Few studies are found to examine the impact of financial sanctions on cross‐border capital flows. Using a panel data from 48 countries from 2000 to 2019, this paper aims to examine the impact of financial sanctions on the volatility of cross‐border capital flows. We employ difference‐in‐differences (DID) and spatial DID (SDID) models, showing the result that financial sanctions lead to an exacerbation of the volatility of cross‐border capital inflows and outflows in the targeted country, with the channel of negative impact on the financial sector in the targeted country. The subsample regressions indicate heterogeneous impacts of financial sanctions depending on economic structure and capital account openness. Additionally, the result of the SDID model shows that financial sanctions cause cross‐border transmission of financial risks, and that the spatial spillover effect of financial sanctions will also have negative economic impacts on other countries in addition to the target country. The significance of this study lies in emphasizing that international financial sanctions affect the economy of target countries through cross‐border capital flows. Meanwhile, we confirm that financial sanctions pose a certain threat to global financial stability.
很少有研究探讨金融制裁对跨境资本流动的影响。本文使用 2000 年至 2019 年 48 个国家的面板数据,旨在研究金融制裁对跨境资本流动波动的影响。我们采用了差分(DID)和空间DID(SDID)模型,结果表明,金融制裁导致目标国跨境资本流入和流出的波动加剧,其渠道是对目标国金融部门的负面影响。子样本回归结果表明,金融制裁的影响因经济结构和资本账户开放度的不同而存在差异。此外,SDID 模型的结果表明,金融制裁会造成金融风险的跨境传递,金融制裁的空间溢出效应也会对目标国之外的其他国家产生负面经济影响。本研究的意义在于强调了国际金融制裁通过跨境资本流动影响目标国的经济。同时,我们证实了金融制裁对全球金融稳定构成了一定的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Inequality and poverty in Spain: Insights from a regional convergence analysis 西班牙的不平等与贫困:地区趋同分析的启示
Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2992
Nicholas Apergis, Francisco J. Delgado, Claudia Suárez‐Arbesú
We study the dynamics of inequality and poverty across 17 Spanish regions during 2008–2021. Through a club convergence approach, the results show noticeable differences in both indicators, income inequality (S80/S20) and poverty rate: two clubs are endogenously derived from inequality, while the analysis of the poverty was conducted in four clubs. In addition, the results are complemented with the outcomes for the GDP per capita, where more heterogeneity is detected, with three clubs, but with six divergent regions. The ordered logit model allows to identify the driving factors of such clubs. Finally, policy implications are discussed: the findings recommend the need for specific public policies to address regional differences in terms of economic and social growth also considering the trajectories—convergence or divergence—in inequality and poverty and their determining factors.
我们研究了 2008-2021 年间西班牙 17 个地区的不平等和贫困动态。通过俱乐部收敛法,结果显示了收入不平等(S80/S20)和贫困率这两个指标的明显差异:两个俱乐部由不平等内生得出,而贫困分析则在四个俱乐部中进行。此外,人均国内生产总值的结果也是对这一结果的补充,在人均国内生产总值方面发现了更多的异质性,有三个俱乐部,但有六个不同的地区。有序对数模型可以确定这些俱乐部的驱动因素。最后,讨论了政策影响:研究结果表明,有必要制定具体的公共政策,以解决经济和社会增长方面的地区差异,同时考虑到不平等和贫困的轨迹--趋同或差异及其决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risks and the REITs market 气候风险与房地产投资信托市场
Pub Date : 2024-04-28 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2983
Afees A. Salisu, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Xuan Vinh Vo
This study presents results supporting the need to price climate risks in real estate investment trusts. We approach this objective by conducting some empirical analyses for global, regional, and [US] sectoral REITs for want of wider coverage while we also consider variants of climate risks involving physical and transition risks. We first establish that climate concerns amplify the volatility of REIT returns. While our results are split for sectoral REITs, we find that both physical and transition risks magnify the volatility in the regional and global REITs market. However, when we consider the US sectoral REITs, we find contrasting evidence between the two variants of climate risks. While the transition risks seem to raise the REITs market volatility, perhaps owing to improved trading in the market as signalled by some level commitments towards addressing climate change, the physical risks associated with damages due to climate change tend to lower the REITs market volatility due to lower trading. Consequently, we formulate a framework that enables a profit‐maximizing investor to observe climate risks when making investment decisions in the REITs market, and we further show that doing so provides higher economic gains than ignoring it. This outcome has implications for investors looking for the best hedging strategy against climate‐related risks, especially as the world intensifies efforts towards de‐carbonization.
本研究的结果表明,有必要对房地产投资信托中的气候风险进行定价。为实现这一目标,我们对全球、地区和[美国]行业房地产投资信托进行了一些实证分析,以扩大覆盖面,同时我们还考虑了气候风险的各种变体,包括物理风险和过渡风险。我们首先确定气候问题会放大房地产投资信托回报的波动性。虽然我们对行业房地产投资信托的研究结果各不相同,但我们发现,有形风险和过渡风险都会放大地区和全球房地产投资信托市场的波动性。然而,当我们考虑美国的行业性房地产投资信托时,我们发现气候风险的两种变体之间存在着截然不同的证据。过渡风险似乎提高了房地产投资信托市场的波动性,这可能是由于在一定程度上承诺应对气候变化,从而改善了市场交易,而与气候变化造成的损害相关的有形风险则由于交易量减少而降低了房地产投资信托市场的波动性。因此,我们制定了一个框架,使利润最大化的投资者在房地产投资信托市场上做出投资决策时能够观察到气候风险,并进一步表明,这样做比忽视气候风险能带来更高的经济收益。这一结果对投资者寻找应对气候相关风险的最佳对冲策略具有重要意义,尤其是在全球加大力度去碳化的背景下。
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引用次数: 0
Market power, optimal scale and competition promotion in banking: Analysis in the GCC region 银行业的市场力量、最佳规模和竞争促进:海湾合作委员会地区分析
Pub Date : 2024-04-28 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2990
Sara Alfaihani, Oleg Badunenko, Shabbar Jaffry
We propose an approach to identify optimally scaled banks and analyse the competition levels among banks in different stages of production in six countries of the Gulf region. The empirical results show that the global financial crisis curbed the rise in the market power of banks, but the market power continued to increase straight after 2009. Also, we show that the existing methods fail to identify that a significant proportion of banks across different countries, up to 90%, are operating at an optimal scale. Finally, we discuss the misclassification of banks by the traditional approach to scale analysis and its implications for decision‐making by competition authorities and central banks that assess and promote competition in banking. We advocate a more nuanced approach to competition policy that recognizes the potential impact of various phases of banks' production process on the competition.
我们提出了一种识别最优规模银行的方法,并分析了海湾地区六个国家不同生产阶段银行之间的竞争水平。实证结果表明,全球金融危机抑制了银行市场力量的上升,但 2009 年后市场力量继续直线上升。此外,我们还发现,现有的方法无法识别不同国家的大部分银行(高达 90%)是以最佳规模运营的。最后,我们讨论了传统规模分析方法对银行的错误分类及其对评估和促进银行业竞争的竞争管理机构和中央银行决策的影响。我们主张对竞争政策采取更加细致入微的方法,承认银行生产过程的各个阶段对竞争的潜在影响。
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引用次数: 0
Trade and flow of value in global value chains 全球价值链中的贸易和价值流动
Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2980
Peijie Wang, Zhiyuan Liu
This paper examines flow of value that goes with trade flows in global value chains (GVCs) by a residence‐based domestic value‐added trade measure. Accordingly, the paper puts forward a concept of residence‐based domestic value‐added exports from activity domains and develops a corresponding trade measure. Export activities of G20 economies are scrutinized empirically, with which sizeable differences are observed between figures in the proposed residence‐based domestic value‐added trade measure and the conventional domestic value‐added trade measure. This calls for new measures, to which the present study responds. It has been demonstrated that the developed G20 gains persistently in residence‐based domestic value‐added exports, increasing from the conventional domestic value‐added exports measure. Whereas trade performance of the developing G20 deteriorates with considerably reduced surpluses in the new measure. Considerable additional value flows out from developing to developed economies in GVCs. Developed economies continue to gain from international trade as a matter of fact.
本文通过一种基于居住地的国内增值贸易计量方法,研究了全球价值链(GVC)中与贸易流动相伴的价值流。因此,本文从活动领域提出了基于居住地的国内增值出口的概念,并制定了相应的贸易措施。本文对 G20 经济体的出口活动进行了实证研究,发现所提出的以居住地为基础的国内增值贸易测度与传统的国内增值贸易测度之间存在巨大差异。这就需要有新的衡量标准,本研究对此做出了回应。研究表明,发达的二十国集团在以居住地为基础的国内增值出口方面持续获益,与传统的国内增值出口衡量标准相比有所增加。而发展中 20 国集团的贸易表现则有所恶化,新衡量标准下的顺差大幅减少。在全球价值链中,大量额外价值从发展中经济体流向发达经济体。事实上,发达经济体继续从国际贸易中获益。
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引用次数: 0
Do ESG funds engage in portfolio pumping to gain higher flows? An application of Benford's Law 环境、社会和治理基金是否为获得更高的流动性而进行投资组合抽水?本福德定律的应用
Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2976
Aineas Mallios, Taylan Mavruk
Portfolio pumping is identified as an ‘illegal’ trading practice that involves inflating quarter‐ and year‐end portfolio returns. Utilizing U.S. domestic equity mutual fund daily return data, we examine whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds engage in portfolio pumping to generate higher flows. Our findings reveal that, on average, ESG funds attract 0.4% higher flows than other funds. However, they engage in portfolio pumping and achieve returns that are 5.3 basis points (bps) higher at quarter ends compared to their returns during the rest of the year. This practice does not result in additional fund flows. Notably, compared to other funds, ESG funds exhibit a significant 4 bps reduction through portfolio pumping. This implies that, on the last day of the quarter, ESG funds earn approximately 4 bps lower returns compared to other funds. Portfolio pumping is costly for both investors and financial markets since it leads to trading activities that cause stock prices to deviate from their fundamental values. ESG funds engage less in portfolio pumping than other funds, which indicates that their primary focus is to maximize fund flows rather than enhance or create a positive social impact on the underlying firm portfolio. Investors seem to understand this goal, particularly when ESG funds engage in portfolio pumping and avoid investing in ESG funds.
投资组合抽水被认为是一种 "非法 "交易行为,涉及夸大季度和年终投资组合回报。利用美国国内股票共同基金的每日回报数据,我们研究了环境、社会和治理(ESG)基金是否参与投资组合抽水以获得更高的流量。我们的研究结果表明,ESG 基金吸引的流量平均比其他基金高 0.4%。然而,与一年中其他时间的回报相比,ESG 基金在季度末进行投资组合抽水并获得了高出 5.3 个基点的回报。这种做法并没有带来额外的资金流量。值得注意的是,与其他基金相比,ESG 基金的投资组合抽水大幅减少了 4 个基点。这意味着,在季度的最后一天,ESG 基金的收益比其他基金低约 4 个基点。投资组合抽水对投资者和金融市场来说都是代价高昂的,因为它会导致交易活动,使股票价格偏离其基本价值。与其他基金相比,ESG 基金的投资组合抽水行为较少,这表明其主要关注点是最大限度地提高资金流量,而不是增强或创造对相关公司投资组合的积极社会影响。投资者似乎理解这一目标,尤其是当 ESG 基金参与投资组合抽水时,投资者会避免投资 ESG 基金。
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引用次数: 0
Acquisition deal characteristics and earnings management: New evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council countries 收购交易特征与收益管理:海湾合作委员会国家的新证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2972
Mahmoud Alghemary, Basil Al‐Najjar, Nereida Polovina
In this study, we empirically investigate the association between acquisition deal characteristics and two forms of earnings management: accruals earnings management and real earnings management. Our focus is on acquiring firms listed in six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Employing a panel data approach to explore these interrelationships, our findings suggest that acquiring companies involved in cross‐border deals tend to resort to accruals earnings management before the acquisition rather than real earnings management. Conversely, acquiring firms engaged in unrelated industrial deals are inclined to employ real earnings management over accruals earnings management. Moreover, our analysis indicates that the extent of acquired ownership acts as an effective tool in mitigating both forms of earnings management. Similarly, cash payment acquisitions emerge as an efficient means of curtailing both accruals and real earnings management. These results underscore that the engagement of GCC acquiring firms in earnings management is influenced by the specific characteristics inherent in the acquisition deals.
在本研究中,我们对收购交易特征与两种形式的收益管理(应计收益管理和实际收益管理)之间的关联进行了实证调查。我们的研究重点是在六个海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家上市的收购公司。我们采用面板数据方法来探讨这些相互关系,结果表明,参与跨国交易的收购公司倾向于在收购前采用应计收益管理,而不是实际收益管理。相反,从事非相关产业交易的收购公司倾向于采用真实收益管理,而不是应计收益管理。此外,我们的分析表明,被收购公司的所有权程度是缓解这两种形式收益管理的有效工具。同样,现金支付收购也是减少权责发生制和实际收益管理的有效手段。这些结果表明,海湾合作委员会收购公司参与收益管理受到收购交易固有特征的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal decisions of retailer's loans from bank 零售商向银行贷款的最优决策
Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2979
Bo Yan, Mengru Liang, Lifeng Liu
This study employs the Stackelberg game model to explore an innovative financing model where the retailer directly borrows from the bank under conditions of symmetric information. Diverging from traditional research, this study uniquely incorporates the concept of the margin rate into the decentralised decision analysis among retailer, supplier, and bank. The finding indicates that the capital of the retailer and margin rate significantly influence financing decisions within the supply chain, thereby impacting profitability for all stakeholders. Specifically, we find that the margin rate plays a crucial role in optimising retailer financing decisions, supplier pricing strategies, and bank risk management. These insights offer a fresh perspective for banks to establish appropriate margin rates and loan interest rates, effectively managing loan risks and maximising supply chain profitability.
本研究采用斯塔克尔伯格博弈模型,探讨了在信息对称条件下零售商直接向银行借款的创新融资模式。与传统研究不同的是,本研究在零售商、供应商和银行之间的分散决策分析中加入了保证金率的概念。研究结果表明,零售商的资本和利润率对供应链中的融资决策有重大影响,从而影响所有利益相关者的盈利能力。具体而言,我们发现利润率在优化零售商融资决策、供应商定价策略和银行风险管理方面发挥着至关重要的作用。这些见解为银行制定适当的保证金率和贷款利率、有效管理贷款风险和最大化供应链盈利能力提供了全新视角。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Finance and Economics
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