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Internet sentiment exacerbates intraday overtrading, evidence from A-Share market 互联网情绪加剧日内过度交易,A 股市场提供的证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: arxiv-2404.12001
Peng Yifeng
Market fluctuations caused by overtrading are important components ofsystemic market risk. This study examines the effect of investor sentiment onintraday overtrading activities in the Chinese A-share market. Employinghigh-frequency sentiment indices inferred from social media posts on theEastmoney forum Guba, the research focuses on constituents of the CSI 300 andCSI 500 indices over a period from 01/01/2018, to 12/30/2022. The empiricalanalysis indicates that investor sentiment exerts a significantly positiveimpact on intraday overtrading, with the influence being more pronounced amonginstitutional investors relative to individual traders. Moreover,sentiment-driven overtrading is found to be more prevalent during bull marketsas opposed to bear markets. Additionally, the effect of sentiment onovertrading is observed to be more pronounced among individual investors inlarge-cap stocks compared to small- and mid-cap stocks.
过度交易引起的市场波动是系统性市场风险的重要组成部分。本研究探讨了投资者情绪对中国 A 股市场当日过度交易活动的影响。研究采用从东财论坛Guba上的社交媒体帖子中推断出的高频情绪指数,重点研究了2018年1月1日至2022年12月30日期间沪深300指数和中证500指数的成分股。实证分析表明,投资者情绪对日内过度交易有显著的正向影响,相对于个人交易者,这种影响在机构投资者中更为明显。此外,研究还发现情绪驱动的过度交易在牛市中比熊市中更为普遍。此外,与中小盘股相比,情绪对过度交易的影响在大盘股的个人投资者中更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Deep Joint Learning valuation of Bermudan Swaptions 百慕大掉期的深度联合学习估值
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: arxiv-2404.11257
Francisco Gómez Casanova, Álvaro Leitao, Fernando de Lope Contreras, Carlos Vázquez
This paper addresses the problem of pricing involved financial derivatives bymeans of advanced of deep learning techniques. More precisely, we smartlycombine several sophisticated neural network-based concepts like differentialmachine learning, Monte Carlo simulation-like training samples and jointlearning to come up with an efficient numerical solution. The application ofthe latter development represents a novelty in the context of computationalfinance. We also propose a novel design of interdependent neural networks toprice early-exercise products, in this case, Bermudan swaptions. Theimprovements in efficiency and accuracy provided by the here proposed approachis widely illustrated throughout a range of numerical experiments. Moreover,this novel methodology can be extended to the pricing of other financialderivatives.
本文通过先进的深度学习技术来解决涉及金融衍生品的定价问题。更确切地说,我们巧妙地结合了基于神经网络的多个复杂概念,如微分机器学习、蒙特卡罗仿真训练样本和联合学习,从而提出了一个高效的数值解决方案。后者的应用是计算金融领域的一项创新。我们还提出了一种新颖的相互依存神经网络设计,用于定价提前行使产品,在本例中就是百慕大掉期。我们提出的方法在效率和准确性上的提高在一系列数值实验中得到了广泛的验证。此外,这种新方法还可以扩展到其他金融衍生品的定价。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparison of Traditional and Deep Learning Methods for Parameter Estimation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process 用于奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克过程参数估计的传统方法与深度学习方法比较
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: arxiv-2404.11526
Jacob Fein-Ashley
We consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, a stochastic process widelyused in finance, physics, and biology. Parameter estimation of the OU processis a challenging problem. Thus, we review traditional tracking methods andcompare them with novel applications of deep learning to estimate theparameters of the OU process. We use a multi-layer perceptron to estimate theparameters of the OU process and compare its performance with traditionalparameter estimation methods, such as the Kalman filter and maximum likelihoodestimation. We find that the multi-layer perceptron can accurately estimate theparameters of the OU process given a large dataset of observed trajectories;however, traditional parameter estimation methods may be more suitable forsmaller datasets.
我们考虑的是奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克(OU)过程,这是一种广泛应用于金融、物理和生物学的随机过程。OU 过程的参数估计是一个具有挑战性的问题。因此,我们回顾了传统的跟踪方法,并将它们与深度学习在估计 OU 过程参数方面的新应用进行了比较。我们使用多层感知器来估计 OU 过程的参数,并将其性能与卡尔曼滤波和最大似然估计等传统参数估计方法进行比较。我们发现,在观测到大量轨迹数据集的情况下,多层感知器可以准确地估计OU过程的参数;然而,传统的参数估计方法可能更适用于较小的数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Learning tensor networks with parameter dependence for Fourier-based option pricing 为基于傅立叶的期权定价学习具有参数依赖性的张量网络
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: arxiv-2405.00701
Rihito Sakurai, Haruto Takahashi, Koichi Miyamoto
A long-standing issue in mathematical finance is the speed-up of pricingoptions, especially multi-asset options. A recent study has proposed to usetensor train learning algorithms to speed up Fourier transform (FT)-basedoption pricing, utilizing the ability of tensor networks to compresshigh-dimensional tensors. Another usage of the tensor network is to compressfunctions, including their parameter dependence. In this study, we propose apricing method, where, by a tensor learning algorithm, we build tensor trainsthat approximate functions appearing in FT-based option pricing with theirparameter dependence and efficiently calculate the option price for the varyinginput parameters. As a benchmark test, we run the proposed method to price amulti-asset option for the various values of volatilities and present assetprices. We show that, in the tested cases involving up to about 10 assets, theproposed method is comparable to or outperforms Monte Carlo simulation with$10^5$ paths in terms of computational complexity, keeping the comparableaccuracy.
数学金融学中一个长期存在的问题是加快期权定价,尤其是多资产期权的定价。最近的一项研究提出,利用张量网络压缩高维张量的能力,使用张量训练学习算法来加速基于傅立叶变换(FT)的期权定价。张量网络的另一个用途是压缩函数,包括其参数依赖性。在本研究中,我们提出了一种定价方法,即通过张量学习算法,建立张量训练,以近似基于 FT 的期权定价中出现的函数及其参数依赖性,并有效计算不同输入参数下的期权价格。作为基准测试,我们使用所提出的方法对不同波动率值和资产现价的多资产期权进行了定价。结果表明,在涉及多达 10 种资产的测试案例中,所提出的方法在计算复杂度方面与采用 10^5$ 路径的蒙特卡罗模拟方法相当,甚至优于后者,同时保持了相当的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Construction of Domain-specified Japanese Large Language Model for Finance through Continual Pre-training 通过持续预训练构建领域指定的日语金融大语言模型
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: arxiv-2404.10555
Masanori Hirano, Kentaro Imajo
Large language models (LLMs) are now widely used in various fields, includingfinance. However, Japanese financial-specific LLMs have not been proposed yet.Hence, this study aims to construct a Japanese financial-specific LLM throughcontinual pre-training. Before tuning, we constructed Japanesefinancial-focused datasets for continual pre-training. As a base model, weemployed a Japanese LLM that achieved state-of-the-art performance on Japanesefinancial benchmarks among the 10-billion-class parameter models. Aftercontinual pre-training using the datasets and the base model, the tuned modelperformed better than the original model on the Japanese financial benchmarks.Moreover, the outputs comparison results reveal that the tuned model's outputstend to be better than the original model's outputs in terms of the quality andlength of the answers. These findings indicate that domain-specific continualpre-training is also effective for LLMs. The tuned model is publicly availableon Hugging Face.
大语言模型(LLM)目前已广泛应用于各个领域,包括金融领域。因此,本研究旨在通过持续的预训练构建日语金融专用 LLM。在调整之前,我们构建了以日本金融为重点的数据集,用于持续预训练。作为基础模型,我们使用了一个日本 LLM,该 LLM 在日本金融基准测试中取得了百亿级参数模型中最先进的性能。在使用数据集和基础模型进行持续预训练后,调整后的模型在日本金融基准测试中的表现优于原始模型。此外,输出比较结果表明,就答案的质量和长度而言,调整后模型的输出最终优于原始模型的输出。这些结果表明,针对特定领域的持续预训练对 LLM 也很有效。调整后的模型可在 "Hugging Face "网站上公开获取。
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引用次数: 0
Quantum Mechanics of Human Perception, Behaviour and Decision-Making: A Do-It-Yourself Model Kit for Modelling Optical Illusions and Opinion Formation in Social Networks 人类感知、行为和决策的量子力学》:为社交网络中的光学幻觉和意见形成建模的自助模型套件
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: arxiv-2404.10554
Ivan S. Maksymov
On the surface, behavioural science and physics seem to be two disparatefields of research. However, a closer examination of problems solved by themreveals that they are uniquely related to one another. Exemplified by thetheories of quantum mind, cognition and decision-making, this uniquerelationship serves as the topic of this chapter. Surveying the currentacademic journal papers and scholarly monographs, we present an alternativevision of the role of quantum mechanics in the modern studies of humanperception, behaviour and decision-making. To that end, we mostly aim to answerthe 'how' question, deliberately avoiding complex mathematical concepts butdeveloping a technically simple computational code that the readers can modifyto design their own quantum-inspired models. We also present several practicalexamples of the application of the computation code and outline severalplausible scenarios, where quantum models based on the proposed do-it-yourselfmodel kit can help understand the differences between the behaviour ofindividuals and social groups.
从表面上看,行为科学和物理学似乎是两个不同的研究领域。然而,仔细研究它们所解决的问题就会发现,它们之间有着独特的联系。以量子心智、认知和决策理论为例,这种独特的关系就是本章的主题。通过对当前的学术期刊论文和学术专著进行调查,我们对量子力学在现代人类感知、行为和决策研究中的作用提出了另一种看法。为此,我们的主要目标是回答 "如何 "的问题,刻意避免使用复杂的数学概念,而是开发了技术上简单的计算代码,读者可以通过修改代码来设计自己的量子启发模型。我们还介绍了几个应用计算代码的实际例子,并概述了几个可信的场景,在这些场景中,基于所提出的 "自己动手做 "模型套件的量子模型可以帮助理解个人和社会群体行为之间的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Quantum Risk Analysis of Financial Derivatives 金融衍生品的量子风险分析
Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: arxiv-2404.10088
Nikitas Stamatopoulos, B. David Clader, Stefan Woerner, William J. Zeng
We introduce two quantum algorithms to compute the Value at Risk (VaR) andConditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of financial derivatives using quantumcomputers: the first by applying existing ideas from quantum risk analysis toderivative pricing, and the second based on a novel approach using QuantumSignal Processing (QSP). Previous work in the literature has shown that quantumadvantage is possible in the context of individual derivative pricing and thatadvantage can be leveraged in a straightforward manner in the estimation of theVaR and CVaR. The algorithms we introduce in this work aim to provide anadditional advantage by encoding the derivative price over multiple marketscenarios in superposition and computing the desired values by applyingappropriate transformations to the quantum system. We perform complexity anderror analysis of both algorithms, and show that while the two algorithms havethe same asymptotic scaling the QSP-based approach requires significantly fewerquantum resources for the same target accuracy. Additionally, by numericallysimulating both quantum and classical VaR algorithms, we demonstrate that thequantum algorithm can extract additional advantage from a quantum computercompared to individual derivative pricing. Specifically, we show that undercertain conditions VaR estimation can lower the latest published estimates ofthe logical clock rate required for quantum advantage in derivative pricing byup to $sim 30$x. In light of these results, we are encouraged that ourformulation of derivative pricing in the QSP framework may be further leveragedfor quantum advantage in other relevant financial applications, and thatquantum computers could be harnessed more efficiently by considering problemsin the financial sector at a higher level.
我们介绍了两种利用量子计算机计算金融衍生品风险值(VaR)和条件风险值(CVaR)的量子算法:第一种算法将量子风险分析的现有思想应用于衍生品定价,第二种算法基于量子信号处理(QSP)的新方法。之前的文献研究表明,量子优势在单个衍生品定价方面是可行的,并且可以直接利用量子优势来估算 VaR 和 CVaR。我们在这项工作中介绍的算法旨在通过对多个市场情景的衍生品价格进行叠加编码,并通过对量子系统应用适当的变换来计算所需的值,从而提供额外的优势。我们对这两种算法进行了复杂性和误差分析,结果表明,虽然这两种算法具有相同的渐进缩放,但基于 QSP 的方法在目标精度相同的情况下所需的量子资源要少得多。此外,通过对量子算法和经典 VaR 算法进行数值模拟,我们证明量子算法可以从量子计算机中获取比单个衍生品定价更多的优势。具体来说,我们证明了在特定条件下,VaR 估值可以将最新公布的衍生品定价中量子优势所需的逻辑时钟频率估计值降低多达 $sim 30$x。鉴于这些结果,我们感到鼓舞的是,我们在 QSP 框架中对衍生品定价的表述可能会在其他相关金融应用中进一步发挥量子优势,而且通过在更高层次上考虑金融领域的问题,可以更有效地利用量子计算机。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental Analysis of Deep Hedging Using Artificial Market Simulations for Underlying Asset Simulators 利用人工市场模拟进行深度套期保值的基础资产模拟器实验分析
Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: arxiv-2404.09462
Masanori Hirano
Derivative hedging and pricing are important and continuously studied topicsin financial markets. Recently, deep hedging has been proposed as a promisingapproach that uses deep learning to approximate the optimal hedging strategyand can handle incomplete markets. However, deep hedging usually requiresunderlying asset simulations, and it is challenging to select the best modelfor such simulations. This study proposes a new approach using artificialmarket simulations for underlying asset simulations in deep hedging. Artificialmarket simulations can replicate the stylized facts of financial markets, andthey seem to be a promising approach for deep hedging. We investigate theeffectiveness of the proposed approach by comparing its results with those ofthe traditional approach, which uses mathematical finance models such asBrownian motion and Heston models for underlying asset simulations. The resultsshow that the proposed approach can achieve almost the same level ofperformance as the traditional approach without mathematical finance models.Finally, we also reveal that the proposed approach has some limitations interms of performance under certain conditions.
衍生品对冲和定价是金融市场中重要且持续研究的课题。最近,深度套期保值作为一种很有前途的方法被提出来,它利用深度学习来逼近最优套期保值策略,并能处理不完全市场。然而,深度对冲通常需要底层资产模拟,而为这种模拟选择最佳模式具有挑战性。本研究提出了一种在深度对冲中使用人工市场模拟进行基础资产模拟的新方法。人工市场模拟可以复制金融市场的典型事实,似乎是一种很有前途的深度对冲方法。我们将所提出的方法与使用布朗运动和赫斯顿模型等数学金融模型进行基础资产模拟的传统方法的结果进行了比较,从而研究了其有效性。结果表明,所提出的方法与不使用数学金融模型的传统方法几乎可以达到相同的性能水平。最后,我们还揭示了所提出的方法在某些条件下的性能方面存在一些局限性。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing path-integral approximation for non-linear diffusion with neural network 用神经网络增强非线性扩散的路径积分近似法
Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: arxiv-2404.08903
Anna Knezevic
Enhancing the existing solution for pricing of fixed income instrumentswithin Black-Karasinski model structure, with neural network at variousparameterisation points to demonstrate that the method is able to achievesuperior outcomes for multiple calibrations across extended projectionhorizons.
在 Black-Karasinski 模型结构下,利用神经网络在不同参数化点上增强固定收益工具定价的现有解决方案,以证明该方法能够在扩展投影范围内的多重校准中取得更佳结果。
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引用次数: 0
A backward differential deep learning-based algorithm for solving high-dimensional nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations 基于后向微分深度学习的高维非线性后向随机微分方程求解算法
Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: arxiv-2404.08456
Lorenc Kapllani, Long Teng
In this work, we propose a novel backward differential deep learning-basedalgorithm for solving high-dimensional nonlinear backward stochasticdifferential equations (BSDEs), where the deep neural network (DNN) models aretrained not only on the inputs and labels but also the differentials of thecorresponding labels. This is motivated by the fact that differential deeplearning can provide an efficient approximation of the labels and theirderivatives with respect to inputs. The BSDEs are reformulated as differentialdeep learning problems by using Malliavin calculus. The Malliavin derivativesof solution to a BSDE satisfy themselves another BSDE, resulting thus in asystem of BSDEs. Such formulation requires the estimation of the solution, itsgradient, and the Hessian matrix, represented by the triple of processes$left(Y, Z, Gammaright).$ All the integrals within this system arediscretized by using the Euler-Maruyama method. Subsequently, DNNs are employedto approximate the triple of these unknown processes. The DNN parameters arebackwardly optimized at each time step by minimizing a differential learningtype loss function, which is defined as a weighted sum of the dynamics of thediscretized BSDE system, with the first term providing the dynamics of theprocess $Y$ and the other the process $Z$. An error analysis is carried out toshow the convergence of the proposed algorithm. Various numerical experimentsup to $50$ dimensions are provided to demonstrate the high efficiency. Boththeoretically and numerically, it is demonstrated that our proposed scheme ismore efficient compared to other contemporary deep learning-basedmethodologies, especially in the computation of the process $Gamma$.
在这项工作中,我们提出了一种基于后向微分深度学习的新型算法,用于求解高维非线性后向随机微分方程(BSDE),其中深度神经网络(DNN)模型不仅根据输入和标签进行训练,还根据相应标签的微分进行训练。这是因为微分深度学习可以提供标签及其相对于输入的微分的有效近似。通过使用马利亚文微积分,BSDE 被重新表述为微分深度学习问题。一个 BSDE 的 Malliavin 导数满足另一个 BSDE,从而形成一个 BSDE 系统。这种计算方法需要估算解、其梯度和黑森矩阵,黑森矩阵由三重过程$left(Y, Z, Gammaright)$表示。随后,使用 DNN 近似这些未知过程的三重。DNN 参数通过最小化微分学习型损失函数在每个时间步进行后向优化,该损失函数定义为已离散化 BSDE 系统动态的加权和,其中第一项提供了过程 $Y$ 的动态,另一项提供了过程 $Z$。为了显示所提算法的收敛性,我们进行了误差分析。为了证明算法的高效性,还提供了高达 50 美元维度的各种数值实验。无论是理论上还是数值上,都证明了我们提出的方案与其他当代基于深度学习的方法相比更加高效,尤其是在计算过程 $Gamma$ 时。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Computational Finance
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