Alexandros Theloudis, Jorge Velilla, Pierre-André Chiappori, J Ignacio Giménez-Nadal, José Alberto Molina
The extent to which individuals commit to their partner for life has important implications. This paper develops a lifecycle collective model of the household, through which it characterises behaviour in three prominent alternative types of commitment: full, limited, and no commitment. We propose a test that distinguishes between all three types based on how contemporaneous and historical news affect household behaviour. Our test permits heterogeneity in the degree of commitment across households. Using recent data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we reject full and no commitment, while we find strong evidence for limited commitment.
个人对伴侣终身承诺的程度具有重要影响。本文建立了一个家庭生命周期集体模型，通过该模型描述了三种显著的替代承诺类型的行为特征：完全承诺、有限承诺和无承诺。我们根据当时和历史新闻对家庭行为的影响，提出了一种区分所有三种类型的检验方法。我们的检验允许不同家庭的承诺程度存在异质性。利用《收入动态面板研究》（Panel Study of Income Dynamics）的最新数据，我们否定了完全承诺和无承诺，同时发现了有限承诺的有力证据。
{"title":"Commitment and the Dynamics of Household Labour Supply","authors":"Alexandros Theloudis, Jorge Velilla, Pierre-André Chiappori, J Ignacio Giménez-Nadal, José Alberto Molina","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae065","url":null,"abstract":"The extent to which individuals commit to their partner for life has important implications. This paper develops a lifecycle collective model of the household, through which it characterises behaviour in three prominent alternative types of commitment: full, limited, and no commitment. We propose a test that distinguishes between all three types based on how contemporaneous and historical news affect household behaviour. Our test permits heterogeneity in the degree of commitment across households. Using recent data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we reject full and no commitment, while we find strong evidence for limited commitment.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141612442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It has been well-documented that beliefs and actions can be affected by media coverage. In this paper, I study the effect of newspaper coverage of climate change on individual driving behaviour. I construct a measure of the tone of coverage based on comparisons between environmental and sceptical texts. I then use this measure, along with detailed information about driving patterns, to test whether households’ travel decisions are affected by the coverage that they have recently received. I find that coverage of climate change that uses an environmental tone causes households to make environmentally friendly travel decisions, particularly when good substitutes are available. Since driving is a major source of carbon emissions, these results illustrate a potential externality of media coverage.
{"title":"Measuring Social Benefits of Media Coverage: How Coverage of Climate Change Affects Behaviour","authors":"Graham Beattie","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae067","url":null,"abstract":"It has been well-documented that beliefs and actions can be affected by media coverage. In this paper, I study the effect of newspaper coverage of climate change on individual driving behaviour. I construct a measure of the tone of coverage based on comparisons between environmental and sceptical texts. I then use this measure, along with detailed information about driving patterns, to test whether households’ travel decisions are affected by the coverage that they have recently received. I find that coverage of climate change that uses an environmental tone causes households to make environmentally friendly travel decisions, particularly when good substitutes are available. Since driving is a major source of carbon emissions, these results illustrate a potential externality of media coverage.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141587295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Real GDP and industrial production in the US display substantial asymmetry and tail risk. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? Our empirical approach, based on quantile regressions and local projections, suggests otherwise. We find that the 10th percentile of predictive growth distributions responds between three and six times more than the median to monetary policy shocks, financial shocks, uncertainty shocks, and oil price shocks, indicating a common transmission mechanism. We present two data-generating processes that are capable of matching this finding: A threshold VAR model and a nonlinear equilibrium model.
美国的实际 GDP 和工业生产显示出严重的不对称性和尾部风险。这种不对称性是由特定的结构性冲击造成的吗？我们基于量化回归和本地预测的经验方法表明并非如此。我们发现，预测增长分布的第 10 个百分位数对货币政策冲击、金融冲击、不确定性冲击和油价冲击的反应是中位数的 3 到 6 倍，这表明存在一个共同的传导机制。我们提出了两个能够与这一发现相匹配的数据生成过程：阈值 VAR 模型和非线性均衡模型。
{"title":"Assessing macroeconomic tail risk","authors":"Francesca Loria, Christian Matthes, Donghai Zhang","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae066","url":null,"abstract":"Real GDP and industrial production in the US display substantial asymmetry and tail risk. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? Our empirical approach, based on quantile regressions and local projections, suggests otherwise. We find that the 10th percentile of predictive growth distributions responds between three and six times more than the median to monetary policy shocks, financial shocks, uncertainty shocks, and oil price shocks, indicating a common transmission mechanism. We present two data-generating processes that are capable of matching this finding: A threshold VAR model and a nonlinear equilibrium model.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141587296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Almost half of all private employment in the United States is within businesses that do not pay corporate income tax. Instead, business income passes through to the owners’ individual income taxes. This pass-through share of employment has more than tripled since the early 1980s. Using comprehensive, confidential administrative data, this paper highlights five core findings underlying this growth: (1) the rise in pass-throughs is pervasive across industries and states; (2) the pass-through share converges unconditionally across both; (3) entrants’ organisational choices drive 60% of the rise; (4) shifts in firm and organisational dynamics following the 1986 Tax Reform Act show continued effects through the 2000s; (5) organisational forms exhibit high persistence with little lifecycle variation. Our study implies that tax or regulatory policy changes might take decades to manifest fully.
{"title":"The Rise of Pass-Throughs: an Empirical Investigation","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda, Benjamin Pugsley","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae062","url":null,"abstract":"Almost half of all private employment in the United States is within businesses that do not pay corporate income tax. Instead, business income passes through to the owners’ individual income taxes. This pass-through share of employment has more than tripled since the early 1980s. Using comprehensive, confidential administrative data, this paper highlights five core findings underlying this growth: (1) the rise in pass-throughs is pervasive across industries and states; (2) the pass-through share converges unconditionally across both; (3) entrants’ organisational choices drive 60% of the rise; (4) shifts in firm and organisational dynamics following the 1986 Tax Reform Act show continued effects through the 2000s; (5) organisational forms exhibit high persistence with little lifecycle variation. Our study implies that tax or regulatory policy changes might take decades to manifest fully.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates how labour-market tightness affects market outcomes if firms use informal, self-enforcing, agreements to motivate workers. We characterise profit-maximising equilibria and show that an increase in the supply of homogeneous workers can increase wages. Moreover, even though all workers are identical in terms of skills or productivity, profit-maximising discrimination equilibria exist. There, a group of majority workers is paid higher wages than a group of minority workers, who may even be completely excluded. Minimum wages can reduce such discrimination and increase employment. We discuss how these results relate to empirical evidence on downward wage rigidity, immigration, the gender pay gap, and credentialism.
{"title":"Informal Incentives and Labour Markets","authors":"Matthias Fahn, Takeshi Murooka","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae063","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how labour-market tightness affects market outcomes if firms use informal, self-enforcing, agreements to motivate workers. We characterise profit-maximising equilibria and show that an increase in the supply of homogeneous workers can increase wages. Moreover, even though all workers are identical in terms of skills or productivity, profit-maximising discrimination equilibria exist. There, a group of majority workers is paid higher wages than a group of minority workers, who may even be completely excluded. Minimum wages can reduce such discrimination and increase employment. We discuss how these results relate to empirical evidence on downward wage rigidity, immigration, the gender pay gap, and credentialism.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the critical role of church membership in the process of economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. We document a significant adverse treatment effect of the 2005 hurricane season in the Southeastern United States on establishment-level productivity. However, we find that establishments in counties with higher rates of church membership saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. We also show that church membership is correlated with post-disaster entrepreneurship activities and population growth.
{"title":"Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season","authors":"Iftekhar Hasan, Stefano Manfredonia, Felix Noth","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae061","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the critical role of church membership in the process of economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. We document a significant adverse treatment effect of the 2005 hurricane season in the Southeastern United States on establishment-level productivity. However, we find that establishments in counties with higher rates of church membership saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. We also show that church membership is correlated with post-disaster entrepreneurship activities and population growth.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141500755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Collusion is deemed unlikely in wholesale markets where upstream suppliers and intermediate buyers privately negotiate discounts off list prices and sales quotas are unfeasible. However, many wholesale markets include both small and large buyers who compete in the retail market. We study the role of publicly announced list prices in this wholesale-retail setting, whether suppliers collude or compete. When suppliers collude, public announcements of list prices extend the possibility of collusion from small to large buyers (the multibuyer contact effect). When suppliers compete, these announcements provide them with commitment to negotiate better terms with large buyers (the commitment effect).
{"title":"Using List Prices to Collude or to Compete?","authors":"Diego Cussen, Juan-Pablo Montero","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae058","url":null,"abstract":"Collusion is deemed unlikely in wholesale markets where upstream suppliers and intermediate buyers privately negotiate discounts off list prices and sales quotas are unfeasible. However, many wholesale markets include both small and large buyers who compete in the retail market. We study the role of publicly announced list prices in this wholesale-retail setting, whether suppliers collude or compete. When suppliers collude, public announcements of list prices extend the possibility of collusion from small to large buyers (the multibuyer contact effect). When suppliers compete, these announcements provide them with commitment to negotiate better terms with large buyers (the commitment effect).","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141521036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I provide evidence of social spillovers of personality by showing that being in class with motivated peers affects educational success. I first document that academic motivation, a key aspect of personality in the context of education, predicts own achievement, classroom behavior, high school GPA, and college-test taking among elementary school students. Exploiting random assignment of students to classes, I then show that exposure to motivated classmates causally affects achievement, an effect that operates over and above spillovers of classmates’ past achievement and socio-demographic composition. However, peer motivation in elementary school does not affect own motivation and long-term educational success.
{"title":"Do Motivated Classmates Matter for Educational Success?","authors":"Jan Bietenbeck","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae060","url":null,"abstract":"I provide evidence of social spillovers of personality by showing that being in class with motivated peers affects educational success. I first document that academic motivation, a key aspect of personality in the context of education, predicts own achievement, classroom behavior, high school GPA, and college-test taking among elementary school students. Exploiting random assignment of students to classes, I then show that exposure to motivated classmates causally affects achievement, an effect that operates over and above spillovers of classmates’ past achievement and socio-demographic composition. However, peer motivation in elementary school does not affect own motivation and long-term educational success.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141500705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper evaluates the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the individual propensity to delay or skip medical care. Our research design exploits the arguably exogenous variation in age-specific vaccine eligibility rollout across states and over time as an instrument for individual vaccination status. We find that receiving a COVID-19 vaccine reduces the likelihood of delaying care for any medical condition by 37 percent. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that children are significantly less likely to delay or skip healthcare as a result of their parents becoming vaccine eligible, indicating the presence of a positive health spillover within households that extends beyond protection against infection. Our analysis also shows that vaccination reduces concerns about contracting or spreading COVID-19, leading to increased mobility and potentially reducing delays or avoidance in seeking healthcare. Additionally, we find that vaccination notably increased access to elective care and surgeries but had no significant impact on emergency department admissions, mental health cases, or other medical conditions. Our results highlight the important role that vaccines play in, not only protecting against coronavirus, but also safeguarding against the worsening of health due to delayed or foregone medical care. The decline in delayed or foregone care caused by vaccination is particularly strong among minorities and those with a low socioeconomic background, revealing an important role that vaccination efforts can play in narrowing inequities in health and healthcare. In supplementary analysis, we use novel data on debit and credit card spending to demonstrate that increased vaccine uptake has a positive, albeit statistically insignificant, effect on consumer healthcare spending in the short run. Taken together, our findings imply that advancements in vaccine development coupled with a regulatory process that accelerates the availability of vaccines to public in a safe manner can have the additional benefit of tackling unmet healthcare needs during a public health crisis.
{"title":"Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care, and Health Expenditures","authors":"Erkmen G Aslim, Wei Fu, Chia-Lun Liu, Erdal Tekin","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae051","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the individual propensity to delay or skip medical care. Our research design exploits the arguably exogenous variation in age-specific vaccine eligibility rollout across states and over time as an instrument for individual vaccination status. We find that receiving a COVID-19 vaccine reduces the likelihood of delaying care for any medical condition by 37 percent. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that children are significantly less likely to delay or skip healthcare as a result of their parents becoming vaccine eligible, indicating the presence of a positive health spillover within households that extends beyond protection against infection. Our analysis also shows that vaccination reduces concerns about contracting or spreading COVID-19, leading to increased mobility and potentially reducing delays or avoidance in seeking healthcare. Additionally, we find that vaccination notably increased access to elective care and surgeries but had no significant impact on emergency department admissions, mental health cases, or other medical conditions. Our results highlight the important role that vaccines play in, not only protecting against coronavirus, but also safeguarding against the worsening of health due to delayed or foregone medical care. The decline in delayed or foregone care caused by vaccination is particularly strong among minorities and those with a low socioeconomic background, revealing an important role that vaccination efforts can play in narrowing inequities in health and healthcare. In supplementary analysis, we use novel data on debit and credit card spending to demonstrate that increased vaccine uptake has a positive, albeit statistically insignificant, effect on consumer healthcare spending in the short run. Taken together, our findings imply that advancements in vaccine development coupled with a regulatory process that accelerates the availability of vaccines to public in a safe manner can have the additional benefit of tackling unmet healthcare needs during a public health crisis.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"202 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141521038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinò, Harald Fadinger, Gino Gancia
We use French data over the 1994-2013 period to study how imports of industrial robots affect firm-level outcomes. Guided by a simple model, we develop a novel empirical strategy to identify the causal effects of robot adoption. Our results suggest that, while demand shocks generate a positive correlation between robot imports and employment at the firm level, exogenous exposure to automation leads to job losses. We also find that robot exposure increases labour productivity and some evidence that it may raise the relative demand for high-skill professions.
{"title":"Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes","authors":"Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinò, Harald Fadinger, Gino Gancia","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae055","url":null,"abstract":"We use French data over the 1994-2013 period to study how imports of industrial robots affect firm-level outcomes. Guided by a simple model, we develop a novel empirical strategy to identify the causal effects of robot adoption. Our results suggest that, while demand shocks generate a positive correlation between robot imports and employment at the firm level, exogenous exposure to automation leads to job losses. We also find that robot exposure increases labour productivity and some evidence that it may raise the relative demand for high-skill professions.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141500754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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