Stephen R Boucher, Michael R Carter, Jon Einar Flatnes, Travis J Lybbert, Jonathan G Malacarne, Paswel P Mareyna, Laura A Paul
Using a multi-year, spatially-diversified randomised controlled trial spanning two African countries, this paper explores whether a complementary bundle of genetic and financial technologies can boost the resilience and productivity of small-scale farmers. The analysis shows that both moderate droughts and more severe yield losses undermine the resilience of control group households, and that these shocks have long-lasting effects as farmers invest and produce less following shocks. Severe yield shocks also increase hunger and food insecurity. The genetic technology—drought tolerant seeds—provides economically significant protection against mid-season drought and mitigates the long-term drop in farm productivity seen in the control group. The financial technology—satellite-based index insurance—offsets the long-term consequences of severe yield losses that are not mitigated by the drought tolerant seeds. Finally, the analysis shows that treatment group farmers who experienced shocks and saw the technologies in action subsequently increased their agricultural investment beyond pre-shock levels, an effect we call the resilience dividend. Unfortunately, this apparent experiential learning cuts both ways. Farmers who did not experience the efficacy of the risk management technologies backed away from using them. Our findings thus showcase how genetic and financial risk mitigating technologies can offer farmers more complete protection, as well as the challenge of inducing sustained uptake of technologies that are midway between experience and credence goods and only infrequently reveal their benefits.
{"title":"Bundling Genetic and Financial Technologies for More Resilient and Productive Small-Scale Farmers in Africa","authors":"Stephen R Boucher, Michael R Carter, Jon Einar Flatnes, Travis J Lybbert, Jonathan G Malacarne, Paswel P Mareyna, Laura A Paul","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae012","url":null,"abstract":"Using a multi-year, spatially-diversified randomised controlled trial spanning two African countries, this paper explores whether a complementary bundle of genetic and financial technologies can boost the resilience and productivity of small-scale farmers. The analysis shows that both moderate droughts and more severe yield losses undermine the resilience of control group households, and that these shocks have long-lasting effects as farmers invest and produce less following shocks. Severe yield shocks also increase hunger and food insecurity. The genetic technology—drought tolerant seeds—provides economically significant protection against mid-season drought and mitigates the long-term drop in farm productivity seen in the control group. The financial technology—satellite-based index insurance—offsets the long-term consequences of severe yield losses that are not mitigated by the drought tolerant seeds. Finally, the analysis shows that treatment group farmers who experienced shocks and saw the technologies in action subsequently increased their agricultural investment beyond pre-shock levels, an effect we call the resilience dividend. Unfortunately, this apparent experiential learning cuts both ways. Farmers who did not experience the efficacy of the risk management technologies backed away from using them. Our findings thus showcase how genetic and financial risk mitigating technologies can offer farmers more complete protection, as well as the challenge of inducing sustained uptake of technologies that are midway between experience and credence goods and only infrequently reveal their benefits.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139910636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Enterprise creation, destruction and evolution support the transition to modern economic growth, yet these processes are poorly understood in industrializing contexts. We investigate Imperial Russia's industrial development at the firm-level by examining entry, exit and persistence of corporations. Relying on newly developed balance sheet panel data from every non-financial Russian corporation (more than 2500 of them) between 1899 and 1914, we examine the characteristics of entering and exiting corporations, how new entrants evolved and the impact of founder identity on subsequent outcomes. Russian corporations evolved within a market environment, conditional on overcoming distortionary institutional barriers to entry that slowed the emergence of these leading firms in the Imperial economy.
{"title":"The Births, Lives and Deaths of Corporations in Late Imperial Russia","authors":"Amanda Gregg, Steven Nafziger","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae011","url":null,"abstract":"Enterprise creation, destruction and evolution support the transition to modern economic growth, yet these processes are poorly understood in industrializing contexts. We investigate Imperial Russia's industrial development at the firm-level by examining entry, exit and persistence of corporations. Relying on newly developed balance sheet panel data from every non-financial Russian corporation (more than 2500 of them) between 1899 and 1914, we examine the characteristics of entering and exiting corporations, how new entrants evolved and the impact of founder identity on subsequent outcomes. Russian corporations evolved within a market environment, conditional on overcoming distortionary institutional barriers to entry that slowed the emergence of these leading firms in the Imperial economy.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We partnered with the Ghanaian government to test simultaneously four methods of increasing achievement—assistant-led remedial pull-out lessons, remedial after school lessons, or smaller class sizes or teacher implemented partial day tracking—in schools with low and heterogeneous student achievement. The interventions increased student learning by about 0.1SD, rising to 0.4SD when adjusting for imperfect implementation, with no effects on attendance, grade repetition, or drop-out. Test score increases were larger for girls. Test score gains persisted after the program ended. Assistants implemented the program with higher fidelity than teachers, although their fidelity decreased over time while teacher fidelity marginally improved.
{"title":"Experimental Evidence on Four Policies to Increase Learning at Scale","authors":"Annie Duflo, Jessica Kiessel, Adrienne M Lucas","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae003","url":null,"abstract":"We partnered with the Ghanaian government to test simultaneously four methods of increasing achievement—assistant-led remedial pull-out lessons, remedial after school lessons, or smaller class sizes or teacher implemented partial day tracking—in schools with low and heterogeneous student achievement. The interventions increased student learning by about 0.1SD, rising to 0.4SD when adjusting for imperfect implementation, with no effects on attendance, grade repetition, or drop-out. Test score increases were larger for girls. Test score gains persisted after the program ended. Assistants implemented the program with higher fidelity than teachers, although their fidelity decreased over time while teacher fidelity marginally improved.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139680249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cesi Cruz, Philip Keefer, Julien Labonne, Francesco Trebbi
Can voters in clientelist countries be swayed by programmatic promises? Results from a structural model and a field experiment disseminating candidate policy platforms in Philippine mayoral elections indicate that they can. Voters who received information about candidate policy promises were more likely to vote for candidates who were closer to their own preferences. Voters who were informed about incumbent candidates’ past commitments were more likely to vote for incumbents who fulfilled them. The structural model uncovers mechanisms. Information about campaign promises increases policies’ salience relative to other voter concerns; it also affects voter beliefs about candidate quality and candidates’ platforms.
{"title":"Making Policies Matter: Voter Responses to Campaign Promises","authors":"Cesi Cruz, Philip Keefer, Julien Labonne, Francesco Trebbi","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae008","url":null,"abstract":"Can voters in clientelist countries be swayed by programmatic promises? Results from a structural model and a field experiment disseminating candidate policy platforms in Philippine mayoral elections indicate that they can. Voters who received information about candidate policy promises were more likely to vote for candidates who were closer to their own preferences. Voters who were informed about incumbent candidates’ past commitments were more likely to vote for incumbents who fulfilled them. The structural model uncovers mechanisms. Information about campaign promises increases policies’ salience relative to other voter concerns; it also affects voter beliefs about candidate quality and candidates’ platforms.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139677553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We explore the legacy of foreign state repression by using the case of the de-facto annexed Nazi OZ in Italy and a spatial regression discontinuity design. We show that the OZ experienced harsher political persecution and violence. Post war, these exhibited greater support for radical opposition at the expense of the moderate ruling party. Consistent with a mechanism of greater distrust in the government, formerly annexed areas are more likely to vote against laws suppressing dissent and report lower political trust. These results suggest that repressive annexation, even if temporary, has enduring political and social consequences.
我们以事实上被纳粹吞并的意大利 OZ 区为例，采用空间回归不连续设计，探讨了外国国家镇压的遗留问题。我们发现，OZ 经历了更严厉的政治迫害和暴力。战后，这些人表现出对激进反对派的更大支持，而以牺牲温和执政党为代价。与对政府更不信任的机制相一致的是，以前被吞并的地区更有可能投票反对压制不同政见的法律，并报告了较低的政治信任度。这些结果表明，镇压性兼并即使是暂时的，也会产生持久的政治和社会后果。
{"title":"The Political Legacy of Nazi Annexation","authors":"Mario Cannella, Alexey Makarin, Ricardo Pique","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae009","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the legacy of foreign state repression by using the case of the de-facto annexed Nazi OZ in Italy and a spatial regression discontinuity design. We show that the OZ experienced harsher political persecution and violence. Post war, these exhibited greater support for radical opposition at the expense of the moderate ruling party. Consistent with a mechanism of greater distrust in the government, formerly annexed areas are more likely to vote against laws suppressing dissent and report lower political trust. These results suggest that repressive annexation, even if temporary, has enduring political and social consequences.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"168 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139585037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows that job polarisation –i.e., the disappearance of routine jobs– is changing the characteristics of the labour market. This has structural implications for the relationship between inflation and unemployment, the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and exploiting the fact that job polarisation accelerates during recessions, we obtain two empirical results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter PC afterwards. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain more than a fourth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002-2018 period. Then, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions, we highlight a channel through which labour market characteristics operate on the slope of the PC. Increasing labour market fluidity –i.e., higher separation and hiring rate– decreases the slope of the PC. Using micro-data, we find that in the EMU non-routine jobs are more fluid. We conclude that job polarisation flattened the PC.
本文表明，工作两极分化--即常规工作的消失--正在改变劳动力市场的特征。这对通货膨胀与失业率之间的关系，即价格菲利普斯曲线（PC）产生了结构性影响。利用欧洲货币联盟（EMU）的数据，并利用就业两极分化在经济衰退期间加速这一事实，我们得出了两个经验性结果。首先，在经济衰退期间职业结构发生较大变化的国家，其 PC 曲线在衰退之后会变得更加平坦。其次，在大衰退和主权债务危机期间经历的职业转变解释了 2002-2018 年期间超过四分之一的曲线扁平化现象。然后，我们利用新凯恩斯主义的失业、搜索和匹配摩擦模型，强调了劳动力市场特征对 PC 斜率产生影响的渠道。劳动力市场流动性的增加--即更高的离职率和雇佣率--会降低 PC 的斜率。通过使用微观数据，我们发现在欧洲货币联盟中，非例行工作的流动性更高。我们的结论是，工作两极分化使 PC 趋于平缓。
{"title":"Job Polarisation, Labour Market Fluidity and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve","authors":"Daniele Siena, Riccardo Zago","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae006","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that job polarisation –i.e., the disappearance of routine jobs– is changing the characteristics of the labour market. This has structural implications for the relationship between inflation and unemployment, the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and exploiting the fact that job polarisation accelerates during recessions, we obtain two empirical results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter PC afterwards. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain more than a fourth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002-2018 period. Then, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions, we highlight a channel through which labour market characteristics operate on the slope of the PC. Increasing labour market fluidity –i.e., higher separation and hiring rate– decreases the slope of the PC. Using micro-data, we find that in the EMU non-routine jobs are more fluid. We conclude that job polarisation flattened the PC.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139648687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper proposes a model of the distribution channel to study the decisions of manufacturers, retailers and consumers. The model is used to study how retail distribution affects manufacturing and consumers. As the cost of distribution falls, the retail sector increases assortment size and allows a larger mass of manufacturers to enter, allowing consumers to buy more variety. Entry primitives in manufacturing and retailing determine vertical pricing power. The equilibrium of the model predicts the national retail sector is a fraction of the total economy that depends on the demand for variety. It is not affected by, e.g., consumer transportation cost or income. Data support this prediction.
{"title":"Innovation and Distribution: an Equilibrium Model of Manufacturing and Retailing","authors":"Bart J Bronnenberg","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead113","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a model of the distribution channel to study the decisions of manufacturers, retailers and consumers. The model is used to study how retail distribution affects manufacturing and consumers. As the cost of distribution falls, the retail sector increases assortment size and allows a larger mass of manufacturers to enter, allowing consumers to buy more variety. Entry primitives in manufacturing and retailing determine vertical pricing power. The equilibrium of the model predicts the national retail sector is a fraction of the total economy that depends on the demand for variety. It is not affected by, e.g., consumer transportation cost or income. Data support this prediction.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139648697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Ciancio, Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler, I. Kohler
We investigate the impact of a randomised information intervention about population-level mortality on health investment and subjective health expectations. Our focus is on risky sex in a high HIV-prevalence environment. Treated individuals are less likely to engage in risky sexual practices one year after the intervention, with for example an 8% increase in abstinence. We collected detailed data on individuals’ subjective expectations about their own and population survival, as well as other important health outcomes. Our findings emphasise the significance of integrating subjective expectations data in field experiments to identify the pathways that lead to behavioural change.
{"title":"Mortality Risk Information, Survival Expectations and Sexual Behaviours","authors":"A. Ciancio, Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler, I. Kohler","doi":"10.1093/ej/uead116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead116","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We investigate the impact of a randomised information intervention about population-level mortality on health investment and subjective health expectations. Our focus is on risky sex in a high HIV-prevalence environment. Treated individuals are less likely to engage in risky sexual practices one year after the intervention, with for example an 8% increase in abstinence. We collected detailed data on individuals’ subjective expectations about their own and population survival, as well as other important health outcomes. Our findings emphasise the significance of integrating subjective expectations data in field experiments to identify the pathways that lead to behavioural change.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"115 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139596579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964-1973). We show that regions heavily bombed during the conflict experienced lower economic development, even 50 years after it officially ended. Our research employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators. A one standard deviation increase in bombing intensity decreases GPD per capita by 7.1%. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation, and migration patterns, stressing the role of Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission.
{"title":"Collateral Damage The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos","authors":"Juan Felipe Riaño, F. Caicedo","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964-1973). We show that regions heavily bombed during the conflict experienced lower economic development, even 50 years after it officially ended. Our research employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators. A one standard deviation increase in bombing intensity decreases GPD per capita by 7.1%. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation, and migration patterns, stressing the role of Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"28 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139602089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Samuel Dodini, Michael Lovenheim, Kjell Salvanes, Alexander Willén
This paper extends the monopsony literature by taking a task-based approach and estimating the causal effect of concentration on labour market outcomes. Using detailed employer-employee data from Norway, we find that our job task-based measure shows lower degrees of concentration than conventional industry-and occupation-based measures. Exploiting mass layoffs as exogenous shocks to local labour demand, we show that workers who experience mass separations in more concentrated markets have substantially worse subsequent labour market outcomes than workers in less-concentrated markets. Our results point to the existence of employer market power that is driven by the concentration of skill demand across firms.
{"title":"Monopsony, Job Tasks, and Labour Market Concentration","authors":"Samuel Dodini, Michael Lovenheim, Kjell Salvanes, Alexander Willén","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends the monopsony literature by taking a task-based approach and estimating the causal effect of concentration on labour market outcomes. Using detailed employer-employee data from Norway, we find that our job task-based measure shows lower degrees of concentration than conventional industry-and occupation-based measures. Exploiting mass layoffs as exogenous shocks to local labour demand, we show that workers who experience mass separations in more concentrated markets have substantially worse subsequent labour market outcomes than workers in less-concentrated markets. Our results point to the existence of employer market power that is driven by the concentration of skill demand across firms.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139585032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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