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Dust and Death: Evidence from the West African Harmattan 尘埃与死亡:来自西非哈曼丹的证据
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead088
Achyuta Adhvaryu, Prashant Bharadwaj, James Fenske, Anant Nyshadham, Richard Stanley
Using two decades of data from twelve low-income countries in West Africa, we show that dust carried by harmattan trade winds increases infant and child mortality. Health investments respond to dust exposure, consistent with compensating behaviors. Despite these efforts, surviving children still exhibit negative health impacts. Our data allow us to investigate differential impacts over time and across countries. We find declining impacts over time, suggesting adaptation. Using national-level measures of macroeconomic conditions and health resources, we find suggestive evidence that both economic development and public health improvements have contributed to this adaptation, with health improvements playing a larger role.
利用西非十二个低收入国家二十年来的数据,我们发现哈曼丹贸易风携带的沙尘会增加婴儿和儿童死亡率。健康投资对沙尘暴露做出了反应,这与补偿行为是一致的。尽管做出了这些努力,幸存儿童的健康仍然受到了负面影响。我们的数据使我们能够研究不同时期和不同国家的不同影响。我们发现,随着时间的推移,影响在不断减小,这表明我们已经适应了这种变化。利用国家层面的宏观经济条件和卫生资源衡量标准,我们发现有暗示性证据表明,经济发展和公共卫生的改善都促进了这种适应,而卫生改善的作用更大。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the Cost of Capital and the Profit Share 估算资本成本和利润份额
Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae001
Has van Vlokhoven
Capital costs are not directly observed since firms own part of their capital stock. I show under which assumptions variation in firms’ input choices reveals the user cost of capital. Using Compustat data for the United States, I find that the costs of tangible capital as a share of output have not been increasing while economic profits have been increasing over the past 50 years from around 4% to around 9% of sales. About three-quarters of the fall in the labour share is associated with a rise in profits and the remainder is associated with a rise in intangible intensity.
由于企业拥有部分资本存量,因此无法直接观察到资本成本。我展示了在哪些假设条件下,企业投入选择的变化会揭示资本的用户成本。通过使用美国的 Compustat 数据,我发现有形资本成本在产出中所占的份额并没有增加,而经济利润在过去 50 年中一直在增加,从销售额的 4% 左右增加到 9% 左右。劳动份额的下降约四分之三与利润上升有关,其余部分与无形密集度上升有关。
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引用次数: 0
On the Importance of Social Status for Occupational Sorting 论社会地位对职业分类的重要性
Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead119
Paweł Gola
Models of self-selection predict that occupations with flat wage schedules attract workers of lower average ability. However, in certain prominent occupations such as academia and the civil service, wages are flat yet the average skill level is high. In this paper, I examine whether social status concerns can explain this puzzle. I find that within-occupation status allows flat-wage occupations to attract predominantly high-skilled workers, but only at the cost of attracting few workers overall. If, however, workers care both about within- and between-occupation status, then occupations paying flat wages can be arbitrarily large and attract workers of high average skill. I conclude that within- and between-occupation status concerns act as complements.
根据自我选择模型的预测,工资水平持平的职业会吸引平均能力较低的工人。然而,在某些著名的职业中,如学术界和公务员,工资水平持平,但平均技能水平却很高。在本文中,我研究了社会地位问题能否解释这一谜题。我发现,职业内部的地位使得工资持平的职业能够主要吸引高技能工人,但代价是总体上吸引的工人很少。然而,如果工人既关心职业内地位,也关心职业间地位,那么支付统一工资的职业就可以任意做大,并吸引平均技能高的工人。我的结论是,对职业内和职业间地位的关注是互补的。
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引用次数: 0
P-Hacking, Data Type and Data-Sharing Policy P 黑客、数据类型和数据共享政策
Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead104
Abel Brodeur, Nikolai Cook, Carina Neisser
This paper examines the relationship between p-hacking, publication bias, and data-sharing policies. We collect 38,876 test statistics from 1,106 articles published in leading economic journals between 2002–2020. We find that while data-sharing policies increase the provision of data, they do not decrease the extent of p-hacking and publication bias. Similarly, articles that use hard-to-access administrative data or third-party surveys, as compared to those that use easier-to-access (e.g., author-collected) data are not different in their p-hacking and publication extent. Voluntary provision of data by authors on their homepages offers no evidence of reduced p-hacking.
本文研究了 P 黑客、出版偏差和数据共享政策之间的关系。我们收集了 2002-2020 年间发表在主要经济期刊上的 1,106 篇文章中的 38,876 个测试统计数据。我们发现,虽然数据共享政策增加了数据的提供,但并没有减少黑客攻击和出版偏差的程度。同样,使用难以获取的行政数据或第三方调查数据的文章,与使用较易获取的数据(如作者收集的数据)的文章相比,在p-hacking和出版程度上并无不同。作者在自己的主页上自愿提供数据并不能证明黑客行为有所减少。
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引用次数: 0
School Choice with Consent: An Experiment 经同意的学校选择:一项实验
Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead120
Claudia Cerrone, Yoan Hermstrüwer, Onur Kesten
Public school choice often yields student assignments that are neither fair nor efficient. The efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance mechanism (EADAM) allows students to consent to waive priorities that have no effect on their assignments. A burgeoning recent literature places EADAM at the centre of the trade-off between efficiency and fairness in school choice. Meanwhile, the Flemish Ministry of Education has taken the first steps to implement this algorithm in Belgium. We provide the first experimental evidence on the performance of EADAM against the celebrated deferred acceptance mechanism (DA). We find that both efficiency and truth-telling rates are higher under EADAM than under DA, even though EADAM is not strategy-proof. When the priority waiver is enforced, efficiency further increases, while truth-telling rates decrease relative to the EADAM variants where students can dodge the waiver. Our results challenge the importance of strategy-proofness as a prerequisite for truth-telling and portend a new trade-off between efficiency and vulnerability to preference manipulation.
公立学校的选择往往会导致学生分配既不公平也不高效。效率调整后的延迟接受机制(EADAM)允许学生同意放弃对其派位没有影响的优先权。最近有大量文献将 EADAM 作为择校中效率与公平权衡的核心。与此同时,佛兰德教育部已率先在比利时实施这一算法。我们首次提供了 EADAM 与著名的延迟接受机制(DA)相比的实验证据。我们发现,EADAM 的效率和真实率均高于 DA,尽管 EADAM 并非不受策略影响。当强制执行优先权豁免时,效率进一步提高,而相对于学生可以躲避豁免的 EADAM 变体,真话率则有所下降。我们的结果挑战了策略防伪作为说真话的前提条件的重要性,并预示着在效率和易受偏好操纵影响之间的新权衡。
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引用次数: 11
Solar Eclipses and the Origins of Critical Thinking and Complexity 日食与批判性思维和复杂性的起源
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead117
Anastasia Litina, Èric Roca Fernández
This paper relates curiosity to economic development through its impact on human capital formation and technological advancement in pre-modern times. More specifically, we propose that exposure to inexplicable phenomena prompts curiosity and thinking in an attempt to comprehend these mysteries, thus raising human capital and technology, and ultimately, fostering growth. We focus on solar eclipses as one particular trigger of curiosity and empirically establish a robust relationship between their number and several proxies of economic prosperity. We also offer evidence compatible with the human capital and technological increases we postulate, finding a more intricate thinking process and more developed technology among societies more exposed to solar eclipses. Among other factors, we study the development of written language, the playing of strategy games and the accuracy of folkloric explanations for eclipses, as well as the number of tasks undertaken in a society, their relative complexity, and broad technological indicators. Lastly, we document rising curiosity both at the social and individual level: societies incorporate more terms related to curiosity and eclipses in their folklore, and people who observed a total solar eclipse during their childhood were more likely to have entered a scientific occupation.
本文通过好奇心对前现代人力资本形成和技术进步的影响,将好奇心与经济发展联系起来。更具体地说,我们认为,接触无法解释的现象会激发人们的好奇心和思考力,试图理解这些奥秘,从而提高人力资本和技术水平,最终促进经济增长。我们将日食作为引发好奇心的一个特殊因素,并通过实证研究在日食的数量与经济繁荣的几个代用指标之间建立了稳健的关系。我们还提供了与我们假设的人力资本和技术增长相一致的证据,发现在更多接触日食的社会中,人们的思维过程更加复杂,技术更加发达。除其他因素外,我们还研究了书面语言的发展、策略游戏的玩法、对日食的民俗解释的准确性,以及一个社会所承担任务的数量、相对复杂程度和广泛的技术指标。最后,我们记录了社会和个人层面上日益增长的好奇心:社会在其民俗中纳入了更多与好奇心和日食有关的词汇,在童年时期观测到日全食的人更有可能从事科学职业。
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引用次数: 0
Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh 竞争性专制选举中信息宣传的党派效应:孟加拉国的证据
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead115
Firoz Ahmed, Roland Hodler, Asad Islam
To study the effects of non-partisan information and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns on the partisan composition of the voting population in competitive authoritarian elections, we conducted a large-scale field experiment prior to the 2018 Bangladeshi general election. Our two treatments highlight that high turnout increases the winning party’s legitimacy and that election outcomes matter for policy outcomes. Both treatments increase turnout (measured by ink marks) in government strongholds but decrease turnout in opposition strongholds. We explain the withdrawal of treated opposition supporters and conclude that non-partisan information and GOTV campaigns can further tilt the uneven playing field in competitive authoritarian elections.
为了研究在竞争激烈的专制选举中,非党派信息和 "拉票"(GOTV)活动对选民党派构成的影响,我们在 2018 年孟加拉国大选前进行了一次大规模的实地实验。我们的两种处理方法都强调了高投票率会提高获胜政党的合法性,以及选举结果对政策结果的影响。两种处理方法都提高了政府据点的投票率(以墨水标记衡量),但降低了反对党据点的投票率。我们解释了反对派支持者退出选举的原因,并得出结论:在竞争激烈的专制选举中,非党派信息和 GOTV 运动可以进一步改善不均衡的竞争环境。
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引用次数: 0
Taking Back Control? Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Retirement on Locus of Control 夺回控制权?退休对控制权影响的准实验证据
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead118
Andrew E Clark, Rong Zhu
We use Australian panel data to examine the impact of retirement on individual locus of control, a socio-emotional skill with substantial explanatory power for a broad range of life outcomes. Exploiting the eligibility age for the Australian Age Pension, we find that retirement leads to increased internal locus of control. This greater internal control explains around one-third and one-fifth of the positive effects of retirement on health and subjective well-being, respectively. We also show that locus of control is much more malleable at retirement than the other socio-emotional skills of the Big-Five personality traits, risk and time preferences, and trust.
我们利用澳大利亚的面板数据研究了退休对个人控制力的影响,这种社会情感技能对广泛的生活结果具有很强的解释力。利用澳大利亚养老金的合格年龄,我们发现退休会导致内部控制力的增强。这种更强的内部控制分别解释了退休对健康和主观幸福感产生的约三分之一和五分之一的积极影响。我们还发现,与其他社会情感技能(包括五大人格特质、风险偏好、时间偏好和信任)相比,退休后控制力的可塑性更大。
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引用次数: 0
Social Value of Public Information in Bargaining 公共信息在谈判中的社会价值
Pub Date : 2023-12-21 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead114
Deepal Basak
We consider a bargaining game in which both sides are uncertain about their opponent’s commitment, which leads to delay and welfare loss in equilibrium. We address the following question: does ex ante better public information about a player improve expected social welfare? We show that if the information cannot turn the bargaining table (turns the weak bargainer into a strong one and vice versa), more information does not help. More information about a weak bargainer has zero impact, whereas that about the strong bargainer is strictly detrimental. Moreover, by specializing in a binary signal structure, we show that if the information is more accurate in every state, it improves social welfare when it can turn the table.
我们考虑了一个讨价还价的博弈,在这个博弈中,双方都不确定对手的承诺,这会导致延迟和均衡时的福利损失。我们要解决的问题是:事前更好地公开某一方的信息是否会提高预期社会福利?我们的研究表明,如果信息不能扭转谈判桌上的局面(将弱势谈判者变成强势谈判者,反之亦然),那么更多的信息也无济于事。关于弱势谈判者的更多信息影响为零,而关于强势谈判者的更多信息则完全有害。此外,通过对二元信号结构的专门研究,我们表明,如果信息在每种状态下都更准确,那么当它能扭转谈判桌时,它就能改善社会福利。
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引用次数: 0
Surveillance and Self-Control 监督与自控
Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead111
Deborah A Cobb-Clark, Sarah C Dahmann, Daniel A Kamhöfer, Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch
This paper studies important determinants of adult self-control using population-representative data and exploiting Germany’s division as quasi-experimental variation. We find that former East Germans have substantially more self-control than West Germans and provide evidence for government surveillance as a possible underlying mechanism. We thereby demonstrate that institutional factors can shape people’s self-control. Moreover, we find that self-control increases linearly with age. In contrast to previous findings for children, there is no gender gap in adult self-control and family background does not predict self-control.
本文使用具有人口代表性的数据,利用德国的分裂作为准实验变量,研究了成人自我控制的重要决定因素。我们发现,前东德人的自我控制能力大大高于西德人,并提供了政府监控可能是其潜在机制的证据。我们由此证明,制度因素可以影响人们的自我控制能力。此外,我们还发现自我控制能力随年龄呈线性增长。与以往对儿童的研究结果不同,成人的自我控制能力不存在性别差异,家庭背景也不能预测自我控制能力。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Economic Journal
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