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Riding Wavelets: A Method to Discover New Classes of Price Jumps 驾驭小波:发现新一类价格跳跃的方法
Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: arxiv-2404.16467
Cecilia Aubrun, Rudy Morel, Michael Benzaquen, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significantattention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, andsocial physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherentto the system (endogenous), or from external shocks (exogenous). Thepossibility of separating these two classes of events has critical implicationsfor professionals in those fields. We introduce an unsupervised frameworkleveraging a representation of jump time-series based on wavelet coefficientsand apply it to stock price jumps. In line with previous work, we recover thefact that the time-asymmetry of volatility is a major feature. Mean-reversionand trend are found to be two additional key features, allowing us to identifynew classes of jumps. Furthermore, thanks to our wavelet-based representation,we investigate the reflexive properties of co-jumps, which occur when multiplestocks experience price jumps within the same minute. We argue that asignificant fraction of co-jumps results from an endogenous contagionmechanism.
级联事件和极端事件在金融市场、地震学和社会物理学等不同领域引起了极大关注。此类事件可能来自系统固有的内部动力(内生),也可能来自外部冲击(外生)。能否将这两类事件区分开来,对这些领域的专业人士有着至关重要的影响。我们引入了一个无监督框架,利用基于小波系数的跳跃时间序列表示法,并将其应用于股价跳跃。与之前的工作一样,我们发现波动的时间不对称是一个主要特征。我们发现均值反转和趋势是另外两个关键特征,这使我们能够识别新的跳跃类别。此外,得益于我们基于小波的表示方法,我们研究了共同跳空的反身特性,即多只股票在同一分钟内出现价格跳空。我们认为,共同跳空的重要部分来自内生传染机制。
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引用次数: 0
Multiblock MEV opportunities & protections in dynamic AMMs 动态 AMM 中的多区块 MEV 机遇与保护
Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: arxiv-2404.15489
Matthew Willetts, Christian Harrington
Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) in Constant Function Market Making is fairlywell understood. Does having dynamic weights, as found in liquidity boostrappools (LBPs), Temporal-function market makers (TFMMs), and Replicating marketmakers (RMMs), introduce new attack vectors? In this paper we explore howinter-block weight changes can be analogous to trades, and can potentially leadto a multi-block MEV attack. New inter-block protections required to guardagainst this new attack vector are analysed. We also carry our a raft ofnumerical simulations, more than 450 million potential attack scenarios,showing both successful attacks and successful defense.
恒定函数做市商中的最大可提取价值(MEV)已被广泛了解。在流动性增强工具(LBPs)、时间函数做市商(TFMMs)和复制做市商(RMMs)中发现的动态权重是否会引入新的攻击向量?本文探讨了区块间权重变化如何类似于交易,并可能导致多区块 MEV 攻击。本文分析了防范这种新攻击向量所需的新的区块间保护措施。我们还进行了大量的数字模拟,超过 4.5 亿个潜在的攻击场景,显示了成功的攻击和成功的防御。
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引用次数: 0
Algorithmic Market Making in Spot Precious Metals 贵金属现货的算法做市
Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: arxiv-2404.15478
Alexander Barzykin, Philippe Bergault, Olivier Guéant
The primary challenge of market making in spot precious metals is navigatingthe liquidity that is mainly provided by futures contracts. The Exchange forPhysical (EFP) spread, which is the price difference between futures and spot,plays a pivotal role and exhibits multiple modes of relaxation corresponding tothe diverse trading horizons of market participants. In this paper, weintroduce a novel framework utilizing a nested Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process tomodel the EFP spread. We demonstrate the suitability of the framework formaximizing the expected P&L of a market maker while minimizing inventory riskacross both spot and futures. Using a computationally efficient technique toapproximate the solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation associatedwith the corresponding stochastic optimal control problem, our methodologyfacilitates strategy optimization on demand in near real-time, paving the wayfor advanced algorithmic market making that capitalizes on the co-integrationproperties intrinsic to the precious metals sector.
贵金属现货做市的主要挑战是如何驾驭主要由期货合约提供的流动性。期现价差(Exchange forPhysical,EFP)是期货与现货之间的价差,它起着举足轻重的作用,并表现出与市场参与者不同的交易视野相对应的多种放松模式。在本文中,我们提出了一个利用嵌套奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克过程来模拟 EFP 价差的新框架。我们证明了该框架的适用性,即在最大限度地降低现货和期货库存风险的同时,最大限度地提高做市商的预期收益(P&L)。我们的方法使用一种计算效率高的技术来近似求解与相应随机最优控制问题相关的汉密尔顿-雅各比-贝尔曼方程,从而能够近乎实时地按需优化策略,为利用贵金属行业固有的协整特性进行高级算法做市铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the Bid-Ask: Strategic Insights into Spread Prediction and the Global Mid-Price Phenomenon 超越买入价-卖出价:价差预测和全球中间价现象的战略启示
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: arxiv-2404.11722
Yifan He, Abootaleb Shirvani, Barret Shao, Svetlozar Rachev, Frank Fabozzi
This study introduces novel concepts in the analysis of limit order books(LOBs) with a focus on unveiling strategic insights into spread prediction andunderstanding the global mid-price (GMP) phenomenon. We define and analyze thetotal market order book bid--ask spread (TMOBBAS) and GMP, showcasing theirsignificance in providing a deeper understanding of market dynamics beyondtraditional LOB models. Employing high-frequency data, we comprehensivelyexamine these concepts through various methodological lenses, including tailbehavior analysis, dynamics of log-returns, and risk--return performanceevaluation. Our findings reveal the intricate behavior of TMOBBAS and GMP underdifferent market conditions, offering new perspectives on the liquidity,volatility, and efficiency of markets. This paper not only contributes to theacademic discourse on financial markets but also presents practicalimplications for traders, risk managers, and policymakers seeking to navigatethe complexities of modern financial systems.
本研究介绍了限价订单簿(LOB)分析中的新概念,重点在于揭示价差预测的战略性见解和理解全球中间价(GMP)现象。我们定义并分析了总市场订单簿买卖价差(TMOBBAS)和全球中间价(GMP),展示了它们在提供超越传统限价订单簿模型的更深入市场动态理解方面的重要意义。我们利用高频数据,通过尾部行为分析、对数收益动态和风险收益绩效评估等多种方法论视角,全面考察了这些概念。我们的研究结果揭示了 TMOBBAS 和 GMP 在不同市场条件下的复杂行为,为市场的流动性、波动性和效率提供了新的视角。本文不仅为金融市场的学术讨论做出了贡献,还为交易者、风险管理者和政策制定者在现代金融体系的复杂性中寻求导航提供了实际启示。
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引用次数: 0
DEX Specs: A Mean Field Approach to DeFi Currency Exchanges DEX 规格:DeFi 货币交易所的平均值方法
Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: arxiv-2404.09090
Erhan Bayraktar, Asaf Cohen, April Nellis
We investigate the behavior of liquidity providers (LPs) by modeling adecentralized cryptocurrency exchange (DEX) based on Uniswap v3. LPs withheterogeneous characteristics choose optimal liquidity positions subject touncertainty regarding the size of exogenous incoming transactions and theprices of assets in the wider market. They engage in a game among themselves,and the resulting liquidity distribution determines the exchange rate dynamicsand potential arbitrage opportunities of the pool. We calibrate thedistribution of LP characteristics based on Uniswap data and the equilibriumstrategy resulting from this mean-field game produces pool exchange ratedynamics and liquidity evolution consistent with observed pool behavior. Wesubsequently introduce Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) bots who performJust-In-Time (JIT) liquidity attacks, and develop a Stackelberg game betweenLPs and bots. This addition results in more accurate simulated pool exchangerate dynamics and stronger predictive power regarding the evolution of the poolliquidity distribution.
我们通过对基于 Uniswap v3 的中心化加密货币交易所(DEX)建模,研究了流动性提供者(LPs)的行为。具有异质性特征的 LP 在面临外生流入交易规模和更广泛市场中资产价格的不确定性时,会选择最优的流动性头寸。它们之间进行博弈,由此产生的流动性分布决定了池中的汇率动态和潜在套利机会。我们根据 Uniswap 数据校准了 LP 特征的分布,这种均值场博弈产生的均衡策略产生了与观察到的池行为一致的池汇率动态和流动性演变。随后,我们引入了最大可提取价值(MEV)机器人,它们会执行即时(JIT)流动性攻击,并在 LP 和机器人之间展开堆栈博弈。这一补充使得模拟的池交换率动态更为准确,对池流动性分布的演变也有更强的预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring Arbitrage Losses and Profitability of AMM Liquidity 衡量套利损失和 AMM 流动性的盈利能力
Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: arxiv-2404.05803
Robin Fritsch, Andrea Canidio
This paper presents the results of a comprehensive empirical study of lossesto arbitrageurs (following the formalization of loss-versus-rebalancing by[Milionis et al., 2022]) incurred by liquidity on automated market makers(AMMs). Through a systematic comparison between historical earnings fromtrading fees and losses to arbitrageurs, our findings indicate an insufficientcompensation from fees for arbitrage losses across many of the largest AMMliquidity pools (on Uniswap). Remarkably, we identify a higher profitabilityamong less capital-efficient Uniswap v2 pools compared to their Uniswap v3counterparts. Moreover, we investigate a possible LVR mitigation by quantifyinghow arbitrage losses reduce with shorter block times. We observe notablevariations in the manner of decline of arbitrage losses across differenttrading pairs. For instance, when comparing 100ms block times to Ethereum'scurrent 12-second block times, the decrease in losses to arbitrageurs rangesbetween 20% to 70%, depending on the specific trading pair.
本文介绍了对自动做市商(AMM)的流动性给套利者造成的损失(按照 Milionis 等人[Milionis et al., 2022]对损失与平衡的正式定义)进行全面实证研究的结果。通过系统比较历史交易费用收益和套利者损失,我们的研究结果表明,在许多最大的自动做市商流动性池(Uniswap)中,费用对套利损失的补偿不足。值得注意的是,与资本效率较低的 Uniswap v2 池相比,Uniswap v3 池的盈利能力更高。此外,我们还通过量化套利损失是如何随着区块时间的缩短而减少的,研究了一种可能的 LVR 缓解方法。我们观察到不同交易对的套利损失下降方式存在明显差异。例如,将 100 毫秒的区块链时间与以太坊当前的 12 秒区块链时间相比,套利者的损失减少了 20% 到 70%,这取决于具体的交易对。
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引用次数: 0
Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting 用于金融时间序列预测的有监督自动编码器 MLP
Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: arxiv-2404.01866
Bartosz Bieganowski, Robert Slepaczuk
This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecastingwith the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming toimprove investment strategy performance. It specifically examines the impact ofnoise augmentation and triple barrier labeling on risk-adjusted returns, usingthe Sharpe and Information Ratios. The study focuses on the S&P 500 index,EUR/USD, and BTC/USD as the traded assets from January 1, 2010, to April 30,2022. Findings indicate that supervised autoencoders, with balanced noiseaugmentation and bottleneck size, significantly boost strategy effectiveness.However, excessive noise and large bottleneck sizes can impair performance,highlighting the importance of precise parameter tuning. This paper alsopresents a derivation of a novel optimization metric that can be used withtriple barrier labeling. The results of this study have substantial policyimplications, suggesting that financial institutions and regulators couldleverage techniques presented to enhance market stability and investorprotection, while also encouraging more informed and strategic investmentapproaches in various financial sectors.
本文研究了通过有监督自动编码器使用神经网络增强金融时间序列预测的问题,旨在提高投资策略的性能。它使用夏普比率和信息比率,具体研究了噪声增强和三重屏障标签对风险调整收益的影响。研究以标准普尔 500 指数、欧元/美元和 BTC/USD 作为交易资产,时间跨度为 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 4 月 30 日。研究结果表明,有监督的自动编码器在均衡噪声增强和瓶颈大小的情况下,能显著提高策略的有效性。然而,过多的噪声和过大的瓶颈大小会影响性能,这就凸显了精确调整参数的重要性。本文还推导了一种可用于三重障碍标记的新型优化指标。本研究的结果具有重要的政策意义,表明金融机构和监管机构可以利用本文提出的技术来增强市场稳定性和投资者保护,同时也鼓励各金融行业采取更明智的战略性投资方法。
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引用次数: 0
Targeted aspect-based emotion analysis to detect opportunities and precaution in financial Twitter messages 基于方面的定向情感分析,发现金融推特信息中的机遇和预防措施
Pub Date : 2024-03-30 DOI: arxiv-2404.08665
Silvia García-Méndez, Francisco de Arriba-Pérez, Ana Barros-Vila, Francisco J. González-Castaño
Microblogging platforms, of which Twitter is a representative example, arevaluable information sources for market screening and financial models. Inthem, users voluntarily provide relevant information, including educatedknowledge on investments, reacting to the state of the stock markets inreal-time and, often, influencing this state. We are interested in the userforecasts in financial, social media messages expressing opportunities andprecautions about assets. We propose a novel Targeted Aspect-Based EmotionAnalysis (TABEA) system that can individually discern the financial emotions(positive and negative forecasts) on the different stock market assets in thesame tweet (instead of making an overall guess about that whole tweet). It isbased on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and Machine Learningstreaming algorithms. The system comprises a constituency parsing module forparsing the tweets and splitting them into simpler declarative clauses; anoffline data processing module to engineer textual, numerical and categoricalfeatures and analyse and select them based on their relevance; and a streamclassification module to continuously process tweets on-the-fly. Experimentalresults on a labelled data set endorse our solution. It achieves over 90%precision for the target emotions, financial opportunity, and precaution onTwitter. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work in the literature hasaddressed this problem despite its practical interest in decision-making, andwe are not aware of any previous NLP nor online Machine Learning approaches toTABEA.
微博平台是市场筛选和金融模型的宝贵信息来源,Twitter 就是其中的代表。在这些平台上,用户自愿提供相关信息,包括有关投资的知识,对股票市场的状态做出实时反应,并经常影响这种状态。我们感兴趣的是用户在金融、社交媒体信息中的预测,这些信息表达了有关资产的机会和注意事项。我们提出了一种新颖的基于方面的情感分析(Targeted Aspect-Based EmotionAnalysis,TABEA)系统,该系统可以单独识别同一条推文中不同股市资产的金融情感(正面和负面预测)(而不是对整条推文进行整体猜测)。该系统基于自然语言处理(NLP)技术和机器学习流算法。该系统包括一个选区解析模块,用于解析推文并将其拆分成更简单的陈述句;一个离线数据处理模块,用于设计文本、数字和分类特征,并根据其相关性进行分析和选择;以及一个流分类模块,用于持续即时处理推文。在标签数据集上的实验结果证明了我们的解决方案。它对目标情绪、金融机会和推特上的预防措施的准确率超过了 90%。据我们所知,尽管该问题在决策中具有实际意义,但之前的文献中并没有解决该问题的工作,而且我们也没有发现任何针对 TABEA 的 NLP 或在线机器学习方法。
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引用次数: 0
Reinforcement Learning in Agent-Based Market Simulation: Unveiling Realistic Stylized Facts and Behavior 基于代理的市场模拟中的强化学习:揭示真实的风格化事实和行为
Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: arxiv-2403.19781
Zhiyuan Yao, Zheng Li, Matthew Thomas, Ionut Florescu
Investors and regulators can greatly benefit from a realistic marketsimulator that enables them to anticipate the consequences of their decisionsin real markets. However, traditional rule-based market simulators often fallshort in accurately capturing the dynamic behavior of market participants,particularly in response to external market impact events or changes in thebehavior of other participants. In this study, we explore an agent-basedsimulation framework employing reinforcement learning (RL) agents. We presentthe implementation details of these RL agents and demonstrate that thesimulated market exhibits realistic stylized facts observed in real-worldmarkets. Furthermore, we investigate the behavior of RL agents when confrontedwith external market impacts, such as a flash crash. Our findings shed light onthe effectiveness and adaptability of RL-based agents within the simulation,offering insights into their response to significant market events.
投资者和监管者可以从逼真的市场模拟器中获益匪浅,这种模拟器可以让他们预测自己的决策在真实市场中的后果。然而,传统的基于规则的市场模拟器往往无法准确捕捉市场参与者的动态行为,尤其是对外部市场影响事件或其他参与者行为变化的反应。在本研究中,我们探索了一种采用强化学习(RL)代理的基于代理的模拟框架。我们介绍了这些 RL 代理的实现细节,并证明模拟市场展现了在现实世界市场中观察到的逼真的风格化事实。此外,我们还研究了 RL 代理在面对闪崩等外部市场影响时的行为。我们的研究结果阐明了基于 RL 的代理在模拟中的有效性和适应性,为它们应对重大市场事件提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Growth rate of liquidity provider's wealth in G3Ms 流动性提供者在 G3Ms 中的财富增长率
Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: arxiv-2403.18177
Cheuk Yin Lee, Shen-Ning Tung, Tai-Ho Wang
Geometric mean market makers (G3Ms), such as Uniswap and Balancer, representa widely used class of automated market makers (AMMs). These G3Ms arecharacterized by the following rule: the reserves of the AMM must maintain thesame (weighted) geometric mean before and after each trade. This paperinvestigates the effects of trading fees on liquidity providers' (LP)profitability in a G3M, as well as the adverse selection faced by LPs due toarbitrage activities involving a reference market. Our work expands the modeldescribed in previous studies for G3Ms, integrating transaction fees andcontinuous-time arbitrage into the analysis. Within this context, we analyzeG3M dynamics, characterized by stochastic storage processes, and calculate thegrowth rate of LP wealth. In particular, our results align with and extend theresults concerning the constant product market maker, commonly referred to asUniswap v2.
几何平均数做市商(G3Ms),如 Uniswap 和 Balancer,是广泛使用的一类自动做市商(AMMs)。这些 G3M 的特点是:AMM 的储备金在每次交易前后必须保持相同的(加权)几何平均数。本文研究了交易费用对 G3M 中流动性提供者(LP)盈利能力的影响,以及 LP 因涉及参考市场的套利活动而面临的逆向选择。我们的工作扩展了以往研究中描述的 G3M 模型,将交易费用和连续时间套利纳入分析。在此背景下,我们分析了以随机存储过程为特征的 G3M 动态,并计算了 LP 财富的增长率。特别是,我们的结果与恒定产品做市商(通常称为Uniswap v2)的结果一致,并对其进行了扩展。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure
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