Pub Date : 2024-04-08DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02075-y
Andrew Francis, Daniele Marchei, Mike Steel
It was recently shown that a large class of phylogenetic networks, the ‘labellable’ networks, is in bijection with the set of ‘expanding’ covers of finite sets. In this paper, we show how several prominent classes of phylogenetic networks can be characterised purely in terms of properties of their associated covers. These classes include the tree-based, tree-child, orchard, tree-sibling, and normal networks. In the opposite direction, we give an example of how a restriction on the set of expanding covers can define a new class of networks, which we call ‘spinal’ phylogenetic networks.
{"title":"Phylogenetic network classes through the lens of expanding covers","authors":"Andrew Francis, Daniele Marchei, Mike Steel","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02075-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02075-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It was recently shown that a large class of phylogenetic networks, the ‘labellable’ networks, is in bijection with the set of ‘expanding’ covers of finite sets. In this paper, we show how several prominent classes of phylogenetic networks can be characterised purely in terms of properties of their associated covers. These classes include the tree-based, tree-child, orchard, tree-sibling, and normal networks. In the opposite direction, we give an example of how a restriction on the set of expanding covers can define a new class of networks, which we call ‘spinal’ phylogenetic networks.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-08DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02055-2
Nathan Ranc, John W. Cain, Francesca Cagnacci, Paul R. Moorcroft
Most animals live in spatially-constrained home ranges. The prevalence of this space-use pattern in nature suggests that general biological mechanisms are likely to be responsible for their occurrence. Individual-based models of animal movement in both theoretical and empirical settings have demonstrated that the revisitation of familiar areas through memory can lead to the formation of stable home ranges. Here, we formulate a deterministic, mechanistic home range model that includes the interplay between a bi-component memory and resource preference, and evaluate resulting patterns of space-use. We show that a bi-component memory process can lead to the formation of stable home ranges and control its size, with greater spatial memory capabilities being associated with larger home range size. The interplay between memory and resource preferences gives rise to a continuum of space-use patterns–from spatially-restricted movements into a home range that is influenced by local resource heterogeneity, to diffusive-like movements dependent on larger-scale resource distributions, such as in nomadism. Future work could take advantage of this model formulation to evaluate the role of memory in shaping individual performance in response to varying spatio-temporal resource patterns.
{"title":"The role of memory-based movements in the formation of animal home ranges","authors":"Nathan Ranc, John W. Cain, Francesca Cagnacci, Paul R. Moorcroft","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02055-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02055-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most animals live in spatially-constrained home ranges. The prevalence of this space-use pattern in nature suggests that general biological mechanisms are likely to be responsible for their occurrence. Individual-based models of animal movement in both theoretical and empirical settings have demonstrated that the revisitation of familiar areas through memory can lead to the formation of stable home ranges. Here, we formulate a deterministic, mechanistic home range model that includes the interplay between a bi-component memory and resource preference, and evaluate resulting patterns of space-use. We show that a bi-component memory process can lead to the formation of stable home ranges and control its size, with greater spatial memory capabilities being associated with larger home range size. The interplay between memory and resource preferences gives rise to a continuum of space-use patterns–from spatially-restricted movements into a home range that is influenced by local resource heterogeneity, to diffusive-like movements dependent on larger-scale resource distributions, such as in nomadism. Future work could take advantage of this model formulation to evaluate the role of memory in shaping individual performance in response to varying spatio-temporal resource patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-05DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02080-1
Adam Mielke, Mads Peter Sørensen, John Wyller
We design a linear chain trick algorithm for dynamical systems for which we have oscillatory time histories in the distributed time delay. We make use of this algorithmic framework to analyse memory effects in disease evolution in a population. The modelling is based on a susceptible-infected-recovered SIR—model and on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered SEIR—model through a kernel that dampens the activity based on the recent history of infectious individuals. This corresponds to adaptive behavior in the population or through governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. We use the linear chain trick to show that such a model may be written in a Markovian way, and we analyze the stability of the system. We find that the adaptive behavior gives rise to either a stable equilibrium point or a stable limit cycle for a close to constant number of susceptibles, i.e. locally in time. We also show that the attack rate for this model is lower than it would be without the dampening, although the adaptive behavior disappears as time goes to infinity and the number of infected goes to zero.
我们为分布式时间延迟中具有振荡时间历史的动态系统设计了一种线性链技巧算法。我们利用这一算法框架来分析种群中疾病演化的记忆效应。建模基于易感-感染-恢复的 SIR 模型和易感-暴露-感染-恢复的 SEIR 模型,通过内核根据感染个体的近期历史抑制活动。这相当于人群中的适应行为或通过政府的非药物干预。我们使用线性链技巧来证明这种模型可以用马尔可夫方法来书写,并分析了系统的稳定性。我们发现,在易感人群数量接近恒定的情况下,即在局部时间内,自适应行为会产生一个稳定的平衡点或一个稳定的极限循环。我们还证明,虽然随着时间的无穷大和受感染者数量的归零,自适应行为会消失,但该模型的攻击率比没有阻尼时要低。
{"title":"Memory effects in disease modelling through kernel estimates with oscillatory time history","authors":"Adam Mielke, Mads Peter Sørensen, John Wyller","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02080-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02080-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We design a linear chain trick algorithm for dynamical systems for which we have oscillatory time histories in the distributed time delay. We make use of this algorithmic framework to analyse memory effects in disease evolution in a population. The modelling is based on a susceptible-infected-recovered SIR—model and on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered SEIR—model through a kernel that dampens the activity based on the recent history of infectious individuals. This corresponds to adaptive behavior in the population or through governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. We use the linear chain trick to show that such a model may be written in a Markovian way, and we analyze the stability of the system. We find that the adaptive behavior gives rise to either a stable equilibrium point or a stable limit cycle for a close to constant number of susceptibles, i.e. locally in time. We also show that the attack rate for this model is lower than it would be without the dampening, although the adaptive behavior disappears as time goes to infinity and the number of infected goes to zero.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-04DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02070-3
San-Xing Wu, Zhi-Cheng Wang, Shigui Ruan
In this paper, an age-structured predator–prey system with Beddington–DeAngelis (B–D) type functional response, prey refuge and harvesting is investigated, where the predator fertility function f(a) and the maturation function (beta (a)) are assumed to be piecewise functions related to their maturation period (tau ). Firstly, we rewrite the original system as a non-densely defined abstract Cauchy problem and show the existence of solutions. In particular, we discuss the existence and uniqueness of a positive equilibrium of the system. Secondly, we consider the maturation period (tau ) as a bifurcation parameter and show the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium by applying the integrated semigroup theory and Hopf bifurcation theorem. Moreover, the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of bifurcating periodic solutions are studied by applying the center manifold theorem and normal form theory. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate of the theoretical results and a brief discussion is presented.
{"title":"Hopf bifurcation in an age-structured predator–prey system with Beddington–DeAngelis functional response and constant harvesting","authors":"San-Xing Wu, Zhi-Cheng Wang, Shigui Ruan","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02070-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02070-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, an age-structured predator–prey system with Beddington–DeAngelis (B–D) type functional response, prey refuge and harvesting is investigated, where the predator fertility function <i>f</i>(<i>a</i>) and the maturation function <span>(beta (a))</span> are assumed to be piecewise functions related to their maturation period <span>(tau )</span>. Firstly, we rewrite the original system as a non-densely defined abstract Cauchy problem and show the existence of solutions. In particular, we discuss the existence and uniqueness of a positive equilibrium of the system. Secondly, we consider the maturation period <span>(tau )</span> as a bifurcation parameter and show the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium by applying the integrated semigroup theory and Hopf bifurcation theorem. Moreover, the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of bifurcating periodic solutions are studied by applying the center manifold theorem and normal form theory. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate of the theoretical results and a brief discussion is presented.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-03DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02079-8
Anna Zhigun, Mabel Lizzy Rajendran
Cell-cell adhesion plays a vital role in the development and maintenance of multicellular organisms. One of its functions is regulation of cell migration, such as occurs, e.g. during embryogenesis or in cancer. In this work, we develop a versatile multiscale approach to modelling a moving self-adhesive cell population that combines a careful microscopic description of a deterministic adhesion-driven motion component with an efficient mesoscopic representation of a stochastic velocity-jump process. This approach gives rise to mesoscopic models in the form of kinetic transport equations featuring multiple non-localities. Subsequent parabolic and hyperbolic scalings produce general classes of equations with non-local adhesion and myopic diffusion, a special case being the classical macroscopic model proposed in Armstrong et al. (J Theoret Biol 243(1): 98–113, 2006). Our simulations show how the combination of the two motion effects can unfold. Cell-cell adhesion relies on the subcellular cell adhesion molecule binding. Our approach lends itself conveniently to capturing this microscopic effect. On the macroscale, this results in an additional non-linear integral equation of a novel type that is coupled to the cell density equation.
{"title":"Modelling non-local cell-cell adhesion: a multiscale approach","authors":"Anna Zhigun, Mabel Lizzy Rajendran","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02079-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02079-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cell-cell adhesion plays a vital role in the development and maintenance of multicellular organisms. One of its functions is regulation of cell migration, such as occurs, e.g. during embryogenesis or in cancer. In this work, we develop a versatile multiscale approach to modelling a moving self-adhesive cell population that combines a careful microscopic description of a deterministic adhesion-driven motion component with an efficient mesoscopic representation of a stochastic velocity-jump process. This approach gives rise to mesoscopic models in the form of kinetic transport equations featuring multiple non-localities. Subsequent parabolic and hyperbolic scalings produce general classes of equations with non-local adhesion and myopic diffusion, a special case being the classical macroscopic model proposed in Armstrong et al. (J Theoret Biol 243(1): 98–113, 2006). Our simulations show how the combination of the two motion effects can unfold. Cell-cell adhesion relies on the subcellular cell adhesion molecule binding. Our approach lends itself conveniently to capturing this microscopic effect. On the macroscale, this results in an additional non-linear integral equation of a novel type that is coupled to the cell density equation.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-03DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02077-w
Zachary B. Hancock, Daniel Stern Cardinale
Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection has haunted theoretical population genetic literature since it was proposed in 1930, leading to numerous interpretations. Most of the confusion stemmed from Fisher’s own obscure presentation. By the 1970s, a clearer view of Fisher’s theorem had been achieved and it was found that, regardless of its utility or significance, it represents a general theorem of evolutionary biology. Basener and Sanford (J Math Biol 76:1589–1622, 2018) writing in JOMB, however, paint a different picture of the fundamental theorem as one hindered by its assumptions and incomplete due to its failure to explicitly incorporate mutational effects. They argue that Fisher saw his theorem as a “mathematical proof of Darwinian evolution”. In this reply, we show that, contrary to Basener and Sanford, Fisher’s theorem is a general theorem that applies to any evolving population, and that, far from their assertion that it needed to be expanded, the theorem already implicitly incorporates ancestor–descendant variation. We also show that their numerical simulations produce unrealistic results. Lastly, we argue that Basener and Sanford’s motivations were in undermining not merely Fisher’s theorem, but the concept of universal common descent itself.
{"title":"Back to the fundamentals: a reply to Basener and Sanford 2018","authors":"Zachary B. Hancock, Daniel Stern Cardinale","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02077-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02077-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection has haunted theoretical population genetic literature since it was proposed in 1930, leading to numerous interpretations. Most of the confusion stemmed from Fisher’s own obscure presentation. By the 1970s, a clearer view of Fisher’s theorem had been achieved and it was found that, regardless of its utility or significance, it represents a general theorem of evolutionary biology. Basener and Sanford (J Math Biol 76:1589–1622, 2018) writing in <i>JOMB</i>, however, paint a different picture of the fundamental theorem as one hindered by its assumptions and incomplete due to its failure to explicitly incorporate mutational effects. They argue that Fisher saw his theorem as a “mathematical proof of Darwinian evolution”. In this reply, we show that, contrary to Basener and Sanford, Fisher’s theorem is a general theorem that applies to any evolving population, and that, far from their assertion that it needed to be expanded, the theorem already implicitly incorporates ancestor–descendant variation. We also show that their numerical simulations produce unrealistic results. Lastly, we argue that Basener and Sanford’s motivations were in undermining not merely Fisher’s theorem, but the concept of universal common descent itself.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-02DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02066-z
Shuanglin Jing, Ling Xue, Hao Wang, Zhihang Peng
Diagnostic delay for TB infected individuals and the lack of TB vaccines for adults are the main challenges to achieve the goals of WHO by 2050. In order to evaluate the impacts of diagnostic delay and vaccination for adults on prevalence of TB, we propose an age-structured model with latent age and infection age, and we incorporate Mycobacterium TB in the environment and vaccination into the model. Diagnostic delay is indicated by the age of infection before receiving treatment. The threshold dynamics are established in terms of the basic reproduction number . When , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means that TB epidemic will die out; When , the disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive; there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is globally attractive when . We estimate that the basic reproduction number (95% CI (0.3060, 0.7556)) in Jiangsu Province, which means that TB epidemic will die out. However, we find that the annual number of new TB cases by 2050 is 1,151 (95%CI: (138, 8,014)), which means that it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO by 2050. To this end, we evaluate the possibility of achieving the goals of WHO if we start vaccinating adults and reduce diagnostic delay in 2025. Our results demonstrate that when the diagnostic delay is reduced from longer than four months to four months, or 20% adults are vaccinated, the goal of WHO in 2050 can be achieved, and 73,137 (95%CI: (23,906, 234,086)) and 54,828 (95%CI: (15,811, 206,468)) individuals will be prevented from being infected from 2025 to 2050, respectively. The modeling approaches and simulation results used in this work can help policymakers design control measures to reduce the prevalence of TB.
结核病感染者的诊断延迟和成人结核病疫苗的缺乏是实现世界卫生组织 2050 年目标的主要挑战。为了评估成人结核病诊断延迟和疫苗接种对结核病流行的影响,我们提出了一个具有潜伏年龄和感染年龄的年龄结构模型,并将环境中的结核分枝杆菌和疫苗接种纳入模型。诊断延迟由接受治疗前的感染年龄表示。阈值动态是根据基本繁殖数 R 0 确定的。当 R 0 为 1 时,无病均衡是全局渐近稳定的,这意味着结核病流行将消亡;当 R 0 = 1 时,无病均衡是全局有吸引力的;当 R 0 > 1 时,存在唯一的流行均衡,且流行均衡是全局有吸引力的。我们估计江苏省的基本繁殖数 R 0 = 0.5320 (95% CI (0.3060, 0.7556)),这意味着结核病流行将消亡。然而,我们发现,到 2050 年,每年新发结核病病例数为 1,151 例(95%CI:(138, 8,014)),这意味着到 2050 年实现世界卫生组织的目标具有挑战性。为此,我们评估了如果从 2025 年开始为成人接种疫苗并减少诊断延迟,实现世界卫生组织目标的可能性。我们的结果表明,如果诊断延迟时间从四个月以上缩短到四个月,或者 20% 的成年人接种疫苗,就可以实现世卫组织 2050 年的目标,从 2025 年到 2050 年,将分别有 73,137 人(95%CI:(23,906, 234,086)) 和 54,828 人(95%CI:(15,811, 206,468)) 不受感染。本研究中使用的建模方法和模拟结果可以帮助政策制定者设计控制措施,降低结核病的流行率。
{"title":"Global analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with an application to Jiangsu, China.","authors":"Shuanglin Jing, Ling Xue, Hao Wang, Zhihang Peng","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02066-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-024-02066-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Diagnostic delay for TB infected individuals and the lack of TB vaccines for adults are the main challenges to achieve the goals of WHO by 2050. In order to evaluate the impacts of diagnostic delay and vaccination for adults on prevalence of TB, we propose an age-structured model with latent age and infection age, and we incorporate Mycobacterium TB in the environment and vaccination into the model. Diagnostic delay is indicated by the age of infection before receiving treatment. The threshold dynamics are established in terms of the basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> . When <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo><</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means that TB epidemic will die out; When <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> , the disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive; there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is globally attractive when <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>></mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> . We estimate that the basic reproduction number <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0.5320</mn></mrow> </math> (95% CI (0.3060, 0.7556)) in Jiangsu Province, which means that TB epidemic will die out. However, we find that the annual number of new TB cases by 2050 is 1,151 (95%CI: (138, 8,014)), which means that it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO by 2050. To this end, we evaluate the possibility of achieving the goals of WHO if we start vaccinating adults and reduce diagnostic delay in 2025. Our results demonstrate that when the diagnostic delay is reduced from longer than four months to four months, or 20% adults are vaccinated, the goal of WHO in 2050 can be achieved, and 73,137 (95%CI: (23,906, 234,086)) and 54,828 (95%CI: (15,811, 206,468)) individuals will be prevented from being infected from 2025 to 2050, respectively. The modeling approaches and simulation results used in this work can help policymakers design control measures to reduce the prevalence of TB.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140337477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-02DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02078-9
Ivy J. Hindle, Lawrence K. Forbes, Stephen J. Walters, Scott Carver
The use of therapeutic agents is a critical option to manage wildlife disease, but their implementation is usually spatially constrained. We seek to expand knowledge around the effectiveness of management of environmentally-transmitted Sarcoptes scabiei on a host population, by studying the effect of a spatially constrained treatment regime on disease dynamics in the bare-nosed wombat Vombatus ursinus. A host population of wombats is modelled using a system of non-linear partial differential equations, a spatially-varying treatment regime is applied to this population and the dynamics are studied over a period of several years. Treatment could result in mite decrease within the treatment region, extending to a lesser degree outside, with significant increases in wombat population. However, the benefits of targeted treatment regions within an environment are shown to be dependent on conditions at the start (endemic vs. disease free), as well as on the locations of these special regions (centre of the wombat population or against a geographical boundary). This research demonstrates the importance of understanding the state of the environment and populations before treatment commences, the effects of re-treatment schedules within the treatment region, and the transient large-scale changes in mite numbers that can be brought about by sudden changes to the environment. It also demonstrates that, with good knowledge of the host-pathogen dynamics and the spatial terrain, it is possible to achieve substantial reduction in mite numbers within the target region, with increases in wombat numbers throughout the environment.
{"title":"The effects of spatially-constrained treatment regions upon a model of wombat mange","authors":"Ivy J. Hindle, Lawrence K. Forbes, Stephen J. Walters, Scott Carver","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02078-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02078-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The use of therapeutic agents is a critical option to manage wildlife disease, but their implementation is usually spatially constrained. We seek to expand knowledge around the effectiveness of management of environmentally-transmitted <i>Sarcoptes scabiei</i> on a host population, by studying the effect of a spatially constrained treatment regime on disease dynamics in the bare-nosed wombat <i>Vombatus ursinus</i>. A host population of wombats is modelled using a system of non-linear partial differential equations, a spatially-varying treatment regime is applied to this population and the dynamics are studied over a period of several years. Treatment could result in mite decrease within the treatment region, extending to a lesser degree outside, with significant increases in wombat population. However, the benefits of targeted treatment regions within an environment are shown to be dependent on conditions at the start (endemic vs. disease free), as well as on the locations of these special regions (centre of the wombat population or against a geographical boundary). This research demonstrates the importance of understanding the state of the environment and populations before treatment commences, the effects of re-treatment schedules within the treatment region, and the transient large-scale changes in mite numbers that can be brought about by sudden changes to the environment. It also demonstrates that, with good knowledge of the host-pathogen dynamics and the spatial terrain, it is possible to achieve substantial reduction in mite numbers within the target region, with increases in wombat numbers throughout the environment.\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-29DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02058-z
Wayne B. Hayes
Network alignment aims to uncover topologically similar regions in the protein–protein interaction (PPI) networks of two or more species under the assumption that topologically similar regions tend to perform similar functions. Although there exist a plethora of both network alignment algorithms and measures of topological similarity, currently no “gold standard” exists for evaluating how well either is able to uncover functionally similar regions. Here we propose a formal, mathematically and statistically rigorous method for evaluating the statistical significance of shared GO terms in a global, 1-to-1 alignment between two PPI networks. Given an alignment in which k aligned protein pairs share a particular GO term g, we use a combinatorial argument to precisely quantify the p-value of that alignment with respect to g compared to a random alignment. The p-value of the alignment with respect to all GO terms, including their inter-relationships, is approximated using the Empirical Brown’s Method. We note that, just as with BLAST’s p-values, this method is not designed to guide an alignment algorithm towards a solution; instead, just as with BLAST, an alignment is guided by a scoring matrix or function; the p-values herein are computed after the fact, providing independent feedback to the user on the biological quality of the alignment that was generated by optimizing the scoring function. Importantly, we demonstrate that among all GO-based measures of network alignments, ours is the only one that correlates with the precision of GO annotation predictions, paving the way for network alignment-based protein function prediction.
网络配准旨在发现两个或多个物种的蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用(PPI)网络中拓扑相似的区域,其假设是拓扑相似的区域往往具有相似的功能。尽管存在大量的网络配准算法和拓扑相似性测量方法,但目前还没有 "黄金标准 "来评估这两种方法发现功能相似区域的能力。在这里,我们提出了一种正式的、数学上和统计学上严格的方法,用于评估两个 PPI 网络之间全局 1 对 1 配对中共享 GO 术语的统计意义。给定一个配对,其中 k 个配对蛋白质对共享一个特定的 GO 术语 g,我们使用一个组合论证来精确量化该配对与随机配对相比与 g 有关的 p 值。我们使用经验布朗法(Empirical Brown's Method)来近似计算与所有 GO 术语(包括它们之间的相互关系)有关的配准 p 值。我们注意到,就像 BLAST 的 p 值一样,这种方法并不是用来指导配准算法找到解决方案的;相反,就像 BLAST 一样,配准是由一个评分矩阵或函数来指导的;这里的 p 值是事后计算的,为用户提供了关于通过优化评分函数生成的配准的生物学质量的独立反馈。重要的是,我们证明了在所有基于 GO 的网络配准测量方法中,我们的方法是唯一能与 GO 注释预测精度相关联的方法,为基于网络配准的蛋白质功能预测铺平了道路。
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Pub Date : 2024-03-29DOI: 10.1007/s00285-024-02073-0
Zhimin Han, Yi Wang, Shan Gao, Guiquan Sun, Hao Wang
Communities are commonly not isolated but interact asymmetrically with each other, allowing the propagation of infectious diseases within the same community and between different communities. To reveal the impact of asymmetrical interactions and contact heterogeneity on disease transmission, we formulate a two-community SIR epidemic model, in which each community has its contact structure while communication between communities occurs through temporary commuters. We derive an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number , give an implicit equation for the final epidemic size z, and analyze the relationship between them. Unlike the typical positive correlation between and z in the classic SIR model, we find a negatively correlated relationship between counterparts of our model deviating from homogeneous populations. Moreover, we investigate the impact of asymmetric coupling mechanisms on . The results suggest that, in scenarios with restricted movement of susceptible individuals within a community, does not follow a simple monotonous relationship, indicating that an unbending decrease in the movement of susceptible individuals may increase . We further demonstrate that network contacts within communities have a greater effect on than casual contacts between communities. Finally, we develop an epidemic model without restriction on the movement of susceptible individuals, and the numerical simulations suggest that the increase in human flow between communities leads to a larger .
社区之间通常不是孤立的,而是非对称互动的,这使得传染病可以在同一社区内和不同社区之间传播。为了揭示非对称互动和接触异质性对疾病传播的影响,我们建立了一个双社群 SIR 流行病模型,其中每个社群都有自己的接触结构,而社群之间的交流则通过临时通勤者进行。我们推导出了基本繁殖数 R 0 的显式公式,给出了最终流行病规模 z 的隐式公式,并分析了它们之间的关系。与经典的 SIR 模型中 R 0 和 z 之间典型的正相关关系不同,我们发现偏离同质种群的模型中对应的 R 0 和 z 之间存在负相关关系。此外,我们还研究了非对称耦合机制对 R 0 的影响。结果表明,在社区内易感个体流动受限的情况下,R 0 并不遵循简单的单调关系,这表明易感个体流动的不规则减少可能会增加 R 0。我们进一步证明,与社区之间的偶然接触相比,社区内的网络接触对 R 0 的影响更大。最后,我们建立了一个不限制易感个体流动的流行病模型,数值模拟结果表明,社区间人流的增加会导致更大的 R 0。
{"title":"Final epidemic size of a two-community SIR model with asymmetric coupling.","authors":"Zhimin Han, Yi Wang, Shan Gao, Guiquan Sun, Hao Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-024-02073-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-024-02073-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Communities are commonly not isolated but interact asymmetrically with each other, allowing the propagation of infectious diseases within the same community and between different communities. To reveal the impact of asymmetrical interactions and contact heterogeneity on disease transmission, we formulate a two-community SIR epidemic model, in which each community has its contact structure while communication between communities occurs through temporary commuters. We derive an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> , give an implicit equation for the final epidemic size z, and analyze the relationship between them. Unlike the typical positive correlation between <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> and z in the classic SIR model, we find a negatively correlated relationship between counterparts of our model deviating from homogeneous populations. Moreover, we investigate the impact of asymmetric coupling mechanisms on <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> . The results suggest that, in scenarios with restricted movement of susceptible individuals within a community, <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> does not follow a simple monotonous relationship, indicating that an unbending decrease in the movement of susceptible individuals may increase <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> . We further demonstrate that network contacts within communities have a greater effect on <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> than casual contacts between communities. Finally, we develop an epidemic model without restriction on the movement of susceptible individuals, and the numerical simulations suggest that the increase in human flow between communities leads to a larger <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> .</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140319751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}