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Poverty and Prices: Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty 贫困与价格评估 2017 年购买力平价对国际贫困线和全球贫困的影响
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae035
Dean Jolliffe ⓡ, Daniel Gerszon Mahler ⓡ, Christoph Lakner ⓡ, Aziz Atamanov ⓡ, Samuel Kofi Tetteh-Baah
Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are used to estimate the international poverty line (IPL) in a common currency and account for relative price differences across countries when measuring global poverty. This paper assesses the impact of the 2017 PPPs on the nominal value of the IPL and global poverty. Updating the $1.90 IPL in 2011 PPP dollars to 2017 PPP dollars results in an IPL of $2.15—a finding that is robust to various methods. Based on an updated IPL of $2.15, the global extreme poverty rate in 2017 falls from the previously estimated 9.3 to 9.1 percent, reducing the count of people who are poor by 15 million. This is a modest change compared with previous updates of PPP data. The paper also assesses the methodological stability between the 2011 and 2017 PPPs, scrutinizes large changes at the country level, and updates alternative, complementary poverty lines with the 2017 PPPs.
购买力平价(PPP)用于估算以共同货币计算的国际贫困线(IPL),并在衡量全球贫困状况时考虑各国之间的相对价格差异。本文评估了 2017 年购买力平价对 IPL 名义值和全球贫困的影响。将以 2011 年购买力平价美元计算的 1.90 美元 IPL 更新为 2017 年购买力平价美元,得出的 IPL 为 2.15 美元--这一结果对各种方法都是稳健的。根据更新后的 2.15 美元 IPL,2017 年全球极端贫困率从之前估计的 9.3% 降至 9.1%,贫困人口减少了 1500 万。与之前更新的购买力平价数据相比,这一变化不大。本文还评估了 2011 年和 2017 年购买力平价之间的方法稳定性,仔细研究了国家层面的巨大变化,并根据 2017 年购买力平价更新了替代性、补充性贫困线。
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引用次数: 0
International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa 国际商品价格对非洲消费价格的影响
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae034
Thibault Lemaire, Paul Vertier
In this paper, global commodity prices pass-through to consumer prices are estimated in Africa. The estimation sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02–2021m04. Sixteen commodity prices are considered separately, rather than aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in Africa. Using local projections in a panel data set, the maximum estimated pass-through is of 23 percent, and the long-run pass-through is of about 20 percent, higher than usually found in the literature. Country-specific regressions are also considered: in the latter, the estimated pass-through is lower for countries with a higher GDP per capita, a lower share of food and energy in the consumption basket, a better quality of transport infrastructure, and a higher openness to trade. Finally, commodity-specific pass-throughs are correlated with the share of corresponding goods in the consumer basket and with the import dependency ratio for this commodity.
本文估算了全球商品价格对非洲消费价格的传导。估算样本包括 48 个国家在 2002-2002 年期间的月度数据。本文分别考虑了 16 种商品价格,而不是使用不能代表非洲消费的权重的综合指数。使用面板数据集中的本地预测,估计的最大传递率为 23%,长期传递率约为 20%,高于文献中的通常水平。此外,还考虑了针对具体国家的回归:在后者中,人均国内生产总值较高、食品和能源在消费篮子中所占比例较低、交通基础设施质量较好、贸易开放度较高的国家,估计的传递率较低。最后,特定商品的转嫁与相应商品在消费篮子中的份额以及该商品的进口依存度相关。
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引用次数: 0
Does the Source of FDI Matter? The Case of Tax Havens 外国直接投资的来源重要吗?避税地案例
Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae036
Solomiya Shpak
This paper estimates the benefits of FDI for firm performance, differentiating source countries between tax havens and non–tax havens. Using longitudinal data on more than 300,000 initially domestic firms in Ukraine between 1999 and 2013 and employing propensity score matching and panel data methods, this study finds that firms acquired by non–tax haven foreign investors experience substantial increases in employment, productivity, exports, and wages, but the gains are much lower and shorter-lived for firms receiving FDI from tax havens. These findings, based on econometric analysis of nearly the universe of Ukrainian businesses, are consistent with macroeconomic studies and anecdotal evidence that much of the tax-haven FDI in Ukraine actually represents domestic ownership channeled through offshore companies. This “round-trip FDI” results in negligible effects on firm performance and, at a macro level, it overstates the amount of genuine FDI flows into Ukraine.
本文通过对避税天堂和非避税天堂的来源国进行区分,估算了外国直接投资对企业绩效的益处。本研究利用1999年至2013年期间乌克兰30多万家初始国内企业的纵向数据,并采用倾向得分匹配和面板数据方法,发现被非避税港外国投资者收购的企业在就业、生产率、出口和工资方面都有大幅增长,但接受避税港外国直接投资的企业的收益要低得多,且持续时间较短。这些结论基于对几乎所有乌克兰企业的计量经济学分析,与宏观经济研究和轶事证据相一致,即乌克兰的避税地外国直接投资大部分实际上是通过离岸公司输送的国内所有权。这种 "往返外国直接投资 "对公司业绩的影响微乎其微,从宏观层面来看,它夸大了流入乌克兰的真正外国直接投资的数量。
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引用次数: 0
Organizational Hierarchies and Export Destinations 组织层次和出口目的地
Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae032
Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto
This paper proposes a new link relating export destinations and the organization of the firm: the production of higher-quality varieties exported to rich destinations induces firms to restructure their production processes, becoming organizationally more complex. A theoretical model with these features is presented and then the mechanisms are explored using a panel of Chilean manufacturing plants. The identification strategy of the paper relies on falling tariffs on Chilean products across destinations caused by the signature of Free Trade Agreements with high-income countries (the European Union, the United States, and South Korea). Results show that Chilean plants that were induced by these tariff reductions to start exporting to high-income destinations increased the number of hierarchical layers and upgraded the quality of their products. This involved the addition of qualified supervisors that facilitated the provision of higher product quality. These effects took place at new high-income exporting firms.
本文提出了出口目的地与企业组织之间的新联系:生产出口到富裕目的地的高质量品种,会促使企业重组其生产流程,使组织变得更加复杂。本文提出了一个具有这些特征的理论模型,然后使用智利制造工厂的面板对其机制进行了探讨。本文的识别策略依赖于智利与高收入国家(欧盟、美国和韩国)签署自由贸易协定后,智利产品在不同目的地的关税下降。结果表明,受关税下降的影响,智利工厂开始向高收入国家出口产品,并增加了产品的层级数量,提高了产品质量。这包括增加合格的监管人员,从而提高产品质量。这些效应发生在新的高收入出口企业。
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引用次数: 0
Africa's Manufacturing Puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian Firms 非洲制造业之谜:坦桑尼亚和埃塞俄比亚企业提供的证据
Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae029
Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, Dani Rodrik
Recent growth accelerations in Africa are characterized by declining shares of the labor force employed in agriculture, increasing labor productivity in agriculture, and declining labor productivity in modern sectors such as manufacturing. To shed light on this puzzle, this study disaggregates firms in the manufacturing sector by average size, using two newly created firm-level panels covering Tanzania (2008–2016) and Ethiopia (1996–2017). The analysis identifies a dichotomy between larger firms with superior productivity performance that do not expand employment and small firms that absorb employment but do not experience much productivity growth. Large, more productive firms use highly capital-intensive techniques, in line with global technology trends but significantly greater than what would be expected based on these countries’ income levels or relative factor endowments.
非洲近期增长加速的特点是,农业劳动力比例下降,农业劳动生产率提高,而制造业等现代部门的劳动生产率下降。为了揭示这一谜团,本研究使用两个新建立的企业级面板,涵盖坦桑尼亚(2008-2016 年)和埃塞俄比亚(1996-2017 年),按平均规模对制造业企业进行了分类。分析发现,生产率表现优异但没有扩大就业的大型企业与吸纳就业但生产率增长不大的小型企业之间存在两极分化。生产率较高的大型企业使用高度资本密集型技术,这与全球技术趋势一致,但明显高于根据这些国家的收入水平或相对要素禀赋所预期的水平。
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引用次数: 0
(Joint) Bank Savings, Female Empowerment, and Child Labor in Rural Ethiopia (联合)埃塞俄比亚农村地区的银行储蓄、女性赋权和童工问题
Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae024
Jose Galdo
This study examines whether the random allocation of single and joint savings accounts to cash crop farmers in rural Ethiopia is associated with increased savings and changes in decision-making authority and control over resources that could ultimately affect child labor and schooling resource allocations. Consistent with posited channels of intrahousehold bargaining models, women from households assigned to the joint saving treatment group show significant gains in autonomy and control of savings resources, broader financial empowerment, and increased labor participation. Positive effects on school participation and attendance are reported for girls, although point estimates are measured imprecisely. In a setting where schooling and child labor are not mutually exclusive, children work more when joint deposit accounts are available. In the absence of impacts on household income, this increase in child labor is explained by complementarities between adult farm labor and child labor in the household production function, which is reinforced by lumpy investments in labor-intensive agricultural inputs that likely increased the opportunity costs of children's time.
本研究探讨了向埃塞俄比亚农村地区的经济作物种植农户随机分配单个和联合储蓄账户是否与储蓄增加以及决策权和资源控制权的变化有关,而这些变化最终会影响童工和学校教育资源的分配。与假设的家庭内部讨价还价模式渠道一致,被分配到联合储蓄处理组的家庭的妇女在储蓄资源的自主权和控制权、更广泛的财务赋权和更多的劳动参与方面都有显著提高。女孩的入学率和出勤率也得到了积极的影响,尽管点估计值的测量并不精确。在学校教育和童工并不相互排斥的情况下,如果有联合存款账户,儿童的工作会更多。在对家庭收入没有影响的情况下,童工增加的原因是家庭生产函数中成人农业劳动和童工之间的互补性,而对劳动密集型农业投入的一次性投资可能增加了儿童时间的机会成本,从而加强了这种互补性。
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引用次数: 0
Food Transfers, Cash Transfers, Behavior Change Communication and Child Nutrition: Evidence from Bangladesh 食物转移、现金转移、行为改变沟通与儿童营养:孟加拉国的证据
Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae023
Akhter Ahmed, John Hoddinott, Shalini Roy
This paper reports the results of two 2-year randomized control trials in two poor rural areas of Bangladesh. Treatment arms included monthly cash transfers, monthly food rations of equivalent value to the cash transfers, and mixed monthly cash and food transfers, and treatment arms—one with food and one with cash—that combined transfers with nutrition-behavior communication change (BCC). This design enables a comparison of transfer modalities within the same experiment. Intent-to-treat estimators show that cash transfers and nutrition BCC had a large impact on nutritional status, a 0.25 standard deviation increase in height-for-age z-scores and a 7.8 percentage point decrease in stunting prevalence. No other treatment arm affected anthropometric outcomes. Mechanisms underlying these impacts are explored. Improved diets—particularly increased intake of animal source foods in the cash plus BCC arm—are consistent with the improvements observed in this paper.
本文报告了在孟加拉国两个贫困农村地区进行的两项为期两年的随机对照试验的结果。治疗组包括每月现金转移支付、与现金转移支付等值的每月口粮、每月现金和粮食混合转移支付,以及将转移支付与营养-行为沟通改变(BCC)相结合的治疗组--一个是粮食治疗组,一个是现金治疗组。这种设计可以在同一实验中对转移方式进行比较。意向治疗估计值显示,现金转移和营养行为改变对营养状况有很大影响,身高-年龄 Z 值提高了 0.25 个标准差,发育迟缓发生率降低了 7.8 个百分点。其他治疗方案均未对人体测量结果产生影响。本文探讨了产生这些影响的机制。膳食的改善--尤其是现金加 BCC 方案中动物源性食物摄入量的增加--与本文观察到的改善是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
The Gendered Impact of Digital Jobs Platforms: Experimental Evidence from Mozambique 数字工作平台的性别影响:莫桑比克的实验证据
Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae019
Sam Jones, Kunal Sen
This study examines the impact of digital labor-market platforms on jobs outcomes using a randomized encouragement design embedded in a longitudinal survey of Mozambican technical-vocational college graduates. We differentiate between platforms targeting formal jobs, where jobseekers direct their search, and informal tasks, where clients seek workers. Our analysis reveals statistically insignificant intent-to-treat and complier-average treatment effects for headline employment outcomes in the full sample. Notably, while the average male moderately benefits from platform usage, women do not. Rather, they are less responsive to the encouragement nudge, and female treatment compliers report higher reservation wages and lower job search. This suggests digital platforms can inadvertently perpetuate gender disparities in labor markets.
本研究采用随机鼓励设计,对莫桑比克技术职业学院毕业生进行纵向调查,研究数字劳动力市场平台对就业结果的影响。我们区分了针对正规工作和非正规工作的平台,前者是求职者寻找工作的地方,后者是客户寻找工人的地方。我们的分析表明,在全部样本中,对标题就业结果的意向治疗效应和平均治疗效应在统计上并不显著。值得注意的是,普通男性从平台使用中适度受益,而女性则不然。相反,她们对鼓励性劝告的反应较小,女性接受治疗者报告的保留工资较高,求职率较低。这表明,数字平台可能会无意中延续劳动力市场中的性别差异。
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引用次数: 0
Better Roads, Better Off? Evidence on Upgrading Roads in Tanzania 道路越修越好?坦桑尼亚道路升级的证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae017
Christelle Dumas, Ximena Játiva
Spatial isolation is considered to be one of the main determinants of poverty. Therefore, many transport investments are undertaken with the stated objective of poverty reduction. This paper evaluates the effect of a Tanzanian program that rehabilitated 2,500 km of major roads on rural livelihoods. The analysis uses a large set of variables describing household behavior in order to provide a complete picture of the adjustments. The identification consists of combining a household fixed effects strategy with propensity score matching. Some damaging effects of the program are found on the rural population in the two years following the intervention: the price of rice decreases; households reallocate labor away from agriculture and provide more wage work, but the increase in wage income does not compensate for the loss in agricultural income. Nor do households seem to be benefiting from the fall in the price of rice at consumption level. These results are consistent with rural households facing increased competition due to reduced transportation costs.
空间隔离被认为是贫困的主要决定因素之一。因此,许多交通投资都以减少贫困为既定目标。本文评估了坦桑尼亚一项修复 2,500 公里主要道路的计划对农村生计的影响。分析中使用了大量描述家庭行为的变量,以提供调整的全貌。识别方法包括将家庭固定效应策略与倾向得分匹配相结合。在干预后的两年中,发现该计划对农村人口产生了一些破坏性影响:大米价格下降;家庭重新分配了农业劳动力,提供了更多的有薪工作,但有薪收入的增加并不能弥补农业收入的损失。在消费水平上,家庭似乎也没有从大米价格下降中受益。这些结果与农村家庭因运输成本降低而面临更激烈的竞争是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Weather Shocks on Violent and Property Crimes in Jamaica 天气冲击对牙买加暴力犯罪和财产犯罪的影响
Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhae016
Nicholas A. Wright, Aubrey M. Stewart
Developing countries face the largest exposure to the negative effects of climate change. However, as temperature and rainfall patterns change, we have a limited understanding of their impact on these countries and the mitigation strategies that may be needed. In this paper, we utilize administrative panel data to examine the impact of weather shocks on violent and property crimes in Jamaica. We find strong evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in the daily temperature (2○C) increases violent crime by 3.67 percent, due to an increase in the number of murders (3.44 percent), shootings (7.53 percent), and cases of aggravated assault (6 percent). However, our results suggest that temperature changes have no statistical impact on property crime. In addition, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in rainfall (2 mm) reduces crimes such as shootings (1.53 percent), break-ins (2.27 percent), and larcenies (3.85 percent), but it has a minimal impact on other categories of crime.
发展中国家面临的气候变化负面影响最大。然而,随着气温和降雨模式的变化,我们对其对这些国家的影响以及可能需要采取的减缓战略的了解十分有限。在本文中,我们利用行政面板数据研究了天气冲击对牙买加暴力犯罪和财产犯罪的影响。我们发现有力的证据表明,日气温每上升一个标准差(2℃),暴力犯罪就会增加 3.67%,这主要是由于谋杀案(3.44%)、枪击案(7.53%)和严重伤害案(6%)数量的增加。然而,我们的研究结果表明,气温变化对财产犯罪没有统计上的影响。此外,我们还发现,降雨量每增加一个标准差(2 毫米),枪击案(1.53%)、入室盗窃案(2.27%)和盗窃案(3.85%)等犯罪案件就会减少,但对其他犯罪类别的影响微乎其微。
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引用次数: 0
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The World Bank Economic Review
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