Brian Knight, Maria Mercedes Ponce de Leon, Ana Tribin
The city of Bogota implemented a lockdown during the pandemic under which only men were allowed out on odd days and only women were allowed out on even days. Crime rates in Bogota increased, relative to a synthetic Bogota and relative to the pre-period, during this gender-based lockdown. Moreover, this increase is driven by more crime on men-only days and, more specifically, more robberies with male victims on men-only days. There is no evidence that higher crime rates on men-only days are offset by lower crime rates on women-only days. In fact, there is evidence of some increases in crimes with female victims on women-only days. In particular, there was an increase in robberies involving female victims on women-only days during the second half of the lockdown, when some restrictions were eased and more men, and thus more potential perpetrators, were on the streets. Overall, the gender-based lockdown, if anything, increased crime.
{"title":"Crime and Gender Segregation: Evidence from the Bogota “Pico y Genero” Lockdown","authors":"Brian Knight, Maria Mercedes Ponce de Leon, Ana Tribin","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhad045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhad045","url":null,"abstract":"The city of Bogota implemented a lockdown during the pandemic under which only men were allowed out on odd days and only women were allowed out on even days. Crime rates in Bogota increased, relative to a synthetic Bogota and relative to the pre-period, during this gender-based lockdown. Moreover, this increase is driven by more crime on men-only days and, more specifically, more robberies with male victims on men-only days. There is no evidence that higher crime rates on men-only days are offset by lower crime rates on women-only days. In fact, there is evidence of some increases in crimes with female victims on women-only days. In particular, there was an increase in robberies involving female victims on women-only days during the second half of the lockdown, when some restrictions were eased and more men, and thus more potential perpetrators, were on the streets. Overall, the gender-based lockdown, if anything, increased crime.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139412669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Development and legal researchers hypothesize that a moderate law may be more effective than a radical one in changing behavior. This study tests this hypothesis in the context of discriminatory sharing norms practiced by high-caste individuals against low-caste individuals in India. The study employs a lab-in-the-field experiment in which it influences (a) high-caste participants’ social norms of sharing money with a low-caste participant and (b) introduces either a “moderate” or a “radical” rule, that is, a rule that is closer or further away from the social norm and requires high-caste participants to share a minimum amount of their money with the low-caste participant. Breaking the rule entails incurring a small fine. This study finds that the effectiveness of the moderate versus radical rule in changing behavior and norms depends on the status quo social norm. This paper provides causal empirical evidence on how social norms influence laws’ effectiveness in inducing behavioral and norm change.
{"title":"Effect of Moderate and Radical Rules on High-Caste Behavior and Norms in India","authors":"Pavitra Govindan","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhad040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhad040","url":null,"abstract":"Development and legal researchers hypothesize that a moderate law may be more effective than a radical one in changing behavior. This study tests this hypothesis in the context of discriminatory sharing norms practiced by high-caste individuals against low-caste individuals in India. The study employs a lab-in-the-field experiment in which it influences (a) high-caste participants’ social norms of sharing money with a low-caste participant and (b) introduces either a “moderate” or a “radical” rule, that is, a rule that is closer or further away from the social norm and requires high-caste participants to share a minimum amount of their money with the low-caste participant. Breaking the rule entails incurring a small fine. This study finds that the effectiveness of the moderate versus radical rule in changing behavior and norms depends on the status quo social norm. This paper provides causal empirical evidence on how social norms influence laws’ effectiveness in inducing behavioral and norm change.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139374627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 1992, Pakistan equalized admissions criteria for women and men applying to medical schools, causing a rapid increase in the female share of medical graduates. Using birth cohort variation, I find that equalizing admissions criteria increased employment among female doctors by 21 percentage points and among doctors overall by 9 percentage points, even though female doctors are less likely to be employed than male doctors. Earnings for male medical graduates increased as lower ability males were crowded out. The 1992 reform led to increased gender diversification in a wide range of medical specialties, but it also concentrated doctors in urban districts where women prefer to practice.
{"title":"Removing Barriers to Entry in Medicine: Evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Fatima Aqeel","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhad039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhad039","url":null,"abstract":"In 1992, Pakistan equalized admissions criteria for women and men applying to medical schools, causing a rapid increase in the female share of medical graduates. Using birth cohort variation, I find that equalizing admissions criteria increased employment among female doctors by 21 percentage points and among doctors overall by 9 percentage points, even though female doctors are less likely to be employed than male doctors. Earnings for male medical graduates increased as lower ability males were crowded out. The 1992 reform led to increased gender diversification in a wide range of medical specialties, but it also concentrated doctors in urban districts where women prefer to practice.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"91 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139375163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How do agricultural productivity gains affect the distribution of agricultural land? Exploiting three waves of census data from the Philippines covering 21 years and 17 million plots, this article finds that municipalities endowed with favorable soil and weather conditions for genetically modified (GM) corn cultivation experience a relative increase in landholding inequality. Agricultural land is decreasing during this period and this decrease is driven by a decline in the size of large farms. The introduction of GM corn slows down this process by keeping more land under cultivation, which contributes to the documented relative increase in inequality.
{"title":"Agricultural Productivity and Land Inequality: Evidence from the Philippines","authors":"Ludovic Bequet","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhad042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhad042","url":null,"abstract":"How do agricultural productivity gains affect the distribution of agricultural land? Exploiting three waves of census data from the Philippines covering 21 years and 17 million plots, this article finds that municipalities endowed with favorable soil and weather conditions for genetically modified (GM) corn cultivation experience a relative increase in landholding inequality. Agricultural land is decreasing during this period and this decrease is driven by a decline in the size of large farms. The introduction of GM corn slows down this process by keeping more land under cultivation, which contributes to the documented relative increase in inequality.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139056015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes the magnitude and predictors of misreporting on intimate partner violence. Women in Nigeria were randomly assigned to answer questions using either an indirect method (list experiment) that gives respondents anonymity, or the standard, direct face-to-face method. Intimate partner violence rates were up to 35 percent greater when measured using the list method than the direct method. Misreporting was associated with indicators often targeted in empowerment and development programs, such as education and vulnerability. These results suggest that standard survey methods may generate significant underestimates of the prevalence of intimate partner violence, and biased correlations and treatment effect estimates.
{"title":"Method Matters: The Underreporting of Intimate Partner Violence","authors":"Claire Cullen","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhac022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhac022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the magnitude and predictors of misreporting on intimate partner violence. Women in Nigeria were randomly assigned to answer questions using either an indirect method (list experiment) that gives respondents anonymity, or the standard, direct face-to-face method. Intimate partner violence rates were up to 35 percent greater when measured using the list method than the direct method. Misreporting was associated with indicators often targeted in empowerment and development programs, such as education and vulnerability. These results suggest that standard survey methods may generate significant underestimates of the prevalence of intimate partner violence, and biased correlations and treatment effect estimates.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138543830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel Gerszon Mahler, R Andrés Castañeda Aguilar, David Newhouse
This paper evaluates different methods for nowcasting country-level poverty rates, including methods that apply statistical learning to large-scale country-level data obtained from the World Development Indicators and Google Earth Engine. The methods are evaluated by withholding measured poverty rates and determining how accurately the methods predict the held-out data. A simple approach that scales the last observed welfare distribution by a fraction of real GDP per capita growth performs nearly as well as models using statistical learning on 1,000+ variables. This GDP-based approach outperforms all models that predict poverty rates directly, even when the last survey is up to five years old. The results indicate that in this context, the additional complexity introduced by applying statistical learning techniques to a large set of variables yields only marginal improvements in accuracy.
{"title":"Nowcasting Global Poverty","authors":"Daniel Gerszon Mahler, R Andrés Castañeda Aguilar, David Newhouse","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhac017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhac017","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates different methods for nowcasting country-level poverty rates, including methods that apply statistical learning to large-scale country-level data obtained from the World Development Indicators and Google Earth Engine. The methods are evaluated by withholding measured poverty rates and determining how accurately the methods predict the held-out data. A simple approach that scales the last observed welfare distribution by a fraction of real GDP per capita growth performs nearly as well as models using statistical learning on 1,000+ variables. This GDP-based approach outperforms all models that predict poverty rates directly, even when the last survey is up to five years old. The results indicate that in this context, the additional complexity introduced by applying statistical learning techniques to a large set of variables yields only marginal improvements in accuracy.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138544443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Piotr Lewandowski, Albert Park, Wojciech Hardy, Yang Du, Saier Wu
The shift from routine work to nonroutine cognitive work is a key feature of labor markets globally, but there is little evidence on the extent to which tasks differ among workers performing the same jobs in different countries. This paper constructs survey-based measures of routine task intensity (RTI) of jobs consistent with those based on the U.S. O*NET database for workers in 47 countries. It confirms substantial cross-country differences in the content of work within occupations. The extent to which workers’ RTI is predicted by technology, supply of skills, globalization, and economic structure is assessed; and their contribution to the variation in RTI across countries is quantified. Technology is by far the most important factor. Supply of skills is next in importance, especially for workers in high-skilled occupations, while globalization is more important than skills for workers in low-skilled occupations. Occupational structure explains only about one-fifth of cross-country variation in RTI.
{"title":"Technology, Skills, and Globalization: Explaining International Differences in Routine and Nonroutine Work Using Survey Data","authors":"Piotr Lewandowski, Albert Park, Wojciech Hardy, Yang Du, Saier Wu","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhac005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhac005","url":null,"abstract":"The shift from routine work to nonroutine cognitive work is a key feature of labor markets globally, but there is little evidence on the extent to which tasks differ among workers performing the same jobs in different countries. This paper constructs survey-based measures of routine task intensity (RTI) of jobs consistent with those based on the U.S. O*NET database for workers in 47 countries. It confirms substantial cross-country differences in the content of work within occupations. The extent to which workers’ RTI is predicted by technology, supply of skills, globalization, and economic structure is assessed; and their contribution to the variation in RTI across countries is quantified. Technology is by far the most important factor. Supply of skills is next in importance, especially for workers in high-skilled occupations, while globalization is more important than skills for workers in low-skilled occupations. Occupational structure explains only about one-fifth of cross-country variation in RTI.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138543818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper approximates the identity that links growth in mean incomes and changes in the distribution of relative incomes to reductions in absolute poverty and examines the role of income inequality for poverty reduction. Under the assumption that income is log-normally distributed, we show that we can approximate this identity well. We find that the inequality elasticity of poverty reduction is larger, on average, compared to the growth elasticity of poverty reduction and that the growth elasticity declines steeply with a country’s initial level of inequality. However, we find that prior changes in poverty were, in large part, explained by changes in mean incomes. This is a consequence of changes in income inequality being an order of magnitude smaller than changes in mean incomes. Overall, our results highlight the important role income inequality can play in reducing poverty despite prior poverty changes being, in large part, a consequence of economic growth.
{"title":"The Role of Income Inequality for Poverty Reduction","authors":"Katy Bergstrom","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhab026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhab026","url":null,"abstract":"This paper approximates the identity that links growth in mean incomes and changes in the distribution of relative incomes to reductions in absolute poverty and examines the role of income inequality for poverty reduction. Under the assumption that income is log-normally distributed, we show that we can approximate this identity well. We find that the inequality elasticity of poverty reduction is larger, on average, compared to the growth elasticity of poverty reduction and that the growth elasticity declines steeply with a country’s initial level of inequality. However, we find that prior changes in poverty were, in large part, explained by changes in mean incomes. This is a consequence of changes in income inequality being an order of magnitude smaller than changes in mean incomes. Overall, our results highlight the important role income inequality can play in reducing poverty despite prior poverty changes being, in large part, a consequence of economic growth.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138543820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the relationship between urban agglomeration and firm innovation using a recently developed dataset that consistently measures city boundaries across Asia together with geo-referenced firm-level data. It finds that the spatial distribution of innovation by firms is highly concentrated within countries. Further, firms in larger cities have substantially higher propensities to introduce product and process innovations and to undertake R&D activities, a result that holds for subgroups of countries and even when the largest cities are excluded from the analysis. Finally, the presence of high-quality universities and highly ranked engineering departments in cities is positively associated with firm innovation, lending support to the idea that the accumulation of human capital locally is a key channel through which urban agglomeration affects innovation.
{"title":"Urban Agglomeration and Firm Innovation: Evidence from Asia","authors":"Liming Chen, Rana Hasan, Yi Jiang","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhab022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhab022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between urban agglomeration and firm innovation using a recently developed dataset that consistently measures city boundaries across Asia together with geo-referenced firm-level data. It finds that the spatial distribution of innovation by firms is highly concentrated within countries. Further, firms in larger cities have substantially higher propensities to introduce product and process innovations and to undertake R&D activities, a result that holds for subgroups of countries and even when the largest cities are excluded from the analysis. Finally, the presence of high-quality universities and highly ranked engineering departments in cities is positively associated with firm innovation, lending support to the idea that the accumulation of human capital locally is a key channel through which urban agglomeration affects innovation.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138543821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the effects of state censorship in the context of the 2007 government closing of RCTV, a popular opposition television channel in Venezuela. Some parts of the country had access to a second opposition channel, Globovision, while other parts completely lost access to opposition television. The first finding, based upon ratings data, is that viewership fell on the progovernment replacement, following the closing of RCTV, but rose on Globovision in areas with access to the signal. Based upon this switching, the paper investigates whether support for Chavez fell in areas that retained access to opposition television, relative to those that completely lost access. Using three measures, Latinbarometer survey data, electoral returns, and data on protest activity, the second finding is that support for Chavez fell in municipalities that retained access to opposition television, relative to municipalities that lost access to opposition television. Taken together, these two findings suggest that voters switching from censored outlets to uncensored outlets can limit the effectiveness of state censorship.
{"title":"Opposition Media, State Censorship, and Political Accountability: Evidence from Chavez’s Venezuela","authors":"Brian Knight, Ana Tribin","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhab018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhab018","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the effects of state censorship in the context of the 2007 government closing of RCTV, a popular opposition television channel in Venezuela. Some parts of the country had access to a second opposition channel, Globovision, while other parts completely lost access to opposition television. The first finding, based upon ratings data, is that viewership fell on the progovernment replacement, following the closing of RCTV, but rose on Globovision in areas with access to the signal. Based upon this switching, the paper investigates whether support for Chavez fell in areas that retained access to opposition television, relative to those that completely lost access. Using three measures, Latinbarometer survey data, electoral returns, and data on protest activity, the second finding is that support for Chavez fell in municipalities that retained access to opposition television, relative to municipalities that lost access to opposition television. Taken together, these two findings suggest that voters switching from censored outlets to uncensored outlets can limit the effectiveness of state censorship.","PeriodicalId":501583,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138543822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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