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Estimation of semi-Markov multi-state models: a comparison of the sojourn times and transition intensities approaches 半马尔可夫多状态模型的估计:逗留时间和转移强度方法的比较
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1515/IJB-2020-0083
A. Asanjarani, B. Liquet, Y. Nazarathy
Abstract Semi-Markov models are widely used for survival analysis and reliability analysis. In general, there are two competing parameterizations and each entails its own interpretation and inference properties. On the one hand, a semi-Markov process can be defined based on the distribution of sojourn times, often via hazard rates, together with transition probabilities of an embedded Markov chain. On the other hand, intensity transition functions may be used, often referred to as the hazard rates of the semi-Markov process. We summarize and contrast these two parameterizations both from a probabilistic and an inference perspective, and we highlight relationships between the two approaches. In general, the intensity transition based approach allows the likelihood to be split into likelihoods of two-state models having fewer parameters, allowing efficient computation and usage of many survival analysis tools. Nevertheless, in certain cases the sojourn time based approach is natural and has been exploited extensively in applications. In contrasting the two approaches and contemporary relevant R packages used for inference, we use two real datasets highlighting the probabilistic and inference properties of each approach. This analysis is accompanied by an R vignette.
摘要半马尔可夫模型广泛用于生存分析和可靠性分析。一般来说,有两个相互竞争的参数化,每个参数化都有自己的解释和推理特性。一方面,半马尔可夫过程可以基于逗留时间的分布来定义,通常通过风险率,以及嵌入马尔可夫链的转移概率。另一方面,可以使用强度转移函数,通常称为半马尔可夫过程的风险率。我们从概率和推理的角度总结和比较了这两种参数化,并强调了两种方法之间的关系。通常,基于强度转换的方法允许将似然性划分为具有较少参数的两状态模型的似然性,从而允许高效计算和使用许多生存分析工具。然而,在某些情况下,基于逗留时间的方法是自然的,并且在应用中得到了广泛的利用。在对比这两种方法和用于推理的当代相关R包时,我们使用了两个真实数据集,突出了每种方法的概率和推理特性。此分析附有一个R小插曲。
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引用次数: 14
Incorporating Contact Network Uncertainty in Individual Level Models of Infectious Disease using Approximate Bayesian Computation 用近似贝叶斯计算纳入传染病个体水平模型中的接触网络不确定性
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2019-12-10 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2017-0092
Waleed Almutiry, R. Deardon
Abstract Infectious disease transmission between individuals in a heterogeneous population is often best modelled through a contact network. However, such contact network data are often unobserved. Such missing data can be accounted for in a Bayesian data augmented framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Unfortunately, fitting models in such a framework can be highly computationally intensive. We investigate the fitting of network-based infectious disease models with completely unknown contact networks using approximate Bayesian computation population Monte Carlo (ABC-PMC) methods. This is done in the context of both simulated data, and data from the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. We show that ABC-PMC is able to obtain reasonable approximations of the underlying infectious disease model with huge savings in computation time when compared to a full Bayesian MCMC analysis.
摘要异质人群中个体之间的传染病传播通常最好通过接触网络进行建模。然而,这样的联系网络数据往往是不被注意到的。这种缺失的数据可以在使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)的贝叶斯数据增强框架中解释。不幸的是,在这样的框架中拟合模型可能是高度计算密集型的。我们使用近似贝叶斯计算群体蒙特卡罗(ABC-PCC)方法研究了具有完全未知接触网络的基于网络的传染病模型的拟合。这是在模拟数据和英国2001年口蹄疫疫情数据的背景下进行的。我们表明,与完整的贝叶斯MCMC分析相比,ABC-PC能够获得潜在传染病模型的合理近似值,并节省了大量的计算时间。
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引用次数: 7
Bayesian Autoregressive Frailty Models for Inference in Recurrent Events 递归事件推理的贝叶斯自回归脆弱性模型
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2019-11-21 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2018-0088
Marta Tallarita, M. De Iorio, A. Guglielmi, J. Malone‐Lee
Abstract We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for gap times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on the time trajectory of the recurrent event. Time-dependency between gap times is taken into account through the specification of an autoregressive component for the frailty parameters influencing the response at different times. The order of the autoregression may be assumed unknown and is an object of inference. We consider two alternative approaches to perform model selection under this scenario. Covariates may be easily included in the regression framework and censoring and missing data are easily accounted for. As the proposed methodologies lie within the class of Dirichlet process mixtures, posterior inference can be performed through efficient MCMC algorithms. We illustrate the approach through simulations and medical applications involving recurrent hospitalizations of cancer patients and successive urinary tract infections.
摘要:我们提出了自回归的贝叶斯半参数模型来描述重复事件之间的间隔时间。目的是双重的:推断可能时变的协变量对间隔时间和基于重复事件的时间轨迹的个体聚类的影响。通过对影响不同时间响应的脆弱参数的自回归分量的说明,考虑了间隙时间之间的时间依赖性。自回归的阶数可以假定为未知,并作为推理的对象。在这种情况下,我们考虑了两种可选的方法来执行模型选择。协变量可以很容易地包含在回归框架中,并且很容易解释删减和丢失的数据。由于所提出的方法属于Dirichlet过程混合类,后验推理可以通过高效的MCMC算法来执行。我们通过模拟和涉及癌症患者反复住院和连续尿路感染的医学应用来说明该方法。
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引用次数: 2
Biostatistics in Africa 2019: A Special Issue of The International Journal of Biostatistics 2019年非洲生物统计学:国际生物统计学杂志特刊
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2019-0125
A. Chambaz, Alan Hubbard, Alexander R. Luedtke, M. J. Laan
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian Nonparametrics and Biostatistics: The Case of PET Imaging 贝叶斯非参数和生物统计学:以PET成像为例
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2017-0099
Mame Diarra Fall
Abstract Biostatistic applications often require to collect and analyze a massive amount of data. Hence, it has become necessary to consider new statistical paradigms that perform well in characterizing complex data. Nonparametric Bayesian methods provide a widely used framework that offers the key advantages of a fully model-based probabilistic framework, while being highly flexible and adaptable. The goal of this paper is to provide a motivation of Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) through a particular biomedical application, namely Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging reconstruction.
摘要生物统计学应用程序通常需要收集和分析大量数据。因此,有必要考虑在表征复杂数据方面表现良好的新统计范式。非参数贝叶斯方法提供了一个广泛使用的框架,它提供了完全基于模型的概率框架的关键优势,同时具有高度的灵活性和适应性。本文的目标是通过一个特定的生物医学应用,即正电子发射断层扫描(PET)成像重建,提供贝叶斯非框架(BNP)的动机。
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引用次数: 0
On the Use of Optimal Transportation Theory to Recode Variables and Application to Database Merging 最优运输理论在变量重编码中的应用及其在数据库合并中的应用
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2019-09-14 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2018-0106
Valérie Garès, C. Dimeglio, G. Guernec, Romain Fantin, B. Lepage, M. Kosorok, N. Savy
Abstract Merging databases is a strategy of paramount interest especially in medical research. A common problem in this context comes from a variable which is not coded on the same scale in both databases we aim to merge. This paper considers the problem of finding a relevant way to recode the variable in order to merge these two databases. To address this issue, an algorithm, based on optimal transportation theory, is proposed. Optimal transportation theory gives us an application to map the measure associated with the variable in database A to the measure associated with the same variable in database B. To do so, a cost function has to be introduced and an allocation rule has to be defined. Such a function and such a rule is proposed involving the information contained in the covariates. In this paper, the method is compared to multiple imputation by chained equations and a statistical learning method and has demonstrated a better average accuracy in many situations. Applications on both simulated and real datasets show that the efficiency of the proposed merging algorithm depends on how the covariates are linked with the variable of interest.
摘要数据库合并是一种非常重要的策略,特别是在医学研究中。在这种情况下,一个常见的问题来自于一个变量,该变量在我们打算合并的两个数据库中没有以相同的规模编码。本文考虑的问题是找到一种相关的方法来重新编码变量,以便合并这两个数据库。为了解决这一问题,提出了一种基于最优运输理论的算法。最优运输理论为我们提供了一个应用程序,将与数据库A中变量相关的度量映射到与数据库b中相同变量相关的度量。要做到这一点,必须引入成本函数并定义分配规则。提出了一个包含协变量信息的函数和规则。本文将该方法与链式多次插值法和统计学习法进行了比较,结果表明该方法在许多情况下具有更好的平均精度。在模拟和实际数据集上的应用表明,所提出的合并算法的效率取决于协变量与感兴趣变量的联系方式。
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引用次数: 5
Multinomial Logistic Model for Coinfection Diagnosis Between Arbovirus and Malaria in Kedougou 可斗沟虫媒病毒与疟疾共感染诊断的多项Logistic模型
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2018-01-12 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2017-0015
Mor Absa Loum, Marie-Anne Poursat, A. Sow, A. Sall, C. Loucoubar, E. Gassiat
Abstract In tropical regions, populations continue to suffer morbidity and mortality from malaria and arboviral diseases. In Kedougou (Senegal), these illnesses are all endemic due to the climate and its geographical position. The co-circulation of malaria parasites and arboviruses can explain the observation of coinfected cases. Indeed there is strong resemblance in symptoms between these diseases making problematic targeted medical care of coinfected cases. This is due to the fact that the origin of illness is not obviously known. Some cases could be immunized against one or the other of the pathogens, immunity typically acquired with factors like age and exposure as usual for endemic area. Thus, coinfection needs to be better diagnosed. Using data collected from patients in Kedougou region, from 2009 to 2013, we adjusted a multinomial logistic model and selected relevant variables in explaining coinfection status. We observed specific sets of variables explaining each of the diseases exclusively and the coinfection. We tested the independence between arboviral and malaria infections and derived coinfection probabilities from the model fitting. In case of a coinfection probability greater than a threshold value to be calibrated on the data, long duration of illness and age are mostly indicative of arboviral disease while high body temperature and presence of nausea or vomiting symptoms during the rainy season are mostly indicative of malaria disease.
在热带地区,人们继续遭受疟疾和虫媒病毒疾病的发病率和死亡率。在凯杜古(塞内加尔),由于气候和地理位置的原因,这些疾病都是地方性的。疟疾寄生虫和虫媒病毒的共同传播可以解释合并感染病例的观察结果。事实上,这些疾病之间的症状非常相似,这使得对合并感染病例的针对性医疗护理存在问题。这是因为疾病的起源还不清楚。有些病例可以针对一种或另一种病原体进行免疫接种,免疫通常与流行地区的年龄和暴露等因素有关。因此,需要更好地诊断合并感染。利用2009 - 2013年可斗沟地区患者的数据,调整多项logistic模型并选择相关变量来解释合并感染状况。我们观察到一组特定的变量来单独解释每种疾病和合并感染。我们测试了虫媒病毒和疟疾感染之间的独立性,并从模型拟合中得出了共同感染的概率。如果合并感染的概率大于根据数据校准的阈值,病程长和年龄大则大多表明患有虫媒病毒病,而在雨季出现高体温和恶心或呕吐症状则大多表明患有疟疾。
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引用次数: 2
Cell Line Classification Using Electric Cell-Substrate Impedance Sensing (ECIS) 基于Cell- substrate Impedance Sensing (ECIS)的细胞系分类
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2017-10-26 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2018-0083
Megan L. Gelsinger, Laura L. Tupper, D. Matteson
Abstract We present new methods for cell line classification using multivariate time series bioimpedance data obtained from electric cell-substrate impedance sensing (ECIS) technology. The ECIS technology, which monitors the attachment and spreading of mammalian cells in real time through the collection of electrical impedance data, has historically been used to study one cell line at a time. However, we show that if applied to data from multiple cell lines, ECIS can be used to classify unknown or potentially mislabeled cells, factors which have previously been associated with the reproducibility crisis in the biological literature. We assess a range of approaches to this new problem, testing different classification methods and deriving a dictionary of 29 features to characterize ECIS data. Most notably, our analysis enriches the current field by making use of simultaneous multi-frequency ECIS data, where previous studies have focused on only one frequency; using classification methods to distinguish multiple cell lines, rather than simple statistical tests that compare only two cell lines; and assessing a range of features derived from ECIS data based on their classification performance. In classification tests on fifteen mammalian cell lines, we obtain very high out-of-sample predictive accuracy. These preliminary findings provide a baseline for future large-scale studies in this field.
摘要:我们提出了使用从电细胞基质阻抗传感(ECIS)技术获得的多变量时间序列生物阻抗数据进行细胞系分类的新方法。ECIS技术通过收集电阻抗数据实时监测哺乳动物细胞的附着和扩散,历史上一直用于一次研究一个细胞系。然而,我们发现,如果应用于多个细胞系的数据,ECIS可以用于对未知或潜在错误标记的细胞进行分类,这些因素以前在生物学文献中与再现性危机有关。我们评估了一系列解决这一新问题的方法,测试了不同的分类方法,并推导了一个由29个特征组成的字典来表征ECIS数据。最值得注意的是,我们的分析通过同时使用多频率ECIS数据丰富了当前领域,而以前的研究只关注一个频率;使用分类方法来区分多个细胞系,而不是仅比较两个细胞系的简单统计测试;以及基于ECIS数据的分类性能来评估从ECIS数据导出的一系列特征。在对15种哺乳动物细胞系的分类测试中,我们获得了非常高的样本外预测准确性。这些初步发现为该领域未来的大规模研究提供了基线。
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引用次数: 17
Combinatorial Mixtures of Multiparameter Distributions: An Application to Bivariate Data 多参数分布的组合混合:在双变量数据中的应用
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2017-02-16 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0064
V. Edefonti, G. Parmigiani
Abstract: We introduce combinatorial mixtures – a flexible class of models for inference on mixture distributions whose components have multidimensional parameters. The key idea is to allow each element of the component-specific parameter vectors to be shared by a subset of other components. This approach allows for mixtures that range from very flexible to very parsimonious and unifies inference on component-specific parameters with inference on the number of components. We develop Bayesian inference and computational approaches for this class of distributions, and illustrate them in an application. This work was originally motivated by the analysis of cancer subtypes: in terms of biological measures of interest, subtypes may be characterized by differences in location, scale, correlations or any of the combinations. We illustrate our approach using publicly available data on molecular subtypes of lung and prostate cancers.
摘要:我们介绍了组合混合物——一类灵活的模型,用于推断混合物分布,其成分具有多维参数。关键思想是允许特定于组件的参数向量的每个元素由其他组件的子集共享。这种方法允许从非常灵活到非常简约的混合,并将对组件特定参数的推断与对组件数量的推断统一起来。我们为这类分布开发了贝叶斯推理和计算方法,并在应用中进行了说明。这项工作最初的动机是分析癌症亚型:就感兴趣的生物学测量而言,亚型可能以位置、规模、相关性或任何组合的差异为特征。我们使用公开的肺癌和前列腺癌分子亚型的数据来说明我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
On Stratified Adjusted Tests by Binomial Trials 二项试验的分层校正检验
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2017-02-14 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2016-0047
Asanao Shimokawa, E. Miyaoka
Abstract To estimate or test the treatment effect in randomized clinical trials, it is important to adjust for the potential influence of covariates that are likely to affect the association between the treatment or control group and the response. If these covariates are known at the start of the trial, random assignment of the treatment within each stratum would be considered. On the other hand, if these covariates are not clear at the start of the trial, or if it is difficult to allocate the treatment within each stratum, completely randomized assignment of the treatment would be performed. In both sampling structures, the use of a stratified adjusted test is a useful way to evaluate the significance of the overall treatment effect by reducing the variance and/or bias of the result. If the trial has a binary endpoint, the Cochran and Mantel-Haenszel tests are generally used. These tests are constructed based on the assumption that the number of patients within a stratum is fixed. However, in practice, the stratum sizes are not fixed at the start of the trial in many situations, and are instead allowed to vary. Therefore, there is a risk that using these tests under such situations would result in an error in the estimated variation of the test statistics. To handle the problem, we propose new test statistics under both sampling structures based on multinomial distributions. Our proposed approach is based on the Cochran test, and the difference between the two tests tends to have similar values in the case of a large number of patients. When the total number of patients is small, our approach yields a more conservative result. Through simulation studies, we show that the new approach could correctly maintain the type I error better than the traditional approach.
为了在随机临床试验中评估或检验治疗效果,重要的是要调整可能影响治疗组或对照组与反应之间关联的协变量的潜在影响。如果这些协变量在试验开始时已知,则可以考虑在每个地层中随机分配处理。另一方面,如果这些协变量在试验开始时不清楚,或者很难在每个层中分配治疗,则将执行治疗的完全随机分配。在这两种抽样结构中,使用分层调整检验是通过减少结果的方差和/或偏差来评估总体治疗效果的显著性的有用方法。如果试验有二元终点,通常使用Cochran和Mantel-Haenszel检验。这些测试是基于一个地层中患者数量是固定的假设来构建的。然而,在实践中,在许多情况下,地层尺寸在试验开始时并不是固定的,而是允许变化的。因此,在这种情况下使用这些测试可能会导致测试统计量的估计变化出现错误。为了解决这一问题,我们提出了两种抽样结构下基于多项分布的检验统计量。我们提出的方法是基于Cochran检验,在大量患者的情况下,两种检验的差值趋于相似。当患者总数较小时,我们的方法产生更保守的结果。仿真研究表明,该方法比传统方法更能正确地保持I型误差。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Biostatistics
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