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Effect of Smoothing in Generalized Linear Mixed Models on the Estimation of Covariance Parameters for Longitudinal Data 广义线性混合模型中平滑对纵向数据协方差参数估计的影响
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0026
M. Mullah, A. Benedetti
Abstract Besides being mainly used for analyzing clustered or longitudinal data, generalized linear mixed models can also be used for smoothing via restricting changes in the fit at the knots in regression splines. The resulting models are usually called semiparametric mixed models (SPMMs). We investigate the effect of smoothing using SPMMs on the correlation and variance parameter estimates for serially correlated longitudinal normal, Poisson and binary data. Through simulations, we compare the performance of SPMMs to other simpler methods for estimating the nonlinear association such as fractional polynomials, and using a parametric nonlinear function. Simulation results suggest that, in general, the SPMMs recover the true curves very well and yield reasonable estimates of the correlation and variance parameters. However, for binary outcomes, SPMMs produce biased estimates of the variance parameters for high serially correlated data. We apply these methods to a dataset investigating the association between CD4 cell count and time since seroconversion for HIV infected men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.
广义线性混合模型除了主要用于分析聚类或纵向数据外,还可以通过限制回归样条结点处拟合的变化来实现平滑。所得到的模型通常称为半参数混合模型(spmm)。我们研究了使用spmm平滑对纵向正态、泊松和二值数据的相关和方差参数估计的影响。通过仿真,我们将spmm的性能与其他更简单的估计非线性关联的方法(如分数多项式和使用参数非线性函数)进行了比较。仿真结果表明,总体而言,spmm可以很好地恢复真实曲线,并对相关参数和方差参数给出合理的估计。然而,对于二元结果,spmm对高序列相关数据的方差参数产生偏倚估计。我们将这些方法应用于一个数据集,该数据集调查了在多中心艾滋病队列研究中登记的HIV感染男性的CD4细胞计数与血清转化时间之间的关系。
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引用次数: 4
A Binomial Integer-Valued ARCH Model 二项整数值ARCH模型
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0051
M. Ristić, C. Weiß, Ana D Janjić
Abstract We present an integer-valued ARCH model which can be used for modeling time series of counts with under-, equi-, or overdispersion. The introduced model has a conditional binomial distribution, and it is shown to be strictly stationary and ergodic. The unknown parameters are estimated by three methods: conditional maximum likelihood, conditional least squares and maximum likelihood type penalty function estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the estimators are derived. A real application of the novel model to epidemic surveillance is briefly discussed. Finally, a generalization of the introduced model is considered by introducing an integer-valued GARCH model.
摘要提出了一种整数值ARCH模型,该模型可用于对欠分散、等分散或过分散的计数时间序列进行建模。所引入的模型具有条件二项分布,并被证明是严格平稳和遍历的。通过条件极大似然、条件最小二乘和极大似然罚函数估计三种方法对未知参数进行估计。导出了估计量的渐近分布。最后简要讨论了该模型在流行病监测中的实际应用。最后,通过引入整数值GARCH模型,对所引入的模型进行了推广。
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引用次数: 24
Testing Equality in Ordinal Data with Repeated Measurements: A Model-Free Approach 用重复测量检验有序数据的相等性:一种无模型方法
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0075
K. Lui
Abstract In randomized clinical trials, we often encounter ordinal categorical responses with repeated measurements. We propose a model-free approach with using the generalized odds ratio (GOR) to measure the relative treatment effect. We develop procedures for testing equality of treatment effects and derive interval estimators for the GOR. We further develop a simple procedure for testing the treatment-by-period interaction. To illustrate the use of test procedures and interval estimators developed here, we consider two real-life data sets, one studying the gender effect on pain scores on an ordinal scale after hip joint resurfacing surgeries, and the other investigating the effect of an active hypnotic drug in insomnia patients on ordinal categories of time to falling asleep.
在随机临床试验中,我们经常遇到重复测量的顺序分类反应。我们提出了一种无模型的方法,使用广义优势比(GOR)来衡量相对治疗效果。我们开发了检验治疗效果相等性的程序,并推导了GOR的区间估计。我们进一步开发了一个简单的程序来测试按周期治疗的相互作用。为了说明测试程序和区间估计器的使用,我们考虑了两个现实生活中的数据集,一个研究性别对髋关节表面置换手术后疼痛评分的顺序影响,另一个研究失眠患者的有效催眠药物对入睡时间的顺序影响。
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引用次数: 1
A Comparison of Some Approximate Confidence Intervals for a Single Proportion for Clustered Binary Outcome Data 聚类二值结果数据单比例近似置信区间的比较
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0024
Krishna K. Saha, Daniel Miller, Suojin Wang
Abstract Interval estimation of the proportion parameter in the analysis of binary outcome data arising in cluster studies is often an important problem in many biomedical applications. In this paper, we propose two approaches based on the profile likelihood and Wilson score. We compare them with two existing methods recommended for complex survey data and some other methods that are simple extensions of well-known methods such as the likelihood, the generalized estimating equation of Zeger and Liang and the ratio estimator approach of Rao and Scott. An extensive simulation study is conducted for a variety of parameter combinations for the purposes of evaluating and comparing the performance of these methods in terms of coverage and expected lengths. Applications to biomedical data are used to illustrate the proposed methods.
聚类研究中出现的二元结果数据分析中比例参数的区间估计是许多生物医学应用中的一个重要问题。在本文中,我们提出了两种基于轮廓似然和威尔逊分数的方法。我们将它们与现有的两种用于复杂调查数据的方法和其他一些方法进行了比较,这些方法是众所周知的方法的简单扩展,如似然方法,Zeger和Liang的广义估计方程以及Rao和Scott的比率估计方法。为了评估和比较这些方法在覆盖范围和预期长度方面的性能,对各种参数组合进行了广泛的模拟研究。应用于生物医学数据来说明所提出的方法。
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引用次数: 10
Using Relative Statistics and Approximate Disease Prevalence to Compare Screening Tests 用相对统计和近似疾病流行率比较筛查试验
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/IJB-2016-0017
Samuel Frank, Abigail Craig
Schatzkin et al. and other authors demonstrated that the ratios of some conditional statistics such as the true positive fraction are equal to the ratios of unconditional statistics, such as disease detection rates, and therefore we can calculate these ratios between two screening tests on the same population even if negative test patients are not followed with a reference procedure and the true and false negative rates are unknown. We demonstrate that this same property applies to an expected utility metric. We also demonstrate that while simple estimates of relative specificities and relative areas under ROC curves (AUC) do depend on the unknown negative rates, we can write these ratios in terms of disease prevalence, and the dependence of these ratios on a posited prevalence is often weak particularly if that prevalence is small or the performance of the two screening tests is similar. Therefore we can estimate relative specificity or AUC with little loss of accuracy, if we use an approximate value of disease prevalence.
Schatzkin等人证明了一些条件统计(如真阳性比例)的比率等于无条件统计(如疾病检出率)的比率,因此我们可以计算出同一人群中两次筛查试验之间的比率,即使阴性检测患者没有参考程序,并且真阴性率和假阴性率未知。我们将演示相同的属性适用于预期的效用度量。我们还证明,虽然相对特异性和ROC曲线(AUC)下的相对面积的简单估计确实依赖于未知的负率,但我们可以根据疾病患病率来编写这些比率,并且这些比率对假定患病率的依赖性通常很弱,特别是如果患病率很小或两个筛选测试的表现相似。因此,如果我们使用疾病患病率的近似值,我们可以估计相对特异性或AUC,而准确度几乎没有损失。
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引用次数: 2
Sample Size for Assessing Agreement between Two Methods of Measurement by Bland−Altman Method 用Bland - Altman方法评估两种测量方法之间一致性的样本量
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0039
Mengfei Lu, Weihua Zhong, Yu-xiu Liu, Hua-zhang Miao, Yong-Chang Li, Mu-Huo Ji
Abstract: The Bland–Altman method has been widely used for assessing agreement between two methods of measurement. However, it remains unsolved about sample size estimation. We propose a new method of sample size estimation for Bland–Altman agreement assessment. According to the Bland–Altman method, the conclusion on agreement is made based on the width of the confidence interval for LOAs (limits of agreement) in comparison to predefined clinical agreement limit. Under the theory of statistical inference, the formulae of sample size estimation are derived, which depended on the pre-determined level of α, β, the mean and the standard deviation of differences between two measurements, and the predefined limits. With this new method, the sample sizes are calculated under different parameter settings which occur frequently in method comparison studies, and Monte-Carlo simulation is used to obtain the corresponding powers. The results of Monte-Carlo simulation showed that the achieved powers could coincide with the pre-determined level of powers, thus validating the correctness of the method. The method of sample size estimation can be applied in the Bland–Altman method to assess agreement between two methods of measurement.
摘要:Bland-Altman方法被广泛用于评估两种测量方法之间的一致性。然而,关于样本容量的估计仍然是一个没有解决的问题。本文提出了一种新的Bland-Altman协议评估的样本量估计方法。Bland-Altman方法根据loa置信区间的宽度(一致限)与预定义的临床一致限进行比较,得出一致性结论。在统计推断理论的基础上,导出了基于α、β、两次测量差的均值和标准差以及预先设定的限值的样本量估计公式。该方法对方法比较研究中经常出现的不同参数设置下的样本量进行了计算,并利用蒙特卡罗模拟得到了相应的幂次。蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明,得到的功率与预定的功率水平吻合,从而验证了该方法的正确性。在Bland-Altman方法中,样本量估计方法可用于评估两种测量方法之间的一致性。
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引用次数: 169
Adaptive Design for Staggered-Start Clinical Trial 交错启动临床试验的自适应设计
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0011
A. Yuan, Qizhai Li, Ming Xiong, M. Tan
Abstract In phase II and/or III clinical trial study, there are several competing treatments, the goal is to assess the performances of the treatments at the end of the study, the trial design aims to minimize risks to the patients in the trial, according to some given allocation optimality criterion. Recently, a new type of clinical trial, the staggered-start trial has been proposed in some studies, in which different treatments enter the same trial at different times. Some basic questions for this trial are whether optimality can still be kept? under what conditions? and if so how to allocate the the coming patients to treatments to achieve such optimality? Here we propose and study a class of adaptive designs of staggered-start clinical trials, in which for given optimality criterion object, we show that as long as the initial sizes at the beginning of the successive trials are not too large relative to the total sample size, the proposed design can still achieve optimality criterion asymptotically for the allocation proportions as the ordinary trials; if these initial sample sizes have about the same magnitude as the total sample size, full optimality cannot be achieved. The proposed method is simple to use and is illustrated with several examples and a simulation study.
在II期和/或III期临床试验研究中,存在几种相互竞争的治疗方法,其目的是在研究结束时评估治疗方法的性能,试验设计的目的是根据给定的分配最优准则将试验中患者的风险最小化。近年来,一些研究提出了一种新的临床试验类型——交错开始试验,即不同的治疗方法在不同的时间进入同一试验。该试验的一些基本问题是,是否仍能保持最优性?在什么条件下?如果是这样,如何分配即将到来的病人进行治疗以达到这种最优?本文提出并研究了一类交错启动临床试验的自适应设计,其中对于给定的最优性准则对象,我们表明,只要连续试验开始时的初始规模相对于总样本量不是太大,所提出的设计仍然可以像普通试验一样渐近地达到分配比例的最优性准则;如果这些初始样本量与总样本量大致相同,则无法实现完全最优性。该方法使用简单,并通过实例和仿真研究进行了说明。
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引用次数: 0
Tree Based Method for Aggregate Survival Data Modeling 基于树的总体生存数据建模方法
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0071
Asanao Shimokawa, Y. Narita, S. Shibui, E. Miyaoka
Abstract In many scenarios, a patient in medical research is treated as a statistical unit. However, in some scenarios, we are interested in treating aggregate data as a statistical unit. In such situations, each set of aggregated data is considered to be a concept in a symbolic representation, and each concept has a hyperrectangle or multiple points in the variable space. To construct a tree-structured model from these aggregate survival data, we propose a new approach, where a datum can be included in several terminal nodes in a tree. By constructing a model under this condition, we expect to obtain a more flexible model while retaining the interpretive ease of a hierarchical structure. In this approach, the survival function of concepts that are partially included in a node is constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method, where the number of events and risks at each time point is replaced by the expectation value of the number of individual descriptions of concepts. We present an application of this proposed model using primary brain tumor patient data. As a result, we obtained a new interpretation of the data in comparison to the classical survival tree modeling methods.
在许多情况下,医学研究中的患者被视为一个统计单位。然而,在某些场景中,我们感兴趣的是将聚合数据视为统计单元。在这种情况下,每一组聚合数据都被认为是符号表示中的一个概念,每个概念在变量空间中都有一个超矩形或多个点。为了从这些总体生存数据中构建树结构模型,我们提出了一种新的方法,其中一个数据可以包含在树的几个终端节点中。通过在这种条件下构建模型,我们期望在保留分层结构的解释便利性的同时获得更灵活的模型。在这种方法中,使用Kaplan-Meier方法构建部分包含在节点中的概念的生存函数,其中每个时间点的事件和风险数量由概念的单个描述数量的期望值代替。我们提出了一个应用该模型使用原发性脑肿瘤患者的数据。因此,与经典的生存树建模方法相比,我们获得了对数据的新解释。
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引用次数: 0
Exploration of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects via Concave Fusion 凹形融合异质治疗效果探讨
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-07-13 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2018-0026
Shujie Ma, Jian Huang, Zhiwei Zhang, Mingming Liu
Abstract Understanding treatment heterogeneity is essential to the development of precision medicine, which seeks to tailor medical treatments to subgroups of patients with similar characteristics. One of the challenges of achieving this goal is that we usually do not have a priori knowledge of the grouping information of patients with respect to treatment effect. To address this problem, we consider a heterogeneous regression model which allows the coefficients for treatment variables to be subject-dependent with unknown grouping information. We develop a concave fusion penalized method for estimating the grouping structure and the subgroup-specific treatment effects, and derive an alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm for its implementation. We also study the theoretical properties of the proposed method and show that under suitable conditions there exists a local minimizer that equals the oracle least squares estimator based on a priori knowledge of the true grouping information with high probability. This provides theoretical support for making statistical inference about the subgroup-specific treatment effects using the proposed method. The proposed method is illustrated in simulation studies and illustrated with real data from an AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study.
了解治疗异质性对于精准医学的发展至关重要,精准医学旨在为具有相似特征的患者亚组量身定制医疗治疗。实现这一目标的挑战之一是,我们通常没有关于治疗效果的患者分组信息的先验知识。为了解决这个问题,我们考虑了一个异构回归模型,该模型允许处理变量的系数与未知的分组信息相关。我们提出了一种凹融合惩罚方法来估计分组结构和子组特定的处理效果,并推导了一种乘法算法的交替方向方法来实现它。我们还研究了该方法的理论性质,并证明了在适当的条件下存在一个局部极小器,该极小器等于基于高概率的真实分组信息的先验知识的预估最小二乘估计。这为使用所提出的方法对亚组特异性治疗效果进行统计推断提供了理论支持。该方法在模拟研究和艾滋病临床试验组研究的真实数据中得到了说明。
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引用次数: 33
Addressing Confounding in Predictive Models with an Application to Neuroimaging 解决预测模型中的混淆与神经影像学的应用
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2015-0030
K. Linn, Bilwaj Gaonkar, J. Doshi, C. Davatzikos, R. Shinohara
Abstract Understanding structural changes in the brain that are caused by a particular disease is a major goal of neuroimaging research. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) comprises a collection of tools that can be used to understand complex disease efxcfects across the brain. We discuss several important issues that must be considered when analyzing data from neuroimaging studies using MVPA. In particular, we focus on the consequences of confounding by non-imaging variables such as age and sex on the results of MVPA. After reviewing current practice to address confounding in neuroimaging studies, we propose an alternative approach based on inverse probability weighting. Although the proposed method is motivated by neuroimaging applications, it is broadly applicable to many problems in machine learning and predictive modeling. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach on simulated and real data examples.
了解由特定疾病引起的大脑结构变化是神经影像学研究的主要目标。多变量模式分析(MVPA)包括一系列工具,可用于了解整个大脑的复杂疾病影响。我们讨论了在使用MVPA分析神经成像研究数据时必须考虑的几个重要问题。我们特别关注年龄和性别等非影像学变量对MVPA结果的影响。在回顾了当前解决神经影像学研究中混淆的实践之后,我们提出了一种基于逆概率加权的替代方法。虽然提出的方法是由神经影像学应用驱动的,但它广泛适用于机器学习和预测建模中的许多问题。我们在模拟和真实的数据例子中证明了我们的方法的优点。
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引用次数: 38
期刊
International Journal of Biostatistics
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