The purpose of this first article is to provide a physical basis for atmospheric Rossby waves at the tropopause to clarify their properties and improve our knowledge of their role in the genesis of extreme precipitation and heat waves. By analogy with the oceanic Rossby waves, the role played by the pycnocline in ocean Rossby waves is replaced here by the interface between the polar jet and the ascending air column at the meeting of the polar and Ferrel cell circulation or between the subtropical jet and the descending air column at the meeting of the Ferrel and Hadley cell circulation. In both cases, the Rossby waves are suitable for being resonantly forced in harmonic modes by tuning their natural period to the forcing period. Here, the forcing period is one year as a result of the variation in insolation due to solar declination. A search for cause-and-effect relationships is performed from the joint representation of the amplitude and phase of (1) the velocity of the cold or warm modulated airflows at 250 mb resulting from Rossby waves, (2) the geopotential height at 500 mb, and (3) the precipitation rate or ground air temperature. This is for the dominant harmonic mode whose period can be 1/16, 1/32, or 1/64 year, which reflects the intra-seasonal variations in the rising and falling air columns at the meeting of the polar, Ferrel, and Hadley cell circulation. Harmonics determine the duration of blocking. Two case studies referring to extreme cold and heat waves are presented. Dual cyclone–anticyclone systems seem to favor extreme events. They are formed by two joint vortices of opposite signs reversing over a period, concomitantly with the involved modulated airflows at the tropopause. A second article will be oriented toward (1) the examination of different case studies in order to ascertain the common characteristics of Rossby wave patterns leading to extreme events and (2) a map of the globe revealing future trends in the occurrence of extreme events.
{"title":"Resonant Forcing by Solar Declination of Rossby Waves at the Tropopause and Implications in Extreme Events, Precipitation, and Heat Waves—Part 1: Theory","authors":"J. Pinault","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050608","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this first article is to provide a physical basis for atmospheric Rossby waves at the tropopause to clarify their properties and improve our knowledge of their role in the genesis of extreme precipitation and heat waves. By analogy with the oceanic Rossby waves, the role played by the pycnocline in ocean Rossby waves is replaced here by the interface between the polar jet and the ascending air column at the meeting of the polar and Ferrel cell circulation or between the subtropical jet and the descending air column at the meeting of the Ferrel and Hadley cell circulation. In both cases, the Rossby waves are suitable for being resonantly forced in harmonic modes by tuning their natural period to the forcing period. Here, the forcing period is one year as a result of the variation in insolation due to solar declination. A search for cause-and-effect relationships is performed from the joint representation of the amplitude and phase of (1) the velocity of the cold or warm modulated airflows at 250 mb resulting from Rossby waves, (2) the geopotential height at 500 mb, and (3) the precipitation rate or ground air temperature. This is for the dominant harmonic mode whose period can be 1/16, 1/32, or 1/64 year, which reflects the intra-seasonal variations in the rising and falling air columns at the meeting of the polar, Ferrel, and Hadley cell circulation. Harmonics determine the duration of blocking. Two case studies referring to extreme cold and heat waves are presented. Dual cyclone–anticyclone systems seem to favor extreme events. They are formed by two joint vortices of opposite signs reversing over a period, concomitantly with the involved modulated airflows at the tropopause. A second article will be oriented toward (1) the examination of different case studies in order to ascertain the common characteristics of Rossby wave patterns leading to extreme events and (2) a map of the globe revealing future trends in the occurrence of extreme events.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"5 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140962983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Wei-Chia Chin, Timothy P. Marchok
The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° E and 160° E. All five typhoons recurved north of 30° N, and the three typhoons that did not make landfall had long tracks to 50° N and beyond. The ECEPS weighted mean vector motion track forecasts from pre-formation onward are quite accurate, with track forecast spreads that are primarily related to initial position uncertainties. The ECEPS intensity forecasts have been validated relative to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Working Best Track (WBT) intensities (when available). The key results for Tokage (11 W) were the ECEPS forecasts of the intensification to a peak intensity of 100 kt, and then a rapid decay as a cold-core cyclone. For Hinnamnor (12 W), the key result was the ECEPS intensity forecasts during the post-extratropical transition period when Hinnamnor was rapidly translating poleward through the Japan Sea. For Muifa (14 W), the key advantage of the ECEPS was that intensity guidance was provided for longer periods than the JTWC 5-day forecast. The most intriguing aspect of the ECEPS forecasts for post-Merbok (15 W) was its prediction of a transition to an intense, warm-core vortex after Merbok had moved beyond 50° N and was headed toward the Aleutian Islands. The most disappointing result was that the ECEPS over-predicted the slow intensification rate of Nanmadol (16 W) until the time-to-typhoon (T2TY), but then failed to predict the large rapid intensification (RI) following the T2TY. The tentative conclusion is that the ECEPS model‘s physics are not capable of predicting the inner-core spin-up rates when a small inner-core vortex is undergoing large RI.
{"title":"ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Six Tropical Cyclones That Formed during a Long-Lasting Rossby Wave Breaking Event in the Western North Pacific","authors":"Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Wei-Chia Chin, Timothy P. Marchok","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050610","url":null,"abstract":"The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° E and 160° E. All five typhoons recurved north of 30° N, and the three typhoons that did not make landfall had long tracks to 50° N and beyond. The ECEPS weighted mean vector motion track forecasts from pre-formation onward are quite accurate, with track forecast spreads that are primarily related to initial position uncertainties. The ECEPS intensity forecasts have been validated relative to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Working Best Track (WBT) intensities (when available). The key results for Tokage (11 W) were the ECEPS forecasts of the intensification to a peak intensity of 100 kt, and then a rapid decay as a cold-core cyclone. For Hinnamnor (12 W), the key result was the ECEPS intensity forecasts during the post-extratropical transition period when Hinnamnor was rapidly translating poleward through the Japan Sea. For Muifa (14 W), the key advantage of the ECEPS was that intensity guidance was provided for longer periods than the JTWC 5-day forecast. The most intriguing aspect of the ECEPS forecasts for post-Merbok (15 W) was its prediction of a transition to an intense, warm-core vortex after Merbok had moved beyond 50° N and was headed toward the Aleutian Islands. The most disappointing result was that the ECEPS over-predicted the slow intensification rate of Nanmadol (16 W) until the time-to-typhoon (T2TY), but then failed to predict the large rapid intensification (RI) following the T2TY. The tentative conclusion is that the ECEPS model‘s physics are not capable of predicting the inner-core spin-up rates when a small inner-core vortex is undergoing large RI.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"6 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140962771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Constance Uwizewe, Jianping Li, Théogène Habumugisha, Ahmad Abdullahi Bello
This study explores the spatiotemporal variability and determinants of rainfall patterns during the March to May (MAM) season in Rwanda, incorporating an analysis of teleconnections with oceanic–atmospheric indices over the period 1983–2021. Utilizing the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, the study employs a set of statistical tools including standardized anomalies, empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), Pearson correlation, the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test, and Sen’s slope estimator to dissect the intricacies of rainfall variability, trends, and their association with large-scale climatic drivers. The findings reveal a distinct southwest to northwest rainfall gradient across Rwanda, with the MK test signaling a decline in annual precipitation, particularly in the southwest. The analysis for the MAM season reveals a general downtrend in rainfall, attributed in part to teleconnections with the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Notably, the leading EOF mode for MAM rainfall demonstrates a unimodal pattern, explaining a significant 51.19% of total variance, and underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric dynamics and moisture conveyance in shaping seasonal rainfall. The spatial correlation analysis suggests a modest linkage between MAM rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole, indicating that negative (positive) phases are likely to result in anomalously wet (dry) conditions in Rwanda. This comprehensive assessment highlights the intricate interplay between local rainfall patterns and global climatic phenomena, offering valuable insights into the meteorological underpinnings of rainfall variability during Rwanda’s critical MAM season.
本研究探讨了卢旺达 3 月至 5 月（MAM）季节降雨模式的时空变异性和决定因素，并结合了 1983-2021 年期间与海洋-大气指数的远程联系分析。该研究利用气候灾害小组红外降水站（CHIRPS）数据集，采用了一套统计工具，包括标准化异常、经验正交函数（EOF）、皮尔逊相关性、曼-肯德尔（MK）趋势检验和森斜率估计器，以剖析降雨量变化的复杂性、趋势及其与大尺度气候驱动因素的关联。研究结果表明，整个卢旺达的降雨量呈明显的西南至西北梯度，MK 检验表明年降水量下降，尤其是在西南部。对 MAM 季节的分析表明，降雨量呈总体下降趋势，部分原因在于与印度洋海面温度（SST）的遥感联系。值得注意的是，MAM 降雨量的主要 EOF 模式显示出一种单模式模式，解释了 51.19% 的显著总变异，并强调了大气动力学和水汽输送在形成季节性降雨中的关键作用。空间相关性分析表明，MAM 降水与印度洋偶极子之间存在一定联系，表明负（正）相位可能导致卢旺达出现异常的湿（干）条件。这项综合评估突出了当地降雨模式与全球气候现象之间错综复杂的相互作用，为卢旺达关键的 MAM 季节降雨量变化的气象基础提供了宝贵的见解。
{"title":"Investigation of the Historical Trends and Variability of Rainfall Patterns during the March–May Season in Rwanda","authors":"Constance Uwizewe, Jianping Li, Théogène Habumugisha, Ahmad Abdullahi Bello","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050609","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the spatiotemporal variability and determinants of rainfall patterns during the March to May (MAM) season in Rwanda, incorporating an analysis of teleconnections with oceanic–atmospheric indices over the period 1983–2021. Utilizing the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, the study employs a set of statistical tools including standardized anomalies, empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), Pearson correlation, the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test, and Sen’s slope estimator to dissect the intricacies of rainfall variability, trends, and their association with large-scale climatic drivers. The findings reveal a distinct southwest to northwest rainfall gradient across Rwanda, with the MK test signaling a decline in annual precipitation, particularly in the southwest. The analysis for the MAM season reveals a general downtrend in rainfall, attributed in part to teleconnections with the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Notably, the leading EOF mode for MAM rainfall demonstrates a unimodal pattern, explaining a significant 51.19% of total variance, and underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric dynamics and moisture conveyance in shaping seasonal rainfall. The spatial correlation analysis suggests a modest linkage between MAM rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole, indicating that negative (positive) phases are likely to result in anomalously wet (dry) conditions in Rwanda. This comprehensive assessment highlights the intricate interplay between local rainfall patterns and global climatic phenomena, offering valuable insights into the meteorological underpinnings of rainfall variability during Rwanda’s critical MAM season.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"35 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140966448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rayne Holland, Katya Seifert, Eric Saboya, M. Anwar H. Khan, Richard G. Derwent, Dudley E. Shallcross
The unprecedented reductions in anthropogenic emissions over the COVID-19 lockdowns were utilised to investigate the response of ozone (O3) concentrations to changes in its precursors across various UK sites. Ozone, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx (NO+NO2) data were obtained for a 3-year period encompassing the pandemic period (January 2019–December 2021), as well as a pre-pandemic year (2017), to better understand the contribution of precursor emissions to O3 fluctuations. Compared with pre-lockdown levels, NO and NO2 declined by up to 63% and 42%, respectively, over the lockdown periods, with the most significant changes in pollutant concentrations recorded across the urban traffic sites. O3 levels correspondingly increased by up to 30%, consistent with decreases in the [NO]/[NO2] ratio for O3 concentration response. Analysis of the response of O3 concentrations to the NOx reductions suggested that urban traffic, suburban background and suburban industrial sites operate under VOC-limited regimes, while urban background, urban industrial and rural background sites are NOx-limited. This was in agreement with the [VOC]/[NOx] ratios determined for the London Marylebone Road (LMR; urban traffic) site and the Chilbolton Observatory (CO; rural background) site, which produced values below and above 8, respectively. Conversely, [VOC]/[NOx] ratios for the London Eltham (LE; suburban background) site indicated NOx-sensitivity, which may suggest the [VOC]/[NOx] ratio for O3 concentration response may have had a slight NOx-sensitive bias. Furthermore, O3 concentration response with [NO]/[NO2] and [VOC]/[NOx] were also investigated to determine their relevance and accuracy in identifying O3-NOx-VOC relationships across UK sites. While the results obtained via utilisation of these metrics would suggest a shift in photochemical regime, it is likely that variation in O3 during this period was primarily driven by shifts in oxidant (OX; NO2 + O3) equilibrium as a result of decreasing NO2, with increased O3 transported from Europe likely having some influence.
{"title":"Elucidating the Effects of COVID-19 Lockdowns in the UK on the O3-NOx-VOC Relationship","authors":"Rayne Holland, Katya Seifert, Eric Saboya, M. Anwar H. Khan, Richard G. Derwent, Dudley E. Shallcross","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050607","url":null,"abstract":"The unprecedented reductions in anthropogenic emissions over the COVID-19 lockdowns were utilised to investigate the response of ozone (O3) concentrations to changes in its precursors across various UK sites. Ozone, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx (NO+NO2) data were obtained for a 3-year period encompassing the pandemic period (January 2019–December 2021), as well as a pre-pandemic year (2017), to better understand the contribution of precursor emissions to O3 fluctuations. Compared with pre-lockdown levels, NO and NO2 declined by up to 63% and 42%, respectively, over the lockdown periods, with the most significant changes in pollutant concentrations recorded across the urban traffic sites. O3 levels correspondingly increased by up to 30%, consistent with decreases in the [NO]/[NO2] ratio for O3 concentration response. Analysis of the response of O3 concentrations to the NOx reductions suggested that urban traffic, suburban background and suburban industrial sites operate under VOC-limited regimes, while urban background, urban industrial and rural background sites are NOx-limited. This was in agreement with the [VOC]/[NOx] ratios determined for the London Marylebone Road (LMR; urban traffic) site and the Chilbolton Observatory (CO; rural background) site, which produced values below and above 8, respectively. Conversely, [VOC]/[NOx] ratios for the London Eltham (LE; suburban background) site indicated NOx-sensitivity, which may suggest the [VOC]/[NOx] ratio for O3 concentration response may have had a slight NOx-sensitive bias. Furthermore, O3 concentration response with [NO]/[NO2] and [VOC]/[NOx] were also investigated to determine their relevance and accuracy in identifying O3-NOx-VOC relationships across UK sites. While the results obtained via utilisation of these metrics would suggest a shift in photochemical regime, it is likely that variation in O3 during this period was primarily driven by shifts in oxidant (OX; NO2 + O3) equilibrium as a result of decreasing NO2, with increased O3 transported from Europe likely having some influence.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"10 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140967859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The prediction of typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific is key to reducing human casualties and property damage. Traditional numerical forecasting models often require substantial computational resources, are high-cost, and have significant limitations in prediction speed. This research is dedicated to using deep learning methods to address the shortcomings of traditional methods. Our method (AFR-SimVP) is based on a large-kernel convolutional spatio-temporal prediction network combined with multi-feature fusion for forecasting typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific. In order to more effectively suppress the effect of noise in the dataset to enhance the generalization ability of the model, we use a multi-branch structure, incorporate an atmospheric reconstruction subtask, and propose a second-order smoothing loss to further improve the prediction ability of the model. More importantly, we innovatively propose a multi-time-step typhoon prediction network (HTAFR-SimVP) that does not use the traditional recurrent neural network family of models at all. Instead, through fine-to-coarse hierarchical temporal feature extraction and dynamic self-distillation, multi-time-step prediction is achieved using only a single regression network. In addition, combined with atmospheric field reconstruction, the network achieves integrated prediction for multiple tasks, which greatly enhances the model’s range of applications. Experiments show that our proposed network achieves optimal performance in the 24 h typhoon track prediction task. Our regression network outperforms previous recurrent network-based typhoon prediction models in the multi-time-step prediction task and also performs well in multiple integration tasks.
{"title":"Hierarchical Predictions of Fine-to-Coarse Time Span and Atmospheric Field Reconstruction for Typhoon Track Prediction","authors":"Shengye Yan, Zhendong Zhang, Wei Zheng","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050605","url":null,"abstract":"The prediction of typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific is key to reducing human casualties and property damage. Traditional numerical forecasting models often require substantial computational resources, are high-cost, and have significant limitations in prediction speed. This research is dedicated to using deep learning methods to address the shortcomings of traditional methods. Our method (AFR-SimVP) is based on a large-kernel convolutional spatio-temporal prediction network combined with multi-feature fusion for forecasting typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific. In order to more effectively suppress the effect of noise in the dataset to enhance the generalization ability of the model, we use a multi-branch structure, incorporate an atmospheric reconstruction subtask, and propose a second-order smoothing loss to further improve the prediction ability of the model. More importantly, we innovatively propose a multi-time-step typhoon prediction network (HTAFR-SimVP) that does not use the traditional recurrent neural network family of models at all. Instead, through fine-to-coarse hierarchical temporal feature extraction and dynamic self-distillation, multi-time-step prediction is achieved using only a single regression network. In addition, combined with atmospheric field reconstruction, the network achieves integrated prediction for multiple tasks, which greatly enhances the model’s range of applications. Experiments show that our proposed network achieves optimal performance in the 24 h typhoon track prediction task. Our regression network outperforms previous recurrent network-based typhoon prediction models in the multi-time-step prediction task and also performs well in multiple integration tasks.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"39 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140970911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francesco Saretto, Bishwajit Roy, Ricardo Encarnação Coelho, Alfredo Reder, Giusy Fedele, Robert Oakes, Luigia Brandimarte, Tiago Capela Lourenço
Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.
{"title":"Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain","authors":"Francesco Saretto, Bishwajit Roy, Ricardo Encarnação Coelho, Alfredo Reder, Giusy Fedele, Robert Oakes, Luigia Brandimarte, Tiago Capela Lourenço","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050606","url":null,"abstract":"Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140968296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yamina Allouche, M. Fadel, Amélie Ferté, A. Verdin, F. Ledoux, D. Courcot
In this work, PM2.5 was sampled at Dunkerque, a medium-sized city located in northern France. The mean concentration of PM2.5 during the sampling period was 12.6 ± 9.5 μg·m−3. Samples were analyzed for elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC), water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), humic-like substances (HULIS-C), water-soluble inorganic ions, and major and trace elements. The origin and the variations of species concentrations were examined using elemental enrichment factors, bivariate polar plot representations, and diagnostic concentration ratios. Secondary inorganic ions were the most abundant species (36% of PM2.5), followed by OC (12.5% of PM2.5). Secondary organic carbon (SOC) concentrations were estimated to account for 52% of OC. A good correlation between SOC and WSOC indicated that secondary formation processes significantly contribute to the WSOC concentrations. HULIS-C also represents almost 50% of WSOC. The determination of diagnostic ratios revealed the influence of anthropogenic emission sources such as integrated steelworks and fuel oil combustion. The clustering of 72 h air masses backward trajectories data evidenced that higher concentrations of PM2.5, OC, and secondary inorganic aerosols were recorded when air masses came from north-eastern Europe and the French continental sector, showing the considerable impact of long-range transport on the air quality in northern France.
{"title":"Phenomenology of the Composition of PM2.5 at an Urban Site in Northern France","authors":"Yamina Allouche, M. Fadel, Amélie Ferté, A. Verdin, F. Ledoux, D. Courcot","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050603","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, PM2.5 was sampled at Dunkerque, a medium-sized city located in northern France. The mean concentration of PM2.5 during the sampling period was 12.6 ± 9.5 μg·m−3. Samples were analyzed for elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC), water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), humic-like substances (HULIS-C), water-soluble inorganic ions, and major and trace elements. The origin and the variations of species concentrations were examined using elemental enrichment factors, bivariate polar plot representations, and diagnostic concentration ratios. Secondary inorganic ions were the most abundant species (36% of PM2.5), followed by OC (12.5% of PM2.5). Secondary organic carbon (SOC) concentrations were estimated to account for 52% of OC. A good correlation between SOC and WSOC indicated that secondary formation processes significantly contribute to the WSOC concentrations. HULIS-C also represents almost 50% of WSOC. The determination of diagnostic ratios revealed the influence of anthropogenic emission sources such as integrated steelworks and fuel oil combustion. The clustering of 72 h air masses backward trajectories data evidenced that higher concentrations of PM2.5, OC, and secondary inorganic aerosols were recorded when air masses came from north-eastern Europe and the French continental sector, showing the considerable impact of long-range transport on the air quality in northern France.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"98 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140973300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yixuan Zhang, Kesheng Meng, Lin Bao, Qizhao Lin, Svitlana Pavlova
In this study, the constant temperature control system of a heating plate was established, ethanol–diesel fuel with different proportions was prepared, and a series of experiments were carried out. The experimental system was used to observe, summarize, and analyze four evaporation and crushing modes of mixed droplets, which were explosion, liquid filament stretching, exocytosis, and ejection mode. The evaporation process of four kinds of mixed droplets in their life cycle was analyzed by normalizing the diameter square. It was proposed that the evaporation process of droplets could be divided into the following three stages: a heating stage, a fluctuating evaporation stage, and an equilibrium evaporation stage. It was also pointed out that the expansion, ejection, and micro-explosion of droplets were the causes of fluctuating evaporation. The concept of expansion and crushing intensity was put forward and the expansion and crushing intensity of ethanol/diesel mixed droplets with different proportions were calculated. The reasons why expansion and crushing intensity first increased and decreased with the increase in ethanol blending ratio were analyzed. Finally, the time proportion of ethanol–diesel mixed droplets in each evaporation stage was calculated, which explained that the time proportion of the instantaneous heating stage showed a parabolic law with the increase in ethanol content.
{"title":"Experimental Study on Evaporation and Micro-Explosion Characteristics of Ethanol and Diesel Blended Droplets","authors":"Yixuan Zhang, Kesheng Meng, Lin Bao, Qizhao Lin, Svitlana Pavlova","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050604","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the constant temperature control system of a heating plate was established, ethanol–diesel fuel with different proportions was prepared, and a series of experiments were carried out. The experimental system was used to observe, summarize, and analyze four evaporation and crushing modes of mixed droplets, which were explosion, liquid filament stretching, exocytosis, and ejection mode. The evaporation process of four kinds of mixed droplets in their life cycle was analyzed by normalizing the diameter square. It was proposed that the evaporation process of droplets could be divided into the following three stages: a heating stage, a fluctuating evaporation stage, and an equilibrium evaporation stage. It was also pointed out that the expansion, ejection, and micro-explosion of droplets were the causes of fluctuating evaporation. The concept of expansion and crushing intensity was put forward and the expansion and crushing intensity of ethanol/diesel mixed droplets with different proportions were calculated. The reasons why expansion and crushing intensity first increased and decreased with the increase in ethanol blending ratio were analyzed. Finally, the time proportion of ethanol–diesel mixed droplets in each evaporation stage was calculated, which explained that the time proportion of the instantaneous heating stage showed a parabolic law with the increase in ethanol content.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"34 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140975542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ozone pollution in chemical industrial parks is severe and complicated and is significantly influenced by pollutant emissions and meteorological parameters. In this study, we innovatively investigated the formation rules of ozone by using observation-based analyses and a gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) model, focusing on a typical chemical industrial park located in the Yangtze River Delta of China. The results revealed that ozone concentration was positively correlated with temperature while negatively correlated with NO2 concentration and relative humidity (RH). Ozone pollution was predominantly observed from April to October (M4–10). The optimized GBDT model was subsequently utilized to establish a specific and quantifiable relationship between each single dominant impact factor (RH, NO2, temperature, and PM2.5) and ozone within a complex and uncertain multi-factor context during M4–10. Detailed discussions were conducted on the reaction rate of ozone-related to different levels of RH and temperature. The accumulation of ozone was favored by high temperature and low RH, with the maximum ozone concentration observed at the RH of 50% and the temperature of 35 °C. The NO2-O3 change curve exhibited distinct phases, including a period of stability, gradual increase, rapid increase, and equilibrium. During the second and third periods, the ratio of ozone production to NO2 consumption was 0.10 and 2.73, respectively. Furthermore, there was a non-monotonic relationship between variations in ozone concentration and PM2.5 concentration. Hence, it is imperative to implement fine control strategies in the park, such as adopting seasonal production strategies, implementing targeted measures for controlling NOx and active VOCs, and employing special control methods during periods of high temperature. This study provides aid in achieving effective management of localized ozone pollution and ensuring compliance with air quality standards.
{"title":"Observation-Based Ozone Formation Rules by Gradient Boosting Decision Trees Model in Typical Chemical Industrial Parks","authors":"Nana Cheng, Deji Jing, Zhenyu Gu, Xingnong Cai, Zhanhong Shi, Sujing Li, Liang Chen, Wei Li, Qiaoli Wang","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050600","url":null,"abstract":"Ozone pollution in chemical industrial parks is severe and complicated and is significantly influenced by pollutant emissions and meteorological parameters. In this study, we innovatively investigated the formation rules of ozone by using observation-based analyses and a gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) model, focusing on a typical chemical industrial park located in the Yangtze River Delta of China. The results revealed that ozone concentration was positively correlated with temperature while negatively correlated with NO2 concentration and relative humidity (RH). Ozone pollution was predominantly observed from April to October (M4–10). The optimized GBDT model was subsequently utilized to establish a specific and quantifiable relationship between each single dominant impact factor (RH, NO2, temperature, and PM2.5) and ozone within a complex and uncertain multi-factor context during M4–10. Detailed discussions were conducted on the reaction rate of ozone-related to different levels of RH and temperature. The accumulation of ozone was favored by high temperature and low RH, with the maximum ozone concentration observed at the RH of 50% and the temperature of 35 °C. The NO2-O3 change curve exhibited distinct phases, including a period of stability, gradual increase, rapid increase, and equilibrium. During the second and third periods, the ratio of ozone production to NO2 consumption was 0.10 and 2.73, respectively. Furthermore, there was a non-monotonic relationship between variations in ozone concentration and PM2.5 concentration. Hence, it is imperative to implement fine control strategies in the park, such as adopting seasonal production strategies, implementing targeted measures for controlling NOx and active VOCs, and employing special control methods during periods of high temperature. This study provides aid in achieving effective management of localized ozone pollution and ensuring compliance with air quality standards.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"5 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140982099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiawei Cui, Juan Li, Xingfa Gu, Wenhao Zhang, Dong Wang, Xiuling Sun, Yulin Zhan, Jian Yang, Yan Liu, Xiufeng Yang
Due to budget and sensor technology constraints, a single sensor cannot simultaneously provide observational images with both a high spatial and temporal resolution. To solve the above problem, the spatiotemporal fusion (STF) method was proposed and proved to be an indispensable tool for monitoring land surface dynamics. There are relatively few systematic reviews of the STF method. Bibliometrics is a valuable method for analyzing the scientific literature, but it has not yet been applied to the comprehensive analysis of the STF method. Therefore, in this paper, we use bibliometrics and scientific mapping to analyze the 2967 citation data from the Web of Science from 1991 to 2023 in a metrological manner, covering the themes of STF, data fusion, multi-temporal analysis, and spatial analysis. The results of the literature analysis reveal that the number of articles displays a slow to rapid increase during the study period, but decreases significantly in 2023. Research institutions in China (1059 papers) and the United States (432 papers) are the top two contributors in the field. The keywords “Sentinel”, “deep learning” (DL), and “LSTM” (Long Short-Term Memory) appeared most frequently in the past three years. In the future, remote sensing spatiotemporal fusion research can address more of the limitations of heterogeneous landscapes and climatic conditions to improve fused images’ accuracy.
由于预算和传感器技术的限制，单个传感器无法同时提供高空间分辨率和高时间分辨率的观测图像。为了解决上述问题，人们提出了时空融合（STF）方法，该方法被证明是监测地表动态不可或缺的工具。关于 STF 方法的系统综述相对较少。文献计量学是一种有价值的科学文献分析方法，但尚未应用于 STF 方法的综合分析。因此，在本文中，我们利用文献计量学和科学制图法对 Web of Science 1991 年至 2023 年的 2967 篇引文数据进行了计量分析，涵盖了 STF、数据融合、多时态分析和空间分析等主题。文献分析结果表明，在研究期间，论文数量呈现出由慢到快的增长趋势，但到 2023 年，论文数量明显减少。中国的研究机构（1059 篇）和美国的研究机构（432 篇）是该领域的前两位贡献者。过去三年中，"哨兵"、"深度学习"（DL）和 "LSTM"（长短期记忆）等关键词出现的频率最高。未来，遥感时空融合研究可以更多地解决异质地貌和气候条件的限制，以提高融合图像的准确性。
{"title":"Comprehensive Analysis of Temporal–Spatial Fusion from 1991 to 2023 Using Bibliometric Tools","authors":"Jiawei Cui, Juan Li, Xingfa Gu, Wenhao Zhang, Dong Wang, Xiuling Sun, Yulin Zhan, Jian Yang, Yan Liu, Xiufeng Yang","doi":"10.3390/atmos15050598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050598","url":null,"abstract":"Due to budget and sensor technology constraints, a single sensor cannot simultaneously provide observational images with both a high spatial and temporal resolution. To solve the above problem, the spatiotemporal fusion (STF) method was proposed and proved to be an indispensable tool for monitoring land surface dynamics. There are relatively few systematic reviews of the STF method. Bibliometrics is a valuable method for analyzing the scientific literature, but it has not yet been applied to the comprehensive analysis of the STF method. Therefore, in this paper, we use bibliometrics and scientific mapping to analyze the 2967 citation data from the Web of Science from 1991 to 2023 in a metrological manner, covering the themes of STF, data fusion, multi-temporal analysis, and spatial analysis. The results of the literature analysis reveal that the number of articles displays a slow to rapid increase during the study period, but decreases significantly in 2023. Research institutions in China (1059 papers) and the United States (432 papers) are the top two contributors in the field. The keywords “Sentinel”, “deep learning” (DL), and “LSTM” (Long Short-Term Memory) appeared most frequently in the past three years. In the future, remote sensing spatiotemporal fusion research can address more of the limitations of heterogeneous landscapes and climatic conditions to improve fused images’ accuracy.","PeriodicalId":504666,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"47 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140980949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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