{"title":"ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's future","authors":"D. Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, R. Haywood","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-929-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>\u0000 </jats:p>","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"54 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141805538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Recent observation-based studies suggest that the Amazon rainforest has lost substantial resilience since 1990, indicating that the forest might undergo a critical transition in the near future due to global warming and deforestation. The idea is to use trends in a lag-1 auto-correlation of leaf density as an early-warning signal of an imminent critical threshold for rainforest dieback. Here we test whether the observed change in auto-correlations could arise from internal variability using historical and control simulations of nine sixth-generation Earth system model ensembles (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6). We quantify trends in the leaf area index auto-correlation from both models and satellite-observed vegetation optical depth from 1990 to 2017. Four models reproduce the observed trend with at least one historical realization whereby the observations lie at the upper limit of model variability. Three out of these four models exhibit similar behavior in control runs, suggesting that historical forcing is not necessary for simulating the observed trends. Furthermore, we do not observe a critical transition in any future runs under the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) until 2100 in the four models that best reproduce the past observed trends. Hence, the currently observed trends could be caused simply by internal variability and, unless the data records are extended, have limited applicability as an early-warning signal. Our results suggest that the current rapid decline in the Amazon rainforest coverage is not foremost caused by global warming.
{"title":"Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability","authors":"Raphael Grodofzig, M. Renoult, Thorsten Mauritsen","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-913-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-913-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Recent observation-based studies suggest that the Amazon rainforest has lost substantial resilience since 1990, indicating that the forest might undergo a critical transition in the near future due to global warming and deforestation. The idea is to use trends in a lag-1 auto-correlation of leaf density as an early-warning signal of an imminent critical threshold for rainforest dieback. Here we test whether the observed change in auto-correlations could arise from internal variability using historical and control simulations of nine sixth-generation Earth system model ensembles (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6). We quantify trends in the leaf area index auto-correlation from both models and satellite-observed vegetation optical depth from 1990 to 2017. Four models reproduce the observed trend with at least one historical realization whereby the observations lie at the upper limit of model variability. Three out of these four models exhibit similar behavior in control runs, suggesting that historical forcing is not necessary for simulating the observed trends. Furthermore, we do not observe a critical transition in any future runs under the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) until 2100 in the four models that best reproduce the past observed trends. Hence, the currently observed trends could be caused simply by internal variability and, unless the data records are extended, have limited applicability as an early-warning signal. Our results suggest that the current rapid decline in the Amazon rainforest coverage is not foremost caused by global warming.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"55 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141807025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Marine biota and biogeophysical mechanisms, such as phytoplankton light absorption, have attracted increasing attention in recent climate studies. Under global warming, the influence of phytoplankton on the climate system is expected to change. Previous studies analyzed the impact of phytoplankton light absorption under prescribed future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the role of this biogeophysical mechanism under freely evolving atmospheric CO2 concentration and future CO2 emissions remains unknown. To shed light on this research gap, we perform simulations with the EcoGEnIE Earth system model (ESM) and prescribe CO2 emissions out to the year 2500 following the four Extended Concentration Pathway (ECP) scenarios, which for practical purposes we call Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Under all RCP scenarios, our results indicate that phytoplankton light absorption leads to a shallower remineralization of organic matter and a reduced export efficiency, weakening the biological carbon pump. In contrast, this biogeophysical mechanism increases the surface chlorophyll by ∼ 2 %, the sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.2 to 0.6 °C, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 8 %–20 % and the atmospheric temperature by 0.3 to 0.9 °C. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the magnitude of changes due to phytoplankton light absorption is similar. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in the climate system are less pronounced due to decreasing ecosystem productivity as temperature increases, highlighting a reduced effect of phytoplankton light absorption under strong warming. Additionally, this work highlights the major role of phytoplankton light absorption on the climate system, suggesting highly uncertain feedbacks on the carbon cycle with uncertainties that may be in the range of those known from the land biota.
{"title":"A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios","authors":"Rémy Asselot, Phil Holden, F. Lunkeit, I. Hense","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-875-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Marine biota and biogeophysical mechanisms, such as phytoplankton light absorption, have attracted increasing attention in recent climate studies. Under global warming, the influence of phytoplankton on the climate system is expected to change. Previous studies analyzed the impact of phytoplankton light absorption under prescribed future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the role of this biogeophysical mechanism under freely evolving atmospheric CO2 concentration and future CO2 emissions remains unknown. To shed light on this research gap, we perform simulations with the EcoGEnIE Earth system model (ESM) and prescribe CO2 emissions out to the year 2500 following the four Extended Concentration Pathway (ECP) scenarios, which for practical purposes we call Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Under all RCP scenarios, our results indicate that phytoplankton light absorption leads to a shallower remineralization of organic matter and a reduced export efficiency, weakening the biological carbon pump. In contrast, this biogeophysical mechanism increases the surface chlorophyll by ∼ 2 %, the sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.2 to 0.6 °C, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 8 %–20 % and the atmospheric temperature by 0.3 to 0.9 °C. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the magnitude of changes due to phytoplankton light absorption is similar. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in the climate system are less pronounced due to decreasing ecosystem productivity as temperature increases, highlighting a reduced effect of phytoplankton light absorption under strong warming. Additionally, this work highlights the major role of phytoplankton light absorption on the climate system, suggesting highly uncertain feedbacks on the carbon cycle with uncertainties that may be in the range of those known from the land biota.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"39 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141644879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Coping with the threats posed by multiple negative Earth tipping points calls for large coordinated actions conducive to creating long-lasting positive synergies between human and biophysical systems. Boundary concepts, engaging narratives and aspirational visions play a crucial role in coordinating the kinds of deliberate transformations needed to address global existential challenges. The regenerative sustainability vision and paradigm offers such an enabling cognitive and discursive capacity to integrate the insights from social and natural sciences so net-positive tipping points towards a safe and just space for humanity can better be operationalised, coordinated and enacted within and across multiple kinds of social–ecological systems.
{"title":"ESD Ideas: Positive tipping points towards global regenerative systems","authors":"J. Tàbara","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-853-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Coping with the threats posed by multiple negative Earth tipping points calls for large coordinated actions conducive to creating long-lasting positive synergies between human and biophysical systems. Boundary concepts, engaging narratives and aspirational visions play a crucial role in coordinating the kinds of deliberate transformations needed to address global existential challenges. The regenerative sustainability vision and paradigm offers such an enabling cognitive and discursive capacity to integrate the insights from social and natural sciences so net-positive tipping points towards a safe and just space for humanity can better be operationalised, coordinated and enacted within and across multiple kinds of social–ecological systems.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141654744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sacha Sinet, P. Ashwin, A. S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorized as a core tipping element as, under climate change, it is believed to be prone to critical transition implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On the one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that rate- and noise-induced effects have substantial impact on the AMOC stability, as those imply that leaving the AMOC bistable regime is neither necessary nor sufficient for the AMOC to tip. Also, we find that rate-induced effects tend to allow a stabilization of the AMOC in cases where the peak of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet meltwater flux occurs before the peak of the Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater flux.
{"title":"AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise","authors":"Sacha Sinet, P. Ashwin, A. S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-859-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorized as a core tipping element as, under climate change, it is believed to be prone to critical transition implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On the one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that rate- and noise-induced effects have substantial impact on the AMOC stability, as those imply that leaving the AMOC bistable regime is neither necessary nor sufficient for the AMOC to tip. Also, we find that rate-induced effects tend to allow a stabilization of the AMOC in cases where the peak of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet meltwater flux occurs before the peak of the Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater flux.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"24 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141653625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. It has been shown that a theoretically derived relation between annual global mean temperature variability and climate sensitivity held in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble (Cox et al., 2018a, hereafter CHW18). This so-called emergent relationship was then used with observations to constrain the value of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to about 3 °C. Since this study was published, CMIP6, a newer ensemble of climate models has become available. Schlund et al. (2020) showed that many of the emergent constraints found in CMIP5 were much weaker in the newer ensemble, including that of CHW18. As the constraint in CHW18 was based on a relationship derived from reasonable physical principles, it is of interest to find out why it is weaker in CMIP6. Here, we look in detail at the assumptions made in deriving the emergent relationship in CHW18 and test them for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. We show one assumption, that of low correlation and variation between ECS and the internal variability parameter, a parameter that captures chaotic internal variability and sub-annual (fast) feedbacks, that while true for CMIP5 is not true for CMIP6. When accounted for, an emergent relationship appears once again in both CMIP ensembles, implying the theoretical basis is still applicable while the original assumption in CHW18 is not. Unfortunately, however, we are unable to provide an emergent constraint in CMIP6 as observational estimates of the internal variability parameter are too uncertain.
{"title":"Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6?","authors":"M. Williamson, P. Cox, C. Huntingford, F. Nijsse","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-829-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. It has been shown that a theoretically derived relation between annual global mean temperature variability and climate sensitivity held in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble (Cox et al., 2018a, hereafter CHW18). This so-called emergent relationship was then used with observations to constrain the value of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to about 3 °C. Since this study was published, CMIP6, a newer ensemble of climate models has become available. Schlund et al. (2020) showed that many of the emergent constraints found in CMIP5 were much weaker in the newer ensemble, including that of CHW18. As the constraint in CHW18 was based on a relationship derived from reasonable physical principles, it is of interest to find out why it is weaker in CMIP6. Here, we look in detail at the assumptions made in deriving the emergent relationship in CHW18 and test them for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. We show one assumption, that of low correlation and variation between ECS and the internal variability parameter, a parameter that captures chaotic internal variability and sub-annual (fast) feedbacks, that while true for CMIP5 is not true for CMIP6. When accounted for, an emergent relationship appears once again in both CMIP ensembles, implying the theoretical basis is still applicable while the original assumption in CHW18 is not. Unfortunately, however, we are unable to provide an emergent constraint in CMIP6 as observational estimates of the internal variability parameter are too uncertain.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"78 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141657827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Our study utilizes a global reanalysis of near-surface daily air temperature data spanning the years from 1949 to 2019 to construct climate networks. By employing community detection for each year, we reveal the evolving community structure of the climate network within the context of global warming. Our findings indicate significant changes in measures such as network modularity and the number of communities over the past 30 years. Notably, the community structure of the climate network has undergone a discernible transition since the early 1980s. We attribute this transition to the substantial increase in isolated nodes since the 1980s, primarily concentrated in equatorial ocean regions. Additionally, we demonstrate that nodes experiencing amplified isolation tend to diminish connectivity with other nodes globally, particularly those within the same oceanic basin, while showing a significant strengthening of connections with the Eurasian and North African continents. We deduce that the mechanism driving amplified isolation in the climate network may be comprehended through the weakening of tropical circulations, such as the Hadley cell and Walker circulation, in response to increasing greenhouse gases.
{"title":"Unveiling amplified isolation in climate networks due to global warming","authors":"Yifan Cheng, Panjie Qiao, Meiyi Hou, Yuan Chen, Wenqi Liu, Yongwen Zhang","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-779-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-779-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Our study utilizes a global reanalysis of near-surface daily air temperature data spanning the years from 1949 to 2019 to construct climate networks. By employing community detection for each year, we reveal the evolving community structure of the climate network within the context of global warming. Our findings indicate significant changes in measures such as network modularity and the number of communities over the past 30 years. Notably, the community structure of the climate network has undergone a discernible transition since the early 1980s. We attribute this transition to the substantial increase in isolated nodes since the 1980s, primarily concentrated in equatorial ocean regions. Additionally, we demonstrate that nodes experiencing amplified isolation tend to diminish connectivity with other nodes globally, particularly those within the same oceanic basin, while showing a significant strengthening of connections with the Eurasian and North African continents. We deduce that the mechanism driving amplified isolation in the climate network may be comprehended through the weakening of tropical circulations, such as the Hadley cell and Walker circulation, in response to increasing greenhouse gases.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"3 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141344925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yitong Yao, P. Ciais, E. Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, N. Viovy
Abstract. The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in global carbon storage, but a minor destabilization of these forests could result in considerable carbon loss. Among the external factors affecting vegetation, elevated CO2 (eCO2) levels have long been anticipated to have positive impacts on vegetation, including the direct enhancement of both photosynthesis and productivity and increasing water use efficiency. However, the overall impact of eCO2 on the net carbon balance, especially concerning tree-mortality-induced carbon loss and recovery following extreme drought events, has remained elusive. Here, we use a process-based model that couples physiological CO2 effects with demography and both drought mortality and resistance processes. The model was previously calibrated to reproduce observed drought responses of Amazon forest sites. The model results, based on factorial simulations with and without eCO2, reveal that eCO2 enhances forest growth and promotes competition between trees, leading to more natural self-thinning of forest stands. This occurs following a growth–mortality trade-off response, although the growth outweighs the tree loss. Additionally, eCO2 provides water-saving benefits, reducing the risk of tree mortality during drought episodes. However, extra carbon losses could still occur due to an eCO2-induced increase in background biomass density, leading to “more carbon available to lose” when severe droughts happen. Furthermore, we found that eCO2 accelerates drought recovery and enhances drought resistance and resilience. By delving into the less-explored aspect of tree mortality response to eCO2, the model improvements advance our understanding of how carbon balance responds to eCO2, particularly regarding mechanisms of continuous competition-induced carbon loss vs. pulses of drought-induced carbon loss. These findings provide valuable insights into the intricate ways in which rising CO2 influences forest carbon dynamics and vulnerability, offering a critical understanding of the Amazon rainforest's evolution amidst more frequent and intense extreme climate events.
{"title":"The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest","authors":"Yitong Yao, P. Ciais, E. Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, N. Viovy","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-763-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in global carbon storage, but a minor destabilization of these forests could result in considerable carbon loss. Among the external factors affecting vegetation, elevated CO2 (eCO2) levels have long been anticipated to have positive impacts on vegetation, including the direct enhancement of both photosynthesis and productivity and increasing water use efficiency. However, the overall impact of eCO2 on the net carbon balance, especially concerning tree-mortality-induced carbon loss and recovery following extreme drought events, has remained elusive. Here, we use a process-based model that couples physiological CO2 effects with demography and both drought mortality and resistance processes. The model was previously calibrated to reproduce observed drought responses of Amazon forest sites. The model results, based on factorial simulations with and without eCO2, reveal that eCO2 enhances forest growth and promotes competition between trees, leading to more natural self-thinning of forest stands. This occurs following a growth–mortality trade-off response, although the growth outweighs the tree loss. Additionally, eCO2 provides water-saving benefits, reducing the risk of tree mortality during drought episodes. However, extra carbon losses could still occur due to an eCO2-induced increase in background biomass density, leading to “more carbon available to lose” when severe droughts happen. Furthermore, we found that eCO2 accelerates drought recovery and enhances drought resistance and resilience. By delving into the less-explored aspect of tree mortality response to eCO2, the model improvements advance our understanding of how carbon balance responds to eCO2, particularly regarding mechanisms of continuous competition-induced carbon loss vs. pulses of drought-induced carbon loss. These findings provide valuable insights into the intricate ways in which rising CO2 influences forest carbon dynamics and vulnerability, offering a critical understanding of the Amazon rainforest's evolution amidst more frequent and intense extreme climate events.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"42 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141347946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mathieu Vrac, Denis Allard, G. Mariéthoz, S. Thao, Lucas Schmutz
Abstract. For investigating, assessing, and anticipating climate change, tens of global climate models (GCMs) have been designed, each modelling the Earth system slightly differently. To extract a robust signal from the diverse simulations and outputs, models are typically gathered into multi-model ensembles (MMEs). Those are then summarized in various ways, including (possibly weighted) multi-model means, medians, or quantiles. In this work, we introduce a new probability aggregation method termed “alpha pooling” which builds an aggregated cumulative distribution function (CDF) designed to be closer to a reference CDF over the calibration (historical) period. The aggregated CDFs can then be used to perform bias adjustment of the raw climate simulations, hence performing a “multi-model bias correction”. In practice, each CDF is first transformed according to a non-linear transformation that depends on a parameter α. Then, a weight is assigned to each transformed CDF. This weight is an increasing function of the CDF closeness to the reference transformed CDF. Key to the α pooling is a parameter α that describes the type of transformation and hence the type of aggregation, generalizing both linear and log-linear pooling methods. We first establish that α pooling is a proper aggregation method by verifying some optimal properties. Then, focusing on climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation over western Europe, several experiments are run in order to assess the performance of α pooling against methods currently available, including multi-model means and weighted variants. A reanalysis-based evaluation as well as a perfect model experiment and a sensitivity analysis to the set of climate models are run. Our findings demonstrate the superiority of the proposed pooling method, indicating that α pooling presents a potent way to combine GCM CDFs. The results of this study also show that our unique concept of CDF pooling strategy for multi-model bias correction is a credible alternative to usual GCM-by-GCM bias correction methods by allowing handling and considering several climate models at once.
{"title":"Distribution-based pooling for combination and multi-model bias correction of climate simulations","authors":"Mathieu Vrac, Denis Allard, G. Mariéthoz, S. Thao, Lucas Schmutz","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-735-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. For investigating, assessing, and anticipating climate change, tens of global climate models (GCMs) have been designed, each modelling the Earth system slightly differently. To extract a robust signal from the diverse simulations and outputs, models are typically gathered into multi-model ensembles (MMEs). Those are then summarized in various ways, including (possibly weighted) multi-model means, medians, or quantiles. In this work, we introduce a new probability aggregation method termed “alpha pooling” which builds an aggregated cumulative distribution function (CDF) designed to be closer to a reference CDF over the calibration (historical) period. The aggregated CDFs can then be used to perform bias adjustment of the raw climate simulations, hence performing a “multi-model bias correction”. In practice, each CDF is first transformed according to a non-linear transformation that depends on a parameter α. Then, a weight is assigned to each transformed CDF. This weight is an increasing function of the CDF closeness to the reference transformed CDF. Key to the α pooling is a parameter α that describes the type of transformation and hence the type of aggregation, generalizing both linear and log-linear pooling methods. We first establish that α pooling is a proper aggregation method by verifying some optimal properties. Then, focusing on climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation over western Europe, several experiments are run in order to assess the performance of α pooling against methods currently available, including multi-model means and weighted variants. A reanalysis-based evaluation as well as a perfect model experiment and a sensitivity analysis to the set of climate models are run. Our findings demonstrate the superiority of the proposed pooling method, indicating that α pooling presents a potent way to combine GCM CDFs. The results of this study also show that our unique concept of CDF pooling strategy for multi-model bias correction is a credible alternative to usual GCM-by-GCM bias correction methods by allowing handling and considering several climate models at once.\u0000","PeriodicalId":504863,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":"38 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141346050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Soufiane Karmouche, E. Galytska, G. Meehl, Jakob Runge, Katja Weigel, Veronika Eyring
Abstract. Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.
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