Pub Date : 2024-07-21DOI: 10.1177/14651165241257785
Orit Kedar, Odelia Oshri, Lotem Halevy
Why, despite increased female support, do social democratic parties (SDPs) in most Western European countries face electoral decline? To study this puzzle, we harness a well-documented regularity: diminishing support for SDPs by manual workers and their increased support for the far right. We contend that this trend is intensified in contexts where the economic positions of SDPs align with market-oriented policies or converge with those of the far right. Additionally, as men are disproportionately represented among manual workers, this shift contributes to the reversal of the gender gap in support for SDPs. Drawing on public opinion data from 18 countries spanning half a century, along with labor and party economic position data, our findings substantiate this argument.
{"title":"Party positions and the changing gender gap(s) in voting","authors":"Orit Kedar, Odelia Oshri, Lotem Halevy","doi":"10.1177/14651165241257785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241257785","url":null,"abstract":"Why, despite increased female support, do social democratic parties (SDPs) in most Western European countries face electoral decline? To study this puzzle, we harness a well-documented regularity: diminishing support for SDPs by manual workers and their increased support for the far right. We contend that this trend is intensified in contexts where the economic positions of SDPs align with market-oriented policies or converge with those of the far right. Additionally, as men are disproportionately represented among manual workers, this shift contributes to the reversal of the gender gap in support for SDPs. Drawing on public opinion data from 18 countries spanning half a century, along with labor and party economic position data, our findings substantiate this argument.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":"22 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-10DOI: 10.1177/14651165241257779
François Briatte, Camille Kelbel, Julien Navarro
In Europe, the multiplication of elections makes the election calendar a decisive issue given the decreasing participatory trend. Turnout is expected to be higher in simultaneous elections, while it lessens if several elections are held over a short period. The saliency of the preceding ballot may also affect participation in the next one. In this article, we argue that these temporal effects are crucial for European Parliament elections due to their second-order nature. We analyse how the position, frequency and nature of domestic ballots affect European Parliament elections turnout since 1979. Our results indicate that the participation level is less affected by the timing of elections than by their overall frequency. The type of preceding election also matters, although not the second-order nature per se.
{"title":"Do (too many) elections depress participation? How the position, frequency and nature of domestic ballots affect turnout in European Parliament elections","authors":"François Briatte, Camille Kelbel, Julien Navarro","doi":"10.1177/14651165241257779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241257779","url":null,"abstract":"In Europe, the multiplication of elections makes the election calendar a decisive issue given the decreasing participatory trend. Turnout is expected to be higher in simultaneous elections, while it lessens if several elections are held over a short period. The saliency of the preceding ballot may also affect participation in the next one. In this article, we argue that these temporal effects are crucial for European Parliament elections due to their second-order nature. We analyse how the position, frequency and nature of domestic ballots affect European Parliament elections turnout since 1979. Our results indicate that the participation level is less affected by the timing of elections than by their overall frequency. The type of preceding election also matters, although not the second-order nature per se.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":" 87","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141365780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-09DOI: 10.1177/14651165241251833
Patrick Clasen
This article argues that citizens structure their fiscal solidarity with other European Union countries along a ‘centre–periphery’ divide. This claim is empirically investigated using a Heckman probit selection model on two surveys in 2020 and 2021 among citizens of 13 European countries, which allows to account for differences in the familiarity of the issue and other countries. The results show that individuals in centre countries are more likely to express solidarity with other centre countries than with periphery countries, and vice versa. More broadly, the findings show that citizens perceive a power hierarchy among European Union member states, and that there is a spatial relational dimension to European fiscal solidarity. These results underscore the challenges facing the European Union in achieving greater fiscal solidarity. They also highlight the need to address the structural inequalities between member states.
{"title":"Solidarity on a divided continent: Perceptions of ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’ determine European citizens’ willingness to help other EU countries","authors":"Patrick Clasen","doi":"10.1177/14651165241251833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241251833","url":null,"abstract":"This article argues that citizens structure their fiscal solidarity with other European Union countries along a ‘centre–periphery’ divide. This claim is empirically investigated using a Heckman probit selection model on two surveys in 2020 and 2021 among citizens of 13 European countries, which allows to account for differences in the familiarity of the issue and other countries. The results show that individuals in centre countries are more likely to express solidarity with other centre countries than with periphery countries, and vice versa. More broadly, the findings show that citizens perceive a power hierarchy among European Union member states, and that there is a spatial relational dimension to European fiscal solidarity. These results underscore the challenges facing the European Union in achieving greater fiscal solidarity. They also highlight the need to address the structural inequalities between member states.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":" 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140996709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-22DOI: 10.1177/14651165241246384
Lisanne de Blok, M. Heermann, Julian Schuessler, Dirk Leuffen, Catherine E. de Vries
Differentiated integration is often considered a solution to gridlock in the European Union. However, questions remain concerning its perceived legitimacy among the public. While research shows that most citizens are not, in principle, opposed to differentiated integration – although support varies across different differentiated integration models and different country contexts – we still know little about the role institutional design plays in citizens’ evaluations of differentiated integration. This article inspects how citizens evaluate different hypothetical differentiated integration arrangements, with varying decision-making procedures, using a conjoint experiment. We ask whether institutional arrangements can overcome citizens’ preference heterogeneity over differentiated integration, and thereby foster the legitimacy of a differentiated European Union. We find that while a majority of citizens care about the inclusiveness of differentiated integration arrangements, they also support limiting the number of veto points. Our analysis also reveals noteworthy differences across citizens with pro- and anti-European Union attitudes in the perceived fairness of differentiated integration arrangements.
{"title":"All on board? The role of institutional design for public support for differentiated integration","authors":"Lisanne de Blok, M. Heermann, Julian Schuessler, Dirk Leuffen, Catherine E. de Vries","doi":"10.1177/14651165241246384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241246384","url":null,"abstract":"Differentiated integration is often considered a solution to gridlock in the European Union. However, questions remain concerning its perceived legitimacy among the public. While research shows that most citizens are not, in principle, opposed to differentiated integration – although support varies across different differentiated integration models and different country contexts – we still know little about the role institutional design plays in citizens’ evaluations of differentiated integration. This article inspects how citizens evaluate different hypothetical differentiated integration arrangements, with varying decision-making procedures, using a conjoint experiment. We ask whether institutional arrangements can overcome citizens’ preference heterogeneity over differentiated integration, and thereby foster the legitimacy of a differentiated European Union. We find that while a majority of citizens care about the inclusiveness of differentiated integration arrangements, they also support limiting the number of veto points. Our analysis also reveals noteworthy differences across citizens with pro- and anti-European Union attitudes in the perceived fairness of differentiated integration arrangements.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140677774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-18DOI: 10.1177/14651165241239637
Camille Tremblay-Antoine, Steve Jacob, Yannick Dufresne, Patrick Poncet, S. Dinan
The uniqueness of the European Parliament, as well as the magnitude of impact its decisions wield over member states, are elements that capture researchers’ attention. However, several of this institution’s particularities have made broad analysis of the textual content it produces difficult. This research note presents Vitrine Démocratique, a new, publicly accessible, and centralized database structuring interventions made in the European Parliament starting in 2014, both in their original languages and translated to English. The process by which this high-velocity database was created is presented, as well as a descriptive overview of the contents of this data source, which is continuously updated on a daily basis.
{"title":"An open window into politics: A structured database of plenary sessions of the European Parliament","authors":"Camille Tremblay-Antoine, Steve Jacob, Yannick Dufresne, Patrick Poncet, S. Dinan","doi":"10.1177/14651165241239637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241239637","url":null,"abstract":"The uniqueness of the European Parliament, as well as the magnitude of impact its decisions wield over member states, are elements that capture researchers’ attention. However, several of this institution’s particularities have made broad analysis of the textual content it produces difficult. This research note presents Vitrine Démocratique, a new, publicly accessible, and centralized database structuring interventions made in the European Parliament starting in 2014, both in their original languages and translated to English. The process by which this high-velocity database was created is presented, as well as a descriptive overview of the contents of this data source, which is continuously updated on a daily basis.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":" 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140687765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-18DOI: 10.1177/14651165241237136
L. Hooghe, G. Marks, Ryan Bakker, Seth Jolly, Jonathan Polk, Jan Rovny, Marco Steenbergen, M. Vachudova
Support for Ukraine against Russian aggression has been strong across Europe, but it is far from uniform. An expert survey of the positions taken by political parties in 29 countries conducted mid-2023 reveals that 97 of 269 parties reject one or more of the following: providing weapons, hosting refugees, supporting Ukraine's path to European Union membership, or accepting higher energy costs. Where the perceived threat from Russia is most severe, we find the greatest levels of support for Ukraine. However, ideology appears to be far more influential. The level of a party's populist rhetoric and its European Union skepticism explain the bulk of variation in support for Ukraine despite our finding that many strongly populist and European Union-skeptical parties take moderate pro-Ukraine positions when in government.
{"title":"The Russian threat and the consolidation of the West: How populism and EU-skepticism shape party support for Ukraine","authors":"L. Hooghe, G. Marks, Ryan Bakker, Seth Jolly, Jonathan Polk, Jan Rovny, Marco Steenbergen, M. Vachudova","doi":"10.1177/14651165241237136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241237136","url":null,"abstract":"Support for Ukraine against Russian aggression has been strong across Europe, but it is far from uniform. An expert survey of the positions taken by political parties in 29 countries conducted mid-2023 reveals that 97 of 269 parties reject one or more of the following: providing weapons, hosting refugees, supporting Ukraine's path to European Union membership, or accepting higher energy costs. Where the perceived threat from Russia is most severe, we find the greatest levels of support for Ukraine. However, ideology appears to be far more influential. The level of a party's populist rhetoric and its European Union skepticism explain the bulk of variation in support for Ukraine despite our finding that many strongly populist and European Union-skeptical parties take moderate pro-Ukraine positions when in government.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":"30 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-15DOI: 10.1177/14651165241237611
Enrique García-Viñuela, Nicolas Motz, Pedro Riera
This article empirically investigates the impact of globalization on voting behavior. Specifically, combining individual-level data from the first nine waves of the European Social Survey, party-level information from the Comparative Manifesto Project, and country-level data from Eurostat, we study the individual determinants of the vote for trade protectionist parties. Our findings show, firstly, that protectionist parties mainly receive electoral support from less-educated voters, unemployed individuals, and members of labor unions. Secondly, we test the compensation principle using a macro measure of a country's compensation potential and find, contrary to expectations, no significant evidence that a greater potential to mitigate the labor market adjustment costs resulting from economic openness deters the propensity to vote for protectionist parties in national elections.
{"title":"Voting for trade protectionist parties: Evidence from nine waves of the European Social Survey","authors":"Enrique García-Viñuela, Nicolas Motz, Pedro Riera","doi":"10.1177/14651165241237611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241237611","url":null,"abstract":"This article empirically investigates the impact of globalization on voting behavior. Specifically, combining individual-level data from the first nine waves of the European Social Survey, party-level information from the Comparative Manifesto Project, and country-level data from Eurostat, we study the individual determinants of the vote for trade protectionist parties. Our findings show, firstly, that protectionist parties mainly receive electoral support from less-educated voters, unemployed individuals, and members of labor unions. Secondly, we test the compensation principle using a macro measure of a country's compensation potential and find, contrary to expectations, no significant evidence that a greater potential to mitigate the labor market adjustment costs resulting from economic openness deters the propensity to vote for protectionist parties in national elections.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":"16 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140237342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-15DOI: 10.1177/14651165241234483
Nicola Nones
Credit and debt are more than just material exchanges within a market economy, they are also social constructs embedded in moral judgments about the character of the agents involved. During the recent European Sovereign Bond crisis, some commentators noted how a similarly loaded moral media discourse juxtaposed “virtuous” Northern European countries on the one side, and “spendthrift, lazy” Southern European ones on the other side. In this article, I provide a quantitative large-N empirical assessment of this phenomenon. I employ a dictionary-based approach inspired by research in social psychology to measure moral content. Upon analyzing more than 14,000 articles published in the Anglo-American and German financial press between 2004 and 2019, I show the extent to which Greece was described in negative moral language. After the initial “shock” in the fall of 2009, the average moral tone turns negative, and more so in the German financial press relative to its Anglo-American counterpart. Moreover, by most measures, it never completely reverts to pre-crisis levels, thus suggesting how “sticky” economic narratives can become. Against the original expectations, though, there is no evidence that the financial press framed the last and most acute phase of the Greek crisis in 2015 in increasingly moral terms.
{"title":"The Greek crisis as a “morality tale”? An empirical assessment","authors":"Nicola Nones","doi":"10.1177/14651165241234483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241234483","url":null,"abstract":"Credit and debt are more than just material exchanges within a market economy, they are also social constructs embedded in moral judgments about the character of the agents involved. During the recent European Sovereign Bond crisis, some commentators noted how a similarly loaded moral media discourse juxtaposed “virtuous” Northern European countries on the one side, and “spendthrift, lazy” Southern European ones on the other side. In this article, I provide a quantitative large-N empirical assessment of this phenomenon. I employ a dictionary-based approach inspired by research in social psychology to measure moral content. Upon analyzing more than 14,000 articles published in the Anglo-American and German financial press between 2004 and 2019, I show the extent to which Greece was described in negative moral language. After the initial “shock” in the fall of 2009, the average moral tone turns negative, and more so in the German financial press relative to its Anglo-American counterpart. Moreover, by most measures, it never completely reverts to pre-crisis levels, thus suggesting how “sticky” economic narratives can become. Against the original expectations, though, there is no evidence that the financial press framed the last and most acute phase of the Greek crisis in 2015 in increasingly moral terms.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":"8 29","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140237374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-11DOI: 10.1177/14651165241234150
Thomas Laloux
Informal negotiations have become the norm in the European Union legislative process. Yet, researchers are divided over the effects of this change on the European Commission's ability to defend the content of its proposals from modifications by the co-legislators. This article addresses this puzzle by using a fine-grained measure of whether informal negotiations took place which includes trivial agreements, namely legislation adopted in first reading because the co-legislators agree on the content, as a specific category. The results suggest that informal negotiations do not lead to more changes to the Commission's proposals than the formal process. This calls for a better consideration of trivial agreements in studies of the European Union legislative process.
{"title":"The effect of trilogues on the European Commission's success in legislative negotiations: A reappraisal","authors":"Thomas Laloux","doi":"10.1177/14651165241234150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241234150","url":null,"abstract":"Informal negotiations have become the norm in the European Union legislative process. Yet, researchers are divided over the effects of this change on the European Commission's ability to defend the content of its proposals from modifications by the co-legislators. This article addresses this puzzle by using a fine-grained measure of whether informal negotiations took place which includes trivial agreements, namely legislation adopted in first reading because the co-legislators agree on the content, as a specific category. The results suggest that informal negotiations do not lead to more changes to the Commission's proposals than the formal process. This calls for a better consideration of trivial agreements in studies of the European Union legislative process.","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":"60 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140252186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1177/14651165241229137
{"title":"EUP Referees 1st April 2022– 31st December 2023","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/14651165241229137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165241229137","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":505735,"journal":{"name":"European Union Politics","volume":" October","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140092696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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