Pub Date : 2024-07-26DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad67f4
Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo, Julia F. Lockwood, Robert J. H. Dunn, L. Minola, Enric Aguilar, C. Azorín-Molina
Extreme stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) events can influence winter tropospheric circulation for up to 60 days. Their impacts on air temperature have been extensively studied recently. However, there is a research gap in their effects on wind speeds and its extremes. This study aims to evaluate, for the first time, the impacts of such extreme SPV events on observed and modelled near-surface wind gusts across Europe. We have analysed wind gust data coming from: station-based observations (for the Iberian Peninsula and Scandinavia), the ERA5 reanalysis and the SEAS5 and GloSea6 seasonal forecasting systems. We assess their similarities in reproducing 4 parameters of their corresponding distributions: median, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. For all these datasets, the results indicate that extreme positive SPV events are followed by negative wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and positive in Northern Europe. Whereas, negative SPV events (such as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) have positive wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and negative in the north. A central region shows negligible wind gust anomalies in both cases. This highlights the ability of SPV as a predictor for short-medium-term forecasting of extreme wind events, which would have direct applications to many socioeconomic and environmental issues such as the estimation of wind power generation.
{"title":"Effects of extreme stratospheric polar vortex events on near-surface wind gusts across Europe","authors":"Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo, Julia F. Lockwood, Robert J. H. Dunn, L. Minola, Enric Aguilar, C. Azorín-Molina","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad67f4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad67f4","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Extreme stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) events can influence winter tropospheric circulation for up to 60 days. Their impacts on air temperature have been extensively studied recently. However, there is a research gap in their effects on wind speeds and its extremes. This study aims to evaluate, for the first time, the impacts of such extreme SPV events on observed and modelled near-surface wind gusts across Europe. We have analysed wind gust data coming from: station-based observations (for the Iberian Peninsula and Scandinavia), the ERA5 reanalysis and the SEAS5 and GloSea6 seasonal forecasting systems. We assess their similarities in reproducing 4 parameters of their corresponding distributions: median, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. For all these datasets, the results indicate that extreme positive SPV events are followed by negative wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and positive in Northern Europe. Whereas, negative SPV events (such as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) have positive wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and negative in the north. A central region shows negligible wind gust anomalies in both cases. This highlights the ability of SPV as a predictor for short-medium-term forecasting of extreme wind events, which would have direct applications to many socioeconomic and environmental issues such as the estimation of wind power generation.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141799637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad677d
Zhiyuan Lu, Lu Dong, F. Song, Bo Wu, Shuyan Wu, Chunzai Wang
The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) often exists during the mature and decaying phases of El Niño, significantly affecting the East Asian summer monsoon. Previous studies have revealed the importance of the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans in generating and maintaining the WNPAC. However, a quantitative comparison of the contributions from these three oceans is still lacking. This study uses pacemaker experiments with a state-of-the-art model to quantify the relative contributions of the three tropical oceans to the interannual WNPAC variability. We find that the Pacific accounts for over 50% of the interannual variance in boreal winter and the following spring, while the roles of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans become more pronounced in spring. In summer, all three oceans contribute significantly and equally. The Indian Ocean SST is influenced by remote forcing from the Pacific Ocean, while the Atlantic Ocean operates more independently, with no evident effect from other oceans.
{"title":"Quantifying relative contributions of three tropical oceans to the Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone","authors":"Zhiyuan Lu, Lu Dong, F. Song, Bo Wu, Shuyan Wu, Chunzai Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad677d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad677d","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) often exists during the mature and decaying phases of El Niño, significantly affecting the East Asian summer monsoon. Previous studies have revealed the importance of the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans in generating and maintaining the WNPAC. However, a quantitative comparison of the contributions from these three oceans is still lacking. This study uses pacemaker experiments with a state-of-the-art model to quantify the relative contributions of the three tropical oceans to the interannual WNPAC variability. We find that the Pacific accounts for over 50% of the interannual variance in boreal winter and the following spring, while the roles of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans become more pronounced in spring. In summer, all three oceans contribute significantly and equally. The Indian Ocean SST is influenced by remote forcing from the Pacific Ocean, while the Atlantic Ocean operates more independently, with no evident effect from other oceans.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141804110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6781
Jan Freihardt, Mark T. Buntaine, Thomas Bernauer
Policy makers worldwide face tough choices over how to prioritize public funding for adaptation to climate change. One particularly difficult choice is whether to opt for policies that promote relocation away from flood risks or infrastructure investments that protect against flooding. Local communities commonly prefer protective infrastructure, but it is less obvious that the general public will support this approach due to the growing costs. We study public opinion on these adaptation approaches using a choice experiment with nationally representative samples in the United States and Germany (n = 2,400 each). We asked participants to prioritize federal funding between two hypothetical, equally sized communities differing in their adaptation strategy, flood frequency, lives and economic assets at risk, economic vitality, geographic distance, and political orientation. In both countries, we find surprisingly strong support for protective infrastructure over relocation policies among the general public, even under conditions where relocation could be an attractive alternative for addressing the growing costs of protective infrastructure and rebuilding efforts.
{"title":"Choosing to protect: Public support for flood defense over relocation in climate change adaptation","authors":"Jan Freihardt, Mark T. Buntaine, Thomas Bernauer","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6781","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Policy makers worldwide face tough choices over how to prioritize public funding for adaptation to climate change. One particularly difficult choice is whether to opt for policies that promote relocation away from flood risks or infrastructure investments that protect against flooding. Local communities commonly prefer protective infrastructure, but it is less obvious that the general public will support this approach due to the growing costs. We study public opinion on these adaptation approaches using a choice experiment with nationally representative samples in the United States and Germany (n = 2,400 each). We asked participants to prioritize federal funding between two hypothetical, equally sized communities differing in their adaptation strategy, flood frequency, lives and economic assets at risk, economic vitality, geographic distance, and political orientation. In both countries, we find surprisingly strong support for protective infrastructure over relocation policies among the general public, even under conditions where relocation could be an attractive alternative for addressing the growing costs of protective infrastructure and rebuilding efforts.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141804657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6782
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Cuijuan Sui, Bo Sun
This study investigates the long-term variability of the relationship between the El Niño South/Oscillation (ENSO) and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD), and their connection to multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (MDV-SST). Using a century’s worth of SST and atmospheric data and the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the study found significant interdecadal variability in the correlation between the Niño3.4 index and the SASD index. This variability is closely linked to the North Atlantic MDV-SST, often interpreted as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is demonstrated by significant ENSO-SASD correlations during warm (positive) phases of MDV-SST (1930-1960 and 2001-2020) and insignificant correlations during cold (negative) phases (1900-1929 and 1961-2000). Through a Gill-type response, MDV-SST excites Rossby wave over the tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing surface wind, SST, convective activities and upper-level zonal wind over the Pacific Ocean. During warm MDV-SST phases, the more eastward positioned Rossby wave source, triggered by SST and precipitation anomalies over the South Pacific Ocean, along with a stronger, more northward subtropical jet stream, propagates the wavetrain more eastwards into the South Atlantic Ocean, thereby strengthening the SST anomalies in the SASD. Conversely, during the cold MDV-SST phases, the more westward-positioned ENSO-related Rossby wave source and a stronger mid-latitude jet stream guide the wavetrain southeastwards into the southeastern Pacific Ocean, exerting less influence on the SST anomalies in the SASD. The Ekman pumping caused by anomalous surface pressure and the associated surface wind field as well as surface turbulent heat flux also affect the SST anomalies in the SASD and the ENSO-SASD relation.
{"title":"Multidecadal variations in North Atlantic SSTs modulate the relationship between ENSO and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole since 1900","authors":"Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Cuijuan Sui, Bo Sun","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6782","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study investigates the long-term variability of the relationship between the El Niño South/Oscillation (ENSO) and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD), and their connection to multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (MDV-SST). Using a century’s worth of SST and atmospheric data and the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the study found significant interdecadal variability in the correlation between the Niño3.4 index and the SASD index. This variability is closely linked to the North Atlantic MDV-SST, often interpreted as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is demonstrated by significant ENSO-SASD correlations during warm (positive) phases of MDV-SST (1930-1960 and 2001-2020) and insignificant correlations during cold (negative) phases (1900-1929 and 1961-2000). Through a Gill-type response, MDV-SST excites Rossby wave over the tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing surface wind, SST, convective activities and upper-level zonal wind over the Pacific Ocean. During warm MDV-SST phases, the more eastward positioned Rossby wave source, triggered by SST and precipitation anomalies over the South Pacific Ocean, along with a stronger, more northward subtropical jet stream, propagates the wavetrain more eastwards into the South Atlantic Ocean, thereby strengthening the SST anomalies in the SASD. Conversely, during the cold MDV-SST phases, the more westward-positioned ENSO-related Rossby wave source and a stronger mid-latitude jet stream guide the wavetrain southeastwards into the southeastern Pacific Ocean, exerting less influence on the SST anomalies in the SASD. The Ekman pumping caused by anomalous surface pressure and the associated surface wind field as well as surface turbulent heat flux also affect the SST anomalies in the SASD and the ENSO-SASD relation.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141802261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5191
Vincent Gauci
{"title":"Forests and methane: looking beyond carbon for nature-based climate solutions","authors":"Vincent Gauci","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5191","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141804007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6780
Lin Wang, Zhihao Wang, Jie Cao, Yimin Liu, Dongxiao Wang, YT Leung
The land–sea thermal contrast is known to have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. We investigated the influence of the thermal contrast between the Arabian Sea and the Iranian Plateau on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. When the apparent heat over the Arabian Sea (Iranian Plateau) is higher (lower) than normal, summer rainfall is abundant over the mid- and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Japan with the adjacent maritime regions. By contrast, there is lower rainfall in North China and the coastal regions of South China. We attribute this phenomenon to the propagation of mid-latitude Rossby waves, which play a crucial role in regulating the atmospheric circulations on East Asia and the Northwest Pacific. Significant anomalies in the transport of water vapor were seen in our statistical analyses and were partly reproduced by the Linear Baroclinic Model and Weather Research and Forecasting model experiments. The anticipated outcomes of this research will help to identify another factor related to the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon, and provide a scientific basis for understanding the distribution and interaction of thermal anomalies on the plateau system and the Indian Ocean.
{"title":"Impact of the thermal contrast between the Arabian Sea and the Iranian Plateau on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon","authors":"Lin Wang, Zhihao Wang, Jie Cao, Yimin Liu, Dongxiao Wang, YT Leung","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6780","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6780","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The land–sea thermal contrast is known to have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. We investigated the influence of the thermal contrast between the Arabian Sea and the Iranian Plateau on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. When the apparent heat over the Arabian Sea (Iranian Plateau) is higher (lower) than normal, summer rainfall is abundant over the mid- and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Japan with the adjacent maritime regions. By contrast, there is lower rainfall in North China and the coastal regions of South China. We attribute this phenomenon to the propagation of mid-latitude Rossby waves, which play a crucial role in regulating the atmospheric circulations on East Asia and the Northwest Pacific. Significant anomalies in the transport of water vapor were seen in our statistical analyses and were partly reproduced by the Linear Baroclinic Model and Weather Research and Forecasting model experiments. The anticipated outcomes of this research will help to identify another factor related to the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon, and provide a scientific basis for understanding the distribution and interaction of thermal anomalies on the plateau system and the Indian Ocean.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141804773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad677c
James N Galloway, Rachel E Michaels, Elizabeth A. Castner, E. Dukes, Jessica Fox, A. Leach
As we face multiple environmental crises (e.g., climate change, nutrient pollution, freshwater scarcity), there is often a disconnect between an entity’s activities and the pollution resulting from that activity. Footprint tools help address this disconnect. Footprint tools are effective in educating people, institutions and communities on how their resource use results in environmental pollution and what we can do to moderate that pollution. These tools connect an entity’s activities with the associated pollution. Footprint tools are also constantly evolving. As we better understand how to best estimate emissions – especially from sources further removed like those from the supply chain – the guidance and methods for calculating footprints is changing and improving. This paper reviews footprint tools for people, institutions and communities, with a focus on nitrogen footprint tools. It also gives examples of how these tools have been applied to achieve pollution reductions. It concludes with an assessment of how nitrogen and multi-element footprint tools fit into the overall topic of environmental management and discusses their benefits and limitations.
{"title":"Footprint tools tiptoeing towards nitrogen sustainability","authors":"James N Galloway, Rachel E Michaels, Elizabeth A. Castner, E. Dukes, Jessica Fox, A. Leach","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad677c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad677c","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 As we face multiple environmental crises (e.g., climate change, nutrient pollution, freshwater scarcity), there is often a disconnect between an entity’s activities and the pollution resulting from that activity. Footprint tools help address this disconnect. Footprint tools are effective in educating people, institutions and communities on how their resource use results in environmental pollution and what we can do to moderate that pollution. These tools connect an entity’s activities with the associated pollution. Footprint tools are also constantly evolving. As we better understand how to best estimate emissions – especially from sources further removed like those from the supply chain – the guidance and methods for calculating footprints is changing and improving. This paper reviews footprint tools for people, institutions and communities, with a focus on nitrogen footprint tools. It also gives examples of how these tools have been applied to achieve pollution reductions. It concludes with an assessment of how nitrogen and multi-element footprint tools fit into the overall topic of environmental management and discusses their benefits and limitations.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141803777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad677f
Andrew D. King, L. Harrington, Ed Hawkins, S. Paik, Ruby Lieber, Seung‐Ki Min, Alexander Borowiak
The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal temperature and precipitation observations and apply a sigma dissimilarity method to demonstrate that large local climate changes may already be identified, particularly in low-latitude regions. The multivariate methodology brings forward the time of emergence by several decades in many areas relative to analysing temperature in isolation. We observed particularly large departures from an early-20th century climate in years when the global warming signal is compounded by an El Niño-influence. The latitudinal dependence in the emergent climate change signal means that lower-income nations have experienced earlier and stronger emergent climate change signals than the wealthiest regions. Analysis based on temperature and precipitation extreme indices finds weaker signals and less evidence of emergence but is hampered by lack of long-running observations in equatorial areas. The framework developed here may be extended to attribution and projections analyses.
{"title":"Emergence of multivariate climate change signals","authors":"Andrew D. King, L. Harrington, Ed Hawkins, S. Paik, Ruby Lieber, Seung‐Ki Min, Alexander Borowiak","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad677f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad677f","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal temperature and precipitation observations and apply a sigma dissimilarity method to demonstrate that large local climate changes may already be identified, particularly in low-latitude regions. The multivariate methodology brings forward the time of emergence by several decades in many areas relative to analysing temperature in isolation. We observed particularly large departures from an early-20th century climate in years when the global warming signal is compounded by an El Niño-influence. The latitudinal dependence in the emergent climate change signal means that lower-income nations have experienced earlier and stronger emergent climate change signals than the wealthiest regions. Analysis based on temperature and precipitation extreme indices finds weaker signals and less evidence of emergence but is hampered by lack of long-running observations in equatorial areas. The framework developed here may be extended to attribution and projections analyses.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141805179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad677b
A. Hastie, J. E. Householder, E. H. Honorio Coronado, C. G. Hidalgo Pizango, Rafael Herrera, O. Lähteenoja, Johan de Jong, R. S. Winton, Gerardo A. Aymard Corredor, José Reyna, Encarni Montoya, Stella Paukku, E. Mitchard, Christine M. Åkesson, Timothy R. Baker, Lydia Cole, C. J. Córdova Oroche, N. Dávila, Jhon del Águila, F. C. Draper, E. Fluet‐Chouinard, Julio Grández, John P. Janovec, David Reyna, Mathias W. Tobler, Dennis Del Castillo Torres, K. Roucoux, Charlotte E Wheeler, Maria Teresa Fernandez Piedade, J. Schöngart, Florian Wittman, Marieke van der Zon, I. Lawson
Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441,025–1,700,000 km2) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2,413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of approximately 251,015 km2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128,671 to 373,359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of open peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.
{"title":"A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia.","authors":"A. Hastie, J. E. Householder, E. H. Honorio Coronado, C. G. Hidalgo Pizango, Rafael Herrera, O. Lähteenoja, Johan de Jong, R. S. Winton, Gerardo A. Aymard Corredor, José Reyna, Encarni Montoya, Stella Paukku, E. Mitchard, Christine M. Åkesson, Timothy R. Baker, Lydia Cole, C. J. Córdova Oroche, N. Dávila, Jhon del Águila, F. C. Draper, E. Fluet‐Chouinard, Julio Grández, John P. Janovec, David Reyna, Mathias W. Tobler, Dennis Del Castillo Torres, K. Roucoux, Charlotte E Wheeler, Maria Teresa Fernandez Piedade, J. Schöngart, Florian Wittman, Marieke van der Zon, I. Lawson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad677b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad677b","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441,025–1,700,000 km2) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2,413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of approximately 251,015 km2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128,671 to 373,359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of open peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141804512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad66e5
Muhammad Shahinur Shahinur Rahman, S. Onodera, Mitsuyo Saito, Takuya Ishida, Kunyang Wang, Takahiro Hosono, Yu Umezawa
This study assessed the effect of increased anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loading on P speciation in coastal sediments in Osaka Bay, an urbanized enclosed bay, and one of Japan's most industrialized regions. The study analyzed Total P (TP) and determined the accumulations of five different P species Exchangeable P (Ex-P), Iron-bound P (Fe-P), Calcium-bound P (Ca-P), Detrital P (Det-P) and Organic P (Org-P)in the sediment using the sequential extraction method. We also estimated the historical P loading into Osaka Bay from major river catchments (the Yodo and Yamato Rivers) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. This study identified peak P loading values for the Yodo River in 1965 and the Yamato River in 1968, with the Yodo River being the primary anthropogenic source of P inflow for Osaka Bay. The concentration of TP ranges from 290.5 to 353.1 mg/Kg respectively, and the order of concentrations of the different P species is Org-P > Det-P > Ca-P > Fe-P > Ex-P. The results indicate a positive relationship between total P loading and Ca-P during the rapid growth period. We examined two potential mechanisms (adsorption-precipitation process and sink switching) for Ca-P formation and hypothesized that the adsorption-precipitation process is the dominant process, indicating that high anthropogenic P loading causes the accumulation of immobile Ca-P species in coastal sediments and serves as a permanent sink for P, as well as for water quality restoration. This result also suggests the possibility of reconstructing historical human-induced P loadings based on Ca-P in coastal sediments.
大阪湾是一个城市化的封闭海湾，也是日本工业化程度最高的地区之一，这项研究评估了人为磷（P）负荷增加对大阪湾沿岸沉积物中磷的种类的影响。该研究分析了总磷（TP），并采用顺序提取法测定了沉积物中五种不同磷物种的累积量：可交换磷（Ex-P）、铁结合磷（Fe-P）、钙结合磷（Ca-P）、碎屑磷（Det-P）和有机磷（Org-P）。我们还使用土壤和水评估工具估算了主要河流流域（淀川和大和川）历史上排入大阪湾的 P 负荷。这项研究确定了 1965 年淀川和 1968 年大和川的 P 负荷峰值，淀川是大阪湾 P 流入的主要人为来源。总磷酸盐的浓度范围分别为 290.5 至 353.1 毫克/千克，不同磷酸盐种类的浓度顺序为 Org-P > Det-P > Ca-P > Fe-P > Ex-P。结果表明，在快速生长期，总磷负荷与 Ca-P 之间呈正相关。我们研究了 Ca-P 形成的两种潜在机制（吸附-沉淀过程和水槽转换），推测吸附-沉淀过 程是最主要的过程。这一结果也为根据沿岸沉积物中的 Ca-P 重建历史上人为 P 负荷提供了可能。
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