Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad661b
Félix Bastit, Miguel Riviere, A. Lobianco, P. Delacote
Storms pose a significant threat to economic activities in the forest sector and introduce non-permanence risks for carbon stocks. Following escalating climate ambitions, understanding and addressing these risks become imperative, complicated by the uncertainties intrinsic to the storm phenomenon and the influence of climate change. This study uses an integrated forest sector model to assess the economic and carbon impacts of storm regimes, emphasizing the importance of uncertainties through Monte-Carlo simulation. From an economic perspective, we unravel complex interplays between the salvage and inventory effects of storms that lead to heterogeneous transfers of economic welfare across agents and space. Non-affected forest owners benefit from inflated prices, while affected owners' recovery hinges on the magnitude of storm damage. From a climate perspective, storms significantly impact the forest sector's carbon sink, with a high risk of falling short on mitigation objectives: 25% of simulations predict a substantial 24% decrease in carbon sequestration under storm regimes. Our findings advocate for (1) conservative reliance on natural carbon sinks in national climate mitigation strategies toward net-zero and (2) tailored risk-sharing insurance mechanisms for forest owners, providing a buffer against economic uncertainties arising from climatic disruptions.
{"title":"Prospective impacts of windstorm risk on carbon sinks and the forestry sector: an integrated assessment with Monte-Carlo simulations","authors":"Félix Bastit, Miguel Riviere, A. Lobianco, P. Delacote","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad661b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad661b","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Storms pose a significant threat to economic activities in the forest sector and introduce non-permanence risks for carbon stocks. Following escalating climate ambitions, understanding and addressing these risks become imperative, complicated by the uncertainties intrinsic to the storm phenomenon and the influence of climate change. This study uses an integrated forest sector model to assess the economic and carbon impacts of storm regimes, emphasizing the importance of uncertainties through Monte-Carlo simulation. From an economic perspective, we unravel complex interplays between the salvage and inventory effects of storms that lead to heterogeneous transfers of economic welfare across agents and space. Non-affected forest owners benefit from inflated prices, while affected owners' recovery hinges on the magnitude of storm damage. From a climate perspective, storms significantly impact the forest sector's carbon sink, with a high risk of falling short on mitigation objectives: 25% of simulations predict a substantial 24% decrease in carbon sequestration under storm regimes. Our findings advocate for (1) conservative reliance on natural carbon sinks in national climate mitigation strategies toward net-zero and (2) tailored risk-sharing insurance mechanisms for forest owners, providing a buffer against economic uncertainties arising from climatic disruptions.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141814836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6620
Meiyi Fan, Yong Wang, Xiaojun She, Xin Liu, Ran Chen, Yulin Gong, Kun Xue, Fangdi Sun, Yao Li
Inland lakes play a crucial role in monitoring global climate change and managing responses to extreme weather events, with lake elevation being critical for assessing their regulatory capacities. However, due to the limited temporal resolution of current altimetry satellites, obtaining high-frequency, high-precision elevation data for water bodies remains challenging. Consequently, most studies utilize elevation-area (E-A) models constructed from historical elevation and area records, integrated with area observations from high-temporal resolution optical satellites to infer precise water levels. Yet, the construction of the E-A model often assumes a uniform water level across the lake, thus overlooking potential segmentation during dry periods. To address this, our study implemented a zone-based approach, utilizing hydrological connectivity principles to ensure that elevation data within E-A models are confined to appropriate zonal regions. This method effectively minimized uncertainties by preventing errors from zonal discrepancies, significantly improving accuracy compared to traditional methods. It reduced root mean square errors (RMSE) by 0.71 to 1.73 m during the dry season, achieving RMSEs of 0.35, 0.64, and 0.37m across three segments. Furthermore, this method ensures water level data are confined to specific zones, preventing the inconsistencies typically caused by averaging data across multiple stations or selecting data from varying elevations. This consistent domain definition reduces extrapolation errors during the model prediction and inversion. Moreover, by synchronizing data expansion with temporal points, the method compensates for time information losses often incurred by relying on multi-year per-centile charts, thereby enabling more precise aquatic boundary delineation than traditional regional boundaries.
{"title":"Enhanced lake elevation mapping using a zone-based method","authors":"Meiyi Fan, Yong Wang, Xiaojun She, Xin Liu, Ran Chen, Yulin Gong, Kun Xue, Fangdi Sun, Yao Li","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6620","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Inland lakes play a crucial role in monitoring global climate change and managing responses to extreme weather events, with lake elevation being critical for assessing their regulatory capacities. However, due to the limited temporal resolution of current altimetry satellites, obtaining high-frequency, high-precision elevation data for water bodies remains challenging. Consequently, most studies utilize elevation-area (E-A) models constructed from historical elevation and area records, integrated with area observations from high-temporal resolution optical satellites to infer precise water levels. Yet, the construction of the E-A model often assumes a uniform water level across the lake, thus overlooking potential segmentation during dry periods. To address this, our study implemented a zone-based approach, utilizing hydrological connectivity principles to ensure that elevation data within E-A models are confined to appropriate zonal regions. This method effectively minimized uncertainties by preventing errors from zonal discrepancies, significantly improving accuracy compared to traditional methods. It reduced root mean square errors (RMSE) by 0.71 to 1.73 m during the dry season, achieving RMSEs of 0.35, 0.64, and 0.37m across three segments. Furthermore, this method ensures water level data are confined to specific zones, preventing the inconsistencies typically caused by averaging data across multiple stations or selecting data from varying elevations. This consistent domain definition reduces extrapolation errors during the model prediction and inversion. Moreover, by synchronizing data expansion with temporal points, the method compensates for time information losses often incurred by relying on multi-year per-centile charts, thereby enabling more precise aquatic boundary delineation than traditional regional boundaries.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141815825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6618
Shuheng Lin, Buwen Dong, Song Yang, Tuantuan Zhang
This study examines the performance of 52 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing the effects of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ISM’s impacts on ENSO show a substantial diversity among the models. While some models simulate the strength of the impacts comparable to observations, others represent much weaker influences. Results indicate that the diversity is highly related to inter-model spread in interannual variability of ISM rainfall among the models. Models with a larger ISM rainfall variability simulate stronger ISM-induced anomalies in precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific during the monsoon season. As a result, these models exhibit larger wind anomalies induced by monsoon on the south flank of the anomalous circulation in the western Pacific, thereby influencing subsequent ENSO evolution more significantly by causing stronger air-sea coupling processes over the tropical Pacific.
本研究考察了耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP6）第 6 阶段 52 个模式在捕捉印度夏季季风（ISM）对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）演变的影响方面的表现。印度夏季季候风对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的影响在各种模式中表现出很大的差异。一些模式模拟的影响强度与观测结果相当，而另一些模式模拟的影响则要弱得多。结果表明，这种多样性与模式间 ISM 降水年际变率的差异有很大关系。ISM 降水变率较大的模式模拟了季风季节北太平洋西部降水和大气环流中 ISM 诱导的较强异常。因此，这些模式在西太平洋异常环流的南侧表现出更大的季风诱导的风异常，从而通过在热带太平洋上空造成更强的海气耦合过程，对随后的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动演变产生更显著的影响。
{"title":"Diverse impacts of the Indian summer monsoon on ENSO among CMIP6 models and its possible causes","authors":"Shuheng Lin, Buwen Dong, Song Yang, Tuantuan Zhang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6618","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study examines the performance of 52 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing the effects of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ISM’s impacts on ENSO show a substantial diversity among the models. While some models simulate the strength of the impacts comparable to observations, others represent much weaker influences. Results indicate that the diversity is highly related to inter-model spread in interannual variability of ISM rainfall among the models. Models with a larger ISM rainfall variability simulate stronger ISM-induced anomalies in precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific during the monsoon season. As a result, these models exhibit larger wind anomalies induced by monsoon on the south flank of the anomalous circulation in the western Pacific, thereby influencing subsequent ENSO evolution more significantly by causing stronger air-sea coupling processes over the tropical Pacific.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141817071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6617
Sarah C. Davis, Finn G. Maynard, David Jenkins, Tess Herman, M. Reza
Waste from the human food system includes a large quantity of nutrients that pose environmental and human health risks. If these nutrients can be captured and repurposed, they could potentially offset synthetic fertilizer demands. This study reviews several technologies - including anaerobic digestion, hydrothermal carbonization, and composting - that can be used to process wastes from the human food system. This study also assesses the quantity of nutrient resources that are available from wastes, including food waste, biosolids, manure, and yard waste. Three geographic scales were analyzed. At a national level in the United States, up to 27% of nitrogen and 32% of phosphorus demands for agriculture could be met with wastes from the human food system, primarily from food waste and biosolids. Some rural localities have a greater potential for circular economies of nutrients in the food system, with the potential to meet 100% of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer demands with waste nutrients, as in the case of Athens County, Ohio. Benefits of offsetting synthetic fertilizer use with waste nutrients include reduced greenhouse gas emissions, with up to 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per unit of nitrogen fertilizer produced with hydrothermal carbonization.
{"title":"Potential for improving nutrient use efficiencies of human food systems with a circular economy of organic wastes and fertilizer","authors":"Sarah C. Davis, Finn G. Maynard, David Jenkins, Tess Herman, M. Reza","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6617","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Waste from the human food system includes a large quantity of nutrients that pose environmental and human health risks. If these nutrients can be captured and repurposed, they could potentially offset synthetic fertilizer demands. This study reviews several technologies - including anaerobic digestion, hydrothermal carbonization, and composting - that can be used to process wastes from the human food system. This study also assesses the quantity of nutrient resources that are available from wastes, including food waste, biosolids, manure, and yard waste. Three geographic scales were analyzed. At a national level in the United States, up to 27% of nitrogen and 32% of phosphorus demands for agriculture could be met with wastes from the human food system, primarily from food waste and biosolids. Some rural localities have a greater potential for circular economies of nutrients in the food system, with the potential to meet 100% of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer demands with waste nutrients, as in the case of Athens County, Ohio. Benefits of offsetting synthetic fertilizer use with waste nutrients include reduced greenhouse gas emissions, with up to 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per unit of nitrogen fertilizer produced with hydrothermal carbonization.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141816062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad661e
Pu Yang, Sam Fankhauser, Stephen M Smith, Ingrid Sundvor, Stephanie Hirmer, Injy Johnstone, Joseph Stemmler
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is the essential “net” in net zero. However, a thriving CDR industry will not come into being without government intervention. As governments start to devise CDR support policies, this paper solicits the views of market participants in two of the most prominent CDR methods: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). We survey 47 BECCS and DACCS project developers and financiers active in Europe, conducting in-depth interviews with 27 of them to identify their key challenges and preferred policy interventions to address them. We find that participants prefer compliance markets, such as links to emissions trading systems, to generate demand but seek government support to cushion early market risks. They acknowledge the need for stringent monitoring and regulation to ensure environmental integrity. Bearing industry expectations in mind, policymakers face five key challenges in developing CDR: reaching scale, striking a balance with emissions cuts, safeguarding integrity, ensuring fairness and accelerating the speed of deployment.
{"title":"Policy support for BECCS and DACCS in Europe: The view of market participants","authors":"Pu Yang, Sam Fankhauser, Stephen M Smith, Ingrid Sundvor, Stephanie Hirmer, Injy Johnstone, Joseph Stemmler","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad661e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad661e","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is the essential “net” in net zero. However, a thriving CDR industry will not come into being without government intervention. As governments start to devise CDR support policies, this paper solicits the views of market participants in two of the most prominent CDR methods: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). We survey 47 BECCS and DACCS project developers and financiers active in Europe, conducting in-depth interviews with 27 of them to identify their key challenges and preferred policy interventions to address them. We find that participants prefer compliance markets, such as links to emissions trading systems, to generate demand but seek government support to cushion early market risks. They acknowledge the need for stringent monitoring and regulation to ensure environmental integrity. Bearing industry expectations in mind, policymakers face five key challenges in developing CDR: reaching scale, striking a balance with emissions cuts, safeguarding integrity, ensuring fairness and accelerating the speed of deployment.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141817580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad661f
Nan Yang, Chong Wang, Xiaofeng Li
Precipitation forecasting is crucial for warning systems and disaster management. This study focuses on deep learning-based methods and categorizes them into three categories: Recurrent Neural Network (RNN-RNN-RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN-CNN-CNN), and CNN-RNN-CNN methods. Then, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of typical methods in these three categories using the SEVIR precipitation dataset. The results show that RNN-RNN-RNN suffers from instability in long-term forecasts due to error accumulation, CNN-CNN-CNN struggles to capture temporal signals but produces relatively stable forecasts, and CNN-RNN-CNN significantly increases model complexity and inherits the drawbacks of RNN, leading to worse forecasts. Here, we propose an advanced lightweight precipitation forecasting model (ALPF) based on CNN. Experimental results demonstrate that ALPF can effectively forecast spatial-temporal features, maintaining CNN's feature extraction capabilities while avoiding error accumulation in RNN's propagation. ALPF achieves long-term stable precipitation forecasts and can better capture large precipitation amounts.
{"title":"Evaluation of precipitation forecasting methods and an advanced lightweight model","authors":"Nan Yang, Chong Wang, Xiaofeng Li","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad661f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad661f","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Precipitation forecasting is crucial for warning systems and disaster management. This study focuses on deep learning-based methods and categorizes them into three categories: Recurrent Neural Network (RNN-RNN-RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN-CNN-CNN), and CNN-RNN-CNN methods. Then, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of typical methods in these three categories using the SEVIR precipitation dataset. The results show that RNN-RNN-RNN suffers from instability in long-term forecasts due to error accumulation, CNN-CNN-CNN struggles to capture temporal signals but produces relatively stable forecasts, and CNN-RNN-CNN significantly increases model complexity and inherits the drawbacks of RNN, leading to worse forecasts. Here, we propose an advanced lightweight precipitation forecasting model (ALPF) based on CNN. Experimental results demonstrate that ALPF can effectively forecast spatial-temporal features, maintaining CNN's feature extraction capabilities while avoiding error accumulation in RNN's propagation. ALPF achieves long-term stable precipitation forecasts and can better capture large precipitation amounts.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141815030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-19DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad657f
Lina Song, Yuanlong Li, June-Yi Lee, Fan Wang, Jianing Wang
Quantifying spatiotemporal characteristics of intraseasonal variability (ISV) of upper ocean (100 m) zonal currents (U) in the equatorial western Pacific remains difficult due to a lack of direct observations. Here we investigate the characteristics by analyzing five subsurface mooring data at 140°-142°E, 1.7°S-4.7°N, from January 2014 to April 2021. Our analysis revealed that U ISV has an amplitude exceeding 40 cm s-1, comparable to their long-term mean, and pronounced seasonality, with a peaking period in boreal winter-spring (October-April) and a weakening period in summer-autumn (May-September). U ISV intensity in the south of the equator is 50% stronger than that in the north. Analysis of satellite/reanalysis data and model experiments suggests that atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) accounts for 80% of the U ISV seasonality through wind forcing, while the oceanic internal process contributes 20% through nonlinear baroclinic instability. The consistent variation in mixed layer depth indicates the potential roles of oceanic ISVs in seasonal phase locking of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Our results highlight the significance of direct observations for better understanding and estimating ISVs of ocean circulation.
{"title":"Seasonality of the intraseasonal variability in the upper equatorial western Pacific Ocean currents","authors":"Lina Song, Yuanlong Li, June-Yi Lee, Fan Wang, Jianing Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad657f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad657f","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Quantifying spatiotemporal characteristics of intraseasonal variability (ISV) of upper ocean (100 m) zonal currents (U) in the equatorial western Pacific remains difficult due to a lack of direct observations. Here we investigate the characteristics by analyzing five subsurface mooring data at 140°-142°E, 1.7°S-4.7°N, from January 2014 to April 2021. Our analysis revealed that U ISV has an amplitude exceeding 40 cm s-1, comparable to their long-term mean, and pronounced seasonality, with a peaking period in boreal winter-spring (October-April) and a weakening period in summer-autumn (May-September). U ISV intensity in the south of the equator is 50% stronger than that in the north. Analysis of satellite/reanalysis data and model experiments suggests that atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) accounts for 80% of the U ISV seasonality through wind forcing, while the oceanic internal process contributes 20% through nonlinear baroclinic instability. The consistent variation in mixed layer depth indicates the potential roles of oceanic ISVs in seasonal phase locking of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Our results highlight the significance of direct observations for better understanding and estimating ISVs of ocean circulation.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141823486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-19DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad657d
Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo, Steven Chouto, J. P. Nghonda, A. Diedhiou, B. Kravitz, Z. Yepdo, Flore K. Djuidje, B. Abiodun
The economy of Central African countries strongly depends on rain-fed agriculture and hydropower generation. However, most countries in this subregion do not yet have the irrigation technologies that are already applied in many more advanced nations, which further exposes them to the serious risk of severe drought caused by global warming. This study investigates the potential impact of solar radiation modification (SRM) geoengineering on the water availability over the four major river basins that cross most of Central African countries (i.e., Niger Basin, Lake Chad Basin, Cameroon Atlantic Basin and Congo Basin). For this purpose a potential water availability index was computed based on an ensemble-mean simulations carried out in the framework of Phase 6 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP6), considering two SRM simulation experiments: the stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection (G6sulfur) and the global solar dimming (G6solar). The climate change simulation results in a robust decreases by up to 60% in water availability, most pronounced over the Cameroon Atlantic Basin under the hight radiative forcing scenario. Therefore, in a business-as-usual world, the reduction in water availability combined with the rapid population growth expected by 2050 in the studied region, could result in a significant water deficit over Central African countries towards the end of the 21st century. This water deficit can affect all activities that depend on water resources, such as water supply, agriculture and hydropower generation. Furthermore, the results also show that SRM methods have the potential to significantly reduce this deficit by increasing water availability (as compared to climate change) by up to 50% over the affected river basins, with a more accentuated increase found in the Cameroon Atlantic Basin when the global solar dimming is applied. These results suggest good possibilities of adaptation for populations living in the geographical areas of these river basins.
{"title":"Projected impact of solar radiation modification geoengineering on water deficit risk over major Central African river basins","authors":"Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo, Steven Chouto, J. P. Nghonda, A. Diedhiou, B. Kravitz, Z. Yepdo, Flore K. Djuidje, B. Abiodun","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad657d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad657d","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The economy of Central African countries strongly depends on rain-fed agriculture and hydropower generation. However, most countries in this subregion do not yet have the irrigation technologies that are already applied in many more advanced nations, which further exposes them to the serious risk of severe drought caused by global warming. This study investigates the potential impact of solar radiation modification (SRM) geoengineering on the water availability over the four major river basins that cross most of Central African countries (i.e., Niger Basin, Lake Chad Basin, Cameroon Atlantic Basin and Congo Basin). For this purpose a potential water availability index was computed based on an ensemble-mean simulations carried out in the framework of Phase 6 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP6), considering two SRM simulation experiments: the stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection (G6sulfur) and the global solar dimming (G6solar). The climate change simulation results in a robust decreases by up to 60% in water availability, most pronounced over the Cameroon Atlantic Basin under the hight radiative forcing scenario. Therefore, in a business-as-usual world, the reduction in water availability combined with the rapid population growth expected by 2050 in the studied region, could result in a significant water deficit over Central African countries towards the end of the 21st century. This water deficit can affect all activities that depend on water resources, such as water supply, agriculture and hydropower generation. Furthermore, the results also show that SRM methods have the potential to significantly reduce this deficit by increasing water availability (as compared to climate change) by up to 50% over the affected river basins, with a more accentuated increase found in the Cameroon Atlantic Basin when the global solar dimming is applied. These results suggest good possibilities of adaptation for populations living in the geographical areas of these river basins.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141821621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-19DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad657e
Ryan M. Bright, N. Cattaneo, C. Antón-Fernández, Stephanie Eisner, Rasmus Astrup
Forest restoration and improved forest management are seen as options for enhancing terrestrial carbon dioxide removal in many regions, yet concerns surrounding their potentially adverse surface albedo impacts exist, particularly in high latitude and altitude regions. Such concerns are often based on generalized conclusions rooted in analyses carried out over broad spatial extents at coarse resolutions. The impacts of surface albedo change are highly sensitive to local environmental factors governing both the surface albedo and solar radiation budgets, and many previous assessments either do not sufficiently deal with such sensitivities or do not qualify the conditions under which they are relevant. Using the country of Norway with its diverse gradients in topography and climate as an ideal case study region, we seek clarity to the question of whether surface albedo is relevant to consider in forestry planning, and if so, what are the important factors determining it. We find that the adverse impact of a forest’s albedo outweighs its carbon cycle benefit on only ~ 4% of Norway’s total forested area, reducing to < ~ 1% when future climate changes are considered. Our findings challenge the common perception that surface albedo concerns are highly relevant to forestry planning at high latitudes and emphasize the importance of carrying out albedo impact assessments at spatial scales aligning with those of local forestry planning.
{"title":"Relevance of surface albedo to forestry policy in high latitude and altitude regions may be overvalued","authors":"Ryan M. Bright, N. Cattaneo, C. Antón-Fernández, Stephanie Eisner, Rasmus Astrup","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad657e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad657e","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Forest restoration and improved forest management are seen as options for enhancing terrestrial carbon dioxide removal in many regions, yet concerns surrounding their potentially adverse surface albedo impacts exist, particularly in high latitude and altitude regions. Such concerns are often based on generalized conclusions rooted in analyses carried out over broad spatial extents at coarse resolutions. The impacts of surface albedo change are highly sensitive to local environmental factors governing both the surface albedo and solar radiation budgets, and many previous assessments either do not sufficiently deal with such sensitivities or do not qualify the conditions under which they are relevant. Using the country of Norway with its diverse gradients in topography and climate as an ideal case study region, we seek clarity to the question of whether surface albedo is relevant to consider in forestry planning, and if so, what are the important factors determining it. We find that the adverse impact of a forest’s albedo outweighs its carbon cycle benefit on only ~ 4% of Norway’s total forested area, reducing to < ~ 1% when future climate changes are considered. Our findings challenge the common perception that surface albedo concerns are highly relevant to forestry planning at high latitudes and emphasize the importance of carrying out albedo impact assessments at spatial scales aligning with those of local forestry planning.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141821131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-18DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad64ee
Ling Wang, Shuangmei Ma
During January-May 2023, an extreme prolonged drought dominates Southwest China, which caused a severely damage of local water availability, power supply and productivity in Yunnan Province. It is noted that the initiation and maintenance of this extreme drought was concurrent with phase transition from La Niña into El Niño. We demonstrate that this severe drought event was partly attributed to the relay influences of La Niña and El Niño evolution. The anomalous enhanced cyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) associated with mature La Niña triggered anomalous downwards motion and reduced moisture supply to Southwest China, contributing to drought initiation. As the La Niña decay, the anomalous WNP cyclone gradually weakened in late winter and early spring. Moreover, the eastwards shifting of anomalous WNP cyclone intensified by the El Niño developing and maintained anomalous northerlies in this region. The preceding winter La Niña favored the prolonged MJO activities over the tropical western Pacific in late spring, which re-intensified anomalous WNP cyclone and aggravated drought in Yunnan. The local extreme droughts are a footprint over Southeast Asia, showing a few months predictability as a possible response to the transition from the phase of La Niña to El Niño. This is supported by the similar extreme droughts in history during phase transition from La Niña into El Niño.
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