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Evaluation of the Coupling Coordination and Sustainable Development of Water–Energy–Land–Food System on a 40-Year Scale: A Case Study of Hebei, China 水-能源-土地-粮食系统 40 年耦合协调与可持续发展评价:中国河北案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.3390/land13071089
Huanyu Chang, Bing Zhang, Jingyan Han, Yong Zhao, Yongqiang Cao, Jiaqi Yao, Linrui Shi
Driven by economic expansion, urbanization, and population growth, the world is witnessing an escalating demand for water, energy, land, and food, posing substantial threats to the sustainable development of societies and economies. Given the intricate interdependencies inherent within the water–energy–land–food (WELF) system, it is imperative to conduct comprehensive assessments of the coupling coordination and sustainable development of the WELF system over long time scales and diverse characteristic dimensions. This study selects Hebei province, China, as the research region, constructing a comprehensive indicator system spanning from 1980 to 2020 using three dimensions: reliability (Rel), robustness (Rob), and equilibrium (Equ). The degree of coupling coordination (DCC) and sustainable development index (SDI) were developed using the comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree model. Additionally, the obstacle degree model and gray relational degree model were employed to assess the indicators that hinder or promote the SDI. The results indicate that: (1) The DCC (range of 0–1, bigger the better) of the WELF system increased from 0.65 to 0.75 between 1980 and 1998, then fluctuated between 0.75 and 0.69, stabilizing at a moderate level of coordinated development after 2015. (2) For the WELF system in Hebei, as Rel increased, Rob decreased, and Equ increased; similarly, as Rob increased, Equ also increased. (3) The SDI (range of 0–1, bigger the better) rose from 0.45 in 1980, initially increased, then decreased, and eventually stabilized. After 2014, it experienced rapid growth, reaching 0.54 by 2020, indicating an improvement in sustainable development capability. (4) Indicators related to the Equ dimension and the land subsystem were more critical limiting factors for SDI development, while indicators related to the Rel dimension and the food subsystem were more significant contributors to SDI development. These findings offer a scientific foundation and practical insights for Hebei and comparable regions, aiding in the resolution of resource conflicts, optimization of resource allocation, and enhancement of regional sustainable development.
在经济扩张、城市化和人口增长的推动下,世界对水、能源、土地和粮食的需求不断攀升,对社会和经济的可持续发展构成了巨大威胁。鉴于水-能源-土地-粮食(WELF)系统内部错综复杂的相互依存关系,对水-能源-土地-粮食系统在长时间尺度和不同特征维度上的耦合协调和可持续发展进行全面评估势在必行。本研究选取中国河北省作为研究区域,从可靠性(Rel)、稳健性(Rob)和均衡性(Equ)三个维度构建了从 1980 年到 2020 年的综合指标体系。利用综合评价指标和耦合协调度模型,建立了耦合协调度(DCC)和可持续发展指数(SDI)。此外,还采用了障碍度模型和灰色关系度模型来评估阻碍或促进 SDI 的指标。结果表明(1)1980 年至 1998 年间,世界环境基金系统的 DCC(范围为 0-1,越大越好)从 0.65 增加到 0.75,然后在 0.75 至 0.69 之间波动,2015 年后稳定在中等协调发展水平。(2)对于河北的 WELF 系统,随着 Rel 的增加,Rob 减少,Equ 增加;同样,随着 Rob 的增加,Equ 也增加。(3) SDI(范围 0-1,越大越好)从 1980 年的 0.45 开始上升,先上升后下降,最终趋于稳定。2014 年后,SDI 快速增长,到 2020 年达到 0.54,表明可持续发展能力有所提高。(4)与 "Equ "维度和土地子系统相关的指标是 SDI 发展的关键限制因素,而与 "Rel "维度和粮食子系统相关的指标则是 SDI 发展的重要促进因素。这些研究结果为河北及类似地区解决资源冲突、优化资源配置、促进区域可持续发展提供了科学依据和实践启示。
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引用次数: 0
Community Life Circle, Neighbourly Interaction, and Social Cohesion: Does Community Space Use Foster Stronger Communities? 社区生活圈、邻里互动和社会凝聚力:社区空间的使用能促进更强大的社区吗?
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.3390/land13071094
Min Jiang, Jiaqi Hu, Xiaofeng Gao
Neighbourhood social cohesion has emerged as a prominent concern in urban governance worldwide. As the primary domain of residents’ daily activities, the community life circle contributes to neighbourly interaction and social cohesion. This study investigates the role of space use within the community life circle in promoting social cohesion in Chongqing, China. Through an in-depth activity diary survey and structural equation model analysis, we empirically examine the interplay between community space use, neighbourly interaction, and social cohesion. Our findings suggest that the 15 min community life circle plays a crucial role in residents’ daily lives, particularly among senior residents. However, the contribution of community space use to social cohesion is fully mediated by neighbourly interaction. Furthermore, not all patterns of community space use contribute to social cohesion equally; space use engaged with diverse companions on workdays significantly enhances neighbourly interaction and social cohesion. The study enriches the existing literature by deepening our understanding of the role of the community life circle in fostering socially cohesive and sustainable neighbourhoods.
邻里社会凝聚力已成为全球城市治理的一个突出问题。作为居民日常活动的主要场所,社区生活圈有助于邻里互动和社会凝聚。本研究探讨了中国重庆社区生活圈的空间使用在促进社会凝聚力方面的作用。通过深入的活动日记调查和结构方程模型分析,我们对社区空间使用、邻里互动和社会凝聚力之间的相互作用进行了实证研究。我们的研究结果表明,15 分钟社区生活圈在居民日常生活中发挥着至关重要的作用,尤其是在老年居民中。然而,社区空间的使用对社会凝聚力的贡献完全取决于邻里互动。此外,并非所有的社区空间使用模式对社会凝聚力的贡献都是相同的;工作日与不同同伴一起使用空间能显著增强邻里互动和社会凝聚力。这项研究加深了我们对社区生活圈在促进具有社会凝聚力和可持续发展的邻里关系中的作用的理解,从而丰富了现有文献。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Local Government Perceptions of Disaster Risks on Land Resilience Planning Implementation 地方政府对灾害风险的认识对土地抗灾规划实施的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.3390/land13071085
Soyoung Kim, Simon A. Andrew, Edgar Ramirez de la Cruz, Woo-Je Kim, R. Feiock
Local government managers play a critical role in sustainability and climate adaptation planning, and in relation to land-use policy, but little is known about how managers’ hazard risk concerns influence the implementation of resilience policy or how this relationship may vary across different landscapes and types of hazards. Linking managers’ disaster concerns to their planning choices is particularly relevant to resilience planning for adaptation to climate change, since greenhouse gas emissions are global but the harms produced by climate change are local. Moreover, climate adaptation planning encompasses risks from multiple hazards. For a sample of cities in the state of Florida, USA, we report the findings of empirical analysis of the relationships between local government managers’ hazard-specific climate-related disaster concerns and their resilience-planning priorities for four types of hazards: river flooding, sea-level rise, storm surge and hurricane/tornado winds. Drawing on data from a survey of local disaster managers and policy data on the implementation of adaptation-planning actions, the link between managers’ concerns and plan implementation is identified and compared across communities and across types of hazards. The pooled logit regression results reveal that the differences observed among these hazards persist even after controlling for objective risks and relevant community characteristics. We discuss the nature of the differences across four hazards and explore the implications of the findings for the literature on land use and climate adaptation and for the education of local government managers.
地方政府管理者在可持续发展和气候适应规划以及土地利用政策方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但人们对管理者对灾害风险的关注如何影响抗灾政策的实施,以及这种关系在不同地貌和灾害类型下的差异知之甚少。将管理者对灾害的关注与其规划选择联系起来,对于适应气候变化的抗灾规划尤为重要,因为温室气体排放是全球性的,而气候变化造成的危害却是地方性的。此外,气候适应规划还包括来自多种灾害的风险。我们以美国佛罗里达州的一个城市为样本,报告了地方政府管理者对特定灾害的气候相关关注与他们对四种灾害的适应性规划优先级之间关系的实证分析结果,这四种灾害是:河流洪水、海平面上升、风暴潮和飓风/龙卷风。利用对地方灾害管理者的调查数据和关于适应规划行动实施情况的政策数据,确定了管理者关注的问题与规划实施之间的联系,并对不同社区和不同类型的灾害进行了比较。集合对数回归结果显示,即使在控制了客观风险和相关社区特征之后,在这些灾害中观察到的差异依然存在。我们讨论了四种灾害之间差异的性质,并探讨了研究结果对土地利用和气候适应文献以及地方政府管理人员教育的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of Rainstorm Waterlogging Disaster Risk in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas Based on Land Use Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Jiangqiao Town in Shanghai, China 基于土地利用情景模拟的快速城市化地区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估:中国上海江桥镇案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.3390/land13071088
Hui Xu, Junlong Gao, Xinchun Yu, Qianqian Qin, Shiqiang Du, Jiahong Wen
The impact of flooding on cities is becoming increasingly significant in the context of climate change and rapid urbanization. Based on the analysis of the land use changes and rainstorm waterlogging inundation scenarios of Jiangqiao Town from 1980 to 2020, a scenario analysis was conducted to simulate and assess the rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk in 2040 under three land use scenarios (a natural development scenario, Scenario ND; an economic growth scenario, Scenario EG; and an ecological development priority scenario, Scenario EP) and three rainstorm scenarios with return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years. The following results were found: (1) Land use change is a significant factor in the risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster caused by surface runoff and inundation depth change. In particular, the resultant increase in impermeable surfaces such as residential land and industrial land and the decrease in farmland during urbanization would lead to an increase in urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk. (2) Under three rainstorm scenarios, the future land use exposure elements and losses are consistent in terms of spatial distribution; from 10-year to 100-year return periods, they manifest as an expansion from the south to the surroundings, especially to the central region of the study area. The locations at risk are mainly distributed in the central and southern regions of Jiangqiao Town. (3) The economic losses are different in different land use scenarios and rainstorm scenarios. In the context of rainstorm scenarios with return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years, the total losses in land use scenario ND are CNY 560 million, CNY 890 million, and CNY 1.07 billion; those in land use scenario EG are CNY 630 million, CNY 980 million, and CNY 1.19 billion; and those in land use scenario EP are CNY 480 million, CNY 750 million, and CNY 910 million. The total losses of land use EP are the lowest by comparison. So, the influence of land use change on the rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk shows obvious differences among different rainstorm scenarios. This study has important reference value for decision making on land use management and flood disaster risk management in rapidly urbanizing areas.
在气候变化和快速城市化的背景下,洪涝灾害对城市的影响日益显著。在分析江桥镇 1980-2020 年土地利用变化和暴雨内涝淹没情景的基础上,进行了情景分析,模拟评估了 2040 年三种土地利用情景(自然发展情景 ND、经济增长情景 EG 和生态优先发展情景 EP)和三种暴雨情景(重现期分别为 10 年、50 年和 100 年)下的暴雨内涝灾害风险。结果如下:(1) 土地利用变化是地表径流和淹没深度变化导致城市暴雨内涝灾害风险的重要因素。特别是在城市化过程中,居住用地和工业用地等不透水地表的增加以及农田的减少将导致城市暴雨内涝灾害风险的增加。(2)在三种暴雨情景下,未来土地利用暴露要素和损失在空间分布上是一致的,从 10 年一遇到 100 年一遇,都表现为从南部向四周扩展,特别是向研究区中部地区扩展。风险点主要分布在江桥镇的中部和南部地区。(3)不同土地利用情景和暴雨情景下的经济损失不同。在重现期分别为 10 年、50 年和 100 年的暴雨情景下,土地利用 ND 情景下的总损失分别为 5.6 亿元、8.9 亿元和 10.7 亿元;土地利用 EG 情景下的总损失分别为 6.3 亿元、9.8 亿元和 11.9 亿元;土地利用 EP 情景下的总损失分别为 4.8 亿元、7.5 亿元和 9.1 亿元。相比之下,土地利用 EP 的总损失最低。由此可见,不同暴雨情景下,土地利用变化对暴雨内涝灾害风险的影响存在明显差异。本研究对快速城市化地区的土地利用管理和洪涝灾害风险管理具有重要的决策参考价值。
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引用次数: 0
Land Governance and Fragmentation Patterns of Agricultural Land Use in Southern Romania during 1990–2020 1990-2020 年罗马尼亚南部的土地治理和农业用地分割模式
Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.3390/land13071084
D. Dogaru, A. Petrisor, Claudiu-Valeriu Angearu, Laura Lupu, D. Bălteanu
In Romania, excessive fragmentation of croplands remains persistent in areas of significant agricultural potential as a consequence of combined factors involving both land governance and farms’ characteristics. This paper examines the fragmentation of agricultural land use in the Romanian Plain, focusing on the impact of land policies implemented in Romania during the past three decades. The analysis relies on a survey of local policies that helps to distinguish three phases that marked the evolution of the fragmentation of agricultural land during 1990–2020. Additionally, metrics derived from remote sensing time series further assist in capturing the fragmentation levels during the identified phases and the spatial differences for the analyzed period. The fragmentation levels appear strikingly contrasting between the western part of the Romanian Plain and the Danube alluvial areas; this has been attributed as being the joint result of various land governance components which both enabled and constrained proper utilization of agricultural land, and concurrent factors related to economic and sociodemographic changes. We find excessive fragmentation emerged in plain field areas, triggered by the high overall rates of institutional change. The findings underscore the importance of jointly considering the fragmentation phenomenon in its evolution, intensity and spatial differences for effective land use policy formulation, emphasizing the need for proactive governance to support the efficient use of agricultural resources.
在罗马尼亚,由于涉及土地治理和农场特征的综合因素,在农业潜力巨大的地区,耕地过度分散的现象依然存在。本文研究了罗马尼亚平原地区农业用地使用的碎片化问题,重点关注罗马尼亚在过去三十年间实施的土地政策的影响。分析依赖于一项地方政策调查,该调查有助于区分 1990-2020 年间农用地碎片化演变的三个阶段。此外,从遥感时间序列中得出的度量指标进一步帮助捕捉已确定阶段的碎片化水平以及分析期间的空间差异。罗马尼亚平原西部与多瑙河冲积区的破碎程度形成了鲜明对比;这是各种土地治理因素(既促进又限制了农用土地的合理利用)以及与经济和社会人口变化相关的并发因素共同作用的结果。我们发现,由于制度变革的总体速度较快,平原地区出现了过度分散的现象。研究结果强调了共同考虑碎片化现象的演变、强度和空间差异对于有效制定土地利用政策的重要性,同时强调了积极治理以支持有效利用农业资源的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Using Ecological Footprint Analysis to Evaluate Sustainable Development in Lushan County, China 利用生态足迹分析评估中国芦山县的可持续发展
Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.3390/land13071081
Huihui Yang, Shuiyu Yan, Na An, Qiang Yao
Mountain town ecosystems are fragile and highly susceptible to the impacts of human activities and ecological imbalances. This study aimed to improve the traditional ecological footprint (EF) model by incorporating expanded land functions, localised factors, and temporal continuity. Using Lushan County in Sichuan Province as a case study, we calculated spatial and temporal changes from 2009 to 2022 and evaluated sustainable development through four indicators: ecological pressure, ecological sustainability, ecological occupation, and ecological–economic coordination. The results show that from 2009 to 2022, the per capita ecological carbon footprint in Lushan County decreased by 48%, and the ecological carrying capacity declined by 9%. Despite a more than 73% reduction in the ecological surplus, indicating gradual ecological recovery, Lushan County remains in an ecological deficit state with increasing ecological unsustainability. Only forest land is in an ecological surplus state among the six land use categories, while all other categories are in ecological deficit states. Regarding ecological sustainability assessment, Lushan County’s overall land use is in a strong sustainability state, with the sustainable development index gradually improving. However, ecological–economic coordination remains poor, with a high ecological occupation index and significant ecological pressure, indicating an imbalance between economic development and ecosystem protection. For future sustainable development in mountainous areas, Lushan County should focus on reducing the ecological carbon footprint and enhancing the ecological carrying capacity. These research findings provide valuable insights and methodological references for the sustainable development of mountain towns.
山地城镇生态系统十分脆弱,极易受到人类活动和生态失衡的影响。本研究旨在改进传统的生态足迹(EF)模型,将扩展的土地功能、局部因素和时间连续性纳入其中。我们以四川省芦山县为例,计算了 2009 年至 2022 年的时空变化,并通过生态压力、生态可持续性、生态占用和生态经济协调性四个指标对可持续发展进行了评价。结果表明,从 2009 年到 2022 年,芦山县人均生态碳足迹下降了 48%,生态承载力下降了 9%。尽管生态盈余减少了 73% 以上,表明生态逐渐恢复,但芦山县仍处于生态赤字状态,生态不可持续性不断增强。在六类土地利用中,只有林地处于生态盈余状态,其他类别均处于生态赤字状态。在生态可持续性评价方面,芦山县土地利用总体上处于较强的可持续性状态,可持续发展指数逐步提高。但生态经济协调性仍然较差,生态占用指数较高,生态压力较大,表明经济发展与生态系统保护之间存在失衡。为实现山区未来的可持续发展,芦山县应着力减少生态碳足迹,提高生态承载力。这些研究成果为山区城镇的可持续发展提供了宝贵的启示和方法参考。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the Influence of Policy Guidance and Market-Driven Factors on Farmers’ Behavior Regarding Black Soil Protection 政策引导和市场驱动因素对农民黑土保护行为的影响研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.3390/land13071082
Tianyi Wang, Linghui Liu, Shanlin Huang
Enhancing black soil quality is essential for ensuring national food security and promoting sustainable economic development in Northeast China. This paper utilizes survey data from farmers in the typical black soil region of the Sanjiang Plain to establish a structural equation model. This study explores the theoretical mechanisms and practical logic behind the influence of policy guidance and market-driven factors on farmers’ black soil protection behavior. The research findings are as follows: The effect values of policy guidance and market-driven factors on farmers’ black soil protection behavior are 0.042 and 0.195, respectively, with the influence of market-driven factors being more significant. The linkage effect value between policy guidance and market-driven factors in promoting farmers’ black soil protection behavior is 0.396. There are differences in the influence pathways of policy guidance and market-driven factors on the black soil protection behavior of different types of farmers. Farmers managing dryland and those with smaller-scale operations are more significantly affected by both policy guidance and market-driven factors, with a noticeable linkage effect between the two. However, the issue of degradation in black soil quality remains severe, and the awareness of black soil conservation among farmers still requires reinforcement. Future research should continue to explore the driving mechanisms behind farmers’ behaviors regarding black soil conservation and compare the actual effects and efficacy of various black soil conservation techniques through impact evaluations. This will facilitate the continuous improvement of mechanisms for black soil protection, ensuring the sustainable development of black soil quality, ecology, and biodiversity.
提高黑土质量对保障国家粮食安全和促进东北地区经济可持续发展至关重要。本文利用三江平原典型黑土区农民调查数据,建立了结构方程模型。本研究探讨了政策引导和市场驱动因素对农民黑土保护行为影响的理论机制和实践逻辑。研究结果如下政策引导和市场驱动因素对农户黑土保护行为的影响效应值分别为 0.042 和 0.195,其中市场驱动因素的影响更为显著。政策引导和市场驱动因素对农民黑土保护行为的联动效应值为 0.396。政策引导和市场驱动因素对不同类型农户黑土保护行为的影响途径存在差异。经营旱地的农户和经营规模较小的农户受政策引导和市场驱动因素的影响更为显著,二者之间存在明显的联动效应。然而,黑土质量退化问题依然严重,农民的黑土保护意识仍需加强。今后的研究应继续探索农民黑土保护行为背后的驱动机制,并通过影响评价比较各种黑土保护技术的实际效果和功效。这将促进黑土保护机制的不断完善,确保黑土质量、生态和生物多样性的可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Land Use Carbon Emission Estimation and Simulation of Carbon-Neutral Scenarios Based on System Dynamics in Coastal City: A Case Study of Nantong, China 基于系统动力学的沿海城市土地利用碳排放估算与碳中和情景模拟:中国南通案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.3390/land13071083
Qingyun Xu, Kongqing Li
Land use directly affects the carbon emissions and carbon stock of the ecosystem, and indirectly affects the carbon emissions from anthropogenic activities, which occur more frequently in coastal regions. Taking Nantong City as an example, detailed carbon emission projects were classified and calculated for different land use types by combining land use images of five typical years. Based on the complex relationship between land use carbon emissions and socio-economic factors, the system dynamics model (SD) was used to simulate the land use carbon emissions from 2005 to 2060, and to construct carbon-neutral policy scenarios. Compared with inlands, carbon emissions from land use in Nantong are more pronounced than inland areas, and unique land use types, such as shallows, play an important role as carbon sinks. Total land use carbon emissions show an upward trend from 2005 to 2020 and carbon emissions from construction land dominate. Under the natural development condition, the total net carbon emissions of Nantong are about 4,298,250 tons in 2060, failing to achieve carbon neutrality. The scenario with all four policies adjusted (LO, IO, TP, and PC) has the best emission reductions, peaking at 10,949,010 tons of net carbon emissions in 2029 and reducing them to 1,370,202 tons in 2060, which is the scenario closest to the carbon-neutral target. Overall, this study provides a meaningful conclusion for the study of land use carbon emission characteristics and low-carbon pathways in coastal cities, which can guide the formation of government policies.
土地利用直接影响生态系统的碳排放和碳储量,间接影响人为活动的碳排放,而人为活动在沿海地区发生更为频繁。以南通市为例,结合五个典型年份的土地利用影像,对不同土地利用类型进行了详细的碳排放项目分类和计算。基于土地利用碳排放与社会经济因素之间的复杂关系,利用系统动力学模型(SD)模拟 2005 年至 2060 年的土地利用碳排放,并构建碳中和政策情景。与内陆地区相比,南通的土地利用碳排放更为显著,浅滩等独特的土地利用类型发挥了重要的碳汇作用。2005-2020年,土地利用碳排放总量呈上升趋势,其中建设用地碳排放占主导地位。在自然发展条件下,2060 年南通市碳净排放总量约为 429.825 万吨,未能实现碳中和。四项政策(LO、IO、TP、PC)调整后的情景减排效果最好,2029年净碳排放量达到峰值10,949,010吨,2060年净碳排放量降至1,370,202吨,是最接近碳中和目标的情景。总之,本研究为沿海城市土地利用碳排放特征和低碳路径研究提供了有意义的结论,可指导政府政策的形成。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrological and Urban Analysis of Territories under High Water Stress: Nazas and Aguanaval Rivers, Mexico 高度缺水地区的水文和城市分析:墨西哥纳萨斯河和阿瓜纳瓦尔河
Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.3390/land13071074
Juan José Barrios Avalos, Jordi Franquesa Sánchez
Hydrological region 36 in Mexico (RH36) faces significant water stress and tends towards agricultural mono-production. Following the regulation of its main rivers, the Nazas and Aguanaval, through dam construction and canalization, the flow of water in the lower basin of the Nazas River has become negligible, which has altered the riverfronts of major cities in the region. Consequently, Torreón, Gómez Palacio, and Lerdo, which are part of the La Laguna Metropolitan Zone (ZML), have expanded into new territories along the riverbanks and adjacent recharge areas. Establishing the boundaries of specific watersheds is crucial for the implementation of targeted rural and urban intervention strategies. This approach enhances understanding of interactions between the natural hydromorphology of a hydrological region, water infrastructure (dams, canals, reservoirs), and the urban and rural landscape. To effectively plan based on watershed boundaries, it is essential to develop hybrid cartographies that integrate urban, architectural, agricultural, and hydrological delineations. These maps provide valuable indicators for watershed-based planning, which facilitates precise hydrological urban restoration strategies tailored to specific basins. This research focuses on developing and presenting such hybrid cartographies, which combine hydrological, rural, and geographic data. This methodology aligns with the overarching objective of mitigating water stress in RH36 and promoting a transition towards more sustainable forms of agriculture.
墨西哥 36 号水文区(RH36)面临着巨大的用水压力,趋向于农业单一生产。在通过修建水坝和开凿运河对其主要河流纳萨斯河和阿瓜纳瓦尔河进行治理后,纳萨斯河下游流域的水流量变得微不足道,这改变了该地区主要城市的河岸面貌。因此,属于拉古纳都市区(ZML)的托雷翁、戈麦斯-帕拉西奥和勒尔多已经沿着河岸和附近的补给区扩展到了新的领地。确定特定流域的边界对于实施有针对性的城乡干预战略至关重要。这种方法可以加深对水文地区自然水文形态、水利基础设施(水坝、运河、水库)以及城乡景观之间相互作用的理解。为了有效地根据流域边界进行规划,必须绘制混合地图,将城市、建筑、农业和水文划界融为一体。这些地图为基于流域的规划提供了宝贵的指标,有助于针对特定流域制定精确的城市水文修复战略。这项研究的重点是开发和展示这种结合了水文、农村和地理数据的混合制图。这种方法符合减轻 RH36 地区水资源压力和促进向更可持续的农业形式过渡的总体目标。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Emission under Multiple Development Scenarios at the City Level: A Case Study of Xi’an, China 多种发展情景下城市土地利用变化与碳排放的模拟与预测:中国西安案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.3390/land13071079
Rui Bian, Anzhou Zhao, Lidong Zou, Xianfeng Liu, Ruihao Xu, Ziyang Li
Studying urban land use and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China’s dual carbon goals. This research utilized the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios 126, 245, and 585 from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), along with a coupled System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and a carbon emission coefficient method to simulate and predict Xi’an’s land use carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040. The results indicate the following: (1) Cultivated and forest lands are the predominant land use types in Xi’an, with cultivated and grassland areas projected to decline under all three SSP scenarios by 2040. The most significant expansion of construction land, primarily at the expense of farmland, is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with an increase of 515.92 km2 by 2040. (2) Land use carbon emissions increased from 414.15 × 104 t in 2000 to 2376.10 × 104 t in 2020, with construction land being the primary source of emissions and forest land serving as the main carbon sink. However, the carbon sink capacity remained low at only 21.38 × 104 t in 2020. (3) Carbon emissions are expected to continue increasing under all scenarios through 2030 and 2040, though at a decreasing rate. The SSP126 scenario predicts the lowest emissions, reaching 9186.00 × 104 t by 2040, while SSP585 predicts the highest at 14,935.00 × 104 t. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for future low-carbon and high-quality urban development strategies.
研究城市土地利用及其对碳排放的影响对于实现中国的双碳目标至关重要。本研究利用第六次国际耦合模式比对项目(CMIP6)中的共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景126、245和585,以及耦合系统动力学(SD)和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型和碳排放系数方法,模拟和预测了西安市2020-2040年的土地利用碳排放量。结果表明(1)耕地和林地是西安市最主要的土地利用类型,预计到 2040 年,三种 SSP 情景下的耕地和草地面积都将减少。在 SSP585 情景下,建设用地的扩张最为明显,到 2040 年将增加 515.92 平方公里,这主要是以牺牲耕地为代价的。(2)土地利用碳排放量从 2000 年的 414.15×104 t 增加到 2020 年的 2376.10×104 t,其中建设用地是主要的碳排放源,而林地则是主要的碳汇。然而,2020 年的碳汇能力仍然很低,仅为 21.38 × 104 t。(3) 在 2030 年和 2040 年之前,所有情景下的碳排放量预计都将继续增加,但增速将有所下降。SSP126 预测的排放量最低,到 2040 年为 9186.00 × 104 t,而 SSP585 预测的排放量最高,为 14935.00 × 104 t。
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