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Analysing the Effectiveness of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Mozambique: A VAR Model Approach 分析莫桑比克货币传导机制的有效性:VAR 模型方法
Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n5p1
Khalilahmad Mussa Bahadur
This study analyses the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism in Mozambique spanning from January 2008 to December 2022, employing a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The analysis focuses on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation, exploring how these variables respond to changes in monetary policy. The study’s findings underscore a negligible impact of monetary transmission channel variables on GDP. In terms of inflation, the study identifies the existence of interest rate, money, and exchange channel, while credit channel exhibit negligible effect. Variance decomposition and impulse response analysis confirm the transitory nature of monetary shocks on GDP and the comparatively stronger influence on inflation.
本研究采用向量自回归(VAR)模型,分析了莫桑比克 2008 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月期间货币传导机制的有效性。分析的重点是国内生产总值(GDP)和通货膨胀,探讨这些变量如何对货币政策的变化做出反应。研究结果表明,货币传导渠道变量对国内生产总值的影响微乎其微。在通货膨胀方面,研究确定了利率、货币和汇率渠道的存在,而信贷渠道的影响可以忽略不计。方差分解和脉冲响应分析证实,货币冲击对国内生产总值的影响是短暂的,而对通货膨胀的影响相对较大。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the Impact of Baumol’s Cost Disease in Brazilian Municipal Education: A Decade Analysis (2009-2019) 考察鲍莫尔成本病在巴西市政教育中的影响:十年分析(2009-2019 年)
Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n4p78
Ricardo da Costa Nunes, André Nunes
This paper examines the phenomenon known as Baumol’s cost disease within the Brazilian educational sector between 2009 and 2019, marked by substantial changes in teacher salaries and student-teacher ratios. Baumol’s cost disease describes the rise in salaries despite low productivity growth in sectors that do not benefit substantially from technological improvements. In education, salaries increased by establishing a national wage floor and decreasing student-teacher ratios. The study adapts Baumol’s model to the modern educational context, analysing the correlation between teacher remuneration and productivity and incorporating contemporary economic and policy dynamics. The findings indicate that, contrary to the theoretical expectation of a U-shaped curve for per capita educational spending, costs per student tend to decrease with the increase in municipal population size, with an exception observed in the largest cities. This paper contributes to the understanding of public spending on education in Brazil, highlighting the need for differentiated policy approaches to manage escalating costs in smaller municipalities and ensure equitable education quality across different municipal sizes.
本文研究了 2009 年至 2019 年期间巴西教育部门出现的鲍莫尔成本病现象,其特点是教师工资和师生比例发生了巨大变化。鲍莫尔成本病描述的是,在生产率增长较低的行业,尽管没有从技术改进中获得实质性好处,但工资却在上涨。在教育领域,通过设立国家工资下限和降低学生与教师的比例,教师工资得到了提高。本研究将鲍莫尔模型应用于现代教育,分析了教师薪酬与生产率之间的相关性,并纳入了当代经济和政策动态。研究结果表明,与人均教育支出呈 U 型曲线的理论预期相反,随着城市人口规模的增加,学生人均成本趋于下降,但最大城市的情况例外。本文有助于人们了解巴西的公共教育支出,强调需要采取不同的政策方法来管理小城市不断攀升的成本,并确保不同规模城市的教育质量公平。
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引用次数: 0
The Transmission Mechanism of the European Central Bank Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Assessment 欧洲中央银行非常规货币政策的传导机制:全球评估
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p50
Emmanuel Erem
During, and after the 2008 financial crisis, most monetary authorities in advanced economies officially adopted Unconvenetional Monetary Policy (UMP); that involves the mass purchase of treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This policy is intended to serve the purpose of mitigating the effects of crises, especially when the interest rate has reached the so-called Zero Lower Bound (ZLB). This study attempts to examine the transmission mechanism/channels of the European Central Bank (ECB) UMP, including both domestic and international spillover effects by employing a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. Generally, the ECB UMP effects show encouraging and positive responses from economies within the Euro Area region while international spillover effects are mixed, probably due to the diverse nature of the monetary policy regimes deployed in the different countries, especially the emerging economies.
在 2008 年金融危机期间和之后,发达经济体的大多数货币当局都正式采取了无准备金货币政策(UMP),即大规模购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券。这一政策旨在减轻危机的影响,尤其是当利率达到所谓的零下限(ZLB)时。本研究试图通过使用全球向量自回归(GVAR)模型来研究欧洲中央银行(ECB)UMP 的传导机制/渠道,包括国内和国际溢出效应。总体而言,欧洲央行的 UMP 效应显示出欧元区内各经济体令人鼓舞的积极反应,而国际溢出效应则好坏参半,这可能是由于不同国家,尤其是新兴经济体所采用的货币政策制度具有多样性。
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引用次数: 0
Constructing a Financial Risk Early Warning Model for Chinese Public Hospitals Based on Machine Learning 基于机器学习构建中国公立医院财务风险预警模型
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p64
Xi Zhao, Bing Lu
In today’s increasingly complex healthcare environment, China’s public hospitals face enormous financial challenges. The high degree of uncertainty and suddenness of financial risks make public hospitals need more sophisticated and real-time financial risk early warning mechanisms. To address this challenge, machine learning algorithms are introduced as a powerful tool to construct more accurate and efficient financial risk early warning models.the purpose of this dissertation is to summarize the recent research progress in constructing financial risk early warning models for Chinese public hospitals based on machine learning algorithms. The establishment of financial risk early warning models can not only help hospital management better understand the financial situation, but also identify potential risks in advance, which can provide powerful support for timely adjustment of strategies and countermeasures.
在医疗环境日益复杂的今天,中国公立医院面临着巨大的财务挑战。财务风险的高度不确定性和突发性,使得公立医院需要更加完善和实时的财务风险预警机制。本论文旨在总结近年来基于机器学习算法构建中国公立医院财务风险预警模型的研究进展。财务风险预警模型的建立不仅能帮助医院管理层更好地了解财务状况,还能提前识别潜在风险,为及时调整策略和对策提供有力支持。
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引用次数: 0
The Transmission Mechanism of the European Central Bank Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Assessment 欧洲中央银行非常规货币政策的传导机制:全球评估
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p50
Emmanuel Erem
During, and after the 2008 financial crisis, most monetary authorities in advanced economies officially adopted Unconvenetional Monetary Policy (UMP); that involves the mass purchase of treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This policy is intended to serve the purpose of mitigating the effects of crises, especially when the interest rate has reached the so-called Zero Lower Bound (ZLB). This study attempts to examine the transmission mechanism/channels of the European Central Bank (ECB) UMP, including both domestic and international spillover effects by employing a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. Generally, the ECB UMP effects show encouraging and positive responses from economies within the Euro Area region while international spillover effects are mixed, probably due to the diverse nature of the monetary policy regimes deployed in the different countries, especially the emerging economies.
在 2008 年金融危机期间和之后,发达经济体的大多数货币当局都正式采取了无准备金货币政策(UMP),即大规模购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券。这一政策旨在减轻危机的影响,尤其是当利率达到所谓的零下限(ZLB)时。本研究试图通过使用全球向量自回归(GVAR)模型来研究欧洲中央银行(ECB)UMP 的传导机制/渠道,包括国内和国际溢出效应。总体而言,欧洲央行的 UMP 效应显示出欧元区内各经济体令人鼓舞的积极反应,而国际溢出效应则好坏参半,这可能是由于不同国家,尤其是新兴经济体所采用的货币政策制度具有多样性。
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引用次数: 0
Constructing a Financial Risk Early Warning Model for Chinese Public Hospitals Based on Machine Learning 基于机器学习构建中国公立医院财务风险预警模型
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p64
Xi Zhao, Bing Lu
In today’s increasingly complex healthcare environment, China’s public hospitals face enormous financial challenges. The high degree of uncertainty and suddenness of financial risks make public hospitals need more sophisticated and real-time financial risk early warning mechanisms. To address this challenge, machine learning algorithms are introduced as a powerful tool to construct more accurate and efficient financial risk early warning models.the purpose of this dissertation is to summarize the recent research progress in constructing financial risk early warning models for Chinese public hospitals based on machine learning algorithms. The establishment of financial risk early warning models can not only help hospital management better understand the financial situation, but also identify potential risks in advance, which can provide powerful support for timely adjustment of strategies and countermeasures.
在医疗环境日益复杂的今天,中国公立医院面临着巨大的财务挑战。财务风险的高度不确定性和突发性,使得公立医院需要更加完善和实时的财务风险预警机制。本论文旨在总结近年来基于机器学习算法构建中国公立医院财务风险预警模型的研究进展。财务风险预警模型的建立不仅能帮助医院管理层更好地了解财务状况,还能提前识别潜在风险,为及时调整策略和对策提供有力支持。
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引用次数: 0
A BVAR Note on the J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner Condition for Brazil 关于巴西 J 曲线和马歇尔-勒纳条件的 BVAR 说明
Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p31
F. J. S. Rocha, Marcos R. V. Magalhães, Á. A. Brilhante
In the present work, the hypotheses of the J-curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition for Brazil from January 2003 to December 2019 were tested. The impulse-response function (IRF) and the variance decomposition (VD) of a Bayesian vector autoregressive model (Minnesota priors) served as instruments for the empirical verification of the above-mentioned hypotheses. The Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) structural break test was carried out, which identified two breaks and, consequently, three subsamples, from January 2003 to October 2007; December 2007 to June 2015; and July 2015 to December 2019. The results showed that the estimated BVAR empirically supports the hypotheses in question. In the short term, it is observed that a real depreciation of the Brazilian currency results, in the first five months, in a deficit in the trade balance. However, as of the fourth month, the result of the trade balance becomes positive, and it remains like that for longer than ten months. This means that one cannot reject the J-curve hypothesis. For a forecast horizon of 36 months, it was found that the Marshall-Lerner condition should not be rejected either. In other words, a currency devaluation causes an increase in the trade balance for longer than three years.
在本研究中,对巴西 2003 年 1 月至 2019 年 12 月的 J 曲线和马歇尔-勒纳条件假设进行了检验。贝叶斯向量自回归模型(明尼苏达先验)的脉冲响应函数(IRF)和方差分解(VD)作为实证验证上述假设的工具。进行了 Bai 和 Perron(1998 年,2003 年)的结构断裂检验,确定了两个断裂点,从而确定了三个子样本,即 2003 年 1 月至 2007 年 10 月;2007 年 12 月至 2015 年 6 月;2015 年 7 月至 2019 年 12 月。结果显示,估计的 BVAR 在经验上支持相关假设。从短期来看,巴西货币的实际贬值在前五个月会导致贸易逆差。然而,从第四个月开始,贸易差额的结果就变成了正数,而且这种情况持续了十个月以上。这意味着我们无法否定 J 曲线假设。在预测期限为 36 个月的情况下,也不能拒绝马歇尔-勒纳条件。换言之,货币贬值导致贸易差额增加的时间超过三年。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Capital Account Openness in China 中国的最佳资本账户开放度
Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p42
Wenyun Zhou
This paper measures the degree of capital account openness and financial stability index, and uses GDP to represent economic development. Recent research mainly focuses on the qualitative research of capital account openness on financial stability and economic development. This paper tries to find the optimal degree of capital account openness based on current economic structure and financial situation through quantitative methods. I use Kalman filter to measure the degree of capital account openness based on the interest rate parity theory and defines the degree of capital account openness as λ, the range of λ is [0, 1]. For the measurement of financial stability, this paper adopts principal component analysis method, and selects 17 groups of data related to financial stability to measure it. Based on these two sets of figures, as well as monthly GDP data, establishes TVAR model, studies the impulse response graph, and determines the impact on financial stability index, GDP and λ. This paper uses support vector machine regression (SVR) to quantitatively analyze the relationship among capital account openness, economic development, and financial stability.
本文衡量了资本账户开放程度和金融稳定指数,并用 GDP 代表经济发展。近年来的研究主要集中于资本账户开放对金融稳定和经济发展的定性研究。本文试图通过定量方法找到基于当前经济结构和金融形势的最优资本账户开放度。 笔者基于利率平价理论,采用卡尔曼滤波法测算资本账户开放程度,并将资本账户开放程度定义为λ,λ的取值范围为[0,1]。对于金融稳定性的测度,本文采用主成分分析法,选取 17 组与金融稳定性相关的数据进行测度。本文利用支持向量机回归(SVR)对资本账户开放度、经济发展和金融稳定性之间的关系进行定量分析。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Islamic Financial Corporations on Economic Activity: A Case Study of Orphans Fund Development Corporation in Jordan During the Period (2014-2021) 伊斯兰金融公司对经济活动的影响:约旦孤儿基金发展公司案例研究(2014-2021 年)
Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p15
Ateyah Mohammad Ateyah Alawneh
This study aims to test the role of Islamic financial corporations on Jordan’s gross domestic product, a representative for economic activity. The Tamweel Amwal Al-Ittam (Orphans Fund Development Corporation, hereafter referred to as “the Corporation”) served as the case study for this research, investigated during the period of 2014-2021. Given the limited availability of annual reports on the Corporation’s website, quarterly data were gathered using E-Views software. Co-integration test and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method to verify the study’s hypotheses. Results of the co-integration test indicated a long-term equilibrium relationship among the study variables, representing the Corporation’s investments in lands and buildings, Murabaha and AL-ijarah (Financial Leasing), investment in the stock portfolio, deposits in Islamic banks, total investment of the Corporation, and economic activity. FMOLS results showed that the Corporation’s investments in lands and buildings, Murabaha and AL-ijarah, and investment in the stock portfolio have positive and statistically significant effects on Jordan’s economic activity. The FMOLS results also confirmed that the total investment of the Corporation have a positive and statistically significant influence on Jordan’s economic activity. These results indicate that the Corporation’s real investment directly contributes to the interest of the country’s economic activity. The study recommends adopting policies that promote the growth of Islamic financial corporations. This can be achieved by providing proposals and offering financial and administrative support. It also highlights the importance of utilizing modern Islamic financing methods as an effective option for mitigating unemployment and inflation and providing employment opportunities that stimulate economic activity.
本研究旨在检验伊斯兰金融公司对约旦国内生产总值(经济活动的代表)的作用。Tamweel Amwal Al-Ittam(孤儿基金发展公司,以下简称 "公司")是本研究的案例,调查时间为 2014-2021 年。鉴于该公司网站上的年度报告有限,因此使用 E-Views 软件收集了季度数据。采用协整检验和完全修正普通最小二乘法(FMOLS)验证研究假设。协整检验结果表明,研究变量之间存在长期均衡关系,这些变量代表了公司在土地和建筑物、Murabaha 和 AL-ijarah(金融租赁)、股票投资组合、伊斯兰银行存款、公司总投资以及经济活动方面的投资。FMOLS 结果表明,公司在土地和建筑物、Murabaha 和 AL-ijarah 以及股票投资组合方面的投资对约旦的经济活动有积极的、统计意义上的影响。FMOLS 的结果也证实,公司的总投资对约旦的经济活动有积极的、统计意义上的影响。这些结果表明,公司的实际投资直接促进了国家经济活动的利益。研究建议采取促进伊斯兰金融公司发展的政策。这可以通过提供建议以及提供财务和行政支持来实现。研究还强调了利用现代伊斯兰融资方法的重要性,将其作为缓解失业和通货膨胀以及提供刺激经济活动的就业机会的有效选择。
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引用次数: 0
Framework Proposal for the Analysis of Tax Illusion, Its Antecedents, and Consequents 分析税收幻觉、其前因和后果的框架建议
Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v16n3p1
Jandeson dantas da Silva, Wênyka Preston Leite Batista da Costa, Clóvis Antônio Kronbauer, Luiz Antônio Félix Júnior, Ernani Ott, Diego López Herrera
The present research aims to propose a framework to analyze the fiscal illusion, its antecedents, and consequents from the perception of Brazilian taxpayers. In terms of methodological typology, this research was framed as descriptive, using the survey as a procedure and the approach to the quantitative problem through Structural Equation Modeling techniques. After adjusting the model, the results show a significant correlation between the constructs of fiscal illusion and open data and a significant correlation between budgetary governance and fiscal illusion and between fiscal governance and fiscal illusion. Based on the analysis involving fiscal illusion and citizen participation, we conclude that there is a significant relationship between the constructs. Furthermore, the proposed integrated model indicated the possibility of improvement in the adjustment indices by considering significant correlations between the constructs concerning open data and budgetary governance, open data and fiscal governance, and budgetary governance and fiscal governance. It is inferred that the validated framework constitutes an academic implication, addressing theoretical gaps and contributing practically and with a social purpose, making it possible to improve the functioning of public administration and the provision of efficient services.
本研究旨在提出一个框架,从巴西纳税人的角度分析财政幻觉及其前因后果。在方法类型上,本研究以描述性研究为框架,以调查为程序,通过结构方程模型技术解决定量问题。在对模型进行调整后,结果显示财政幻觉和开放数据这两个结构之间存在显著的相关性,预算治理和财政幻觉之间以及财政治理和财政幻觉之间也存在显著的相关性。根据对财政幻觉和公民参与的分析,我们得出结论,这两个构念之间存在着显著的关系。此外,通过考虑开放数据与预算治理、开放数据与财政治理、预算治理与财政治理等构念之间的显著相关性,所提出的综合模型显示了改进调整指数的可能性。可以推断,经过验证的框架具有学术意义,弥补了理论上的不足,具有实用性和社会目的性,使改善公共行政的运作和提供高效服务成为可能。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Economics and Finance
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