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The production of official agricultural statistics in 2040: What does the future hold? 2040 年官方农业统计数据的编制:未来会怎样?
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/sji-240043
Linda J. Young, G. Carletto, Graciela Márquez, Dominik A. Rozkrut, Spiro Stefanou
Many National Statistical Offices are modernizing the systems and processes underpinning the production of official agricultural statistics. Moving data and processes to the cloud, collecting survey data via the web, automating editing and imputation, incorporating more administrative, remotely sensed and other non-survey data in the estimation process, and more flexible dissemination of information are only some of the areas of current efforts. Although specific modernization efforts have been described, less discussion has been focused on exactly what the future of official agricultural statistics will be. During the 9th International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, which was held May 17–19, 2023, at the World Bank in Washington DC USA, four statistical leaders with diverse perspectives envision the not-too-distant future of official agricultural statistics in 2040.
许多国家统计局正在对作为官方农业统计数据编制基础的系统和流程进行现代化改造。将数据和流程转移到云端,通过网络收集调查数据,实现编辑和估算自动化,在估算过程中纳入更多行政、遥感和其他非调查数据,以及更灵活地传播信息,这些只是当前工作的部分领域。虽然已经介绍了具体的现代化工作,但关于官方农业统计的未来究竟会是怎样的讨论却较少。在 2023 年 5 月 17-19 日于美国华盛顿世界银行举行的第九届国际农业统计会议上,四位具有不同视角的统计领袖展望了 2040 年官方农业统计并不遥远的未来。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying spatially differentiated pathways for rural transformation in Pakistan 确定巴基斯坦农村转型的空间差异路径
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230082
Vandercasteelen Joachim, Namesh Nazar, Yahya Bajwa, Willem Janssen
This paper proposes a conceptual and empirical framework to develop rural transformation strategies tailored to the agroecological potential and market access of rural areas in Pakistan. Such a framework allows to move away from stereotypical countrywide policies as in use in Pakistan and many other countries. Using publicly available geospatial measures of vegetation greenness and an urban gravity model to proxy the agricultural market demand, we classify Pakistan’s rural districts into categories with similar comparative advantages and describe dominant livelihood activities. The framework recommends market-based approaches to support commercial agriculture or non-agriculture business development in well-connected areas and where households have accumulated human and physical capital. In areas with less developed agricultural potential or market access, households will benefit from area-based and community-driven development, skill development, and labor programs. Since data collection is often challenging in rural areas, statistical agencies can use such an empirical framework to advise policymakers on prioritizing public investments and tailoring rural transformation pathways. In addition, statistical agencies can also extend the framework at different levels of resolution, from national to local level, and complement it with primary data sources to validate the usefulness of the approach.
本文提出了一个概念性和实证性框架,以根据巴基斯坦农村地区的农业生态潜力和市场准入情况制定农村转型战略。这种框架有助于摆脱巴基斯坦和其他许多国家所采用的全国性刻板政策。利用可公开获得的植被绿度地理空间测量方法和城市引力模型来代表农业市场需求,我们将巴基斯坦的农村地区划分为具有相似比较优势的类别,并描述了主要的生计活动。该框架建议在交通便利、家庭积累了人力和物质资本的地区,采用基于市场的方法支持商业农业或非农业企业的发展。在农业潜力或市场准入欠发达的地区,家庭将受益于以地区和社区为导向的发展、技能发展和劳动力计划。由于在农村地区收集数据往往具有挑战性,统计机构可利用这一经验框架,就公共投资的优先次序和农村转型路径的定制向政策制定者提供建议。此外,统计机构还可将该框架扩展到从国家到地方的不同解决层面,并通过原始数据来源对其进行补充,以验证该方法的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Outlier identification and adjustment for time series 时间序列的离群值识别与调整
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230109
Markus Fröhlich
Identification and replacement of erroneous data is of fundamental importance for the quality of statistical surveys. If statistical units are continuously sampled over an extended period, time series methods can facilitate this task. Numerous outlier identification and replacement procedures are accessible for this particular purpose, like RegArima Approaches within the seasonal adjustment procedures in X13-Arima or Tramo/Seats. These algorithms can be used to identify different types of outliers, like additive outliers, level shifts or transitory changes. In this paper an alternative outlier identification procedure is proposed which is based on a nonlinear model estimated with support vector regressions. The focus of this procedure is on the identification of additive outliers and on the applicability for short time series with less than 3 years of observations.
识别和替换错误数据对统计调查的质量至关重要。如果统计单位在一个较长的时期内连续采样,时间序列方法可以帮助完成这项任务。许多离群值识别和替换程序都可用于这一特定目的,如 X13-Arima 或 Tramo/Seats 中季节调整程序中的 RegArima 方法。这些算法可用于识别不同类型的离群值,如加法离群值、水平移动或短暂变化。本文提出了另一种离群值识别程序,该程序以支持向量回归估算的非线性模型为基础。该程序的重点是识别加性离群值,并适用于观测时间少于 3 年的短期时间序列。
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引用次数: 0
The interdependence and cointegration of stock markets: Evidence from Japan, India and USA 股票市场的相互依存性和协整性:日本、印度和美国的证据
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/sji-240011
John Pradeep Kumar, N. Mukund Sharma
In a rapidly globalizing world, understanding the relationships between major stock markets is of paramount importance for investors and financial analysts. This study explores the interdependence and cointegration of stock markets in Japan, India, and the USA, and explores the dynamics of global financial markets as well as the survival of a long-term and short-term link between these three indices. These leading stock markets were selected because of the researchers’ desire to learn more about the connections between them. From April 2012 through March 2022, we used monthly data from three major stock market indices: the NIKKEI (Japan), theBSE SENSEX (India), and the NASDAQ (USA). Stock market performance in both the United States and India tend to move together. Additionally, the GC test is utilized in an effort to ascertain if the markets have any form of forecasting ability. Based on the results of the tests conducted, it was determined that the NASDAQ index can accurately predict the SENSEX index, but the NIKKEI index. The United States and the Indian stock markets are highly correlated. To further investigate the markets’ potential for foresight, the Granger causality test is applied. Tests showed that while the NASDAQ index predicted the SENSEX index with high precision, the NIKKEI index did not. After a causal relationship has been established, we then look for evidence of a short- and long-term connection.
在迅速全球化的世界中,了解主要股票市场之间的关系对于投资者和金融分析师来说至关重要。本研究探讨了日本、印度和美国股市之间的相互依存和协整关系,并探索了全球金融市场的动态以及这三个指数之间长期和短期联系的存续情况。之所以选择这些领先的股票市场,是因为研究人员希望更多地了解它们之间的联系。从 2012 年 4 月到 2022 年 3 月,我们使用了三大股票市场指数的月度数据:日经指数(日本)、BSE SENSEX 指数(印度)和纳斯达克指数(美国)。美国和印度的股市表现往往是同步变动的。此外,我们还利用 GC 检验来确定市场是否具有任何形式的预测能力。根据测试结果,纳斯达克指数可以准确预测 SENSEX 指数,但不能预测日经指数。美国和印度股票市场高度相关。为了进一步研究市场的预测潜力,采用了格兰杰因果检验法。检验结果表明,纳斯达克指数对 SENSEX 指数的预测精确度很高,而日经指数则不然。在确定因果关系后,我们再寻找短期和长期联系的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Crop sequence boundaries using USDA national agricultural statistics service historic cropland data layers 利用美国农业部国家农业统计服务历史耕地数据层划分作物序列边界
Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230078
Kevin A. Hunt, Jonathon Abernethy, Peter C. Beeson, Maria Bowman, Steven Wallander, Ryan Williams
Gridded landcover datasets like the NASS Cropland Data Layer (CDL) provide a useful resource for analyses of cropland management. However, many farm operation decisions are made at the field level, not the pixel level. To capture relationships between land cover and field characteristics – size, contiguity, etc. – some method is needed to aggregate gridded data into crop fields. To provide a uniform and consistent approach for aggregation of gridded data at the field level over a series of years, this research project developed a set of Crop Sequence Boundaries (CSBs), which are polygons that delineate areas of homogeneous cropping sequences for the contiguous US. The CSBs are open-sourced algorithm-based, geospatial polygons derived using historic CDLs together with road and rail networks to capture areas with common cropping sequences. The CSB approach used geospatial functions in Google Earth Engine (GEE) and in the ArcGIS Pro application. These geospatial functions are run in parallel by sub-dividing the contiguous US into smaller regions based on road and rail boundaries to prevent overlaps or gaps in the data. As a new set of algorithmically delineated field polygons, the CSBs enhance applications requiring large-scale crop mapping with vector-based data.
网格土地覆盖数据集(如 NASS 耕地数据层 (CDL))为耕地管理分析提供了有用的资源。然而,许多农场经营决策是在田地层面而非像素层面做出的。为了捕捉土地覆被与田地特征(面积、毗连性等)之间的关系,需要采用某种方法来汇总网格。- 需要采用某种方法将网格数据汇总到作物田中。为了提供一种统一、一致的方法来汇总多年来田块级的网格数据,该研究项目开发了一套作物序列边界(CSBs),这是一种多边形,用于划定美国毗连地区的同质作物序列区域。CSB 是基于开源算法的地理空间多边形,利用历史 CDL 以及公路和铁路网络来捕捉具有共同种植序列的区域。CSB 方法使用了谷歌地球引擎 (GEE) 和 ArcGIS Pro 应用程序中的地理空间功能。这些地理空间功能并行运行,根据公路和铁路边界将美国毗连区细分为更小的区域,以防止数据中出现重叠或空白。作为一套新的算法划定的田间多边形,CSB 增强了需要使用基于矢量数据的大规模作物制图的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Computing levels of nutrient inadequacy from household consumption and expenditure surveys: A case study 从家庭消费和支出调查中计算营养素不足的程度:案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230086
Ana Moltedo, Cristina Álvarez-Sánchez, Nathalie Troubat, Carlo Cafiero
This paper presents an approach to estimate the between-subject variability in nutrient intake (through the coefficient of variation [CV]) and a method to estimate the prevalence of nutrient inadequacy (PoNI) (for eight micronutrients) using household consumption and expenditure survey (HCES) data. Prevalence values are compared to individual-level estimates derived using the National-Cancer-Institute method. Data come from the 2015 Bangladesh Integrated-Household-Survey, which conducted a household-level 7-day recall (7DR) and two rounds of individual-level 24-hour recall (24HR), filled by one respondent on behalf of all members, for the same rural households. The PoNI values based on 7DR are lower than those calculated from 24HR data, due to the larger average intake estimates from 7DR data. After controlling for differences in average intake estimates and adjusting household-level data for random measurement errors, the PoNI values from 7DR and 24HR data are remarkably close. This highlights the potential use of HCES data (conducted according to international agreed standards) for estimating the level of between-subject variability in usual nutrient intake in a population. The CVs from HCES could be used to compute the PoNI using average intake estimates from individual-level data; and the inadequacy of global nutrient supply using Supply and Utilization Accounts data.
本文介绍了一种利用家庭消费和支出调查(HCES)数据估算营养素摄入量受试者间变异性(通过变异系数[CV])的方法,以及一种估算营养素摄入不足流行率(PoNI)(针对八种微量营养素)的方法。流行率值与使用国家癌症研究所方法得出的个人水平估计值进行了比较。数据来自 2015 年孟加拉国综合住户调查(Bangladesh Integrated-Household-Survey ),该调查对同一农村住户进行了家庭层面的 7 天回忆(7DR)和两轮个人层面的 24 小时回忆(24HR),由一名受访者代表所有成员填写。根据 7DR 计算出的 PoNI 值低于根据 24HR 数据计算出的 PoNI 值,这是因为 7DR 数据中的平均摄入量估计值较大。在控制了平均摄入量估计值的差异并对家庭层面的数据进行了随机测量误差调整后,7DR 和 24HR 数据得出的 PoNI 值非常接近。这凸显了 HCES 数据(根据国际公认标准进行)在估算人群通常营养素摄入量的受试者间变异水平方面的潜在用途。HCES 的 CV 值可用于利用个人层面数据的平均摄入量估算值计算 PoNI;以及利用供应和利用账户数据计算全球营养素供应量的不足之处。
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引用次数: 0
More efficient use of household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCES) to inform food security 更有效地利用家庭消费和支出调查 (HCES) 为粮食安全提供信息
Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230098
Astrid Mathiassen, Owen Siyoto, Ellen Cathrine Kiøsterud
Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (HCES) collect comprehensive information on households’ consumption and can provide a range of analyses on access to food. They are key to estimating poverty (SDG 1.2.1) and Prevalence of Undernourishment (SDG 2.1.1). Before the food data becomes meaningful for analysis, it needs extensive preparation. While NSOs are responsible for poverty statistics and typically prepare the data for this purpose, it is often organizations or researchers that use the data for food security. Although the preparation of the data for these two purposes has a lot in common, they rely on different traditions and guidelines. This paper presents results from an ongoing project that aims to bridge the gap between these two processes. The project’s goal is that NSOs take the lead in preparing the HCES food data for all uses. An expected result is that the food security statistics will be available at the same time as the other main outputs from the survey and can be used for planning for improved food security. The project includes preparing a guideline for NSOs and others (endorsed by the United Nations’ Statistical Commission in 2024), building capacity in NSOs, and using results in a regional context.
家庭消费和支出调查(HCES)收集有关家庭消费的全面信息,可提供有关获得食物情况的一系列分析。它们是估算贫困(可持续发展目标 1.2.1)和营养不良发生率(可持续发展目标 2.1.1)的关键。在对食品数据进行有意义的分析之前,需要对其进行大量准备工作。虽然国家统计局负责贫困统计并通常为此目的准备数据,但通常是组织或研究人员使用粮食安全数据。虽然这两种用途的数据准备工作有很多共同之处,但它们依赖于不同的传统和指导方针。本文介绍了一个正在进行的项目的成果,该项目旨在缩小这两个过程之间的差距。该项目的目标是由各国统计局牵头,为所有用途准备 HCES 粮食数据。预期结果是,粮食安全统计数据将与调查的其他主要产出同时提供,并可用于改善粮食安全的规划。该项目包括为各国统计局和其他机构编制一份指南(2024 年由联合国统计委员会批准)、建设各国统计局的能力以及在区域范围内使用结果。
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引用次数: 0
Indonesian GDP movement detection using online news classification 利用在线新闻分类检测印度尼西亚 GDP 变动情况
Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230038
Dinda Pusparahmi Sholawatunnisa, L. H. Suadaa, Usep Nugraha, Setia Pramana
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stands as a pivotal indicator, offering strategic insights into economic dynamics. Recent technological advancements, particularly in real-time information dissemination through online economic news platforms, provide an accessible and alternative data source for analyzing GDP movements. This study employs online news classification to identify patterns in the movement and growth rate of Indonesia’s GDP. Utilizing a web scraping technique, we collected data for analysis. The classification models employed include transfer learning from pre-trained language model transformers, with classical machine learning methods serving as baseline models. The results indicate superior performance by the pre-trained language model transformers, achieving the highest accuracy of 0.8880 and 0.7899. In comparison, hyperparameter-tuned classical machine learning models also demonstrated commendable results, with the best accuracy reaching 0.845 and 0.7811. This research underscores the efficacy of leveraging online news classification, particularly through advanced language models. The findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of economic dynamics, aligning with the contemporary landscape of information accessibility and technological progress.
国内生产总值(GDP)是一个关键指标,可提供经济动态的战略洞察力。最近的技术进步,尤其是通过在线经济新闻平台进行实时信息传播的技术进步,为分析国内生产总值的变动提供了一个可访问的替代数据源。本研究利用在线新闻分类来识别印尼国内生产总值的变动和增长率模式。我们利用网络搜索技术收集数据进行分析。采用的分类模型包括来自预训练语言模型转换器的迁移学习,以及作为基准模型的经典机器学习方法。结果表明,预先训练的语言模型转换器性能优越,达到了 0.8880 和 0.7899 的最高准确率。相比之下,经过超参数调整的经典机器学习模型也取得了可喜的成绩,最佳准确率分别达到了 0.845 和 0.7811。这项研究强调了利用网络新闻分类的有效性,特别是通过先进的语言模型。研究结果有助于深入理解经济动态,与当代信息可获取性和技术进步相一致。
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引用次数: 0
Who are small-scale food producers in Italy? Comparisons among different approaches 谁是意大利的小型食品生产商?不同方法之间的比较
Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230085
Roberto Gismondi
The question “What is a small-scale producer?” keeps receiving different answers depending on the context in which is posed. Alternative ways of defining smallholders reflect heterogeneous historical and institutional eco-systemic contexts and depend upon what is the role of small-scale agriculture in the rural economy. This has become a pressing issue given the need to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which refers to “small” farmers. Two important related issues are: 1) the adoption of a specific and robust definition of small-scale food producer (SSFP) and 2) the empirical implementation of this definition to determine the SSFPs. The calculations require suitable databases with microdata at the level of individual farms. Based on the 2020 agricultural census results, we identified the small food producers in Italy. We also proposed and compared other approaches to identify SSFPs, that are simpler than that proposed by the FAO and could also be calculated for other census years. Since revenues are not available for every farm – even the census did not collect this information – the standard indicator of production was used instead of revenues to identify SSFPs.
什么是小规模生产者?"这个问题因提出的背景不同而有不同的答案。定义小农的其他方法反映了不同的历史和制度生态系统背景,并取决于小规模农业在农村经济中的作用。鉴于需要监测可持续发展目标(SDGs),这已成为一个紧迫的问题,其中提到了 "小 "农户。两个重要的相关问题是1) 对小规模粮食生产者(SSFP)采用一个具体而可靠的定义;2) 根据经验实施这一定义,以确定小规模粮食生产者。计算需要合适的数据库,其中包含单个农场层面的微观数据。根据 2020 年农业普查结果,我们确定了意大利的小型食品生产商。我们还提出并比较了其他识别 SSFP 的方法,这些方法比粮农组织提出的方法更简单,也可用于其他普查年份的计算。由于无法获得每个农场的收入--甚至普查也没有收集这方面的信息--因此我们使用标准的生产指标而不是收入来识别 SSFP。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the multivariate distributional accuracy of common imputation methods 评估常用估算方法的多元分布准确性
Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230015
M. Thurow, Florian Dumpert, Burim Ramosaj, Markus Pauly
Imputation methods are popular tools that allow for a wide range of subsequent analyses on complete data sets. However, in order for these analyses to be trustworthy, it is important that the imputation procedure reflects the true distribution of the unobserved data sufficiently well. This raises the question how well different imputation methods can reproduce multivariate correlations, associations or even the entire multivariate distribution. The paper gives first answers to this question by means of an extensive comparative simulation study. In particular, we evaluate the multivariate distributional accuracy for six state-of-the art imputation algorithms with respect to different measures and give practical recommendations.
估算方法是一种流行的工具,可以对完整的数据集进行广泛的后续分析。然而,为了使这些分析值得信赖,重要的是估算程序能充分反映未观察数据的真实分布。这就提出了一个问题:不同的估算方法能在多大程度上再现多变量相关性、关联性甚至整个多变量分布。本文通过广泛的比较模拟研究首次给出了这一问题的答案。特别是,我们根据不同的衡量标准,评估了六种最先进的估算算法的多变量分布准确性,并给出了实用建议。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Statistical Journal of the IAOS
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