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Structural Break in the Norwegian Labor Force Survey Due to a Redesign During a Pandemic 大流行病期间重新设计导致挪威劳动力调查结构性中断
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/0282423x241235267
Håvard Hungnes, T. Skjerpen, Jørn Ivar Hamre, Xiaoming Chen Jansen, Dinh Quang Pham, Ole Sandvik
The labor force surveys (LFS) of all EU countries underwent a substantial redesign in January 2021. To ensure coherent labor market time series for the main indicators in the Norwegian LFS, we model the impact of the redesign. We use a state-space model that takes explicit account of the rotating pattern of the LFS. We also include auxiliary variables related to employment and unemployment that are highly correlated with the LFS variables we consider. The results of a parallel run are also included in the model. The purpose of the article is to quantify the structural breaks due to the redesign. This article makes two contributions to the literature on the effects of redesign in surveys with a rotating panel, such as the LFS. First, we suggest a symmetric specification of the process of the wave-specific effects. Second, we account for substantial fluctuations in the labor force estimates due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the time around the LFS redesign by applying time-varying hyperparameters for both the LFS variables and the auxiliary variables. The specification with time-varying hyperparameters shows a better fit compared to the specification with time-invariant hyperparameters.
所有欧盟国家的劳动力调查(LFS)都在2021年1月进行了实质性的重新设计。为确保挪威劳动力调查主要指标的劳动力市场时间序列的一致性,我们对重新设计的影响进行了建模。我们使用的状态空间模型明确考虑了LFS的轮换模式。我们还加入了与就业和失业有关的辅助变量,这些变量与我们所考虑的劳动力调查变量高度相关。模型中还包含了平行运行的结果。本文的目的是量化重新设计带来的结构性断裂。本文对有关重新设计在诸如 LFS 等旋转面板调查中的影响的文献有两点贡献。首先,我们建议对特定波次效应的过程进行对称规范。其次,通过对 LFS 变量和辅助变量采用时变超参数,我们解释了 LFS 重新设计前后 COVID-19 大流行对劳动力估计值造成的大幅波动。与使用时间不变超参数的模型相比,使用时间变化超参数的模型显示出更好的拟合效果。
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引用次数: 0
Steps Toward a Shared Infrastructure for Multi-Party Secure Private Computing in Official Statistics 为官方统计中的多方安全私人计算建立共享基础设施的步骤
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/0282423x241235259
Fabio Ricciato
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引用次数: 0
Nonresponse Bias of Japanese Wage Statistics 日本工资统计数据的非响应偏差
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/0282423x241235256
Daiji Kawaguchi, Takahiro Toriyabe
This article analyzes unit nonresponse bias of establishment surveys, drawing on two major government wage surveys in Japan. We find that unit nonresponse is prevalent among establishments with fewer employees, in urban prefectures, and operating in the service industry. Further, while low-wage establishments are less likely to respond, the resulting bias is quantitatively negligible. Regarding establishment sampling of employees, we find that the sampled establishments randomly choose workers in an appropriate manner. Overall, with proper weighting, nonresponse bias is negligible in Japanese wage statistics to the extent that the mean estimate is concerned. In addition to nonresponse bias, we also assess potential bias due to limited coverage of the sampling population and find substantial bias at the tails of the wage distribution. In particular, excluding corporate executives and establishments with few employees results in an underestimation of wage inequality.
本文以日本政府的两项主要工资调查为基础,分析了单位无应答调查的偏差。我们发现,在雇员人数较少、位于都道府县且从事服务业的单位中,单位无回复现象十分普遍。此外,虽然低工资单位较少回复,但由此产生的偏差在数量上可以忽略不计。在企业雇员抽样方面,我们发现被抽样企业以适当的方式随机选择了工人。总体而言,在适当加权的情况下,日本工资统计中的非响应偏差在平均估计值的范围内可以忽略不计。除了非响应偏差外,我们还评估了因抽样人口覆盖范围有限而导致的潜在偏差,发现在工资分布的尾部存在很大偏差。特别是,剔除企业高管和雇员较少的单位会导致工资不平等被低估。
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引用次数: 0
Some Open Questions on Multiple-Source Extensions of Adaptive-Survey Design Concepts and Methods 关于自适应调查设计概念和方法的多源扩展的一些开放性问题
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/0282423x241235270
Stephanie M. Coffey, Jaya Damineni, John Eltinge, Anup Mathur, Kayla Varela, Allison Zotti
Adaptive survey design is a framework for making data-driven decisions about survey data collection operations. This article discusses open questions related to the extension of adaptive principles and capabilities when capturing data from multiple data sources. Here, the concept of “design” encompasses the focused allocation of resources required for the production of high-quality statistical information in a sustainable and cost-effective way. This conceptual framework leads to a discussion of six groups of issues including: (1) the goals for improvement through adaptation; (2) the design features that are available for adaptation; (3) the auxiliary data that may be available for informing adaptation; (4) the decision rules that could guide adaptation; (5) the necessary systems to operationalize adaptation; and (6) the quality, cost, and risk profiles of the proposed adaptations (and how to evaluate them). A multiple data source environment creates significant opportunities, but also introduces complexities that are a challenge in the production of high-quality statistical information.
自适应调查设计是一个就调查数据收集操作做出数据驱动决策的框架。本文讨论了在从多个数据源获取数据时,与扩展适应性原则和能力有关的开放性问题。在此,"设计 "的概念包括以可持续和具有成本效益的方式集中分配生产高质量统计信息所需的资源。这一概念框架引出了对六组问题的讨论,包括:(1) 通过适应性改进的目标;(2) 可用于适应性的设计特征;(3) 可用于为适应性提供信息的辅助数据;(4) 可指导适应性的决策规则;(5) 操作适应性的必要系统;(6) 拟议适应性的质量、成本和风险概况(以及如何对其进行评估)。多数据源环境创造了大量机会,但也带来了复杂性,这对高质量统计信息的制作是一个挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Small Area with Multiply Imputed Survey Data 采用乘法推算调查数据的小地区
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0024
Marina Runge, Timo Schmid
In this article, we propose a framework for small area estimation with multiply imputed survey data. Many statistical surveys suffer from (a) high nonresponse rates due to sensitive questions and response burden and (b) too small sample sizes to allow for reliable estimates on (unplanned) disaggregated levels due to budget constraints. One way to deal with missing values is to replace them by several plausible/imputed values based on a model. Small area estimation, such as the model by Fay and Herriot, is applied to estimate regionally disaggregated indicators when direct estimates are imprecise. The framework presented tackles simultaneously multiply imputed values and imprecise direct estimates. In particular, we extend the general class of transformed Fay-Herriot models to account for the additional uncertainty from multiple imputation. We derive three special cases of the Fay-Herriot model with particular transformations and provide point and mean squared error estimators. Depending on the case, the mean squared error is estimated by analytic solutions or resampling methods. Comprehensive simulations in a controlled environment show that the proposed methodology leads to reliable and precise results in terms of bias and mean squared error. The methodology is illustrated by a real data example using European wealth data.
在本文中,我们提出了一个利用多重估算调查数据进行小范围估算的框架。许多统计调查都存在以下问题:(a) 由于问题敏感和回复负担,无回复率较高;(b) 由于预算限制,样本量太小,无法对(计划外)分类水平进行可靠估算。处理缺失值的一种方法是根据模型用几个可信的/估计的值来代替。当直接估算不精确时,可采用小区域估算,如 Fay 和 Herriot 的模型,来估算按区域分列的指标。本文提出的框架可同时处理多重估算值和不精确的直接估算值。特别是,我们扩展了费-赫里奥特转换模型的一般类别,以考虑多重估算带来的额外不确定性。我们推导出 Fay-Herriot 模型的三种特殊转换情况,并提供了点误差和均方误差估计值。根据不同的情况,均方误差是通过解析解或重采样方法估算出来的。在受控环境中进行的综合模拟表明,所提出的方法在偏差和均方误差方面能得出可靠而精确的结果。该方法通过一个使用欧洲财富数据的真实数据实例进行了说明。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Sampling Variance Smoothing Methods for Small Area Proportion Estimation 抽样方差平滑法在小面积比例估算中的应用
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0026
Yong You, Mike Hidiroglou
Sampling variance smoothing is an important topic in small area estimation. In this article, we propose sampling variance smoothing methods for small area proportion estimation. In particular, we consider the generalized variance function and design effect methods for sampling variance smoothing. We evaluate and compare the smoothed sampling variances and small area estimates based on the smoothed variance estimates through analysis of survey data from Statistics Canada. The results from real data analysis and simulation study indicate that the proposed sampling variance smoothing methods perform very well for small area estimation.
抽样方差平滑是小面积估计中的一个重要课题。本文提出了用于小面积比例估计的抽样方差平滑方法。其中,我们考虑了抽样方差平滑的广义方差函数和设计效应方法。我们通过分析加拿大统计局的调查数据,评估和比较了平滑抽样方差和基于平滑方差估计的小面积估计。真实数据分析和模拟研究的结果表明,所提出的抽样方差平滑方法在小面积估计方面表现非常出色。
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引用次数: 0
Temporally Consistent Present Population from Mobile Network Signaling Data for Official Statistics 从移动网络信令数据中获取时间一致的现存人口,用于官方统计
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0025
Milena Suarez Castillo, Francois Sémécurbe, Cezary Ziemlicki, Haixuan Xavier Tao, Tom Seimandi
Mobile network data records are promising for measuring temporal changes in present populations. This promise has been boosted since high-frequency passively-collected signaling data became available. Its temporal event rate is considerably higher than that of Call Detail Records – on which most of the previous literature is based. Yet, we show it remains a challenge to produce statistics consistent over time, robust to changes in the “measuring instruments” and conveying spatial uncertainty to the end user. In this article, we propose a methodology to estimate – consistently over several months – hourly population presence over France based on signaling data spatially merged with fine-grained official population counts. We draw particular attention to consistency at several spatial scales and over time and to spatial mapping reflecting spatial accuracy. We compare the results with external references and discuss the challenges which remain. We argue data fusion approaches between fine-grained official statistics data sets and mobile network data, spatially merged to preserve privacy, are promising for future methodologies.
移动网络数据记录在测量当前种群的时间变化方面大有可为。自从有了高频被动收集的信令数据后,这一前景更加广阔。其时间事件发生率大大高于呼叫详情记录,而之前的大部分文献都是以呼叫详情记录为基础的。然而,我们发现,要生成长期一致的统计数据,不受 "测量工具 "变化的影响,并向最终用户传达空间不确定性,仍然是一项挑战。在这篇文章中,我们提出了一种方法,根据信号数据与精细的官方人口统计数据在空间上的合并,估算出几个月内法国每小时的人口数量。我们特别关注多个空间尺度和时间上的一致性,以及反映空间精度的空间映射。我们将结果与外部参考资料进行了比较,并讨论了仍然存在的挑战。我们认为,在细粒度官方统计数据集和移动网络数据之间进行数据融合的方法,在空间上进行合并以保护隐私,是未来很有前途的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Small Area Estimates of Poverty Incidence in Costa Rica under a Structure Preserving Estimation (SPREE) Approach 采用结构保持估算(SPREE)方法对哥斯达黎加贫困发生率进行小地区估算
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0021
Alejandra Arias-Salazar
Obtaining reliable estimates in small areas is a challenge because of the coverage and periodicity of data collection. Several techniques of small area estimation have been proposed to produce quality measures in small areas, but few of them are focused on updating these estimates. By combining the attributes of the most recent versions of the structure-preserving estimation methods, this article proposes a new alternative to estimate and update cross-classified counts for small domains, when the variable of interest is not available in the census. The proposed methodology is used to obtain and up-date estimates of the incidence of poverty in 81 Costa Rican cantons for six postcensal years (2012–2017). As uncertainty measures, mean squared errors are estimated via parametric bootstrap, and the adequacy of the proposed method is assessed with a design-based simulation.
由于数据收集的覆盖面和周期性,在小地区获得可靠的估计值是一项挑战。目前已提出了几种小区域估算技术,用于生成小区域的质量度量,但其中很少有技术侧重于更新这些估算值。通过结合最新版本的结构保持估算方法的属性,本文提出了一种新的替代方法,用于在普查中没有相关变量时估算和更新小地区的交叉分类计数。所提出的方法被用于获取和更新哥斯达黎加 81 个县在普查后六年(2012-2017 年)的贫困发生率估计值。作为不确定性度量,通过参数自举法估算了均方误差,并通过基于设计的模拟评估了拟议方法的适当性。
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引用次数: 0
Block Weighted Least Squares Estimation for Nonlinear Cost-based Split Questionnaire Design 基于成本的非线性拆分问卷设计的分块加权最小二乘法估计
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0022
Yang Li, Le Qi, Yichen Qin, Cunjie Lin, Yuhong Yang
In this study, we advocate a two-stage framework to deal with the issues encountered in surveys with long questionnaires. In Stage I, we propose a split questionnaire design (SQD) developed by minimizing a quadratic cost function while achieving reliability constraints on estimates of means, which effectively reduces the survey cost, alleviates the burden on the respondents, and potentially improves data quality. In Stage II, we develop a block weighted least squares (BWLS) estimator of linear regression coefficients that can be used with data obtained from the SQD obtained in Stage I. Numerical studies comparing existing methods strongly favor the proposed estimator in terms of prediction and estimation accuracy. Using the European Social Survey (ESS) data, we demonstrate that the proposed SQD can substantially reduce the survey cost and the number of questions answered by each respondent, and the proposed estimator is much more interpretable and efficient than present alternatives for the SQD data.
在本研究中,我们主张采用两阶段框架来处理长问卷调查中遇到的问题。在第一阶段,我们提出了一种拆分问卷设计(SQD),通过最小化二次成本函数,同时实现对均值估计的可靠性约束,有效降低了调查成本,减轻了受访者的负担,并有可能提高数据质量。在第二阶段,我们开发了线性回归系数的分块加权最小二乘法(BWLS)估计器,该估计器可用于第一阶段获得的 SQD 数据。通过使用欧洲社会调查(ESS)数据,我们证明了建议的 SQD 可以大大降低调查成本和每个受访者回答问题的数量,而且建议的估计器在 SQD 数据方面比现有的替代方法更具可解释性和效率。
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引用次数: 0
Answering Current Challenges of and Changes in Producing Official Time Use Statistics Using the Data Collection Platform MOTUS 利用数据收集平台 MOTUS 回答当前编制官方时间使用统计数据的挑战和变化
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0023
Joeri Minnen, Sven Rymenants, Ignace Glorieux, Theun Pieter van Tienoven
The modernization of the production of official statistics faces challenges related to technological developments, budget cuts, and growing privacy concerns. At the same time, there is a need for shareable and scalable platforms to support comparable data, leading to several online data collection strategies being rolled out. Time Use Surveys (TUS) are particularly affected by these challenges and needs as they (while producing rich data) are complex, time-intensive studies (because they include multiple tasks and are administered at the household level). This article introduces the Modular Online Time Use Survey (MOTUS) data collection platform and explains how it accommodates the challenges of and changes in the production of a TUS that is carried out in line with the Harmonized European Time Use Survey guidelines. It argues that MOTUS supports a shift in the methodological paradigm of conducting TUS by being timelier and more cost efficient, by lowering respondent burden, and by improving the reliability of the data collected. Importantly, the modular structure allows MOTUS to be easily deployed for various TUS configurations. Moreover, this versatile structure allows comparable, complex diary surveys (such as the household budget survey) to be performed on the same platform and with the same applications.
官方统计数据编制工作的现代化面临着与技术发展、预算削减和日益增长的隐私关切有关的挑战。与此同时,还需要可共享和可扩展的平台来支持可比数据,因此推出了若干在线数据收集战略。时间利用调查(TUS)尤其受到这些挑战和需求的影响,因为它们(在产生丰富数据的同时)是复杂的时间密集型研究(因为它们包括多项任务,并在家庭层面进行管理)。本文介绍了模块化在线时间使用情况调查(MOTUS)数据收集平台,并解释了该平台如何应对根据欧洲时间使用情况统一调查指南开展的时间使用情况调查所带来的挑战和变化。报告认为,MOTUS 通过更及时、更具成本效益、减轻受访者负担和提高所收集数据的可靠性,支持了时间使用调查方法范式的转变。重要的是,模块化结构使 MOTUS 能够方便地用于各种 TUS 配置。此外,这种多功能结构还允许在同一平台上使用相同的应用程序进行可比的复杂日记调查(如家庭预算调查)。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Official Statistics
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