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A Note on the Optimum Allocation of Resources to Follow up Unit Nonrespondents in Probability Surveys 关于概率调查中后续单位非应答者资源优化配置的一点注记
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0020
Siu-Ming Tam, A. Holmberg, Summer Wang
Abstract Common practice to address nonresponse in probability surveys in National Statistical Offices is to follow up every non respondent with a view to lifting response rates. As response rate is an insufficient indicator of data quality, it is argued that one should follow up non respondents with a view to reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of the estimator of the variable of interest. In this article, we propose a method to allocate the nonresponse follow-up resources in such a way as to minimise the MSE under a quasi-randomisation framework. An example to illustrate the method using the 2018/19 Rural Environment and Agricultural Commodities Survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is provided.
在国家统计局进行的概率调查中,解决无应答问题的通常做法是跟踪每一个无应答者,以期提高应答率。由于回复率是数据质量的一个不足的指标,有人认为应该跟踪非受访者,以减少感兴趣变量的估计量的均方误差(MSE)。在本文中,我们提出了一种在准随机化框架下以最小化MSE的方式分配非响应跟踪资源的方法。本文以澳大利亚统计局2018/19年度农村环境与农产品调查为例说明了该方法。
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引用次数: 0
Design and Sample Size Determination for Experiments on Nonresponse Followup using a Sequential Regression Model 使用序列回归模型的无反应随访实验的设计和样本量确定
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0009
Andrew M. Raim, T. Mathew, Kimberly F. Sellers, Renée Ellis, Mikelyn Meyers
Abstract Statistical agencies depend on responses to inquiries made to the public, and occasionally conduct experiments to improve contact procedures. Agencies may wish to assess whether there is significant change in response rates due to an operational refinement. This work considers the assessment of response rates when up to L attempts are made to contact each subject, and subjects receive one of J possible variations of the operation under experimentation. In particular, the continuation-ratio logit (CRL) model facilitates inference on the probability of success at each step of the sequence, given that failures occurred at previous attempts. The CRL model is investigated as a basis for sample size determination– one of the major decisions faced by an experimenter–to attain a desired power under a Wald test of a general linear hypothesis. An experiment that was conducted for nonresponse followup in the United States 2020 decennial census provides a motivating illustration.
统计机构依赖于对公众询问的回应,偶尔会进行实验以改进联系程序。各机构不妨评估,由于业务改进,答复率是否发生了重大变化。这项工作考虑了在与每个受试者进行多达L次接触的情况下对反应率的评估,受试者在实验中接受J种可能的操作变化之一。特别是,连续比logit (CRL)模型有助于推断序列中每一步成功的概率,假设之前的尝试失败。CRL模型被研究作为样本大小确定的基础——在一般线性假设的Wald检验下获得期望的功率,这是实验者面临的主要决策之一。在美国2020年十年一次的人口普查中进行的一项无反应随访实验提供了一个鼓舞人心的例子。
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引用次数: 0
From Quarterly to Monthly Turnover Figures Using Nowcasting Methods 从使用临近预报方法的季度到月度营业额数据
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0012
Daan B. Zult, Sabine Krieg, B. Schouten, P. Ouwehand, Jan van den Brakel
Abstract Short-term business statistics at Statistics Netherlands are largely based on Value Added Tax (VAT) administrations. Companies may decide to file their tax return on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Most companies file their tax return quarterly. So far, these VAT based short-term business statistics are published with a quarterly frequency as well. In this article we compare different methods to compile monthly figures, even though a major part of these data is observed quarterly. The methods considered to produce a monthly indicator must address two issues. The first issue is to combine a high- and low-frequency series into a single high-frequency series, while both series measure the same phenomenon of the target population. The appropriate method that is designed for this purpose is usually referred to as “benchmarking”. The second issue is a missing data problem, because the first and second month of a quarter are published before the corresponding quarterly data is available. A “nowcast” method can be used to estimate these months. The literature on mixed frequency models provides solutions for both problems, sometimes by dealing with them simultaneously. In this article we combine different benchmarking and nowcasting models and evaluate combinations. Our evaluation distinguishes between relatively stable periods and periods during and after a crisis because different approaches might be optimal under these two conditions. We find that during stable periods the so-called Bridge models perform slightly better than the alternatives considered. Until about fifteen months after a crisis, the models that rely heavier on historic patterns such as the Bridge, MIDAS and structural time series models are outperformed by more straightforward (S)ARIMA approaches.
荷兰统计局的短期商业统计主要基于增值税(VAT)管理。公司可以决定按月、季度或年度提交纳税申报表。大多数公司每季度提交一次纳税申报表。到目前为止,这些基于增值税的短期业务统计数据也是按季度发布的。在本文中,我们比较了编制月度数据的不同方法,尽管这些数据的主要部分是按季度观察的。考虑编制月度指标的方法必须解决两个问题。第一个问题是将一个高、低频序列合并为一个单一的高频序列,而这两个序列测量的是目标人群的同一现象。为此目的而设计的适当方法通常称为“基准测试”。第二个问题是缺少数据的问题,因为一个季度的第一个月和第二个月是在相应的季度数据可用之前发布的。一种“临近预报”的方法可以用来估计这些月份。关于混合频率模型的文献为这两个问题提供了解决方案,有时是同时处理它们。在本文中,我们将不同的基准和临近预测模型结合起来,并对组合进行评估。我们的评估区分了相对稳定的时期和危机中和危机后的时期,因为在这两种情况下,不同的方法可能是最佳的。我们发现,在稳定时期,所谓的桥模型的表现略好于所考虑的替代方案。直到危机发生15个月后,更依赖于历史模式的模型,如桥模型、MIDAS模型和结构时间序列模型的表现都优于更直接的ARIMA方法。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Intra-Regional Inequality with an Application to German Spatial Planning Regions 区域内不平等估计及其在德国空间规划区域中的应用
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0010
Marina Runge
Abstract Income inequality is a persistent topic of public and political debate. In this context, the focus often shifts from the national level to a more detailed geographical level. In particular, inequality between or within local communities can be assessed. In this article, the estimation of inequality within regions, that is, between households, is considered at a regionally disaggregated level. From a methodological point of view, a small area estimation of the Gini coefficient is carried out using an area-level model linking survey data with related administrative data. Specifically, the Fay-Herriot model is applied using a logit-transformation followed by a bias-corrected back-transformation. The uncertainty of the point estimate is assessed using a parametric bootstrap procedure to estimate the mean squared error. The validity of the methodology is shown in a model-based simulation for the point estimator as well as for the uncertainty measure. The proposed methodology is illustrated by estimating model-based Gini coefficients for spatial planning regions in Germany, using survey data from the Socio-Economic Panel and aggregate data from the 2011 Census. The results show that intra-regional inequality is more diverse than a consideration only between East and West suggests.
摘要收入不平等一直是公众和政治辩论的主题。在这种情况下,重点往往从国家一级转移到更详细的地理一级。特别是,可以评估当地社区之间或内部的不平等。在这篇文章中,对地区内,即家庭之间不平等的估计是在按地区分类的层面上考虑的。从方法的角度来看,基尼系数的小面积估计是使用将调查数据与相关行政数据联系起来的地区一级模型进行的。具体来说,Fay-Herriot模型是使用logit变换和偏差校正后的反向变换来应用的。使用参数自举程序来估计均方误差,从而评估点估计的不确定性。该方法的有效性在点估计器和不确定性测量的基于模型的模拟中得到了证明。通过使用社会经济小组的调查数据和2011年人口普查的汇总数据,估计德国空间规划地区基于模型的基尼系数,说明了所提出的方法。研究结果表明,区域内的不平等比仅考虑东西方所表明的更为多样。
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引用次数: 0
Adjusting for Selection Bias in Nonprobability Samples by Empirical Likelihood Approach 用经验似然法调整非概率样本的选择偏差
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0008
Daniela Marella
Abstract Large amount of data are today available, that are easier and faster to collect than survey data, bringing new challenges. One of them is the nonprobability nature of these big data that may not represent the target population properly and hence result in highly biased estimators. In this article two approaches for dealing with selection bias when the selection process is nonignorable are discussed. The first one, based on the empirical likelihood, does not require parametric specification of the population model but the probability of being in the nonprobability sample needed to be modeled. Auxiliary information known for the population or estimable from a probability sample can be incorporated as calibration constraints, thus enhancing the precision of the estimators. The second one is a mixed approach based on mass imputation and propensity score adjustment requiring that the big data membership is known throughout a probability sample. Finally, two simulation experiments and an application to income data are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators in terms of robustness and efficiency.
摘要今天有大量的数据可用,比调查数据更容易、更快地收集,这带来了新的挑战。其中之一是这些大数据的不可能性,它们可能无法正确地代表目标人群,从而导致估计量存在高度偏差。本文讨论了在选择过程不可忽略的情况下处理选择偏差的两种方法。第一种基于经验似然性,不需要对总体模型进行参数化说明,而是需要对处于非概率样本中的概率进行建模。可以将总体已知的或可从概率样本估计的辅助信息作为校准约束,从而提高估计量的精度。第二种方法是基于大规模插补和倾向得分调整的混合方法,要求在整个概率样本中已知大数据隶属度。最后,进行了两个模拟实验并将其应用于收入数据,以评估所提出的估计器在稳健性和效率方面的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Constructing Building Price Index Using Administrative Data 利用行政数据构建建筑价格指数
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0011
Masahiro Higo, Yumi Saita, C. Shimizu, Yuta Tachi
Abstract Improving the accuracy of deflators is crucial for measuring real GDP and growth rates. However, construction prices are often difficult to measure. This study uses the stratification and hedonic methods to estimate price indices. The estimated indices are based on the actual transaction prices of buildings (contract prices) obtained from the Statistics on Building Starts survey information from the administrative sector in Japan. Compared with the construction cost deflator (CCD), calculated by compounding input costs, the estimated output price indices show higher rates of increase during the economic expansion phase after 2013. This suggests that the profit surge in the construction sector observed in that period is not fully reflected in the CCD. Furthermore, the difference between the two “output-type” indices obtained by stratification and hedonic methods shrinks when the estimation methods are precisely configured.
摘要提高平减指数的准确性对于衡量实际GDP和增长率至关重要。然而,建筑价格往往难以衡量。本研究采用分层和特征方法来估计价格指数。估计指数基于从日本行政部门的建筑开工统计调查信息中获得的建筑实际交易价格(合同价格)。与通过复合投入成本计算的建筑成本平减指数(CCD)相比,估计的产出价格指数在2013年后的经济扩张阶段显示出更高的增长率。这表明,在这一时期观察到的建筑业利润激增并没有完全反映在CCD中。此外,当精确配置估计方法时,通过分层和特征方法获得的两个“产出类型”指标之间的差异缩小。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Changing Modes on Item Nonresponse in Panel Surveys 小组调查中改变模式对项目无反应的影响
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0007
O. Lipps, M. Voorpostel, Gian-Andrea Monsch
Abstract To investigate the effect of a change from the telephone to the web mode on item nonresponse in panel surveys, we use experimental data from a two-wave panel survey. The treatment group changed from the telephone to the web mode after the first wave, while the control group continued in the telephone mode. We find that when changing to the web, “don’t know” answers increase moderately from a low level, while item refusal increases substantially from a very low level. This is the case for all person groups, although socio-demographic characteristics have some additional effects on giving a don’t know or a refusal when changing mode.
摘要为了研究从电话模式到网络模式的改变对小组调查中项目无反应的影响,我们使用了两波小组调查的实验数据。治疗组在第一波之后从电话模式变为网络模式,而对照组继续处于电话模式。我们发现,当切换到网络时,“不知道”的答案从较低水平适度增加,而拒绝物品的情况从极低水平大幅增加。所有人的群体都是这样,尽管社会人口统计特征对改变模式时给出不知道或拒绝有一些额外的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Statistical Comparison of Call Volume Uniformity Due to Mailing Strategy 基于邮寄策略的呼叫量一致性的统计比较
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0005
Andrew M. Raim, E. Nichols, T. Mathew
Abstract For operations such as a decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau sends mail to potential respondents inviting a self-response. It is suspected that the mailing strategy affects the distribution of call volumes to the U.S. Census Bureau's telephone helplines. For staffing purposes, more uniform call volumes throughout the week are desirable. In this work, we formulate tests and confidence intervals to compare uniformity of call volumes resulting from competing mailing strategies. Regarding the data as multinomial observations, we compare pairs of call volume observations to determine whether one mailing strategy has multinomial cell probabilities closer to the uniform probability vector compared to another strategy. A motivating illustration is provided by call volume data recorded in three studies which were carried out in advance of the 2020 Decennial Census.
对于十年一次的人口普查,美国人口普查局会向潜在的受访者发送邮件,邀请他们做出自我回应。人们怀疑邮寄策略影响了美国人口普查局电话求助热线的电话数量分布。为了人员配置的目的,最好在一周内更统一的电话数量。在这项工作中,我们制定了测试和置信区间来比较由竞争邮件策略引起的呼叫量的一致性。将数据作为多项观测值,我们比较呼叫量观测值对,以确定与另一种策略相比,一种邮件策略是否具有更接近均匀概率向量的多项单元概率。在2020年十年一次人口普查之前进行的三项研究中记录的通话量数据提供了一个鼓舞人心的说明。
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引用次数: 0
A Two-Stage Bennet Decomposition of the Change in the Weighted Arithmetic Mean 加权算术平均值变化的两阶段Bennet分解
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0006
Thomas von Brasch, Håkon S. Grini, Magnus Berglund Johnsen, T. Vigtel
Abstract The weighted arithmetic mean is used in a wide variety of applications. An infinite number of possible decompositions of the change in the weighted mean are available, and it is therefore an open question which of the possible decompositions should be applied. In this article, we derive a decomposition of the change in the weighted mean based on a two-stage Bennet decomposition. Our proposed decomposition is easy to employ and interpret, and we show that it satisfies the difference counterpart to the index number time reversal test. We illustrate the framework by decomposing aggregate earnings growth from 2020Q4 to 2021Q4 in Norway and compare it with some of the main decompositions proposed in the literature. We find that the wedge between the identified compositional effects from the proposed two-stage Bennet decomposition and the one-stage Bennet decomposition is substantial, and for some industries, the compositional effects have opposite signs.
摘要加权算术平均值的应用十分广泛。对于加权平均值的变化,有无数种可能的分解方法,因此,应该应用哪一种可能的分解方法是一个悬而未决的问题。在本文中,我们推导了基于两阶段Bennet分解的加权平均值变化的分解。我们提出的分解易于使用和解释,并且我们证明它满足索引数时间反转检验的差异对应项。我们通过分解挪威从2020Q4到2021Q4的总收入增长来说明该框架,并将其与文献中提出的一些主要分解进行比较。我们发现,从两阶段Bennet分解和一阶段Bennet分解中识别的构成效应之间存在很大的楔子,并且对于某些行业,构成效应具有相反的迹象。
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引用次数: 0
Using Eye-Tracking Methodology to Study Grid Question Designs in Web Surveys 用眼动追踪方法研究网络调查中的网格问题设计
IF 1.1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0004
C. Neuert, Joss Roßmann, Henning Silber
Abstract Grid questions are frequently employed in web surveys due to their assumed response efficiency. In line with this, many previous studies have found shorter response times for grid questions compared to item-by-item formats. Our contribution to this literature is to investigate how altering the question format affects response behavior and the depth of cognitive processing when answering both grid question and item-by-item formats. To answer these questions, we implemented an experiment with three questions in an eye-tracking study. Each question consisted of a set of ten items which respondents answered either on a single page (large grid), on two pages with five items each (small grid), or on ten separate pages (item-by-item). We did not find substantial differences in cognitive processing overall, while the processing of the question stem and the response scale labels was significantly higher for the item-by-item design than for the large grid in all three questions. We, however, found that when answering an item in a grid question, respondents often refer to surrounding items when making a judgement. We discuss the findings and limitations of our study and provide suggestions for practical design decisions.
摘要网格问题由于其假定的响应效率而经常在网络调查中使用。与此相一致,许多先前的研究发现,与逐项格式相比,网格问题的回答时间更短。我们对这篇文献的贡献是研究在回答网格问题和逐项格式时,改变问题格式如何影响反应行为和认知处理的深度。为了回答这些问题,我们在眼动追踪研究中用三个问题进行了实验。每个问题由十个项目组成,受访者在一页(大网格)、两页(每个五个项目)或十页(逐项)上回答。总体而言,我们没有发现认知处理的实质性差异,而在所有三个问题中,逐项设计的题干和回答量表标签的处理明显高于大网格。然而,我们发现,在回答网格问题中的一个项目时,受访者在做出判断时经常会参考周围的项目。我们讨论了我们研究的发现和局限性,并为实际的设计决策提供了建议。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Official Statistics
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