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A REFINED LAPLACE-CARSON TRANSFORM APPROACH TO VALUING CONVERTIBLE BONDS 对可转换债券进行估值的一种改进的拉普拉斯-卡森变换方法
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.50
Toshikazu Kimura
This paper deals with a refinement of the Laplace-Carson transform (LCT) approach to option pricing, with a special emphasis on valuing defaultable and non-callable convertible bonds (CBs), but not limited to it. What we are actually aiming at is refining the plain LCT approach to meet possibly general American derivatives. The setup is a standard Black-Scholes-Merton framework where the underlying firm value evolves according to a geometric Brownian motion. The valuation of CBs can be formulated as an optimal stopping problem, due to the possibility of voluntary conversion prior to maturity. We begin with the plain LCT approach that generates a complex solution with little prospect of further analysis. To improve this solution, we introduce the notion of premium decomposition, which separates the CB value into the associated European CB value and an early conversion premium. By the LCT approach combined with the premium decomposition, we obtain a much simpler and closed-form solution for the CB value and an optimal conversion boundary. By virtue of the simplified solution, we can easily characterize asymptotic properties of the early conversion boundary. Finally, we show that our refined LCT approach is broadly applicable to a more general class of claims with optimal stopping structure.
本文讨论了拉普拉斯-卡森变换(LCT)期权定价方法的改进,特别强调了可违约和不可赎回的可转换债券(CBs)的定价,但不仅限于此。我们的实际目标是改进普通的LCT方法,以满足可能的一般美国衍生品。其设置是一个标准的Black-Scholes-Merton框架,其中潜在的企业价值根据几何布朗运动演变。由于有可能在到期之前自愿转换,因此可将债券的估值表述为最优停止问题。我们从简单的LCT方法开始,它生成一个复杂的解决方案,几乎没有进一步分析的前景。为了改进该解决方案,我们引入了溢价分解的概念,将CB值分离为相关的欧洲CB值和早期转换溢价。通过LCT方法与溢价分解相结合,我们得到了CB值的一个更简单的封闭解和一个最优转换边界。利用简化解,我们可以很容易地表征早期转换边界的渐近性质。最后,我们证明了我们的改进LCT方法广泛适用于具有最优停止结构的更一般的索赔类别。
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引用次数: 0
PREFACE TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON MATHEMATICAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY 不确定条件下数学决策专刊前言
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/jorsj.60.43
K. Ano, Yukihiro Maruyama
This special issue on Mathematical Decision Making under Uncertainty was planed by the official research group “Stochastic Model and its Application (SMA)” in Operations Research Society of Japan and the research group “Dynamic Programming (DP)” in Kyushu District in Japan. SMA is well-known as “DP Bukai” in Japanese which has over 40 years history and so is one of the most historical research groups in Operations Research Society of Japan. SMA and DP have collaborated for many years. Our research interest is in such areas as Stochastic Optimization, Dynamic Programming, Markov Decision Process, Sequential Statistical Decision, Optimal Stopping, Game Theory, Fuzzy Theory, Financial Engineering, Operations Research in Sports and so on. Workshop on Mathematical Models of Decision Making under Uncertainty, which has been organized by our two research groups every year, was held in Research Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Kyoto University, on November 11-13, 2015. Invited sessions are organized by our research groups at both 20th Conference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies held in Barcelona, on June 13-18, 2014, and at 27th European Conference on Operational Research held in Glasgow, on July 12-15, 2015. Based on not only the research results presented at these three nice occasions but also the latest achievements by non-participants of the conference, we planned to edit the special issue on Mathematical Decision Making under Uncertainty. We received many well-prepared and high quality submissions by February 27, 2016, and spent almost one year to complete our editing task. In accordance with the journal’s review discipline, each submission was reviewed by two referees without conflict to the authors. We regret to mention that we had to reject some good papers because of our tight review schedule. The guest editors are pleased to publish this special issue on the most recent research results in mathematical decision making. Finally, we thank the former editor-in-chief, Dr. Shinji Mizuno, and the present editor-in-chief, Dr. Tetsuya Takine, for their helpful support and comments.
本期《不确定条件下的数学决策》特刊由日本运筹学学会官方课题组“随机模型及其应用(SMA)”和日本九州区课题组“动态规划(DP)”共同策划。SMA在日语中被称为“DP Bukai”,已有40多年的历史,是日本运筹学界最具历史意义的研究团体之一。SMA和DP合作多年。我们的研究兴趣是随机优化、动态规划、马尔可夫决策过程、序列统计决策、最优停止、博弈论、模糊理论、金融工程、体育运筹学等领域,于2015年11月11日至13日在京都大学数学科学研究所举行。我们的研究小组分别于2014年6月13日至18日在巴塞罗那举行的国际运筹学联合会第20届会议和2015年7月12日至15日在格拉斯哥举行的第27届欧洲运筹学会议上组织了邀请会议。根据这三次会议上的研究成果,以及非与会者的最新成果,我们计划编辑《不确定性下的数学决策》特刊。截至2016年2月27日,我们收到了许多准备充分、高质量的投稿,并花了近一年的时间完成了我们的编辑任务。根据该杂志的评审规则,每一份投稿都由两名评审员进行评审,与作者没有冲突。我们很遗憾地提到,由于审查时间紧迫,我们不得不拒绝一些好论文。客座编辑很高兴出版这期关于数学决策最新研究成果的特刊。最后,我们感谢前任总编辑水野真司博士和现任总编辑德井哲也博士给予的有益支持和意见。
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引用次数: 0
DYNAMIC DUALIZATION IN A GENERAL SETTING 一般环境下的动态对偶
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.44
H. Kawasaki
Recently, Iwamoto, Kimura, and Ueno proposed dynamic dualization to present dual problems for unconstrained optimization problems whose objective function is a sum of squares. The aim of this paper is to show that dynamic dualization works well for unconstrained problems whose objective function is a sum of convex functions. Further we give another way to get dual problems, which is based on the infimal convolution. In both approaches we make clear the assumption for duality to hold.
最近,Iwamoto、Kimura和Ueno提出了动态对偶化,以给出目标函数为平方和的无约束优化问题的对偶问题。本文的目的是证明动态对偶对于目标函数为凸函数之和的无约束问题是有效的。进一步给出了对偶问题的另一种求解方法,它是基于内积卷积的。在这两种方法中,我们都明确了对偶成立的假设。
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引用次数: 0
SECURITY GAMES TAKING ACCOUNT OF INVASION ROUTES AND ATTRITION 考虑入侵路线和消耗的安全游戏
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.156
Ryusuke Hohzaki, Ginjiro Sakai
This paper deals with security games which would be found around our lives. In a facility represented by a network, several types of invaders/attackers conflict with security guards/defenders who have also several security teams. The attacker chooses an invasion path to move along. He incurs some attrition by the conflict on arcs but surviving attackers give damage to the facility on his invasion route while the defender tries to minimize the damage by intercepting the attacker by a limited number of guards. The defender takes a randomized plan with respect to the adoption of each security team and the deployment of guards. Since the attacker know the defender’s randomized plan before his decision making, the security problem is modeled by a Stackelberg game with the superiority of the attacker on information acquisition to the defender. There has been no research on the security game with multiple types of players modeled on a network, which explicitly takes account attrition on players. By some numerical examples, we investigate the best configuration of staff numbers in security teams and some characteristics of optimal defense to mitigate the damage caused by the attackers.
本文讨论了我们生活中的安全游戏。在以网络为代表的设施中,几种类型的入侵者/攻击者与拥有多个安全团队的保安/防御者发生冲突。攻击者选择一条入侵路径。他在弧线上的冲突造成了一些消耗,但幸存的攻击者对其入侵路线上的设施造成了破坏,而防御者则试图通过有限数量的警卫拦截攻击者来将破坏降至最低。辩护人对每个安保团队的采用和警卫的部署采取了随机计划。由于攻击者在做出决策之前就知道防御者的随机计划,因此安全问题由Stackelberg博弈建模,攻击者在信息获取方面优于防御者。目前还没有研究在网络上模拟多种类型玩家的安全游戏,该游戏明确考虑了玩家的消耗。通过一些算例,我们研究了安全团队中人员数量的最佳配置以及为减轻攻击者造成的伤害而进行的最优防御的一些特征。
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引用次数: 3
EQUIVALENCE OF PARTICLE SURVIVAL MODEL AND RECORD VALUE PROCESS, AND ITS NEW APPLICATION TO LIMIT ORDER BOOKS 粒子生存模型与记录值过程的等价性及其在限制订单簿中的新应用
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.101
H. Toyoizumi
The particle survival model, which was originally proposed to analyze the dynamics of species’ coexistence, has surprisingly found to be related to a non-homogeneous Poisson process. It is also well known that successive record values of independent and identically distributed sequences have the spatial distribution of such processes. In this paper, we show that the particle survival model and the record value process are indeed equivalent. Further, we study their application to determine the optimal strategy for placing selling orders on stock exchange limit order books. Our approach considers the limit orders as particles, and assumes that the other traders have zero intelligence.
粒子生存模型最初是为了分析物种共存的动力学而提出的,但令人惊讶的是,它与非齐次泊松过程有关。众所周知,独立和同分布序列的连续记录值具有这种过程的空间分布。在本文中,我们证明了粒子生存模型和记录值过程确实是等价的。此外,我们研究了它们在确定在证券交易所限价订单簿上下销售订单的最佳策略方面的应用。我们的方法将限价单视为粒子,并假设其他交易员的智力为零。
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引用次数: 0
FUZZY DISTANCE AND FUZZY NORM 模糊距离与模糊范数
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.66
Masamichi Kon
We consider fuzzy sets on a metric, vector, or normed space. It is not assumed that the fuzzy sets have compact supports. In the present paper, a fuzzy distance and a fuzzy norm are proposed in order to measure the difference between two fuzzy sets, and their fundamental properties are investigated. Their definitions are based on Zadeh’s extension principle. Although they are different from the classical ones based on the Hausdorff metric, they are suitable for data containing uncertainty or vagueness. The obtained results can be expected to be useful for analyzing such data when the data are represented as fuzzy sets.
我们考虑度量、向量或赋范空间上的模糊集。不假定模糊集具有紧支撑。本文提出了一个模糊距离和一个模糊范数来度量两个模糊集之间的差,并研究了它们的基本性质。它们的定义是基于Zadeh的可拓原理。尽管它们不同于基于豪斯多夫度量的经典度量,但它们适用于包含不确定性或模糊性的数据。当数据被表示为模糊集时,所获得的结果可以被期望用于分析这样的数据。
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引用次数: 0
QUADRATIC OPTIMIZATION UNDER SEMI-FIBONACCI CONSTRAINT (II) 半FIBONACCI约束下的二次优化(II)
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.78
Y. Kimura, Seiichi Iwamoto
It is shown that the Fibonacci sequence is optimal for two quadratic programming problems (maximization and minimization) under semi-Fibonacci constraints. The two conditional (primal) problems have their unconditional (dual) problems. The optimal solution is characterized by the Fibonacci number. Both pairs of primal and dual problems are mutually derived through three methods — dynamic, plus-minus and inequality —.
结果表明,在半斐波那契约束下,斐波那奇序列对于两个二次规划问题(最大化和最小化)是最优的。两个条件(原始)问题都有它们的无条件(对偶)问题。最优解的特征是斐波那契数。原始问题和对偶问题都是通过三种方法相互推导出来的——动态、加减法和不等式。
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引用次数: 0
SUPER-STRONG REPRESENTATION THEOREMS FOR NONDETERMINISTIC SEQUENTIAL DECISION PROCESSES 非确定性序列决策过程的超强表示定理
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.136
Yukihiro Maruyama
This paper studies the relation between a given nondeterministic discrete decision process (ndddp) and a nondeterministic sequential decision process (nd-sdp), which is a finite nondeterministic automaton with a cost function, and its subclasses (nd-msdp, nd-pmsdp, nd-smsdp). We show super-strong representation theorems for nd-sdp and its subclasses, for which the functional equations of nondeterministic dynamic programming are obtainable. The super-strong representation theorems provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the nd-sdp and its subclasses with the same set of feasible policies and the same cost value for every feasible policy as the given process nd-ddp.
本文研究了一个给定的不确定离散决策过程(ndddp)与一个不确定序列决策过程(nd sdp)及其子类(nd msdp,nd pmsdp,nd smsdp)之间的关系。给出了nd-sdp及其子类的超强表示定理,得到了不确定动态规划的函数方程。超强表示定理为具有与给定过程nd-ddp相同的可行策略集和每个可行策略的相同代价值的nd-sdp及其子类的存在提供了充要条件。
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引用次数: 0
THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF PROJECT RISK RESPONSES IN PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT 项目风险管理中项目风险响应的数学模型
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.192
H. Fukuda, H. Kuwano
Project risk is an uncertain event that causes positive or negative effects on the project objectives in relation to the cost, time, quality and so on to complete the project. Project risk management is the set of processes of identifying, analyzing and responding to project risks. For example, the project risk management includes the process of eliminating the project risks from the project to complete any activities in the project by the specified day. In terms of not only the risk but also the time, many researches have been done. Especially, as for the time, there are many researches on CPM and PERT, which use mathematical techniques. However, few researchers discuss the effectiveness of project risk responses to deal with project risks for making a success of the project. In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model of the project risk responses. And, with our proposing model, we show how to calculate the effectiveness of project risk responses quantitatively. Moreover, we can decide quantitatively which project risk response should be executed by the consequences of the above calculation.
项目风险是指对完成项目的成本、时间、质量等方面的项目目标产生积极或消极影响的不确定事件。项目风险管理是一套识别、分析和应对项目风险的过程。例如,项目风险管理包括从项目中消除项目风险以在指定日期前完成项目中的任何活动的过程。从风险和时间两个方面进行了大量的研究。特别是对于CPM和PERT的研究,在时间上,运用了数学技术。然而,很少有研究人员讨论项目风险应对措施对项目成功应对项目风险的有效性。在本文中,我们提出了一个新的项目风险响应数学模型。通过我们提出的模型,我们展示了如何定量计算项目风险响应的有效性。此外,我们可以通过上述计算的结果来定量地决定应该执行哪个项目的风险应对。
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引用次数: 1
CONTINUOUS-TIME DYNAMIC PRICING FOR STABILIZING STOCHASTIC DEMAND 稳定随机需求的连续时间动态定价
Q4 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.15807/JORSJ.60.178
Kimitoshi Sato, K. Sawaki
In this paper, we consider the pricing decision of a retailer who experiences peak demand for a product during a given time interval and wishes to stabilize the demand by adjusting the sales price. The stabilization of demand brings about desirable outcomes such as a reduction in the need for capacity investment and improves the production efficiency in the supply chain. We establish a continuous-time model to analyze the effect of dynamic pricing on peak demand. We find that a closed-form optimal pricing policy minimizes the difference between the actual demand and target level. It is shown that the dynamic pricing not only reduces peak demand but also mitigates fluctuations in the peak demand. Using electricity consumption data as a case study, we show that the proposed pricing policy is effective for reducing the mean peak demand compared to a constant pricing policy.
在本文中,我们考虑零售商的定价决策,该零售商在给定的时间间隔内经历了对产品的峰值需求,并希望通过调整销售价格来稳定需求。需求的稳定带来了理想的结果,例如减少了对产能投资的需求,并提高了供应链的生产效率。我们建立了一个连续时间模型来分析动态定价对峰值需求的影响。我们发现,封闭形式的最优定价策略使实际需求和目标水平之间的差异最小化。研究表明,动态定价不仅降低了峰值需求,而且缓解了峰值需求的波动。以用电量数据为例研究表明,与不变的定价政策相比,所提出的定价政策在降低平均峰值需求方面是有效的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan
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