Pub Date : 2023-11-22DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00998-7
S. D. Sanap, M. Mohapatra, D. R. Pattanaik, S. Sunitha Devi, Satendra Kumar, A. Kashyapi
The prolonged positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and associated quasi-stationary equivalent barotropic Euro-Atlantic blocking high (EABH) and the Siberian high (SH) existed during January 2020. The presence of the persistent quasi-stationary barotropic high resulted in higher (lower) than normal surface temperatures in most parts of northern (southern) Eurasia. The large-scale analysis suggests the detouring of the mid-latitudinal westerlies from EABH and the formation of the west–east trough from East Atlantic to Northwest Pacific across North Africa, the Middle East, North India and China. The convergence of the moisture and positive convection anomalies along the region of the trough is perceived from the analysis. In the backdrop of this large-scale circulation anomalies, higher than normal precipitation was received in most of the central and north Indian regions with thunderstorms/hailstorm events. The variations in the AO index (AOI) and EABH were found to be in concurrence with the precipitation anomalies over the Indian region. The detailed analysis of a selected thunderstorm/hailstorm case suggests that the lowering of the 0 °C isotherm due to the intrusion of mid-latitudinal westerlies and the development of atmospheric instability with moisture supply from the adjacent seas facilitated the occurrence of the thunderstorms/Hailstorm events during January 2020.
{"title":"Arctic–midlatitude–tropics interactions in January 2020: linkages to precipitation extremes over Indian region","authors":"S. D. Sanap, M. Mohapatra, D. R. Pattanaik, S. Sunitha Devi, Satendra Kumar, A. Kashyapi","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00998-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00998-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The prolonged positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and associated quasi-stationary equivalent barotropic Euro-Atlantic blocking high (EABH) and the Siberian high (SH) existed during January 2020. The presence of the persistent quasi-stationary barotropic high resulted in higher (lower) than normal surface temperatures in most parts of northern (southern) Eurasia. The large-scale analysis suggests the detouring of the mid-latitudinal westerlies from EABH and the formation of the west–east trough from East Atlantic to Northwest Pacific across North Africa, the Middle East, North India and China. The convergence of the moisture and positive convection anomalies along the region of the trough is perceived from the analysis. In the backdrop of this large-scale circulation anomalies, higher than normal precipitation was received in most of the central and north Indian regions with thunderstorms/hailstorm events. The variations in the AO index (AOI) and EABH were found to be in concurrence with the precipitation anomalies over the Indian region. The detailed analysis of a selected thunderstorm/hailstorm case suggests that the lowering of the 0 °C isotherm due to the intrusion of mid-latitudinal westerlies and the development of atmospheric instability with moisture supply from the adjacent seas facilitated the occurrence of the thunderstorms/Hailstorm events during January 2020.</p>","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-20DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00999-6
M. H. ElTaweel, S. C. Alfaro, G. Siour, A. Coman, S. M. Robaa, M. M. Abdel Wahab
This study focuses on the importance of reliable surface wind forecasts for various sectors, particularly energy production. Traditional numerical weather prediction models are facing limitations and increasing complexity, leading to the development of machine learning models as alternatives or supplements. The research consists of two stages. In the first stage, the ERA5 database is used to evaluate the long-term performance of different combinations of features and two tree-based algorithms for predicting surface wind characteristics (speed and direction) in Cairo. The XGBoost algorithm slightly outperforms the Random Forest algorithm, especially when combined with appropriate feature selection. Even three years after the training period, the results remain very good, with an RMSE of 0.59 m/s, rRMSE of 17%, and R2 of 0.84. The second stage assesses the multivariate approach's ability to forecast wind speed evolution at different time horizons (1–12 h) during a week characterized by significant wind dynamics. The forecasts demonstrate excellent agreement with observations at a 1-h time horizon, with an RMSE of 0.35 m/s, rRMSE of 7.6%, and R2 of 0.98, surpassing or comparable to other literature results. However, as the time lag increases, the RMSE (0.86, 1.14, and 1.51 m/s for 3, 6, and 12 h, respectively) and rRMSE (18.7%, 24.8%, and 32.9% for 3, 6, and 12 h, respectively) also increase, while R2 decreases (0.86, 0.79, and 0.60). Furthermore, the wind variations' amplitude is underestimated. To address this bias, a simple correction method is proposed.
{"title":"Prediction and forecast of surface wind using ML tree-based algorithms","authors":"M. H. ElTaweel, S. C. Alfaro, G. Siour, A. Coman, S. M. Robaa, M. M. Abdel Wahab","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00999-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00999-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study focuses on the importance of reliable surface wind forecasts for various sectors, particularly energy production. Traditional numerical weather prediction models are facing limitations and increasing complexity, leading to the development of machine learning models as alternatives or supplements. The research consists of two stages. In the first stage, the ERA5 database is used to evaluate the long-term performance of different combinations of features and two tree-based algorithms for predicting surface wind characteristics (speed and direction) in Cairo. The XGBoost algorithm slightly outperforms the Random Forest algorithm, especially when combined with appropriate feature selection. Even three years after the training period, the results remain very good, with an <i>RMSE</i> of 0.59 m/s, <i>rRMSE</i> of 17%, and <i>R</i><sup><i>2</i></sup> of 0.84. The second stage assesses the multivariate approach's ability to forecast wind speed evolution at different time horizons (1–12 h) during a week characterized by significant wind dynamics. The forecasts demonstrate excellent agreement with observations at a 1-h time horizon, with an <i>RMSE</i> of 0.35 m/s, <i>rRMSE</i> of 7.6%, and <i>R</i><sup><i>2</i></sup> of 0.98, surpassing or comparable to other literature results. However, as the time lag increases, the <i>RMSE</i> (0.86, 1.14, and 1.51 m/s for 3, 6, and 12 h, respectively) and <i>rRMSE</i> (18.7%, 24.8%, and 32.9% for 3, 6, and 12 h, respectively) also increase, while <i>R</i><sup><i>2</i></sup> decreases (0.86, 0.79, and 0.60). Furthermore, the wind variations' amplitude is underestimated. To address this bias, a simple correction method is proposed.</p>","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-10DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00994-x
Alugula Boyaj, Raghu Nadimpalli, DPranay Reddy, P. Sinha, N. R. Karrevula, Krishna K. Osuri, Akhil Srivastava, Madhusmita Swain, U. C. Mohanty, Sahidul Islam, Akshara Kaginalkar
{"title":"Role of radiation and canopy model in predicting heat waves using WRF over the city of Bhubaneswar, Odisha","authors":"Alugula Boyaj, Raghu Nadimpalli, DPranay Reddy, P. Sinha, N. R. Karrevula, Krishna K. Osuri, Akhil Srivastava, Madhusmita Swain, U. C. Mohanty, Sahidul Islam, Akshara Kaginalkar","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00994-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00994-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135136730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-07DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8
Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin
Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.
{"title":"Feasibility of forecasting convective rain by diagnosing intracloud lightning jumps","authors":"Jyh-Huei Tai, Wei-Kuo Soong, Pei-Hua Tan, Mark Yin-Mao Wang, Po-Hsiung Lin","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00997-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study conducted a comparison of the data quality of Earth Networks (EN) and Taiwan Power Company’s Total Lightning Detection System (TLDS) and evaluated the feasibility of using intracloud (IC) lightning to issue convective rain warnings. The results indicate uncertainties in the TLDS positioning of IC lightning. When forecasting convective rain on the basis of IC lightning jumps using EN data, the mean prefigurance and postagreement scores were 0.8 and 0.67, respectively, which were more favourable than the respective TLDS scores of 0.65 and 0.47. In regions with high TLDS positioning uncertainties, the use of EN data increased the number of prefigurance and postagreement hits in each analysis zone and raised the prefigurance and postagreement scores to 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. This indicates that analyses using EN data can reduce the risk of missed convective rain warnings when diagnosing IC jumps and can reduce the false alarm rate. In this study, IC jumps preceded convective rains by a maximum of 27.5–39.3 min on average in all analysis zones across Taiwan. The results suggest that diagnosing IC jumps to forecast convective rain is feasible, but until the uncertainties in the positioning of IC lightning using TLDSs have been remedied, EN data are the more suitable diagnostic choice.","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Variability in episodic precipitation concentration in the Asian megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh","authors":"Md Anarul Haque Mondol, Md Ashraful Habib, Faria Kabir, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, Md Zakiur Rahman, Mohammad Kamruzzaman, Ubaydur Rahaman Siddiki","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00995-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00995-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135818162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00996-9
S. V. Sunilkumar, Maria Emmanuel, M. Muhsin, P. R. Satheesh Chandran, A. Hemanth Kumar, Freddy P. Paul, K. Rajeev
{"title":"Origin and maintenance of upper tropospheric inversion over the northern Indian Ocean during boreal winter of 2018","authors":"S. V. Sunilkumar, Maria Emmanuel, M. Muhsin, P. R. Satheesh Chandran, A. Hemanth Kumar, Freddy P. Paul, K. Rajeev","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00996-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00996-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135818161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00993-y
Sonali Maurya, A. Chandrasekar, K. V. S. Namboodiri
{"title":"On the nature of drag coefficient over a tropical coastal station","authors":"Sonali Maurya, A. Chandrasekar, K. V. S. Namboodiri","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00993-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00993-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136023434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-27DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00992-z
E. K. Uzoma, M. O. Adeniyi, D. P. Keller, R. Séférian, E. O. Oladiran
{"title":"The impact of carbon dioxide removal on temperature parameters over West Africa","authors":"E. K. Uzoma, M. O. Adeniyi, D. P. Keller, R. Séférian, E. O. Oladiran","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00992-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00992-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136318311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-12DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00989-8
Yu Huang, Juan Li, Zhengkun Qin
Abstract Fengyun-3E is the first early-morning-orbit polar-orbiting satellite launched by China, which carries the third generation of Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS-3). This instrument has 17 channels and it can provide rich atmospheric temperature observation information at different altitudes. To explore the application value of the MWTS-3 data in assimilation, we selected Typhoon Chanthu in 2021 in this study to evaluate the effect of the MWTS-3 data assimilation on the forecasts of typhoons affecting China. The results show that the simultaneous assimilation of the conventional data and MWTS-3 data can effectively correct the westward error of the typhoon track forecasted by the experiments without assimilation and well predict the track of Typhoon Chanthu along the east coast of China and its stay on the ocean area east of Shanghai. Therefore, the characteristics of the heavy rainfall caused by the typhoon only affecting Shanghai and northeastern Zhejiang are also well reproduced. Compared with the conventional data assimilation, the assimilation of the Fengyun-3E MWTS-3 data provides a more noticeable improvement in the typhoon intensity forecasts, thus allowing better forecasts of the spiral rain belt of the typhoon. The results of the rolling test also proved that MWTS-3 data assimilation has a stable improvement effect on typhoon track forecasts and the forecast skill of precipitation heavier than 5 mm.
{"title":"Evaluation of the FY-3E microwave temperature sounding data assimilation on forecasting Typhoon Chanthu (2021)","authors":"Yu Huang, Juan Li, Zhengkun Qin","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00989-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00989-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Fengyun-3E is the first early-morning-orbit polar-orbiting satellite launched by China, which carries the third generation of Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS-3). This instrument has 17 channels and it can provide rich atmospheric temperature observation information at different altitudes. To explore the application value of the MWTS-3 data in assimilation, we selected Typhoon Chanthu in 2021 in this study to evaluate the effect of the MWTS-3 data assimilation on the forecasts of typhoons affecting China. The results show that the simultaneous assimilation of the conventional data and MWTS-3 data can effectively correct the westward error of the typhoon track forecasted by the experiments without assimilation and well predict the track of Typhoon Chanthu along the east coast of China and its stay on the ocean area east of Shanghai. Therefore, the characteristics of the heavy rainfall caused by the typhoon only affecting Shanghai and northeastern Zhejiang are also well reproduced. Compared with the conventional data assimilation, the assimilation of the Fengyun-3E MWTS-3 data provides a more noticeable improvement in the typhoon intensity forecasts, thus allowing better forecasts of the spiral rain belt of the typhoon. The results of the rolling test also proved that MWTS-3 data assimilation has a stable improvement effect on typhoon track forecasts and the forecast skill of precipitation heavier than 5 mm.","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136013823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1007/s00703-023-00991-0
Brototi Biswas, Dhivya Karmegam
{"title":"Long-term spatio-temporal analysis and trends of precipitation over semi-arid region of Rajasthan","authors":"Brototi Biswas, Dhivya Karmegam","doi":"10.1007/s00703-023-00991-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00991-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51132,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135388829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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