Pub Date : 2023-11-04DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231201193
Qiang Wang, Chongjun Yang, Juan Zhou, Jiaqi Xu, Benyao Chen, Kai Zhu, Linlin Wu, Xiaomeng Xu, Wanbing Su
To solve the challenge of accurate in-service traction elevator failure prediction, maintenance cycle and steady availability, a novel reliability model is proposed which combines orthogonal defect classification (ODC) and Markov analysis (MA). The elevator failure data are classified by the ODC method. Then, the failure rate and maintenance rate of the elevator parts are obtained based on triangular fuzzy theory. By analyzing the maintenance function of each part, the optimum maintenance cycle of the elevator is determined. Finally, the transient state and steady state equations are established by MA to determine the steady availability of elevators. A case study on elevator accidents and failure data is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the system steady state availability of elevators in the study was 0.9002.
{"title":"Measuring in-service traction elevator reliability based on orthogonal defect classification and Markov analysis","authors":"Qiang Wang, Chongjun Yang, Juan Zhou, Jiaqi Xu, Benyao Chen, Kai Zhu, Linlin Wu, Xiaomeng Xu, Wanbing Su","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231201193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231201193","url":null,"abstract":"To solve the challenge of accurate in-service traction elevator failure prediction, maintenance cycle and steady availability, a novel reliability model is proposed which combines orthogonal defect classification (ODC) and Markov analysis (MA). The elevator failure data are classified by the ODC method. Then, the failure rate and maintenance rate of the elevator parts are obtained based on triangular fuzzy theory. By analyzing the maintenance function of each part, the optimum maintenance cycle of the elevator is determined. Finally, the transient state and steady state equations are established by MA to determine the steady availability of elevators. A case study on elevator accidents and failure data is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the system steady state availability of elevators in the study was 0.9002.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135774693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-04DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231205498
Minglan Xiong, Huawei Wang, Changchang Che, Ruiguan Lin
Flight incidents are characterized by complex mechanisms, leading to poor prediction model robustness and explainability. Based on the full-dimensional description of flight incidents, the explainable module is added to the prediction model to achieve its accuracy, stability, and explainability. Firstly, imbalance processing is performed employing the sampling method, and a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied for feature selection; these results are then considered as prediction model input. Secondly, an extreme gradient boosting algorithm (XGBoost)-based incident severity prediction model is established with five categories of none, minor, serious, fatal, and total as prediction labels; real data is used for validation, and the model shows good robustness and superiority. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is introduced to explain the correlation between incidents severity and input features and to measure feature importance. The results show that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy and robustness. Which can provide some decision-making reference for aviation operation management departments to emergencies, learn the deep-seated law of incidents, and promote the paradigm of active safety management.
{"title":"Toward safer aviation: Application of GA-XGBoost-SHAP for incident cognition and model explainability","authors":"Minglan Xiong, Huawei Wang, Changchang Che, Ruiguan Lin","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231205498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231205498","url":null,"abstract":"Flight incidents are characterized by complex mechanisms, leading to poor prediction model robustness and explainability. Based on the full-dimensional description of flight incidents, the explainable module is added to the prediction model to achieve its accuracy, stability, and explainability. Firstly, imbalance processing is performed employing the sampling method, and a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied for feature selection; these results are then considered as prediction model input. Secondly, an extreme gradient boosting algorithm (XGBoost)-based incident severity prediction model is established with five categories of none, minor, serious, fatal, and total as prediction labels; real data is used for validation, and the model shows good robustness and superiority. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is introduced to explain the correlation between incidents severity and input features and to measure feature importance. The results show that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy and robustness. Which can provide some decision-making reference for aviation operation management departments to emergencies, learn the deep-seated law of incidents, and promote the paradigm of active safety management.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135774699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The development of modern industry has accelerated the need for intelligent fault diagnosis. Nowadays, most bearing fault diagnosis methods only use the information of one sensor, and the diagnostic knowledge contained in single-sensor data is often insufficient, which leads to insufficient diagnostic accuracy under complex working conditions. In addition, although convolutional neural network (CNN) has been widely used in fault diagnosis, the network structures used are still relatively traditional, and the ability of feature extraction is relatively poor. To solve the problems, firstly, this paper innovatively uses coordinate attention (CA) to more fully mine fusion information after concatenate (Cat) operation and proposes a new data fusion mechanism, Cat-CA. Then an improved Residual Block is proposed, and a novel improved CNN is built by stacking this Block. Finally, the Cat-CA-ICNN is built by combining Cat-CA and improved CNN, and its effectiveness and superiority are verified using two datasets.
{"title":"A rolling bearing fault diagnosis method based on a new data fusion mechanism and improved CNN","authors":"Tianzhuang Yu, Zhaohui Ren, Yongchao Zhang, Shihua Zhou, Xin Zhou","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231207169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231207169","url":null,"abstract":"The development of modern industry has accelerated the need for intelligent fault diagnosis. Nowadays, most bearing fault diagnosis methods only use the information of one sensor, and the diagnostic knowledge contained in single-sensor data is often insufficient, which leads to insufficient diagnostic accuracy under complex working conditions. In addition, although convolutional neural network (CNN) has been widely used in fault diagnosis, the network structures used are still relatively traditional, and the ability of feature extraction is relatively poor. To solve the problems, firstly, this paper innovatively uses coordinate attention (CA) to more fully mine fusion information after concatenate (Cat) operation and proposes a new data fusion mechanism, Cat-CA. Then an improved Residual Block is proposed, and a novel improved CNN is built by stacking this Block. Finally, the Cat-CA-ICNN is built by combining Cat-CA and improved CNN, and its effectiveness and superiority are verified using two datasets.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135773394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-28DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231202289
Xinliang Dai, Pingbo Wu, Huailong Shi, Hao Sui
During long-term service, railway vehicles will experience damper performance degradation and track evolution, both have significant effects on the vehicle dynamics performance. This study aims to develop a mathematical model for assessing the failure time of the vehicle system dynamics when considering two random factors. As for the methodology, Wiener processes are used to propose a damper degradation model. Moreover, a continuous-time Markov chain is adopted to describe the state transaction of the track irregularities. In addition, the Monte Carlo method is employed to sample the dynamic responses of the vehicle using stochastic parameters. Finally, the Bayesian theory is utilized to establish the reliability model of the Weibull mixtures under the Dirichlet process prior. The results are obtained through a numerical example: the dampers’ individual differences directly affect effect on the rate of degradation of the vehicle dynamics performance. Furthermore, different indexes positively correlate with each other, mixture models are composed of a small number of components, and Weibull mixtures closely approximate the distribution of the failure time. Compared to other dampers, the anti-yaw dampers have a more significant impact on the vehicle system dynamics. Other results show that each type of damper can adopt a uniform replacement period whereas anti-yaw dampers should be more effectively monitored.
{"title":"Failure time prediction for vehicle dynamics under performance degradation of dampers and track evolution","authors":"Xinliang Dai, Pingbo Wu, Huailong Shi, Hao Sui","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231202289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231202289","url":null,"abstract":"During long-term service, railway vehicles will experience damper performance degradation and track evolution, both have significant effects on the vehicle dynamics performance. This study aims to develop a mathematical model for assessing the failure time of the vehicle system dynamics when considering two random factors. As for the methodology, Wiener processes are used to propose a damper degradation model. Moreover, a continuous-time Markov chain is adopted to describe the state transaction of the track irregularities. In addition, the Monte Carlo method is employed to sample the dynamic responses of the vehicle using stochastic parameters. Finally, the Bayesian theory is utilized to establish the reliability model of the Weibull mixtures under the Dirichlet process prior. The results are obtained through a numerical example: the dampers’ individual differences directly affect effect on the rate of degradation of the vehicle dynamics performance. Furthermore, different indexes positively correlate with each other, mixture models are composed of a small number of components, and Weibull mixtures closely approximate the distribution of the failure time. Compared to other dampers, the anti-yaw dampers have a more significant impact on the vehicle system dynamics. Other results show that each type of damper can adopt a uniform replacement period whereas anti-yaw dampers should be more effectively monitored.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136232926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-26DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231196259
Huadong Mo, Xun Xiao, Giovanni Sansavini, Daoyi Dong
The deployment of advanced information and communication technologies necessitates considering new security threats, such as distributed denial of service attacks and malware, which can fault power generators and feeders and exacerbate power outages in distributed generation systems (DGS). Existing cyber-security studies fail to validate the attacker–defender game model between operators and hackers or provide a DGS model that accounts for realistic characteristics and operations. Furthermore, current game models may be infeasible for large-scale systems and are not robust against uncertainties owing to the use of metaheuristic algorithms. To overcome these gaps, this study quantified the result of a game using the contest success function and estimated the parameters of this function based on real-world evidence: the dataset of cyber crime incidents from Advisen, US. The DGS management was optimized using the power flow model considering the scenario-based uncertainty stemming from cyber-attacks. A three-stage attack+defend–defend–attack framework is proposed to optimize attack–defense resource allocation using the cooperative game and [Formula: see text]-subgradient method. The results for IEEE 4, 13, 34, 123 and 342 test node feeders show that the proposed framework is applicable to large-scale systems and robust to various types of cyber-attacks. The proposed model and algorithms further enhance the DGS performance under uncertainties by protecting the entire grid or only critical nodes according to the defenders’ objectives.
{"title":"Optimal defense resource allocation against cyber-attacks in distributed generation systems","authors":"Huadong Mo, Xun Xiao, Giovanni Sansavini, Daoyi Dong","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231196259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231196259","url":null,"abstract":"The deployment of advanced information and communication technologies necessitates considering new security threats, such as distributed denial of service attacks and malware, which can fault power generators and feeders and exacerbate power outages in distributed generation systems (DGS). Existing cyber-security studies fail to validate the attacker–defender game model between operators and hackers or provide a DGS model that accounts for realistic characteristics and operations. Furthermore, current game models may be infeasible for large-scale systems and are not robust against uncertainties owing to the use of metaheuristic algorithms. To overcome these gaps, this study quantified the result of a game using the contest success function and estimated the parameters of this function based on real-world evidence: the dataset of cyber crime incidents from Advisen, US. The DGS management was optimized using the power flow model considering the scenario-based uncertainty stemming from cyber-attacks. A three-stage attack+defend–defend–attack framework is proposed to optimize attack–defense resource allocation using the cooperative game and [Formula: see text]-subgradient method. The results for IEEE 4, 13, 34, 123 and 342 test node feeders show that the proposed framework is applicable to large-scale systems and robust to various types of cyber-attacks. The proposed model and algorithms further enhance the DGS performance under uncertainties by protecting the entire grid or only critical nodes according to the defenders’ objectives.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134909117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Microwaves are an example of “electromagnetic” radiation, which is a combination of electromagnetic and electrical waves traveling through space. In this paper, the complex consecutive k-out-of- n:W (where, W stands for working system) convection microwave oven system (CMOS) is proposed and different measures are calculated on the basis of the reliability function via two techniques namely, universal generating function (u-function/UGF) and structure-function approach (SFA). Basically, the main aim of the study is to evaluate the signature reliability analysis of the complex consecutive k-out-of- n:W CMOS system using proposed techniques. To assess the suggested system’s reliability function and related metrics, both methods are applied. The considered system consisted of a total seven components, but the system comprises the k-out-of- n:W robustness strategy that’s why it becomes a complex consecutive 5-out-of-7: W CMOS. With the help of the reliability function, the minimal signature is introduced for the determination of the anticipated lifetime and its cost rate. Also. the purpose of this work is to evaluate all these outcomes and then compare their values, which are yielded by both applied approaches, that is, u-function approach and SFA.
{"title":"Signature reliability analysis of complex consecutive <i>k</i>-out-of-<i>n:W</i> CMO system via UGF and SFA","authors":"Sadiya Naaz, Rashmi Khanna, Riya Rawat, Neha Negi, Mangey Ram, Akshay Kumar, Anuj Kumar","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231193193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231193193","url":null,"abstract":"Microwaves are an example of “electromagnetic” radiation, which is a combination of electromagnetic and electrical waves traveling through space. In this paper, the complex consecutive k-out-of- n:W (where, W stands for working system) convection microwave oven system (CMOS) is proposed and different measures are calculated on the basis of the reliability function via two techniques namely, universal generating function (u-function/UGF) and structure-function approach (SFA). Basically, the main aim of the study is to evaluate the signature reliability analysis of the complex consecutive k-out-of- n:W CMOS system using proposed techniques. To assess the suggested system’s reliability function and related metrics, both methods are applied. The considered system consisted of a total seven components, but the system comprises the k-out-of- n:W robustness strategy that’s why it becomes a complex consecutive 5-out-of-7: W CMOS. With the help of the reliability function, the minimal signature is introduced for the determination of the anticipated lifetime and its cost rate. Also. the purpose of this work is to evaluate all these outcomes and then compare their values, which are yielded by both applied approaches, that is, u-function approach and SFA.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135966850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231195398
Canek Jackson, Rodrigo Pascual, F. Kristjanpoller
Airline industry is a business characterized by its low profit and high operational risk. Sometimes contracting out aircraft maintenance is mandatory due to the lack of labor capacity or shortage of staff with specialized capabilities. It raises the challenge of negotiating an agreement through performance-based contracting (PBC) as an alternative to traditional on-call maintenance services, or time and material contracts (T &MC), where no risk is transferred to the service provider. Due to the importance of risk transfer to contractors under PBC, the authors propose a model to determine the optimal contract price and the number of customers to serve when aircraft maintenance is outsourced to a risk-averse service provider offering two PBC options. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no quantitative studies for pricing contracts optimally when taking into account maintenance provider’s risk-aversion have been presented in the existing literature. For that purpose, the authors combine queuing, game, and modern portfolio theories in the proposed formulation.
{"title":"Performance-based contracting in the airline industry from the standpoint of risk-averse maintenance providers","authors":"Canek Jackson, Rodrigo Pascual, F. Kristjanpoller","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231195398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231195398","url":null,"abstract":"Airline industry is a business characterized by its low profit and high operational risk. Sometimes contracting out aircraft maintenance is mandatory due to the lack of labor capacity or shortage of staff with specialized capabilities. It raises the challenge of negotiating an agreement through performance-based contracting (PBC) as an alternative to traditional on-call maintenance services, or time and material contracts (T &MC), where no risk is transferred to the service provider. Due to the importance of risk transfer to contractors under PBC, the authors propose a model to determine the optimal contract price and the number of customers to serve when aircraft maintenance is outsourced to a risk-averse service provider offering two PBC options. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no quantitative studies for pricing contracts optimally when taking into account maintenance provider’s risk-aversion have been presented in the existing literature. For that purpose, the authors combine queuing, game, and modern portfolio theories in the proposed formulation.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83857584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-02DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231193485
Seongjun Park, Jihye Choi, Kyungmee O. Kim
This study determines the number of components in each subsystem that maximizes the reliability of a load-sharing [Formula: see text] out of [Formula: see text] system when repair is performed at the subsystem level. Previous studies have obtained the system availability given that repair is performed for each component failure. We explain how the statistical flowgraph model is used for computing system reliability under the assumption of an inverse Gaussian distribution for the repair of each subsystem and an exponential distribution for the lifetime of a component operating at a fixed load. A closed-form expression is derived for the transition probability between the system states and the moment generating function of the corresponding waiting time distribution conditional on the transition. By comparing the reliability of systems using different numbers of components in subsystems, we explain how the optimal solution is affected by the repair process and the component homogeneity among subsystems. We discover that, if repair is not considered, it is optimal to use a single subsystem that has the maximum reliability across different operating loads, whereas the use of multiple subsystems is beneficial if repair is performed for a subsystem with a small number of components.
{"title":"Component selection for optimal reliability of a repairable load-sharing system","authors":"Seongjun Park, Jihye Choi, Kyungmee O. Kim","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231193485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231193485","url":null,"abstract":"This study determines the number of components in each subsystem that maximizes the reliability of a load-sharing [Formula: see text] out of [Formula: see text] system when repair is performed at the subsystem level. Previous studies have obtained the system availability given that repair is performed for each component failure. We explain how the statistical flowgraph model is used for computing system reliability under the assumption of an inverse Gaussian distribution for the repair of each subsystem and an exponential distribution for the lifetime of a component operating at a fixed load. A closed-form expression is derived for the transition probability between the system states and the moment generating function of the corresponding waiting time distribution conditional on the transition. By comparing the reliability of systems using different numbers of components in subsystems, we explain how the optimal solution is affected by the repair process and the component homogeneity among subsystems. We discover that, if repair is not considered, it is optimal to use a single subsystem that has the maximum reliability across different operating loads, whereas the use of multiple subsystems is beneficial if repair is performed for a subsystem with a small number of components.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80203937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-02DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231195201
Xingbai Chen, Ziyun Wang, Cheng Zhang, Yue Xiang, Yiyang Dai
The safety risk assessment of process industries can determine the degree of safety risk and remind or warn safety management personnel to take corresponding measures according to the probability of accidents. In this paper, hazard identification (HAZID) method is combined with fuzzy Petri net to construct a hybrid safety assessment system. Firstly, the fire risk factors of HAZID are determined according to the fire statistics data. By dividing the whole industrial process into four stages, the complex hazard sources in the factory are investigated item by item, thus the fuzzy Petri net of real-time risk assessment is constructed. Taking an acetic acid enterprise as a case, this paper introduces how to construct such a risk assessment system in detail, and the system can dynamically predict the risk with changes in process conditions. This also demonstrates the feasibility of this method, which can be used as a reference for related research.
{"title":"A fire risk assessment system and application for process industry using fuzzy Petri net and HAZID method","authors":"Xingbai Chen, Ziyun Wang, Cheng Zhang, Yue Xiang, Yiyang Dai","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231195201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231195201","url":null,"abstract":"The safety risk assessment of process industries can determine the degree of safety risk and remind or warn safety management personnel to take corresponding measures according to the probability of accidents. In this paper, hazard identification (HAZID) method is combined with fuzzy Petri net to construct a hybrid safety assessment system. Firstly, the fire risk factors of HAZID are determined according to the fire statistics data. By dividing the whole industrial process into four stages, the complex hazard sources in the factory are investigated item by item, thus the fuzzy Petri net of real-time risk assessment is constructed. Taking an acetic acid enterprise as a case, this paper introduces how to construct such a risk assessment system in detail, and the system can dynamically predict the risk with changes in process conditions. This also demonstrates the feasibility of this method, which can be used as a reference for related research.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81217372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-02DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231194899
Jae-Hak Lim, Dong Ho Park, Dae-Kyung Kim
This paper deals with a post-warranty maintenance model for the second-hand product as follows. The second-hand product of age [Formula: see text], which is assumed to be positive, is purchased with a fixed length of non-renewing warranty, during which the product is given a fixed number of preventive maintenances periodically by the dealer. At each preventive maintenance, the failure rate of the product is adjusted to some extent for the purpose of reducing the likelihood of product failure. At the expiration of warranty, the user starts to self-maintain the product until a pre-determined number of failures occur, at which time the product is replaced by another one. For each post-warranty failure, only a minimal repair is taken to restore the failed product to its previous functioning state. This paper aims to determine an optimal number of post-warranty product failures that minimizes the expected cost rate during the second-hand product’s life cycle. To this end, we derive a formula to evaluate the expected cost rate during the second-hand product’s life cycle by assuming a certain cost structure for maintaining the product during the life-span of the product and determine an optimal number of post-warranty product failures from the user’s perspective. And we provide a numerical example to illustrate our proposed optimal maintenance model by assuming a Weibull failure distribution. The main contribution of this work is to use the number of post-warranty failures to propose a maintenance model for the second-hand product, where the number of failures is in general easier to observe than the failure times.
{"title":"Optimal post-warranty replacement policy based on number of product failures for the second-hand product","authors":"Jae-Hak Lim, Dong Ho Park, Dae-Kyung Kim","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231194899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231194899","url":null,"abstract":"This paper deals with a post-warranty maintenance model for the second-hand product as follows. The second-hand product of age [Formula: see text], which is assumed to be positive, is purchased with a fixed length of non-renewing warranty, during which the product is given a fixed number of preventive maintenances periodically by the dealer. At each preventive maintenance, the failure rate of the product is adjusted to some extent for the purpose of reducing the likelihood of product failure. At the expiration of warranty, the user starts to self-maintain the product until a pre-determined number of failures occur, at which time the product is replaced by another one. For each post-warranty failure, only a minimal repair is taken to restore the failed product to its previous functioning state. This paper aims to determine an optimal number of post-warranty product failures that minimizes the expected cost rate during the second-hand product’s life cycle. To this end, we derive a formula to evaluate the expected cost rate during the second-hand product’s life cycle by assuming a certain cost structure for maintaining the product during the life-span of the product and determine an optimal number of post-warranty product failures from the user’s perspective. And we provide a numerical example to illustrate our proposed optimal maintenance model by assuming a Weibull failure distribution. The main contribution of this work is to use the number of post-warranty failures to propose a maintenance model for the second-hand product, where the number of failures is in general easier to observe than the failure times.","PeriodicalId":51266,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75130093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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