Pub Date : 2023-03-23DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2190467
Russell Cheng, Christopher Dye, John Dagpunar, Brian Williams
This paper considers SEPIR, an extension of the well-known SEIR continuous simulation compartment model. Both models can be fitted to real data as they include parameters that can be estimated from the data. SEPIR deploys an additional presymptomatic infectious compartment, not modelled in SEIR but known to exist in COVID-19. This stage can also be fitted to data. We focus on how to fit SEPIR to a first wave of COVID. Both SEIR and SEPIR and the existing SEIR models assume a homogeneous mixing population with parameters fixed. Moreover, neither includes dynamically varying control strategies deployed against the virus. If either model is to represent more than just a single wave of the epidemic, then the parameters of the model would have to be time dependent. In view of this, we also show how reproduction numbers can be calculated to investigate the long-term overall outcome of an epidemic.
{"title":"Modelling presymptomatic infectiousness in COVID-19","authors":"Russell Cheng, Christopher Dye, John Dagpunar, Brian Williams","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2190467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2190467","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers SEPIR, an extension of the well-known SEIR continuous simulation compartment model. Both models can be fitted to real data as they include parameters that can be estimated from the data. SEPIR deploys an additional presymptomatic infectious compartment, not modelled in SEIR but known to exist in COVID-19. This stage can also be fitted to data. We focus on how to fit SEPIR to a first wave of COVID. Both SEIR and SEPIR and the existing SEIR models assume a homogeneous mixing population with parameters fixed. Moreover, neither includes dynamically varying control strategies deployed against the virus. If either model is to represent more than just a single wave of the epidemic, then the parameters of the model would have to be time dependent. In view of this, we also show how reproduction numbers can be calculated to investigate the long-term overall outcome of an epidemic.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136151801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using a hybrid simulation model to assess the impacts of combined COVID-19 containment measures in a high-speed train station","authors":"Hongli Zhu, Shiyong Liu, Xiaoyan Li, Weiwei Zhang, Nathaniel Osgood, P. Jia","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2189027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2189027","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41481195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-15DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2187321
Yinling Liu, T. Moyaux, G. Bouleux, V. Cheutet
{"title":"Hybrid Simulation Modelling of Emergency Departments for Resource Scheduling","authors":"Yinling Liu, T. Moyaux, G. Bouleux, V. Cheutet","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2187321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2187321","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45089439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-08DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2176794
A. Klimenko
{"title":"Modelling the leaping cycle by modified Lotka-Volterra equations with applications to technology and safety","authors":"A. Klimenko","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2176794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2176794","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43801448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-26DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2181716
M. Isken, Osman T. Aydas, Yazan F. Roumani
{"title":"Queueing inspired feature engineering to improve and simplify patient flow simulation metamodels","authors":"M. Isken, Osman T. Aydas, Yazan F. Roumani","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2181716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2181716","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44920769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-20DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2179948
Mohamadreza Haghani, A. Hosseinzadeh, Robert Kluger
{"title":"A lane-changing behaviour algorithm for connected and autonomous vehicles to facilitate emergency vehicle movements on urban arterials in microsimulation","authors":"Mohamadreza Haghani, A. Hosseinzadeh, Robert Kluger","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2179948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2179948","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41354267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-10DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2174458
Giovanni Lugaresi, Nicla Frigerio, Ziwei Lin, Mengyi Zhang, A. Matta
{"title":"A new teaching approach exploiting lab-scale models of manufacturing systems for simulation classes","authors":"Giovanni Lugaresi, Nicla Frigerio, Ziwei Lin, Mengyi Zhang, A. Matta","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2174458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2174458","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47675041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-06DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2167618
G. Rotunno, Giacomo Lo Zupone, L. Carnimeo, M. P. Fanti
{"title":"Discrete event simulation as a decision tool: a cost benefit analysis case study","authors":"G. Rotunno, Giacomo Lo Zupone, L. Carnimeo, M. P. Fanti","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2167618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2167618","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48190959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-24DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2023.2169643
Xiaoyu Ma, Zhou He, Pengfei Yang, Xiyang Liao, W. Liu
{"title":"Agent-based modelling and simulation for life-cycle airport flight planning and scheduling","authors":"Xiaoyu Ma, Zhou He, Pengfei Yang, Xiyang Liao, W. Liu","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2023.2169643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2169643","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42747926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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