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Analysis of the State and Development of the Economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Conditions of Digitalization and Implementation of Strategic Reforms 数字化和战略改革实施条件下乌兹别克斯坦共和国经济现状与发展分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-47-55
B. A. Begalov, I. E. Zhukovskaya, A. A. Mamadzhanov
Purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the development of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of digital transformation, as well as reforms aimed at liberalizing all aspects of public life, democratizing the state and society, as well as identifying the best practices for modernizing industries and areas of the national economy to achieve the highest results of the country’s competitiveness in the world economic market.Materials and methods. The main sources for analysis and preparation for publication of this article were official statistical data from the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. When writing the article, the authors used methods of statistical analysis of quantitative data, synthesis, methods of systematic generalization of the results of questionnaires and expert surveys, monographic research, methods of working with specialized software products, digital platforms and services, as well as specialized methods of searching and processing data when working with statistical reports and analytical information presented on the corporate portal of the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.Results. The authors of the article studied the regulatory framework for reforming the national economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, analyzed the digital mechanisms for implementing the strategy “Digital Uzbekistan - 2030” and, based on a thorough study of the strategic directions of economic development, revealed that the reforms being implemented, high demands and responsibility for fulfilling the set goals tasks to achieve goals are quite effective. In addition, this study showed that the applied digital solutions, such as digital platforms and digital services specially developed for the field of statistics, artificial intelligence technologies, BIGDATA, cloud computing, business analytical engines, as well as specialized software products, the ability to work with mobile devices and the use of satellite navigation to collect statistical data in the regions of the country make it possible to conduct a multidimensional analysis of business processes of economic objects of the national economy and develop optimal management decisions for the further effective development of industries and spheres of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan.Conclusion. Research conducted as part of this paper shows that today, within the framework of strategies developed in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the effective development of the country’s economy, good results have been achieved. However, in certain sectors and areas of the national economy, qualitative transformations are still needed, based on the introduction of advanced methodological foundations, innovative technological and management solutions in order to increase the country’s competitiveness. It is necessary to further improve the technical and technological base of industrial and agricultural
研究目的本文旨在分析乌兹别克斯坦共和国在数字化转型背景下的经济发展情况,以及旨在实现公共生活各方面自由化、国家和社会民主化的改革,并确定实现国民经济各行业和领域现代化的最佳做法,以实现国家在世界经济市场中的最高竞争力。本文分析和出版准备工作的主要资料来源是乌兹别克斯坦共和国总统直属统计局的官方统计数据。在撰写本文时,作者使用了定量数据统计分析方法、综合方法、系统归纳问卷调查和专家调查结 果的方法、专题研究方法、使用专业软件产品、数字平台和服务的方法,以及在使用乌兹别克斯坦共和国 总统直属统计局门户网站上的统计报告和分析信息时搜索和处理数据的专业方法。文章作者研究了乌兹别克斯坦共和国国民经济改革的监管框架,分析了实施 "数字乌兹别 克斯坦--2030 "战略的数字化机制,并在对经济发展战略方向进行深入研究的基础上,揭示了 正在实施的改革、对完成既定目标任务的高要求和责任是相当有效的。此外,本研究还表明,应用数字解决方案,如专门为统计领域开发的数字平台和数字服务、人工智能技术、BIGDATA、云计算、商业分析引擎,以及专业软件产品、与移动设备协同工作的能力和利用卫星导航在全国各地区收集统计数据,使得对国民经济经济对象的业务流程进行多维分析成为可能,并为乌兹别克斯坦共和国各行业和经济领域的进一步有效发展制定最佳管理决策。本文所进行的研究表明,目前在乌兹别克斯坦共和国为有效发展国家经济而制定的战略框架内取得了良好的成果。然而,在国民经济的某些部门和领域,仍然需要在引进先进的方法基础、创新的技术和管理解决方案的基础上进行质的转变,以提高国家的竞争力。有必要进一步改善工业和农业企业的技术和工艺基础,确保人力资本的高质量发展,改进数字经济中企业结构的运作方法和形式,确定新的发展动力,以实现经济的均衡增长,提高全国人民的生活质量。
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引用次数: 0
Cointegration Analysis of the Interaction Between Changes in the Exchange Rates of the Us Dollar and Azerbaijani Manat With the Turkish Lira 美元和阿塞拜疆马纳特与土耳其里拉汇率变动之间相互作用的协整分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-56-63
N. G. Burjaliyeva
Purpose of the study. The article scrutinizes the prerequisites for the manifestation of cointegration associations amid the fluctuations in the AZN/TL and USD/TL exchange rates during the initial half of 2023, under the circumstances characterized by the precipitous depreciation of the Turkish lira.Materials and methods. The study employs contemporary econometric methodologies, encompassing the Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, vector error correction, and other pertinent approaches.Results. The research dynamically scrutinizes the underlying causes of the Turkish lira’s devaluation, its impact on the economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and its influence on the AZN/TL exchange rate. A cointegration model of reciprocal influence was established through the accurate application of econometric tests. The imbalance recovery coefficient was found to be -0.933745, ensuring that the trajectory reverts to its original state in the subsequent moment after deviating from the equilibrium state. In the case of USD/TL the first order differences, this coefficient is -0.242442, albeit statistically insignificant. The interpretation of the established model indicates that the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar does not exert a significant impact on the fluctuations in the AZN/TL exchange rate.Conclusion. The findings of the research indicate that while the USD/TL does exert an influence on the AZN/TL, the devaluation of the Turkish lira does not significantly impact the economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
研究目的。文章探讨了在土耳其里拉急剧贬值的情况下,2023 年上半年土耳其兹罗提/土耳其里拉和美元/土耳其里拉汇率波动中体现协整关系的先决条件。研究采用了当代计量经济学方法,包括约翰森协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、向量误差修正和其他相关方法。研究动态地审视了土耳其里拉贬值的根本原因、对阿塞拜疆共和国经济的影响及其对 AZN/TL 汇率的影响。通过准确应用计量经济学检验,建立了相互影响的协整模型。发现失衡恢复系数为-0.933745,确保偏离均衡状态后的轨迹在随后时刻恢复到初始状态。在美元/伦敦一阶差分的情况下,该系数为-0.242442,尽管在统计上并不显著。对所建立模型的解释表明,土耳其里拉对美元的贬值对 AZN/TL 汇率的波动影响不大。研究结果表明,虽然美元/土耳其里拉确实对阿塞拜疆尼姆/土耳其里拉产生了影响,但土耳其里拉的贬值并没有对阿塞拜疆共和国的经济产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Need for Construction of Cargo Ships Under Sanctions Pressure 评估在制裁压力下建造货船的必要性
Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-4-13
N. V. Brikotnina
Purpose of the study. The main factor influencing the market for transport and logistics services in the Russian Federation in 2022 is the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation. As a result, consequences such as border closures, volatility in global commodity markets, and contraction in demand for goods and services have had a significant impact on the shipbuilding industry. Due to sanctions pressure and the deterioration of the technical feasibility of constructing offshore and river facilities at enterprises of the Russian Federation, the volume of potential orders has decreased. In this regard, the purpose of the study is to assess the need for the construction of cargo ships under sanctions pressure, by improving the methods of long-term forecasting.Materials and methods. The sources of information for the calculations were official data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Russian Classification Society; forecast values from departments and analytical agencies were also used. To forecast the volume of cargo transportation by water transport, the method of multiple correlation and regression analysis was used.Results. The forecast of the volume of transportation of certain types of goods is calculated, taking into account the influence of key economic and political factors. Based on forecasts of the cargo base, exports, imports, construction, decommissioning of ships and the current state of the fleet, an assessment of the need for the construction of cargo ships under sanctions pressure until 2030 was carried out. Calculations of the need for water transport were carried out within the framework of two forecast models – optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The optimistic one provides for further updating of vessels according to the current trend (emphasis is placed on repairs; it is assumed that only 1-2% of watercrafts will be taken out of service). The pessimistic option implies a large-scale replacement of the old cargo fleet by 2030 (with the decommissioning of all ships that have become unusable). By 2030, the demand for marine vessels will range from 452 units to 1307 units, depending on market conditions. The demand for river and river-sea vessels will range from 1433 units to 6485 units. The results of the study showed that the need for vessels stated in the Strategy is insufficient to meet the needs of the water market.Conclusion. This approach can be used when updating the development Strategy of the shipbuilding industry.
研究目的。2022 年影响俄罗斯联邦运输和物流服务市场的主要因素是对俄罗斯联邦实施制裁。因此,边境关闭、全球商品市场波动、商品和服务需求萎缩等后果对造船业产生了重大影响。由于制裁压力以及俄罗斯联邦企业建造近海和内河设施的技术可行性下降,潜在订单量减少。为此,本研究旨在通过改进长期预测方法,评估在制裁压力下建造货轮的需求。计算的信息来源是联邦国家统计局和俄罗斯船级社的官方数据;还使用了各部门和分析机构的预测值。为预测水运货物运输量,采用了多重相关和回归分析方法。考虑到主要经济和政治因素的影响,对某些类型货物的运输量进行了预测计算。根据对货物基数、出口、进口、船舶建造、退役和船队现状的预测,对 2030 年前在制裁压力下建造货轮的需求进行了评估。对水运需求的计算是在两个预测模型--乐观和悲观方案--的框架内进行的。乐观方案是根据目前的趋势进一步更新船只(重点放在维修上;假定只有 1-2%的水上船只将停止使用)。悲观方案意味着到 2030 年将大规模更换老旧船队(退役所有无法使用的船舶)。到 2030 年,海运船舶的需求量将从 452 艘到 1307 艘不等,具体取决于市场条件。内河和江海船舶的需求量将从 1433 艘到 6485 艘不等。研究结果表明,《战略》中提出的船舶需求不足以满足水上市场的需求。在更新造船业发展战略时可以采用这种方法。
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引用次数: 0
Structural Changes in the Dynamics of China’s Exports and Imports 中国进出口动态的结构性变化
Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-60-71
V. V. Narbut, T. I. Chinaeva, E. I. Larionova
The economic policy pursued has turned China into a major trading power. In terms of GDP, the Chinese economy has been the first economy in the world for a number of recent years; China’s rapidly growing trade flows have made it the largest trading partner for many countries. Over the past twenty years there has been rapid growth in exports and imports. The article puts forward a hypothesis about the presence of structural instability in the dynamics of Chinese exports for the period from 2000 to 2020. The hypothesis was confirmed and two periods were identified in the dynamics of exports and imports with different natures of the main development trend: from 2000 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2020. For each stage, trend equations were selected that describe the dynamics of exports and imports and an interval forecast of indexes for 2021 was made. Materials and methods. During the work, dynamic, structural analysis of analytical and statistical information was used; methods of analytical, logical, systemic, correlation and regression analysis were used, as well as analysis of structural changes. The analysis was carried out using the Statistica 10.0 program.Results. A change in the value of the import coverage ratio by exports was revealed before and after structural changes in the dynamics of the main foreign economic indexes and an assessment of their statistical significance was given. An analysis of the influence of export dynamics on GDP dynamics was carried out and it was found that before structural changes, the influence of export dynamics on GDP dynamics was statistically insignificant, and after a structural change, export dynamics began to have a direct impact on changes in China’s GDP. Conclusion. Analysis of official statistical data on the main indexes of China’s foreign economic activity for the period from 2000 to 2020 allowed us to note that the volume of Chinese exports increased over the period 2010-2019 from $1.58 trillion in 2010 (10.34% of global exports), to $2.50 trillion in 2019 (12.81% of global exports). In 2019, China continued to rank first in terms of export value among all countries in the world. Despite the challenging year of 2020, China’s exports reached almost 2.6 trillion US dollars and increased by 4% compared to 2019.China also occupies a leading position in the export of high-tech goods - their volume is 731.9 billion US dollars, the share of exports in the global volume is 25%. At the same time, the dynamics of Chinese exports for the period from 2000 to 2020 was heterogeneous and characterized by structural instability. Two stages can be distinguished with different characteristics of the main development trend: from 2000 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2020. Based on this, the authors came to the conclusion that to describe the main trend in the development of export and import dynamics for the period from 2000 to 2008, the exponential model is best suited. To describe the main trend in the development of export and i
中国奉行的经济政策已使中国成为贸易大国。就国内生产总值而言,中国经济近年来连续多年位居世界第一;中国迅速增长的贸易流量使其成为许多国家的最大贸易伙伴。在过去二十年里,中国的进出口快速增长。文章提出了 2000 年至 2020 年期间中国出口动态存在结构不稳定性的假设。假设得到了证实,并确定了主要发展趋势性质不同的两个进出口动态阶段:2000 年至 2008 年和 2009 年至 2020 年。为每个阶段选择了描述进出口动态的趋势方程,并对 2021 年的指数进行了区间预测。材料和方法。在工作中,使用了分析和统计信息的动态结构分析;使用了分析、逻辑、系统、相关和回归分析方法,以及结构变化分析方法。分析使用 Statistica 10.0 程序进行。在主要对外经济指标动态发生结构性变化前后,出口对进口的覆盖率值发生了变化,并对其统计意义进行了评估。对出口动态对 GDP 动态的影响进行了分析,发现在结构变化之前,出口动态对 GDP 动态的影响在统计上并不显著,而在结构变化之后,出口动态开始对中国 GDP 的变化产生直接影响。结论通过对 2000 年至 2020 年期间中国对外经济活动主要指标的官方统计数据进行分析,我们可以注意到,在 2010-2019 年期间,中国出口额从 2010 年的 1.58 万亿美元(占全球出口额的 10.34%)增加到 2019 年的 2.50 万亿美元(占全球出口额的 12.81%)。2019 年,中国出口额继续位居世界各国之首。尽管 2020 年是充满挑战的一年,但中国的出口额仍达到近 2.6 万亿美元,与 2019 年相比增长了 4%。中国在高科技产品出口方面也占据领先地位--其出口额为 7319 亿美元,占全球出口额的 25%。与此同时,2000 年至 2020 年期间,中国的出口动态呈现出结构不稳定的特点。主要发展趋势可分为两个不同特点的阶段:2000 年至 2008 年和 2009 年至 2020 年。在此基础上,作者得出结论:要描述 2000 年至 2008 年期间进出口动态发展的主要趋势,指数模型是最合适的。要描述 2009 年至 2020 年期间进出口动态发展的主要趋势--对数模型。对进出口量变化一致性的研究表明,与 2000 年至 2008 年相比,2009 年至 2020 年期间中国主要外贸流量的一致性更高。在进出口动态结构变化前,覆盖率从 105.7%变化到 127.6%;在结构变化后,覆盖率从 108.9%变化到 135.4%。在 2000 年至 2008 年期间,中国出口的动态对中国 GDP 的动态没有显著的统计影响。从 2009 年到 2020 年,在中国对外贸易主要指标动态性质发生结构性变化后,出口变化开始对 GDP 动态产生统计意义上的显著影响。现在,中国出口每增加 1%,GDP 就会增加 0.25%。本文的实际意义在于,以中国为例,研究了进出口动态结构变化的分析方法。
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引用次数: 0
Illegal Activities of Cartel Organizations in the Field of Public Procurement as a New Object of Statistical Study 作为统计研究新对象的卡特尔组织在公共采购领域的非法活动
Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-83-95
A. E. Lyapin
The sphere of public procurement and the disbursement of budget funds in all countries is an environment that attracts not only respectable entrepreneurs who want to make guaranteed money, but also various “criminal white-collar elements.” According to various estimates, the volume of financing for public procurement in the Russian Federation occupies up to one third of the total GDP. A large number of labor and financial resources are involved in this area, while regularly changing legislation in this area, as well as the complexity of procurement procedures for different categories of goods, works, and services create favorable conditions and allow unscrupulous bidders, as well as corrupt customer representatives, to obtain unjustified profits and illegal remuneration. In the current situation, the introduction of new control measures becomes vital to ensure fair competition and efficient use of budget funds. That is why additional research and measures aimed at eliminating these problems and the preconditions for their occurrence are an integral part of ensuring the effectiveness of the public procurement system and protecting public interests.Purpose of the research is to study the genesis of cartel agreements in public procurement and their impact on the implementation of national projects in the Russian Federation, as well as the impact of cartel agreements on the presence of healthy competition and the efficiency of spending budget funds. As part of the paper, the state of crime in this area was examined; the signs of cartel agreements, methods for identifying cartels, as well as signs of collusion between the customer and the participant in public procurement were identified.Methods and materials. The author in his paper applies a comprehensive methodological approach, including analysis of statistical data, methods of the general theory of statistics, as well as methods of synthesis and analysis. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the current legal regulation in the field of public procurement. Graphical and tabular methods were used to visualize statistical data. The study is based on data provided by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia, the Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation, the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation and the Judicial Department of the Supreme Court.Results of the study. The paper made a quantitative assessment of the scope of public procurement in recent years, and assessed the work carried out by law enforcement officials and the antimonopoly service. Typical violations of antimonopoly legislation during public procurement are given and methods for identifying them are proposed. The illegal schemes used by cartel participants in electronic trading are analyzed, as well as problematic issues and ways to resolve them that arise in practice. The paper proposes various approaches to increasing the efficiency of law enforcement and contro
所有国家的公共采购和预算资金支付领域都是一个吸引人的环境,它不仅吸引着那些想赚取有保障的钱的受人尊敬的企业家,也吸引着各种 "白领犯罪分子"。据各种估计,俄罗斯联邦的政府采购资金量占国内生产总值的三分之一。这一领域涉及大量的人力和财力,而这一领域的立法经常变化,以及不同类别货物、工程和服务采购程序的复杂性创造了有利条件,使不法投标人以及腐败的客户代表能够获得不正当的利润和非法报酬。在当前形势下,采取新的控制措施对于确保公平竞争和有效利用预算资金至关重要。研究的目的是研究公共采购中卡特尔协议的起源及其对俄罗斯联邦国家项目实施的影响,以 及卡特尔协议对良性竞争和预算资金使用效率的影响。作为本文的一部分,对该领域的犯罪状况进行了研究;确定了卡特尔协议的迹象、识别卡特尔的方法以及客户与公共采购参与者之间串通的迹象。作者在论文中采用了全面的方法论,包括统计数据的分析、统计学一般理论的方法以及综合和分析方法。主要关注对公共采购领域现行法律法规的分析。使用了图形和表格方法来直观显示统计数据。研究以俄罗斯内务部、俄罗斯联邦反垄断局、俄罗斯联邦财政部、俄罗斯联邦总检察院和最高法院司法局提供的数据为基础。本文对近年来政府采购的范围进行了量化评估,并对执法人员和反垄断部门开展的工作进行了评估。文中列举了公共采购中违反反垄断法的典型案例,并提出了识别方法。分析了卡特尔参与者在电子交易中使用的非法手段,以及在实践中出现的问题和解决方法。本文提出了提高执法和监管机构效率的各种方法。对执法实践的分析揭示了与证明该领域犯罪相关的问题,并指出执法机构与俄罗斯联邦反垄断局之间的互动程度不够。作者在研究报告中分析了卡特尔的主要特征,提出了识别卡特尔的方法以及改进核查活动的方法。所提出的措施并没有穷尽研究的主题,为了有效打击卡特尔,建议采取系统的方法,不仅包括提高执法和管制机构的工作质量,还包括改进用于开展检查的软件和硬件。在俄罗斯,公共采购中的卡特尔是一个相对较新的现象;从俄罗斯内务部和俄罗斯联邦最高法院司法局获得的统计数据表明,执法和监管机构打击卡特尔协议参与者犯罪行为的工作才刚刚开始。只有执法和监管机构卓有成效的联合工作才能确保国家的经济安全,保护俄罗斯联邦的国家利益。
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引用次数: 0
Statistics as an Essential Element of Modern Hybrid Warfares 统计是现代混合战争的基本要素
Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-4-10
M. Karmanov
The relevance of the study lies in the fact that at present, information flows, often based on “falsification” of data, are having an increasing influence. And statistics act as such a tool.Purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to study opinions and approaches to the use of statistics to conduct information wars.Materials and methods. The study examined the main directions of statistics as a tool for working with data. The most common and practically justified is the use of statistics as a tool of knowledge, management, propaganda and control. The result of interpreting statistical data primarily depends on the degree of objectivity and level of literacy of those who work with the data: both at the initial stage of the original data array, and at the stage of explaining the resulting values.Results. It was revealed that the same parameters (proportions) can be interpreted in completely different ways. Such differences arise both from the subjectivity of the perception of these data and from the degree of elaboration of the material. As a result, a field for discrepancies and discussion arises.Conclusion. Statistics have already become an integral component of wars of a new format, where the battle for people’s worldview becomes the basis for further presence in many spheres of life. But with competent, properly structured and timely statistical information, it is possible to suppress falsely generated data and inflict damage on the enemy that significantly exceeds direct military clashes on the battlefield.
这项研究的现实意义在于,目前,往往以 "伪造 "数据为基础的信息流正在产生越来越大的影响。而统计就是这样一种工具。本文旨在研究利用统计数据开展信息战的观点和方法。本研究探讨了统计作为数据处理工具的主要方向。最常见和最有实际意义的是将统计数据用作知识、管理、宣传和控制的工具。解释统计数据的结果主要取决于数据工作者的客观程度和素养水平:无论是在原始数据排列的初始阶段,还是在解释所得数值的阶段。结果表明,相同的参数(比例)可以有完全不同的解释。这种差异既来自于对这些数据的主观认识,也来自于对材料的详细说明程度。因此,出现了差异和讨论的领域。统计数字已经成为新形式战争中不可或缺的组成部分,在这种形式的战争中,人们世界观的争夺成为在许多生活领域进一步存在的基础。但是,有了有能力、结构合理和及时的统计信息,就有可能压制虚假数据,给敌人造成的伤害远远超过战场上的直接军事冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Dynamics of Structural Changes in the Socio-Economic Environment and Their Typology in the Context of a Statistical Approach 以统计方法评估社会经济环境结构变化的动态及其类型
Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-11-20
N. D. Kremlev
The purpose of the study is to substantiate the documentation for assessing the dynamics of structural changes in the socio-economic environment and their typology. The relevance of the study is related to the problems of reflecting the socio-economic environment, which affect the efficiency of economic activity. To address these issues, many regions of the country have adopted regional development strategies for the period up to 2030, which correspond to the national development goals of the Russian Federation. Various approaches of scientists to determining the essence and significance of the socio-economic environment, which is defined as a set of conditions and factors that influence all sectors of the economy, are studied.Methods: structural, index, comparative estimates and methodology of the system of national accounts.Results: the article uses a digital meter as a reproduction of the population and gross regional product (GRP), which objectively reflect the structural changes and typologies of the regions. GRP is calculated by types of economic activity, at the stages of: production, income generation and final consumption of households 2012-2021. Typologies of the Ural regions have been developed according to the following criteria: specialization of the economy, the position of the region in production, by types of primary income and final consumption of households per capita.Conclusion: the advantage of the statistical approach of studying the assessment of the dynamics of structural changes in the socio-economic environment and their typology allows us to get a more objective idea of the prevailing trends and the state of the regional economy. The results obtained made it possible to formulate a methodological basis for future scientific research in the field of structural changes in the meso-environment and socio-economic behavior of the population. They can also be used as a methodological basis for the development of public policy measures and strategies for sustainable development of territories in the future.
本研究的目的是为评估社会经济环境结构变化的动态及其类型的文献提供依据。研究的相关性与反映社会经济环境的问题有关,这些问题会影响经济活动的效率。为了解决这些问题,国内许多地区都通过了到 2030 年的地区发展战略,这些战略与俄罗斯联邦的国家发展目标是一致的。本文研究了科学家确定社会经济环境本质和意义的各种方法,社会经济环境被定义为影响所有经济部门的一系列条件和因素。方法:国民经济核算体系的结构、指数、比较估算和方法。结果:文章使用数字表作为人口和地区生产总值(GRP)的再现,客观地反映了地区的结构变化和类型。地区生产总值按经济活动类型、生产、创收和家庭最终消费阶段(2012-2021 年)进行计算。乌拉尔地区的类型是根据以下标准制定的:经济的专业化、地区在生产中的地位、人均初次收入和家庭最终消费的类型。结论:研究社会经济环境结构变化动态评估及其类型的统计方法的优势使我们能够更客观地了解地区经济的主要趋势和状况。所获得的结果为今后在中观环境结构变化和居民社会经济行为领域开展科学研究奠定了方法论基础。这些结果还可作为制定公共政策措施和未来地区可持续发展战略的方法论基础。
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引用次数: 0
Shift-Share Method in Assessing the Interrelation of Employment Dynamics in Cities and Regions 评估城市和地区就业动态相互关系的换位分享法
Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-33-45
I. A. Zalmanov
   Purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to analyze the dynamics of employment in major cities of the Russian Federation, including megacities, in the context of rapid innovative development, complex demographic situation, and instability of external migration flows.   The research focuses on identifying factors at various levels that affect employment, with an emphasis on the interconnections of cities and regions in the hierarchical “city-region” system.   Materials and methods. The paper explores the shift-share method (SSM), which allows decomposing changes in employment with highlighting the influence of the overall dynamics of the regional labor market, industry characteristics, and competitive factors of cities. A multilevel analysis using this method aims to assess the structural-dynamic links of the hierarchically interconnected “city-region” system. The research uses municipal statistics data from 81 cities of the Russian Federation for the period from 2017 to 2021. Based on the concept of sectoral division of the economy, taking into account the functional features of the included industries, the structural-dynamic employment indexes in cities were analyzed across four economic sectors.   Results. The application of the SSM method yielded results that allow for a detailed examination of employment dynamics in major cities. The analysis includes the influence of the overall dynamics of the regional labor market, industry characteristics, and competitive factors of cities. The research validates the effectiveness of the shift-share method for the preliminary analysis of employment dynamics in cities with the aim of specifying the significance of the impact on it by industrial and sectoral factors at regional and local levels and their prioritization for further analysis and the development of recommendations for urban economic management.   Conclusion. The study highlights the importance of analyzing employment in the context of the urban economy, especially under conditions of rapid innovative development and demographic challenges. The SSM method appears to be an effective tool for preliminary examination of employment dynamics, identifying key factors, and developing management strategies aimed at improving the economic development of Russia’s major cities.
研究目的本研究旨在分析俄罗斯联邦主要城市(包括特大城市)在快速创新发展、复杂的人口状况和外部移民潮不稳定的背景下的就业动态。 研究重点是确定影响就业的各级因素,重点是城市和地区在 "城市-地区 "分级体系中的相互联系。 材料和方法。本文探讨了转移份额法(SSM),该方法可以分解就业的变化,突出地区劳动力市场的整体动态、行业特征和城市竞争因素的影响。使用该方法进行多层次分析,旨在评估 "城市-地区 "系统之间的结构动态联系。研究使用了俄罗斯联邦 81 个城市 2017 年至 2021 年期间的市政统计数据。在经济部门划分概念的基础上,考虑到所包含行业的功能特点,对四个经济部门的城市结构-动态就业指数进行了分析。 分析结果应用 SSM 方法得出的结果可以对主要城市的就业动态进行详细研究。分析内容包括区域劳动力市场的整体动态、行业特征和城市竞争因素的影响。研究验证了轮班份额法在初步分析城市就业动态方面的有效性,其目的是明确地区和地方层面的产业和行业因素对就业动态的重要影响,并确定其优先次序,以便进一步分析和制定城市经济管理建议。 结论。本研究强调了在城市经济背景下分析就业的重要性,尤其是在快速创新发展和人口挑战的条件下。SSM 方法似乎是初步研究就业动态、确定关键因素和制定旨在改善俄罗斯主要城市经济发展的管理策略的有效工具。
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引用次数: 0
Analytical Capabilities of Statistical Methodology for Assessing Threats to Economic Security 评估经济安全威胁的统计方法的分析能力
Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-15-23
D. V. Dianov, E. I. Kuznetsova
   Subject. Reduction of threats to economic security based on the construction of multifactorial statistical models that quantify the impact of factors on the level of economic crime, in particular, on the scale of material damage from economic crime.   Purposes. Adaptation and application of statistical methodology for complex quantitative assessment of threats to economic security, multifactor modeling of patterns and trends of economic crime.   Methods. Applied methods of multidimensional classification - cluster analysis, correlation and regression, trend models and forecasting.   Results. Statistical modeling was carried out in the context of clusters formed during the study, reflecting the specification of their regions based on the application of statistical methodology for the typologization of the regions of the Russian Federation and the construction of multifactorial statistical models that quantitatively describe the impact of factors on the level of economic crime (the scale of material damage from economic crime).   Conclusions. The results of the conducted research can be used in information and analytical work and activities of departments of internal affairs bodies, public administration bodies to develop directions for reducing economic security risks from criminalization factors. The obtained substantiation of the significance of the factors provides the basis for their inclusion in the dynamic regression model, according to which it is advisable to create short-term forecasts of the crime level of an economic orientation.
主题建立多因素统计模型,量化各种因素对经济犯罪水平的影响,特别是对经济犯罪造成的物质损失规模的影响,在此基础上减少对经济安全的威胁。 目的。调整和应用统计方法,对经济安全威胁进行复杂的定量评估,建立经济犯罪模式和趋势的多因素模型。 方法。应用多维分类方法--聚类分析、相关和回归、趋势模型和预测。 结果。在研究过程中形成的聚类背景下进行了统计建模,反映了在应用统计方法对俄罗斯联邦各地区进行类型化的基础上对其地区进行的规范,并构建了多因素统计模型,定量描述了各种因素对经济犯罪水平(经济犯罪造成的物质损失规模)的影响。 结论研究结果可用于内务机关部门、公共管理机构的信息分析工作和活动,以制定减少犯罪因素带来 的经济安全风险的方向。这些因素的重要性已得到证实,这为将其纳入动态回归模型提供了依据,根据动态回归模型,可以对经济方向的犯罪水平进行短期预测。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions 制裁下的俄罗斯金融体系统计研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-24-32
V. V. Narbut, V. Salin, E. P. Shpakovskaya
   Purpose of the study. The imposition of sanctions on the financial sector and suspending relations with international financial institutions in 2022 has significantly affected the external conditions for the development of the domestic financial sector, caused an increase in geopolitical tensions and instability in the Russian currency market. It is necessary to study and understand the processes currently taking place in the financial market. The article is devoted to the statistical assessment of the impact of sanctions on the Russian financial system in 2022 and 2023.   The purpose of research paper is to identify the situation on the currency, money and credit, debt market, as well as in the budgetary sphere, to assess the relationship between the dynamics of key financial indexes in the sanctions crisis.   Materials and methods. The sources of information for the calculations were official data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, the provider of data on financial markets Cbonds and PJSC “Moscow Exchange”. The article used statistical methods of analysis: variations, dynamics, hypothesis testing. Determination of anomalous levels of the time series was carried out using the Irwin method. Differences in average federal budget indexes were assessed using the Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test. The dependence of the dynamics of the main financial indexes was assessed on the basis of time series correlation.   Results. The study allowed us to conclude that 2022 was a critical year for the Russian financial system. All its sectors were affected by sanctions restrictions. The weakening of the national currency was revealed in the currency market, and it was found that the dollar exchange rate in 2023 was abnormally high for the period from 2000 to 2023. The budget sector hasdemonstrated stability. The results of the study showed that the sanctions pressure did not affect the revenue part of the federal budget. However, the average monthly expenditure of the federal budget increased statistically significantly by almost three times in 2022. The monetary market reacted with an excessive supply of money. The increase in the money supply has reached its highest value in the last 10 years. The money supply growth was accompanied by changes in its structure. The banking sector showed the development of the credit growth trend. The debt market reacted with a rapid growth of corporate bonds volume, the highest for the last 10 years. And the market of federal loan bonds was characterized by a rapid reduction in the volume of federal loan bonds owned by non-residents and a decrease in the share of non-residents. The interrelation between the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate and the volume of corporate lending associated with the conversion of loans in US dollars and euros into yuan was revealed. Direct interrelation was observed in the dynamics of money supply and the volume of corporate bonds and federal loan bonds
研究目的2022 年对俄罗斯金融业实施制裁并暂停与国际金融机构的关系极大地影响了国内金融业发展的外部条件,加剧了地缘政治紧张局势和俄罗斯货币市场的不稳定性。有必要研究和了解当前金融市场的发展进程。本文致力于对 2022 年和 2023 年制裁对俄罗斯金融体系的影响进行统计评估。 研究论文的目的是确定货币、货币和信贷、债务市场以及预算领域的情况,评估制裁危机中主要金融指数动态之间的关系。 材料和方法计算的信息来源是俄罗斯联邦财政部、俄罗斯银行、金融市场数据提供商 Cbonds 和 PJSC "莫斯科交易所 "的官方数据。文章采用了统计分析方法:变化、动态、假设检验。使用欧文方法确定了时间序列的异常水平。联邦预算平均指数的差异采用 Wilcoxon 配对检验法进行评估。根据时间序列相关性评估了主要财政指数动态的依赖性。 研究结果研究得出结论,2022 年是俄罗斯金融体系的关键一年。所有部门都受到制裁限制的影响。货币市场显示了本国货币的疲软,并发现 2023 年的美元汇率在 2000 年至 2023 年期间异常高。预算部门表现稳定。研究结果表明,制裁压力并未影响联邦预算的收入部分。然而,联邦预算的月平均支出在 2022 年却大幅增加了近三倍。货币市场的反应是货币供应量过大。货币供应量的增长达到了过去 10 年中的最高值。在货币供应量增长的同时,其结构也发生了变化。银行业呈现信贷增长趋势。债务市场的反应是公司债券数量快速增长,达到了过去 10 年的最高值。联邦贷款债券市场的特点是,非居民拥有的联邦贷款债券数量迅速减少,非居民所占份额下降。美元汇率动态与企业将美元和欧元贷款转换为人民币的贷款额之间的相互关系得到了揭示。货币供应量的动态与公司债券和联邦贷款债券市场的数量之间存在直接的相互关系。 结论金融体系正在适应新形势。金融监管方法和工具的转变也伴随着这一过程。在这一过程中,需要研究和了解金融体系各结构要素的构成、动态和相互联系的变化,并找到其发展的途径。
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引用次数: 0
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Statistics and Economics
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