Political Research Quarterly最新文献

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Ethnicity and Response to Internal Environmental Migrants in the United States 美国国内环境移民的种族和应对措施

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231225669

K. Ash, Puck Winchester

We examine how responses to individuals displaced by environmental shocks vary based on the ethnicity of the migrants, the locals, and their ethnic groups’ political status. We embed an experiment into a stratified sample of 2,188 white, Black, and Latinx Americans surveyed through Qualtrics Panels. The experiment shows respondents a photo of a flooded road, randomly assigning whether there are white, Black, Latinx, or no persons wading through the water. Results show no outward change in approval for migrants settling in respondents’ neighborhoods based on their ethnicity. However, emotional responses to migrants, perceptions of migrants’ economic backgrounds, and levels of tolerance and ethnocentrism among locals vary based on migrants’ ethnicity. While there may not be outward xenophobia and conflict in the face of internal climate-related migration, the underlying attitudes of members of receiving communities suggest internal migrants from politically excluded groups lack local acceptance and may face more subtle prejudice.

我们研究了对因环境冲击而流离失所的个人的反应如何因移民的种族、当地人及其种族群体的政治地位而有所不同。我们在通过 Qualtrics 小组调查的 2188 名白人、黑人和拉美裔美国人的分层抽样中嵌入了一个实验。实验向受访者展示了一张被洪水淹没的道路照片，并随机分配是白人、黑人、拉美裔还是没有人涉水而过。结果显示，受访者对在其社区定居的移民的认可度并没有因其种族而发生明显变化。然而，对移民的情绪反应、对移民经济背景的看法以及当地人的容忍度和种族中心主义程度却因移民的种族而异。虽然面对与气候相关的国内移民，可能并不存在外在的仇外心理和冲突，但接收社区成员的潜在态度表明，来自政治排斥群体的国内移民缺乏当地人的认可，并可能面临更微妙的偏见。

引用次数: 0

Countering “Fake News” Through Public Education and Advertisements: An Experimental Analysis 通过公共教育和广告打击 "假新闻"：实验分析

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231224084

Gregory H. Winger, Alex Oliver, Jelena Vićić, Adam Schaeffer

This paper examines whether proactive efforts to educate people about disinformation through advertisements can successfully increase skepticism towards false headlines or if such efforts do more harm than good by inadvertently increasing belief in false information. We analyze a survey experiment that employed three different advertisements that directly addressed “fake news.” We find that all advertisements were effective at increasing skepticism towards “fake news” headlines. We also find no evidence of backfire effects occurring. However, subsequent analysis using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) finds significant heterogeneity within these treatment effects. While all advertisements were effective, each ad was effective in different ways despite common themes and content. This suggests a more complicated understanding of the counter-disinformation process and highlights BART’s utility in public opinion research.

本文探讨了通过广告对人们进行虚假信息教育是否能成功提高人们对虚假标题的怀疑态度，或者这种努力是否会在无意中增加人们对虚假信息的相信，从而弊大于利。我们分析了一项调查实验，该实验采用了三种不同的广告，直接针对 "假新闻"。我们发现，所有广告都能有效提高人们对 "假新闻 "标题的怀疑态度。我们还发现，没有证据表明出现了逆火效应。然而，使用贝叶斯加性回归树（BART）进行的后续分析发现，这些处理效果存在显著的异质性。虽然所有广告都有效，但尽管主题和内容相同，每个广告的效果却各不相同。这表明人们对反误导过程的理解更为复杂，也凸显了 BART 在舆论研究中的实用性。

引用次数: 0

Deceptively Stable? How the Stability of Aggregate Abortion Attitudes Conceals Partisan Induced Shifts 具有欺骗性的稳定？总体堕胎态度的稳定性如何掩盖党派诱导的转变

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231222883

Melissa Deckman, Laurel Elder, S. Greene, M. Lizotte

The 2022 Dobbs decision, striking down constitutional protection for abortion, sent shockwaves through the American political system. For the 50 years prior, however, public opinion on abortion was distinctive for its stability, with almost the same percent of Americans supporting legal abortion in the twenty-first century as in the 1970s. This stasis persisted during a period of dramatic change in the political landscape. We employ General Social Survey (GSS) data to explore the ways that partisanship, as well as demographic and attitude changes among key groups, have contributed to underlying shifts in abortion attitudes and, on an aggregate level, the appearance of stability. We show that demographic changes combined with meaningful attitude change balance each other out leading to deceptive stability. We also show the growing power of partisanship as a predictor of abortion attitudes for both Democrats and Republicans, especially Republican women, who have become more opposed to legal abortion than Republican men. Our findings provide a baseline for understanding abortion attitudes in post-Roe America and insights as to where continuity and change can be expected.

2022 年多布斯案的判决推翻了宪法对堕胎的保护，在美国政治体系中引起了震动。然而，在此之前的 50 年中，公众对堕胎的看法一直保持稳定，21 世纪支持合法堕胎的美国人比例几乎与 20 世纪 70 年代相同。在政治格局发生巨大变化的时期，这种稳定性依然存在。我们利用一般社会调查（GSS）数据，探讨了党派之争以及主要群体的人口和态度变化如何导致堕胎态度的根本转变，以及在总体上如何导致表面上的稳定。我们的研究表明，人口变化与有意义的态度变化相互平衡，从而形成了具有欺骗性的稳定性。我们还表明，党派作为民主党和共和党人堕胎态度的预测因素，其作用越来越大，尤其是共和党女性，她们比共和党男性更反对合法堕胎。我们的研究结果为了解《罗伊法案》颁布后美国的堕胎态度提供了一个基准，并为预期连续性和变化提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

Correcting Myopia: Effect of Information Provision on Support for Preparedness Policy 矫正近视：信息提供对备灾政策支持的影响

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231221486

Nicholas Weller, Thomas Jamieson

Some scholars argue that the public is generally myopic in their attitudes about disaster preparedness spending, because they prefer to spend money on disaster response rather than preparedness, despite the greater cost effectiveness of the later. Given voters’ general lack of policy information, it is possible that limited support for preparedness comes from lack of information about its efficacy. In this paper, we build on these studies by examining how people respond to new information about the effectiveness of policy initiatives in the context of public health and the COVID-19 pandemic. Through two online survey experiments with over 3400 respondents, we demonstrate that information can lead people to update attitudes about preparedness, illustrating the potential for information campaigns to increase support for preparedness policies. Our results suggest that information about the efficacy of preparedness can increase support for these policies, and the information effect exists even for individuals whose prior beliefs were that public health programs were ineffective. These results suggest that information can make people more supportive of preparedness spending, which could provide electoral incentives for its provision. We conclude by providing some directions for future research to enhance our understanding of public opinion and preparedness spending.

一些学者认为，公众对备灾支出的态度通常是近视的，因为他们更愿意把钱花在救灾上而不是备灾上，尽管后者的成本效益更高。由于选民普遍缺乏政策信息，因此对备灾的有限支持可能是由于缺乏有关备灾效果的信息。在本文中，我们以这些研究为基础，研究了在公共卫生和 COVID-19 大流行的背景下，人们是如何对有关政策措施有效性的新信息做出反应的。通过对 3400 多名受访者进行的两次在线调查实验，我们证明了信息可以引导人们更新对防备工作的态度，从而说明信息宣传活动有可能增加对防备政策的支持。我们的研究结果表明，有关备灾效果的信息可以增加人们对这些政策的支持，即使是那些之前认为公共卫生项目没有效果的人，信息效应也是存在的。这些结果表明，信息可以使人们更加支持备灾支出，从而为提供备灾支出提供选举激励。最后，我们提出了一些未来研究的方向，以加深我们对公众舆论和备灾支出的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Decider in Chief? Why and How the Public Exaggerates the Power of the Presidency 首席决定者？公众为何以及如何夸大总统的权力

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231218676

Scott Clifford, D. J. Flynn, Brendan Nyhan, K. Rhee

Democratic accountability requires that citizens accurately attribute credit and blame to leaders and institutions. However, citizens tend to simplify politics by personifying the state as its leader and directing credit and blame accordingly. Using an expert survey and a five-wave public panel survey spanning two administrations, we contrast public and expert perceptions of presidential power. We demonstrate that the public exaggerates the president’s powers relative to scholarly experts and that people who exaggerate presidential powers most are more likely to attribute blame to the president. However, a change in partisan control of the presidency shifts perceptions of power among partisans. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of similar shifts in belief after salient policy failures. These results provide the most direct evidence to date that citizens generally exaggerate the president’s influence and control but that these beliefs change over time in response to events.

民主问责制要求公民准确地将功过归于领导人和机构。然而，公民倾向于简化政治，将国家人格化为领导者，并据此归功于领导者。通过一项专家调查和一项跨越两届政府的五波公共面板调查，我们对比了公众和专家对总统权力的看法。我们证明，相对于学者专家，公众夸大了总统的权力，而最夸大总统权力的人更倾向于将责任归咎于总统。然而，党派对总统职位控制权的变化会改变党派对总统权力的看法。最后，我们发现了一些暗示性证据，表明在突出的政策失败之后，人们的信念也会发生类似的转变。这些结果提供了迄今为止最直接的证据，表明公民普遍夸大了总统的影响力和控制力，但随着时间的推移，这些信念会随着事件的发生而改变。

引用次数: 1

Listen to Me: Quality of Communication and Intergenerational Political Socialization 听我说：沟通质量与代际政治社会化

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231220025

Jeremy D. Mayer, Molly W. Andolina, Robert J. McGrath

Intergenerational political socialization is alive and well in the polarized American polity. But, by what mechanism do parental views transmit to children? We develop a theory ( dyadic social learning theory) which posits the importance of dyadic familial communication in facilitating attitudinal concordance between parents and children. Using original survey data of 1,048 dyadic pairs of American parents and middle school-aged children, we develop a novel measure of political perception that combines the perceptive accuracy of parents with the perceptive accuracy of their children. This measure of parent-child alignment, which we argue signals quality communication in families, is a powerful determinant of parent-child congruence on political views and emotions, particularly polarization. When a dyadic pair accurately perceives each other politically, the likelihood of congruent views and shared polarization increases. This research has implications for how we understand political transference of polarized views, and for broader theories of how children are socialized into the political world. It also suggests that solutions to polarization will have to address the role of parents in initiating polarization.

在两极分化的美国政体中，代际政治社会化的现象十分普遍。但是，父母的观点是通过什么机制传递给子女的呢？我们提出了一种理论（双亲社会学习理论），认为双亲家庭沟通在促进父母与子女态度一致方面具有重要作用。利用对 1,048 对美国父母和初中生子女的原始调查数据，我们提出了一种新的政治观念测量方法，将父母的认知准确性与子女的认知准确性结合起来。我们认为，这种衡量亲子一致性的方法是家庭中高质量沟通的信号，是亲子政治观点和情绪（尤其是两极分化）一致性的有力决定因素。当一对父母在政治上准确地看待对方时，观点一致和共同极化的可能性就会增加。这项研究对我们如何理解两极分化观点的政治转移以及儿童如何社会化进入政治世界的广泛理论都有影响。它还表明，解决两极分化问题的方法必须解决父母在引发两极分化中的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Jobs and Punishment: Public Opinion on Leniency for White-Collar Crime. 工作与惩罚:公众对白领犯罪从宽处理的看法

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231176211

Simon St-Georges, Vincent Arel-Bundock, André Blais, Marco Mendoza Aviña

Governments routinely offer deals to companies accused of white-collar crimes, allowing them to escape criminal charges in exchange for fines or penalties. This lets prosecutors avoid costly litigation and protects companies' right to bid on lucrative public contracts, which can reduce the likelihood of bankruptcies or layoffs. Striking deals with white-collar criminals can be risky for governments because it could affect the perceived legitimacy of the legal system. This article explores the conditions under which the general public supports leniency agreements. Building on theoretical intuitions from the literature, we identify three characteristics that could affect mass attitudes: home bias, economic incentives, and retribution. We conduct a survey experiment in the United States and find moderate support for leniency agreements. Whether the crime occurs on US soil or abroad does not affect public opinion, and the number of jobs that would be jeopardized by criminal prosecution only has a small effect. Instead, survey respondents become much more supportive of a deal when it includes criminal charges for the corporate managers who were personally involved in the alleged wrongdoing. In the court of public opinion, punishing a handful of individuals appears to matter more than saving thousands of jobs.

政府通常会向被控白领犯罪的公司提供交易，让他们逃避刑事指控，以换取罚款或处罚。这使检察官可以避免昂贵的诉讼，并保护公司竞标利润丰厚的公共合同的权利，这可以降低破产或裁员的可能性。与白领罪犯达成交易对政府来说可能有风险，因为这可能会影响法律体系的合法性。本文探讨了公众支持宽大处理协议的条件。基于文献中的理论直觉，我们确定了可能影响大众态度的三个特征：家庭偏见、经济激励和报复。我们在美国进行了一项调查实验，发现对宽大处理协议的支持程度适中。无论犯罪发生在美国本土还是国外，都不会影响公众舆论，刑事起诉会危害到的工作岗位数量也只会产生很小的影响。相反，当交易包括对个人参与指控不法行为的公司经理的刑事指控时，调查对象变得更加支持交易。在舆论法庭上，惩罚少数人似乎比挽救数千个工作岗位更重要。

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引用次数: 0

Suspicious Minds: Unexpected Election Outcomes, Perceived Electoral Integrity and Satisfaction With Democracy in American Presidential Elections. 怀疑的头脑:意外的选举结果，感知选举的完整性和对美国总统选举中的民主的满意度

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231166679

Philippe Mongrain

A great amount of research has noted the existence of a gap between election winners and losers in relation to perceptions of electoral fairness and satisfaction with democracy. One aspect of the winner-loser gap that has been overlooked is the impact of citizens' expectations about election outcomes on these attitudes. More precisely, how do citizens react to unexpected defeats and victories? Are individuals on the losing side less critical of the electoral process or dissatisfied with democracy when they recognize beforehand that their favourite party or candidate was likely to be defeated? Does experiencing a surprise victory lead to a boost in perceived electoral integrity or democratic satisfaction? To answer these questions, I use data from the 1996, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020 ANES. While there is little evidence that expectations exert a major influence on post-election attitudes, outcome unexpectedness seems to have decreased confidence in the vote counting process among losers, independents and even winners in the 2020 election. The results show the considerable influence that fraud claims and conspiracy theories can have on public opinion when elected officials and candidates push a consistent story line of electoral malfeasance and corruption in an effort to denigrate political opponents.

大量研究表明，在对选举公平性的看法和对民主的满意度方面，选举获胜者和失败者之间存在差距。被忽视的赢家和输家差距的一个方面是公民对选举结果的期望对这些态度的影响。更确切地说，公民对意外的失败和胜利有何反应？当输方的个人事先意识到他们最喜欢的政党或候选人可能会被击败时，他们是不是对选举过程不那么挑剔，或者对民主不满？经历一场意外的胜利会提高人们对选举诚信或民主满意度吗？为了回答这些问题，我使用了1996年、2000年、2004年、2012年、2016年和2020年ANES的数据。虽然几乎没有证据表明预期会对选举后的态度产生重大影响，但结果的出乎意料似乎降低了2020年大选中失败者、独立人士甚至获胜者对计票过程的信心。结果表明，当当选官员和候选人为了诋毁政治对手而推行一贯的选举渎职和腐败故事时，欺诈指控和阴谋论可能会对公众舆论产生相当大的影响。

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引用次数: 1

Party Affiliation in the Southern Electorate 南方选民的党派归属

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231218734

Seth C. McKee

This article chronicles and analyzes the changing state of party affiliation in the American South from the 1990s to the present. Party identification (PID) is examined with data from three survey sources: the American National Election Study (ANES), Cooperative Election Study (CES), and Exit Polls (national and state-level). Emphasis is placed on the changing PID patterns of white, Black, and Hispanic voters South-wide and in individual states. The findings strongly suggest that the current position of Republican electoral dominance will persist for some time to come, though there are multiple reasons why, in certain parts of the South, Democratic affiliation will likely increase.

本文记录并分析了 20 世纪 90 年代至今美国南方政党归属的变化情况。文章利用三个调查来源的数据对党派认同（PID）进行了研究：美国全国选举研究（ANES）、合作选举研究（CES）和退出民调（全国和州一级）。重点放在整个南方和各州白人、黑人和西班牙裔选民不断变化的 PID 模式上。研究结果强烈表明，目前共和党在选举中占主导地位的局面将在未来一段时间内持续下去，尽管在南方的某些地区，民主党的支持率可能会上升，但这是有多种原因的。

引用次数: 0

“You Had Better Mention All of Them:” Race and Gender Effects in Election Loss Narratives "你最好把他们都提到："选举失利叙述中的种族和性别影响

IF 2.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Research Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-11-21 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231217511

P. Haines, Seth Masket

A common explanation for Hillary Clinton’s loss in the 2016 presidential election was that she catered to minorities at the expense of the broader electorate. How does such a loss narrative influence voters' interpretation of subsequent elections? In a conjoint experiment, white and Black Democratic respondents were randomly exposed to a vignette that ascribed Democrats’ 2016 losses to their focus on identity politics. This narrative had an asymmetric effect on attitudes toward the 2020 election based on both race and gender. While it had no impact on white men’s or Black women’s understanding of why the Democrats lost the last presidential election or their candidate preferences for the next, it had a substantial impact on the electoral attitudes of white women and a moderate impact on those of Black men. Specifically, it shifted their support away from candidates committed to gender and racial equity and toward those emphasizing broad economic policies. The identity politics loss narrative thus may have acted as a self-fulfilling prophecy that advantaged white male candidates in the 2020 election.

对于希拉里-克林顿在 2016 年总统大选中的失利，一种常见的解释是，她迎合了少数群体，牺牲了更广泛的选民。这种失利的说法会如何影响选民对随后选举的解读？在一项联合实验中，民主党的白人和黑人受访者随机接触到一个小故事，将民主党在 2016 年的失利归咎于他们对身份政治的关注。根据种族和性别，这种叙述对 2020 年大选的态度产生了不对称的影响。虽然它对白人男性或黑人女性理解民主党在上届总统选举中失利的原因或他们对下届总统选举候选人的偏好没有影响，但它对白人女性的选举态度产生了重大影响，对黑人男性的选举态度产生了适度影响。具体来说，它使他们的支持从致力于性别和种族平等的候选人转向了强调广泛经济政策的候选人。因此，身份政治失利论可能是一种自我实现的预言，在 2020 年大选中对白人男性候选人有利。

引用次数: 0

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